Bets we’re taking now, more detailed explanation coming later.
Hawks/Heat 1Q under 56, 1.5 units
There’s little to no reason for me to believe this game will “start fast.” The Heat are comfortable playing their style of basketball and they absolutely locked down Trae last time. Trae will do better in Game 2 but this should still tipoff with another cautious, defense-oriented feel.
Timberwolves +7, 1 units
Minnesota just matches up too well with Memphis and they’re 3 point shooting can keep them in any contest. Scary team – I think they keep it close or win again.
Let’s be honest. No one likes laying big prices in baseball. That’s why the run line is there. Myself, I will rarely ever play a number over -200. Sometimes however you look at all the information and the way it looks, the line should be even higher. That was the case as I started looking at the Orioles/Athletics match-up where I got the A’s at -190. Let’s be honest, it’s baseball so anything can happen and you’d think I’d be even more gun shy after the Orioles beat the Yankees on Sunday who were -200 favorites since I had money on the Yanks. I put this line at -230 though so I am getting some value here and let me tell you why.
First off, the pitchers taking the mound for the Orioles are night and day. Bruce Zimmerman who went yesterday is a 5th round pick who put up excellent numbers in AA and AAA, and is now starting to translate some of those successes over to the Majors. Spenser Watkins who goes tonight, is a 30th round pick who hasn’t had an xFIP below 5 since he was in AA in 2019. He had a full season K rate last year of 5.76 K/9. That’s not good. Baltimore’s bullpen leads the way in MLB currently with a 2.51 FIP, but the pedigree in that pen looks like the Westminster Kennel Club rejects, and they will start showing their true colors sooner rather than later. The O’s bullpen had a 5.71 ERA in 2021 and they traded arguably their best relieved Cole Sulser before the season. Regression fairies are about to show up for the O’s pen. You might say to me, that the price on the A’s is correct because the Yankees offense is much better and the lineup difference is why the worse pitcher is laying the same number. The Yankees are currently sitting at 25th in runs scored. The Athletics are 1st in MLB, scoring 23 more runs than the Yankees, and 32 more than this Orioles team. Are they getting lucky, the answer is yes a little bit as the OPS is in the bottom half of MLB. But they are also finding ways to manufacture runs and create some big innings. The Phillies, Rays and Blue Jays have been their opponents so far and they have touched up some top tier pitchers already early this season. Small sample size, but the leftovers in Oakland showing some pop.
The other starting pitcher is Athletics remaining ace Frankie Montas. Through a few starts he is striking out more than a batter an inning and walking less than one hitter per 9 innings. All things that will continue to benefit the Athletics, especially against this Orioles offense who has been awful so far. They lead the majors in strikeouts per game, whiffing 11.1 times per contest. They have struck out double digit times in 6 of the 9 games. So far they have only hit 4 Home runs through 9 games, and they are 27th in OPS raking at a less than robust .597. The wind should be blowing out tonight in Oakland, and Montas kept the ball on the ground 42.8% of the time in 2021. Spenser Watkins was at 33.5%. Montas is also really undervalued today in DFS if you play that, as he is currently only $7300 at Draftkings. He will be in all my lineups tonight for sure. I also trust Oakland’s bullpen to hold a lead here as well.
I am flat out laying the juice, and hitting the run line. This is almost a combined 3 Unit play for me. I think the F5 number having about the same odds is nice, but the -.5 runs isn’t nearly as good as the full game run line, which I got with a little +money to make it worthwhile. This isn’t an offense built to come back in the late innings.
Entering the new week, I sit at 10-10-1, +0.48u in the young MLB season. I’m rolling with a pair of plays for tonight looking to build on a 2-0, +2.2u Saturday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Angels F5 ML(+143) @ Astros–7:10 PM CT
The Astros are simply not in good current form offensively. If you take away a lone 13 run output against the Angels last weekend, this team is averaging just 2.25 runs/game across their other 8 games. This will be their first game back at home after a 10 game road trip to begin the season, and they’ll have zero days rest to settle back in and will lose 2 hours after spending a good amount of time on the West coast. Angels SP Michael Lorenzen looked dominant in season debut against the Marlins; the verdict is still out on whether Lorenzen can have a successful 2022 campaign, but I do think he carries the form we saw in his last start into tonight. The Angels enter tonight off of 3 straight wins in Arlington that saw them average over 8 runs/game. Astros SP Luis Garcia has enjoyed a very solid start to his young career, but he hasn’t had that same success against this Angels lineup. Shohei Ohtani and Jared Walsh are a combined 11 for 23 with 4 HR’s against Garcia in past matchups, and the supplemental pieces in this Angels lineup are in good current form as well. Mike Trout will be out of the lineup today, but I’m not going to let that keep me off the Angels in this “one-off” spot. The Astros will almost assuredly round into form as they settle into this 6 game home stand, but this is not the spot in which they do so. Give me the Angels F5 at a great price.
*MLB(1u): Phillies/Rockies OVER 11(-115)–7:40 PM CT
I backed Rockies SP Chad Kuhl in his last start at Globe Life Field, but he is not a guy I think will fare well pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field this season. Kuhl had a dreadful 7.32 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 2.3 HR/9 pitching away from PNC Park last season, and 4 walks in his last start don’t inspire much confidence about what we’ll get from him tonight. The Phillies lineup struggled for most of the weekend in Marlins Park, but this is a dream “get right” spot for a lineup that can explode at any time. The Rockies bullpen has actually held up well through 9 games, but I don’t believe that to be sustainable. Phillies SP Aaron Nola has struggled through 2 starts this season, and I don’t believe this is the spot in which he turns things around. Nola has been considerably worse on the road throughout his career, and that is likely to be exacerbated pitching in Coors Field. While the sample size is small, five projected starters in this Rockies lineup have a career OPS of 1.000 or higher against Nola, with Kris Bryant sitting just outside the threshold with a .949 OPS. The Phillies bullpen has been pretty mediocre to start the season, and this is a tough spot facing a Rockies lineup that was the best in baseball hitting in their home ballpark last season. A total at 11 might seem high, but I don’t believe it to be high enough in this particular matchup.
The MLB Patriots Day Play is on Boston at 11 Am Eastern. Boston will look to take the finale and we note that they are 10-0 at home in April games that start at 12 noon or earlier if they had less than 9 strikeouts and hit less than 2 home runs in their last game and todays starters which is Bundy for the Twins went less than 8 innings in his last start. Look for Boston to take another Patriots Day game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Another instance where it’d be hard to complain about our NBA results, going 3-1 with the winning parlay Sunday. I’ll keep asking for your patience since this is “moving week” for my family and I; write ups may be shorter in that respect, but as you know I keep my DMs open so feel free to ask Qs any time. Onto the picks!
NBA Picks:
Raptors +7.5, 1.5 units and
Nuggets +7, 1.5 units
Both the 76ers and Warriors had a fantastic start to their series. Literally everything bounced their way, and their shooting percentages from the field and from beyond the arc were objectively absurd. In the playoffs, that usually doesn’t continue. The Raptors are too well-coached and Jokic is too talented to allow the same thing to happen again. I’m betting that both underdogs, who are still very live to win these series, show up big tonight. Think about this – how tremendous would it be for Toronto and Denver if they won game 2 and tied the series, knowing they’re returning home for 2 straight games? That’d be absolutely massive. They’ll fight very hard to make that a reality tonight, since going down 0-2 is something they’ll desperately want to avoid.
Raptors/76ers 1H under 112, 1 unit and
Nuggets/Warriors 1H under 115, 1 unit
Well if I like the underdogs to come out fiery and motivated, I have to like these first half unders. Denver and Toronto aren’t their best going toe-to-toe with the superior shooters of their opponent. The front court length of Toronto and the tenacity of Denver’s guards can make life difficult for their foes and I think we see the best version of those defenses early. And it ain’t like Philly and Golden State are schleps on defense, either. Probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to correlate some of these picks into small parlays, if you have the bankroll. Since I project these games to be a battle early with more pressure than usual, I like both 1H unders to win 1 unit each.
MLB Picks:
MIN/BOS over 8.5, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
Two very hittable pitchers take the mound in an early game in Boston. This over is juiced for a reason and Minnesota’s bats are way overdue for an explosion. I like points in this contest.
Dodgers -1.5, 1.15 units to win 1 unit
This is a really tough spot for the Braves, off a late Sunday highlight game on the road, to now travel to LAD and face their ace. All Dodgers for me who, it turns out, are still pretty damn elite.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Seeing some money come in on the over in this game despite the 1-3 O/U in their season series. Market likely expecting another offensive explosion from the Bucks against a Bulls team who has allowed 117 or more points in 8 of their L11. Heading into the playoffs I expect successful teams to step up the defense and in this series the Bucks have held the Bulls to an average of 101. Getting the 110 on this team total is likely due to the high scoring affair in their last matchup where the Bulls put up 106. We’re seeing some extra juice to the under for the Bulls today, so I’ll take a chance on the Bucks defense stepping up again who will have the height advantage in this one.
One additonal play tonight in Sunday Night Baseball going at my Patreon!
3 MASSIVE NBA Round 1 game 1 Power System are up and one is the Opening Weekend Play of the Year, we also have the MLB ESPN Game Of The Month and More. Happy Easter to those celebrating. French Ligue 1 play below.
Two of the Top French Ligue 1 teams take to the pitch here today and we will be backing The favored PSG outfit at 2:45 eastern as they are the #1 team and have scored the most goals in the table. In fact, they are the only squad to touch the 70-goal mark, while only three other squads have gone past 50. PSG only team yet to maintain an unbeaten record at home. In fact, barring a single draw, they have a 100% winning record at this venue. They have won 13 of 15 at this venue over a good Marsielle team that has the best road record in the table. These meetings have tended to trend higher in totals as PSG has scored 2 or more at home in the series the last 5 meetings. Look for PSG to bag the win. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
Pretty good day last night, unfortunate that the DEN/GS went over because that game was moving real slow in the 2nd QTR and 3rd QTR. Ah well. Things are moving fast this Easter morning so these write ups won’t be as detailed. I’ll try to answer questions, if you have any, this afternoon, but please be patient – have family over, etc. Here are the picks:
NBA Picks:
Parlay: Heat win 1Q, 1Q under 56.5, 1 unit to win 1.94 units
The Heat have a significant rest advantage and they’ll be ready to lock down their opponent. Miami moves slow, and this should be a battle in the paint. Miami probably has to catch a rhythm too.
BKL/BOS under 224.5, 1.5 units
This has under written all over it for me. The Celtics will NEED to assert themselves and slow this game down to win it, and even though Brooklyn has obvious offensive brilliance on their squad, few places are more challenging than TD Garden to maintain offensive efficiency. This will be a testy battle throughout, love the under.
Bucks 1H -6.5, 1.5 units and
Suns -6.5, 1 unit
There’s not much nuance in these picks. I think both the Bucks and Suns, both of whom are superior in every way against today’s opponent, want to start off hot, at home, and they overwhelm them in the 1H.
MLB Picks:
NYY/BAL over 8.5, 1 unit to win 1 unit
I’m just not sure why this number is so low. Baltimore is historically feisty with the Yankees and these aren’t pitchers we trust.
Cubs ML, 1 unit to win 1.07
Are the Rockies a formidable team this year? I hope so, I like that venue in Denver and I’ve always thought they’d be a cool team to cheer for. Can’t take them today with the inferior pitcher, though. Cubs bats are due to awaken.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
The main event here is where we find some value here in the welterweight class. Vicente is ranked 5th in this stacked weight class with Belal ranking 6th, but I think that there is a bigger gap between these fighters. This Matchup actually happened a long time ago on November 12th of 2016 when Luque knocked out Muhammed in the first round with ease. Since then, Muhammed has went 9-1-1 and Luque went 10-2. Both fighters fought about the same strength of schedule except, Muhammad would have had an extra loss over Edwards had he not have gotten out of that Leon Edwards fight with an accidental eye poke. Looking at how these fighters match up, Muhammad is the wrestler who will be looking to get points through takedowns and Luque is the striker who will certainly be the aggressor. In saying that, Luque is no stranger to the mat himself as he has finished two very good fighters in Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley via submission in the first round during his last two fights. Luque is the younger fighter at 30 years old to Belal being 33. Vicente also has the striking advantage at 5.65 significant strikes per minute to Belal at 4.55 respectively. I am not impressed with the schedule that Belal has had since his last fight vs Luque, and I think this match should be an easy victory most likely within the distance, but the -170 makes it just fine for me to just take Vicente for the win.
Saturday card has 2 big NBA Round 1 Game 1 plays one is a 6* and the Other an Executive Level TIER 1, There is a 5* NHL Power Play, the American League Total of the Month, Soccer and a USFL Play. MLB Comp Play below.
The MLB Comp play is on the Over 8.5 runs in the St. Louis at Milwaukee game at 7:10 eastern. The game fits a Powerful April Specific Database system that has gone over 13 of 16 times for home favorites off a home favored loss at -155 or higher and scoring 3 or less runs vs an opponent off a road dog win scoring 10 or more runs. Both Matz for the Cards and Houser for the Brewers struggled in their first start. Matz who never been great on the road was hammered for 7 runs in 3 innings while Houser failed to get out of the 4th inning. The Cards had gone over in 15 of 20 in game 3 of a series and 5 of 7 on the road. The Brewers had gone over 5 of 7 in game 3 of a series and also 5 of 7 vs a pitcher with a 1.30 or worse WHIP. Look for this game to push over the total. On Saturday a Massive Card is up with our NBA Playoff Payoffs up including a huge TIER 1 NBA Side and a top rated 6*. In MLB We have our American League 100% Total of the Month, a 5* NHL, USFL and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and Cash out all day and night. For the MLB Comp play. Go over the total, St.Louis and Milwaukee. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
