We had a disappointing 0-2 Wednesday where we once again lost by the hook on the Braves TT. I’m rolling with 2 plays for tonight looking to bounce back and carry some momentum into the weekend. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(+110) vs Yankees–5:10 PM CT
After a doozy of a series in Yankee Stadium last weekend, we’re in for another treat this weekend. While the Yanks found a way to split that 4 game set last weekend, they were outplayed and overmatched in each of the 4 games, going 16 innings without a hit at one point. While the offense managed to put up some runs in this week’s series vs the Athletics, they failed to eclipse the 8 hit mark in any of those 3 games. I still wouldn’t say this offense is in very good current form. Astros SP Luis Garcia has been extremely reliable for the Astros this season(1.07 WHIP); while his home ERA sits at 5.18, his WHIP at 1.09 is an indicator he’s run into some tough luck at his home ballpark. Garcia held a 2.39 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at Minute Maid last season, and I think he’s capable of holding down this Yanks lineup tonight.
Yankees SP Luis Severino pitched well against the Astros last weekend, but he enters this game at a heavy disadvantage; pitchers having to face the same lineup for the second straight time is one of the hardest spots in baseball. We saw the Astros take advantage in this same spot earlier this week, crushing Mets SP Carlos Carrasco for 6 runs in just 4 innings. After a slow start, the Astros have really started to get the bats hot at Minute Maid, entering tonight with a league-leading 150 wRC+ in their home ballpark this month. One note: Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña collided late in yesterday’s game and both had to leave the game. I would say Alvarez took the worst of that exchange, but from my eyes, Peña should be able to play today. I’m comfortable playing on the Astros even without those two guys, although I’d like at least one of them in the lineup.
I give the Astros the slight edge in the bullpen. They needed Ryan Pressly in the 9th inning yesterday but are overall much fresher than the Yanks’ pen. Yankees closer Clay Holmes will almost certainly be unavailable after throwing 38 pitches over the past two days. I’ll take my chances with the Astros in the later innings as the Yankees have to stretch roles in the back-end of their ‘pen with Aroldis Chapman still out.
*MLB(1u): Mariners -1.5(-105) vs Athletics–9:10 PM CT
The Athletics will be overmatched facing off against Mariners SP Logan Gilbert tonight. Gilbert has had an impressive sophomore campaign for Seattle, carrying a 2.44 ERA and 1.09 WHIP into tonight’s start. He holds a sub-1.00 WHIP in his home ballpark and has recorded 5 scoreless outings on the season. The A’s rank 29th in wRC+ vs righties this season and (as you might expect) have had no success stepping up in competition.
The Mariners offense was in a bit of a rut entering last night’s game, but they erupted for 11 hits and 9 runs in a blowout win. They’ll get an easy matchup today facing rookie SP Adrian Martinez. With this being Martinez’s 2nd big league start, we need to dip into his minor league numbers. Last year in AAA, Martinez recorded an ugly 5.28 ERA and 1.52 WHIP; this year in Triple A, it was much more of the same(5.63 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). By my estimation, Martinez is in the big leagues out of necessity, not because he deserves to be.
The Mariners also hold a MAJOR edge in the later innings. Seattle’s bullpen ranks 3rd in bullpen WHIP, while the Athletics’ bullpen ranks 28th in that same category.
You’re probably pissed about MLB. So am I. I’ve been super confident in my plays the last two days so to see those results has my mind spinning. I’ll be reducing our exposure for a little and redirecting our funds to other opportunities. Then maybe we’ll have more plays in the near-future. For now, MLB can kiss my hairy white ass.
MLB Picks:
Twins +134, 1 unit
The Twins are finally showing some consistency, Archer has done a great job limiting runs lately, and Bieber doesn’t look like himself in June. Great value here on the road dog to keep on winning.
SD/LAD under 8 (-120), to win 1 unit
Musgrove is San Diego’s ace and the Padres can rarely rely on their offense, especially against elite bullpens. Mitch White has been more consistent and against average offenses, he’s looked very solid. Like an under.
Wimbledon Picks:
Karolina Pliskova (-115 to -150 live), to win 1 unit
Harriet Dart (+275), to win 2.75 units
Have you seen the way this chick plays tennis? She’s absolutely locked in right now and we think she has as good a chance as any of upsetting Jessica Pegula. Pegula has a strong arm and she’s motivated by a family emergency that nearly kept her out of this tournament, but this line is inflated and I’m not sure she knows what’s coming. Dart played mistake-free tennis in the 1st round and her returns are phenomenal.
Iga Swiatek -8 (-125), to win 1 unit
Iga Swiatek 4-0 after 4 games (+185), to win 1.85 units
Speaking of being “in the zone,” Swiatek exploded onto the scene this year and won the French Open. Her opponent today should give her little issue, and something like a 6-0, 6-1 result is likely.
Denis Shapovalov -2 (-120), to win 1 unit
This young man has championship potential and he showed it last year when he went 1-1 with Nadal in the Australian Open. I think he wins with authority this morning.
CFL Picks:
BC Lions -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Everyone and their brother touted how wrong this line was when it came out as BC -4.5 but now it’s been moved down way too much. It’s the start of the season and we realize that Ottawa is a good team at home, but the Lions have been incredibly explosive on offense and I’m not sure the Redblacks can keep up. Is this a situation where the books had it wrong OR did the dorky number dudes who think they know everything about “bad lines” just over-assert themselves here? I’ll take advantage of the movement.
Foreign Basketball Picks:
FIBA World Cup: China vs. Australia over 157, to win 1 unit
Both of these teams hold an offensive advantage in this contest, with China being the far superior 2-point shooting team and Australia being a way better option from beyond the arc. Against an unfamiliar opponent, we’re betting the under.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have a HUGE show for you today! NFL analyst Ross Tucker @RossTuckerNFL from The Even Money Podcast, and the Circa Millions 5th place champion Chris Farley from The OddsBreakers comes on to break down some NFL season win totals and futures! First, Kiev talks about his upcoming vacation to the north woods of Wisconsin with the family. Then, Ross and Chris come on and get right into some NFL football. The guys go from division to division giving out some leans, and some huge plays for the 2022 football season. After that, Kiev talks some UFC 276 with some leans and some plays for your weekend sports betting pleasure. Should you have any questions, please reach out to us @TheOddsBreakers on twitter!
Please sign up for our FREE MMA CLASS that Kiev O’Neil will be teaching on July 14th 2022! Go to www.SportsWageringU.com for more information and our registration page.
If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit BetRivers.com and use the affiliate code, “Odds22” to get a 100% sign up bonus up to $250!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
We have a full MLB slate and have decided to give out 2 of our 5 Premium Plays for today! We are 36-22 (15% ROI, +$7,020) in our last 58 #MLBPicks and look to add to it tonight!!
Get my Premium Packages HERE, including monthly all access, the rest of MLB season and College Football Early Bird Special and/or any of our handicappers here at the OddsBreakers!
Wrigley Field continues to welcome the Cincinnati Reds as they face the hometown Chicago Cubs tonight under the lights. The Reds will send out rookie right-hander Hunter Greene while the Cubs will counter with lefty Justin Steele. Some could say Greene has had a rude awakening in the big leagues, owning a 5.66 ERA and 5.71 FIP in 70 innings pitched this season. Although the rookie has be striking guys out at a high clip, his Achilles heel is allowing base runners and giving up homeruns. Greene ranks dead last with a 2.57 HR/9 out of 113 starters that have pitched at least 50 innings this season. The Cubbies starter owns a 1.33 WHIP, .268 BABIP and 4.35 xFIP at home this season. After these 2 pitchers give way to their bullpens, look for a couple more runs to be scored as both pens rank in the bottom third of the league in WHIP, FIP and runs scored over the past month. Specifically, the Cubs bullpen has allowed 91 runs this month! The second highest is the Marlins with 68. Cincy ranks 5th worst. The Reds have been in the middle of the pack offensively all season and of late but could take advantage of Chicago’s mediocre defense. The Cubs come into this one ranked in the bottom third in errors but, offensively, own a top 10 wOBA over the past week and month. This shows potential to be a double digit total. Take Over 7.5
The White Sox of Chicago are in Anaheim to face the Los Angeles Angels in a rubber match at Angel Stadium tonight. In the first 2 games of the series, they have averaged 11 runs per game. Tonight, the White Sox will go with right hander Michael Kopech to hone the mound. He owns a 3.21 ERA, .310 opponent wOBA, 1.25 WHIP, 1.29 HR/9, .271 BABIP and 4.21 FIP (exactly 1 run higher than his ERA). Does that mean regression in around the corner? Maybe…or did it already start? In his past 5 starts, Kopech has posted a 5.23 ERA, .325 opponent wOBA, 1.31 WHIP and 5.51 FIP while still owning a very lucky .236 BABIP. I expect the negative regression to continue tonight. The Angels are going with last year’s MVP, Shohei Ohtani. The righty has been good at home this season, posting a 2.45 ERA, 0.85 and 2.65 FIP but does have a very lucky .238 BABIP. In 12 starts this season, Ohtani has only gotten past the 6th inning three times and thats what we are banking on in this one. Why? because the bullpens can give up a good amount of runs in this one, especially since the pitching has been taxed in the past 2 games. In the past month, both pens rank 21st and 22nd in ERA and 21st and 23rd in opponent batting average. Unlike last season, the ChiSox are scoring more on the road (4.33) than they are at home (4.11) while the Angels are the opposite scoring 4.37 runs at home compared to 3.97 on the road. If the White Sox bats can force Ohtani out of this game before the 7th inning, this total will get close to 9. Take Over 7.5 runs
A 1-1 Tuesday brings me to 2-1, +0.9u on the week. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to add to that. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Braves TT OVER 4.5(-110) vs Phillies–6:05 PM CT
After being one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season, Phillies SP Ranger Suarez has regressed back down to what he truly is: a back-end, below average major league starter. In 14 starts this season, Suarez holds an ugly 1.48 WHIP; not only is Suarez allowing over a hit per inning, but he has also developed an issue with walks. Suarez is walking 4.8 batters per 9 innings in his home ballpark this season and sees his WHIP jump up to 1.73 at Citizens Bank Park. This bodes horribly facing an Atlanta lineup that has mashed left-handed pitching all year. On the road this season, the Braves rank 3rd vs lefties in both OPS(.829) and wRC+(129). Suarez allowed 5 runs in 4.1 innings in Atlanta earlier and allowed 10 baserunners in that start; I’m expecting a similar line tonight. We also have insurance with the Phillies bullpen being one of the worst in the league(23rd in bullpen WHIP). We saw the Phillies give up a run in each of the final 2 innings in last night’s loss; the simple reality is that this bullpen doesn’t have the jimmies and joes to match up with top-of-the-line orders like the Braves. At a standard number and price, I feel comfortable backing the Braves offense tonight in a role they’ve excelled in.
*MLB(1u): Rockies F5 TT OVER 2.5(-105) vs Dodgers–7:40 PM CT
Dodgers SP Julio Urias has rounded into form over his last 4 starts and will almost assuredly be an All Star, but he is entering an environment that he has struggled in throughout his career. Urias allowed 4 runs apiece in 2 of his 3 starts at Coors Field last season, and in his lone start at Coors this season, he allowed 6 runs and 8 baserunners in just 2 innings pitched. The Rockies are hitting lefties as good as they ever have, particularly in their home ballpark. Colorado ranks 2nd in OPS vs lefties at home(.891) and just put up 6 runs on lefty Clayton Kershaw last night. While playing against sub-3.00 ERA pitchers is not a great universal strategy, Coors Field offers a unique, outlier environment. With the Rockies welcoming a well-known lefty masher in Kris Bryant back into their lineup, I feel comfortable about how Colorado matches up with Urias in their home ballpark. I’ll isolate the F5 due to the Dodgers’ bullpen being a top 5 unit in the league, but I do think the full game TT hits as well.
Well besides the Guardians and our live tennis bet, yesterday sucked. But what should we expect from a damn Tuesday? Nothing. Hump days are better.
MLB Picks:
TB Rays under 3.5 runs (-110), to win 1 unit
Jalen Beeks has been very solid in 31 innings and with a 3.41 xERA and 3.14 xFIP, his marks shouldn’t regress too far against a Milwaukee lineup that’s struggled all year. June hasn’t been kind to Eric Lauer and I’m not sure what’s going on with him so I don’t trust playing the full game under. Beeks and a formidable bullpen should limit the Milwaukee offense.
Yankees -2.5 (+110), to win 1.1 units
The Yankees have no issue hitting lefties even though some marks might tell us different. Their average isn’t all that good but they’re #1 in MLB with 40 home-runs against lefties, 4th in hits and 3rd in RBIs.
Nationals -0.5 (-105), to win 1.5 units
Paulo Espino has been one of the only positives for the Nats this season, averaging a 1.77 ERA the last two months. Keller is “okay” but allows way too many walks and Washington’s lineup can hurt opponents when given the chance. Like the Nats early.
Mets ML +117, to win 1.17 units
Verlander is still considered an ace, but how good is he really? Against superior hitting teams, not so hot. Of course he did well against the Yankees last week, but he’s allowed 15 runs in his previous four starts and when he’s faced feistier offenses like Seattle and Toronto, he gave away 11 runs in 18 innings. Walker’s last few performances have been sharp, allowing only 5 runs in 18 innings and producing 24 strikeouts in the same span. I’m playing on the home dog to win again.
DET/SF over 8 (-115), to win 1 unit
Alex Wood has fallen off and we don’t trust him, even against a Detroit team with a subpar offense. He’s permitted 14 hits and 12 runs in his last 12 innings, YIKES. And Rony Garcia can’t hold onto command to save his life. Over it is.
Wimbledon Picks:
Rudd/Humbert (live) over 42.5 (-110), 1 unit
Djokovic/Kokkinakis (live) over 26.5 (-115), 1 unit
Sinner/Ymer under 36 (-120), 1 unit
Jessica Pegula ML (-125, live), 1 unit
Foreign Basketball Picks:
FIBA World Cup: China vs. Australia over 157, to win 1 unit
Both of these teams hold an offensive advantage in this contest, with China being the far superior 2-point shooting team and Australia being a way better option from beyond the arc. Against an unfamiliar opponent, we’re betting the under.
The AFC South – The AFC South was the bottom feeders of football divisions in 2021 thanks mainly to Jacksonville who had a headcase for a coach, and the Houston Texans who had a coach that couldn’t coach, or even understand some the rules and strategies of the game. It also didn’t help that the Colts were very injured on defense/skill positions for the majority of the season. The Titans were able to capitalize on all of this and secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Unfortunately it didn’t work out too well when the Bengals came into their house and beat them in the divisional round of the playoffs. The NFC South plays AFC West which is hard and they play the NFC East which is medium. Let’s see what we can expect out of the worst division in football.
1. Indianapolis Colts –
Vegas win total: 9.5 juiced to the over -140
2021 Wins: 9
Pythagorean Wins: 9.92
Schedule: Easy – at large @ New England, vs Pittsburgh, @ Minnesota
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: G Mark Glowinski, QB Carson Wentz, S George Odum, DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, G Chris Reed, RB Marlon Mack, WR Zach Pascal, LT Eric Fisher, WR TY Hilton, CB Xavier Rhodes
Key additions: QB Matt Ryan, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Nick Foles, CB Brandon Facyson, FS Rodney McLeod,
Whom they drafted: WR Alec Pierce, TE Jelani Woods, T Bernhard Raimann, S Nick Cross and a bunch of bums
Summary: I must say, that I thought my Colts over 9.5 wins last year was the closest thing to a lock when they had two games left vs the Raiders and @ Jacksonville. The funny thing about this team is that everyone said that that season win total was toast when they started their season injured, and at about week 13, everyone jumped on the over. Anyways, I have to put some blame on Frank Reich for blowing their last two games and I also have to blame Carson Wentz who hasn’t showed much since his first two seasons in Philadelphia. I must say that I really like the bold move that they made in trading him to get Matt Ryan. I mean, why not? Now my issue with Matt Ryan is that he hasn’t been all that good himself since his super bowl year with Kyle Shanahan as his coordinator, but I still have to give them an upgrade here at the quarterback position. The Colts also had to shed some good talent to make cap room on the roster. The Colts Pythag was about 10 last year and that is what the market is telling you. I am right on that number but I also think that their schedule is tricky.
My Number: 9.96
Action – No Play
Indianapolis Colt’s Power Rating: 3.5
2. Tennessee Titans –
Vegas win total: 9 juiced to under -120
2021 Wins: 12
Pythagorean Wins: 10.33
Schedule: Medium Hard – At large games @ Buffalo, @ Green Bay, vs Cincinnati
Schedule Last Year: Medium Easy
Key losses: WR AJ Brown, G Roger Saffold, G David Quessenberry, LB Rashaan Evans, TE Anthony Firsker, WR Julio Jones, CB Jenoris Jenkins, RT Kendall Lamm
Key additions: TE Austin Hooper, T Jamarco Jones, S AJ Moore
Key Draft Picks: WR Treylon Burks, CB Roger McCreary, T Nicholas Petit Frere, QB Malik Willis, RB Hassan Haskins, TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, WR Kyler Phillips
Summary: I have to say that the playoff game that was lost to the Bengals at home this year was from the result from a pretty bad game plan by coach Vrabel. The Titans got away from what they do best from using misdirection and allowing Tannehill to get some chunks of yards on his feet when needed instead of trying to throw 50/50 balls through needle holes in the seam. Now it is easy to see that the Titans were quite fortunate playing in a bad division, and they are kind of like the Bengals in the fact that they beat the best teams in the NFL and lost to the worst. That Houston game was last year was just putrid. I think that Tennessee’s Pythagorean win total at 10.33 helps demonstrate that. Looking at 2022, the Titans had to trade maybe their best player in AJ Brown to the Eagles to get a number 1 draft choice. What do they go with? A wide receiver in Traylon Burks. Now Ryan Tannehill hated this move and it is easy to see why, but to be completely honest, this ended up being a great long term move for this team. AJ Brown and his agent demanded to be the highest paid wide receiver, and when you are a run first team like the Titans, you can’t afford to blow your whole franchise on a guy who will be double covered. I also like their pick in Traylon Burks from Arkansas who has NFL size and break away speed to take it to the house. Another good thing for Tennessee is that they had bad fumble luck last year being -5 in the random luck stat. We have to adjust some for that as well. This team did lose a decent amount in free agency but I don’t think it is extreme and I remain luke-warm on this team like I was at the end of last year. Let’s just hope that coach Mike Vrabel has learned from some of his errors.
My Number: 9.34
Action: Lean over
Tennessee Titans Power Rating: 1.75
3. Jacksonville Jaguars –
Vegas win total: 6 juiced to the over – 120
2021 Wins: 3
Pythagorean Wins: 4.2
Schedule: Medium Easy – at large vs New York Jets, vs Baltimore, @ Detroit
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach Urban Meyer, ILB Myles Jack, G Andrew Norwell, WR DJ Chark, G AJ Cann, OLB Damien Wilson, DE Arden Key, DT Taven Bryan, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Nevin Lawson
Key additions: Coach Doug Peterson, OC Press Taylor, WR Christian Kirk, G Brandon Sherff, LB Foyesade Oluokun, CB Darious Williams, DT Foley Fatukasi, WR Zay Jones, TE Evan Engram, DE Arden Key
Key Draft Picks: Edge Travon Walker, LB Devin Lloyd, C Luke Fortner, and a bunch of dudes
Summary: Welp, Urban Meyer lasted about half the season last year and now he is free it hit up some college Kegger parties, and grind with as many chicks and he pleases. Super Bowl Champion Doug Peterson is taking this team over and while it is certainly an upgrade. I still think that he was overrated and much of his success at the eagles was thanks to Frank Reich who just happens to be coaching in his division. This will make some interesting story lines this year. I do like the fact that he hired former assistant Press Taylor who also was under his and Frank Reich’s system over the past 8 years or so. I think when looking at the Jaguars, you can’t ignore the talent on this team and they did have two big wins last year vs the Bills and we can’t forget how they finished the year taking the Colts out of the playoffs. The Jaguars were also a bit injured coming into the season and had some bad fumble luck. I have to think that this team will certainly be improved from last year, and might shock some people.
My Number: 6.6
Action – Lean Over
Jacksonville Jaguars Power Rating: -6
4. Houston Texans –
Vegas win total: 4.5 juiced to the under – 120
2021 Wins: 4
Pythagorean Wins: 4.01
Schedule: Hard – at large @ Chicago, @ Miami, vs Cleveland
Schedule Last Year: Easy
Key losses: Coach David Culley, S Justin Reid, OLB Jake Martin, QB Tyrod Taylor, S AJ Moore, RT Marcus Cannon, RB David Johnson
Key additions: CB Steve Nelson, G AJ Cann, DE Mario Addison, OLB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, DE Rasheem Green, QB Kyle Allen and a bunch of bums.
Key Draft Picks: CB Derek Stingley Jr, G Kenyon Green, S Jalen Pitre, WR John Metchie III, LB Christian Harris and some dudes
Summary: Doesn’t it feel like Kyle Allen just goes from crap team to crap team? Never forget last year under Coach David Culley that the Texans were facing a 3rd and 15, they ran a play and picked up 13 yards setting up a 4th and 2, but the Browns were called for offsides and the Texans had a choose between 4th and 2, or 3rd and 10. What did they do? They chose 4th and 2 then proceeded to punt the ball away. My head seriously hurt after that. Now the big problem this year is that they hired Lovie Smith whom I thought couldn’t get another power five college coach job much less in the NFL! As a Bears fan, some of us realized that it wasn’t Lovie who was responsible for their super bowl appearance. Anyways, this team has decided to not take a shot at a quarterback and it is probably a good idea because next year’s class looks amazing and getting the 1st pick of the draft would be outstanding. Maybe there is some reason why Lovie was hired there in the 1st place? I do not like this team’s draft and they have a very hard schedule ahead of them. This team would be doing themselves a favor not win this year and my number is 3.13 wins. My problem is that if they are at four wins by the last game of the season, the Colts may have clinched the division by then and won’t be able to help their playoff seeding like the Bengals last year. They could bench their starters while the Jaguars easily get to five. No play.
My Number: 3.13 wins
Action: Strong Lean Under
Houston Texans Power Rating: -8.5
*Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team
What a run we’re on! We caught Matthew Fitzpatrick (30-1) at the US Open and we followed it up with Xander Schauffele (22-1) at the Travelers Championship. I was fortunate enough to go Saturday and what a venue. It’s a fun course that’s perfectly designed for fan interaction coming down the stretch.
Let’s start with this, Sunday was a sweat. We saw Xander go off with a one stroke lead over Patrick Cantlay heading into the final 18. From the start Cantlay struggled and after nine holes it was clear he wouldn’t be Xander’s main competition. Kevin Kisner, J.T. Poston and, amatuer Michael Thorbjorsen showed flashes Sunday but, it was ultimately Sahith Theegala who gave Xander a run for the title. Heading into 18, Theegala had a one stroke lead but, after making double bogey, it was Schauffele’s tournament to lose. He would go on to bomb a drive and stick a wedge to a few feet to capture his first individual PGA Tour win in three years.
We now move onto the John Deere Classic, a tournament that’s not known for having the strongest of fields. Understandably so as most of the worlds top players are headed overseas in preparation of The Open. We’ve seen some longshots win this event in the past few editions, so let’s see if we can find that guy.
Tournament Information:
Dates: June 30th, 2022 – July 3rd, 2022
Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
Course: TPC Deere Run
Course Type: Midwest
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,289 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 156 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: L-93 bentgrass .100″
Fairways: Southshore bentgrass .400″
Rough: Kentucky bluegrass / fescue 4″
Stimpmeter: 12 ft.
Purse: $7,100,000 / $1,278,000 Winner
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 76
Water Hazards: 3 (In-Play on 3 Holes)
Average Green Size: 5,500 sq. ft.
Course Scoring Average:
2021: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 41 of 51
2019: 69.51 (-1.49), Rank 35 of 19
2018: 69.38 (-1.62), Rank 46 of 51
Historic Cut Line:
2021: -4
2019: -3
2018: -3
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: D.A. Weibring (1999)
Renovation(s): PGA Tour (2006/2007)
Comparable Courses:
TPC River Highlands – Travelers Championship (Results)
Saturday: Mostly Cloudy 74 F, 7 mp/h E, 59% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Sunday: Mostly Sunny 75 F, 7 mp/h E 62% Humidity, 20% Chance of Rain
Course/ Tournament History:
The John Deere Classic, then known as the Quad Cities Open began in 1971 as a “satellite event” for the PGA Tour. A year later, it became an official PGA Tour event.
From 1971 to 1974, the event was played at Crow Valley Country Club. Following that, it moved to Oakwood Country Club where it was held until 1999. At the turn of the century, TPC Deere Run became the host site.
This tournament is also part of the Open Qualifying Series. It is the final chance for a player not already exempt, to earn entry into the Open if he finishes in the top five. Since 2008, the John Deere Classic has sponsored a charter flight that leaves the Quad Cities post tournament and lands in Britain the following day.
History was made here back in 2013, when nineteen year old Jordan Spieth became the first teenager to win on the PGA Tour since 1931.
In 2021, Lucas Glover birdied five of his last seven holes to win the John Deere Classic. Prior to that, his last win on the PGA Tour was at the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2011. Glover became just the seventh player to win in the 2000s, 2010s, and 2020s.
After the John Deere Classic wrapped up last year, the course underwent a major renovation. The $1.8 million dollar project involved new tee boxes (No. 1), the reconfiguration of numerous bunkers and, provided the course with a better drainage system.
Something else to note is that five of the last ten winners at TPC Deere Run captured their first win on the PGA Tour. Also since to 2012, four of the last nine John Deere Classics have come down to a playoff.
72-Hole Record: 257, Michael Kim (2018)
18-Hole Record: 59, Paul Goydos (1st Round, 2010)
Most tournament wins: 3; D. A. Weibring (1979, 1991, 1995) & Steve Stricker (2009, 2010, 2011)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 that plays 7,289 yards. The course features, four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. Looking back at past winners, it’s been a mix of players who’ve found success. It’s a course that requires birdies, and lots of them. At TPC Deere Run, the landing spaces off the tee are open and the greens are large, so a hot putter will be the difference this week.
Starting with the Par 3’s, two of the four play 200+ yards, No. 7 and No. 12. Half of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par last year with those being No. 3 and No. 12. Hole No.7 had a scoring average just below par, 2.998.
Out of those two Par 3’s with a scoring average over par, No. 3 is the most difficult. Hole No. 3 is uphill and plays longer than the 186 yards listed on the card. Off the tee the entire putting surface isn’t visible so players may not see where their shot lands. A set of bunkers guards the green on the right while the left has long rough. The green slopes front to back making the correct club selection even more difficult.
Holes 2, 10, and 17 are the three Par 5’s at TPC Deere Run. All of these holes had a scoring average below par last year.
No. 2 had the most eagles and birdies recorded on it last year. It’s listed at 561 yards but given the downhill tee shot, it plays much shorter than that. A good drive off the tee will allow players to attack this green in two. The green is very well protected so players may elect to layup in the secondary landing area and have an easy approach shot.
Hole No. 10 had the highest scoring average of all of the Par 5’s last year. It makes sense, as it’s also the longest playing nearly 600 yards. Off the tee it’s not overly difficult but as players get closer to the green the hole gets more difficult.
Out of the eleven Par 4’s at TPC Deere Run, six of the holes had a scoring average over par last year. The most difficult hole was No 9 that had an average of 4.276 strokes.
Hole No. 9 is also the longest Par 4 on the course playing over 500 yards in length. It’s a narrow hole that features an elevated green protected by bunkers on either side.
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Par 4 Scoring: 400- 450 Yards
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Birdie or Better %
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Course History
The Field/ Odds:
As I mentioned before, this event is historically known for having a weak field. The highest ranked player in the mix this week is Webb Simpson who’s 58th in the OWGR. Defending champion Lucas Glover is in the field this week and will look to become the first to successfully defend his title since Steve Stricker (’09,’10, ’11).
Webb Simpson (+1200), is the odds on favorite this week to win the John Deere Classic. He’s played here three times with his last appearance coming in 2010. In his debut he missed the cut but, finished T39 in 2009 and T21 in 2010. Last week at TPC River Highlands, Webb finished T13. Including the Travelers Championship, his finished inside the top-27 in three of his last four starts.
Adam Hadwin (+1600), returns to TPC River Highlands for the first time since 2016. He’s played in this event twice, finishing T18 in 2015 and T8 in 2016. Hadwin enters the John Deere Classic in decent form making the cut in his last four events. In his last Tour appearance, he finished T7 at the U.S. Open.
Sahith Theegala (+2500), was one hole away from possibly winning the Travelers Championship last week. He’s made the cut in each of his last six tournaments with two top-5 finishes during that span. Given his performance last week, his odds have dropped since they first came out. This week, he’ll be making his debut at the John Deere Classic.
Denny McCarthy (+2500), enters the John Deere Classic off a missed cut at the Travelers Championship. Before last week, he has finished inside the top-10 in his last two starts. In his three appearances at TPC Deere Run, he’s missed the cut twice.
Previous winners in the field; Lucas Glover (’21), Dylan Frittelli (’19), Ryan Moore (’16), Zach Johnson (’12), and Steve Stricker (’09,’10, ’11).
Notable Withdraws: K. Aphibarnrat, K. Kitayama, S. Bae, D. Riley, J.J. Spaun, D. Berger, S. Stricker
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
Horses For Courses:
Lucas Glover (+4500), has played in the John Deere Classic twelve times before. In his last three starts at TPC Deere Run, he’s finished 25-10-1. Glover has made the cut in his last four starts on Tour.
Adam Schenk (+5000), makes his fourth appearance at the John Deere Classic this year. In his three starts prior, he missed the cut in his debut (2018), but finished T6 in 2019 and T4 in 2021. Last week at the Travelers Championship, Schenk missed the cut. Prior to that, he finished T26 or better in his last two starts.
Zach Johnson (+10000), has played in the John Deere nineteen times, the most of any player in the field. He’s had tremendous success here winning back in 2012 and finishing inside the top-5, six other times. Last year, he finished T34.
Ryan Moore (+10000), won this event back in 2016 and finished runner-up last year. In addition to those two placements, he has finished inside the top-10 two other times. On Tour, Moore has made the cut in his last four starts.
Scott Brown (+12500), has played in the John Deere Classic nine times before. Out of those nine starts, he’s finished inside the top-25 seven times. In Brown’s nine starts on Tour thus year, he has missed the cut four times and never finished better than 35 (Zurich Classic).
Wesley Bryan (+20000), makes his first appearance at TPC Deere Run since 2018, when he missed the cut. In his two other starts at the John Deere, he finished 8th in 2016 and 3rd in 2017. On Tour, Bryan has missed the cut four times in his last six starts.
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2021: Lucas Glover (-19)
Price: 55-1
2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Dylan Frittelli (-21)
Price: 90-1
2018: Michael Kim (-27)
Price: 300-1
2017: Bryson Dechambeau (-18)
Price: 55-1
2016: Ryan Moore (-22)
Price: 25-1
Picks (Outright):
For picks this week, it’s all about looking at the positives. This is a field that doesn’t have a lot of players with tremendous upside. Despite the easy course and weak field, it’ still extremely difficult to win on the PGA Tour. In order to do that, pretty much everything has to go right as well as getting a few bounces your way. This week in particular, don’t let anyone sway you off a player as anything can happen, especially at TPC Deere Run.
Cameron Davis (+4500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.18 to win 8.10 Units
Cameron Davis has played in the John Deere Classic twice, finishing T53 in 2019 and T55 in 2021. Since missing the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, Cameron Davis has been playing some pretty good golf. He finished T48 at the PGA Championship, T7 at the Charles Schwab Challenge, T53 at the Memorial, and T56 at the Travelers. Last week at the TPC River Highlands, he shot sub-70 in the first two rounds before falling off on the weekend.
The main weakness’ in his game revolve around the green. Davis ranks 138th in SG: ATG and 95th in SG: Putting. He’s gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts and in two of his last four around the green. His approach play has been great gaining strokes in eight of his last nine starts. Overall, Davis has seen TPC Deere Run a couple of times before and given the way his play has been trending, he should have shot this week.
Cameron Champ (+5500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
In terms of recent form, Cameron Champ has been awful missing the cut in his last four stars. He’s played in the John Deere twice, missing the cut in his debut and finishing T11 last year. When we look at comparable courses, TPC Twin Cities is one that sticks out. In 20201, Cameron Champ won the 3M Open by two strokes. Champ’s best finish this year was the Mexico Open, where he finished T6. That was another short course that had an extremely weak field.
He’s currently number one on Tour in terms of Driving Distance and we’ve seen bombers have success here prior. If we can limit his approach shots and play well off the tee, he may just have a shot. In those last four missed cuts he’s lost strokes putting but, in his two most recent tournaments that he’s gained strokes putting, he finished T6 and T10. While his recent form hasn’t been encouraging at all, I do like the course comps as well as the course history.
Doug Ghim (+6000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.14 to win 8.40 Units
Last week at TPC River Highlands Doug Ghim struggled, missing the cut. He wasn’t great with his approach play which has been a common path to success at the Travelers. Prior to that, he finished T18 at the RBC Canadian Open and T60 at the Memorial. He made his debut at the John Deere Classic last year and finished T18. He was supposed to play in 2018 but withdrew.
Even through he struggled last week with his irons, it’s oddly been the best part of his game ranking 49th in strokes gained. Ghim isn’t long off the tee but he is very accurate ranking inside the top-50. The main areas of concern for him is his short game and putting. If we look at his most recent performances, he’s gained strokes on the green in his last two tournaments. In last year’s tournament he did lose strokes putting with his approach play carrying him.
Adam Svensson (+6500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.13 to win 8.45 Units
He comes into the John Deere Classic in great form making the cut in his last five starts on Tour. In his last two events, he’s finished inside the top-25 (Canadian Open & Travelers). Svensson has played in the John Deere Classic once before back in 2019 where he finished T18. For course comps, he finished T15 at the 3M Open (2019) and T25 at the Travelers (2022).
The main weakness’ in his game revolve around the green. Davis ranks 153rd in SG: ATG and 144th in SG: Putting. However, he’s gained strokes on the green in each of his last four starts. In terms of around the green, he’s gained strokes in three of his last five events.
Martin Laird (+7000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.40 Units
Martin Laird has played in the John Deere Classic three times before. He finished T29 in 2008, T37 in 2019 and, T28 in 2021. Last week, Laird finished T13 at the Travelers Championship shooting three sub-70 rounds. Prior to that, he’s missed the cut in two of his last three events. However, the one tournament he did make the cut in (Canadian Open), he placed T37.
In terms of strokes gained categories, Laird’s main weakness has been his putting. His putting hasn’t been great losing strokes on the green in his last five tournaments. If we go back to last year, he did gain strokes putting at TPC Deere Run last year.
Hank Lebioda (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Hank Lebioda will make his third appearance at the John Deere Classic. In 2019, when he made his debut, he missed the cut. However, in last year’s tournament he finished 8th gaining over a stroke on the green. He’s made the cut in his last two events, finishing T28 (RBC Canadian Open) and T56 (Travelers Championship).
He struggles off the tee ranking 171st in strokes gained. Lebioda is also towards the bottom in terms of distance but, has been fairly accurate with the driver. His approach game is decent with putting being the main area of his game that he excels at. This event has turned into a putting the contest the past few renditions, so that should help him. The one concern for him is that he did come into this tournament last year in better form.
Longshots that missed the card:
Nick Taylor (80-1), Ryan Moore (130-1), Andrew Landry (300-1), Kevin Tway (320-1)
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.82 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Chez Reavie (+260) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 2.60 Units
Chez Reavie is coming off a T8 finish at the Travelers Championship last week with all four rounds under par. Prior to TPC River Highlands, he finished T27 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s played in the John Deere Classic nine times before finishing inside the top-20 in three of those rounds. One of those top-20 finishes was last year when he placed T18. His best finish at TPC Deere Run was T5 back in 2011.
The best part of his game is his approach play, where he ranks 59th in strokes gained. He’s not great off the tee in terms of distance but, ranks 3rd on Tour in accuracy. Putting is the main concern for him as he ranks 171st in strokes gained. However, he’s gained strokes in three of his last five starts on the green. His recent form has been great and given the weak field, I’m hoping he continue that upward trend on the green to compete.
Adam Schenk (+240) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.40 Units
Adam Schenk makes his fourth appearance at the John Deere Classic this year. In his three starts prior, he missed the cut in his debut (2018), finished T6 in 2019 and T4 in 2021. Last week at the Travelers Championship, Schenk missed the cut. Prior to that, he finished T26 or better in his last two starts.
When looking at his strokes gained across the board, his best category is putting. However, when we look at his past few starts, it’s been his worst. In his last three tournaments he’s gained strokes in every category besides putting. He’s lost strokes on the green in two of his last three events. When he finished T6 in 2019, he also lost strokes on the green but in 2021 he gained 1.84 strokes. Given this recent play and course history, I think he has a great shot of finishing inside the top-20.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Tyler Duncan (+180) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.80 Units
Outside of last years finish, Tyler Duncan has played very well at TPC Deere Run. He made his debut back in 2018 and finished T12. In 2019, he finished T26 and last year he missed the cut. He’s playing much better golf this year with five top-20 finishes in twenty-one starts. Last year, he only had two top-20 finishes in thirty-three starts. He’s also made the cut in three of his last four starts.
Tyler Duncan ranks inside the top-100 in every strokes gained category besides one, putting (162). However, he’s been putting much better as of late gaining strokes on the green in two of his last three starts.
Chase Seiffert (+220) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Chase Seiffert made his debut at the John Deere Classic last year and would go on to finish T28. Last year he had missed the cut in his two previous tournaments. This year, he enters the event in slightly better form. We last saw him at the U.S. Open where he missed the cut but prior to that finished T28 at the RBC Canadian Open. In his thirteen starts on Tour this season he’s made the cut in eight of those events including 4 top-25 finishes.
When looking at strokes gained categories, he ranks 36th in SG: Approach and 57th in SG: T2G. His main weaknesses are his play off the tee and putting. He’s not long off the tee but he makes up for it with his accuracy. Putting continues to be an issue as he’s lost strokes on the green in each of his last four starts. Last year at TPC Deere Run he only lost a quarter of stroke with the flat stick. He’s a longshot for a reason this week but with the course history and his recent form he should be able to sneak in the top-40.
Total Risk on Top 40: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the John Deere Classic: 4.82 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
I started the week with a 1-0 Monday and will look to add on with 2 more winners tonight. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Blue Jays F5 -0.5(+100) vs Red Sox–6:07 PM CT
Michael Wacha vs Ross Stripling might look like a pretty even pitching matchup, but I believe only Stripling’s early season success is sustainable. Stripling struggled as a Blue Jay last year because he got away from what worked; after delivering 4 straight sub-4.00 ERA seasons as a ground-ball pitcher, Stripling uncharacteristically delivered a 0.91 GB/FB rate last season and got crushed for it. His 2.36 GB/FB rate in 2022 is the highest of his career, and as such, he’s become a staple in the Toronto rotation, carrying a 3.08 ERA and 1.06 WHIP into tonight’s start. The Red Sox looked lost at the plate against Kevin Gausman last night and were shut down by Stripling in Toronto earlier this season. Red Sox SP Michael Wacha has drawn some favorable matchups as of late, but I think he will be one of the biggest disappointments in the second half of the season. Wacha is striking out just 6.6 batters per 9 innings but is being bailed out by leaving 85% of runners on base; this is not sustainable over time(unless you’re Robbie Ray in 2021, but how is that working out for him now?). His FIP is nearly 2 points higher than his ERA, a strong indicator that Wacha will regress over time. This is also a brutal matchup facing a Blue Jays offense that ranks 3rd in OPS and 6th in wRC+ in their home ballpark this season. The Blue Jays put up 9 runs and looked comfortable at the plate last night; I think they’ll dig in confidently against Wacha tonight. I see an edge for Toronto early in this game.
*MLB(1u): Brewers F5 ML(-110) @ Rays–6:10 PM CT
Rays SP Shane Baz has the potential to be an All-Star caliber arm in the coming years, but he is being WAY overpriced for an arm that has accumulated just 26.1 innings in the big leagues. Baz has looked great in both the minor and major leagues this season, but I think it’s premature to use that small of a sample to price him as a top-of-the-line pitcher. The Brewers offense can be underwhelming at times, but they’ve found a knack taking advantage of vulnerable young arms. Look no further than their numbers against Reds SP Hunter Greene this year. Additionally, the Brewers swung the bats very well in their series win over the Blue Jays this past weekend, tallying 19 runs across that 3 game set. I also believe we’re getting good value on Brewers SP Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff recorded back-to-back sub-1.00 WHIP seasons in 2020 and 2021 but got off to a slow start this year. He showed major progress in late May(we backed him multiple times) before he got hurt. While this is his first start back off the IL, he threw 5 innings in his last rehab start; workload shouldn’t be a major concern for this F5 play. The Rays really don’t present much of a threat at the plate, specifically against right-handed pitching. I was very underwhelmed with how the Rays handled a slew of vulnerable Pirates righties this weekend, and on the year, they rank just 23rd in OPS vs righties at Tropicana Field. Woodruff’s main struggle this year has been allowing the long ball, but thankfully the Rays rank in the bottom third of the league in both HR’s and slugging% this season. I like the value we’re getting on the Brew Crew early in this game.
