I mentioned that I like Toronto but their series price at +160 is not advantageous and here’s why: it’s reasonable to assume that the Raptors will be underdogs in every game. In other words, we’ll have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on + money by betting the Raptors in choice spots.
Same goes for Denver.
Added play tonight: Zubac over 19.5 Points/Assists/Rebounds, 1 unit
Zubac will be more important than people realize and he’s solid in situations like this against exceptional competition. Guarding KAT will be no easy task but expect Zubac to play plenty of minutes and eclipse this total.
I didn’t have the start to the week I was looking for, but even so, I sit at 7-6-1, +1.78u in the young MLB season. Today’s card is very tough, but there is 1 play that was too good for me to pass up. I lean Clippers 1H tonight, but I won’t have anything official in the NBA. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Rockies/Rangers F5 UNDER 5.5(+100)–7:05 PM CT
I would understand a total this high if this game were being played at Coors Field, but this matchup will take place at Globe Life Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in the league. Rangers SP Martin Perez really struggled pitching in Fenway Park these past couple of seasons, but on the road, his ERA dropped a full 2 runs/9 innings. He will have the luxury of facing a Rockies lineup that finished dead last in OPS on the road last season. While the Rockies did make improvements to their lineup this offseason, I’m not going to be afraid to go against them when they don’t have the thin air in Colorado aiding them. Perez also spent 7 seasons as a Ranger early in his career, so he should be comfortable with his “new” team. Rockies SP Chad Kuhl is another guy whose results have depended greatly on the ballpark he’s pitching in. As a Pirate last year, he recorded a 2.41 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 0.7 HR/9 at PNC Park(pitcher friendly), while his numbers on the road skyrotted. He probably won’t fit well pitching at Coors Field, but this is an environment that should be advantageous for him. The Rangers obviously added Corey Seager and Marcus Semien this offseason, but aside from those 2 pieces, this lineup is very mediocre. I usually don’t stick my neck out like this for pitchers who have struggled in the past, but I think each has a good chance to record a quality start tonight. This F5 total should be 5 at the most, so getting 5.5 at even money ultimately gets me on this officially. DO NOT play the full game Under here; neither bullpen deserves to be trusted down the stretch.
This is a Subscriber Play. Subscriber Plays are 31-11 last 42 Pick History
Subscribe to my Plays via the OddsBreakers Alan Cashman
MLB
Royals at Cardinals 7:45 pm
Lynch vs Hudson
Pick: STL Over 4.5 (-125 MGM)
Lynch 6.44 ERA last 7 starts
Lynch allowed 4 HR in 12. IP in Spring Training
Right handed batters hit .313 vs Lynch last season
STL has scored 5 or more runs in 5 of last 6 vs KC
Rough start for me in the MLB so far. I’ve been going against the early season under trend too often and haven’t gotten the key hits needed with runners in scoring position. That being said good offenses don’t need those hits to push games over, and so far we have not seen much good offense.
Tylor Megill takes the bump for the Mets today, and he was electric in his first start going 5 IP against the Nats, giving up 3 hits with 6K and 0 BB. Now the Phillies lineup isn’t the Nats, but I think Tylor is going to continue the early season dominance. His underlying metrics showcase a pitcher with the possibility to be elite. His numbers last year showcased a 3.92 xFIP and 9.94 K/9. Put that together with a 3.5K/BB ratio and an elite fastball and you have yourself an ace in the making. His numbers in AA last year were almost video game numbers. He will need to learn to keep the ball in the yard better to become that ace. His 18.8 HR/FB% last year surely will come down. He did not have a great showing in his one appearance vs Philly last year giving up 4 runs in 4.2
Zach Wheeler is already an ace and he dominated the Mets last year especially late in the season. He went 3-1 against New York and posted a 2.11 ERA over 5 starts. The concern here is he hasn’t thrown in a game yet this spring after dealing with shoulder soreness this winter and then an illness in camp. I’m not worried about the outing other than the fact that it will be short. Likely 60-70 pitches.
It’s early yet in the season, but I think both of these bullpens are solid (last night’s Mets showing excluded.) Edwin Diaz is still out on the bereavement list. The Phils will need to get some solid innings to back up Wheeler and should be able to do so.
The wind will be blowing in and across from left tonight. Unless Megill gets touched up early for some long balls by Harper and Schwarber I think this game stays under the number.
This is a Subscriber Play. Subscriber Plays are 31-11 last 42 Pick History
Subscribe to my Plays via the OddsBreakers Alan Cashman
MLB
Cubs at Pirates 4:12 pm
Smyly vs Quintana
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
A couple of hittable starters and 2 bullpens with ERA over 5 to start the season feels like a 5-4 game at the least
Smyly 5.40 ERA last 7 starts
Over 8.5 has hit in 7 of last 9 games Smyly has started
Over 8.5 has hit in 7 of last 10 starts by Quintana
Quintana 7.92 ERA last 7 starts
Right handed batters hit .344 last season vs Quintana
6 of last 7 meetings have finished Over 8.5
Cubs have scored 5 or more runs in their first 3 games of the season
Over is 7-1 last 8 meetings
Tuesday card has an Executive Level NBA TIER 1 Play in Total and an MLB 6* Blowout System headlining. Champions League Soccer play below.
The Champions league reverse fixture is on Bayern Munich at 3:00 eastern. The German champs were beat 1-0 in the first leg playing at Villareal. This time around they are at homer where they are known to crush teams. They need to make up the goal difference here and they have been solid going 20-4- and 6 draws at home against Spanish teams. Villareal will find it much tougher here today and we look for Munich to emerge with a multiple goal win. On Tuesday We have a huge Tier 1 total in NBA Play in action a 6* MLB Blowout System and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on faceboo/twitter to jump on. For the Champions League Soccer Play. Make it Munich -1.5 goals. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Well the Brewers really shit the bed, huh? No comment on the Mariners, let’s move on. Excited to get these NBA playoffs started!
NBA Picks:
Nets 1Q -3, 1 unit
Publicized “rumors” tell us that Jarrett Allen probably won’t play for Cleveland tonight, which is a big downgrade for the Cavs. This is a big line full game, one that we’ve seen Brooklyn blow plenty (Brooklyn was the 2nd worst ATS team in the NBA, covering at only 40%), so I can’t take the full line. The Nets should come out hot in this contest though, looking to get an early lead so they can sit comfortably ahead and play their type of basketball. At home at a raucous Barclays Center, the porous perimeter defense of Cleveland should get shook early and give Durant and Kyrie and Curry plenty of opportunities to score. Early advantage goes to Brooklyn and if they come out in rhythm, this could get ugly quick.
Nets/Cavs under 229.5, 1.5 units
We’ve talked at length about totals in the NBA playoffs and how they decrease. Not only do totals decrease, but so does tempo. The only chance CLE has to stay in this contest is to slow it down and play their brand of basketball. Their defense has sharpened over the last week or so, looking more like the unit we saw earlier in the season, and the Nets have certainly shown a new gear on defense, too. This line is right, it has to be higher because of Brooklyn’s potential on offense, but if the Cavs can slow this game down even a tiny bit, this will fall way below 230. If it starts off fast, look to live bet the under when it inflates. The action should slow down in the 4th QTR.
Clippers +3, 1 unit
I’m pulling the trigger on LAC. Long story short, I give LAC the advantage in a few very important categories: 3-point defense, overall defense, and playoff experience. The Timberwolves are a young, exciting team but in case you forgot, they didn’t make the postseason last year. These young bucks are as explosive and talented as it gets, but elite athleticism and potentiality doesn’t necessarily equate to wins in the playoffs. After all, you’re competing against the best teams in the association, many of which aren’t seeded properly because of injuries and other complications. The Clippers are a great example of that. If PG was in the lineup all 6 months, is this a play-in team? I don’t think so. The Clippers stayed afloat and outside the play-in spot for most of the season, even without their two enigmas in PG and Kawhi. Minnesota barely got there, even after consistently terrific showings from their stars all year. I have this at EVEN, so I have to take the points with the dog.
MLB Picks:
Red Sox win, 1.25 units to win 1
Is it still winter in Boston? Cuz this team has started their season ICE COLD. Sitting near or at the bottom of the MLB in pretty much every batting category that exists, the Red Sox need to find their bats and this looks like an ideal spot to do it. Boston slumped into Monday after a big game Sunday night, which is an angle we’ll watch out for, but today’s matchup should suit them well. I trust Rich Hill (3.86 ERA, 4.34 FIP last season), who’s beyond his prime but has remained consistent throughout his career, to put forth a solid effort against a beatable lineup. Whereas Tyler Alexander, who has solid numbers himself, could easily fall victim to the power of Boston’s lineup. I think the Red Sox step up in this contest and get a W.
Mets win, 1 unit to win 1.35 units (+135)
What’s not to like about what we saw from Tylor Megill in his opener? Five innings, a 0.00 ERA, and what looks like a stronger arm than ever (95.9 four seam fastball velocity). He’ll oppose Zach Wheeler, who had a sensational season in 2021, but I really like the confidence and efficiency we’re seeing from the Mets’ offense. This could be a 0-0 type game heading into the 6th inning, and I trust NYM’s bullpen much more than a Philly pen that’s overperformed thus far. Value on the Mets here.
Hard to look at the under in any Blue Jays game so it’s just a small play, but tonight park conditions won’t be ideal with a chilly wind coming in off right field. Ballparkpal.com has Yankee Stadium rated as the worst weather conditions tonight where all 5 games last year between these two went under 9 runs. Granted, two of those games were in the shorter doubleheader games. It could be argued that Blue Jays’ starter Manoah could be their best starter this year and Taillon looked like the Yankees’ most consistent last season. Both lineups bring a ton of firepower, but I do like the value with the first 5 innings going under. Weather conditions not ideal in this one and the division opener with two solid starters, I expect this one to be a little tighter in this young season. Yankees bullpen has a lot to offer so we’re seeing the total on the game juiced to the under, so I can’t blame anyone looking that way for the full game either. Also seeing a tickets/ money split with money on the under.
Check out more of my daily plays at Patreon, 21-10-3 in April so far!
We only have one game on the slate tonight in the NHL. The Winnipeg Jets travel to Montreal to take on the Canadiens. The Habs’ have been eliminated from the post season while the Jets need everything to go their way to try and grab a wild card spot.
Winnipeg Jets @ Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Winnipeg Jets: 34-28-11, 6th Central (15-13-8 Away)
Montreal Canadiens: 20-41-11, 8th Atlantic (10-20-4 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Winnipeg Jets
-162
-125
-1.5 (+200)
o6.5 (-125)
Montreal Canadiens
+134
+105
+1.5 (-240)
u6.5 (+105)
Trends:
Winnipeg are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg’s last 6 games on the road.
Montreal are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Montreal’s last 19 games
Previous Matchups:
March 1, 2022
MTL (4) @ WPG (8)
MTL +190, WPG -230, O/U 6.0 (-105/-115)
Preview:
Winnipeg snapped a four-game losing streak on Sunday defeating the Senators 4-3. On the year the Jets are 4-4 on no day’s rest but 1-3-1 after a win so the trends don’t look good for them.
The Canadiens are coming off a tough loss in Toronto losing 3-2 on Saturday. Jake Allen, who has been their starting goalie all season suffered and injury and didn’t return. Montreal has a tough schedule ahead as they play four games in the next six days.
The Jets haven’t been as dominant offensive as of late. On the year they rank 16th averaging 3.07 Goals For per game but in their last ten that number has dropped to 2.80. They’re generating less shots on goal and haven’t been capitalizing on the chances they do create. One area that has been better is their Power Play which has been converting at a higher rate than their season average. If the Jets do want to try and make a push in their last 10 or so games, this offense needs to wake up.
Just like their offense, Winnipeg’s defense has been worse lately. While the difference isn’t major, they have been worse giving up an average of 3.20 Goals Against in their most recent ten games. Their Penalty Kill has been atrocious during that stretch with a 64.29% success rate. On the year they’re almost 11% higher than that for reference.
Eric Comrie will start in net for the Jets tonight with Connor Hellebuyck getting the nod last night. His last start came against the Maple Leafs on March 31st where he allowed six goals against. That was the most goals he’s allowed this season in a single game, so we’ll see how he rebounds tonight. Overall, he has a 2.68 GAA and a .912 SV%.
The Canadiens offense has been much better averaging 3.10 Goals For in their last ten compared to their season average of 2.60, which ranks 27th. Oddly enough, they’ve ben averaging less Shots on Goal but have increased their Shooting Percentage by 3%. Their Power Play continues to struggle only converting on three of their last twenty-seven attempts (10.71%). They haven’t had a great man advantage all year, but this has been the worst stretch for them by far.
Their defense also hasn’t been great all season allowing an average of 3.79 Goals Against per game, ranking 31st. That number has jumped up to 3.90 in their last ten games. They have allowed a staggering 41.10 Shots Against per game during that ten-game stretch.
Sam Montembeault is expected to get the start in net tonight. He came in for Jake Allen who was hurt in their most recent game. He has faced Winnipeg once this year where he was awful, allowing seven goals against on 23 shots before getting pulled.
Pick:
Cole Caufield over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-150) – DraftKings
Caufield has gone over this number in four of his last five games. In their lone matchup against the Jets this season he recorded 3 Shots on Goal. Winnipeg is also averaging 35.90 Shots on Goal Against per game in their last 10 which is more than their season average. He’s been on an absolute tear in the past few games recording at last one point in his last four. All of this information can be found at linemate.io.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Coming off a 3-0, +3u day in the MLB, I now sit at 7-3-1, +4.58u on the season. I’m rolling with 3 more plays tonight looking to keep things rolling. If you’d like to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Phillies F5 -0.5(-120) vs Mets–5:45 PM CT
Phillies SP Ranger Suarez is coming off an incredible 2021 season that saw him post a 1.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 106 innings. The lefty gave up just 0.3 HR/9 innings despite pitching in one of the toughest ballparks in the league. The Mets ranked in the bottom 5 in OPS against lefties on the road last season, and in 4.2 innings against Suarez, New York pushed across just 1 run. Mets SP Taijuan Walker got off to a solid start last season but really crumbled as the season went along. On the road, he posted an ugly 5.82 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and gave up almost 2 HR/9. The Phillies now have one of the best lineups in baseball after adding Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to an already solid core, and 3 of the first 4 guys in the Phillies order have an OPS above 1.000 in their career matchups with Walker(Schwarber is 5/10 with 5 HR’s). I think the Phillies take a lead into the back half of this game.
*MLB(1u): Giants F5 -0.5(-110) vs Padres–8:45 PM CT
*MLB(0.5u): Giants -1.5(+140) vs Padres–8:45 PM CT
Giants SP Alex Wood was very consistent pitching at Oracle Park last season. While the 3.54 ERA might not jump out at you, Wood recorded a 1.04 WHIP and allowed just 0.8 HR/9 in his home ballpark. The Padres ranked just 19th in OPS against lefties on the road last season and are without their star in Fernando Tatis. Facing a soft-throwing lefty that limits the long ball, the Padres are unlikely to be able to take advantage of a strong wind that will be blowing upwards of 20 mph out to right field. On the other hand, the Giants have a predominantly left-handed lineup that will be licking their chops at tonight’s matchup. Nick Martinez will start for San Diego tonight, which will mark his first MLB appearance since 2017. Good for him and all, but he’s getting this opportunity only because Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are on the IL; it certainly isn’t because of his career numbers(4.77 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and and 2.1 HR/9). Regardless, this is a clear mismatch, and when you add on that the Giants are better built to take advantage of tonight’s hitting conditions, I think this could be a route. I’ll play Giants F5 -0.5 as the bigger play, but I also want some action on the -1.5 at the +140 price for 0.5u.
