Good overall night (4-3) Wednesday, although Jesus H. you know what, we can’t seem to get the good bounces we need to have a BIG night. Fortunately I like today’s card, too.
NBA Picks:
Nets -1.5, 1.5 units
Bad spot for the Bucks, much better opportunity for the Nets, who need to keep winning and winning. Brooklyn didn’t look very sharp in their last contest but whatever – this is a team that can LAY the hammer any time and eventually I expect to see much better defense out of them. Durant isn’t afraid of Giannis and he’s bested him plenty of times before. I think the Nets take this one – Milwaukee has a B2B tomorrow, too.
Pistons/76ers under 223, 1 unit
I have this at 218 and would take it down to 221, though I haven’t seen much movement yet. Both of these teams play slower, the Pistons have looked excellent on defense, Philly is due for a better defensive game, and the Pistons will likely give up in the 2nd half.
Cavs/Hawks over 220.5, 2 units
Hope you all snagged this last night but I would still take it up to 223. This line is too low. The Cavs have to play at a faster pace because of their lack of bigs (Allen and Mobley) and the Hawks should be able to score at will on the perimeter and in the front court. All over for me.
Clippers +3.5, 1.5 units
This is not a good matchup for the Bulls. Watching them win and barely cover against the Wizards only makes me like this bet more. They start off slow, they look confused, and their stars have been inconsistent. The Clippers got a big time uptick in momentum after that huge win against Utah and the return of Paul George. I think that carries over into this contest. The Clippers are pests on defense, physical on offense, and far better coached.
TIP: Consider a Durant prop – he’s due to go off in a big showdown game.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
1ST PITCH IS IN 8 DAYS!! We will start with the best division in baseball. The AL East. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays will all be looking to have their name at the top of the division by seasons end. I believe the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays futures numbers are right where they should be, so I have focused on the value plays below that I also have played personally and sent out to premium clients.
Sign up NOW before you miss out on my MLB Sides Monthly Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are coming off a 52 win season last year and the rest of the AL East has arguably gotten better. Their Ace, LHP John Means, ended a solid season with a 1.03 WHIP and a 3.62 ERA but also owned a .240 BABIP and 4.62 FIP, signs that he was fortunate to have the numbers that he did. After Means, there are a bunch of question marks in the rotation. Baltimore also has done nothing to improve their bullpen, one that finished 31st in WHIP and xFIP. They even lost some of their relievers. The offense will be the strength of this team, highlighted by DH Trey Mancini, 1B Ryan Mountcastle and CF Cedric Mullins. The O’s also brought in 2B Rougned Odor and will have their top prospect C Adley Rutchman enter the league this season. Baltimore is banking on their farm system to make them better, as they should, this season but that will be a tall task in the best division in baseball with 4 potential playoff teams in front of them. I am expecting the offense to take a step forward but the pitching is going to struggle again in this division. Look for the O’s to have a similar season as last year and maybe 5 wins better but well takeUnder 62.5 -115 for their win total this season in the gauntlet of the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays enter the 2022 season after winning the AL East with 100 wins a year ago and have lost DH Nelson Cruz (who didn’t perform up to expectations after trading for him at the deadline), SP Michael Wacha and RP Collin McHugh. However, the additions of former Cy Young winner, Corey Kluber, and RP Brooks Raley will offset their losses and, in my opinion, make them even better. The addition of Kluber is huge, even if he doesn’t throw a pitch this season. His experience alone is a great addition to the clubhouse with a plethora of young pitchers looking for a brain to pick after a postseason without a veteran, i.e. Charlie Morton, which clearly hurt them and sent them home early. We’re talking about a starting rotation who finished in the top 10 in WHIP and FIP with 4 rookie pitchers. The bullpen was even better, finishing in the top 5 in almost every major stat, including WHIP and xFIP. It is also worth mentioning that Tampa’s arms were hit hard with injuries last season and will have more depth this season getting most of those guys back. Their offense isn’t flooded with a bunch of big name guys but finished the season by scoring the 2nd most runs in the MLB and owning the 10th best wOBA in the league. With 2 stars in the making, LF Randy Arozarena and SS Wander Franco, leading off the lineup and everyone returning from last years lineup while the talent from one of the best farm systems will continue to see prospects emerge into the clubhouse this season, such as INF Taylor Walls and INF/OF Vidal Brujan, look for the Rays to have a similar season as they did last season. I am not saying they should win the division, but they very well could again and they are very underpriced in the market. Take Rays Over 89.5 -110 for their win total and to win the AL East +320.
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This is going to be a LOADED card, 7 total plays and a prop, but we embrace exposure when we see value. Here are two more looks:
CJ McCollum props:
These aren’t officially OUT yet at most books, but I’d take his point props over 25 and PAR props over 35 – big spot for him against his former team.
Mavericks -3, 1.5 units
I don’t see how Cleveland can last against a Mavericks team that’s been low-key one of the hotter squads in the association since the All-Star break. The injuries to Allen and Mobley create a soft front court and more pressure on the Cavs’ backcourt– that’s bad news for their chances on both offense and defense against a talented Dallas group. I think Dallas covers and the Cavs continue their descent.
DENVER, CO - JULY 16: Colorado Rockies mascot Dinger performs before a game between the Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field on July 16, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
Baseball season has arrived. The Owners and players have an agreement, and the spring training position battles and injuries have gotten under way. I will be previewing all six divisions from a betting perspective and will give out all the futures plays for free. Last year our MLB Bets went 362-317-23 with over a 7% ROI. You can get all my premium MLB picks all season long available here https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-levels/
I’ll then do a brief article about how I see the playoffs going and where there is value in pennant and World Series odds. If you remember we picked the Super Bowl winner in the Rams in our NFL preview articles and I plan on doing it again here for MLB.
NL CENTRAL
Betting – Odds to win Division and Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
Los Angeles Dodgers -250/ 97.5
San Diego Padres +325/ 88.5
San Francisco Giants +500/ 84.5
Colorado Rockies +3500/ 68.5
Arizona Diamondbacks +4500/ 66.5
Los Angeles Dodgers – They Dodgers lost some key off-season pieces, but in true Dodger fashion for the last decade or so they re-tooled the roster through free agency. Gone are Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen and Corey Seagar. They did however bring in the biggest free agent on the market in former MVP Freddie Freeman. While they are still the favorite in this division this is likely as vulnerable as they have been in years to start the season. They have the best lineup in baseball with Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freeman at the top. Follow that up with Max Muncy, Will Smith, Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, and some fill-ins and there aren’t many easy outs. The pitching staff has a couple aces in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias at the top, and they brought back Clayton Kershaw, but he is a shell of his former dominance. The back end of the rotation is a question mark. The bullpen has Blake Treinen who can be dominant, but most of the rest of the group is underwhelming. I could see this team struggle in close games late. Prediction 98-64
San Diego Padres – The Padres put together a dynamic roster leading into 2021 to compete with the Dodgers and delivered one of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory. They went 12-34 down the stretch and missed the playoffs. That has led to a manager change as veteran Bob Melvin has been brought in to right the ship. Melvin has down much more with less than this roster showcases, so I anticipate this team to improve. That being said they were bit by the injury bug right away in Spring Training as their all world shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. went down with a wrist injury that will sideline him for at least 3 months and likely affect him all season. They still have some other boppers in the lineup with Manny Machado and the added Luke Voit. They also have a few solid table setters in Trent Grisham and Jake Cronenworth. The rotation really let them down last year as Joe Musgrove was the only one who preformed to expected levels. If Yu Darvish and Blake Snell can get their issues figured out and Mike Clevinger comes back from injury at the same level before he was hurt they will have a really dangerous 1-4 in the rotation. The bullpen has some good pieces in Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan, but roles are still up in the air, and this unit could struggle. Prediction 90-72
San Francisco Giants – The overachievers of 2021 were the Giants. I made more money betting on them than any other team in any sport over the course of the year. They lost in the NLDS in 5 games to the Dodgers ending their magical season. Now they have to replace the heart of the team as Buster Posey has retired. They also have to find an answer to losing Kevin Gausman in Free agency as he was the ace of the staff. They also have to find a way to replicate many career seasons, most of which came from veteran players. Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria and Darin Ruf will have to continue their hitting trends, and they also have to keep their aging bodies on the field. So, do I see them winning 107 games again? Absolutley not. This lineup is old, and losing Posey is big in regards to handling the pitching staff as well. The starters should still be the strength of the team with Logan Webb as the anchor. They brought in Carlos Rodon who looked like he turned the corner last year, and Alex Cobb. The bullpen should be a strength with three solid arms at the back of games with Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Jake McGee. Prediction 85-77
Colorado Rockies – After having a nice run for a few years and competing with LA in the division the Rockies have now had three straight losing seasons. Gone are Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story from those winning squads, but the Rockies have brought in some key players and have had winning seasons before without much of a pitching staff and a top heavy lineup. Coors Field can be a great equalizer. Kris Bryant in Coors is going to be fun, and they have some other boppers with CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon and Brandon Rodgers. Charlie Blackmon will look to bounce back after a down year at the plate. The staff is not good with German Marquez being the only above average arm there, and the bullpen improved by signing Alex Colome, but is also below average. This team shouldn’t compete for the division, but they seem to find a way most years to be better than expected. Prediction 74-88
Arizona Diamondbacks – They were awful last year as they won only 52 games. They are certainly still in rebuilding mode, but should be better than last years version. The lineup features Ketel Marte one of the best pure swings in baseball, and exciting young player Daulton Varsho. The rest of the lineup checks in below average so they won’t be outhitting other teams to victories. They have Zac Gallen in the rotation and he continues to impress. Madison Bumgarner is past his prime. The rest of the rotation is a question mark. They have some veteran pieces in the bullpen in Mark Melancon and Ian Kennedy, but both of them will likely be traded by the end of July. Don’t see much from the snakes this year. Prediction 68-94
My Free plays on the NL West are as follows:
Not much value in this division for me I think Colorado can hit themselves into some victories with the lineup they have.
Colorado Rockies over 68.5 wins – 1.5 Units
Colorado Rockies to make playoffs +1000 – .25 Units.
What’s up good people! Sorry this is coming a little tardy, first day driving into the ol’ 9-5 in 2 years and let me tell ya, it was glorious. Two near-death experiences on a bridge, coffee spilled accordingly, your typical DC-area traffic– oh how I missed it (eye roll x 100). Here’s an overview of today’s picks, below. I figured some of you didn’t get the best lines available so we’ll middle some of these so it’s fair and clear for everyone.
NBA Picks:
Hawks -12
1 unit, I’d take it up to -13. The Thunder are very clearly giving up on the season, Atlanta’s offense will be way too overwhelming for them, and ATL needs to stay in the 10th spot to get into the playoffs.
Pelicans -12.5
1 unit, I’d take it up to -13.5. Similar story to the above, and now Brandon Ingram is back for the Pels. New Orleans should light them up.
Timberwolves +3
1.5 units, I’d take it to ML. I think Minnesota wins outright. Toronto is a really tough team and a squad I really like, but this is a nice redemption spot for the T-Wolves after dropping that game against Boston.
Celtics -4, 1.5 units
I’d take this up to -5.5. The Celtics will miss Robert Williams but if there’s anything we’ve learned about this team over the last few months, it’s that they’re resilient and they all put in equally exceptional work-ethic. That’s the sign of great coaching, a great team, and it’s a big-time challenge for Miami. I’m not sure the Heat are completely over their funk b/c of one win against the lousy Kings.
Nuggets/Pacers over 232, 1 unit
I’d take this up to 233. Have you seen what the Pacers are allowing on offense lately? 132, 131, 133, 110 in their last 4 games. Denver is happy to run fast these days and their defense isn’t as solid. I can only go over here.
Grizzlies/Spurs over 232.5, 1.5 units
I’d take this up to 234. Two fast-paced teams and this Grizzlies unit, especially without Ja Morant, have looked SENSATIONAL on offense. Spurs are now in the 10th spot and want to keep winning for a shot in the playoffs. Lots of attacking the rim, lots of offense in this one.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
We have a new world number 1 as Scottie Scheffler wins the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play defeating Kevin Kisner. Scheffler has now won three of his last five starts after going winless in his first 72 starts. He is absolutely lights out right now just playing some incredible golf. He’s not in this weeks event as he takes a deserved rest before the Masters next week. We we’re pretty solid this week gaining 1.7 units which brings our total to +24.52 Units in the last eight weeks.
This week we finish off the “Texas Swing” with the Valero Texas Open. This is mainly a prep tournament before the Masters next week. UT grad and Texas native Jordan Spieth won this event last year shooting 18 under par. It’s not a great field as most of the worlds best players will rest since this isn’t a major tournament. However, this tournament does mean a lot to a ton of players as this is the last event to qualify for the Masters.
Three of the past four winners captured their first win on the PGA Tour so we’re going with a large card with some bigger odds. Let’s get into the Valero Texas Open and breakdown this interesting field.
Tournament Information:
Dates: March 31st, 2022- April 3rd, 2022
Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
Course: TPC San Antonio – Oaks Course
Course Type: Texas/Southwest
Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,438 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
The Valero Texas Open, also known as the Texas Open dates back over 100 years, founded in 1922. This event is the sixth oldest professional golf tournament worldwide and the third oldest on the PGA Tour.
This event has always been held in the San Antonio area. The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio became the host course for this tournament in 2010 replacing La Cantera Golf Club which hosted the event from 1995 to 2009. TPC San Antonio has two courses on the property with The Canyons course being the other. In total, this event has been hosted by eight different courses.
The Valero Energy Foundation took over the naming rights in 2002 and has retained the rights ever since. Prior to the Valero Energy Foundation, Westin was the sponsor of this event.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Oaks course at TPC San Antonio ranks 22nd on Tour in terms of distance playing over 7,400 yards in length. Two of the past three renditions of this event have had a stroke average over par so, it is a bit challenging.
Driving Distance off the tee is obviously helpful this week given the length but, driving accuracy is not all that important. This course has some of the least penal rough on Tour so it’s not something to be particularly warry of this week. However, that being said most of the fairways are tree lined so if you really do shank one of the tee you can get yourself in some trouble.
The green size is above Tour average ranking in the top half of courses. The greens are champion bermudagrass overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis. Looking at the stimpmeter, these are some slower greens but as we’ve seen from past winners, solid putting is a must this week.
The main defense of the course is usually the winds but given the forecast I don’t think they’ll play a major role so we should see another low winning score.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Stroked Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Driving Distance
Par 4 Scoring: 400-450, 450-500
Scrambling
The Field/ Odds:
Rory McIlroy is the favorite for this weeks event going off around 7/8-1 this week on most major books. He didn’t play the past two weeks so he’ll be well rested coming into the Valero. His last appearance at the Valero Texas Open was back in 2013 where he finished 2nd.
Last years winner and Texas native, Jordan Spieth is next in line in terms of odds around 14-1. Spieth struggled last week not making it out of the group stage last week in the WGC Match play event. Prior to that event, he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS so he’s not coming into this tournament in great form. That being said, Jordan has had success here before in addition to his win, finishing 2nd in 2015 and 10th in 2014.
Corey Conners is the third favorite this week with 18-1 odds on most major books. He won this event back in 2019 and finished 14th here at TPC San Antonio in 2021. Conners’ enters this tournament in great form finishing 3rd at THE PLAYERS.
Hideki Matsuyama is next up in terms of odds going off at 20-1. Matsuyama finished 30th at TPC San Antonio last year in his tournament debut. He hasn’t played since the Arnold Palmer Invitation where he finished T20 so we’ll see if he can return to form. Matsuyama does have a win this year back at the ZOZO Championship which was held in his native country Japan.
Rounding out the favorites this week is everyone’s favorite golfer, Bryson Dechambeau. Bryson’s listed at 22-1 on most books and hasn’t played in this event since 2017. In his two appearances at this event, he’s missed the cut both times. Last week Bryson struggled at Austin Country Club so we’ll see how he fares heading into the Masters.
A very popular play this week will be Charley Hoffman who has had a ton of success here. Starting with 2021 these have been his finishing positions; 2-2-64-40-1-11-11-3-13-2. However, he has missed the cut in his past two events so we’ll see if he can stay hot at his favorite course.
Other previous winners in the field include; Andrew Landry (’18), Kevin Chappell (’17), Charley Hoffman (’16), Jimmy Walker (’15), Martin Laird (’13), Brendan Steele (’11), and Zach Johnson (’09,’08).
To see the most up to date odds, you can click the following link.
To find out how everyone in the field has qualified, you can click the following link.
2020: Cancelled after the first round due to the COVID-19 pandemic
Price: N/A
2019: Corey Conners (-20)
Price: 200-1
2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
Price: 200-1
2017: Kevin Chappell (-12)
Price: 33-1
Picks (Outright) – I told you I was going with a big card this week:
Given that it’s a larger card, I just don’t have the time to do a full write up on every guy. It’s the week before the Master’s I took a flyer on a bunch (nine to be exact) of guys to capture their first win here. I mentioned this before that three of the past four winners have been first time PGA Tour winners. My strategy here was to look at the historical strokes gained data and take some of the top guys in that category so we’ll see how it pans out. I’m not risking a lot this week so I can place allocate some more funds next week given the volatility of this event.
Maverick McNealy (+3500) – DraftKings
Risk 0.23 to win 8.05 Units
Doug Ghim (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Denny McCarthy (+8000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Matthew NeSmith (+10000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.08 to win 8.00 Units
Beau Hossler (+12500) – Caesars
Risk 0.07 to win 8.75 Units
Wyndham Clark (+16000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.05 to win 8.00 Units
Hank Lebioda (+20000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.04 to win 8.00 Units
Joseph Bramlett (+21000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.04 to win 8.40 Units
Trey Mullinax (+32000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.03 to win 9.60 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.74 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Gary Woodland (+175) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Gary Woodland finished 6th at the Valero Texas Open last year. He’s took the last few weeks off but finished 21st at the Valspar in his last tournament. Prior to that he missed the cut at THE PLAYERS but had back to back 5th place finishes at the API and Honda Classic. Woodland ranks 44th in SG: APP, 44th in SG: Putting, and 45th in SG: T2G. He’s also one of the longest players on Tour off the tee which should provide an additional advantage.
Adam Hadwin (+175) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Adam Hadwin has back to back top 10 finishes at the Valspar Championship and THE PLAYERS. Last year he finished 23rd at this event. Hadwin is one of the best players on Tour in terms of approach ranking 25th in SG: APP. He also ranks well in SG:ATG, SG:Putting, and SG:T2G. Additionally, Hadwin is one of the best players in terms of Par 4 Scoring Average ranking 31st.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Kevin Streelman (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 1.00 to win 1.00 Units
Kevin Streelman has had some success here in the past finishing 6th in 2019 and 8th in 2018. He enters this tournament in great form finishing 7th at the Valspar and 22nd at THE PLAYERS. Streelman has been solid this year ranking 47th SG:OTT, 54th in SG:ATG, and 66th in SG:T2G. In terms of Par 4 Scoring he ranks 66th which is a great especially for this event. In his last four events, he has finished in the Top 40 three of four and in his last six appearances at the Valero Texas Open he’s finished inside the Top 40 five of six. This is also a value play as most other books have him around -110/-115.
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the Valero Texas Open: 3.74 Units
SG Data at the Valero Texas Open since 2016: Source
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
On this weeks episode of Expected Bets For we have Matt, aka @TopCheddarPicks and Ray, aka @FirefighterBets on Twitter to help breakdown Wednesday March 30th’s NHL slate. Matt will now be the weekly co-host of the podcast so I’m incredibly thankful to have his insight on the NHL market every week.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically what to look at when interpreting NHL player props.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
NHL News/ Notes
Hot/ Cold Teams
Injury News
Playoff Predictions
Betting Strategies
Player Props
Recent NHL Trends
You can follow Matt on Twitter @TopCheddarPicks and Ray on Twitter @FirefighterBets.
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
