What’s up people! I’ll check in and provide more thoughts for these picks later today if there’s a lot of questions- on the final leg of a short vacay and again on borrowed time this morning. Here are the plays I like today:
NBA Picks:
Nuggets -3.5, 1.5 units
This is a really awkward spot for the Hornets and Denver lost the first match.
Raptors -4, 1.5 units
Tatum implied he’s sitting, Williams is out, and this feels like a mail-it-in-game for Boston.
Raptors/Celtics under 216, 1 unit
If we think Toronto wins, it’s because they inhibit the Boston offense in the paint and slow this down even more.
Heat TT over 115, 1 unit
Good chance for the Heat offense to get in a productive game.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Coming off a 2-0 night where I cashed the Houston/Villanova 1H UNDER as well as Duke 1H, I’m back at it today with 2 more plays. See each of those below, and let’s finish off the week strong!
*CBB(1u): Miami +5.5(-110) vs Kansas–1:20 PM CT
I have liked Miami all season because they get great play from their guards and can score in a variety of ways, but I was concerned how their defense would hold up in this Tournament. Well, all they have done is allow just 61 PPG through their 3 Tournament games and force over 16 turnovers/game. Kansas will be their toughest test yet, but the Jayhawks are beatable. Kansas’ leading scorer Ochai Agbaji has been extremely inconsistent this Tournament(shooting just 33% from the field). While Remy Martin has picked up the slack, I’m not sure how sustainable that is given Martin wasn’t relied upon as heavily leading up to the Tournament. Kansas’ defense is vulnerable as well. They were very unimpressive in their Round of 32 matchup against Creighton, who was down 2 key scorers and yet still managed to put up 72. Miami is definitely Kansas’s toughest test as well given their aforementioned guard play, current defensive form, as well as the fact that the Hurricanes take care of the basketball at one of the highest rates in the country. Miami has a clear path to win this game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they do just that. I’ll take the points.
*NBA(1u): Timberwolves +6(-110) @ Celtics–5 PM CT
The Celtics have been rolling for quite awhile now, but they are coming off a 3 day layoff in their schedule, which is not optimal. Scheduling aside, I don’t want to cherry-pick numbers to try and talk down in this Celtics group; they have been great for awhile now. However, I don’t think this number does justice to how well Minnesota is playing either. While Minnesota recently endured a 2 game spell with losses to Dallas and Phoenix, they avenged that Dallas loss on Friday with a 21 point win. Overall, this team is 11-3 over their last 14 games and have an outright road win at Miami sprinkled in there. I expect Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to play, but the fact they remain on the Injury Report tells me they aren’t in peak form. This is a “play on” Minnesota much more than it is a “play against” the Celtics, but I think the 6 point spread is a bit too high.
I don’t like today’s board as much as most so I won’t have the usual exposure.
I really appreciate the space and understanding you’ve all given me these past few days. I needed to (mostly) pull away from the daily grind, and it’s been some nice mental respite. So far we’ve had a profitable weekend – let’s cap it off big today.
NBA Picks:
Knicks/Pistons under 219.5, 1 unit
Their two matchups this year were low scoring, Julius Randle could return and slow down NYK’s pace even more, and I’m not sure that the Pistons aren’t starting to tank now, too. Under for me.
Warriors -6.5, 1.5 units
The WIzards are tanking. The Warriors need some momentum. This isn’t an ideal spot for Golden State but the young athletes on that team love to ball against bad defenses.
Suns -4, 1.5 units
What am I supposed to say? It’s the Suns, at home, and Philly has performed well on this west coast road trip. This is a comfy spot for Phoenix against a team that’s not a rival – I think the Suns could smoke Philly today.
CBB Picks:
Miami +6, 1 unit
Miami’s defense has me capping this at -4. There’s value on the Canes.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
Sunday card has our Tournament Total of the Year backed with 2 Powerful Totals Systems ones specific to Elite 8 action. We also have an NBA Platinum Supreme NBA. NHL Comp play below.
The Comp Play for Sunday in the NHL is over 7 goals at 7:05 eastern in the Florida vs Toronto game.. Expect a higher scoring game here as both teams play last night and have an abundance of Over angles that apply to them tonight. Florida has flown over 6 of 7 vs the Atlantic, 5 of 6 in a 3rd game in 4 night scenario, 35 of 50 vs winning teams and all 4 here in Toronto. The Maple Leafs also play last night and are 3 of 4 over with no rest, 4 of 5 vs Atlantic Division teams and 28 of 38 overall. These two are both top 3 in scoring, so while 7 seem like alot maybe its not. Look for this game to play over the total. On Sunday the Tournament Total of the Year headlines along with a Powerful Side play and an NBA Platinum Supreme move. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on. For the NHL Comp play. Go with the Over in the Panthers vs Maple Leafs game. the Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
*CBB(1u): Houston/Villanova 1H UNDER 58.5(-110)–5:09 PM CT
This low number might scare you, but the pace in this game is going to be absurdly slow. Villanova ranks 345th in adjusted pace, while Houston ranks 338th. Each defense is in fantastic current form as well. Houston held Illinois to just 53 in their round of 32 matchup before holding a fast-paced Arizona team to just 60 on Thursday night. Villanova is very reliant on the 3, but they are shooting just 32% from distance over their last 2 games against vulnerable defenses in Ohio State and Michigan. This Cougars defense is a much tougher test, and when you consider Villanova is unlikely to get too many second chance points, I see the Cougars defense holding tough early. Houston is the best offensive rebounding team in College Basketball, but they are not a very reliable shooting bunch. The Cougars don’t have a swiss-army knife like Villanova has had to face in their last 2 matchups(EJ Liddel, Hunter Dickinson), and even then, Nova has allowed just 58 PPG over their last 2 games. Jay Wright is going to put together a game plan that forces Houston to settle for jumpers, and I think that spells trouble for the Cougars. When you factor in pace with how these teams match up, I think points are hard to come by early in this game. 1H Under is the play for me.
*CBB(1u): Duke 1H -2(-110) vs Arkansas–7:49 PM CT
Arkansas plays a tough brand of defense, but considering Duke just put up 78 points on the best defense in the country(Texas Tech), I still like Duke in this spot. The Blue Devils aren’t going to be fazed considering how tough of a defense they just faced. This team is efficient shooting the basketball, and they limit turnovers at one of the best rates in the country. I know Arkansas beat Gonzaga on Thursday, but we saw the Zags struggle to make shots in a way I don’t see Duke struggling tonight. Arkansas is tough inside on the offensive end, but this is not a good shooting team. In fact, the Razorbacks shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land, good for 325th in the country. JD Notae continues to hack up 3’s like he’s Steph Curry, which will come back to bite this team at some point. Duke ranks Top 10 in blocked shots and protect the paint nicely, and I don’t think well-known flopper in Arkansas’s Jaylin Williams is going to have the whistle on his side tonight. I don’t want to bet against Eric Mussellman’s team in the full game given they shoot their free throws well and are just a battle-tested bunch, but Duke has shown me a lot over the past 2 games in regards to their toughness. I like Duke to come out hot and control the game in this 1st Half.
On borrowed time this weekend so write ups today and tomorrow will be much shorter. Hit me up here or on Twitter if you have any questions.
NBA Picks:
Pelicans -5.5, 1.5 units: SAS’s depth is hurting right now and this is a clobber spot for the Pelicans, who play better at home, and they should be getting B. Ingram back, I think the Pels light up the Spurs.
Magic -3, 1 unit: It’s gross, but Orlando’s the right side against a tanking Kings squad without their best players.
Nets -4, 1.5 units: Time to fade the Heat, off a B2B, who DO NOT look right. And here comes Kyrie and Durant – yikes.
Grizzlies 1Q and 1H moneylines, 1 unit each: The Bucks are banged up heading into this matchup, without Jrue and Giannis isn’t 100%. The Grizzlies are in a flow-state at home right now. Memphis’ pace and confidence is too much for most teams to handle, especially in the first half.
Lean OKC +14: Not a play, but typically the Nuggets are very bad covering in these kinds of spots. I wouldn’t bet Denver.
CBB Picks:
Houston/Nova 1H under 59.5, 1 unit
Arkansas +4,1 unit
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit.
On Saturday a huge card is up and led by the highest rated 7* 2022 NCAAB Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR backed with 2 UNDEFEATED Systems. We also have Top plays in NBA, NHL and Soccer. TBC Tournament comp play below
The NCABB Comp play is on Southern Utah at 6:00 eastern. The Thunderbirds have better overall numbers here in the TBC Tournament. They have an edge on offense and big edge in rebounding as both teams are pretty even on defense. Southern Utah has covered 4 of 5 vs winning teams and 6 of 8 as a favorite. They are off a nice dog win last out over Utep. Portland has failed to cover 16 of 20 after scoring 90 or more and just pasted an average New Orleans team. The Pilots will have a tougher time here tonight against an under rated Southern Utah team. Look for the Thunderbirds to cover. On Saturday the 7* NCAAB Tournament Game of the year headlines as we have 2 big plays going in NCAAB as well as NBA, NHL and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on. For the Comp play. Go with Southern Utah. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
The Run for the Roses heats up this weekend with the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. The Louisiana Derby starts the final round of preps that boost the pool of qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. The top four finishes in this race will earn the following points; 100-40-20-10.
FS2 – America’s Day at the Races (1:00 pm – 7:00 pm)
CNBC – Broadcast of the Louisiana Derby and Fair Grounds Oaks (6:00 pm – 7:00 pm)
Field:
PP
HORSE
JOCKEY
TRAINER
A/S
WGT
ML
1
Silent Power
G. Melancon
S. Gelner
3/C
122
50-1
2
Zozos
F. Geroux
B. Cox
3/C
122
8-1
3
Call Me Midnight
J. Graham
J. Desormeaux
3/C
122
6-1
4
Curly Tail
C. Hernandez
D. Stewart
3/C
122
30-1
5
Kupuna
R. Gutierrez
W. Calhoun
3/C
122
8-1
6
Epicenter
J. Rosario
S. Asmussen
3/C
122
7-5
7
Pioneer of Medina
T. Gaffalione
T. Pletcher
3/C
122
5-1
8
Galt
J. Alvarado
W. Mott
3/C
122
8-1
9
Rattle N Roll
B. Hernandez
K. McPeek
3/C
122
6-1
Horse Preview:
(1) Silent Power: Has gone winless since his debut where he won a four and a half furlong sprint at Prairie Meadows. This will be his first stakes race of his career and looking at the rest of the field, I’m not sure he stands a chance here. A mile and 3/16th will also be the longest race of his career and in his previous longest, which was a mile, he finished 8th in a 50k claimer.
(2) Zozos: An impressive horse going 2/2 in his career. He’s coming off a win in a 100k Allowance optional at 1 1/16 miles where he won by 10+ lengths. We’ll see how he does with the step up in class here but, given his speed figure in the last race, he should be a threat.
(3) Call Me Midnight: Coming off a narrow win in the G3 Lecomte Stakes where he edged out fellow entrant Epicenter. That was his best race in a long time and struggled in the race prior finishing 8th in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. His last two workouts have been great which is an encouraging sign so we’ll see if he can beat the 7-5 favorite again.
(4) Curly Tail: He has one win in his starts in his lifetime and is actually coming off his first career win in a 84k Maiden Special Weight. He’ll need to continue to build on that performance to have a chance in this race. This will be his first stakes race that he’s entered and the toughest competition he’s seen so far.
(5) Kupuna: He’s had an interesting 2022 season finishing 1st and 2nd. Despite not winning in his last race, it was his best speed figure wise. That was his first time running at a 1 1/16 so hopefully he’s more comfortable with the additional distance now. He seems to be running much better in his last three starts. This will also be the first stakes race he’s entered.
(6) Epicenter: Got edged out by Call Me Midnight in the G3 Lecomte Stakes as I mentioned before. However, he rebounded well winning the G2 Risen Star Stakes wire to wire. He’s the most impressive horse in this race by far and given his speed figures he only seems to be getting better. There’s a reason this horse is the 7-5 favorite in the G2 Louisiana Derby.
(7) Pioneer of Medina: He finished fourth in the G2 Risen Star Stakes his last out but, was bumped. They’ll change the jockey up as Gaffalione will get the mount. He has yet to ride his horse so we’ll see if the can develop some chemistry. This horse does have some great speed figures in his last four races and has also had some great workouts as of late. If he can stick with Epicenter in the beginning, it should be interesting to see how he challenges him down the stretch.
(8) Galt: He had a scare in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes where he fell and lost his rider. Prior to that race he finished 4th in the G3 Holy Bull Stakes and then won a 60k MsW. I would have loved to see what he could have done in the G2 FoY Stakes but he’ll get some redemption here.
(9) Rattle N Roll: This horse is coming off a 6th place finish in the Gw FoY Stakes where he really wasn’t a factor. He’s the only horse with a G1 win as he captured the Breeders’ Futurity in the race prior, at this distance. Certainly an interesting horse as he’s more than capable of winning this race but, coming off a disappointing showing. His workouts have been fantastic so look for him to close hard here on the field as they turn for home.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Epicenter, Pioneer of Medina
Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Zozos, Galt, Rattle N Roll
Closer(s): Silent Power, Call Me Midnight, Curly Tail, Kupuna,
Picks:
BET TO WIN: (9) RATTLE N ROLL
I’m hoping Epicenter and Pioneer of Medina go out fast and duel from the start which should open up the race for him to come off the pace. He did struggle in his last out but has faced this level of competition before and won.
EXACTA BOX: 3,6,9
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Money coming in on the Pistons tonight versus the seemingly hopeless Wizards and I can’t disagree with that sentiment. As a home favorite this year, the Pistons are just 2-4 ATS and just had a dud in this spot, losing to the Blazers. So there is cause for concern with Detroit in that favorite role. They have been playing well, not necessarily tanking as we’ve seen bad teams do toward the end of the season do in the NBA. The Wizards may very well be doing just that so I understand fading this team.
For this one, I’m looking at the first half as the Pistons have been the top ATS team L10, going 9-1 in the first half. Meanwhile, the Wizards are tied for the worst ATS team at 2-8 L10 1H. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some fight out of the Wizards who made a push at the end of their last game at Milwaukee after getting blown out in the first half as some of their personnel seem to be trying to save their jobs. I’ll look at the Pistons to go into half with a lead.
THE MADNESS IS HERE TO STAY!! And we welcome it as we are 8-3 in our last 11 plays and 26-12 in our last 38 plays overall!! Sign up NOW before you miss out on my All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
I have breakdowns for the 2 Sweet 16 matchups from the East quadrant (both tip Friday) and a lean for each game below. Good luck today and this weekend!!
Saint Peters/Purdue -12.5 (135.5)
The Cinderella, Saint Peters, enters this contest with the Purdue Boilermakers after knocking off a good Murray State squad in the round of 32 while Purdue took care of Texas by 10 points. Both teams enter with about a +7 point differential in the past 3 games and Purdue comes in 14-20-1 ATS as a favorite while Saint Peters is 10-3 ATS as a dog. This should be a slower paced game featuring the 260th and 251st ranked team in tempo. The Boilermakers will have a huge size advantage in this matchup as they rank 16th in average height while the Peacocks rank 295th. The strength of Saint Peters on offense is their 3 point shooting, however they only shoot from deep in 30% of their shots, which is 335th in the nation. That wont work in this matchup so I expect them to shoot more from beyond the arc in this one due to the size of Purdue. At the other end, the Boilermakers are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, if not the best, while ranking 1st in adjusted efficiency, 4th in eFG% and 13th in rebounding. This will be the end of the court to watch as the Peacocks defense is also the strength of their team. Specifically, Saint Peters ranks 5th in the nation in eFG% and 45th in turnover%. Can the Peacocks force enough turnovers to stay in this game. I could see them keeping this within single digits. Lean Saint Peters +12.5
North Carolina/UCLA -2.5 (141.5)
UNC may be the hottest team left in the tourney, however, they almost blew their 20 point lead against Baylor and won in overtime. Give the dog credit for coming out on top in OT. UCLA won their last matchup against St Marys from start to finish. In their last 3 games, the Tar Heels own a +8.3 point differential while the Bruins are +4. North Carolina is also 7-2 ATS this season with 4+days off and UCLA is 17-12 ATS as a favorite. These 2 squads have contrasting tastes in tempo as UNC likes to push the pace (ranking 54th in the nation) and the Bruins prefer to slow it down (308th). UCLA will have the clear edge in experience and depth in this one and will look to score inside the arc, like they’ve done all season, and get the Tar Heels into foul trouble and getting into their (lack of) depth. I wont be easy though, since the interior defense is the strength of the Tar Heels. Both teams are excellent from the FT line and beyond the arc but UCLA definitely prefers to drive and take mid range shots while UNC settles for more 3s. On defense, the Tar Heels don’t force many turnovers, so UCLA should win that battle, but the key to this game will be rebounding. Whoever scores more second chance points in this matchup will win this game. The Bruins rank 1st in the nation in preventing second chance conversions. Lean UCLA -2.5 and Under 141.5
