Too bad all of yesterday’s bullshit wasn’t April Fool’s huh? Turns out it didn’t take me as long as I thought it would this morning. Onto Friday:
NBA Picks:
Mavs/Wizards under 219.5, 1.5 units
The Mavs play slow and REALLY lock down on defense lately, especially in the second half. The Wizards are incredibly inept as a shooting team, they just are, and they’re not particularly fast or potent in any regard. This is a sleepy under spot and wouldn’t be surprised if it fell under 200. I’d take it down to 217.
T-Wolves/Nuggets over 237, 1 unit
Denver has been increasing their pace and basing their offense on their young, athletic talent. Jokic facilitates and draws attention and won’t have much issue against the T-Wolves, who are a solid defense but no match for Jokic in command. The T-Wolves run fast and need to explode to overwhelm other teams. Tempo and scoring should be the definition of this matchup.
Pacers TT under 105.5, 2 units
Celtics put the clamps down against a team that’s given up. Remember, the #1 seed is very much alive for Boston – they can’t afford some fluke loss.
Spurs 1H TT over 62, 1.5 units
This line isn’t officially out yet but it should fall somewhere between 60 and 63. I’d take it up to 64. The Spurs, with their pace, need to win, and Portland’s severe lack of resistance, should have their way early. This game could slow down late if there’s too much of a margin.
Lakers -2, 1 unit
It’s ugly but we gotta do it. LeBron and AD back, to make a playoff push, is as ugly and annoying as it gets but – turns out they’re really good basketball players when they’re motivated. LAL fought hard last night against Utah – expect LeBron to carry them to a win and cover.
We have a HUGE show for you today! Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks is back for one last show this season to break down the FINAL 4 and Ron Ace Sports @RonAceSports comes on to discuss some NFL Pythagorean win totals and how they relate to next years predictions. First, Kiev talks about his podcast agenda from here on out through the summer. Next, Kyle Hunter comes on combined with Better Odds Sports Betting to discuss the FINAL 4! We discuss some trends, some information on the venue at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans as well as a complete breakdown of the games from a positional matchup perspective. After that, the guys give out their free plays and talk about the potential sides of the College Basketball Finals on Monday. Next, Ron comes on to get into the NFL from an expected win perspective. What are Pythagorean wins? Why is it used? Which teams have over or under-achieved? Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves! Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsBreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!
Couldn’t go to bed without sending out a message. I’m beyond frustrated with some of the beats we’ve been experiencing. The Nets/Bucks start slower than molasses in the 1st (predictably, they easily drop 63 in the 2nd). Brooklyn had the game won, but Giannis nailed a 3 to send it into OT and the Nets lose. The Clippers led by as much as 16 and controlled the whole game. Not only do they lose, they don’t cover.
I feel like I’m in a movie or parallel universe or something. Either way, don’t forget the things that have happened. I promise – all things regress to the mean. In other words:
The Bulls and Cavs are NOT good
The Clippers are absolutely dangerous
Nets/Bucks still means points – playoffs will mean more defense
The Heat are still a very formidable team
So are the Warriors
Don’t be shocked when the Lakers get feisty again
The Blazers, OKC, and the Wizards don’t care anymore
The Knicks won’t care anymore, either
We know how sharp we are – let’s carry the fuck on. Below are my initial leans for tomorrow. I won’t send out a premium email until after 10am. Gotta take my time and evaluate lines longer than usual tomorrow morning. Until then-
I breakdown the interstate rivalry between the Islanders and the Rangers and offer a few more picks on the night.
New York Islanders @ New York Rangers
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
New York Islanders: 30-27-9, 6th Metropolitan (12-14-5 Away)
New York Rangers: 44-19-5, 2nd Metropolitan (22-6-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
New York Islanders
+118
+145
+1.5 (-170)
o5.5 (-110)
New York Rangers
-142
-175
-1.5 (+150)
u5.5 (-110)
Trends:
Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 overall.
Over is 9-3 in Islanders last 12 road games.
Previous Matchups:
November 24, 2021
NYR (4) @ NYI (1)
NYR -135, NYI +115, O/U 5.5 (+105/-125)
March 17, 2022
NYI (2) @ NYR (1)
NYI +115, NYR -140, O/U 5.5 (+105/-125)
Preview:
New York Islanders
The Islanders have been playing some decent hockey as of late going 6-3-1 in their last 10 games. However, it doesn’t mean much as they’re out of playoff contention. They’re currently 15 points behind the Washington Capitals for the second Wild Card spot.
Offensively, the Islanders have struggled ranking 24th on the year averaging 2.72 Goals For per game. Just like their record, their offense has been better recently averaging 3.00 Goals For per game. New York has struggled to generate offensive opportunities all season and have been generating even less chances in their last 10. Even when they do create scoring chances, they’re aren’t great at capitalizing on them as their Shooting % ranks 21st. One bright spot for the Islanders has been their Powerplay which is converting at a higher rate than their season average.
Brock Nelson leads the team in points with 48 in 56 games played followed up by Matt Barzal who was 44 in 56 and Anders Lee who was 40 in 59. Nelson has been the hot hand and is currently on a six game point streak generating 5 goals and 5 assists during that stretch. Barzal is also on a little point streak himself averaging two points per game in his last two.
The Islanders have been solid defensively all season averaging 2.69 Goals Against per game, ranking 5th. They’ve been slightly below that number in their last 10 averaging 2.60. Despite them ranking well in terms of Goals Against, they do give up a ton of shots on goal and have been worse in their last 10 games. One matchup to watch out for tonight is the Islanders Penalty Kill vs the Rangers Power Play. Both of these teams rank very highly in those respective categories so it should be fun to watch.
Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start but, he is questionable with an upper body injury so we’ll see if he gets the nod. He ranks 14th in the NHL in terms of Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) with a +9.0. If he is unable to go, Semyon Varlamov will get the start in net. He’s struggled this year with a -1.1 GSAx but, has allowed three goals or less in his last three starts. Varlamov did start against the Rangers in their earlier matchup this season where he allowed 4 goals on 21 Shots which is awful.
New York Rangers
The New York Rangers are red hot right now going 8-2 in their last 10 games. They’re currently on a four game winning streak defeating Buffalo, Detroit, and Pittsburgh twice during that stretch. As it stands now, the Rangers are in 2nd place of the Metropolitan division and five points behind the first place Carolina Hurricanes.
Overall, the Rangers have been sub-par offensively ranking 17th in Goals For per game with an average of 3.04. However, they’ve averaged 3.80 Goals For per game in their last 10 led by their top line of Kreider- Zibanejad – Vatrano. Chris Kreider and Frank Vatrano have been especially good as of late along with their leading goal scorer Artemi Panarin. New York’s been able to generate more shots on goal which has led to increased scoring chances. The Rangers have been great at capitalizing on those chances with a Shooting % ranking 7th. That percentage has gone up 3% in their last 10 so with the additional chances, there’s no wonder why they’ve been able to generate more offensive production. I mentioned this before but, New York’s Power Play has been one of the best in the NHL ranking 5th and just like all of their other offensive metrics, has been better as of late.
While the Rangers have found a spark up front, their defense has struggled a bit. In their last 10 they’re averaging 0.21 more goals against which isn’t all that significant but, still noteworthy. Surprisingly, they’ve done a better job of limiting shots on goal which hasn’t had a direct correlation to their goals against. Their Penalty Kill ranks 13th in the NHL although it’s has been significantly worse in their last 10, 14% worse to be specific.
Igor Shesterkin is expected to get the start for the Rangers tonight. He’s been the best goalie in the NHL by far this season and without him this team wouldn’t be where they are in terms of the standings. He ranks 1st in GSAx with an astounding +32.4. Shesterkin has started both games for the Rangers against the Islanders this season.
Pick:
NEW YORK RANGERS IN REGULATION (-110) – DraftKings
When looking at home and away splits, the Rangers are a significantly better team at home. Combine that with the fact that they’ll have Shesterkin in net tonight, I like them a lot here. The Islanders are also one of those teams that’s much better at home. They’re 18-13-4 at home this season compared to 12-14-5 away. Given how well the Rangers have played as of late they should win this one at MSG in regulation.
Other Picks on the Night:
All of these totals will move by the morning so I would suggest playing them now. I know it is a lot of picks but based of the preliminary line movement, NSH/BUF and OTT/DET will likely move to 6.5. EDM/ STL may move to 7 but, I expect it to close around -125/-130 for 6.5.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS/ BUFFALO SABRES OVER 6.0 (-110) – BETMGM
OTTAWA SENATORS/ DETROIT RED WINGS OVER 6.0 (-115) – BETMGM
ST. LOUIS BLUES/ EDMONTON OILERS OVER 6.5 (-115) – POINTSBET
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
1ST PITCH IS IN 7 DAYS!! We dug into the AL Central today and found some value with 2 team totals. The White Sox should win this division again but their team total is right where it should be and the division winner is juiced too much for my liking. I have the 2 teams below that I ended up finding value in their team totals.
Last season we hit MLB at 54% while earning clients over $12,000!! Sign up NOW before you miss out on my MLB Sides Monthly Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers are coming off one of their better seasons in recent years winning 77 games and while they lost a couple pieces to free agency, they made up for it and more by signing star SS Javier Baez, LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, RHP Michael Pineda and trading for their starting catcher, Tucker Bardhart. In year 2 of manager AJ Hinch, the Tigers look to make a playoff run for the first time in a long while. The young pitching staff can only get better with the additions of Rodriguez and Pineda, on and off the field. It is underestimated how important it is to have veterans in the clubhouse that features a very young and promising core. Which is also why I love the additions of Baez and Bardhart. Detroit will be calling up their future 1st baseman and center fielder at some point this season, 1B Spencer Torkelson, who may become the Tigers best hitter the day he arrives and CF Riley Green will help bolster the already talended outfield for Detroit. Barring injuries, there is only one way for this team to go. Take Over their 77.5 team total -110
Minnesota Twins
The Twins are entering 2022 after a disappointing 2021 season as they missed the playoffs by only winning 73 games. A big part of that was due to their starting pitching who ranked 20th in the league in WHIP and 24th in FIP last season while their bullpen gave up 1.33 HR/9 in the second have of the season, which also ranked 24th in the MLB. They really struggled after the all star break and it showed on offense when they dropped from 9th to 20th in wOBA and 7th to 18th in wRC+. First things first, they need Byron Buxton to stay healthy for a change. Other than that, they will need this team to mesh as there are a bunch of new faces and, other than new SS Carlos Correa, its hard to say whether any of the new faces are upgrades. C Gary Sanchez will take over as the starting catcher but will be a big liability on defense while Gio Urshela will take over 3rd base and Sonny Gray to be inserted into the rotation but its fair to say their best days are in the past. I just don’t see how this team has improved by more than 10 games this season. Take Under 83.5 wins -106
Chris and Kate hang out and talk about the Thursday NBA slate, what they’ve learned this year handicapping the NBA, and other sports betting insights! Check it out and subscribe to Laying the Points and the OddsBreakers podcasts!
SALT LAKE CITY, UT - JUNE 10: Jordan Clarkson #00 of the Utah Jazz smiles during the game against the LA Clippers during Round 2, Game 2 of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on June 10, 2021 at vivint.SmartHome Arena in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)
Coming off a 1-1 split last night, I’m back today with 2 more NBA plays. If you’d like to receive a text whenever I release any plays, consider joining my Telegram group: https://t.me/fordhamsportsgambling. You can also follow me on Twitter: @FordhamGambling. Let’s get these 2 winners tonight and take some momentum into the weekend!
*NBA(1u): Bulls -2(-110) vs Clippers–7 PM CT
Paul George is back for the Clippers, and in his first game back, we saw LAC come back from 12 entering the 4Q and beat the Jazz. George is a key piece that instantly makes this Clippers team better, but it’s still only his second game back and first road game since returning. I don’t think PG is at the stage of his career anymore where he can single-handedly carry a team that has an otherwise mediocre roster. Chicago is back at home after a 5 game road trip; in their first game back home off a road trip of 3 games or more, the Bulls are 3-0 SU and ATS this season. They finished their recent road trip winning 2 out of 3, including a gritty 4 point win in Cleveland. Zach LaVine is not 100%, but I like Chicago even if he doesn’t play. Demar DeRozan is an elite scorer, and there are plenty of other talented role players in the Bulls’ backcourt that are chomping at the bit for an opportunity. Chicago’s defense has been a concern this season, but over their last 3 games, the Bulls rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a role Chicago has excelled in this year, and I think the sentiment on this Clippers team is a bit too high early in George’s return. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Clippers start fast, but over the 48 minute game, I like Chicago to pull through.
*NBA(1u): Jazz -13(-110) vs Lakers–9 PM CT
I took a shot with the Lakers as double-digit ‘dogs the other night in their game against the Mavs and was proven wrong almost instantly. This team is garbage(especially with LeBron still out), and this is not the spot where they turn things around. Tonight marks the end of a stretch where the Lakers have had to play 7 of their last 8 games on the road, and they’ll face a Jazz team that has all the motivation in the world to win in large fashion tonight. Utah has lost both of their meetings with the Lakers this season(LeBron played in each) and just blew a double-digit lead on the road against the Clippers. While it’s been a brutal stretch for this team, they still rank 1st in offensive efficiency this season, have a superstar in Donovan Mitchell supplemented by solid veteran pieces, and could welcome back a key piece in Bojan Bogdanovich tonight. The Lakers have a home game tomorrow against the Pelicans(a revenge spot for LAL), so I wouldn’t imagine we get a great effort from them down the stretch of this game, especially when you consider that the effort hasn’t been there even in ideal spots(For context, the Lakers rank 29th in defensive efficiency in their last 3 games; you can’t convince me a lot of that is not driven by effort). I like the Jazz to show out tonight and win this game BIG against a Lakers team that has no pride.
Thursday card has the NBA Eastern Conference Game Of The Year, a 5* NIT Championship Final with 3 Power systems and a Perfect System NHL Side. TBC Tournament Final play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Coastal Carolina in the TBC Tournament Final. The Chanticleers have played the tougher schedule and have covered 8 of 10 as a home dog, 23 of 34 on Thursdays and 15 of 21 as a dog. Fresno has failed to cover 5 of 7 on the road and 9 of 12 on Thursdays.. Both teams are solid on defense and this should be a tight game. Look for the Coastal Carolina to cover and maybe even pull the outright win. On Thursday a powerful card is up and led by the NBA Eastern Conference Game Of the Year, the Triple System N.I.T Tournament Final and a Perfect System NHL System Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the TBC Play. Take the Points with Coastal Carolina. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
One of my best angles and ways that I usually stack up wins is playing on 1Q totals – there are real edges and I haven’t been using them enough. Here’s a few plays I like today:
Bucks/Nets 1Q over 59.5, 1.5 units (I have this at 63)
Sixers/Pistons 1Q under 57.5, 1 unit (I have this at 52)
Clippers +3.5, 1 unit: This isn’t a play that I’d put your mortgages on, but I really, REALLY don’t like this spot for the Bulls. Sometimes the old eye test is the best way to assess a team and fortunately, I was able to watch the Chicago game on a local network against the Wizards Tuesday. Maybe I should say unfortunately; it wasn’t a fun watch. The depleted, pedestrian Wizards were hanging with the Bulls in every facet of the game. Only later in the 3rd and into the 4 quarter did we see the Bulls pull away and cover that line (-3.5), but that’s nothing impressive. Washington probably isn’t interested in winning outright, they’re too many games back from making the playoffs, and they clearly minimized their efforts late in that contest. The Clippers will do no such thing tonight.
We were told Paul George would have a “minutes-restriction” when he returned Tuesday, but ultimately that wasn’t the case. George ended up playing 31 minutes and gave a fantastic effort, putting up 34 points and 6 assists, including a 6-9 mark from 3-point land. George isn’t just a significant upgrade on offense; he’s a difference maker on defense, too. One of the better overall defenders in NBA history, George can lock-down any opponent and he showed that Tuesday, immediately bringing intensity and viability to a defense that hasn’t looked the same without him. The Clippers were starting Amir Coffey in his spot, forcing Luke Kennard and others to step out of their roles and contribute more for a squad that already suffered from less efficiency and production on both ends of the floor. Coffey brings a nice perimeter shooting component, but lacks in pretty much every other category. Needless to say, Paul George is a huge upgrade for the Clippers, who are now a dangerous team heading into the postseason. That’s exceedingly true if Kawhi returns, too.
The Bulls have lacked the emotion and scrappy blue collar intensity that we loved at the start of the season. They clearly miss Lonzo Ball, who obviously must’ve been crucial to their spacing and chemistry on offense, and their defense hasn’t looked the same since the start of 2022. They looked lost for the majority of Tuesday’s game against the Wizards and they were lucky to ultimately win. LAC is off a big conference victory and I expect that momentum to leak into tonight’s matchup. I’ll take the road dog Clippers and I think it would be wise to keep an eye on LAC as we near the postseason.
