Monday card has our N.L. West Division Total Of The Month and a 5* NHL Totals. Monday Soccer Play below.
The French Ligue Soccer Play is on Paris FX at 2:245 eastern. Paris bagged a win in the last meeting holding on to a 1-0 road win caused by a Dijon own goal. Now they get Dijon at home where they have kept a clean sheet in 6 of the last 9 matches. Dijon will once again find it tough to break through as they have netted just 3 goals in their last 5 away matches. Paris is 4th in the table but needs this win, while Dijon is 12th and has very little chance to make it to the playoffs. Look for Paris to win. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports,
What’s up team! HELL of a finish to our NBA regular season! 2-0 Sunday, 4-0 weekend, and hitting at a solid 56% for +73 units overall. We hit at 58% last season, giving us a career NBA record of 57%. Below are our first playoff bet and a series wager to boot.
Clearly my MLB bets have some work but it’s the start of the season, no reason to panic. I’ve also been abundantly clear – although I have solid ROI and a winning record in MLB, it isn’t my specialty. Then again, our previous record and ROI have matched those who call MLB their expertise, so there’s that. Bottom line – we’ll evolve together and eventually the wins will start piling on. I’ll aim for the genesis of that today.
NBA:
Bulls/Bucks: Bucks win series in 4 games (+380 at DK),
If there’s any series I’m confident about, it’s this one. It’s well documented by now – the Bulls just can’t beat exceptional teams. They’ve been horrendous since the All Star break, on both offense and defense, and they’re banged up heading into the postseason. Meanwhile the Bucks, in my opinion, are the best team in the East and my favorite to win the title again (+500, another bet I took). Winning 4 straight games sounds like a leap for any team in the playoffs, but thankfully you only play 1 game at a time. The Bucks will have massive advantages in every contest and unless the Bulls go on some wildly lucky shooting streak, Giannis and a lock-down Bucks defense should comfortably win every game. We’re hitting this number on the champs earning a 4-0 series sweep in round 1.
Cavs/Nets under 229.5, 1.5 units
We’ve talked at length about totals in the NBA playoffs and how they decrease. Not only do totals decrease, but so does tempo. The only chance CLE has to stay in this contest is to slow it down and play their brand of basketball. Their defense has sharpened over the last week or so, looking more like the unit we saw earlier in the season, and the Nets have certainly shown a new gear on defense, too. This line is right, it has to be higher because of Brooklyn’s potential on offense, but if the Cavs can slow this game down even a tiny bit, this will fall way below 230. If it starts off fast, look to live bet the under when it inflates. The action will almost certainly slow down in the 4th.
MLB:
Brewers -1.5 (+105), 1 unit
Milwaukee was one of the best run line teams in the MLB last season; Baltimore was one of the worst. Historically the Orioles have struggled with Zimmerman on the mound, while the Brewers have thrived with Houser. It’ll be a beautiful day in Baltimore (I should know) and a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to rediscover their bats. Milwaukee is an NL favorite for a reason – I think they take care of business in a big way today.
Blue Jays First 5 -0.5 (+115), 1 unit
James Taillon was a solid enough pitcher for NYY last season (4.3 ERA, 4.43 FIP), but he also has a proclivity to allow too many homeruns (1.50/9 innings last season). Alex Manoah is an up-and-coming young gun who showed signs of brilliance in 2021. He also has a good history against the Yankees. The 6’6″ former 1st round pick is in a big spot, but we think he can handle it. Toronto’s big bats can have their way with Taillon, too. First 5 goes to the Jays.
Mariners (+105), 1 unit
Ask me how much I trust Dylan Bundy, go ahead ask me. Answer: I might be more confident putting a broom out there instead. Alright, he’s not that shitty, but he’s pretty shitty. Not a pitcher we can count on, the Twins hope to win this matchup with their bats but I don’t trust it. Chris Flexen has been a solid performer for Seattle and the Mariners have shown why they’re one of the more exciting teams in MLB already. Equipped with a lot of young talent, this is going to be a feisty squad all year. I’ll take a shot at Seattle getting a road win.
I realize the play-in lines are out, but right now we’re waiting. I’m leaning towards pretty much every underdog and I think every one of these lines will move in a direction that gives us more value. Remember a few things heading into the postseason:
These are not normal contests. You win, or you go the hell home; it’s the playoffs. So we’re about to see the MOST effort and the BEST version of these squads. Ergo, underdogs innately have more value.
Playoff lines don’t move nearly as much as during the regular season. Let’s not overreact when they come out.
Remember, defense is coming! Look out for inflated totals.
I may completely switch all of my sides, so don’t take this as me telling you to bet it, but gut instinct, these are my initial leans:
Solid Sunday card has our Final Game Play of The Year in the NBA 6-2 last 8 years, the NHL Platinum Supreme, 2 Powerful MLB Plays including the A.L. East Game Of The Month on ESPN Tonight. Comp Play below
The Sunday MLB Comp totals play is on the Over in the NY. Mets at Washington game at 1:35 eastern. This game fits a solid 80% over system for game 4 of the season that pertains to home teams that are off a home loss and had 4 or less hits vs an opponent off a win and scored 5 or more runs. Fedde for the Nationals had pitched over in his last 6 starts and his last 3 vs the Mets who have hit him hard in the past. Carrasco goes for the Mets who have taken the first 3 of this series, its hard to know what he can bring since he was hit hard at time last year and has not pitched that much in the spring. Look for a higher scoring game that flys over the total. On Sunday a Huge card is up led by the Final Game Play of the year in NBA, an NHL Platinum Supreme, 2 big MLB Plays including the A.L. East Game of the Month with a Perfect Game 3 system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on ans we Continue to cash. For the MLB Comp play. Look for the Nationals and Mets to play Over the total. Rob V-Golden Contender Sports.
What’s up team! Taking my time today since obviously it’s a HUGE NBA slate, every team is competing, but it’s tough to discern the level of motivation we’ll see. It’s also tough to know what to expect from those lower level teams who are playing their final game today – do they show out to try and end the season strong? Maybe.
We’re at 56% officially on the season so needless to say, I’m not overly anxious to pull the trigger on too many plays today. I’ll provide thoughts on a few games, even if they’re not all official picks. Happy Sunday!
NBA Picks:
Nets 1Q -5.5, 1 unit and
Nets 1H -9.5, 1 unit
Brooklyn’s players made it clear that they want to finish the season strong, in rhythm, to solidify their confidence and standings heading into the postseason. The pace of this game should be through the roof, and the Nets’ talent disparity is massive here. I lean the Nets for the full game too but earlier has been better these days. This is worth a play on Brooklyn in the 1Q and 1H.
Lean, MEM/BOS over 227
As long as everyone’s playing, and it looks like they are, this game should coast over. I realize Boston’s defense is amazing but their offense has been equally exceptional. The Grizzlies’ pace should blow up this total.
Lean, Raptors/Knicks under 220
Well this game feels sleepy. Not playing it, but NYK will probably want to end the season strong on D and if both teams try, there’s gonna be a ton of front court battling.
Lean, Suns -50000
Looks like the Suns are rolling out everyone and if they do, it’s SMASH city. I’d bet on them live early if it looks like they’re playing at full steam. I can’t assume they will beforehand.
I’m off to a 4-0-1, +4.23u start through 2 days of the MLB season! Today, I’ve got 3 plus-money plays looking to keep the good times rollin’. If you’d like to receive a text when I release any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Giants -1.5(+145) vs Marlins–3:05 PM CT
Carlos Rodon is coming off an All-Star season and will make his Giants debut in a DREAM matchup. The Marlins ranked just 29th in OPS against lefties last season and shouldn’t be expected to drastically improve in that department this season. Marlins SP Pablo Lopez has good numbers to this point in his career, but much like yesterday’s starter Sandy Alcantara, Lopez benefits from pitching in a graveyard in Marlins Park. On the road last season, we saw Lopez’s ERA jump up to 4.34, his WHIP jump to 1.23, and his HR/9 climb above 1.0. The Giants love to stack lefties, and with the wind blowing out 11 mph into the bay, I think they’re suited to take advantage. I know we saw the Marlins force extra innings yesterday, but I still give the Giants the edge in the bullpen. This price at +145 is way too good for me to pass up; I think the path is clear for a comfortable Giants victory today.
*MLB(1u): Reds F5 ML(+145) @ Braves–6:20 PM CT
For reasons that are beyond me, Kyle Wright will take the ball for Atlanta today. Through 4 seasons, the righty holds a 6.56 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. He has shown no signs of improvement at the big league level, and I’m not going to expect things to turn around against this Reds lineup. I know Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos were large losses for the Reds, but this lineup seems destined for another productive season. The Reds have scored 6 runs in each game, giving the Braves all they can handle; I’m not expecting that to change facing a guy who has no business being in the big leagues. Reds SP Vladamir Gutierrez’s rookie numbers don’t pop out, but you have to consider his home ballpark is one of the toughest for pitchers in the league. On the road last season, we saw his ERA drop to 3.80 and his HR/9 plummet to just 1/9 innings. In 2 starts against the Braves last season, he went 6 innings and recorded a quality start(3 ER or less) in each. There’s no way I’d bet the Reds over the full game given their bullpen struggles, but I like them at this price when you isolate the SP’s.
If you read yesterday’s article, you’ll know that I’m not too high on this A’s lineup; that remains true. However, I think we’re getting some value on the underdog early in this game. Phillies SP Kyle Gibson erupted out of nowhere and was putting up Cy Young numbers last year in Texas, but I believe a lot of that was aided by the ballpark he was pitching in. We saw him plummet back down to Earth down the stretch last season when he was traded to Philly, and it’s worth noting that he has a 4.45 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 9 major league seasons. The A’s actually put together some good swings later in yesterday’s game and ended up totaling 5 runs, so it’s not wild to think they could carry that momentum into today. Athletics SP Cole Irvin is a soft throwing lefty that is going to limit walks and pitch to contact. While the Phillies lineup came out hot yesterday, we’ve yet to see how they react to soft-throwing lefties who can spot up. Again, I don’t want to throw a full unit on this because the Phillies can erupt at anytime, but I still think Gibson is being overvalued after a fluky start to last season. I’ll put 0.65u on this to win that full unit.
This is going to be the best fight of the card with the best story behind it. Aljamain Sterling has the belt and is the Bamtam weight champion, but unless you are a casual fan, you know that he in a sense stole the belt from Yan by staying down after an illegal knee. Yan is coming back to this fight with a vengeance and he is a proper -450 favorite being that he is the better all around fighter. Let’s get creative here. Yan would have won that 5 round fight inside the distance last time without the illegal knee. I think that he does it this time at +130
Yan ITD +130 – 2 stars
Parlay – Julio Arce -180 with Khamzat Chimaev -490 -115 – 1 star
Big Saturday card has an MLB Executive Level TIER 1, The NBA Top Rated 6*, the NHL Game of the Month an More. Comp play below.
The MLB Comp is on Milwaukee at 2:20 eastern. This game fits an early season System Play that pertains to Game 2 Division home dogs off a home dog win vs an opponent off a road favored loss that scored 4 or less runs. As seen below teams are 0-7. The Cubs even with the win yesterday have dropped 19 of 27 vs Milwaukee and 22 of 28 as a home dog. They have J. Steele going and hes a back of the rotation guy they trying to stretch out. They have lost 4 of 5 at home in games he has appeared n. Milwaukee has Woodruff going and he has won 4 straight Road April starts and the last 4 here in Chicago. Look for Milwaukee to get the win. On Saturday we have an Executive LEVEL TIER 1 in MLB, a rare 6* in the NBA from a 100% Game 81 specific system and the NHL Game of the Month along with Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on and Cash out. MLB off to a 3-0 start. For the MLB Comp play,. Make it Milwaukee. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
I think the Clippers will eclipse 61.5 in the first half, but I’m off that bet. Fucking sportsbooks are trying to bait us and I’m not taking it. Just a lean for now.
Adding Warriors -5.5, 1.5 units
Poetl, Vassell, Murray, and all the major contributors for San Antonio are OUT tonight. Why would they care, anyway? They’re locked into the 9/10th seed play-in tournament so they might as well rest their best players. The Warriors are still at risk of losing the #3 spot and they still need more reps and experience for their young players without Steph. Klay is out tonight but I think that might be a good thing – Poole and Wiggns and Porter Jr. running the floor will mean fast pace action and probably more rhythm – I don’t think Klay’s been right since returning. Swallowing the points with GS.
Shitty, bad beat night. Let’s make up for it Saturday. This is my entire card; I’ve been capping throughout the night. If anything changes I’ll email but I doubt it will. As a reminder, my MLB analysis will be more thorough and featured when NBA ends.
Enjoy your Saturday, everyone!
NBA Picks:
Pacers/76ers over 234, 1.5 units
> > > The Sixers don’t play defense when they don’t care about a game. They kinda care about this one, kinda don’t. They’re locked into the #4 spot, in all reality. The Pacers have the worst defense in the NBA right now but they love to score and run with tempo. This line will increase, take it now.
Clippers 1H over 60 or less, 1 unit
> > > You see who the Clippers are facing? Cool me too. LAC has been routinely putting up 60 in the first and they’re absolutely in a “get in reps” mode with their offense now that PG is back. Sacramento is a good team to practice against. Clippers soar in the 1H, and you should get a better number than 60.
MLB Picks:
Brewers -1.5, 1 unit
Blue Jays -1.5, 1 unit
CLE /KC under 8.5, 1.5 units
Dodgers -1.5 , 1 unit
UFC Picks:
Mike Malott (-195), 1.95 units to win 1 unit
Gall has been on a downward trend and Mallott is a hungry, girthy fighter who should have the takedown advantage. Malott pushes Gall around for the win.
Aspen Ladd (+160), 1 unit to win 1.6 units
Grappling advantage to Ladd and she NEEDS this win
J. Rozenstruik/M. Tybura under 1.5 rounds (+115), 1 unit to win 1.15 units
This fight was cancelled.
Madsen/Pichel goes the distance (-170), 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Two evenly matched fighters ascending in their class– this should be a highly technical battle with both fighters approaching cautiously
Petr Yan by KO, TKO, or DQ (+150), 2 units to win 3 units
Yan will be out for blood in this contest. He was DOMINANT in the last fight against Sterling– unhittable, a gas tank that doesn’t empty, and he was smashing Sterling at will. Unless Sterling makes a huge leap in his game, Yan should dominate and win in convincing fashion again before the final bell.
