As you know, there are no NBA games today so we move to the Tuesday slate. Below are my leans for Tuesday – I’ll get you the full list of premium picks by this afternoon. The below leans are not official yet, and just because they’re leans doesn’t mean I’ll have an actual play. Just giving you a glimpse into my thoughts:
NBA Leans 4.5:
Pacers +12.5
Hawks +4
Rockets/Nets over
Bucks -4
Blazers/OKC over
Grizzlies +5
Spurs +6
NCAA Title Game:
NC +4, 1 unit
NC has proven us wrong and won outright as the dog, over and over again. They have the talent and poise to hang with a team like Kansas – let’s see if they can pull it off.
Over 152, 1.5 units
This seems like the most logical bet. I know it’s the title game and nerves are high, but nerves have BEEN high and these two offenses just keep showing up and showing off. I think it comes down to who misses a few shots at the end of the contest.
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Looking at the Knicks in the first half on the road in this ugly game where they have performed well of late tied for second best in the league going 8-2 1H ATS L10. The Magic have been covering some of their games at home of late but are just 3-7 1H L10 and still are without Suggs and Carter. The Knicks backcourt have shown they can score and have been doing so even without Randle. It’s almost as if their locker room is saying, we’ll be fine with, or without him.
I’m looking for the Knicks to continue their strong early play on the road against this ORL team today, where they led in two of their three earlier matchups. Motivation shouldn’t be an issue as NY should be looking to tie up the season series after getting embarrassed twice at home.
Two additional plays at my Patreon today, follow or fade!
Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
AL East
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Toronto Blue Jays +140/ 92.5
New York Yankees +225/ 92.5
Tampa Bay Rays +225/ 88.5
Boston Red Sox +525/ 85.5
Baltimore Orioles +4500/ 62.5
Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays who are very young took a big step forward last year winning 91 games. The offensive attack is led by 2nd generation MLBers Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Bo Bichette. George Springer will likely lead the league in runs and boppers Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez will bring him home plenty of times. They made huge upgrades to the pitching staff adding Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios. They are strong at closer with Jordan Romano, but the rest of the bullpen is below average. They should take a step forward and pass the Yanks and Rays in the division this year. Prediction 94-68
New York Yankees – The Bronx Bombers won 92 games last year but suffered an early exit in the post season. Their lineup features an impressive top to bottom power attack that added Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this off season. Anthony Rizzo also resigned with the club following his stint with the Yanks last fall. They will join the mashers in the middle of the order Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo. The pitching staff is anchored by Cy Young runner up Gerrit Cole. The rest of the rotation showcases Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, and Jameson Taillion. They could look for an upgrade from a trade yet in season for the rotation. The bullpen remains solid with Aroldis Chapman and Chad Green shutting things down in the late innings. Prediction 92-70
Boston Red Sox – The Sox made it all the way to the ALCS in 2021 and certainly outperformed the pundits expectations. The lineup is very similar to 2021, but will add Trevor Story who will look to see if he can take his success at Coors Field to Fenway. The pitching staff is currently a question mark. Chris Sale will be out until at least May, and James Paxton will likely be out the first half of year as he recovers from Tommy John. That leaves Nathan Eovaldi as the staff work horse, along with young over-performers from last year Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta. Garrett Whitlock will look to transition to the rotation from the bullpen. In that bullpen Matt Barnes has amazing stuff, but he fell apart down the stretch last year. I think this team still makes some noise in 2022. Prediction 88-74
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays won 100 games last year and took home their second straight AL East title. They will be a youth movement again on offense, with all world prospect Wander Franco and playoff sensation Randy Arozarena at the top of the order. Brandon Lowe a silver slugger at 2nd and Austin Meadows are in the middle to bring them home. Mike Zunino is an all or nothing cather who could hit 40 bombs and strikeout 200 times. The rotation brought in Corey Kluber who will look to regain his past success. Shane McClanahan and Shane Baz should follow him. The rest of the rotation is underwhelming. The bullpen by committee approach and the bullpen openers were recently invented by the Rays and they have arms to do it again in 2022. Prediction 84-78
Baltimore Orioles – The orange birds are not good. They have been rebuilding for four years. And while the Rays keep churning out young prospects that can compete, the O’s keep churning out 100 loss seasons. They do have a 30/30 homegrown player in Cedric Mullins, and upcoming catching prospect Adley Rutschman to look forward to. John Means is solid in the rotation, but that is it. Bullpen closer Cole Sulser has the stuff to be successful, but wont get the chance to bring home saves very often. They just don’t have the talent to compete in this stacked division. Prediction 64-98
My Free plays on the AL East are as follows:
I think the Rays way outdid themselves last year. The rest of the division made improvements where they stood relatively pat. That number seems high. I think the Red Sox can repeat what they did last year and there’s some value on the division number and season win total for them.
Enjoyed that 4-1, +4 unit Saturday – less talking, more winning.
NBA Picks:
Celtics TT over 118, 1.5 units
A Celtics fan and sharp bettor noticed that Boston is running faster and pushing offense without R. Williams III. Looking back, that’s more evident than I realized. Boston should tear through the porous Washington defense and remember, Boston still very much has a shot at the #1 seed. That should be enough motivation for a blowout today.
Bucks -5, 1.5 units
Milwaukee sat everyone that mattered Friday; that won’t be the case today. Dallas is a very formidable team but I love the Bucks pace and energy at full health, at home. Giannis will play- all Bucks for me, especially since they’re also still within range of the #1 seed.
Pistons +2.5, 1 unit
Not a game to overly-invest in, but Detroit loves to be a dog and Cunningham might just play. If he does, they should be the favorite.
Timberwolves -12.5, 2 units
The T-Wolves covered this number with ease in two previous contests – I can’t rationalize any reason to not bet on that happening again, especially since Minnesota is at full health and the Rockets, not so much.
Heat/Raptors under 212.5, 1.5 units
Remember the Heat/Celtics game this week? This has a similar feel. It’ll be a battle in the paint between two playoff teams, and both run at a slow, defensive pace.
Warriors -6, 1 unit
Golden State’s win last night was a big deal, for their momentum, peace of mind, and chemistry. I see that carrying over into today as the Warriors look to gain steam before the postseason.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Solid Sunday Card up and Led by the Highest Rated 7* 2022 NBA Game Of The Year from a Rare Undefeated Long term System. There is also NHL, Soccer and NASCAR. NHL Comp play below.
The NHL Comp Play is on the Florida Panthers -1.5 goals at 1:00 eastern. Florida rallied from a 4 goal deficit on Saturday to taken out the Devils. Now they make the short trek to Buffalo. Florida has the #1 offense matched up against a Sabres team that is 25th on offense and defense. Buffalo has lost 46 of 61 with 1 day of rest, 13 of 18 vs Atlantic division teams and 8 of 11 on Sundays. Florida has won all 4 times in a 4th game in 6 night scenario,9 of 10 vs Atlantic division teams, 44 of 56 vs teams under .500 and 21 of 29 in the series. In two games this year Florida has won both by a 13-5 combined score. Look for the Panthers to get a multiple goal win here today. On Sunday we have our 2022 NBA 7* Game Of The Year a top 7* release. There is also NHL, Soccer and NASCAR. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we end the week big. For the NHL Comp play. Go with Florida -1.5. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
This is a Subscriber Play, I sent out North Carolina at +4.5 on Monday to my Subscriber Friends. Subscriber Plays are 30-11 ATS the last 41 games (73%). Become a Subscriber Here via The OddsBreakers.
We have already cashed an 18 to 1 ticket on Carolina to reach the Final 4 and have National Champion futures on Carolina +9000, Nova +2500 and Kansas +1400.
Carolina has an edge here in rebounding which is something I like to look at.
Also, the Tar Heels are holding opponents to 37.5 % shooting over their last 5 games.
I look at Carolina’s path in the tournament, They opened this tournament by beating Marquette by 32 points. They had Baylor down by 25 points, met some adversity in that game, and showed a lot to me fending off that come back by Baylor, and then beat the Cinderella of this tournament St Peters by 20 points after St Peters had knocked off Kentucky and Purdue
UNC is 8-1 ATS their last 9 games overall. They are 8-2 ATS their last 10 meetings with Duke including going in to Cameron and winning by 13 on March 5
Duke 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs a team with a win % above .600
I think this is too many points Duke is giving vs a team in UNC that I think is the hottest team in college basketball right now.
My Computer Model 2 also projected North Carolina at +4.5. Model 2 and I are 54-33 against the spread this season when we agree on a play.
My last 5 games model projects UNC +4.5 as well , we are 7-3 when this model and I agree on a Spread Pick.
I will release ALL MLB Futures on Monday to my Subscribers
You can become a Subscriber Here via The OddsBreakers.
MLB Future
Philadelphia Phillies Over 84.5 Wins
Philly would need to improve by 3 wins over last season’s total of 82 wins
The Phillies have added Nick Castellanos to hit behind Bryce Harper.
I think this pitching staff has some potential with Nola as a #1 and Ranger Suarez the left hander who finished 2021 with a 1.36 ERA in 106 IP. Then you have Zach Wheeler who pitched over 200 innings last season and had an ERA under 3.
Philadelphia looks to have upgraded their bullpen that was 25th in ERA last season by adding Corey Knebel, Brad Hand and Juryus Familia.
This team has made moves to improve their line up and their bullpen. I think these moves translate into at least 3 more wins from last season.
Kiev is 43-27 ATS/OU up 36U since Day 1 of the NCAA tournament! To support the hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to become a member and get all of Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays daily!
Blue Bloods Part 2!
North Carolina vs Duke -4.5 O/U 151
What a perfect game and perfect finish for Coach K’s career to face Duke’s rival in North Carolina in the Final 4. It’s shocking to me that these two teams have never met in the NCAA tournament with their significant history, and such a great rivalry in college sports. Let’s take a look at some of that history.
Back on Feb. 5 2022, when Duke visited the Dean Smith Center for the last time under Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels 87-67 to claim the coach’s 50th win in the rivalry. All-time, Krzyzewski sits with a 50-46 record, and he will try to extend it out to 51-46 if Duke can win on Saturday. The only season in which Krzyzewski did not coach in the rivalry came in the 1994-95 campaign, when he was recovering from back surgery.
Only one coach has more wins in the rivalry than Krzyzewski and that is the legend of Dean Smith. In Smith’s career at UNC, he went 59-35 against the Blue Devils, including a 24-14 mark against Krzyzewski when their careers overlapped. The UNC coach’s teams out-scored Krzyzewski’s 3,060-2,921 in those matchups. Since Smith retired following the 1996-97 season, Coach K has owned the rivalry. He has gone 36-22 in the time since, including 23-19 against coach Roy Williams, who retired at the end of the 2020-21 campaign. Krzyzewski’s Duke teams have outscored the Tar Heels 7,517-7,468. Since Smith retired, Duke has outscored UNC 4,596-4,408.
Let’s get to the game shall we? I must say that a soon as number eight North Carolina beat Baylor in the group of 32, the thought crossed my mind that UNC could meet up with Duke in the Final 4, and this was before the Zags were eliminated. If we wanted to add a little more spice to this rivalry, UNC is the only team to not honor coach K in his last year at their home game vs Duke earlier this season. There are two ways of looking at this game, we can use the full season of statistics where Duke has remained a top six caliber team the whole way through while UNC was in doubt to even make the tournament just six weeks ago, or we could look at what these teams since UNC’s ugly loss to Pittsburgh. I think the later is more appropriate the way that UNC has rebounded from that loss and went on a crazy run including beating Duke at coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Arena. Looking at shear momentum, we have to give it to UNC who ranks 12th in the nation. From the perspective of a pure season power rating, Duke has the edge by about 4 points on a neutral court over North Carolina, but if we look at Jeff Sagarin’s recent column in his power ratings here https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-basketball-team-ratings-2021-22/, he has the Tar Heels favored by 1 point.
I do not think that either team will have a near proximity or mid range advantage over each other from a matchup standpoint, but I do think that both teams are shooting lights out from three point land. Both squads ranking in the top 28 in adjusted three point percentage while neither team defends the long ball all that well. Looking at the coaching, you have to give the advantage to coach K. He has all of the experience in this situation over first year coach Hubert Davis, and the charisma to work the officiating in the dire moments in the biggest of all games. I will say that Hubie has certainly proven his worth as a coach over the last six weeks of this season, but it has never been done to see a rookie head coach make it to the final game of the tournament and Kevin Ollie was the closest one to ever do it in his second year at UCONN back in 2014.
Another thing that we must acknowledge is that there might be a lack of defense in this game being that these two teams both rank number 1 and number 2 in opponent free throws attempted per game. I think that this crazy coincidence might be a mixture of the fact that these teams do not like to foul early thus allowing their opponents easier shots juxtaposed with the perception that these teams sometimes get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras. I suppose it is a good thing that they are playing each other, but I also think that this type of offensive oriented play is contusive to a faster paced game and giving up lots of points. See what I am getting at here? North Carolina plays a very fast pace game ranking 36th in pace in the nation and Duke has been known this year to speed it up when they have to. During their last matchup, the teams reached 75 possessions and with a total score of 175. I think that this game has a very good chance to pace over 72 possessions and this is why we see a total of over 150.
Looking at the Matchups, the speed of this game, and the potential lack of defense, I have to lean to the over even in a bad shooting venue such as the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and that venue might be the only thing keeping me off of it. What I will say is that I make this only a three point game and think that there is some value on the Tarheels here. UNC beat Duke in their most important regular season game this year on senior night in Cameron Indoor Stadium, and players like Love and Bacot have really stepped it up. Duke on the other hand has also been playing out of their minds but they do lack experience at an average age of 19 years old. I have Duke winning this game 79-76, but don’t be shocked if UNC wins this, and I will put a play in on UNC +4.5 with a strong lean to the over.
UNC +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Maybe grab the over 151 and buy back for half when the number creeps up past 153
