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The 2022 Final 4 – First Blue Bloods Part 2 – North Carolina vs Duke – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Kiev is 43-27 ATS/OU up 36U since Day 1 of the NCAA tournament!  To support the hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to become a member and get all of Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays daily!

Blue Bloods Part 2!

North Carolina vs Duke -4.5 O/U 151

What a perfect game and perfect finish for Coach K’s career to face Duke’s rival in North Carolina in the Final 4.   It’s shocking to me that these two teams have never met in the NCAA tournament with their significant history, and such a great rivalry in college sports.  Let’s take a look at some of that history.

Back on Feb. 5 2022, when Duke visited the Dean Smith Center for the last time under Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils beat the Tar Heels 87-67 to claim the coach’s 50th win in the rivalry. All-time, Krzyzewski sits with a 50-46 record, and he will try to extend it out to 51-46 if Duke can win on Saturday. The only season in which Krzyzewski did not coach in the rivalry came in the 1994-95 campaign, when he was recovering from back surgery.

Only one coach has more wins in the rivalry than Krzyzewski and that is the legend of Dean Smith.  In Smith’s career at UNC, he went 59-35 against the Blue Devils, including a 24-14 mark against Krzyzewski when their careers overlapped. The UNC coach’s teams out-scored Krzyzewski’s 3,060-2,921 in those matchups.  Since Smith retired following the 1996-97 season, Coach K has owned the rivalry. He has gone 36-22 in the time since, including 23-19 against coach Roy Williams, who retired at the end of the 2020-21 campaign.  Krzyzewski’s Duke teams have outscored the Tar Heels 7,517-7,468. Since Smith retired, Duke has outscored UNC 4,596-4,408.

Let’s get to the game shall we?   I must say that a soon as number eight North Carolina beat Baylor in the group of 32, the thought crossed my mind that UNC could meet up with Duke in the Final 4, and this was before the Zags were eliminated.  If we wanted to add a little more spice to this rivalry, UNC is the only team to not honor coach K in his last year at their home game vs Duke earlier this season.   There are two ways of looking at this game, we can use the full season of statistics where Duke has remained a top six caliber team the whole way through while UNC was in doubt to even make the tournament just six weeks ago, or we could look at what these teams since UNC’s ugly loss to Pittsburgh.  I think the later is more appropriate the way that UNC has rebounded from that loss and went on a crazy run including beating Duke at coach K’s final game at Cameron Indoor Arena.  Looking at shear momentum, we have to give it to UNC who ranks 12th in the nation.  From the perspective of a pure season power rating, Duke has the edge by about 4 points on a neutral court over North Carolina, but if we look at Jeff Sagarin’s recent column in his power ratings here https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-basketball-team-ratings-2021-22/, he has the Tar Heels favored by 1 point.

I do not think that either team will have a near proximity or mid range advantage over each other from a matchup standpoint, but I do think that both teams are shooting lights out from three point land.  Both squads ranking in the top 28 in adjusted three point percentage while neither team defends the long ball all that well.  Looking at the coaching, you have to give the advantage to coach K.  He has all of the experience in this situation over first year coach Hubert Davis, and the charisma to work the officiating in the dire moments in the biggest of all games.   I will say that Hubie has certainly proven his worth as a coach over the last six weeks of this season, but it has never been done to see a rookie head coach make it to the final game of the tournament and Kevin Ollie was the closest one to ever do it in his second year at UCONN back in 2014.

Another thing that we must acknowledge is that there might be a lack of defense in this game being that these two teams both rank number 1 and number 2 in opponent free throws attempted per game.   I think that this crazy coincidence might be a mixture of the fact that these teams do not like to foul early thus allowing their opponents easier shots juxtaposed with the perception that these teams sometimes get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras.  I suppose it is a good thing that they are playing each other, but I also think that this type of offensive oriented play is contusive to a faster paced game and giving up lots of points.  See what I am getting at here?   North Carolina plays a very fast pace game ranking 36th in pace in the nation and Duke has been known this year to speed it up when they have to.  During their last matchup, the teams reached 75 possessions and with a total score of 175.   I think that this game has a very good chance to pace over 72 possessions and this is why we see a total of over 150.

Looking at the Matchups, the speed of this game, and the potential lack of defense, I have to lean to the over even in a bad shooting venue such as the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, and that venue might be the only thing keeping me off of it.  What I will say is that I make this only a three point game and think that there is some value on the Tarheels here.   UNC beat Duke in their most important regular season game this year on senior night in Cameron Indoor Stadium, and players like Love and Bacot have really stepped it up.  Duke on the other hand has also been playing out of their minds but they do lack experience at an average age of 19 years old.  I have Duke winning this game 79-76, but don’t be shocked if UNC wins this, and I will put a play in on UNC +4.5 with a strong lean to the over.

UNC +4.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Maybe grab the over 151 and buy back for half when the number creeps up past 153

Final Four Official Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Mar 26, 2022; San Antonio, TX, USA; Villanova Wildcats head coach Jay Wright reacts during the first half against the Houston Cougars in the finals of the South regional of the men's college basketball NCAA Tournament at AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

I’ve locked in 2 official plays for tonight’s Final Four and plan to live bet up to 2 more plays over the course of one of these games. To receive a text when I add any plays to my card, join my Telegram group! Enjoy the games, and let’s have ourselves a night!

*CBB(1u): Villanova 1H +2(-110) vs Kansas–5:09 PM CT

*CBB(0.5u): Villanova 1H ML(+135) vs Kansas–5:09 PM CT

Kansas looked like a well-oiled machine in the second half of their last game vs Miami, but this is also a team that has yet to put up a good 40 minute effort against a viable team in the Tournament. They trailed by 6 at the Half in that Miami game, squeaked out a 5 point win against Providence in a game the Friars shot just 34% from the floor, and let a depleted Creighton team hang around for far too long. The Jayhawks can certainly turn it up offensively, but I believe this Villanova defense is ready for the challenge. I know Ohio State and Michigan are far from complete teams, but each has a very good offense. We saw the Wildcats allow just 61 to Ohio State and then just 55 to Michigan. I think Kansas’ defense is the worst unit on the floor, and they’re going to face a Villanova offense that doesn’t beat themselves. The Wildcats run at one of the slowest paces in the country, take care of the basketball, and oftentimes get very good looks from beyond the arc. I know the new environment might lead you to believe the more 3-point dependent team could struggle early, but given Villanova’s experience level and consistency, I don’t expect them to flinch even in this new environment.

I know the Wildcats are without Justin Moore, and I won’t try to convince you that is not a big loss. HOWEVER, Jay Wright has a system, and that system works. I have a hard time believing that, with a week to prepare for this game, Wright won’t find a way to account for Moore’s loss. Jay Wright has won 2 championships in the last 6 years and is in the Final Four this year for a reason. While Bill Self recruits at a high level, we’ve only seen him be able to hang up 1 banner despite having far more talented rosters than Wright. I think there is a sizable coaching edge in this game, and I think we see that on display more so in the first half than in the second. I know Villanova’s incredible free-throw efficiency usually makes them a safe bet over the full game, but we’ve also seen Kansas be able to turn it up offensively to a level that I don’t want to play against over the Full Game. With that said, I like Villanova 1H +2 and 1H ML in this spot.

*Duke/North Carolina Plan

I think the current number(Duke -4) is razor sharp. While I would certainly lean towards Duke pregame, I ultimately don’t want to lay more than a possession with the Blue Devils in this spot. So, I’m going to look to live bet the side and total of this game depending on what type of start we get. We saw Duke trail by 4 at Halftime to Texas Tech and ultimately win by 5; I think we could get a similar type of result tonight. Rather than buy any points and have to lay an insane amount of juice, I’m going to wait until I can live bet Duke at -2 or better. The Blue Devils have shown me a lot over their last 3 games; to be down 5 with 2 minutes to go against Michigan State and win by 9, and then to put up 78 on arguably the 2 best defenses remaining in the Tournament is very impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a fast start from UNC, but I don’t think they’ll sustain the level of efficiency they’ve shown as of late for the full 40 minute game. I also want to live bet this Over once these teams get their bearings in the unfamiliar environment. 151.5 is an extremely high total for a Final Four game, but in these teams’ two prior matchups, they combined for 154 points in Chapel Hill and then 175 points in Cameron Indoor. I do believe there will be an adjustment period early in this game for both squads, but when push comes to shove and these teams settle in, I expect the offensive efficiency of each team to pick up greatly. 

Premiums, April 2

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Big day and I’m sick of talking – let’s get some fucking wins.

NBA Picks:
  • Hornets +5.5, 1.5 units
    • Doc Rivers is starting to point fingers, or maybe just one big finger at James Harden, while the Sixers attempt to figure out their issues. The Hornets are surging again, with big offense and an aggressive attack at the rim. The Hornets have played Philly close all year – add this one to the list.
  • Cavs/Knicks over 215.5, 2 units
    • Julius Randle out for the Knicks means more speed and perimeter shooting. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley out for the Cavs means a guard predicated, faster-paced style. I have this game at 225 – I think this total is WAY too low.
  • Warriors ML (+105, 1 unit to win 1.05)
    • The Warriors are playing hard and they’re in real danger of falling in the Western Conference. I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Jazz. I mean, they let a shallow Lakers squad hang in a recent game. I’m taking a shot on Golden State.
  • Lean, Heat -3
    • The Heat are a much better team than the Bulls but this is a tough spot with a B2B coming tomorrow.
NCAAM Picks:
  • Kansas -4, 1.5 units
    • Villanova will try to slow this down, but like we saw last weekend vs. Miami, the Kansas offense can overwhelm opponents quick with their length in the front court and exceptional shooting. It’ll be too much for the WIldcats.
  • North Carolina +4, 2 units
    • How can I not double down on the dog in this contest? I would take the point either way – this should come down to the end.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

The 2022 Final 4 – First Blue Bloods Part 1 – Villanova vs Kansas – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Kiev is 43-27 ATS/OU up 36U since Day 1 of the NCAA tournament!  To support the hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to become a member and get all of Kiev O’Neil’s premium plays daily!

Blue Bloods Part 1!

Villanova vs Kansas -4.5 O/U 133

This game should be so good that even a crazed war veteran like John Rambo would stop crushing commies and come sit down and watch it.  I think that I speak for anyone who isn’t a Kansas fan that I am pretty bummed out about the injury to starter Justin Moore for the Villanova Wildcats.   That last game vs Houston was so close to being over, and his extra effort tore his Achilles and ended is season so abruptly.   Moore is the second leading scorer at 14.8 points per game and the minutes played leader at 34.8.  Now most of the metrics sites has this game a close one with Kansas being favored by 1 point without factoring in this injury.   This is where we have to dive in and find out what the proper reaction is to this disadvantage.   One thing about this whole situation is that we have to keep in mind that Nova pretty much has played most the year on a 6 man rotation.   Their 7th and 8th players off the bench are at least both guards though who do not even average 10 minutes of playing time per game.   Do we trust the talent that this team recruits to step up here when needed?   Well the answer is yes and we have to give Jay Write the benefit of the doubt.

If I have learned one thing while handicapping college basketball games over the years, it’s that no player is worth over three points to any program and especially to a team that recruits talent and has a great coach.  Numbers have also shown in the past that teams who lose a key player tend to rise up to the challenge in the very next game and this is the spot that we keying in on.   Let’s look at some matchups.  Villanova ranks 66th in adjusted 3 point percentage and Kansas ranks 8th in defending it.  The issue for the Cats is that they rank 9th in three point attempts which could spell disaster if Kansas defends them well.   Kansas themselves shoots the long ball well ranking 27th in adjusted 3 point percentage but Villanova ranks 5th in defending it.  Overall advantage, Kansas.   In near proximity shooting, Kansas is better but Villanova’s defense is also better than Kansas’s so this shows to be a wash.   As far as free throws go, nobody is better than the Wildcats shooting over 82% as a team.   The Jayhawks shoot 71.9% which is average at 164th in the nation.   Advantage Villanova.  As far as coaching, I have to give a slight edge to Jay Wright over Bill Self but it is very slight as Self has proven to be a wonderful tournament coach himself.

I think that we have to think like a smart coach here in a situation where a team lost their second best player.   Kansas is the better team and I give them a 65% chance of winning this game, but I also think that Villanova will slow the game down to a crawl, and hope that the fewer possessions allow his team to take some better shots and stay in this game.  The Formula has been out to beat Kansas thanks to the Texas schools who all gave Kansas fits.  TCU, Texas, Texas Tech, and Baylor have all beaten Kansas this year by slowing down the speed in the game with all wins having less than 70 possessions.  This is the way that Jay Wright is going to attack this very talented Jayhawks squad, and he will hope that the dark backdrops of Mercedes Benz Superdome will help his team out.   I can see this game remaining in the low 60s and will lean to the under.   What keeps me off the full game under is the desperation fouls that could happen at the end.  I do like the first half under 62.5 points but when this spread breaches the 5, I will be looking to play Villanova here due to the coaching and the venue.

1st half under 62.5 – 2.5 stars
Wait on the line to go past 5 to bet the Cats

 

 

 

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday Power System Play-Pick and Preview

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday card is loaded and has the 26-0 Final 4 totals system early and our Top Final 4 side Play in later evening as well an Executive Level TIER 1 NBA Tonight along with red hot NHL. Early NBA Comp Play below.
The NBA Comp Play is on the Over in the Charlotte at Philadelphia game at 12:40 eastern. As soon as the Sixers lost as a heavy favorite in Detroit the database became curious as to how these home teams do off a big upset road favored loss. The Findings provided a nice 85% over system for home teams off a road favored loss at -9 or more vs an opponent like Charlotte that scored 124 or more in a road favored win. These two have gone over in 7 of the last 9. The Hornets are 5-0 over with 2 days rest,7 of 9 over vs a winning team and 5 of 7 off a 10+ point win. The Sixers are 5 of 6 over with 1 day of rest,4 of 5 off a loss and 4 of 5 vs a losing team. Look for a higher scoring game here play the over. On Saturday we have both final 4 plays one is a 26-0 totals system and the other from a huge Side system cashing 96%. We also have an Executive Level NBA TIER 1 Tonight and NHL Which has been killing it. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we are already off fast in April. For the NBA Comp play. Play Charlotte and Philly Over the total. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Weekend Premier League Plays!

By
Steve Norman
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Premier League action is back! I cannot be any more excited, that two week International break took forever. During the break took a hit partaking in the USA/Mexico WC qualifying match to bring us below the green in our unit count. However, it is a new weekend and we have 10 matches from Saturday into Monday to bounce back!

Current soccer record: 25-30   -0.85 Unit

Norwich +1 (+100) 2 Units, Draw +315 1 unit, ML +705 1 unit

I am always transparent and quite frankly I cannot find myself not sprinkling on every possible outcome here with Norwich. As we know these are to two bad clubs, but the value is simply there.   We are getting +705 odds against a club that hasn’t won its past 6 matches and only found the net 1 time in that stretch.   Playing devils advocate: Norwich has lost it’s past 7, but has at least shown a pulse burying 5 in the net in that stretch. But again, the value against an equally floundering team is worth a look. Last time these clubs met in October it was a 0-0 draw.  Now that clubs are coming off their 2 week break, they will be rejuvenated and focused.  Brighton sitting in the middle of the table doesn’t necessarily have the same urgency for points as much as Norwich.  Norwich is in serious danger of facing relegation sitting at the bottom of the table and need to find wins. This certainly is a winnable match for them and I think that extra motivation helps guide them to least a point here. I know this is a 4 unit over all play but I strongly feel it has tremendous/realistic upside.

My other weekend plays 1 unit each:

Man City Under 3 (-116)

Brentford +1.25 (-101)

Wolverhampton Pk (+109)

Leeds Under 3 (-125)

Leicester +1 (+102)

West Ham Over 2.5 (-104)

Tottenham Over 2.75 (+102)

MLB AL West Futures – Team Totals

By
Nick Hub
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1ST PITCH IS IN 6 DAYS!! Today, we dug into the AL West and found some value with 3 team totals. The Astros should win this division again, even without Carlos Correa, but their team total is right where it should be and the division winner is juiced too much for my liking.  I have the 3 teams below that I ended up finding value in their team totals. NL East on deck!

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Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have arguably the best 2 players in baseball but miss the playoffs year after year.  Why? Pitching.  Last year, they finished with 77 wins while their starters posted a 1.37 WHIP (24th in the league) and a 4.31 FIP (17th).  The bullpen wasn’t any better posting a 1.40 WHIP (25th) and a 4.38 xFIP (20th).  Even with 2 of the best hitters in the league, the offense finished the season with the 20th best wOBA (.308) in the majors.  So, lets see what they did this offseason to better their results.  They lost 4 pitchers and 2 outfielders to free agency and their big “splash” signs were SP Noah Synndergaard and RP Aaron Loup.  Although Syndergaard owns an excellent 2.93 career FIP but he has only pitched 2 innings since 2019.  If he can get back to form, both were both good signings, however, that won’t be enough to push their win total 6-7 games higher than last season and there aren’t any difference makers in the minors that will be joining the Major League team this year.  Mike Trout is now 30 and has yet to play in the playoffs but can the Joe Madden led squad change that this year? I say no.  Take Under 83.5 wins -104 @FD

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners had a breakout season last year by winning 90 games but that wasn’t enough to break their postseason drought.  They were 33-19 in one inning ball games and 14-7 in extra-inning games so luck may have been on their side in 2021 and they enter this season without their RBI leader, 3B Kyle Seager (retired), and strikeout leader, Yusei Kikuchi (FA), from a year ago.  The M’s went out and signed the AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to join their young staff and traded for 3B Eugenio Suarez and OF Jesse Winker.  Those additions should offset their losses and most likely improve the squad.  A squad that had one of the best bullpens in the league last year while their fielding was top third in the MLB, two strengths that should stay strengths.  Its not often that a 90-win team owns the 4th worst wOBA in the majors but that is what happened last season (.300), showing how good the pitching and fielding was.  Saying that, the young core should improve at the plate and on the mound while welcoming a potential star outfielder Julio Rodriguez to the mix.  The division is not strong and they will most likely end up 2nd in the in the standings with the chance to overtake the Astros for the AL West title.  Maybe they aren’t as lucky with the one run and extra inning games but I see this young team to improve to offset that and winning about 88 games this season.  Take Over 83.5 wins -115 @DK

Texas Rangers

The Rangers come into 2022 after winning just 60 games last season.  A season that featured a starting rotation that earned a 3rd worst 5.19 FIP, a bullpen that posted a 4.43 xFIP (20th) and an offense with the worst wOBA in the MLB (.291).  There’s only one way to go, right?  Probably.  The signings of SS Corey Seagar and 2B Marcus Semien will definitely help on the offensive end but you can’t say they did anything to sure up the pitching.  They will, however, welcome potential future ace of the rotation, Jack Leiter, from the minors to help with the rotation and 3B Josh Jung to help with the lack of offensive output.  This is another young team and the veteran additions are great for the team and the clubhouse but this will be a work in progress and don’t see them taking a huge step forward within the division.  There will be plenty of pressure on the offense to produce while Texas will hope that the pitching will get better with experience.  This team will improve but the books have them improving by 14.5 games.  I don’t see it and expect that they will have about 69 wins this season with a better offense and a horrific pitching staff.  Take Under 74.5 wins -110 @FOX

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The Deeper Dive with Michael Fordham–Final Four Preview + 1 NBA Future

By
Michael Fordham
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On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael previews each of Saturday’s Final Four matchups and also gives out 1 NBA future. Stay tuned for next Monday’s episode where Michael will have his preview of the CBB National Championship Game as well as some NBA breakdowns.

Follow Michael on Twitter: @FordhamGambling

Receive a text when Michael releases his plays: https://t.me/fordhamsportsgambling

Access all of Michael’s FREE plays: https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/michaelfordhamsportsgambling-com/

Addressing LeBron and the Lakers

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

If there’s no LeBron tonight, I would seriously consider pulling out of your bet, if it’s possible. Even without LeBron, AD and the Lakers are in a very desperate spot, more desperate than New Orleans, but it’s hard to imagine them winning without King James.

Let me be clear – I’m keeping my bet and I think he absolutely plays, but this NBA injury routine is literally the Wild West. Here’s a full review of our plays and the numbers we got:
  • Mavs/Wizards under 219.5, 1.5 units
  • T-Wolves/Nuggets over 237, 1 unit
  • Pacers TT under 105.5, 2 units
  • Spurs 1H TT over 64, 1.5 units
  • Lakers -2 or +2, 1 unit
Let’s fucking go!
Chris

April 1st NBA Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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Houston Rockets guards Kevin Porter Jr., left, and Jalen Green watch a free throw during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Phoenix Suns, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Houston. (AP Photo/Eric Christian Smith)

Coming off a 1-0-1, +1u night, I’m back at it today looking to kick off the weekend with 3 NBA winners! I’ll have a podcast out early this afternoon where I’ll preview each Final Four matchup and give out 1 NBA future that has caught my eye; subscribe on Apple Podcasts. If you’d like to receive a text when I release my plays, join my Telegram group. Let’s start the weekend off strong!

*NBA(1u): Wizards +9(-110) vs Mavericks–6 PM CT

The Mavericks have won 5 of their last 6 and are in great current form offensively, but I believe this team is starting to get a bit overvalued. Aside from Luka Doncic, I’m just not a believer in much of the supporting cast on this team. Washington is out of the playoff picture, but they seem to be adjusting to Kyle Kuzma’s absence quite nicely. Entering tonight, the Wizards have won 3 of their last 4, with their only loss coming against the Bulls; they trailed by just 2 in that game entering the 4Q. This is Washington’s 4th straight home game, while the Mavericks are in the dreaded 3rd game in 4 nights spot with travel involved in each of those games. This is also somewhat of a look-ahead spot for Dallas with a game in Milwaukee coming up on Sunday. As I said, I think the Mavericks are getting a bit overvalued, and this seems like a spot where they could overlook a Wizards team that is sneakily playing pretty well to close out the season. I’ll grab the points with the large home underdog.

*NBA(1u): Celtics 1H -9(-110) vs Pacers–6:30 PM CT

The Celtics enter tonight off of 2 straight losses, the first time they’ve found themselves in this spot since mid January. There is no better team to get right against than the Pacers. In their last 2 road games, the Pacers trailed by 26 at Half to the Grizzlies and 28 at Half to the Raptors; in other words, this team is toast. Specifically, Indiana is playing the worst defense in the league at the moment, virtually allowing teams to score at will. Contrastly, Boston ranks 1st in defensive efficiency this season. With the Celtics still vying for the #1 seed in the East, this is not a game they’re going to take lightly, especially considering the Pacers blew them out in their last meeting a month ago. I like Boston to take an ungodly lead into the Half tonight. 

*NBA(1u): Rockets +2.5(-110) vs Kings–7 PM CT

This is the second game of a double-header between these two teams; we saw the Kings squeak out a 3 point win in Houston on Wednesday. Here in the wrap-around game, I think the roles reverse. These teams found themselves in a similar spot in January; the Kings won the first game of the doubleheader in Sacramento and then allowed the Rockets to take the 2nd game. This is the last game of a 5 game road trip for Sacramento as well, and they’ve had to stretch their roles greatly with De’Aaron Fox and Damontis Sabonis out of the lineup. Meanwhile, this is Houston’s 3rd straight home game with no back-to-backs involved. I like the Rockets tonight in this quick revenge spot. 

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