Another damn good day in betting. Clippers winning would have been sweet, but we attacked the right angles and we’ve hit 80% of our single bets the last 4 days- not too damn shabby! Onto a big Saturday!
NBA Picks:
MIN/MEM 1Q over 60.5, 1 unit
MIN/MEM 1H over 120, 1.5 units
The full game total is pretty damn high, especially for a playoff game that’s bound to slow down at some point in the 2nd half, as most do, and that’s bound to have some high-pressure moments. These two young teams aren’t tested enough to trust in the final rounds, but it’s more probable to assume that both units will demonstrate the same explosive offense and pace we’ve seen all year in the first half of this contest. Ja Morant has already come out and said, in so many words, that they’re going to ram it down Minnesota’s throat. The front court infiltration will be constant for the Grizzlies, and we know Minnesota can murder teams from beyond the arc. I see a lot of points early – taking both overs.
Raptors +4.5, 1 unit
If this goes up, we may take it for more. Toronto has played Philly REALLY well this season, proving that they have the length and tenacity to limit Embiid and slow down Philly’s once-potent offense. The starting 5 for Toronto, which matters more in the postseason, is every bit as talented as the Sixers. Harden is as much a disruptor as he is a talent, and I don’t trust Harris, Thybulle, or Maxey in his reduced role (b/c of Harden) to consistently punch back at a tough, disciplined Raptors team. The hype isn’t fake – Toronto is well-coached, very annoying for opponents on defense, and they have plenty of scoring talent to stay in the game if their defense stumbles (which it rarely has since the all-star break). Don’t be surprised if Toronto takes game 1 and wins this series.
Nuggets/Warriors under 224, 1.5 units
We missed the best number on this but I have the total capped at 218, which is still WAY lower. The Warriors will make life very difficult for Denver, who looked exhausted to end the regular season after having to play their starters for way too many minutes down the stretch. Golden State’s defense looked a lot like its former, more refined self in the last few games to end the regular season, and they’ll need to pester Jokic and dare players like Aaron Gorden and Will Barton to force shots. I think they’ll succeed, and veteran players like Draymond Green and Steph Curry (yes, he’ll be back) will show no lack of effort at home. Both of these units are relatively slower paced – I still see plenty of value on the under here.
MLB Picks
Mets -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.25 units
Again, this is lined too short. Zac Gallen is a quality pitcher but even with some COVID related crap in the Mets dugout, this is a much better lineup. Carrasco hopes to keep correcting last year’s errors; this is another good setup for NYM.
Phillies/Marlins under 8, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Ranger Suarez came into his own last year, putting out some thrilling performances and proving to be one of the sharper up and coming pitchers in baseball. He started off this year on a sour note – I expect him to respond today. Trevor Rogers is a pitcher we trust and he’s been a stalwart of consistency for Miami. The probabilities that this is a lower scoring contest are high.
Cubs/Rockies over 12, 2.10 units to win 2
This is a BIG spot for a Chicago pitcher coming straight out of the minor leagues at Coors Field, and we’ve never trusted Senzatela in these spots. especially at home, where he’s allowed over 1 hit per inning in his career and a high slugging %. This feels like the spot to hit the Coors over angle.
UFC Picks:
Parlay: Baeza and Omargadzhiev, 1 unit to win 1.79 units
Neither of these dudes have easy fights, but they’re both elite takedown artists (especially Omar) and the more skilled, versatile fighter in their matchup. Both are up and comers hungry to keep ascending; I expect each of them to win and why not increase our return with a small parlay? I’m on it.
Belal Muhammad, 1 unit to win 1.46 units
Vincent Luque deserves to be the favorite and few fighters are as sharp and technically savvy. But Belal as an underdog? I have to take that value. Muhammad has a constancy that’s unrelenting and he’s a takedown machine – for as technical as Luque is, Muhammad’s explosion can catch anyone. Value on the dog here.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Premier League is finally back tomorrow morning to kick off our Easter weekend! Had a disappointing Saturday last week with Arsenal not showing up and allowing pulseless Brighton to upset them, despite the lopsided stat sheet. Sunday faired well going 3-1; hammering the home value. A lot of upsets last week… looking for those favorites to bounce back this week….
Soccer Record: 40-39 +7.68 Units
Tottenham Over 2.5 (-114) 1 Unit
These two clubs met not too long ago on March 16th in Brighton. Tottenham took care of business on the road winning 2-0. Looking to tomorrows match Tottenham has not been shy finding the back of the net. They have scored a total 12 goals in their last 3 matches and I do not foresee that type of production slowing down. As I have tweeted out last week for my money Heung-Min Son has been playing at the upmost top/most consistent level of any body in the league. He currently ranks second in the league behind Salah in goals at 17, and not too far behind his team mate Harry Kane with 12 rounding out the top 5. Plain and simple Tottenham scores. We know Brighton has not been lighting up the net, but last week they at least broke that awful streak of 1 goal in 7 matches by finding 2 against Arsenal. This type of win/goal production against a higher tier opponent may have given them some more confidence to carry over on the road. Regardless Tottenham has shown on a consistent basis to pour it on, if we can get a bonus goal by Brighton great… if not no biggie. Tottenham will take care of business.
Other picks will be available to Premium Members found at the link below:
Thanks to one of my customers who reminded me I left one previous play off. We got this earlier this week:
Nuggets/Warriors under 224, 1.5 units
We missed the best number on this but I have the total capped at 218, which is still WAY lower. The Warriors will make life very difficult for Denver, who looked exhausted to end the regular season after having to play their starters for way too many minutes down the stretch. Golden State’s defense looked a lot like its former, more refined self in the last few games to end the regular season, and they’ll need to pester Jokic and dare players like Aaron Gordon and Will Barton to force shots. I think they’ll succeed, and veteran players like Draymond Green and Steph Curry (yes, he’ll be back) will show no lack of effort at home. Both of these units are relatively slower paced – I still see plenty of value on the under here.
Both of these teams are coming off of a nice day of rest and quite surprisingly, for the Diamondbacks anyway, both are coming off of nice wins. Let’s face it, both of these teams are projected to go in two completely different directions this year. The Mets are a world series contender while the Diamondbacks might be the worst team in baseball. Looking at stats like wOBA and wRC+, Arizona is the worst batting team in baseball ranking dead last in both departments while the Mets rank number 3rd, and 2nd respectively. Arizona’s pitcher Zach Davies was just awful last year for the Cubbies having a 5.78 ERA and a 5.45 FIP. Chris Bassett on the other hand was paid well coming from the Athletics to the Mets this year boasting a 3.15 ERA and a 3.34 FIP from 2021. Fading the Diamondbacks coming off of a win feels like a no brainer here, and I am going to grab the run line.
Thank God it’s Friday and thank God we’ll have consistent NBA playoff action for a long time now. The play-in finish should be entertaining tonight, and we’ve hit on 5 of our last 6 MLB picks!
Let’s keep rollin’ – premiums are below:
NBA Picks (Friday and Saturday):
Hawks -2.5, to win 1.5 units
I just can’t trust the Cavs and Atlanta’s playoff experience certainly showed itself last night in that big win. I expect the Cavs to offer more resistance (Charlotte’s defense was non-existent), but Atlanta’s bested this team 3 times and recently by margin. The bottom line here is that Atlanta just has more gifted shooters than Cleveland. Under pressure, that’s a big deal. You need confidence in these intense environments and it was obvious that Atlanta had plenty Wednesday night. I really liked the play of ATL’s bigs too, who played more aggressive and determined. It doesn’t matter if the Cavs front court has success, and it doesn’t matter if Jarrett Allen returns either. Not for me. Trae and a crisp perimeter offense should roll here. All Hawks for me.
NO/LAC under 216, 2 units
The Pelicans only had 95 possessions in that contest, happy to run the floor very slow and pick their shots judiciously. Since the All-Star break, LAC is one of the slowest paced teams in the association at only 97 possessions per game. More of LAC’s defensive advantages are below, but this tracks as a slow-paced, testy matchup where the Pelicans mid-range won’t come as easy and where the Pelicans range will challenge LAC’s shooters consistently. Love this under.
Parlay: Clippers ML + under 216.5, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
Even in a loss, there was A LOT to like about the Clippers Tuesday night and this is a correlated parlay that makes sense. The Pelicans slowed down their play-in game tremendously, and no team will cover the Pelicans’ stars better than LAC. The talent of the Clippers’ wing defenders is exceptional, and for a team like New Orleans that doesn’t rely on 3 pointers (unlike Minnesota, which ultimately killed the Clippers), this is in LAC’s wheelhouse to dominate. The line is very sharp, so let’s capitalize on a home team, with more rest, who looked incredibly sharp Tuesday and probably should have won that game. It’s too early for the Pelicans to ascend.
MIN/MEM 1Q over 60.5, 1 unit
MIN/MEM 1H over 120, 1.5 units
The full game total is pretty damn high, especially for a playoff game that’s bound to slow down at some point in the 2nd half, as most do, and that’s bound to have some high-pressure moments. These two young teams aren’t tested enough to trust in the final rounds, but it’s more probable to assume that both units will demonstrate the same explosive offense and pace we’ve seen all year in the first half of this contest. Ja Morant has already come out and said, in so many words, that they’re going to ram it down Minnesota’s throat. The front court infiltration will be constant for the Grizzlies, and we know Minnesota can murder teams from beyond the arc. I see a lot of points early – taking both overs.
Raptors +4.5, 1 unit
If this goes up, we may take it for more. Toronto has played Philly REALLY well this season, proving that they have the length and tenacity to limit Embiid and slow down Philly’s once-potent offense. The starting 5 for Toronto, which matters more in the postseason, is every bit as talented as the Sixers. Harden is as much a disruptor as he is a talent, and I don’t trust Harris, Thybulle, or Maxey in his reduced role (b/c of Harden) to consistently punch back at a tough, disciplined Raptors team. The hype isn’t fake – Toronto is well-coached, very annoying for opponents on defense, and they have plenty of scoring talent to stay in the game if their defense stumbles (which it rarely has since the all-star break). Don’t be surprised if Toronto takes game 1 and wins this series.
MLB Picks:
Mets Alt Line -2.5, 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Not overthinking this. Chris Bassitt looked sensational in his first mound appearance in a Mets cap, NYM’s bats are hot, they’re at home, and they’re facing probably the worst team in MLB (again), off a win. Night night, D-Backs.
SF/CLE under 8, 1.1 units to win 1 unit
The definition of fake news is Guardians’ games blowing up totals. Not gonna happen today. Rodon and Plesac lead these two squads into a matchup of ace pitchers and both of these lineups are due for some regression. Their bullpens are also well rested for a new series. I expect fewer hits and not a lot of points.
CHC/COL first 5 under 5, 1 unit to win 1.05 units
This number is inflated because it’s Coors Field and they whack homers a lot there blah blah we get it. But this isn’t about the bats; it’s about 2 starting pitchers who looked sensational in their openers. G. Marquez pitched 7 innings for a 0.43 WHIP and 1.29 ERA. M. Stroman went for 5 innings and held a 1.80 ERA against a talented Milwaukee lineup. A total of 5 feels 1-2 runs too high for these two studs.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have an absolutely massive slate of NHL games today. Most of these games have some serious playoff implications so it should be a great night of hockey. Instead of my usual article I’m going to try and breakdown as many games as possible. Just a heads up, I may or may not have a play in everyone.
St. Louis Blues @ Buffalo Sabres
The Blues look to be rounding into playoff form going 8-1-1 in their last 10 games. They’re currently tied to Minnesota for 2nd place in the Central Division. It’s likely that they’ll end up 2/3 unless one of them falters down the stretch and Nashville can win out. St Louis’ offense has been solid all year ranking 5th but, has been even better in their last 10 averaging 4.40 GF per game. In those games, they’ve been on par defensively so nothing noteworthy there.
The Sabres have also been on an absolute tear as of late knocking off Toronto in their last game 5-2. I’m not sure what Don Granato has done but, it’s something special. This team looks to have life and given all the prospects and three first round draft picks, they’ll definitely be a threat in the next few years. Buffalo is coming off of a tough stretch of games against some of the leagues top teams and faired pretty well despite going 2-3 in their last 5. The Sabres offense has found a spark and their top line of Skinner-Thompson-Tuch has been playing exceptionally well.
The Blues are currently -200 on the money-line while the Sabres are around +175. The total has been set at 6.5 and is slightly juiced to the under at -115. These teams have met once before this season where St. Louis won 5-3. Personally this is a stay away game, the Blues haven’t been as dominant on the road and given how well the Sabres have been playing, anything could happen. I do believe St. Louis will win this game but, I think the Sabres +1.5 (-140) have some value. They’ve covered the puck-line in three of their last four at home against some very top their teams.
Ottawa Senators @ Boston Bruins
I put up a poll on my Instagram (@Gator Sports Betting) to figure out what final game the people wanted me to breakdown and everyone chose BOS/OTT, so here we are.
The Senators have been eliminated from the playoffs but, are a team that does have a nice young core that they can build around in the coming years. They’ve been playing some better hockey as of late going 5-4-1 in their last 10 games. In their most previous game they defeated the Detroit Red Wings 4-1. While the Senators offense hasn’t been great this year ranking 26th in GF per game, they have been averaging 3.50 in their last 10 games. Their defense has also been playing much better only allowing 2.90 GA compared to their season average of 3.22.
The Bruins come into this matchup losing their last two games to St. Louis and Washington. Despite those two losses, they’ve still gone 6-4 in their last 10 games. However, if you’re just looking at their last 5 games, they’ve gone 2-3. The Bruins have been much better at capitalizing on scoring chances which has led to an uptick in offensive production. However, their defense has struggled as they’ve been dealing with some injuries.
Boston is the heavy home favorite in this matchup with the total being set at 6, slightly juiced to the under. Anton Forsberg and Linus Ullmark are the goalies tonight with Forsberg being hit or miss while Ullmark has really been solid in his last few starts. However, despite Boston’s woes as of late they are the better team and I lean Boston -1.5 here.
Washington Capitals @ Toronto Maple Leafs
The Washington Capitals are currently sitting in the 2nd Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference with no real threat. It’s likely they’ll face off against the Florida Panthers in the first round. Washington starts a grueling five game road trip tonight in Toronto where they’ll go on to face Montreal, Colorado, Vegas, and Arizona. They come into tonight’s game on a four game winning streak where they’ve beaten some pretty impressive teams. Their offense has been scoring at a higher rate as of late while their defense hasn’t been as solid when compared to their season average of goals against. It looks as though Vanecek will get the start tonight who hasn’t been as impressive as Samsonov.
Despite Toronto’s recent performance against Buffalo, they’ve also been playing some great hockey recently. They’ve gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and have been almost able to score at will during that stretch. Their defense hasn’t been great all year and has taken a turn for the worse in the past ten games. The Maple Leafs are currently in 2nd place in the Atlantic with Tampa Bay breathing down their neck. However, regards of who finishes 2nd or 3rd it looks like they’ll be matched up against each other in the first round.
Toronto is the home favorite in this matchup sitting at -160 on the money-line. The total is set at 6.5 and juiced to over at -120. Of all the top teams in the East, the Leafs have struggled the most against playoff teams. Since returning from injury, Jack Campbell hasn’t been great allowing an average of three goals against in those four starts. Given the goalie matchups and the offensive production from these teams, I like the over in this matchup.
Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators
While Edmonton has gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, they have dropped their two most recent games to Colorado and Minnesota. They wrap up their three game road trip tonight vs a Nashville team that’s in a tight playoff race. The Oilers are currently in 2nd place in the Pacific but only have two points on the 3rd place Kings. Again, like with Tampa and Toronto, we’ll most likely see these two teams matched up against each other in the first round. Edmonton’s offense has been slightly as of late, averaging 3.80 Goals For in their last 10. Their defense, which ranks 18th in goals against, also has been better during that stretch.
Touched on Nashville a little bit before, but they are grinding for points right now. They haven’t been great going 5-4-1 in their most recent 10 games. The Predators are in the middle of five game home stretch. Looking at Nashville’s remaining schedule it is absolutely brutal where they face six playoff teams in their remaining eight games after tonight. This team is solid offensively and defensively when looking at base metrics. They also have a solid goaltender in Saros. However, the issue for them is that their offense and defense have been underperforming as of late. If they want to get in the playoffs, they need to turn things around asap.
Looking at the lines as they stand, its a pick ’em. Nashville has been better at home this season while Edmonton hasn’t been as dominant at home. Both teams need these points as Edmonton wants home ice advantage while Nashville is looking to make the playoffs. This is one of the toughest games on the slate betting wise. I lean Nashville here but I don’t have enough confidence in them to make it an official pick.
Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
The Wild are tied for 2nd place of the Central division with the St. Louis Blues, which I talked about above. Since the addition of Marc-Andre Fleury, Cam Talbot has come to life and it now looks as through Minnesota has one of the best goaltending duos heading into the playoffs. They’ve gone 7-1-2 in their last 10 games but did lose to the Blues 4-3 in OT during that stretch. Their offense has been on par during those ten games while their defense has really been clicking. They look to be a complete team and will certainly be a threat in the West.
Dallas has the 2nd Wild Card spot in the Western Conference right now with Vegas right behind them. They’ll actually face the Golden Knights down the road on April 26th. The Stars have gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and enter this game on a two game winning streak. The Stars are a weird team because they aren’t great offensively ranking 19th in Goals For and 15th in Goals Against. However, that system has seemed to work given their current spot in the standings.
Minnesota is -120 on the money line with the total has been set at 6.0. Dallas has been much better at home while Minnesota has been worse on the road. Again, this is a tough game in regards to the side and total. No official play here but I lean the over here given how both goalies have been playing recently.
Vegas Golden Knights @ Calgary Flames
The Golden Knights are on the verge of missing the playoffs despite their loaded roster. They’ve gone 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and are coming off a tough loss to the Canucks in their most recent game. Offensively, the Golden Knights have been better in their last 10 while their defense hasn’t been as good. Vegas does generate a ton of scoring chances but, they aren’t great at capitalizing on them. If their Shooting % goes up, they could have one of the best offenses in the NHL.
Calgary is sitting a top of the Pacific division and look to be main contender to take down the Avalanche out West. They’ve gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and enter this crucial matchup on a five game winning streak. Looking at their schedule ahead, it does feature a lot of playoff teams but I’m sure Calgary will be the favorite in most of those games, if not all of them. They have one of the most complete teams in the NHL from the top down. The addition of Tyler Toffoli has solidified up their top six and given their recent form, it’s hard to find any negatives.
This game obviously means a lot more for Vegas than Calgary but with that being said, the Flames aren’t going to roll over here. They’ve been extremely dominant at home while Vegas has struggled on the road. The Flames are the home favorite currently listed at -160 on the money-line with the total being set at 6.0. Lehner, who’s the expected starter for Vegas has been hit or miss in his last few starts while Markstrom, the expected starter for Calgary, has remained consistent. The Flames did beat them 6-0 in their most recent matchup and despite the revenge and desperation factors, I think the Flames win this one.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Hey gang! We have started the young MLB season by going 8-9. Definitely nothing to brag about but now that we have over a weeks worth of stats to implement into our handicapping it will only get better as the season goes on!! I have 3 Premium plays for clients today and decided to give one of them out for free below!
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The St Louis Cardinals head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin today to face their divisional foe Brewers. Veteran right-hander Adam Wainwright gets the nod for the Cards. He was excellent in his first start as he gave up 5 hits, 0 runs and struck out 6 Pirates in his first 6 innings of the season. Righty Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewcrew. After a rough spring training, he has started the season slow, pitching only 3.2 innings in his first start while giving up 7 runs and only fanning 2. Saying that, both pitchers were excellent a season ago and Woodruff will return to form. The deciding factors in this game lie with the offense and the bullpen. The Cardinals haven’t missed a beat with the bats since the 2nd half of last season where they ranked 4th in hard hit% and 5th in wRC+. They currently rank 2nd in wOBA .376 and 153 wRC+ while MIL is in the bottom 3rd of the league in both stats. Milwaukee’s bullpen has started the season with a 1.40 WHIP over the last week and although they own a solid FIP, it means that runners are getting on the bases. The Cardinals pen opens the season pitching to a 1.09 WHIP and 3.23 FIP and has also returned to 2021 form. I like the Cards to win this one outright and for us to get plus money is a gift in my opinion. Take Cardinals ML +127
