I can’t WAIT for this Saturday’s card– might be one of the best all year. Here are my picks for the big PPV event:
Mike Malott (-195), 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Gall has been on a downward trend and Mallott is a hungry, girthy fighter who should have the takedown advantage. Malott pushes Gall around for the win.
Aspen Ladd (+160), 1 unit to win 1.6 units
Grappling advantage to Ladd and she NEEDS this win
J. Rozenstruik/M. Tybura under 1.5 rounds (+115), 1 unit to win 1.15 units
Two big swingers with a ton of power
Madsen/Pichel goes the distance (-170), 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Two evenly matched fighters ascending in their class– this should be a highly technical battle with both fighters approaching cautiously
Petr Yan by KO, TKO, or DQ (+150), 2 units to win 3 units
Yan will be out for blood in this contest. He was DOMINANT in the last fight against Sterling– unhittable, a gas tank that doesn’t empty, and he was smashing Sterling at will. Unless Sterling makes a huge leap in his game, Yan should dominate and win in convincing fashion again before the final bell.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
After a 4 day break, I’m recharged and ready to roll for Opening Day! I’m kicking it off with 2 plays here on Thursday, each of which are plus-money. If you’d like to receive a text when I release any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Cardinals -1.5(+110) vs Pirates–3:15 PM CT
Adam Wainwright will take the hill for St. Louis today, and while I know he’s now 40, he has a phenomenal track record pitching at Busch Stadium. Last season, he recorded a 2.74 ERA and 1.01 WHIP at home in 128.1 IP, all while allowing less than 1 HR/9. Against the Pirates last year, he allowed just 1 run(!!) across 4 starts and averaged 7.5 IP per start. Aside from adding Daniel Vogelbach, the Pirates lineup didn’t get better this offseason; when you pair Wainwright’s experience with the fact he has a great track record in this spot, I like him to have a vintage start today. Pirates SP JT Brubaker allowed 2.5 HR/9 away from home last season and recorded an unimpressive 5.15 FIP. Dylan Carlson, Nolan Arenado, Paul DeJong, and Yadier Molina all have an OPS above 1.000 in their past appearances against Brubaker. The Cardinals were somewhat of a disappointment last year, but I think their lineup is going to ramp it up in this 2022 campaign. The Cardinals bullpen needs to show improvement this year, but I don’t have a hard time trusting them in this matchup given Pittsburgh will almost assuredly finish in the bottom third of the league in bullpen ERA and WHIP. I think the Cardinals take care of business today, and I love that we’re getting this at a plus price.
*MLB(1u): Astros ML(+108) @ Angels–8:38 PM CT
I know that sentiment on the Angels is higher than usual after they finally adding some pitching this offseason, but I’m taking the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach. While Shoehei Ohtani is a tough matchup for any opposing lineup, the Astros have actually handled him well in the past. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez all have an OPS at or above 1.000 against Ohtani, and that doesn’t even include the fact that Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Yuli Gurriel are tough outs for any pitcher. We also saw Ohtani struggle with control at the beginning of last season, walking 19 batters in his first 4 starts. The pressure is squarely on Ohtani in this spot, and while he’ll be able to mow down a lot of lineups this season, I don’t believe that to be true against a lineup built like Houston’s. Astros SP Framber Valdez is coming off a really good 2021 campaign, and he actually pitched much better on the road than at home last season(2.88 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9). Mike Trout and Ohtani are a combined 2-for-22 against Valdez, and while Anthony Rendon presents a tough matchup, I think Valdez can take care of the rest of this Angels lineup. While the Angels should be improved in their bullpen, I’m going to need to see results before changing my opinion on a unit that was one of the worst in baseball last season. I’m very inclined to trust a team built like Houston as underdogs here on Opening Day; I think this is one of the few lineups in baseball that can go toe-to-toe with an ace like Ohtani.
We have a massive show for you today! We finally are fortunate enough to have Adam Burke @Skatingtripods from VSIN back on to discuss the 2022 MLB season and of course we can’t forget the 2022 Masters with a RED HOT Patrick Gates @Gatorbetting! First, Kiev gets into a quick basketball recap and the big fights for UFC 273 with some plays and some leans! Next, Patrick comes on to discuss the Masters golf tournament! How does the course lay out? Who are the favorites? Who are we betting and why? Then, Adam comes on to discuss a huge MLB 2022 season with great info, rule changes, and great advice for new baseball bettors. We get into some of the changes coming into the season as well as covering each division to find some great season win totals and future plays. Should you have any questions, please tweet us @TheOddsBreakers.
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What’s up team! Finally we get a night we expect, going 4-1 last night in NBA picks. Don’t like today’s NBA slate as much as yesterday’s, so expect less plays.
And that’s okay because, BASEBALL is back! Like I said last night on Twitter, I went 54% (231-199) in MLB last season – not as good as my NFL or NBA marks, but still really good. This is more evidence that we’re quite spoiled on the FarleyBets team – most people would proudly scream and promote their 54% mark. Not me, but I probably should.
Anywho, some of you asked about the Masters. I wish I covered the Masters but I’m not quite there yet (nor do I have the time, honestly) to handicap golf. Here are some accounts I would follow, if you want solid info:
Alright, onto the picks! As you’ll notice, I pretty much dismissed every one of my leans from last night. Oops.
NBA Picks:
Lean, Raptors: I just love what they’re doing right now.
Timberwolves TT over 124, 1.5 units
Last time Minnesota faced San Antonio, they dropped 149 points on the Spurs. And last time the Timberwolves competed, they had a strange, low-output performance against the Wizards. Minnesota still has a shot at the 6th seed if the Nuggets lose their last two (they own the tiebreaker), and that would be a much more advantageous position for them (i.e. avoiding LAC). I expect this to be the last explosive game we see from the Minnesota offense this regular season.
Pelicans 1H over 60 or less, 1.5 units
At home, the Pelicans cover at a rate of 69.2% and they’re a top 7 offense since the All Star break. They had their way with Portland in their last contest but not like they probably thought they would. Today we think they will, big time, as they look to continue gaining momentum heading into the postseason. I also like that Valanciunas might be out – he can slow down their offense at times.
Grizzlies/Nuggets over 232.5, 1 unit
The most recent iteration of this matchup should be far more indicative of what we see today. In that game, back in January, these two squads combined for 240 points. Today the Nuggets should be fiercely competitive and more efficient on offense, since they hope to lock in the #6 seed. The Grizzlies always try hard and always explode to the rim. Points!
MLB Picks:
Brewers/Cubs under 10, 1 unit
It won’t be a pleasant day at Wrigley and although Hendricks certainly isn’t known for his consistency, he has fresh arms and the Cubs don’t want to start the season with another subpar defensive effort (they were one of the worst defenses in MLB last year, 26th in opponent run differential). Cy Young Winner Corbin Burnes will do his part to keep this under, too.
Padres -1.5, 1 unit
The Diamondbacks have done next to nothing to improve their squad. I don’t trust Bumgarner and although Darvish hasn’t been consistent on the road, the Padres still own the way better outfit, even with Tatis Jr. on the sidelines. All Padres for this guy.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
discusses last years results and trends, breaks down every division with win totals, gives out his futures and World Series winners and 2 Free Picks for Opening Day!
Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
I’ve Got 8 Units worth of predictions below.
MLB Post-Season Predictions
If you’ve been following along out divisional previews you already have a fairly good idea of how I see things shaking out. Playoffs have 12 teams this year. The top 2 divisional winners get a bye. The other divisional winner is the #3 seed, and then the next three best records in the league are the #4, #5, and #6 seeds. There are no tie-breaker games this year. The playoffs also do not get re-seeded after each round
National League Seeds – #1 Los Angeles Dodgers, #2 Milwaukee Brewers, #3 New York Mets, #4 San Diego Padres, #5 Atlanta Braves, # 6 San Francisco Giants (They win the tie-breaker with the Phillies for the 6 seed)
American League Seeds – #1 Toronto Blue Jays, #2 Chicago White Sox, #3 Seattle Mariners, #4 New York Yankees, #5 Boston Red Sox, #6 Houston Astros
Wild Card Matchups
Mets vs Giants – I’m gonna assume Degrom and Scherzer are both still upright somehow come playoffs and give the Mets this one. Mets win series 2-0
Padres vs Braves – We haven’t had a repeat world series champ since the Yankees 3 peat in 2000. No reason it starts this year. Padres win series 2-1
Mariners vs Astros – The feel good story from last year wins the division, but loses early to a much more experienced playoff team. Astros win series 2-0
Yankees vs Red Sox – The series MLB wants, finds a way to happen in the wild card. I’m sticking with recent post-season trends in this matchup. Red Sox win series 2-1
Divisional Series
Dodgers vs Padres – The Padres built this team to compete with LA. My guess is they will be healthier in the rotation by the end of the year, and get the upset here. Padres Win series 3-1
Brewers vs Mets – Scherzer and DeGrom vs Burnes and Woodruff. The youth movement has arrived. Brewers win series 3-1
Blue Jays vs Red Sox – Too much Toronto lineup in this one for the Red Sox average rotation to overcome. Blue Jays Win series 3-1
White Sox vs Astros – 2005 World Series rematch. Justin Verlander gives the Astros a chance throwing two amazing starts, but that’s all the pitching the Astros can muster. They fall in a thrilling game 5 extra inning affair. White Sox win series 3-2
Championship Series
Brewers vs Padres – Battle of two of the coolest ball parks in the country. The Brewers got here through pitching and defense. They hold the Friars to 14 runs in the series and get by in 7. Brewers win series 4-3
Blue Jays vs White Sox – There’s more experience in the Blue Jays rotation, but when it comes to pure talent I give the nod here to Kopech, Giolito and Cease. They find a way to quiet the Blue Jays bats and take this series. White Sox in series 4-2
World Series
Brewers vs White Sox – The Battle of I-94. Great pitching leads the way and cold October nights in Chicago turn this into one of the lowest scoring World Series in history. I think Milwaukee gets by in 7. Brewers win series 4-3
Post-Season Plays
White Sox to Win World Series +1000 .5 Units
Brewers to Win World Series +1200 .5 Units
White Sox to win AL Pennant +600 .5 Units
Brewers to win NL Pennant +650 .75 Units
Mariners to Win AL Pennant +1400 .25 Units
Padres to Win NL Pennant +850 .25 Units
Other MLB Season Futures I See Value In
AL MVP – Nothing for me here. If Shohei is healthy he’s it. If not It’s Vlad. No Value
NL MVP Freddie Freeman +1000 .25 Units
AL Cy Young Kevin Gausman +1800 .25 Units
NL CY Young – I’d love to bet Freddy Peralta here at +6500 or so but cant find it. Take Burnes at +800 .25 Units
AL ROY – Joe Ryan +2000 .25 Units
NL ROY – Oneill Cruz- +325 .5 Units. – Short Line, but I don’t see others competing unless they keep him down longer than expected.
Most HR – Franmil Reyes +1800 .25 Units
Most Runs Scored – George Springer +1800 .25 Units
Kevin Gausman Over 11.5 Wins 1 Unit. – Berrios is at 13.5?????
Chris Bassitt Over 10.5 Wins .5 Units
Josh Donaldson under 29.5 HRs – .5 Units – He’s not getting through whole season healthy
Ramon Laureano Under 20.5 HRs .5 Units – He’s Peaked at 24HR and is missing first 27 games, plus has no lineup protection.
Tim Anderson over 165.5 Hits- 1.25 Units – He had 163 last year and played in 123 games.
Hello Friends, and welcome to the best week of the year, the Masters. Before we have even teed off, the storylines have already started. Like everyone who follows golf, we’ve been on Tiger watch for the past week or so. Given all of the information, and it looks like he’s a go this week.
Bryson continues his chaos tour and is fresh off a Dude Perfect video that set golf twitter a blaze. He looks to also be competing this week after stating in an interview he “can’t go all out” and was only around 80% healthy. Since returning from an injury he hasn’t looked great. He’s coming off a terrible performance at the Valero Texas Open where he missed the cut.
In the past nine weeks were up +28.28 Units. So while I’m fighting every urge in my body to over expose myself this week in terms of units, it will be a fairly normal card. Instead of the usual 3-4 units I risk every week, it will be around 5 this week given it’s a major tournament.
I breakdown the first major of the year and offer some picks for who I think will put on the green jacket. Let’s get started.
Tournament Information:
Dates: April 7th, 2022- April 10th, 2022
Location: Augusta, Georgia, United States
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Course Type: Georgia/ Southeast
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,510 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 91 Players | Top 50 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways: Ryegrass
Rough: Ryegrass 1.38″
Stimpmeter: 14.0 ft. (Very Fast)
Purse: $11,500,000 / Winner $2,070,000
FedEx Cup Points: 600
Bunkers: 44
Water Hazards: – (In-Play on 5 Holes)
Average Green Size: 6,486 sq. ft.
Scoring Average:
2021: 73.06 (+1.06), Rank 7 of 51
2020: 71.75 (-0.25), Rank 13 of 42
2019: 71.87 (-0.13), Rank 16 of 49
Course Architect/ Comparable Courses:
Course Architect: Dr Alister MacKenzie & Bobby Jones (1933)
The Masters Tournament, also known as the Masters, is the first of four major championships in professional golf. The event was founded in 1934, 88 years ago. Not only is it an official money event for the PGA Tour but, also for the DP Tour (Euro Tour) and Japan Golf Tour.
Starting in 1949, the tradition of the green jacket was born. Along with the prize money and prestige, every champion becomes an honorary member of Augusta. The green jacket is only allowed to be removed from the Augusta National grounds by the reigning champion.
In addition to the green jacket, there are several awards presented to players who perform exceptional feats during the tournament. The player who has the daily lowest score receives a crystal vase, while players who score a hole-in-one or a double eagle win a large crystal bowl. For each eagle a player makes, they receive a pair of crystal goblets.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Augusta National is one of the most consistent courses on the PGA Tour but, there are two changes this year. Holes No. 11 and No. 15 have been slightly modified adding some additional difficulty. Both tee boxes have been pushed back along with the recontouring of the fairways on those holes. While this isn’t a major change to the course layout, it does make players club up on both holes, making those approach shots more difficult.
As it stands with the recent modifications Augusta National measures just over 7,500 yards. Distance off the tee is crucial this week especially with the Par 4’s. 90% of the Par 4’s measure 440 yards or longer this week. As we place an emphasis on distance, we can neglect accuracy off the tee a bit, as Augusta has some of the widest fairways on Tour.
The greens are extremely difficult given the complexity and speed. On the stimpmeter they measure 14.0 which ranks near the fastest greens players will face on Tour. This is where course history plays a major factor.
Scorecard Source: John Haslbauer
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Driving Distance
Par 4 Birdie or Better
Course History
The Field/ Odds:
Jon Rahm headlines the field at 11-1 on most books but, you can find him as high as 14-1 on FanDuel and as low as 9-1 on DraftKings. He’s been an absolute Top 10 Machine at Augusta finishing inside that number in all four of his most recent appearances. He has yet to win an event on the Tour this season and recently lost his World No 1 Ranking to Scottie Scheffler.
Behind Rahm is Justin Thomas who’s currently listed anywhere from 12-1 to 14-1. JT is another guy who has yet to win an event on the PGA Tour this year. He’s finished 3rd twice and will be looking to capture his first green jacket in front of his mentor, Tiger. JT’s best finish at the Masters came back in 2020 where he finished 4th.
Next up is Cameron Smith, who has won two events on the PGA Tour this season. Earlier this year he won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and not so long ago he won THE PLAYERS Championship. He’s been on an absolute tear this season and is currently listed at 16-1 on most books. In his five appearances at the Masters, he has finished inside the Top 10 in three of them. In his past two starts at Augusta, he finished 2nd in 2020 and 10th in 2021.
Speaking of hot players, Scottie Scheffler has won three of his last five starts after going winless in his first 72 starts. So far this year he has won the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Scheffler has only played in the Masters twice finishing 19th in 2020 and 26th in 2021. As it stands he’s listed at 16-1 on most major books. If you’re looking to back him this week I would check out FanDuel who has him at 17-1.
Dustin Johnson is next up on the board and currently listed around 16/17-1. DJ is another guy who hasn’t won an event this year. However, he his coming off his best finish of the year at the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play. Dustin did win the Master’s in 2020 so the course history is there. Despite the win two years ago, he missed the cut in 2021 at Augusta.
Other players who are listed at 20-1 or below include Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Jordan Spieth, and Collin Morikawa. Out of those players, Spieth is the only one to have won a green jacket before. Brooks was close finishing 2nd in 2019 but as we all know, Tiger captured the title that year. Hovland and Morikawa have both only played at Augusta twice. Hovland’s first appearance here was back in 2019 when he was the top amateur in the event finishing 32nd.
Also, it wouldn’t be a Master’s article if I didn’t mention Tiger who’s looking to capture his sixth Masters. He’s currently listed at 50-1.
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
I’m pretty sure everyone is on Justin Thomas this week. He’s probably the most tipped guy this week besides maybe Brooks. JT hasn’t had a great start to the year by any means failing to win a tournament. His best finishes of the year were at the WWT Championship at Mayakoba and the Valspar Championship where he finished 3rd. Thomas has yet to miss the cut this year in nine starts. In addition to that, he has yet to miss the cut in his six appearances at Augusta. Speaking of Augusta, Thomas has finished inside the top 40 in every start at the Masters. His best finish at the Masters was back in 2020 where he finished 4th.
Despite failing to win this year, JT ranks very highly in several key categories this week. He’s 14th in SG: OFF, 5th in SG: APP, 35th in SG: ATG, 2nd in SG: T2G, and 3rd in SG: TOT. Thomas is one of the longer hitters off the tee ranking 16th in Driving Distance. While the additional distance should put him in shorter approach situations, he has shown he can take advantage of those scenarios ranking 6th in GIR %. In terms of scoring Thomas ranks inside the top 10 in Par 3, Par 4, and Par 5 Scoring. He also leads the Tour in Birdie or Better Percentage.
I’m sure everyone will have a different view point on if Tiger at the Masters positively or negatively affects JT. For me it’s a positive, we heard about JT hanging out at Augusta with Tiger and Charlie earlier this week on the range. Tiger’s been one of Thomas’ biggest mentors so with him there I think it only provides additional confidence for him capturing his first green jacket.
Patrick Cantlay (+2500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.32 to win 8.00 Units
Cantlay won the 2021 FedEx Cup Playoffs and has had a disappointing season so far, failing to capture a win. His best finish of the 2022 season came back in February where he finished 2nd at the WM Phoenix Open. Despite not finding the winners circle, he does have four Top 25’s in 7 events played. In his last event, the WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, he finished T26.
Patrick Cantlay has an interesting track record at the Masters. Last year he missed the cut but prior to that, he finished 17th in 2020 and 9th in 2019 before missing the cut again in 2018. When you look at key stats for this event, Cantlay ranks very high in most of them. He’s one of the longer players off the tee ranking 48th in Driving Distance. In addition to that he ranks inside the top 30 in SG: OTT, SG: ATG, SG: Putting, SG:T2G, and SG: Total. The one area concern is his approach play which is a crucial stat this week. That being said, we’ve seen when he does gain strokes on approach, which he did at the WM Phoenix Open, he has a chance at winning.
In terms of scoring he also ranks very highly in several key categories as well. He’s 1st in Par 5 Scoring Average, 6th in Par 4 Scoring Average, and 3rd in Birdie of Better Percentage. As I mentioned before, I think he has a great shot here if his irons are on.
Will Zalatoris (+3600) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.23 to win 8.28 Units
Willy Z came out firing in his debut at the Masters last year finishing one stroke behind Matsuyama. He nearly became the first player since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979 to win the Masters as a tournament rookie.
Zalatoris is another player I’m backing this week that has a ranks highly in SG: T2G. This year he actually ranks 1st in that category which has a strong correlation to success at Augusta. He’s great off the tee but does struggle around the green a bit which is a concern.
This year Zalatoris has yet to capture a win but has been playing well. His best finish of the year came at the Farmers Insurance Open where he took 2nd. He has yet to miss a cut in his last seven tournaments and has four top 10’s during that stretch. Also, he hasn’t finished outside the top 40 in those seven events so he really is playing some solid golf.
As we look back a previous Master’s Champions, Spieth and DJ both finished 2nd the year prior to them winning so I can easily see Will Zalatoris following that trend this year.
Shane Lowry (+5500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.15 to win 8.25 Units
Dare I say it? My favorite bet of the week? I really like Shane Lowry this week to capture his first Masters. He enters the event in pretty good form finishing inside the top 20 in three of his last four starts. His best finish of the year actually started that run where he took 2nd at the Honda Classic and honestly, should have won that event if it wasn’t for brutal weather conditions. However, I don’t feel too bad for him as we cashed Sepp Straka at 125-1.
Off the tee Lowry isn’t one of the longest players on Tour ranking 91st in Driving Distance. That being said, he ranked very highly in adjusted driving distance at the Valspar which is an encouraging sign. Shane ranks 50th in SG: OTT, 11th in SG: APP, 17th in SG: Putting, 26th in SG: T2G, and 9th in SG: TOT. His play around the green is definitely a concern this week as it does correlate to success here but in his last three events he’s been much better in that area.
Lowry struggled at Augusta in his first few starts missing the cut in three of his first four appearances here. In the following two years, he’s played much better finished 25th in 2020 and 21st in 2021. Given the way Lowry has been striking the ball lately and his trend at Augusta, I think he has a real good shot.
Luke List (+15000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
This was a late add for sure from me. I was put onto List by Coach, @NorthForker12 on Twitter as a possible play this week. Luke List is a resident in Augusta, Georgia so he’ll be able to enjoy the comfort of his own home this week. The last time he played at Augusta National was back in 2005 when he won the low amateur.
Earlier this season Luke List captured his first PGA Tour victory at the Farmers Insurance Open. Since then he has struggled a bit only cracking the top 40 in one of his last five stroke play events. Despite a poor track record coming into this event, List remains one of the best players on Tour in terms of SG: T2G ranking 3rd. While he’s great off the tee, he’s also solid in terms of approach ranking 25th in strokes gained and around the green ranking 17th in strokes gained. His weakness is his putting but as I’ve mentioned before we’ve seen some historically bad putters win the Masters before.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.34 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Jon Rahm (+120) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.20 Units
Rahm has finished inside the Top 10 in all four of his previous starts at the Masters. He recently lost his world number 1 ranking and has been so close to winning an event this year. I honestly, wouldn’t be shocked if this was the week he captured his first green jacket. He ranks well in every key category and even if his putting isn’t great this week, which it hasn’t been all year, I think he still has a very good shot to finish Top 10.
Picks (Top 20):
Daniel Berger (+140) – Pointsbet
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Let’s start with the glaring red flag, Berger missed the cut at the Masters last year. He didn’t play in 2019 or 2022 but finished 10th in 2016, 27th in 2017, and 32nd in 2018. Berger also should have won the Honda Classic after having the largest 54-hole lead in tournament history. Again, not going to complain as we cashed Sepp Straka at 125-1.
Now that all of the negatives are out of the way, let’s look at the positives. In his six starts this season, Berger has finished inside the Top 20 in five of them excluding the match play event. While he hasn’t won this year, he’s been an absolute Top 20 machine.
Berger ranks inside the top 45 in all six of the strokes gained categories headlined by 4th in SG:TOT. He’s not particularly long off the tee but is one of the most accurate players on Tour. His approach game is extremely solid along with his short game which makes him a great fit for this course. Given his form this year, I think he finally breaks through at Augusta and places inside the Top 20.
Joaquin Niemann (+200) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
If you read this far you’ll notice that Riviera is a course comp to Augusta National where Joaquin Niemann won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. He’s been one of the best young players on Tour this year. Nieman has the distance off the tee and is one of the best approach players on tour. His short game hasn’t been too bad either ranking 6th in SG: ATG. While he isn’t a great putter at all, we’ve seen that when he does gain strokes putting he has success. In his last four starts he hasn’t been bad putting wise gaining strokes in two of those events and barely losing strokes on the green in the other two.
Last year at Augusta Niemann finished 40th but wasn’t nearly in as good as form. He’s finished T22 or better in three of his last four starts excluding that match play event. Niemann hasn’t played since then as he’s been preparing for this event so I expect him to be well rested and focused.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Christian Bezuidenhout (+140) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Let’s start with this Bez has finished Top 40 or better in his last five majors he’s competed in. In his last four starts on Tour he has finished Top 40 or better in two of them, which isn’t necessarily all that great when you look at it. However, in his last two starts at Augusta, 2020 and 2021, he has finished inside the Top 40 in both of them. He ranks well inside the top 100 in pretty much every major strokes gained category besides putting. To be more specific, he ranks in the top 50 in three of those six categories. He’s not a “bomber” off the tee by any means but he’s accurate and won’t get himself in trouble. I don’t think he can win this week but I do believe come Sunday he’ll be inside or around this number. This is also a value play as most other books have him at -110/-120 to finish T40 or better.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Masters: 5.34 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
