Home Blog Page 327

UFC 274 Picks

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Oliveira/Gaethje over 2.5 rounds (+125), 1 unit
At this point both of these seasoned fighters understand how dangerous their opponent is. Both have the ability to end this fight early, but with the amount of respect they have for one another, I don’t see how they don’t approach it cautiously. That should eliminate round 1 and give us a buffer heading into round 2. Things tend to pick up in championship fights after the 2nd round, so I wouldn’t bet beyond that, but I love this to go further than the books expect.

Chandler/Ferguson goes the distance (+150), 1.5 units
If there’s one thing we know about Tony Ferguson, it’s that he’s really, really tough for any opponent to figure out. Despite being out of the octagon for a year, Tony has no shortage of confidence heading into this fight with one of the best lightweights to ever do it. Chandler is known for his superior wrestling ability, and obviously he could catch Ferguson at some point and score a submission or TKO – Chandler’s athleticism and explosiveness is insane. But I’d rather bet on a proven angle that we’ve seen occur so many times in Ferguson fights. “El Cucuy” (aka the boogeyman) is Ferguson’s nickname for a reason. He’s slithery, unpredictable, and incredibly resilient. And even though he’s on a 3-fight losing streak, look who he lost against: Dariush, Oliveira, and Gaethje – the best of the best. I think we see a fantastic fight here and Ferguson gives Chandler everything he can handle.
 
Norma Dumont by 3 Round Decision (-105), 1 unit
Dumont is a dynamic Brazilian striker with plenty of tools to overwhelm Chiasson throughout the contest. She’s only lost 1 fight and most of her wins, like most female fighters, have come by decision. This is a quality line for that result.
Melissa Gatto wins inside distance (+350), 1/2 unit
I may have a little bias here because Gatto has a pretty face, but don’t be fooled by her looks; this chick is aggressive and all of her last 3 wins have come before the final bell. Capable of beating her opponents in myriad ways, Gatto is undefeated in her pro career and I’m not sure Cortez should be favored. This should not be +350 so let’s take advantage.

Premiums, 5.6

By
Chris R. Farley
-
The NBA is back after yet another anti-climactic day of MLB betting. Before we get into the picks, allow me to defend the ol’ Dallas Mavericks and our previous takes: if the Suns were THAT much better than the Mavs, this line would not be a pick-em today, period. I wouldn’t be surprised if Phoenix still dominated or even ultimately swept Dallas, but it’s nice to see the books give them some respect at home. Let’s watch it closely and see if it moves; I’m guessing the Suns will get more love before tipoff. The first half bet on Dallas was less juiced yesterday, (we grabbed a -115), but we’ll put it at -120 for fairness to all, in case you got it more inflated. If you didn’t get it yet, you may want to wait for a better number. The totals have dropped considerably, which is also a good sign for us and our bet on Dallas – the books anticipate a slower-paced game; which implies that Dallas will control the tempo.
Onto the picks!
 
NBA Picks:
 
Heat ML (-105), 2 units
This is the ML from yesterday, so it’s nice to see that we got 3 points of closing line value here (most books have the Heat at -3). If Embiid returns, he’ll be a cautious version of himself. I mean literally his eyeball could fall out of its socket. And do we really think the Heat will try to protect him or take it easy on him in a playoff game? Na. I love the dynamism of what the Heat are doing right now; they can beat you in so many ways, and the resurgence of Oladipo makes this team even more dangerous.
I love Miami to go up 3-0.
Mavericks 1H ML (-120), 1.5 units 
We saw the Mavericks play well and as a team in the first 24 minutes Wednesday; then Phoenix took over and made Luka try to do it all. Brunson and Dinwiddie have been really disappointing in the first two games, and as brilliant as Luka is, he can’t do this alone against a great team like the Suns. I think we see a more complete version of the Mavericks at home to start off this game. Still don’t know if I trust them to win in the end.
Bucks 1Q ML (-130), 1.5 units and
Bucks 1H ML (-125), 1.5 units and 
Bucks full game ML (-135), 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
MLB Picks:
Lean, Pirates ML
Not much to say here, I just think it’s hilarious that the Pirates are favored over the Reds at home. That’s how bad Cincinnati has been. Yikes.
 
Mariners -1.5 (+170), 1 unit
Alright it’s time for Seattle’s losing streak to end. Logan Gilbert has been sensational over 28 innings to start the season and the Mariners typically show their best selves at home. I think they put it together and win by margin against a solid but tired Rays squad.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Podcast 32 – 22 – With ESPN’s Chris Fallica and WagerTalk’s Marco D’Angelo – The 2022 Kentucky Derby – UFC 274 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Podcast - Sports Betting - Horse Racing
The OddsBreakers With ESPN's Chris Fallica and Wagertalk's Marco D'Angelo

We have a MASSIVE show for you today!  ESPN’s Chris Fallica and Wagertalk’s Marco D’Angelo is back to break down the 148th run for the roses!   First, Kiev recaps the NFL draft with some quaint observations.  Then, Marco and Chris come on to talk about the biggest horse race of the year!   How strong is the field?  Are the two favorites justified at their prices?  What will the weather be like?  What are the best strategies in betting this race?  Who are the thoroughbreds that we are tossing out?  Which horses are legit sleepers?   All of this as well as a nice little conspiracy there to make this race even more interesting!  Finally, Kiev talks a little UFC 274 with some info on the main event and a free play!    Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.

If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some extra benefits and merchandise.

Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsBreakers” to get a 50% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

NHL Playoff Preview & Picks – May 5th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

The NHL Playoffs are underway and the chaos has already started. I’ll breakdown a few of my plays for tonight’s NHL slate. Lets get into it…

 

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Rangers

  • Series: Pittsburgh Penguins 1-0
  • Game Odds: PIT +140, NYR -160, O/U: 6.0 (-115/-105)
  • Preview/ Pick:

Game 1 between the Penguins and Rangers was the most exciting game in the playoffs so far. Evgeni Malkin scored in triple overtime to give the Penguins the early lead in the series. However, the win came at a cost as Casey DeSmith exited the game in over time forcing Louis Domingue to come in for relief. Domingue was great stopping all 17 shots he faced. The Penguins are now down to their third string goalie who will face off against the likely Vezina Trophy winner, Igor Shesterkin. He faced 83 shots in Game 1 and finished with a +3.58 GSAx. If the Rangers want to have a shot in this series they’ll need to win tonight at MSG, which I believe they will. Pittsburgh has the playoff experience while the Rangers are a relatively young team without much post season experience. The Rangers should come out firing behind another strong performance from Igor Shesterkin while I expect Louis Domingue to struggle a bit in his first career playoff start.

PICK: NY Rangers in Regulation (+105) – 1 Unit

 

Dallas Stars @ Calgary Flames

  • Series: Calgary Flames 1-0
  • Game Odds: CGY -250, DAL +190, O/U: 5.5 (-110/-110)
  • Preview/ Pick:

The Flames defeated the Stars in Game 1 by a score of 1-0. Jacob Markstrom was a major part of that victory stopping all 16 shots he faced. In that game their wasn’t a lot of offense as Dallas finished the game with 0.9 xGF while Calgary was only slightly better with 1.21 xGF. The Flames did control most of the play with Jake Oettinger continuing to prove he’s a viable number 1 option. In Game 1, I think we learned more about Calgary than Dallas. The Stars a mediocre team and if you were to say which team benefited from a low scoring game, I would have said Dallas. However, Calgary was able to not only shut down Dallas’ offense but limit them to just 16 shots. I think the Flames, settle down tonight and really get their offense going.

PICK: CAL Flames in Regulation (-130) – 1 Unit

PICK: CAL Flames -1.5 (+110) – 1 Unit

 

Play Prop of the Night

Jonathan Huberdeau over 2.5 SOG (-150)

Huberdeau faced off against the Capitals three times in the regular season and has gone over 2.5 SOG in every one of those games. In Game 1, he recorded 5 Shots on Goal. If the Panthers want to get back on track and even up the series they’ll need Huberdeau to provide that offensive spark.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

May 5th MLB Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

I didn’t have the start to the week I was looking for, but I’ve got my eyes on 2 plays for tonight looking to get us back on track. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!

*MLB(1u): Twins TT OVER 4.5(-115) @ Orioles–6:05 PM CT

Over their last 11 games, the Twins are averaging just under 6 runs/game. They’ll get another favorable matchup today facing Orioles SP Spenser Watkins. While Watkins holds a 2.55 ERA through 4 starts, a 1.25 WHIP indicates that ERA is not sustainable. He has just 8 strikeouts through 17.2 IP, and his FIP(expected ERA) sits at 5.18. The Orioles bullpen has been about league average this year, but I think they’ve overperformed up to this point. This is a staff giving up almost 6 runs/game on getaway day this year, while the Twins are averaging 5 runs/game in that same spot(usually against much tougher pitching staffs). I have no problem backing the Twins offense at this number and price. 

*MLB(1u): Marlins F5 TT OVER 1.5(-130) @ Padres–8:40 PM CT

Padres SP Nick Martinez is not a major-league caliber pitcher. Through 4 starts, he holds an ugly 1.68 WHIP, is giving up 2.29 HR/9, and has a FIP at 6.55. The Marlins are on a bit of a cold spell, but that has little to do with their offense; they’ve averaged 4.5 runs/game amidst this 4 game losing streak. The Marlins are handling righties especially well this season, ranking 6th in the league in OPS vs righties. I believe the price of this game reflects how bad Martinez is; why else would a 16-9 team be -110 at home against a clearly inferior club? However, I don’t want to take my chances on Marlins SP Jesus Luzardo given his knack for blowup innings. I’ll isolate the Marlins offense and take this cheap F5 TT at what I consider to still be a reasonable price given the matchup.

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday Europa League + NHL East. Conf. TOTAL OF THE YEAR info

By
Rob Vinciletti
-
Thursday card has the NHL Playoff Eastern Conference TOTAL Of The Year backed with a 100% Totals System and a Rare 6* MLB Highest Rated Release backed with a System that Wins by an Average 4 runs per game headlining. Afternoon Soccer Comp Play below.
The Europa League Totals Play is on the Over 2.5 goals in the RB Leipzig vs Rangers Match at 3:00 eastern. The First meting went under but we can expect a fast pace here with more scoring chances in this one. Leipzig has scored every time when taking on Scottish League teams and Rangers Games vs German league teams have seen 3 or more goals in 3 of the last 4 matches. Considering the fire power up front that each team has expect a frenetic pace with goals on both sides. Rangers at home have netted 2 or more in 7 of the last 9. Look for this match to play Over 2.5 goals. On Thursday the NHL Eastern Conference TOTAL of the year headlines along with a Highest Rated 6* MLB Diamond Cutter in bases. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twittter to Jump on and cash both. For the Europa League Play. Look for Rangers and RB Leipzig to go over 2.5 goals. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Premiums, 5.5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

We’re reminded of how annoying baseball can be in the Pittsburgh game – the Pirates led 2-0 heading into the 5th and Detroit scored their only 3 runs in the bottom of the same inning, destroying our wager. Hate to see it, but this is the variance and absurdity of sports betting sometimes, especially in MLB.

Pretty glad we avoided the Mavs/Suns game last night. Onto today’s MLB plays and some future NBA plays, and lookout for our UFC plays tomorrow! AWESOME card Saturday night!
NBA Picks:
 
Heat ML (-105), 2 units
We’ve been gifted a line like this on Miami? Sounds good! If Embiid returns, he’ll be a cautious version of himself. I mean literally his eyeball could fall out of its socket. And do we really think the Heat will try to protect him or take it easy on him in a playoff game? Na. I love the dynamism of what the Heat are doing right now; they can beat you in so many ways, and the resurgence of Oladipo makes this team even more dangerous. I love Miami to go up 3-0.
Mavericks 1H ML, 1.5 units (juice not out yet but should be around a pick-em)
We saw the Mavericks play well and as a team in the first 24 minutes last night; then Phoenix took over and made Luka try to do it all. Brunson and Dinwiddie have been really disappointing in the first two games, and as brilliant as Luka is, he can’t do this alone against a great team like the Suns. I think we see a more complete version of the Mavericks at home to start off this game. Still don’t know if I trust them to win in the end.
Bucks 1Q, 1H, and full game ML (Saturday), all 1.5 units each
Oh yea, we’re going to town on Milwaukee Saturday! The Celtics are a VERY legitimate team and cannot be taken lightly, but historically these are the spots where the Bucks like to clobber teams; at home after a loss. The Bucks are 27-13 SU as a home favorite, 21-11 SU after a loss, and 29-15 SU as a home team. Fiserv Forum will be loud, and Milwaukee’s defense won’t perform at the same level they did on Tuesday (aka we’ll see a much better version). Giannis props are probably a good idea, too. To be clear, these are 3 different bets, all moneyline, all Bucks, all 1.5 units each. Let’s fucking go!
MLB Picks:
Nats/Rockies over 11, 1.1 units to win 1
Game two presented a nice little pitching duel and a relatively low-scoring game at Coors Field; not today. Aaron Sanchez is off to a cold start (6.75 ERA) and Senzatela (3.66 ERA) is a little too inconsistent to trust against a Washington lineup that can still SHWING it. We think this goes way over the total.
Orioles first 5 ML (+120), 1 unit
In limited innings Chris Archer has looked above average so far this season, but we think that’ll change today. The Orioles are the Orioles and they’re not winning any titles this year but by our estimation, they’re far from the worst offense. They’re 12th overall in BABIP and they have enough power to greatly improve their slugging % and HR rates. Spenser Watkins has impressed us from the start of his pro career and he’s shown considerably better command early this season. I like Baltimore to get ahead early.
Marlins/Padres over 7 (EVEN), 1 unit
What am I missing here? This line feels way too low for two pitchers who are inconsistent at best and two teams who had high bullpen usage in their last contest. Just going by the numbers here, this is an auto-bet on a total that we think is just wrong.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

MLB Wednesday Play

By
Kristobal Lundborg
-

926 Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-120)* vs Rangers

Seeing some money come in on the Rangers today bringing this ML down from -190 which I do understand. Phillies have been a perennial disappointment since they made those few big signings a couple of years ago. Phillies issues still look like they stem from hitting gone stale at times and an undependable bullpen. Martin Perez is coming off an outstanding start for the Rangers and has improved in each of his starts, which may explain the money on the Rangers tonight.

The Phillies will send Zach Wheeler, who typically does better at home and is also off a good outing. Looking at the hitting splits, we have the Phillies who are hitting 8th best vs LHP and the Rangers who are still hitting 5th worst vs RHP. When looking at favorites who are lined at least at -150, they are hitting at almost 65%, 77-42. Looking at those teams SU in the F5 we see they are 66-31-22, with a nicer 68% hit rate. These F5 wins average over a 1 run margin as well so that has me looking towards the less juicy F5 RL with Philly. Perez also has a tendency to give up the longball and wind is blowing out tonight to RF in Philly so I couldn’t blame anyone looking to take some hitting props on either side as both teams are plenty capable of putting up runs.

One additional MLB play and a NBA play going tonight at my Patreon!

Premiums, 5.4

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

I’m taking it easy in the NBA today – I would rather watch and see what happens between Dallas and Phoenix; I think Dallas will really step up in this game but I can’t say I’m too confident in that right now. And the Heat/Sixers line is awfully sharp. We have one bet in the association but I’m turning more towards MLB today. Onto the picks:

NBA Picks:
76ers/Heat over 207, 1.5 units
This line is getting a little too low. The Heat are taking advantage of every single steal with a transition bucket (literally 100% conversion rate in game 1), and both teams were down in their overall shooting marks. Of course a lot of that can be attributed to Miami’s stellar defense and Philly’s above-average defense, but I still expect regression. On top of that, while it won’t always show in stats, the Heat ran with real pace in game 1 for most of that contest – only slowing down significantly when they had the lead. If I had to pick a side, I’d lean Philly in a crucial game 2 to cover. I have it at 211. Maybe we middle if the total rises.
MLB Picks:
Mets ML, 1.35 units to win 1
How good do the Mets look these days? They’ll have the better pitcher by a long shot today and Atlanta is probably pretty excited to get the hell out of this series. I think NYM sweeps the champs.
Pirates (game 1) first 5 +0.5, 1.2 units to win 1
Dillon Peters has looked sensational in 13 innings this season and although Detroit has batted well against lefties, they’re probably way overdue for regression. Taking a shot on Pitt and one of their only hopes in Peters.
Astros -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.1 (+110)
The Astros are flexing at home against a burgeoning Seattle team, momentum is a thing, and now they’re sending Verlander to the mound against Brash? Night night, Seattle.
Brewers -1.5, 1.25 units to win 1
The Brewers are in a flow-state right now and although Peralta hasn’t found a rhythm yet, this isn’t a bad spot for the 25 year old to find it. I trust Milwaukee’s bats and bullpen considerably more, too.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

MLB Tuesday 2-Pack – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Dodgers starter Julio Urias delivers a pitch in the first inning.

San Francisco Giants vs LA Dodgers -134 – O/U 7

This should be a good game to end the night on.  The Giants over the past year or so have been Giant killers as they have performed quite well against the Dodgers, and even won the NL West last year.   This year might be a little different and I have to look at this game right here.   Now the Dodgers are playing at home so you have to give them 15-20 cents just for that.  Both of these teams have the number one and number two bullpens in FIP in in the league.   No big advantages.   The Dodgers have a higher wRC+ ranking 10th to the Giants 15th.  Slight advantage Dodgers in scoring runs.   The Giants have the better starting pitching numbers-wise being that Rodon had a 2.65 FIP last year for the white Sox with a huge .95 FIP over four games this year against Urias who had a 3.13 FIP last year, with a 4.36 FIP over four games this year, but you also have to look at what these pitchers have done against each team.   Rodon has faced the Dodgers twice and has given up seven runs as well as five home runs.  Urias has faced the Giants 20 times over 76 innings and has an amazing 2.61 ERA and has only given up 5 HRs.   Urias himself looks like the Giant killer, and I think the Dodgers get this one here at home.

Dodgers -135 for 1 star

Arizona vs Miami -180 O/U 7.5

The Marlins are coming off of a lost to the Diamondbacks last night.   They struggled facing Zac Gallen who is Arizona’s best pitcher.  Miami has Rogers pitching vs the Snakes today, and they are reeling from that bad loss last night.   Arizona is 11-13 with a -18 run differential while the Marlins are 12-1 with a +5 respectively.  Trevor Rogers is pitching for the fish and boasting a 3.02 FIP against Humberto Castellanos who has a 3.65 FIP.   The Diamondbacks are 29th in wRC+ while the Marlins are 8th.  Take the Marlins here to bounce back.

Miami -175 for 1 star

1...326327328...665Page 327 of 665