Hi All! Taking another day off from MLB to get more organized in baseball data etc. I’ll have plays tomorrow, and a few leans are below.
NBA Picks:
Heat 1Q under 25.5, 1 unit
Celtics TT over 107, 1 unit
Heat/Celtics over 207.5, 1.5 units
Every game has eclipsed tonight’s total and I think Monday’s contest might have the best chance for some explosive offense. Here’s why:
1) Boston WILL get fouls called.
2) Miami’s defense was tremendous in game 3 and Boston still shot pretty well. With how banged up these players are today, it’s reasonable to expect some positive regression on offense and perhaps a little less clanging/banging on defense.
3) I expect the Celtics to attack early and often and therefore provide an uptick in pace. We’ve seen Miami chase another team’s pace before, and that pushes up points.
4) The Celtics historically go up and down in their 3-point shooting efficiency and since they couldn’t do much in game 3 (12/32), I think it’s a better result tonight.
I’m including the Heat under in the 1st quarter as a hedge of sorts but also because I think they could start out really cold. Herro, PJ, Butler, Strus, and Lowry are all banged up in various ways. Boston has their aches and pains too but they need this game more. Regression based purely on changes in motivation are a thing.
Total on this game has come down from the overnight of 218.5 to 217 in some books despite majority of tickets and money to the over in the market. 217 brings us right to the season average between these two in Dallas on the season, but with the line moving in Dallas’ favor, I believe this game plays more to the Dallas pace of play. Dallas was 23rd in scoring on the season and is 1-5 O/U in these playoff games at home. I like Dallas today at home where their fans have propelled them to a 5-1 SU and ATS record in the playoffs as well. The total coming down despite 74% of the money on the over has me taking a harder look at the under in this one for a small play.
Join my Patreon for daily plays including a Sunday Night Baseball play. The Patreon is in the green 4 of L6 months, +29 units.
Sunday Card up with the NHL West Conf. GAME Of The YEAR and a Highest Rated 6* Perfect System NBA and in MLB Our ESPN Total of the Month. Comp play below.
The MLB is on the NY. Mets at 3:10 eastern. The Mets lost the 2nd half of the double header last night and are on a powerful 12-1 run off a loss. They have T. WalKer going and he has won his last 2 starts at Coors and he takes on Gomber who has allowed 8 runs in his last 2 starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets fit a last game of a series system and we will back them to take the rubber game. Rob V-
HEY – a positive day in MLB, what do ya sayyyyy! Gonna shut up and march on; still feeling sharp in the NBA playoffs, but let’s see if we can keep that going. It almost feels fake that we’re hitting at 58% – the playoffs are TUFF.
NBA Picks (60-44, 58%, +11.25 units):
Mavs 1Q -1.5 (-115), 1 unit
Warriors/Mavs 1H under 111.5 (-110), 1.5 units
Mavericks full game -3 (-110), 1.5 units
Well this is the Mavericks’ spot. Golden State came back in admirable fashion in game 2, Steph put on a show, and the Chase Center crowd gave them every boost they needed. But we know how Dallas plays at home – they’re 5-1 ATS on their court and in those 5 games they covered, they covered by an average of 15.4 point margins. That’s astounding. Expect the best effort from the Mavericks and if they’re controlling the game at home, it should go tremendously slow. Staying away from the full game under since Golden State has a knack of pushing the pace when they’re in comeback mode.
Props: Luka over 33.5 points (-113), 1 unit
Spencer Dinwiddie over 10.5 points (-120), 1 unit
Jalen Brunson over 20.5 points (-113), 1.5 units
Brunson is fantastic at home, Dinwiddie will be needed at home against the Warriors small ball lineup, and why wouldn’t Luka put on his best effort/performance at home, too? Luka’s prop is probably the one I like least, that’s a high total, but for God’s sake it’s Luka!
MLB Picks (44-50-1, -9.06 units):
Passing on MLB today. A lot of big favorites who I would “like” to bet on, but if I try another parlay something tells me it won’t happen. Sundays are weird. Here are my leans:
We have ten, that’s right TEN! matches that all kick off at 11am est, Sunday. To say a lot is at stake is an under statement. We have Man City and Liverpool still fighting to see who will win the league, with LVP 1 point behind MC. Tottenham looking to remain in the top 4, while Arsenal is lurking for the 4th spot. Lastly, Leeds United and Burnley both tied with 35 points on the table, playing for their lives to not be relegated for next season. This is going to be EPIC, let’s get paid tomorrow.
Current Soccer Record: 64-72 +2.74 Units
Arsenal ML (-290) 2 Units
I absolutely DOGGED Arsenal on Twitter Monday after their horrendous performance against Newcastle. However it is a new day and a new week and I LOVE them here. They are home facing an Everton team who is comfy cozy on the table with a 4 point lead from the clubs facing relegation. I don’t see them being too interested in the season finale match compared to Arsenal who still has an outside chance at cracking the top 4. Bounce back week here for Arsenal, as Everton celebrated their come from behind victory last week.
Brentford ML (+140) 1 Unit
Love the hype Leeds will bring to fight and get out of relegation, but I feel this is just too tough of a spot for them on the road. Brentford has shown better form in recent matches and putting my money on Leeds I always feel like I am playing from behind. Gotta like the home value here.
Brighton/Westham Over 2.75 (-102) 1 Unit
Two middle of the road clubs that will hold nothing back, I really believe goals will come pouring in this one…. perhaps this hits even before the first half is over.
Burnley ML (+125) 1 Unit
This line is screaming Burnley. Newcastle just DESTROYED Arsenal at home and now are +229 dogs on the road to BURNLEY! I am taking Burnley here… it’s gross, but that line is off in my opinion. Burnley holds off relegation and will be back next year.
Leicester City ML (-120) 2 Units
Southampton has packed it in and is looking to regroup for next year. Last 5 matches they are 0-1-4. Leicester has at least been showing up 2-1-2, with a draw last week to Chelsea. Point is they are at home, why not give the home crowd a nice send off with a solid win over a club that has completely lost the little identity they tried to obtain this season.
I think that this race should be pretty cut and dry. Epicenter has proven to me in the Kentucky Derby that he is a deserving favorite, and I think that he takes this one home. In saying that, there is a Philly in this race that won the Kentucky Oaks named Secret Oath that could make some noise. She is good but not great. I won’t use her for 1st except in an exacta saver. Being that I went with a Tim Yakteen/Baffert horse in the Derby, I do not want to go away from the big price on Armagnac, being that this stalker has improved his Beyers by a nice jump to 93 in his last race. My strategy is simple. Going with the chalk, but I will have a few saver tickets.
Total ticket $192
Ticket Number – 10639935
Ticket Time – 2022/05/21 10:48:08 AM
Straight
Pimlico, May 21, Race #13
8
Epicenter
1st $10 2nd $10 3rd $10
3 bets
Ticket total $30
This ticket was saved successfully. Keep this information for your records.
Ticket Number – 10639936
Ticket Time – 2022/05/21 10:48:08 AM
Trifecta
Pimlico, May 21, Race #13
1st[8] – 2nd[2, 4, 7] – 3rd[2, 4, 7]
6 bets @ $5
Ticket total $30
This ticket was saved successfully. Keep this information for your records.
We went 1-1 (0.6% ROI) with top play Astros cashing last night and are back today with 2 premiums for clients and have one of them below for all! Best of luck if you tail!!
Sign up NOW before you miss out on my Discounted MLB Totals Monthly Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
The Minnesota Twins and the Oakland Athletics are going to be taking on one another again as these two teams conclude their three game series. Oakland is 16-23 this season and are currently 14-22-3 to the under on the year. The Twins are 21-16 overall this season with a 13-21-3 over-under record. Minnesota has an over-under record of 2-6-2 in their last ten games played. The Twins are starting right handed Sonny Gray. The Twins righty has very good strikeout stuff and Oakland is ranked towards the bottom of the MLB for strikeouts per game as a team as well as total runs scored. The A’s are 7-12-1 to the under at home this season inside of the O.Co Coliseum. The Athletics are starting Daulton Jefferies who has seen a total of 20 plate appearances against him by this current Twins roster; Jefferies owns a .233 xwOBA, .232 expected batting average, a 1.74 FIP and an 87.7 MPH exit velocity. Sonny Gray holds a K% over 20% against the Athletics current roster. Gray has also held the current Oakland roster to a low exit velocity as well as a small 9.4 launch angle and a .245 xBA. In the two previous games of this series, there have only been 11 combined runs. Take under 7.5
I gave back 0.71u last night but am still +7.4u over the past 9 days! I’m rolling with 3 MLB plays for tonight looking to add to that tally. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group! I will also be live on Twitter and YouTube at 12:30 PM CT to discuss today’s slate.
*MLB(1u): Giants/Rockies OVER 11(-110)–2:10 PM CT
I have had a great feel for this Rockies team all year(+9.97u in Rockies games this year). The Over has cashed easily each of the past two nights, and while today’s pitching matchup might look good on paper, I think this is a bad spot for each arm. Giants SP Logan Webb was phenomenal at home last year(sub 2.00 ERA), but his numbers plummeted once he got out of Oracle Park(4.08 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). This year, he holds an ugly 1.33 WHIP and is striking out only 6.1/9 innings, indicating something is off with the righty arm. The Rockies offense is a juggernaut at home, scoring well over 6 runs/game at Coors Field. In addition, the 6th/7th/8th/9th inning arms in the Giants bullpen have thrown each of the past two days, so we are unlikely to see a high caliber arm out of the Giants bullpen today. With all that said, Rockies SP Kyle Freeland has been shelled routinely this year, including in his last start where he allowed 12 hits to the measly Royals lineup. I was surprised to see the Giants actually finished 2nd in OPS against lefties on the road last year, and aside from Brandon Crawford, this lineup has fared well against Freeland in the past. The Rockies bullpen ranks last in bullpen WHIP and is an easy unit to fade in my opinion. I think you can make a case that there is some value on the Rockies today, but if the last two nights have taught us anything, the better play is to just trust each offense and bet the Over.
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(-105) vs Padres–5:45 PM CT
Blake Snell vs Zack Wheeler might look like a heavyweight pitching matchup, but I think Wheeler has the clear advantage entering tonight. Wheeler’s one blowup start in Miami greatly skew his numbers this season; in my mind, he’s one of the best arms in the game. He held fantastic numbers at home last year(2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 10.8 K/9) and will get an easier matchup than you’d think. While the Padres excel against lefties, this lineup ranks just 24th in the league in OPS vs righties(.645). Padres SP Blake Snell had great numbers at Petco Park last season, but he had some of the worst road numbers in the league(6.12 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 6.3 BB/9). Citizens Bank Park gives a clear advantage to hitters, and the Phillies rank 3rd in OPS vs lefties this year. This is also Snell’s first start of the season, so he can’t be expected to be at his sharpest right out of the gate. The stars seem to be aligned here for the Phillies to jump out to an early lead in this game. I’ll isolate the first 5 innings because I want no part of that Phillies bullpen in the later innings.
*MLB(1u): Mets F5 -0.5(-120) vs Cardinals–6:10 PM CT
It’s Max Scherzer day in Queens! Much like Wheeler, Scherzer is one the easiest pitchers for me to trust in the league, and a WHIP at 0.91 this year is a strong indicator that Mad Max is still his dominant self. He threw 7 shutout innings against this Cardinals lineup at the beginning of the season, and given St Louis struggles against right-handed pitching, I’m inclined to trust him today. Cardinals SP Jordan Hicks is a talented arm, but he is much more suited for the bullpen than this starter’s role. Hicks has a lively fastball, but walking 5 batters/9 innings is not a sustainable way to succeed. The Mets have been a clear Top 10 offense in baseball this year, and given they have Scherzer on the bump, a run or two could be all we need. While the full game run line offers a bit more value, I don’t want to be involved with either bullpen given these teams played a doubleheader yesterday. Rather, I’ll isolate the F5 and take advantage of the matchup that clearly favors NYM.
It’s become a hump-day tradition to release a free pick so why the heck not again today! The Conference Finals are here and we like a side in today’s contest between the “surprising” (we’re not surprised) Mavericks and the veteran Warriors! Check it out!
We’re 52-40 (57%) in the NBA Playoffs– If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here!
Mavericks +5 (-110), 1 unit: We got this at +5.5 but I still like it at 5. The two best teams in the West, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors, duke it out in game 1 tonight at the Chase Center in San Francisco. Before we break down why we favor Dallas tonight, let’s look at some of the playoff stats from both of these teams thus far:
Warriors:
Offensive Efficiency: 114.3 (6th)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (6th)
Assist %: 66.4 (1st)
Effective FG %: 56.4 (2nd)
3 Point %: 37.6 (4th)
PPG: 114.2 (1st)
Points Allowed: 110.2 (11th)
Point Differential: +4 (4th)
Mavericks:
Offensive Efficiency: 114.5 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6 (6th)
Assist %: 50.1 (15th)
Effective FG %: 54.9 (4th)
3 Point %: 38.5 (3rd)
PPG: 106.2 (10th)
Points Allowed: 101.9 (3rd)
Point Differential: +4.3 (3rd)
As always, statistics need to be considered with context. The Warriors faced high paced, high-octane offenses against Denver and especially against Memphis. The Mavericks play at a molasses-in-January pace (aka… SLOW) and faced two teams in Utah and Phoenix that are happy to proceed just as leisurely. This matchup is very interesting in more ways than I have time to explain here, but here are a few of the angles I’m taking a deeper look at:
Who controls the pace? Golden State is averaging 100 possession per game, which is an average NBA regular season tempo, while Dallas is only averaging 92.50.
Which team will have more perimeter success? The Mavericks faced tougher defenses and still shot better than the Warriors from beyond the arc in their first two series.
Strength of opponent – what can we take from each team’s first 2 series? In my opinion, Dallas had the tougher road, and most of that is because of 2021 Western Champ Suns. Few believed they could beat Phoenix, led alone by a 33 point margin to close the series.
Will Dallas overly rely on Luka Doncic or will Luka facilitate an offense that’s starting to find it’s rhythm? If it’s the latter, Dallas is extremely dangerous.
That last question is probably the biggest one. The Dallas Mavericks are sensational when at least two of Luka’s supporting cast members play above average offensive basketball. In game 7, it was Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson. In other contests it was Dorian Finney Smith, Reggie Bullock, or even bench players like Davis Bertans and Maxi Kleber who gave a huge boost. By what we’ve seen from the Mavericks in the regular season, especially against Golden State, they’re in rhythm and I expect the same success tonight.
This series will be won by the guard positions. Both teams have formidable but unexceptional big men on offense, creating a series that will be won or loss by “small ball.” We saw a similar situation in the Dallas/Phoenix series. When Ayton was above-average, the Suns coasted. When he wasn’t, they had issues. One thing Dallas has over a lot of teams is their size. Luka is a huge point guard at 6’7″, Brunson is small but thick and feisty, Spencer Dinwiddie is a solid 6’5″, and Dorian Finney Smith and Reggie Bullock are more physically imposing than Otto Porter, Klay Thompson, or Andrew Wiggins. A finesse team like the Warriors can get easily overwhelmed by the kind of physicality the Mavs offer.
Dallas will want to mimic what they did to Phoenix – outmuscle, annoy, and out-shoot their opponent from the perimeter. I think they can have a ton of success in those areas. The fact that Golden State hasn’t seemed very sharp at times this postseason only makes me like Dallas more. The Mavericks have some momentum after that huge win against the Suns, and this doesn’t feel like a team that’s going to let up on defense. Jason Kidd has instilled a blue-collar culture in Dallas and clearly it’s working; I think they ride that wave into game 1 and at least keep this close. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright, either.
The angle that no one thought would happen, happened — Boston came out inspired and aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, and ultimately that set the pace of the entire game and pushed up the total. Will these totals drop in future games? I think so, but that was interesting to see. Miami seems more than willing to play by the other teams’ rules when their opponent ups the tempo. Something to watch moving forward.
MLB are you fucking kidding me? Know your role, shut your mouth and be normal would ya? Onto the picks- happy hump day peeps!
NBA Picks:
Game 1: Mavericks +5.5, 1.5 units
Mavericks/Warriors 1Q under 53.5 or 54, 1.5 units
These two squads are built very similarly. Dallas has an insane ability to slow down the pace of these games early – we saw that in many of the Suns/Mavs contests and it should work even better against the small-ball offense of Golden State. Plus let’s be honest, the Warriors seem to always start slow and finish great, especially when they’re not extensively motivated. Love the first quarter to start slow and I don’t think either of these defenses will have much issue slowing down the other team. They match up well – Draymond vs. Luka, Brunson vs. Curry, etc. Look to live bet an under if the game starts fast and get used to a lot less points in both of these series. These defenses should thrive, and because we expect slow, defense-oriented games, we can’t not take Dallas after that massively impressive win at Phoenix.
Curry under 27.5 points (-121), 1.5 units
Spencer Dinwiddie over 11.5 points (-121), 1 unit
Curry had a great game 7 but he hasn’t been the same in these playoffs and to his credit, he hasn’t needed to be in superstar mode; not with Poole and others contributing as often as they are. Dinwiddie caught a stride in the final few games of the conference semifinals and we think that carries into today. Dallas will need him to continue stepping up.
Game 2: Heat -4, 1 unit
The Celtics came out looking really impressive in the 1st half of Game 1. Then Jimmy said nut uh and Boston’s clear exhaustion started to set in. Ime Udoka looked shocked to see his team getting out-muscled throughout the contest, and I hate for Boston that Smart and Horford could continue to miss time (Horford especially, COVID, woof). Miami is very comfortable at home and they play extremely tenacious basketball on defense. It was steal-city for a solid 5 minutes of the 3rd QTR and the game felt over after that point. Expect Miami to carry that momentum into game 2 and out-pace Boston again. For now, we’re staying away from the total.
MLB Picks:
MLB Parlay (1 unit to win 3.06 units)
Blue Jays + Rays + Yankees + Dodgers win – superior pitching, most of these teams are at home, and they’re all facing non-playoff teams from last season.
Giants/Rockies under…
JUST KIDDING. No matter what side I play in this game, I’ll probably lose. Coors Field can kiss my white ass, for now…
LA Angels -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
I’ll take Ohtani and an ambitious Angels squad against Dunning all day, plus this feels like a fantastic spot for LAA to get off the short schneid.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
