Home Blog Page 326

The 2022 Kentucky Derby Picks – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

The 148th run for the roses is finally here and we have a large pack of ponies bunched together with no clear favorite.   The good news is that it looks like the weather will be just fine today with a high around 68 degrees and mostly sunny.  My how that has changed over the past few days when we all thought that it would be a sloppy track.  The bad news is that this race doesn’t have the notorious trainer Mr. Bob Baffert attending this race based on his doping suspension yet his two horses will be running in this derby in Messier and Taiba under trainer (assistant coach) Mr. Tim Yakteen.   To make matters worse, there is a live conspiracy theory from these two horses from the Santa Anita derby that Messier held up at the end of his race to let Taiba cross the finish line in order to take first to get enough qualifying points to be in the Kentucky Derby.   This is where the handicapping really comes into play.   Let’s take a look at the two favorites.   Zandon is going off around 3-1 and Epicenter is at 3.5-1.  Zandon is a stone cold closer trained by Chad Brown who was beaten back in February in a shorter race by Epicenter.  He has shown great improvement in his last win therefore the reason for the price hike.  Zandon should love the longer distance here in the Derby.  Epicenter is trained by Steve Asmussen and this favorite has won his last four out of five races dropping only one back in January by a nose.  This horse is a front runner who has also shown great improvement since his only loss.   I like all for of these horses to hit the board, but I also like two other horses that have great prices that could bring in a nice payday if the favorites end up crapping out.    The 8 horse Charge-It is a Todd Pletcher horse who has only been raced three times, yet has performed very well placing twice and winning once.  His last race in the Florida Derby ended up with him getting bumped out to the outside, hurting his chances to win the race against White Abarrio.  Had this horse had a clean trip, he might have won this race.   Can’t ignore him at 20-1.   The next horse that I like is Cyberknife who is a Brad Cox horse that has improved every race since his blinkers came off back in March.   Jose Ortiz is the Jockey here and he comes with a lot of experience and is looking for his first Derby win.   Great Trainer, Great Jockey and Great win makes this horse very tempting at 20-1 as well.

My Strategy:
Being that I like 5 horses (Epicenter, Zandon, Charge-It, Taiba, and Cyberknife) it can be very expensive to try and go for a winning ticket using other price horses at the back end of a trifecta box.   Due to this, I think that I will have to go heavier on the Exactas to try and make some money from this race and sacrifice missing out on a larger combination.  Nothing is guaranteed in horse racing, and I can only hope that three of my six choices will all hit the board.   My top two horses that I am using are based on price and potential.  Charge it will go off better than 12-1 and Taiba has the best jockey as well as the most talent who should go off better than 8-1.   Gonna use the favorites as well due to the size of the derby pot.  Could hit twice on a few combos.  Here are my plays.

Total Ticket Cost $490
Play it for half if you like:  

Trifecta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[3, 10] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16]
40 bets @ $2
Ticket total $80
Trifecta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[8, 12, 16] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 16]
60 bets @ $1.00
Ticket total $60
Trifecta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[8, 12] – 2nd[3, 8, 10, 12] – 3rd[1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, 19]
66 bets @ $1.00
Ticket total $66
Exacta Box
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[3, 10]
2 bets @ $15
Ticket total $30
Exacta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[6, 8, 12, 16] – 2nd[3, 10]
8 bets @ $4
Ticket total $32
Exacta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[3] – 2nd[6, 8, 12, 15]
4 bets @ $5
Ticket total $20
Exacta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[10] – 2nd[6, 8, 12, 15]
4 bets @ $6
Ticket total $24
Exacta Box
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[1, 3, 8, 12, 16, 19]
30 bets @ $2
Ticket total $60
Trifecta Box
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[1, 10, 12, 15]
24 bets @ $1.00
Ticket total $24
Exacta Box
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[10, 15, 16]
6 bets @ $3
Ticket total $18
Straight
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
Charge It W/P/S $10 per
Taiba W/P/S $10 per
6 bets
Ticket total $60
Superfecta
Churchill Downs, May 07, Race #12
1st[12] – 2nd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12] – 3rd[3, 6, 8, 10, 12] – 4th[1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 12, 15, 19]
60 bets @ $.2
Ticket total $12

 

Best of luck everyone and remember to bet within your limits!

Premiums, 5.7

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

We’re comfortable with our overall plays for today, but I have some additional picks/leans. Let’s fucking WIN! Big day! Potentially exciting for our bankrolls… potentially… ha.

NBA Picks:
Bucks 1Q ML (-130), 1.5 units and
Bucks 1H ML (-125), 1.5 units and 
Bucks full game ML (-135), 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
Warriors -7, 1.5 units
I think this line is super sharp and has been – I had it at 7, it came out at -6.5, and now it’s at -7.5 at some books. So then why am I betting it? This is a CLASSIC smash spot for the Warriors. It’s game 3, they’re back at home, they just lost and allowed way too many Ja shots, and I expect them to be at THEIR BEST. This is something many handicappers wouldn’t like – betting on a game when your number is exactly where the books have it. But I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again and I think it’s why we did well on Circa – you cannot be afraid to take a bigger line if/when these rare situations occur. This is a fantastic setup for Golden State, win or lose, and I’m pulling the trigger.
 
Suns/Mavs under 215, 1 unit
We think this number will fall and fall after game 3 and for good reason – the Mavs, at home, controlling the tempo, turns out to be a pretty damn slow game, as we expected. This game will be VERY contentious as Phoenix looks to regain control but now Dallas has renewed confidence. Expect tenacious defense and hopefully not too many fouls.
Heat/76ers 1H under 107, 1 unit
A lot of the same reasons as above, I just like the 1H better. Miami CANNOT allow the same type of efficiency from Maxey and other non-Embiid/Harden players, and Philly played impressively on defense in game 3. I expect a slow, highly competitive start.
 
UFC Picks:
 
Oliveira/Gaethje over 2.5 rounds (+125), 1 unit

At this point both of these seasoned fighters understand how dangerous their opponent is. Both have the ability to end this fight early, but with the amount of respect they have for one another, I don’t see how they don’t approach it cautiously. That should eliminate round 1 and give us a buffer heading into round 2. Things tend to pick up in championship fights after the 2nd round, so I wouldn’t bet beyond that, but I love this to go further than the books expect.
Chandler/Ferguson goes the distance (+150), 1.5 units
If there’s one thing we know about Tony Ferguson, it’s that he’s really, really tough for any opponent to figure out. Despite being out of the octagon for a year, Tony has no shortage of confidence heading into this fight with one of the best lightweights to ever do it. Chandler is known for his superior wrestling ability, and obviously he could catch Ferguson at some point and score a submission or TKO – Chandler’s athleticism and explosiveness is insane. But I’d rather bet on a proven angle that we’ve seen occur so many times in Ferguson fights. “El Cucuy” (aka the boogeyman) is Ferguson’s nickname for a reason. He’s slithery, unpredictable, and incredibly resilient. And even though he’s on a 3-fight losing streak, look who he lost against: Dariush, Oliveira, and Gaethje – the best of the best. I think we see a fantastic fight here and Ferguson gives Chandler everything he can handle.
 
Norma Dumont by 3 Round Decision (-105), 1 unit
Dumont is a dynamic Brazilian striker with plenty of tools to overwhelm Chiasson throughout the contest. She’s only lost 1 fight and most of her wins, like most female fighters, have come by decision. This is a quality line for that result.
Melissa Gatto wins inside distance (+350), 1/2 unit
I may have a little bias here because Gatto has a pretty face, but don’t be fooled by her looks; this chick is aggressive and all of her last 3 wins have come before the final bell. Capable of beating her opponents in myriad ways, Gatto is undefeated in her pro career and I’m not sure Cortez should be favored. This should not be +350 so let’s take advantage.
Kentucky Derby Analysis: I’ll never claim to be anything close to a horse racing expert and no lie, typically I SUCK at making money on it. So I might as well just give you some other sources to consider.
MLB Picks: I don’t have any plays today in MLB – lots of doubleheaders and I’m more focused on the NBA and UFC (we might add some UFC plays too, stay tuned). Here are some ancillary thoughts and leans:
The Reds still suck.
The Dodgers (G1) are probably a great parlay leg today.
Blue Jays/Guardians (G1) over is good value.
Astros (G1) another good parlay leg.
Like Logan Webb and like SF.
The unders in MIA/SD and TB/SEA are probably a solid look.
Enjoy the day, people! –Chris

Rob V: Saturday MLB Power System Play + NBA East Conf. GOY + K.Derby Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-
Saturday card is up and backed with the NBA 100% Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year, and Afternoon Platinum Supreme Premier League total, the Kentucky Derby Analysis, MLB and a TOP 5* NHL Playoff Move. MLB Comp play below.
The MLB comp play is Baltimore Orioles at 7:05 eastern. Baltimore has won 13 of 17 here vs KC and the Royals fit the 1-17 system below that pertains to road dogs off a home dog shutout loss if they allowed 10 or more runs. The system is 0-11 if the opponent like The Orioles scored 3 or more runs in their last game. Hernandez for KC has a 6.00 Eras while Lyles for the birds has been good at home allowing just 2 runs in his last 2 home starts spanning 11 innings. KC has lost 9 of 11 as a road dog. Look for Baltimore to win. On Derby Day Saturday we have a Powerful analysis on the Run for the Roses. The NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year, a 5* NHL Top play, the MLB Card and Platinum Supreme Premier League Total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out all day and night. For the MLB Comp play. Go with the Orioles. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
SU:1-17-0
Team:2.61
Opp:5.72
Apr 16, 2004LinkFri2004awayTigersNate CornejoGuardiansCC Sabathia3-10-7L4.5O8-191-03-101708.59
Jul 02, 2004LinkFri2004awayRaysRob BellMarlinsCarl Pavano4-22W-2.0U14-81-04-21708.09
Oct 05, 2004LinkTue2004awayDodgersOdalis PerezCardinalsWoody Williams3-8-5L2.5O9-91-03-81558.59
Jun 17, 2008LinkTue2008awayAstrosBrandon BackeOriolesGarrett Olson5-6-1L1O8-120-05-6140109
Jul 28, 2008LinkMon2008awayRedsJohnny CuetoAstrosRoy Oswalt4-5-1L0.5O8-91-04-51358.59
Apr 23, 2010LinkFri2010awayPiratesPaul MaholmAstrosRoy Oswalt3-4-1L-0.5U4-71-13-41557.59
Apr 08, 2013LinkMon2013awayRaysJeremy HellicksonRangersAlexi Ogando4-5-1L0P7-81-14-514599
Apr 09, 2013LinkTue2013awayBlue JaysBrandon MorrowTigersAnibal Sanchez3-7-4L2O8-151-03-711589
Aug 30, 2013LinkFri2013awayCardinalsShelby MillerPiratesFrancisco Liriano0-5-5L-2U4-91-00-511579
Jul 18, 2014LinkFri2014awayAstrosScott FeldmanWhite SoxJose Quintana2-3-1L-3.5U3-70-12-31528.59
May 10, 2017LinkWed2017awayPadresLuis PerdomoRangersYu Darvish3-4-1L-1.5U10-81-03-41808.59
Aug 27, 2018LinkMon2018awayMetsNoah SyndergaardCubsJon Lester4-7-3L0.5O8-140-14-713210.59
May 03, 2019LinkFri2019awayMarinersYusei KikuchiGuardiansShane Bieber1-2-1L-5U8-40-01-214089
May 10, 2019LinkFri2019awayTigersTyson RossTwinsJake Odorizzi0-6-6L-3U3-71-00-620599
Jun 17, 2019LinkMon2019awayAstrosWade MileyRedsLuis Castillo2-3-1L-3.5U4-60-12-31108.59
Sep 10, 2020LinkThu2020awayTigersTarik SkubalCardinalsJack Flaherty2-12-10L8O5-120-02-1220067
Sep 21, 2020LinkMon2020awayMarlinsTrevor RichardsBravesHuascar Ynoa4-5-1L-0.5U9-80-04-51609.59
Jun 24, 2021LinkThu2021awayOriolesDean KremerBlue JaysAnthony Kay0-9-9L-2U7-101-00-9167119
May 07, 2022Linksat2022awayRoyalsCarlos HernandezOriolesJordan Lyles

The 2022 Kentucky Derby With Chris Fallica, Marco D’Angelo and Kiev O’Neil

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Please like our YOUTUBE channel below for more great interviews and Sports Betting shows!  Best of luck everyone!

 

The 2022 Kentucky Derby Contenders

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Here are my quick thoughts on every horse in the 148th run for the Roses and the greatest two minutes in sports.   My card will be out later this morning to pick apart.

1.  Moe Donegal 10-1 – Closer and closed well in the Wood Memorial, but I hate the number one spot especially for closers in a big field.  Back end use makes sense.
2.  Happy Jack 30-1 – Trainer Doug O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby twice, but this horse has no chance.  I will be happy to toss this horse off of my card.
3.  Epicenter 3.5-1 – Epicenter keeps improving.  He has won 4 of his last 5 races including the Louisiana derby with ease.   Epicenter looks like he can go the longer 1 & 1/4 distance, and he has beaten some of the competition here already.  Steven Asmussen gets his first Derby win.  Front to back end use.
4.  Summer is tomorrow 30-1 – Foreign horses haven’t done well in the derby for at least the last 22 years.   Is there a prop for finishing last?  Toss him today if you want a nice tomorrow.
5.  Smile Happy 20-1 – He seems to have some speed, but I don’t think this horse gets the distance.  I have to use him but not high up.  Back end most likely.
6.  Messier 8-1 – This was a Baffert horse and he has some high speed figures.  He did fall late to Taiva, and I am concerned that this horse can’t get the distance; or was that a conspiracy to get the other Baffert horse Taiva into the derby?  I re-watched it and it does look like Messier could have held back some at the end.  Use top down.
7.  Crown Pride 20-1 – Since 2000, the UAE Derby has produced 16 Kentucky Derby starters and none has finished better than fifth (Master of Hounds in 2011).  Very end or toss.
8.  Charge It 20-1 – Hit the gate in the Florida derby and Luis Saez also made a bad move down the final stretch.  This horse should have won it in my opinion.   I have to use this horse top down for the price.
9.  Tiz the Bomb 30-1 – This horse is properly named because if he hits the board, he will blow up my whole card.  Nearly all of his success has come on different surfaces. He did win a one-mile maiden race on dirt at Ellis Park last July but finished seventh in his other two starts on dirt.  Probably a full toss but maybe the back end.
10.  Zandon 3-1 – I don’t understand this horses odds.  He clearly lost in February to Epicenter and Smile Happy.   He looked great at Keenland at the blue grass, but those fractions were very very slow which made the race a little strange.  Part of his price is due to the announcer at the Bluegrass and how excited he sounded when Zandon came from behind to win.   He is a closer, so I have to use him in this longer race, but I haven’t decided if I want him at the top sharing with Epicenter and 1 other or not.  I also do not like that the field is so big and could cause him problems from the back.  At least middle down for sure.
11. Pioneer of Medina 30-1 – Decent horse but nothing special.  I do like Pletcher but this horse has been dominated twice by Epicenter and both horses starting with Z.  He won’t stand up to the competition here.   Back end at best but maybe a toss.
12.  Taiba 12-1 – The better of the Yakfort bunch?  Not a ton of experience and only two career starts, but boy did this horse show some speed winning the Santa Anita derby.  It’s been since the 1883 that a horse with only two races have won this thing.  I have to think that Mike Smith is on this horse for a reason and if Messier can’t close, he might be the one to get it done in a good post position.  I will have to use this horse from the top to the bottom based on his price, his breeding, and his estranged trainer.
13.  Simplification 20-1 – This horse seemed to have peaked back in March winning the Fountain of youth, but he has never left Gulfstream and could never get past White Abarrio.  Simply toss him off of your card.
14.  Barber Road 30-1 – If this horse places, I might just go and visit a barber and have them shave my head!  Back end at best.
15.  White Abarrio 10-1 – This horse has speed and has done very well winning four out of his five races.   His only loss came at Churchill Downs which is the scary thing.   Do you know what else is scary?  This horse wasn’t the best at the Florida Derby, and I think Charge It is better.   Back end is probably the best play.
16.  Cyberknife 20-1 – This horse is my sleeper and you have to like how his speed figures have gotten better and better since his last bad race.   Brad Cox is a great trainer, and this horse won the Arkansas Derby with ease.  I’ll use him from the Top down.
17.  Classic Causeway 30-1 – This horse never got past 90 Beyers speed figures and he took 11th in his last race.   The only cause that I have is to toss him off of my card.
18.  Tawny Port 30-1 – I do not have much faith in this horse and when he stepped up against good competition in the Risen, he faltered bad.  I also do not think that this horse gets the distance.   Tawny Toss him off of your card.
19.  Zozos 20-1 – He did get easily beaten by Epicenter in the Louisiana derby, but he looked like he could do some damage if something crazy happens.  Inexperienced horse with only three races, but I could be talked into at least a middle position and down here.
20.  SCRATCHED – Ethereal Road 30-1 – Finished 7th and 4th in his last two races.  This horse never had a Beyers faster than 84.   I feel like I am falling asleep just talking about this horse.
21.  Rich Strike 30-1 – This horse hasn’t won since September of 2021 and has never had a Beyer past 84.   You won’t strike it rich with him on your card.  Toss.

Podcast 33 – 22 – Better Odds Sports Betting with Chris Farley – UFC 274 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a GREAT show for you today!  The one and only Chris Farley comes on Better Odds Sports Betting with Kiev O’Neil to talk a huge weekend of NBA and UFC.  Leans and plays were discussed.   Keep in mind that Charles Oliveira missed weight about 5 minutes after our show ended :-).  Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsBreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

NHL Playoff Preview & Picks – May 6th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

Playoff hockey continues to deliver. Jake Oettinger stood on his head last night stopping all 29 shots he faced allowing the Stars to even up the series. Connor Ingram also looked great for Nashville with a .961 SV% before losing to Colorado in overtime. The Rangers got a huge win at MSG which evened up the series and Florida put together a dominant performance at home to beat the Caps 5-1.

We have some great games tonight so I’ll breakdown my picks below.

 

Carolina Hurricanes @ Boston Bruins

  • Series: Carolina Hurricanes 2-0
  • Game Odds: CAR +110, BOS -130, O/U: 5.5 (-120/+100)
  • Preview/ Pick:

The Boston Bruins head back home after losing both games in Carolina. In addition to losing both games, they also lost one of their best defensemen Hampus Lindholm who was acquired at the trade deadline from Anaheim in an effort to sure of their top four. The Bruins will look slightly different heading into Game 3 as they return Pastrnak to the top line with Marchand and Bergeron while moving DeBrusk to the second line with Hall and Haula. Plain and simple, the Bruins desperately need a spark offensively. Marchand who led the team in points during the regular season, only has one point in this series. With this move, the Bruins have really put all their eggs in one basket here and are banking on this top line to generate several goals.

Carolina has just flat out dominated the Bruins in their series continuing that trend from the regular season. In the past two games, the Hurricanes have outscored the Bruins 10 to 3. Despite winning both games, Carolina lost Antti Raanta who was their backup all season but was forced into the starting role after Frederick Anderson went down late in the regular season. Pytor Kochetkov, a rookie, will now take over netminder duties for them. He looked good in Game 2, finishing with a .938 SV% and a +0.25 GSAx. He’ll get his first career playoff start tonight.

While the Bruins aren’t technically facing a must-win game tonight, in reality, it is a must win game as they aren’t going to beat the Hurricanes four games in a row. The good news for Boston is that they have been much better at home this season and TD Garden should provide an electric atmosphere for the home team. Linus Ullmark started the first two games and struggled allowing ten goals combined. The Bruins will turn to rookie goaltender Jeremy Swayman for Game 3 who will be making his first career playoff start. Swayman had a great season and showed that he could eventually take over the number one role in Boston. However, he did struggle coming into the playoffs allowing three or more goals in his past three stats.

PICK: BOSTON BRUINS/ CAROLINA HURRICANES o5.5 -112 – Barstool (1 Unit)

The Bruins desperately need this game and I think the changes in their top six will provide them with some additional chances. Pytor Kochetkov will start again for Carolina, who’s coming off an amazing game that I’m not sure he’ll be able to repeat. Jeremy Swayman gets his first career playoff start and hasn’t been looking great so I think Carolina’s offense will at least get a few by him especially with Boston’s defensive core banged up a bit.

 

LINEMATE PLAYER PROP: Jake DeBrusk over 2.5 SOG +140 – DraftKings

DeBrusk now moves to the second line where he’ll play with Haula and Hall. In the first two games of the series, he’s recorded 2 and 1 SOG respectively. Now, he’ll have more of an opportunity on the second line to play a primary role. Without Pastrnak, him and Hall will have to be the ones to generate offense on this line. During the regular season, he’s only gone over 2.5 SOG in one of three matchups against Carolina. However, given the circumstances for the Bruins tonight, I think this move to the second line provides him with a spark and he has a great game. This is a small play as the Bruins offense hasn’t shown any signs of life in the first two games of this series.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Series: Tied 1-1
  • Game Odds: TOR +100, TBL -120, O/U: 6.5 (-105/-115)
  • Preview/ Pick:

The Leafs came out in Game 1 firing on all cylinders defeating the back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions 5-0 in front of the home crowd. The Lightning responded in Game 2, beating the Leafs 5-3 behind a stellar performance from Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over the course of the last two post-seasons, Tampa Bay has never lost two games in a row. The series heads back to Tampa for Games 3 and 4 with the momentum shifting to the Lightning.

The Bolts have been great at home all season and I think they continue that trend here tonight. While the Leafs have proven that they aren’t going to roll over in this series, I think Tampa Bay will take a 2-1 lead tonight. They’ll be able to get the matchups they want and it’s only a matter of time before their Power Play returns to its dominant form.

PICK: TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING ml -112 – Barstool (1 Unit)

 

Minnesota Wild @ St. Louis Blues

  • Series: Tied 1-1
  • Game Odds: MIN +110, STL -130, O/U: 6.5 (+100/-120)
  • Preview/ Pick:

The Wild and Blues are all tied up at one game a piece heading back to St. Louis. The Blues got a huge win in Game 1 with the Wild responding in Game 2. Kirill Kaprizov recorded the first ever post season hattrick in Minnesota Wild history. Oddly enough, Joel Eriksson Ek almost had this honor, but the goal was called back after a coach’s challenge.

Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to start Game 3 who looked much better in Game 2, after struggling in Game 1. Ville Husso is also expected to be the starter for the Blues tonight who has started both games in this series.

All season long, the Blues have been one of the best teams at home. The Wild looked dominant behind Fleury in Game 2 but he hasn’t been as consistent as past years. Husso, did struggle in Game 2 and will need to put together a solid performance tonight before the possibility of Jordan Binnington starting Game 4 arises. If the Blues want to prevent the Wild from gaining momentum and possibly taking two games on the road, they need to win tonight. The Blues are also without several of their top defensemen tonight but regardless, I still like them.

PICK: ST. LOUIS BLUES ml -118 – Barstool (1 Unit)

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Mavericks 1H Bet

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Hi All!

You might’ve just seen that I released a play at -2 for the Mavs in the 1H, a free pick. If you didn’t bet the Dallas ML yesterday and if you didn’t get good value on the juice (like if it’s -130 or more), a look at Dallas -2 or even Dallas -0.5 for the first half is the better way to go at this point.
Thanks love you bye

NBA Free Pick from FarleyBets – Suns vs. Mavs, Game 3

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Free pick time! The NBA Playoffs are going well for your boy – we’re 36-27 (57%) for +10 units, which is consistent with our career regular season record (490-375, 57%). Let’s grab another W today!

We’re 22-10 the last 11 days in NBA Picks– If you’re interested in my premium picks sent EVERY DAY to your inbox, click here!

Mavs 1H -2 (-110), 1.1 units: To put it lightly and at the risk of an immediate pun, the Suns have been ON FIRE. Let’s look at some of their marks to start off this article, because it’s been just a little bit insane:

  • 57.5% from the field average in games 1 and 2
  • 45% three-point percentage in games 1 and 2
  • 85-61 rebound advantage over two games
  • 55-35 assist advantage over two games
  • 88-76 points in the paint advantage over two games

Yea, they’ve been dominant. Dallas showed signs of life in the first halves of both games, but the Suns continue to find a way to adjust and overwhelm the Mavericks in the last 24 minutes. And all their key players have contributed: Ayton, Booker, and Paul have all put on great performances in the first 2 contests, and players like Crowder, Bridges, Johnson and Payne have been money as their supporting cast.

We can’t say the same for Dallas’ supporting cast, and we think that’s the biggest difference so far in this series. Jalen Brunson has been a huge catalyst for the Mavericks’ success in their first series against Utah. Brunson averaged 28 ppg and shot 48% from the field in 6 games. That’s nothing new – he’s been stellar since January. So far against the Suns, he’s averaging 11 ppg at a hit rate of only 31% over two games. Not good, but there’s hope. At home, Brunson averages 50% from the field and 34% from beyond the arc; we think he can replicate some of those numbers tonight.

Other players like Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, who all but disappeared in game two, haven’t helped. Luka Doncic is brilliant and he’s easily one of the most talented players in the NBA. He leads his team in all major categories – points, rebounds, and assists, and he’s almost the sole reason why they’ve stayed competitive in the first halves of games one and two. But he can’t do it alone.

The Mavericks found success in the final 4 months of the regular season by playing methodical, mistake-free team basketball, and they definitely perform better on their home floor (31-13 straight up this season). The Suns are the more experienced and better overall team, we have little doubt about that, but we also don’t think there’s that big of a disparity. If there was, why would this be a pick-em full game? We’ll take the Mavs to conquer early and look more like the team we loved heading into the postseason.

My Saturday Premier League Plays!

By
Steve Norman
-

Tomorrow is arguably the greatest sports day of the entire year. From NHL and NBA playoffs, PPV Boxing, MLB, The Kentucky Derby, and Oh Yes! Premier League soccer! ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED? We kick off our action packed Saturday with 6 action packed matches. Have certainly had my ups and downs with this adventure but still holding on in the green…. One great weekend can swing it drastically before the end of the season.

Current Soccer Record: 52-61 +1.73 Units

 

Brentford ML (+120) 1 Unit

 We all saw what happened on Monday, smh. I couldn’t have been more wrong backing Brentford going on the road against Man U. They started the match with a quick strike attempt right off the first whistle and then decided to pack it in and call it a day, going down 3-0.   I like a bounce back narrative back on their home pitch after that flat/lackadaisical performance. Especially going up against more inferior competition in that of Southampton. With +120 home value against a club who is 1-2-7 in their last 10 I like our chances. 2-0 match prediction.

Chelsea/Wolves Over 2.5 (-112) 1 Unit

 Wolves have really lost their groove and have not been able to find the back of the net as of late. They have been shut out in their last 3 matches, but it doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of executing. There was a ton of missed opportunities against Brighton last week and the week before to Burnley. After being blown out 3-0 at home walking away with at least one goal on the sheet against Chelsea on the road will feel like at least a moral victory for the club at this point.   Last week we saw Chelsea take an uncharacteristic L to lesser competition in Everton. Not only did they lose, but they weren’t even able to produce a single goal. That will be cleaned up tomorrow. The floodgates will open and Chelsea will pour it on. 3-1 Match prediction.

Crystal Palace ML (-150) 2 Units

 Last week both of these clubs had goals in the winding minutes to change the outcome of the match drastically. For Crystal Palace it was in celebratory fashion as Zaha notched the go ahead goal in the 92’ minute to lead CP to a 2-1 victory over Southampton. Was not so great for Watford as they were clinging on to a 1-0 lead vs Burnley then subsequently letting in 2 goals 3 minutes apart in the 83’ and 86’ minute. Watford ultimately lost 2-1 and deflated any hope for their club to get out of the relegation group. With the disparities of morale between these two clubs, I believe it carries over. Crystal Palace just faced adversity and over came, where Watford has nothing to play for anymore and is mentally defeated. Crystal Palace finds their groove and pours it on with 3-0 match prediction.

1...325326327...665Page 326 of 665