We have a HUGE show for you today! Mike North @North2North from ESPN 1000 comes on to talk some Chicago Bears and NFL draft as well Raphael Esparza @VSIDocSports comes back on to talk draft props as well as a few plays that he has made himself! First, Mike and Kiev get to know each other some sharing their history of Chicago Bears fan frustrations and their thoughts on the Bears new front office and quarterback. Next, Mike and Kiev talk the NFL draft. Does any of the big NFL insiders really know what they are talking about? What plays can we trust and why? Then, Raphael comes on to discuss some draft props and possible some exotic lines that he will be making for the draft. Raphael and Kiev also give out some FREE PLAYS as well. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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The Philadelphia Phillies play host to the Colorado Rockies tonight for game 2 of their 4-game series. The Rockies will give the nod to righty German Marquez who has posted a 1.38 WHIP, 5.08 FIP and is allowing 2.08 homeruns and only 6.75 strikeouts per 9 innings. Against this Phillies roster, he has given up 5 homeruns, .355 batting average and .406 wOBA in his career. The Phils will send out right-hander Zack Eflin to the mound tonight. In his career, Eflin has not been good against this Rockies roster posting a 4.50 FIP while allowing a .420 wOBA and .385 batting average in 70 at bats. After scoring 8 runs last night, Philly’s bats are starting to get going as they rank in the top 10 of the MLB in home runs, runs scored, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. The Rockies offense has been consistent all season and ranks in the upper third of the majors in hits, homeruns, and runs scored against right-handed pitching. A year ago, Colorado was not a good road team but this season has been a bit different for them. The Rockies rank 8th in ISO and 9th in wOBA as a road team this season. It is also worth mentioning that both bullpens have been below average to date on the young season. Take Over 8 runs
In game 2 of their 4-game series, the Boston Red Sox take on the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Red Sox will throw out righty Nick Pivetta who has started the season posting a horrible 2.14 WHIP and 8.12 FIP while allowing 3.09 homeruns per 9 innings. It wont get better for him tonight against one of the potent offenses in the league. An offense that has hit .329 BA, .412 wOBA and 9 extra base hits in 84 at bats against Pivetta and earning him a 6.49 FIP. Bo Bichette and George Springer are the two hitters in the lineup as they both own over a .500 wOBA in 31 combined at bats against Pivetta. The Jays will counter with righty Kevin Gausman who has been excellent in his career against the current Red Sox roster. He owns a 29.3% K rate with a 2.79 FIP while giving up just 3 homeruns in 194 at bats including a start last week in Boston when he pitched a gem, giving up 7 hits and 1 run while striking out 8 in 8 innings pitched. There is not much to say about the offenses except that they are currently at different ends of the hitting spectrum. Look for more of the same in this one and take the Blue Jays RL -1.5
Well it sucks that Jimmy Butler is out, didn’t see that coming, but now there’s another way to attack this contest. Officially I’m OFF the bet at -7, which is probably obvious, so I’ll have to eat that and take it off our total unit count.
Still, there’s a chance the Heat can still cover that line, if you’d prefer to keep it. Miami is at home and they would MUCH prefer to close out this series. Seeing more Tyler Herro won’t be too much of a bad thing, either.
The Heat should play at a quicker pace without Jimmy, who plays with that very methodical, slow Luka/Harden-esque-like pace. We know the Hawks can score and there’s a physicality factor that Miami loses without Butler, too.
Officially, I’m taking over 217 for 1 unit. With Jimmy OUT, that changes my total to 222.
A winner on the Cardinals TT UNDER last night gave us a profitable start to the week and made it 4 straight winning days! I’ve got 4 MLB plays for tonight looking to keep things rolling and extend the win streak to 5 days. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies -1.5(+130) vs Rockies–5:45 PM CT
The Rockies are typically a team you want to bet on at home and fade on the road, so getting +130 to fade them is enticing to begin with. Phillies SP Zach Eflin is a reliable righty who just held this Rocks lineup to 2 ER through 5.2 IP in a much tougher park last week. Eflin allowed less than 1 HR/9 at home last season, and the Rockies ranked 29th in OPS vs righties on the road. The back end of the Phillies bullpen is fairly fresh as well. Rockies SP German Marquez has actually become accustomed to pitching at Coors Field and has seen his numbers slip up on the road. Last season, the righty held an abysmal 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.4 HR/9 away from home. The Phillies lineup erupted for 8 runs last night and will be playing in their 5th straight home game tonight. When they faced Marquez in Colorado last week, they slugged 3 home runs. The Rockies bullpen started the year off strong, but as expected, they have fallen all the way to dead last in WHIP after a few rough performances. The Rockies have started off this season strong on the road, but I think last night was a glimpse into what’s to come. I’ll lay the 1.5 with the Phils at what I’d consider a great price.
*MLB(1u): White Sox F5 TT OVER 2.5(-115) vs Royals–6:10 PM CT
The White Sox(6-9) have gotten off to a slow start this season, but the one constant that has remained true is that this team straight up MASHES lefties. While the sample size is small this year, Chicago ranks 2nd in OPS against lefties and will face an arm tonight that they have torn up in the past. Royals SP Daniel Lynch coughed up 8 runs in the 1st inning of a game against the Sox last year and allowed 6 runs through 2.2 IP in another. There will also be a strong wind blowing out to dead center in a ballpark that already favors hitters considerably. At a fair -115 price, I will back an offense early in this game that has excelled against left-handed pitching for a large stretch of time.
*MLB(1u): Guardians/Angels OVER 7.5(+105)–8:38 PM CT
Angels SP Patrick Sandoval has allowed 0 runs through 2 starts, but a 1.50 WHIP indicates that he’s caught quite a few breaks up to this point in the season. Sandoval walked 4.5 batters/9 innings at Angel Stadium last year, a formula that is simply not conducive for success. The Guardians lineup has fallen back down to Earth after a hot start offensively, but they are still more than capable of taking advantage of a pitcher who is bound to regress. The Angels have also been in save situations each of the past 2 games, so their bullpen isn’t on ideal rest entering tonight’s matchup. Similarly to Sandoval, Guardians SP Triston McKenzie has a history of control issues(4.35 BB/9 in 2021). He walked 4 in his last start against the White Sox, and now he’ll receive his toughest task of the season facing the Angels lineup in their home stadium. The Angels are currently tied for 2nd in OPS vs righties this season and rank among the top of the league in nearly every other offensive category. The Guardians have also had to dig deep into their bullpen over their last 4 games and won’t be at their freshest tonight either. To top it all off, there will be a 10 mph wind blowing out to LF in sunny Los Angeles during tonight’s game. I think this number is wrong to begin with, but the fact we’re getting plus-money on this play was enough for me to hop on board. Given the control issues from each pitcher, opportunities should be abundant for each offense tonight.
I’m taking a flyer on the A’s tonight for the simple reason that this is a TERRIBLE travel spot for the Giants. San Francisco just played 11 straight road games in the Midwest/East Coast region and now travel back home on zero days of rest. Additionally, they had a weird 1 game stop in Milwaukee last night on a day they were supposed to have off and likely arrived home in the wee hours of the morning. This is Major League Baseball; even the worst teams are going to win 55-60 times a season. If you’re going to give me greater than 2:1 odds to fade a team in this bad of a spot, I will hop on board. GO VERY LIGHT HERE.
Tuesday card has the first Round Western Conference Total of the Year, and a Huge NHL Revenge play and the MLB Game Of The Week. Soccer Comp play below
The Champions League Totals Play is on the Over 2.5 goals in the Real Madrid vs Manchester City match at 3:00 eastern. Manchester City have found the back of the net 80 times in their last 33 fixtures and they take on a Real Madrid that Leads the La Liga in goals scored. So we should see a higher scoring game here. Madrid knocked Chelsea out and City took out Atletico Madrid. The game shapes up as a top level match between two heavy weights who rarely lose. In the series City has scored 8 goals alone in the last 3 matches. Expect goals from each side of the pitch. Play Real Madrid and Manchester City Over the total. On Tuesday Rob has his NHL Revenge Game Of The Year and the NBA Western Conf. Round 1 Total Of The Year and a Powerful MLB Play OF the Week. Jump on and cash out as we stay hot. For the Comp Play. Go Over the total in the Real Madrid vs Manchester City match. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Tuesday brings us a full 15 game slate with quite a few potentially lopsided match-ups. For my Free Play today I am looking at the Padres visiting the Reds at 5:40 CT.
Joe Musgrove takes the hill for the Friars and looks to build on his continued success. Musgrove came up as a highly touted arm, who while having pinpoint control was unable to consistently miss bats. That all changed in 2020 when he made a tweak to his curve ball, and upped his cutter usage. The Curve is now one of the top 3 curves in baseball and when mixed with his slider gives him two different elite breaking pitches to set guys down with. He comes into today’s contest with a 1.89 ERA and a 1.83 xFIP. The only two Reds who have had any semblance of success off of Joe are Votto and Moustakas, as the rest of the lineup has struggled or hasn’t seen him.
Reiver Sanmartin is a 26 year old lefty making his third start of the year. He has a +Fastball, but hasn’t been able to develop his secondary offerings into effective pitches just yet. He was solid coming up in the minors so I do believe it is only a matter of time before he enjoys success at the big league level. He has a 7.11 ERA and a 4.14 xFIP coming into this matchup.
Early on this year the Padres are doing most of their damage vs left handed pitching. They have a .728 OPS vs lefties and 9 of their 13 Home Runs are off of Southpaws. On the flip side the Reds are dead last in hitting vs Right handed pitching with a .530 OPS and have struck out 30% of their ABs.
For me the Reds inability to put up runs with 43 so far in 16 games doesn’t bode well for them against Musgrove, and while the Padres aren’t tearing the cover off the ball they probably only need 3-4 runs to cover the Run Line here.
Another undefeated night! I’m gonna shut my mouth, not take myself too seriously, and keep trudging on like Elon Musk… Let’s fucking go, crew!
NBA Picks:
Heat -7, 1.5 units
I’m a big Trae fan and the Hawks have fight, but I think this series ends tonight. Atlanta never plays as well on the road, and if Miami can control this pace (like they have all series), it’ll be really, really tough for Atlanta to hang with the Heat if the Miami offense gets in a rhythm, which they usually do at home. Trae basically consented to the fact that he can’t escape the double teams he’s seeing and if Trae is limited, the Hawks are limited, period. Atlanta is over their head in this one – the Heat blow them out.
Grizzlies -6, 1.5 units
I was surprised as anyone to see the Grizzlies lose game 4, but now they’re back home and make no mistake about it, they’re the better team. Capable of actually playing defense, disciplined, well-coached, and energized by the consistency of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and a group with a ton of chemistry, they should have no issue responding to Minnesota at home and pulling out a big win. I have this at -7, which isn’t much of an edge, but this feels like the kind of game where the Grizzlies could win by 20.
Lean, 1H Pelicans +3.5
This is a little too many points for the home-team Suns against a Pelicans team that’s looking like they have them figured out. First half lines can be tricky but I’d lean Pels. Not an official play.
MLB Picks:
Mariners/Rays over 7, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Logan GIlbert and Matt Wisler have looked sharp to start this season, and this total is LOW for a reason. But both of these lineups have been consistently effective – this will be a game of “who cracks first,” and usually we see a waterfall of runs after that point. Value on the over.
Yankees -1.5, 1.3 units to win 1
The Yankees bats have been WHITE HOT and now they get to face Jordan Lyles? Enough said.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The NFL draft is upon us, and this is the time that I love to do some team research in comparing what they actually need to what they might do in the first round of the draft. I like to look at what some of these teams have done in free agency compared with the gaps that still need to be filled to become better football teams. Now I think that this draft classis a lot weaker than we all expected coming off of two Covid seasons that should have added more players, and therefore, talent to this pool. Many teams will want to trade down for more picks being that few players really stick out, but I also think that there won’t be many candidates trading up leaving teams to make picks at the last few seconds in their spots. Here is how I rank the draft by position group weighted more towards the top of the class. I also put the total number of players selected per position in the first round to make it easier for that to decipher:
I have 16 offensive players and 16 defensive players selected in the first round.
QB – Poor – 3
RB – Below Average – 0
WR – Poor – 7
OT – Good – 5
C/G – Poor – 1
TE – Medium – 0
DE/Edge – Great – 5
DT – Medium – 2
LB – Below Average 2
CB – Good – 5
S – Below Average – 2
P/K – Good – 0
FB – N/A – 0
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, draft top OL like Evan Neal from Alabama. This team needs so much and they need to protect their new quarterback more than get an edge rusher being that they already have Josh Allen.
My Mock Pick: Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan Everyone has him top edge in the draft, but I think he really just blends in with the top 4 or 5 guys due to his slower 40 time at 4.72.
2. Detroit Lions
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, draft Kavon Thibodeaux. The Lions poor pass rush is hurting their secondary ranking 4th worst in pressure rate. Is it time to get to the quarterback? Not yet. Now the Lions do need a QB, but there are no breakout stars, and they have number 32 and 34 to take care of that.
My Mock Pick: Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
He might be the most talented prospect in this class. 6’5 and a 4.58 forty at the combine sure helps. Kayvon was the number 1 draft prospect coming into the college season. Thibodeaux had a superb freshman season for the Ducks, doing an excellent job of getting after the quarterback and totaling nine sacks, 35 tackles, a forced fumble and three passes batted. Thibodeaux at 255 lbs is quick off the edge with an explosive first-step, and flashes speed and power to bull rush some offensive tackles. The only knock on him is that he has taken some plays off in the past, but many of players do when losing the game by a few scores.
3. Houston Texans
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, this team really needs anything and everything. Maybe start with an offensive tackle and see if one of your quarterbacks pan out. Ikem Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State should be available here. Grab a QB later.
My Mock Pick: Ikem Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State
Very close between Neal and Ekwonu. I think the Texans play it safe here. No drama, with this pick and they are maybe getting the best in the position here. Many draft boards have him at number 1, and he can move to right tackle if they keep Tunsil at the left. Can never have enough top Oline in my book.
4. New York Jets
What they should do: Trade Down (if even possible), but if not, this team could use some interior lineman and some cornerbacks. Being that they just signed Solomon Thomas, I think that Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati makes a ton of sense and especially since coach Saleh is defensive minded. Gardner is fast and is 6’3 which really helps him against the taller wide-outs.
My mock pick: Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, CB, Cincinnati. I think the team gets it right here. The Jets ranked 4th worst in the NFL allowing 275 receiving yards per game and the best corner in the draft will help that. They can try and take a shot with an edge rusher later in the draft.
5. New York Giants
What they should do: Trade Down (if even possible), but it not, this team could use edge rushing or offensive line. The Giants O-line and pressure rate both ranked 30th in the league last year. I’d go with Neal if he is still available.
My Mock Pick: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
It is hard not to look at a guy that blocked for Mack Jones and Najee Harris. Neal (6-7, 360) is a massive man who started at left guard as a freshman in 2019. As a sophomore, he replaced Jedrick Wills at right tackle and had a fine season for Alabama. Very trustworthy here and should be a day one starter.
6. Carolina Panthers
What they should do: Trade down (if even possible), but if not, Matt Rhule is on the hot seat and trading down might get him fired even quicker. This team made a huge mistake last year going after Sam Darnold when they has very bad problems on both sides of the trenches. Carolina signed an Center and a Guard in free agency. This team needs much more help in the trenches being ranked 31st at offensive line on pro football focus, but that ship has now sailed for Matt Rhule. Drafting a pocket QB will get destroyed, and the best thing to have a shot in saving Rhule’s job is to draft a running QB like Malik Willis to try and mitigate that bad offensive line with some read option type plays. The best thing to do for the team however, is to take an offensive lineman.
My Mock Pick: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
I think that Matt Rhule knows he needs something big. General Manager Scott Fitterer was also part of that bad Darnold trade. Looking back, there are some teams that had a lot of success the first year drafting running QBs while having a terrible offensive line. The Ravens did it with Lamar Jackson, and the Cardinals had immediate success with Kyler Murray, and the Eagles did ok with Jalen Hurts. Do or die here for coach Rhule.
What they should do: I think that ranking 3rd to last in pressure rate won’t win them too many games vs the Cowboys, and the Commanders next season. I think it’s time to get a good defensive end. Even though there was an early run on edge rusher, Travon Walker grades pretty high with a massive 4.51 forty time and 2nd best on the three cone drill while weighing a massive 275 lbs. Pretty safe pick I think here.
My Mock Pick: Travon Walker, DE, Georgia
Getting to the quarterback relieves pressure on the DBs. I think that the Giants know they can get a QB later if they want, and will beef up the pass rush with this pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons
What they should do: I hate to say it, but tanking for next season is the best option being that Bryce Young, Stetson Bennet, and CJ Stroud will be the top of the 2023 draft class. The Falcons were dead last in pressure rate last year and they also had a bad offensive line. Having no wide receivers isn’t exactly good for Marcus Marriota. The Falcons could go many ways here, but drafting Kyle Pitts last year kinda tells me that they have to protect their quarterback before going WR. I say draft OL like Trevor Penning because he can also run block.
My Mock Pick: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
Marriota has nobody to throw to here and they did sign ex-Bear Germain Ifede to a 1 year deal at Right Tackle to try and put a little duck tape on that Offensive Line. Wilson is very fast and is more athletic than his close counterpart Chris Olave. Wilson’s forty was a split second faster and his vertical Jump exceeded Olave’s by 4 inches.
What they should do: Seattle won’t be competitive this year losing guys like Russell Wilson and Bobbie Wager, but this team at least has a few earlier 2nd round picks. I think that this team could go offensive tackle or Edge rusher here, but I think they get the Tackle first being that the top three edge rushers are gone. Go with Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa.
My Mock Pick: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The SEC is much sexier than going division two even though the size of Penning looks more NFL like. Cross has great feat and can slow up the best of the edge rushers. His size is fine at 6’5 and he can play on either side. I think after a year or so, he could be a very good pro.
What they should do: Everyone has the Jets drafting a receiver here because they offered this pick for DK Metcalf, but I tend to think that DK is way more proven than any rookie, and should not be compared to what might happen here. The Jets drafted Mims high in the 2nd round in 2020 and they drafted Elijah Moore with pick number 34 in 2021. I just can’t fathom the Jets getting another expensive WR here now that they picked up two tight ends in Uzomah and Conklin in free agency. We also can’t forget that they have Corey Davis. Pick an edge rusher like Jermain Johnson from Florida State who is a beast for his size and speed. Johnson had 12 sacks last year for the Semis.
My Mock Pick: Drake London, WR, USC
Stupid is what Stupid does. The Jets are that type of organization to waste another top tier pick on a wide receiver. London is at least very tall and a red zone nightmare, but I cannot trust him to separate from the fast secondary in the NFL. London is a work in progress but at least a big target.
11. Washington Commanders
What they should do: Washington actually had a decent offensive line last year, even with the injuries. This team lost some games that they probably shouldn’t have as well as should have won some games that they choked away. In saying that, Washington could use some linebackers and Safeties. Lewis Cine and JT Woods is the best two safeties in this draft. I would take one of them in a heartbeat.
My Mock Pick: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has been hurt a little bit because of his forty time, which was a 4.59 at the combine and a little slower at his pro day. He looked great at Notre Dame, but his speed concerns me for the NFL. He is at least very tall and will be able to grab some jump balls!
12. Minnesota Vikings
What they should do: The Vikings were active in free agency signing OLB Zadarius Smith, ILB Jordan Hicks and Run Stopper DT Harrison Phillips from Buffalo. Now it’s time to help in the corners and Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida Height: 6’s, Weight 196lbs with a 4.39 forty is the next best out there.
My Mock Pick: Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
Too many people like Stingley here even though I disagree with his position. Stingley was highly touted at LSU before his injury woes. He grades out well with his arm length during the little time that he played last year. Stingley is a boom or bust candidate. Team sources say that Stingley has the skill set to be great in the NFL, but they wonder if he can put it all together. Stingley did not work out at the 2022 NFL Scouting Combine, and team sources said they were underwhelmed with his interview.
What they should do: Trade down again if possible, but I really don’t know how they could justify not taking a quarterback here being that only one of them is off of the board. I have to think that Pickett, Strong, and Ritter are all available. It’s hard for me to believe that they are all busts, and if Houston does their homework, they will find the one that will turn out.
My Mock Pick: Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State: The Texans want to evaluate Davis Mills this season. They won’t be able to properly do that if Brandin Cooks is Mills’ only viable receiver. Chris Olave has size 6-1, 185 and speed. He became a big name at the end of 2019 in Columbus.
14. Baltimore Ravens
What they should do: Trade down, (if possible), but if not, the Ravens had quite a few holes last year and none more glaring than their offensive line. Now that their RBs will be healthy, it is time to help them stay healthy. Pick an offensive lineman in Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa.
My Mock Pick: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Baltimore follows suit. Penning is a huge 6’7 tackle who has surprising quickness (4.89) forty with athleticism to go along with excellent size. In both phases, Penning is a great blocker. He also had a good performance at the Senior Bowl. Even though Penning played for a division two school, you have to love this guys metrics.
What they should do: Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches with two first round picks this year and next. for 2022 they have picks 15 and 18 so they really do have options here. Philly does not overwhelmingly need anything at any particular position, yet there is room for improvement everywhere. I think that they need to get the best player at a position with DT Jordan Davis who is a 6’6 monster of a man that ran a 4.78 forty with a 32 inch vertical jump.
My Mock Pick: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
Brilliant minds thing a like. 😉 How do you not go with this monster of a man that will clog up the run game against some of the best offensive lines in football? Along with his insanely fast forty, Davis worked out well and did well in the team interviews. Davis can eat up double team blocks allowing linebackers to get great tackles for losses.
What they should do: I am sorry, but I am not a big believer in Jameis Winston, and I also think the gimmick on Taysom Hill has worn out it’s welcome, in staying that, it is hard to be sure on a quarterback in this class and the Saints do not want to end up with another Ian Book who looked lost last year when the team was in dyer need. In saying that, the Saints also have the 19th pick in the draft and will not need to pick a QB ahead of the Chargers and the Eagles. The Saints should take an offensive lineman here.
My Mock Pick: Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Tyler Smith’s favorite team is the Saints, and they seemed to like him according to reports. The Saints need to replace Terron Armstead. Smith has the size at 6’5, quickness, and explosiveness to run block for Alvin Kamara.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
What they should do: The Chargers just signed two big three techniques (nose tackles) along with the Khalil Mack trade to help them stop the run, which they were worst in the NFL in opponent rush EPA in 2021. Now that they did that, they could use more inside linebackers, and 3-4 heavy style defensive ends or 5 techniques.
My Mock Pick: Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
The Chargers lost their top tackler in Kyzir White to the Eagles and now it’s time to groom the best linebacker in the draft for that role. The fact that the Chargers picked up Troy Reeder from Rams on a 1 year deal shows that he won’t be long term and will be grooming someone to take over the job.
What they should do: Like I was saying, Philadelphia has an embarrassment of riches with two first round picks this year and next. Now that they have a great D lineman in Davis, as well as signing Kyzir white, the smartest move that they can make is to give their quarterback another great tight end to throw to. Jalani Woods graded out spectacularly well running a 4.61 forty at 6’7 260 LBS with 24 bench reps in the combine. He can run block as well. Jalani used to be a quarterback in high school as well as early in his early college career.
My Mock Pick: Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
I see corner depth as an issue now that Steven Nelson left to Houston. McDuffie played well in 2021, stopping receivers, and not allowing big plays. He showed added special teams value in 2021 by serving as a punt returner. McDuffie recorded 35 tackles and six passes broken up on the year. McDuffie has the versatility to play outside as well as in the slot. He also will wrap up and bring down ball carriers in the run game. He’s physical and could fit in well in Philadelphia.
What they should do: Like I said before, this team is too good to have to rely on Jameis Winston this year. Another mediocre year isn’t going to put them in contention for one of the top quarterbacks next year. I think that the Saints have to take a shot at a quarterback here like a Kenny Pickett, but they most likely won’t because of everything that they put into Winston and Taysom Hill.
My Mock Pick: Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
The Ohio State transfer was an amazing playmaker for the Crimson Tide last year averaging 19.9 yards per catch for 1,572 yards with 15 touchdowns on 79 catches before tearing an ACL in the National Championship Game. The 6-foot-2, 189-pound Williams would have been the best wide receiver in the draft if he was healthy. I think the Saints are ok with waiting on him until October or so.
What they should do: This one isn’t hard. The Steelers were the worst team against the run last year in opponent rushing yards per game. This team needs a 3 technique to free up the linebackers. Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia would be perfect for the job, but the problem is that the Steelers might blame last year on injuries and feel that they can stop the run while healthy. Also getting Myles Jack could give them a false sense of hope against the run.
My Mock Pick: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt
This pick is completely dependent on what this team thinks of Mitch Trubisky after the terrible tragedy that happened to Duane Haskins. Pickett has good size and decent speed. He isn’t afraid to run the ball which, this day and age, is a good thing. Kenny Pickett stands 6’3 with 8.25 inch hands and ran a 4.73 forty. He had an amazing year at last year at Pitt, but some of that might have been their offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Pickett was very accurate last year in his deep throws and very clutch at 42 – 7 TD to interception ration, but I can’t get by his small hands.
21. New England Patriots
What they should do: With Kyle Van Noy, Dont’a Hightower, and Jaime Collins all not signed as free agents, I have to think that the Patriots go linebacker here and it is what they should do. In saying that, this is Bill Belichik that we are talking about and he is very unpredictable in nature. This team could also use a good wide receiver, but they reached for one just a few years back with N’Keal Harry.
My Mock Pick: Devin Lloyd, ILB, Utah
Lloyd was a beast for the Utes last year leading their tough defense to the pack 12 championship. Lloyd had 111 tackles, eight sacks, one forced fumble, four interceptions, and six passes defended. The 6-foot-3, 235-pounder flies around the field and he definitely is a three-down starter in the NFL.
What they should do: Being that Aaron Rogers had this team by the balls after they tried to get cute a few drafts ago, it is now time to virtue signal to him that they are looking out for his best interests. High maintenance people need pampering, and there is no better way to do that as to show Aaron your commitment to his numbers by drafting the best wide receiver available.
Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Replacing Devonte Adams will be tough but this guy is the closest there is. If Jameson Williams isn’t the best WR in this class, than Christian Watson might be that guy. Christian is 6-foot-4 receiver with 4.36 forty speed and elite measurables. He can be a big-play threat in the redzone. Watson had a great day at the Senior Bowl impressing many scouts. When you have great measurables, and a performance like that, you tend to ignore that he played division two football.
23. Arizona Cardinals
What they should do: Well, now you have Kyler Murray ticked off at you while losing Christian Kirk, Chandler Jones, Chase Edmunds, Jordan Hicks and Jordan Phillips, a GM must make trust saving moves. JJ Watt’s massive contract sure doesn’t help here. I would trade down if I was GM, but if that can’t happen, I say to go defensive end to replace Chandler Jones. A lot of mocks have Arizona picking a WR but that won’t move the needle.
My Mock Pick: George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
The loss of Chandler Jones stings, but to be completely honest, I thought that he took games off last year anyways. George Karlaftis has amazing football instincts. In 2021, Karlaftis recorded 36 tackles, 4.5 sacks, two passes broken up and two forced fumbles. He can both rush the passer and defend the run. He seems a little slow but his size fits into Arizona’s 3-4 scheme.
24. Dallas Cowboys
What they should do: How about quit being the butt of every joke? The Cowboys have way too much talent to not make it to an NFC championship game. Zeke is old now and way overpaid for that running back position. In saying that, this great offensive line lost two key guys to free agency in guard Conner Williams and right tackle La’el Collins. I do not like the guards that much in this draft, so I say to get a tackle like Ohio State’s Nick Petit-Frere
My Mock Pick: Zion Johnson, G, Boston College
Jerry Bones Jones will follow suit here and grab a guard being that he doesn’t want to screw it up. I also think Dallas goes guard here because of the fact that none have been taken as of yet. Zion Johnson played tackle at Boston College, but his size and length limitations may force him to guard.
25. Buffalo Bills
What they should do: Buffalo gained a great edge rusher in Von Miller as well as two good defensive tackles. They, however, lost CB Levi Wallace to free agency to the Steelers and he needs to be replaced. The Bills also need a good running back, but that can wait being that there isn’t much of a difference in the top 5 of this running back class.
My Mock Pick: Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson
Booth excels in press-man coverage which makes him a great replacement for Levi Wallace. Andrew accumulated 37 tackles, three interceptions and three passes broken up in 2021. He has a good skill set and is a talented cover corner, but a tad bit slow for being only 6’0 tall and his double hernia surgery didn’t bode well this offseason.
26. Tennessee Titans
What they should do: The titans acquired Robert Woods from the Rams but he is coming off of an ACL tear, and we do not know when he will be ready. I thought that the wide receivers on this team didn’t make it easy for Ryan Tannehill vs the Bengals, and they need to fill that gap. The Titans could also use an linebacker after losing Raashan Evans but they can wait on that.
Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State
Dotson ran a nice 4.43 40 in the combine. He is over 6’1 inches tall and played great for Penn State last year. If the quarterback play was better, I think that he would have even had a better year than his 95 receptions, 1187 yards and 12 touchdowns. This guy will be a good pro and he can fight for the ball.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What they should do: Now that TB 12 is back, the ceiling is the roof. With the loss of Ndamukong Suh, this team could use a good defensive tackle. They are also short a guard and a Safety. I am ok with any of those picks.
My Mock Pick: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Wyatt is just too good to pass up here. He was Georgia’s best interior defensive lineman at least stat-wise, and he could move from the nose to the 5 technique spot. In 2021, Wyatt collected 39 tackles, 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and one pass batted. He ran the fory at a speedy 4.77 seconds weighing 304 LBS. I also think that Tampa knows that they can get a guard in the next round of this draft, and in this weak quarterback division, they don’t need to worry about safety quite as much.
28. Green Bay Packers
What they should do: Now that Aaron Rogers has been pampered some, the teams needs to replace Zadarious Smith coming off the edge. The Packers did resign an injured Robert Tonyan at tight end and I think that they will be able to get a good tight end in the second or third round being that everyone is so down on this class. Now I do still think that Jelani Woods would be a great tight end pick here so I am ok with that but they will probably go edge here and there are some good ones available.
My Mock Pick: Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
Jermaine dropped too far not to take him here. Johnson had 12 sacks last season and was one of the most impressive prospects at the Senior Bowl in January. JJ already has a few veteran pass-rush moves, and can be an instant starter. He also played a lot of outside linebacker for the Seminoles, so he will have some versatility in a 3-4 defense.
What they should do: The Chiefs lost two cornerbacks in free agency in Charvarious Ward and Mike Hughes. They will need to replace that, but the good news, is that they have two picks here to do it. We also have to keep in mind that the Honey Badger isn’t signed at safety, and the Chiefs might want to try and replace Tyreke Hill.
My Mock Pick: Daxton Hill, S/CB, Michigan
I think that Hill is kinda perfect for this situation. The Chiefs need a corner but safety also needs help. Daxton can play both, and he graded out great at the combine running a 4.38 40 at 6’0 tall 191 lbs. I think that Hill might go earlier to a team like Buffalo, or Philly, but but we shall see.
What they should do: No changes here mate! What I didn’t mention before is the Daniel Sorenson loss at Safety as well. The Chiefs might want to try and replace Tyreke Hill here. Now should they grab a WR here? The answer is no, there are too many out there that grade the same and they also have two 2nd and two 3rd round plays. Plus they also signed Ju-Ju Smith Schuster. To be honest, I am still scratching my head trying to figure out how this team blew that playoff game at home. I think that this team should draft a Safety now that Sorenson is gone.
My Mock Pick: George Pickens, WR, Georgia
GMs fall in love with QBs and the WR position. I do not think the Chiefs can resist passing on a guy like George Pickens who was great before his ACL tear in 2021. You have to like his 6’3 size with 4.47 speed. Team sources are high on Pickens and that is why I think that he goes here.
31. Cincinnati Bengals
What they should do: The Bengals fixed their offensive line by paying up the ringer for them in free agency. Was that the right move? The answer is yes. Joe Burrow will now have more confidence holding onto that ball like he loves to do so much. Now that the Bengals took care of that, they have some options here. They are not in dyer need of any position so I say go with the best player available and that might be a tight end like Jelani Woods. But being that nobody listens to me….
My Mock Pick: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
It would be a huge mistake to pass on Elam if you are going defensive back here. Elam played really well to open the 2021 season and a very impressive performance against Alabama. 6’2 height with a 4.39 forty tells me that he has the tangibles to be a great NFL corner.
What they should do: Here is the team that will decide if two or three quarterbacks are selected in the first round of this draft. There are actual reports though saying the Lions might stay put on their first three picks not involving a quarterback. I can’t believe that they would pass this far on a QB. The worst thing this team can do is to be mediocre and miss out on a QB this year AND next. Draft a QB here and if you wait, you might miss out if a team wants Ritter or Corrall that will trade up to 33 with Jacksonville.
My Mock Pick: Desmond Ritter, QB, Cincinnati
At 6’4 with 10 inch hands and a 4.52 forty, how can you go wrong here? He also made the playoffs on a group of 5 team. Tall, huge hands and knows when to run. He was the second leading rusher on the Bear Cats and could be a Josh Allen type QB for any team. Sometimes I think that, maybe this guy, is number 1 of this class.
2 free draft plays:
Jameson Williams over 12.5 – 1 star
Patriots Select a LB for their 1st Pick +300 – 1 star
