I lost my lone MLB play on the Padres F5 yesterday, but through 1 week of the season, I sit at 8-7-1, +1.78u. I’m rolling with a pair of MLB plays for tonight looking to get us some momentum into this weekend. If you’d like to receive a text whenever I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Angels/Rangers F5 UNDER 4.5(-120)–7:05 PM CT
Rangers SP Dane Dunning held a respectable 3.09 ERA at home last year, but what’s even more impressive is that he allowed just 0.5 HR/9 at Globe Life Field. It’s not hard to see why the sinkerballer’s 2.35 groundball/fly ball rate would play well in that park. The Angels do have some thunder in the top of their order, but 5-9 is very manageable. Meanwhile, Shohei Ohtani will tote the rubber for the Angels looking to build off his last start that saw him strike out 9 Astros hitters in 4.2 IP and yield just 1 run. Ohtani’s road numbers from last year are inflated from 2 blowup starts in Yankee Stadium and Minute Maid Park, but his WHIP, K/9, and HR/9 all mirror his home numbers. The Rangers are another top-heavy order with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager and then a ton of fringe AAA players throughout the rest of their order. Given how big this ballpark plays, I envision each pitcher limiting the damage and being able to feast on the lack of depth each lineup has.
*MLB(1u): Rockies -1.5(+145) vs Cubs–7:40 PM CT
The Rockies are a completely different team playing in their home ballpark. If you don’t believe me, consider the fact that the Rockies compiled an .817 OPS at home last year vs just a .638 OPS on the road. This lineup got better this offseason adding Kris Bryant and Randal Grichuk, and we’ve seen things click immediately. They’ll get an advantageous matchup today facing Justin Steele, a lefty with just 62 innings under his belt over his career. The Cubs bullpen is below average to begin with, and they’ll enter tonight having gone pretty deep in their ‘pen each of the last 2 nights. Colorado, meanwhile, enjoyed a nice day off yesterday; surprisingly enough, their bullpen has recorded a very impressive 0.91 WHIP so far this season. Kyle Freeland will start today’s game looking bounce back after a rough start vs the Dodgers. Freeland has had somewhat of an up-and-down career in Colorado, but he still has the advantage over Steele with this being his 6th year pitching at Coors Field. The Cubs scored just 2 runs each of the past 2 games against an inferior Pirates pitching staff, and I’m not scared to play against this lineup with the way they’re currently constructed. I really don’t think people have caught on to just how good the Rockies are at home, and I think this line is far too short. Rather than lay any juice, I see more value in taking the +145 on the run line and continuing to trust a team that has shown buy signs early in the season.
Thursday card led by the 100% 2022 NHL Game Of The Year and the National League Game Of The Month going later in the evening. Afternoon Comp play below.
The MLB Comp play is on Milwaukee at 5:15 eastern The Brewers fit an April specific long term system that plays on Home favorites off a road favored win where they scored 4 or less runs and are taking on an opponent off a home win if the posted total is 8 or less. The Brewers have Woodruff going in their home opener. Look for Milwaukee to get the win here. Big Thursday card is up and has the 2022 NHL Play of the Year headlining along with the Perfect System N.L. Game of the Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we are off to a fast start in MLB and top 3 ranked in NHL. For the MLB Comp play. Make it Milwaukee. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
After taking a deeper dive into last night’s game, we have to take the under in the NO/LAC game tomorrow as a single play.
The Pelicans only had 95 possessions in that contest, happy to run the floor very slow and pick their shots judiciously. Since the All-Star break, LAC is one of the slowest paced teams in the association at only 97 possessions per game. And we already spoke to the defensive advantages LAC has here.
Hopefully this shit doesn’t go into OT, but I love under 216 for 2 units.
We’re catching a groove in MLB; can’t say the Hornets EVER caught a groove last night. Onto today’s picks and our lookahead picks for Friday.
NBA Picks (Friday):
Hawks -2.5, to win 1.5 units
I just can’t trust the Cavs and Atlanta’s playoff experience certainly showed itself last night in that big win. I expect the Cavs to offer more resistance (Charlotte’s defense was non-existent), but Atlanta’s bested this team 3 times and recently by margin. The bottom line here is that Atlanta just has more gifted shooters than Cleveland. Under pressure, that’s a big deal. You need confidence in these intense environments and it was obvious that Atlanta had plenty Wednesday night. I really liked the play of ATL’s bigs too, who played more aggressive and determined. It doesn’t matter if the Cavs front court has success, and it doesn’t matter if Jarrett Allen returns either. Not for me. Trae and a crisp perimeter offense should roll here. All Hawks for me.
Parlay: Clippers ML + under 216.5, 1 unit to win 1.97 units
Even in a loss, there was A LOT to like about the Clippers Tuesday night and this is a correlated parlay that makes sense. The Pelicans slowed down their play-in game tremendously, and no team will cover the Pelicans’ stars better than LAC. The talent of the Clippers’ wing defenders is exceptional, and for a team like New Orleans that doesn’t rely on 3 pointers (unlike Minnesota, which ultimately killed the Clippers), this is in LAC’s wheelhouse to dominate. The line is very sharp, so let’s capitalize on a home team, with more rest, who looked incredibly sharp Tuesday and probably should have won that game. It’s too early for the Pelicans to ascend.
MLB Picks:
Brewers -1.5, 1 unit to win 1.35
The Brewers are finding their rhythm and there’s a lot of fake news coming out of St. Louis. The Cards just won a series against Pittsburgh (slow clap) and snagged a win 2 days ago against KC (yawn). Wainwright had a phenomenal opening start to the season, so it’s reasonable to assume the old hag will see some negative regression today. Brandon Woodruff got BLASTED in his first start but make no mistake about it, he’s still one of the best starters in MLB. Expect a big rebound from him and a Brewers win by margin. A look at an NRFI or a first 5 under/MIL win isn’t a bad idea either.
Cubs/Rockies over 11, 1.1 units to win 1
Justin Steele is a solid young prospect but he got whacked in his last contest against Colorado. The Rockies look ultra confident in their bats right now; they’re an early top 5 offense in a ton of important categories (AVG, OBP, wOBA), and lord knows Coors Field loves to enable home runs. This total is still too low; I think we see it get into the teens.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have a great show for you today! Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports is back to discuss a first look at the NFL 2022 draft! First, we discuss who our top 5 quarterbacks are. Next, Ron and Kiev go over what teams should do at the top of the first round. Then, Kiev and Ron go over some position totals with a few FREE Plays for the 1st round of the NFL draft. Finally, Kiev talks some UFC on ESPN 34 with a few plays. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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If I was a betting man (oh wait…), I’d bet that the game 1 line between TOR/PHI, Raptors +4.5, will revert back to +5 or higher. If it doesn’t, +4.5 is worth a 1 unit play, but I’m going to wait and anticipate more movement. If it goes over 5, this will be greater than a 1 unit wager.
Nets/Celtics under 224, 1.5 units
This has the ingredients of a Nets/Bucks series like we saw last year in the semifinals, with almost every game falling well below the total. The Nets’ offense won’t be able to access the front court or mid-range like they’re used to, and we’ve seen Brooklyn use their length and athleticism to play much better defense lately. The tempo will decrease considerably at various moments, 1) because of how much these teams hate each other and 2) because of how contested every shot will be amidst all the pressure. Both franchises think the title is theirs and in an opening matchup, no basket will come easily. This sets up as an absolute battle for 28 minutes – love the under.
Congrats to Scottie Scheffler who has been on an other worldly tear right now winning four of his last six starts. He never really faltered all tournament and you always felt like he had control. For that reason, this years Master’s and probably since Tiger won in 2019, Sunday hasn’t been all that eventful.
Well… we got killed at The Masters losing every single bet. I’ll always be transparent about the wins and losses. I thought going into Sunday we had a shot at Niemann T20 and Bez T40 to make us even for the week but, both guys had a terrible final round. Despite the losses were still up +22.94 Units in the past ten weeks. It’s going to be a normal card as we’re not going to chase this week.
Tournament Information:
Dates: April 14th, 2022- April 17th, 2022
Location: Hilton Head, South Carolina, USA
Course: Harbour Town Golf Links
Course Type: South Carolina/ Southeast
Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
Length: 7,121 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 132 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass
Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass 0.75″
The RBC Heritage, first debuted on the PGA Tour 53 years ago, in 1969. The venue for this tournament has remained constant since that date.
It is one of five PGA Tour events to be given “invitational” status which limits the field to 132. Along with the small field, the tournament can be more selective as to which golfers qualify for this event. Also, invitational events do not offer Monday qualifying events so the field is set unless any withdraws.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
We head to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. This is one of the shorter courses on Tour that places a premium on approach shots. Given it’s length playing just over 7,100 yards, distance off the tee isn’t all that crucial as we’ve seen given the list of previous winners.
All four of the Par 3’s range between 190-200 yards so you’ll definitely want to take a look at Par 3 Efficiency 175-200 yards. Out of the eleven Par 4’s, six of them range from 400-450 yards. So again, another key stat to look at this week will be Par 4 Efficiency from that range. There’s only three Par 5’s on the course so the scoring opportunities will be slightly limited on that front.
The main defense for the course is the water, which comes into play on half of the holes and the wind. Given the current forecast, it looks as though the wind will definitely be a factor this week but, not like what we saw in 2019.
Scorecard Source: John Haslbauer
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 Yards
Driving Accuracy
Scrambling
Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Given that we’re fresh of the Masters, the field this week is obviously not the strongest. However, it still is a good field that features five players with the Top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings.
Justin Thomas, is the current favorite for the RBC Heritage. He’s listed any where from 12-1 to 14-1 depending on which sportsbook you have access to. JT finished 8th at the Masters last week. So far in every event he’s entered in this year he has made the cut. In his three previous appearances at Harbour Town, he’s also made the cut every time. The last time he played here was in 2020 when he recorded his best finish in this tournament finishing 8th.
Collin Morikawa, who recently took over 2nd in the OWGR, is currenlty listed at 14-1 on most major sportsbooks. He’s coming off a great Sunday performance at the Masters where he finished 5th. Collin has only played in this event twice before finishing 64th in 2020 and 7th in 2021. His elite iron play make him a great fit so we’ll see if he can build off that heading into this event.
Cameron Smith, who finished runner up at the Masters last week is listed at 16-1. He’s had an incredible start to the season winning twice on Tour so far and will look to add to that impressive resume here. Last year he recorded his best finish at this event in five appearances finishing 9th. Given the form he’s in and how well he played here last year, it wouldn’t be a shock if he captures his third win on Tour this year.
Dustin Johnson, who’s currently listed at 18-1, has yet to finish outside the Top 30 in this event in all four of his previous appearances. His best finish here was in 2020 when he finished 13th. Despite those impressive numbers, he has yet to finish inside the Top 10 here.
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
He’s finished inside the Top 20 in 3 of his last four appearances at the RBC Heritage. In his last eight starts on Tour, he has finished inside the Top 20 in seven of them. He’s one of the best ball strikers on Tour and given the length of the course, his lack of distance off the tee wont hurt him.
Kevin Kisner (+220) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 2.20 Units
Kisner’s lack of distance off the tee isn’t a concern this week, like it was last week at the Masters. He’s a great putter and a short game specialist. While he has missed the cut at this event in his previous two appearances, I think he fits the course very well. He’s also in great form finishing 4th at THE PLAYERS Championship and 2nd at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play event.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Mito Pereira (+145) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.45 Units
So far Mito has played in 15 events this year. In eleven of those events he has finished inside the Top 40. However, in those other four events he has missed the cut. He will be making his debut at the RBC Heritage but given the strength of the field, I like his chances to finish T40 this week. Mito is one of the best players on Tour in terms of SG: Approach and SG: Tee to Green. While his short game is of slight concern, he has gained strokes around the green in four of his last five starts.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the RBC Heritage: 4.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
A 1-0 Tuesday brings me to 8-6-1, +2.78u in the young MLB season. I have 1 MLB play going this afternoon in addition to an NBA play I like later tonight. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Padres F5 ML(+115) @ Giants–2:45 PM CT
Padres SP Sean Manaea is coming off a 7 inning, 0 hit performance in Arizona. While this will be a tougher matchup, the Giants struggled mightily against lefties last season, ranking just 26th in OPS vs lefties at home. Manaea is no stranger to this Giants lineup or the Bay Area as he spent six seasons in Oakland, and I believe he has developed into an All-Star caliber arm. It’s really tough going against Giants SP Logan Webb; he had a sub-2.00 ERA at home last season and got the job done for us just last week. However, the Padres were one of the only lineups able to consistently crack Webb last year, tallying 11 runs across 17 innings. 3 guys in the SD order have an OPS above 1.000 against Webb, and adding Luke Voit in the middle of that order makes them even more dangerous. The F5 Under at 3.5 is too low for me to play, but I think this F5 line should be much closer to a pick-em given Manaea’s presence paired with the Giants’ inability to slug against lefties. I’ll take the +115 and back the Padres early in this game.
*NBA(1u): Spurs +5.5(-110) @ Pelicans–8:30 PM CT
I respect the Pelicans for going out and getting CJ McCollum, but I believe that move has overvalued them in the betting markets. Brandon Ingram should return for the Pelicans in this game, but even he is a bit overvalued in my mind(just a 32.7% 3pt shooter). However, my biggest concern for the Pelicans is their defense, which ranks just 20th in defensive efficiency. San Antonio is a fast-paced offense that has improved mightily throughout the course of this season, but they don’t get enough credit for the way they defend. I’m not the biggest Gregg Popovich guy(that’s another conversation), but his system undoubtedly works at this time of the year. Meanwhile, the verdict is still out on whether first-year HC Willie Green will work out in New Orleans. The Spurs found themselves in this play-in tournament last year and put up a valiant effort in a 4-point loss at Memphis. When you combine that experience in this weird spot with the fact the Spurs went 3-1 against the Pelicans this year, do you really think they’re going to blink first tonight? I think there’s a good chance the Spurs get over the hump and win this game outright, but given McCollum is still the best player on the floor, I’ll opt to take the 5.5 points.
What’s up people! Damn good night – too bad the Clippers didn’t cover. Sure as hell played out like they should have, but ya gotta finish there, Clipps. Onto today’s picks!
NBA Picks:
Hawks 1Q -1.5, 1 unit, and
Hornets full game +5, 1 unit
Let’s attack this game two different ways. The Hornets have played Atlanta well this year, splitting the series 2-2, and their two losses were kind of phony. One was against a fully healthy Hawks team (which won’t be the case with John Collins out tonight), and one was an aberration where Charlotte shot like a high school team. We don’t think that’ll be the case Wednesday. Without John Collins, the Hornets should be able to find their way to the front court often. Capela and Hunter and company haven’t been as formidable on defense this season. And once Charlotte finds a rhythm, and I believe they will in the 2nd half, that could create disastrous results for the hometown Hawks. Trae Young is the best player on the court, but Charlotte has more upside on the offensive end and I’d argue, better team chemistry. Atlanta usually starts off hot – they’re one of the best 1st and 2nd QTR offenses in the NBA, while the Hornets have virtually no defense to speak of in the first 24 minutes. At home, I’ll play on Atlanta getting the early lead, but 5 points is too much in what should be a battle as this game nears the final whistle. Remember, these games are win or go home, so the intensity will be at an all-time high in both contests tonight.
Lean Spurs +5, lean under
Long story short, I think this number is pretty damn sharp. Still, when it comes down to pure numbers and probabilities, the Spurs are healthy and shouldn’t be annihilated by the Pelicans in this matchup. Dejounte Murray and his supporting cast have the ability to overwhelm New Orleans if they’re in-sync, and the Pels rely on a highly-efficient mid-range offense to methodically secure their wins. I won’t bet this game but if I had to, my money would be on the road dog.
Nuggets/Warriors under 224, 1.5 units
We missed the best number on this but I have the total capped at 218, which is still WAY lower. The Warriors will make life very difficult for Denver, who looked exhausted to end the regular season after having to play their starters for way too many minutes down the stretch. Golden State’s defense looked a lot like its former, more refined self in the last few games to end the regular season, and they’ll need to pester Jokic and dare players like Aaron Gorden and Will Barton to force shots. I think they’ll succeed, and veteran players like Draymond Green and Steph Curry (yes, he’ll be back) will show no lack of effort at home. Both of these units are relatively slower paced – I still see plenty of value on the under here.
MLB Picks:
Mets/Phillies No Run in First Inning, 1.35 units to win 1
Two pitchers in Scherzer and Nola that are looking to redeem their poor opening starts, I like this game to start off crisp with two seasoned aces.
Brewers/Orioles under 8, 1.15 units to win 1
Burnes and Means could take this game scoreless into the 6th inning, especially after Burnes started his season so poorly. I expect a much cleaner performance from him against a very beatable lineup. Means looks like the O’s most solid pitcher once again, and Milwaukee’s bats haven’t looked all that impressive in the early going.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For we had Chuck, aka @FrancoTheBanker on Twitter to help breakdown Wednesday April 13th’s NHL slate. Matt (@TopCheddarPicks) was unfortunately sick this week but, will be back for the next episode.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically what to look at when interpreting NHL player props.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
NHL News/ Notes
Hot/ Cold Teams
Injury News
Playoff Predictions & Series Preview
Betting Strategies in regards to Play-Offs
Player Props
Recent NHL Trends
You can follow Chuck on Twitter @FrancoTheBanker and Matt on Twitter @TopCheddarPicks.
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
