Home Blog Page 343

NBA Free Picks from FarleyBets – April 5, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
-
Timberwolves' stars discussing strategy on the court. Photo Courtesy of USA Today

 

The wild and zany world of NBA betting only gets crazier in this final week of the regular season. Figuring out which teams are motivated and which aren’t isn’t as easy as it may seem, but we have a few value-bets we like today. Let’s attack!

2 Year NBA Record: Over 850 Picks, 57% win rate (+70 units this season)
Click here for my premiums every day in your inbox!

Cavs -8.5 (-110): The Cavaliers are one of the few teams where motivation shouldn’t be waning. Cleveland currently sits in the 7th spot, which means they would need to participate in the play-in tournament if the postseason started today. That’s something they would rather avoid altogether. A team that’s regressed on both offense and defense recently, the Cavs aren’t the same team without their two star bigs, Jarrett Allen and rookie Evan Mobley. Allen and Mobley should be back by the time the playoffs begin, but for now the Cavs need to knuckle-up and survive by maximizing their perimeter offense. Darius Garland and Caris LaVert now have plenty of reps without their bigs leading up to this contest, and Lauri Markkanen has become a trustworthy shooter for their backcourt. Last time these two teams faced, just 5 games ago, Cleveland only bested the Magic by 6 points. A big part of that was because of Wendall Carter Jr., Orlando’s burgeoning center, who had 15 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, and a +4 point differential at home. He won’t play in today’s game, and that’s a major positive for Cleveland. The Cavs should be able to control the pace of this game and limit Orlando’s young shooters (who are among the NBA’s worst this season) to ensure they snag a victory and cover this line. The Bulls are 2 games ahead of the Cavaliers but Chicago has 3 tough games remaining to finish the season. The Cavs returning to the #6 spot is far from impossible– bet Cleveland.

Timberwolves 1H over 64.5 (-115): It’s no mystery that the Minnesota Timberwolves are easily one of the most explosive and productive offenses this season. For the majority of 2022, they were rated as the NBA’s #1 offense. Over their last 3 games, they’ve scored 80, 70, and 60 points in the first half, and two of those contests were against very solid defenses (Toronto and Denver). Tonight they face one of the league’s worst defenses (Washington is 21st in paint points allowed, 27th in DEF EFF since the All-Star break, and they allow 112 ppg, good for 17th overall). And their front court resistance has arguably become even less capable- Kristaps Porzingis, although known for his sweet jump shot and perimeter ability, is nothing to fear on defense. The Timberwolves, led by Karl Anthony-Towns (KAT), are having a breakout year and much of that is how they attack the rim. When KAT isn’t dominating down low, they’re the #1 offense in both 3-pointers attempted and 3-pointers made per game. Minnesota should explode from tipoff and gain an early lead. Remember, they’re in the 7th spot in the West, so there’s still plenty to strive for (i.e. avoiding the play-in tournament). I’m on Minnesota.

Rob Vinciletti: Tuesday TENNIS Anyone?

By
Rob Vinciletti
-

Tuesday NBA Western Conference Game Of The Month with Undefeated system headlines Tuesday. Tennis Comp Play below.

The Comp play on Tuesday in Tennis is on Mackenzie McDonald +3 on the Games line over Nick Kyrgios at 4:00 eastern in the First Round of the U.S Clay Court Championships in Houston. McDonald won the only head to head meeting between the two 6-4 6-4 in last years Washington Open. He won 2 of his last 3 with the last match a Loss to a much Better Zverev in Miami. Kyrgios remains largely inconsistent and has not played on Clay since 2019 and that could negate his big serve. With the American crowd getting Loud for McDonald we will take the+3 game spread. Move on Mackenzie McDonald. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

MLB Season Preview Part 6/7 – AL WEST

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.

AL West

Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

Houston Astros -200/ 91.5

Los Angeles Angels +375/ 84.5

Seattle Mariners +450/ 84.5

Texas Rangers +1400/ 73.5

Oakland Athletics +1800/ 67.5

Seattle Mariners – The Mariners added a ton of pieces to a team that won 90 games in 2021. The biggest addition being 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray joining the rotation. He has had a few good years followed by regression in the past, but looking at the metrics that is behind him. He is a top 5 pitcher in the majors and will continue to be that. The team also has an up and coming ace in Logan Gilbert and proven if not flashy pieces in Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen giving them a solid top 4. The lineup is full of new additions in trade pieces Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez and Adam Frazier. It also has young home grown talent, which if they figure things out could make this the most dangerous lineup in all of baseball. Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are both top prospects. Kelenic got a taste last year and Julio was just announced as making the opening day roster. The bullpen will be a committee approach, but has four really good pieces in Paul Sewald, Drew Steckenrider, Ken Giles, and Diego Castillo. Prediction 88-74

Houston Astros – The cheating Astros even after all the scrutiny they received, managed to win their third AL pennant in five years. Their top to bottom lineup is probably still the best in the division as Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez took a step forward in 2021 and added a bunch of pop to what Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel brought to the table. The rotation gets Justin Verlander back and adds Jake Odorizzi in place of the departed Zack Greinke. The bullben is still solid with the two Ryan(Ryne’s) Pressley and Stanek at the back end. Not much changed other than Verlander coming back overall and the division competition is better at the top. I look for Houston to take a step back in 2022. Prediction 87-75

Los Angeles Angels – Shohei Ohtani the pitcher and the batter are the most exciting thing happening in baseball right now. The MVP hit 46 Home Runs, had a .965 OPS, stole 26 bags, oh and also went 9-2 with a 3.18 ERA and struck out 156 batters in 130 IP. The rest of the team last year was much less exciting. If Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon can somehow stay on the field for the whole season this team is primed to take a run at the division. The rotation added Noah Syndergaard who will look to get back to his former dominance, and the bullpen added Raisel Iglesias. All and all this team is much better than last year. The key will be if they can stay healthy. Prediction 86-76

Texas Rangers – The Rangers have made some lineup improvements getting Marcus Semien, Corey Seagar, Brad Miller, MItch Garver and Kole Calhoun this off-season. The problem is the rotation isn’t great. It is possible Jon Gray has a nice season now that he is out of Coors, but the 2-5 guys are below average. Joe Barlow leads a below average bullpen. They will have to outscore their opponents to win almost every night, but should be fun to watch. Prediction 70-92

Oakland Athletics – The A’s are in full rebuild, and Let’s move to Vegas mode. They traded away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chriss Bassitt, Sean Manaea. Frankie Montas won’t be far behind. But at least they resigned Jed Lowrie! They will not be good. End of story. Prediction 60-102

My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:

I don’t even know how I put the Mariners down for less wins than they had last year, but it’s where I landed. No one in baseball did more to improve themselves this off-season and I wouldn’t be shocked if they rip off 95 to 100 wins. It all depends on how those young bats get up to speed. I also don’t understand how the Astros have about the same odds to win the division as the White Sox. It makes no sense. There is value here in fading the Astros. Lots of action for me on the AL West

Seattle Mariners to win division + 450 1.5 Units

Los Angeles Angels to win division +375 1.5 Units

Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs +155 2 Units

Seattle Mariners over 84.5 wins – 2 units

Oakland A’s under 67.5 wins – 1.5 Units (I got this last week before Manaea trade at 70.5)

 

Updated Premiums, 4.5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up team! Please see some updates below.

NBA, April 5:
  • Sixers 1Q -4, 1.5 units
    • This line isn’t out yet but when it is, hit it! Look at any recent Pacers game and they all show the same routine – the Pacers get blown out in the 1st quarter, they’re feisty in the 2nd quarter, and they’re harder to predict in a full game line. Let’s take the Sixers in the 1Q, who still have plenty to play for as they chase the #1 seed, to blow Indiana out of the water.
  • Cavs -8.5, 1.5 units
    • You know what team should have NO issue with motivation? The Cavaliers. Currently they sit in the 7th spot but the Bulls are spiraling and spiraling fast – there’s a decent chance that Chicago falls into that 7th seed by the time the playoffs start. Cleveland’s remaining schedule is really tough, but if they got a shot at the 6th seed, they NEED to win this contest. Wendall Carter Jr. may be out of this game, too, and he’s really the only player who should give the Cavs substantial issues here. Apparently there’s also a shot that Allen and Mobley return as well. All CLE for me. I wouldn’t take this beyond -8.5.
  • Nets 1H -9.5 or less, 1.5 units This is canceled since it opened -10.
    • Here we go with these first half lines but this one makes too much sense. I’m not sure if it’s a guarantee that Brooklyn wants to win every remaining game; it’s certainly not essential since they’re locked into the play-in tournament. I’m betting that Brooklyn is motivated in the first half, though, since lately they don’t have much to celebrate and they’re showing a worrisome lack of defensive prowess and all-around chemistry. The Rockets are the perfect team to take advantage of in a fast-paced, high-output contest. No bet here if it’s 10 or more.
  • Bucks -4, 2 units
    • Speaking of Chicago spiraling, this is a very bad spot for the Bulls, mostly because of the kind of Bucks team I expect to see. As long as all of Milwaukee’s stars play, and right now it looks like they will, the Bucks should be ultra motivated after their loss to the Mavericks. Momentum is a thing before the playoffs, and stumbling into it isn’t what any team wants. Milwaukee still has a shot at the #1 seed, and the Bulls could be without Caruso here, too. I’ll confidently take the Bucks. No bet here if it’s 5.5 or more.
  • Blazers/Thunder over 223, 2 units
    • These two squads scored 235 points before they reached OT a few days ago and games between bad teams with nothing to play for are going over routinely. Sort of a blind bet, but the reasoning is solid – why would ANYONE want to play defense here? Exactly.
  • NEW: Timberwolves 1H -7 and 1H TT over 64.5 points, both 1 unit each
    • Minnesota has NO reason to not go balls to the wall from the start of this contest, and they’re going up against one of the worst defenses in the NBA right now. Washington’s porous front court defense should allow plenty of points and margin by the end of the first half.
  • Spurs +6, 1 unit
    • This is +6.5 at some places but we’ll keep it at 6 so we can all get it. The Spurs have a lot to play for, i.e. survival, and I’m not sure if Denver will be equally motivated here. This is only a 1 unit play since my power ratings have this exactly where the line is, but the added narrative for San Antonio has me pulling the trigger. The Spurs’ remaining schedule is brutal, so this is probably one they circled as a possible win. No bet here if it drops under 6 for you.
  • 4-Leg Parlay: 1.5 units to win 2.45 units
    • Cavs + Sixers + T-Wolves + Bucks moneylines
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Expected Bets For – Episode 11 – April 5th, 2022 NHL Breakdown

By
Patrick Gates
-
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For we have Matt, aka @TopCheddarPicks and @gretzkybetzkys on Twitter to help breakdown Wednesday April 5th’s NHL slate. Matt will now be the weekly co-host of the podcast so I’m incredibly thankful to have his insight on the NHL market every week.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically what to look at when interpreting NHL player props.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
  • NHL News/ Notes
    • Hot/ Cold Teams
    • Injury News
  • Playoff Predictions
  • Post Season Awards featuring John Tortorella’s favorite player
  • Betting Strategies
  • Player Props
  • Recent NHL Trends

You can follow Matt on Twitter @TopCheddarPicks and @gretzkybetzkys.

Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

OKC/POR Total

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

The POR/OKC total just came out and it’s WAY lower than expected. That’s not a 2 unit bet. Officially:

  • OKC/POR over 224.5, 2 units

NHL Preview & Picks – April 4th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
-

There’s only four games happening in the NHL on Monday night but there are some great matchups. The Toronto Maple Leafs will head to Tampa to take on the Lightning in a battle for second place in the Atlantic division. Then at 10:30 pm, the Flames will look to increase their lead in the Pacific division against the Kings who sit in second. It should be a great night for hockey which will unfortunately take a back seat to the final of March Madness.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 44-19-5, 2nd Atlantic (19-12-3Away)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning: 43-18-7, 3rd Atlantic (21-6-5 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Toronto Maple Leafs +123 +110 +1.5 (-220) o6.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Lightning -148 -130 -1.5 (+180) u6.5 (-115)

 

Trends:

  • Toronto are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games on the road.
  • Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay’s last 12 games.

 

Previous Matchups:

  • December 9, 2021
    • TBL (5) @ TOR (3)
    • TBL +110, TOR -130, O/U 5.5 (+100/-120)
  • November 4, 2021
    • TBL (1) @ TOR (2) – OT
    • TBL +115, TOR -135, O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)

 

Preview:

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs are 7-3 in their last 10 and currently on a four game winning streak. During that four game stretch, they’ve defeated Florida, Boston, Winnipeg and Philadelphia and averaged six goals for per game. Their offense has really found their stride as of late led by none other than Austin Matthews who recently became the fourth player in Leafs history to score 50 goals in a season.

In Toronto’s last ten they’re averaging 4.10 Goals For per game which is an uptick from their season average of 3.76. They rank 2nd in the NHL in terms of Goals For so with the additional uptick in offense production, it makes them very dangerous as only certain teams can match their offensive fire power. The increase in goals hasn’t necessarily been because of their increase in scoring chances but, more so in their ability to capitalize on chances as their Shooting % has increased 2%. Toronto’s Power Play has also been great as of late scoring at a 9% higher rate in their last 10 games.

The Maple Leafs haven’t been great defensively this year as they rank 17th in Goals Against with an average of 3.03. In their past 10 games, they’ve been right around that mark allowing an average of 3.10. Their shots against has also remained in line with their season average so nothing really out of the ordinary for them defensively.

Jack Campbell has been confirmed as the starter for the Leafs tonight. He’ll make his second start since returning from an injury. In his last start he allowed 3 goals on 32 shot attempts finishing with a -0.71 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). At the beginning of the year, Campbell was one of the best goalies in the NHL in terms of GSAx, now he ranks 66th with a -2.5 through 41 games. The Leafs desperately need him to return to form if they want to have a shot at making a deep playoff run.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning have also been playing some great hockey as of late going 6-3-1 in their last 10. They’re coming off a 5-4 shootout loss to the Canadiens at home where Brian Elliot struggled finishing with a -1.36 GSAx. Prior to that game, they had won four straight defeating the Red Wings, Islanders, Hurricanes, and Blackhawks.

Unlike the Maple Leafs, the Lightning have struggled offensively averaging 3.00 Goals For in their last 10 which below their season average. Tampa Bay has actually generated more Shots on Goal in those 10 games but their Shooting % has dropped. One encouraging sign for the Lightning has been their Power Play which has converted at 34.38% compared to their season average of 22.2%. Part of the reason Tampa won back to back Stanley Cup’s was their ability on the man advantage so if they can keep this up, they have a shot at winning their third in a row.

With their offense struggling, their defense has certainly stepped it up. In their last 10 games the Lightning are averaging 2.10 Goals Against. On the year they average 2.75 Goals Against per game which ranks 8th. If their offense does start to take advantage of those additional scoring chances they’re generating, I’m not sure how anyone beats this team. Just like their Power Play, Tampa Bay’s Penalty Kill has been better as of late.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to start for the Tampa Bay Lightning today. In his last three starts, he’s averaged two goals against. On the year, he ranks 3rd in terms of GSAx with a +26.1.

Pick:

  • TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING ml (-128) – CIRCA
    • The first thing that jumps out to me is the moneyline. In their previous two matchups this season the Maple Leafs were favored. Obviously home ice play a major part in this but just something to be aware of. The total was also set at 5.5 in their previous two matchups and in tonight’s matchup, it’s set at 6.5.
    • The Lighting are a much better team at home so it makes sense why their favored. Toronto also hasn’t been as dominant on the road, so again the moneyline checks out.
    • I’m going with Tampa Bay at home here, they should be able to slow down this dangerous Toronto offense and given the goaltender matchup, I trust Vasilevskiy.

 

Other Picks on the Night:

  • VLADIMIR TARASENKO OVER 2.5 SOG (-152) – BARSTOOL
    • In the two matchups this season, Tarasenko is averaging 5 Shots on Goals against Arizona. The Coyotes are giving up almost 40 Shots on Goal against in their last 10 games. He’s actually gone under this number in his last two games but given his history against Arizona, I think he has a great shot of hitting this number. He’s also been better at home this season averaging 3.2 SOG per game. All of this information can be found at linemate.io.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

MLB Season Preview Part 5/7 – AL CENTRAL

By
Shawn Knoche
-

Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/

I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.

AL Central

Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals

Chicago White Sox -195/ 91.5

Minnesota Twins +400/ 81.5

Detroit Tigers +700/ 77.5

Cleveland Guardians +1000/ 76.5

Kansas City Royals +1200/ 73.5

Chicago White Sox – The South side rebuild is finally complete. The minor league pieces acquired through trades 5 years ago have all made their way into the majors and the White Sox dominated the weak AL central as the only team over .500 in 2021. The top 7 in this order are all potential all-stars. Luis Robert has also yet to realize his full potential and could be a potential MVP candidate if he does. Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez have either yet to put it all together because of plate discipline or injuries, and if they do look out. The 1-2 punch of Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease in the rotation makes the White Sox the team to beat once again. They did lose the reinvented Carlos Rodon in free agency, but replaced him with Lance Lynn. Lynn will start year on IL with knee surgery coming up. The real wild card in whether or not this team simply wins the Central or makes more noise in the playoffs is Michael Kopech. This kid in unreal. He throws triple digits and makes it look easy. If he becomes and stays as a full time member of the rotation it will be bad news for the rest of the American League. Oh and they have one of the top two closers in baseball in Liam Hendriks.- Prediction 94-68

Minnesota Twins – The Twins had a somewhat puzzling off season as they moved out some big bats in Josh Donaldson and Mitch Garver and brought in Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. The offense will go if the oft-injured Byron Buxton stays on the field to set the table. Jorge Polanco and Correa will also have to keep up production for them to stay in the central race. Other homegrown talent Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff will need to improve upon 2021 in order to actually win the division. In the rotation Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are joined by a trio of veterans to see if they can recapture some past magic. Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer all have past successes, but with the exception of Gray, all have disappointed in recent seasons. The bullpen has Taylor Rogers and a bunch of guys with ERAs over 4.5.  Don’t look for them to hold late leads until the 9th. They could also be moving a bunch of veterans at the deadline if things go sideways early. Prediction 79-83

Kansas City Royals – The Royals won 74 games in 2021 behind the bat of catcher Salvador Perez who tied for the league lead by hitting 48 Home Runs. They still have table setter Whit Merrifield atop the lineup. Adalberto Mondesi could steal 60 bases if he stays healthy although he can’t stop striking out when he is in the lineup. The exciting rookie Bobby Witt Jr. looks to slot in near the top of this lineup and is the future of the franchise and the first of a few solid prospects that will be up over the course if the next two years. The rotation lost 3 starters and got 3 starters back headlined by Zack Greinke coming home. The dude has always been a bit of a head case, but he thrived in KC with a lack of exposure and pressure and could do so again. I actually have every pitcher on their roster with the exception of closer Scott Barlow to hold an ERA between 4.00-5.00. That won’t win you a lot of games where you only score 2 runs, but this team has enough offensive talent to remain competitive and I don’t see them moving much at the deadline if they are lingering around .500. Prediction 78-84

Detroit Tigers – The Tigers youth movement started to show up last year with the arrival of pitchers Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize. Neither of them were lights out, but both have solid pedigrees. They will be joined to start the season by former top overall pick Spencer Torkleson, and at some point the now injured Riley Greene. Underrated 3B Jeimer Candelario will bat in the middle of the lineup along side Free agent pickup Javier Baez. The rotation also grabbed Eduardo Rodriguez from free agency. Outside of a reinvented Michael Fulmer, and closer Gregory Soto, the bullpen is a hot mess. This team will continue to improve as the youngsters gain experience, but it is still a little away from competing in this division. Prediction 75-87

Cleveland Guardians – The oft- injured Guardians were two games under .500 in 2021. They have not made a lot of moves from that team however and the rest of the division seems to have gotten better around them. The lineup has some excitement at the top with elite base stealer Myles Straw. The middle of the order is also solid with Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes and Bobby Bradley. In the rotation they have an ace in Shane Bieber, but health is a concern for him. Cal Quantrill, Zach Pleasac and Aaron Civale will come next, but not one of them strikes out a lot of batters. The back end of the bullpen has Emmanuel Clase and Nick Sandlin, but that is the only above average arms down there. Prediction 72-90

My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:

I don’t see a second team getting to the playoffs here. There are three teams in the West and four teams in the east I have as better teams than the Twins. The White Sox should own the division. I’m intrigued by the Royals and Tigers, but not enough to do more than a small bet here on the Royals total. I think the Twins could be sellers, but I can’t take their under just in case they are close in the race.

Chicago White Sox to win division -195 – To Win 2 Units

Chicago White Sox over 91.5 Wins  –  1 Unit

Kansas City Royals over 73.5Wwins – 1 .5 Units

 

 

 

Rob Vinciletti: Monday Pick and Preview in Early Soccer Action

By
Rob Vinciletti
-
National Championship Monday with North Carolina taking on Kansas. We have a Powerful System play in this matchup along with a Late NHL Play. Early Swedish Soccer Opening Day play below.
The Sweden Allvenskan power play is on Djurgarden at 1:10 eastern. Djurgarden had an impressive Allsvenskan season the past year. They took 3rd place and finished 2 points behind table leader Malmo. Degerfors barely escaped relegation the past season. In the head to head series Djurgarden has won 7 of their total 8 against Degerfors at home. Five of those game were non competitive. Degerfors went winless in 10 of the past 15 road fixtures and has a weak lineup on both offense and defense. Look for an opening day win for Djurgarden. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Premiums, April 5

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

What’s up all! I waited a certain amount of time to see if some of these things could change and to assess injuries, but at a certain point we have to trust the value of an early line. Here’s our full premiums for tomorrow – will let you know if there’s any additions or changes.

NBA, April 5:
  • Sixers 1Q -4.5 or less, 1.5 units
    • This line isn’t out yet but when it is, hit it! Look at any recent Pacers game and they all show the same routine – the Pacers get blown out in the 1st quarter, they’re feisty in the 2nd quarter, and they’re harder to predict in a full game line. Let’s take the Sixers in the 1Q, who still have plenty to play for as they chase the #1 seed, to blow Indiana out of the water.
  • Cavs -8.5, 1.5 units
    • You know what team should have NO issue with motivation? The Cavaliers. Currently they sit in the 7th spot but the Bulls are spiraling and spiraling fast – there’s a decent chance that Chicago falls into that 7th seed by the time the playoffs start. Cleveland’s remaining schedule is really tough, but if they got a shot at the 6th seed, they NEED to win this contest. Wendall Carter Jr. may be out of this game, too, and he’s really the only player who should give the Cavs substantial issues here. Apparently there’s also a shot that Allen and Mobley return as well. All CLE for me. I wouldn’t take this beyond -8.5.
  • Nets 1H -9.5 or less, 1.5 units
    • Here we go with these first half lines but this one makes too much sense. I’m not sure if it’s a guarantee that Brooklyn wants to win every remaining game; it’s certainly not essential since they’re locked into the play-in tournament. I’m betting that Brooklyn is motivated in the first half, though, since lately they don’t have much to celebrate and they’re showing a worrisome lack of defensive prowess and all-around chemistry. The Rockets are the perfect team to take advantage of in a fast-paced, high-output contest. No bet here if it’s 10 or more.
  • Bucks -4, 2 units
    • Speaking of Chicago spiraling, this is a very bad spot for the Bulls, mostly because of the kind of Bucks team I expect to see. As long as all of Milwaukee’s stars play, and right now it looks like they will, the Bucks should be ultra motivated after their loss to the Mavericks. Momentum is a thing before the playoffs, and stumbling into it isn’t what any team wants. Milwaukee still has a shot at the #1 seed, and the Bulls could be without Caruso here, too. I’ll confidently take the Bucks. No bet here if it’s 5.5 or more.
  • Blazers/Thunder over 237 or less, 1 unit
    • These two squads scored 235 points before they reached OT a few days ago and games between bad teams with nothing to play for are going over routinely. Sort of a blind bet, but the reasoning is solid – why would ANYONE want to play defense here? Exactly.
  • Spurs +6, 1 unit
    • This is +6.5 at some places but we’ll keep it at 6 so we can all get it. The Spurs have a lot to play for, i.e. survival, and I’m not sure if Denver will be equally motivated here. This is only a 1 unit play since my power ratings have this exactly where the line is, but the added narrative for San Antonio has me pulling the trigger. The Spurs’ remaining schedule is brutal, so this is probably one they circled as a possible win. No bet here if it drops under 6 for you.
  • 5-Leg Parlay: 1.5 units to win 2.45 units
    • Cavs + Sixers + T-Wolves + Bucks moneylines
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 
1...342343344...665Page 343 of 665