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NBA Free Pick from FarleyBets: Clippers at Nuggets – March 22, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Batum and Jokic battling in a game between the Clippers and Nuggets.

 

FarleyBets here with a free pick and our free picks have been ON FIRE! Below is an angle I really like tonight – let’s get a W!

Current NBA Record: NBA: 242-186 (57%), +78.40 units
Translation: We win, a lot. Click here for my premiums every day in your inbox!

Clippers +6 (-105), 1 unit: There’s a lot of good reasons to believe the Clippers can cover tonight’s game, and there’s even more reasons to believe their foe cannot cover tonight’s line. Let’s look at some of the data before we break this down:

  • Sharps jumped on this immediately and the line has moved in favor of the Clippers, dropping from +8 to now +6  at most books.
  • The Clippers have covered all 3 previous games against Denver. They have an ATS point differential of +12.5 in those three contests this year.
  • The Clippers boast a top 10 defense that’s been relatively consistent all year. Lately they’ve dropped in defensive efficiency ratings – I love this as a spot to regress to their mean (they’re 8th overall this season).

The Clippers’ reputation on defense is primarily because of how well they contest shots on the perimeter. Of course they’ve battled all year without Kawhi Leonard, and losing exceptional defenders like Pat Beverly (now on the Timberwolves) and Paul George (announced out for the regular season) hasn’t helped, but they still play at a level that makes it tough for any offense to thrive. They’re top 10 in opponent 3-point percentage and 3-pointers made per game, and they’re top 5 in opponent 2-point percentage, opponent shooting percentage, and opponent effective field goal percentage.

And that’s why they’re such a good matchup for Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. The best way (truly the only way) to stop Denver is to make life harder for Jokic. If you limit his supporting cast, an area where LAC has plenty of experience, then you greatly burden Jokic and force the Nuggets to be a one-trick-pony.

Lastly, the Nuggets have not covered well in these spots. Denver is:

  • 13-16 ATS (44.8%) after a loss
  • 18-26 ATS (40.9%) in conference games
  • 13-21 ATS (38.2%) as a home team
  • And the Nuggets have failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 contests

To this guy, the value is solely on the Clippers tonight.

Premiums, 3.22

By
Chris R. Farley
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A few points to make this morning, after such a shitty, shitty day.

  1. It’s really easy to overreact after days like yesterday. I considered not having any plays today and I considered taking a break until I decided I shouldn’t. In my experience, an idle mind never helps anything, and we shouldn’t overly question ourselves.
  2. The reality is: the Heat were the right side, period. Everything was in their favor, and the line movement and the closing line value we got was absurd.  I would have bet that same wager 100 times out of 100.
  3. This is why it’s integral that we should never declare that ANY bet is a “lock.” Those do not exist, especially not in professional sports.
  4. It’s also a major reason why none of us should ever over-invest in any one wager. Bankroll management is a fundamental key to long-term success.
For the record, we’re still hitting at 57% and we’re still close to +80 units this season. We’ve been spoiled. Let’s try to spoil ourselves some more today.
NBA Picks:
  • Lean, Magic -7.5
    • I won’t bet this, but the line movement here is weird. There’s substantially more bets and more money on the Warriors, yet the line has moved down in favor of Orlando. This reverse line-movement is usually indicative of something the sportsbooks know that we don’t, and they’re trying to capitalize and make money off it. I wouldn’t bet on GS here.
  • Hawks/Knicks under 226.5, 1.5 units
    • The books are over-adjusting this total. In 3 previous games, the Hawks and Knicks have produced 225, 188, and 189 points. Two of those three games were way under, and this line is attempting to match the one over that hit in the 225 point game. In the one game that went over, both teams shot 50% from the field and it still fell under tonight’s total. The Hawks and Knicks match up well on defense and both teams know they can’t allow the other squad to get hot from beyond the arc. This will be a battle between two teams vying for a spot in the playoffs – I gotta love the under.
  • Bulls +6.5, 1 unit
    • This is a tough spot for the Bulls but at second glance, it’s not THAT tough. Milwaukee isn’t far from Chicago and that was a nice win last night for a Chicago team that’s trying to find its identity and more consistency. Chicago can be deadly from beyond the arc, Middleton won’t be in this contest, and there’s a chance that Giannis sits too. This is a big-time conference game and I think it means way more to the Bulls.
  • Clippers +6.5, 1 unit
    • Every game between these two western conference rivals has been close, and LAC has covered all 3 previous contests. These teams match up well on both sides of the court, and LAC needs to win just as much as Denver wants to keep winning. The Clippers defense continues to be elite, top 10 all year, and they’re well coached and more predictable than most NBA teams. I’ll take the away dog tonight for 1 unit.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Podcast 23 – 22 – NCAA Tournament Recap and Sweet 16 Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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We have a great show for you today!  First, Kiev recaps a crazy weekend in college basketball.  Pure madness.  The contrarian view helped clipped him 31-22 ATS up 24U over the last week in college hoops.  Next, Kiev talks about his brackets being busted and the trendy seeds that got destroyed.   Then, we talk about the elephant in the room that CBS avoided like the plague due to dishonest broadcasting.  After that, Kiev talks about which conferences are overrated and which ones are underrated.  Next, we talk teams that have the easier rout to the final 4 and which seeds have the harder rout.  Finally, Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com

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If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds22 for 20% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

Premiums, 3.21

By
Chris R. Farley
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First of all – 3.21? That’s a damn good date. I’m not a numerology guy but my favorite number is 21, and it’s the 3rd month? Let’s go – has to be some luck in that!
The Heat line is finally out. I heard some of you got a better line than me but I’m still excited for this opportunity. I absolutely LOVE Miami tonight. Onto the picks!

NBA Picks:

  • Pistons 1H -4 , 1 unit and
  • Pistons -7, 1 unit
    • Why not? The Blazers are in a horrendous spot off a long road trip and a back to back, and as I’ve said many times over in these posts, they have the worst current roster of any NBA team. No Simons and no Nurkic = poor talent with no stand out leader or scorer. The Pistons are feeling themselves lately, snagging wins and covering 12 of their last 14 games. They’ve also covered something like 10 straight 1st halves. Players like Bey, Cunningham, and other young talent are starting to burgeon in their early careers. Detroit is having fun right now and I think they BLAST the piss-poor Blazers.
  • Heat -1.5, 3 units
    • I saw some of you got a + number here, which is AWESOME. The Heat are one of the best away teams in the NBA, covering 62.9% of their road games this year. Now they’re in a hugely advantageous spot against a Philly team that’s off a B2B and 3 games in 4 days. Embiid and Harden could rest and Butler should be back after rolling his ankle early next week. ALL MIAMI for this guy.
  • Jazz/Nets over 229.5, 1.5 units
    • Neither of these defenses have been up to par, but the Nets in particular have struggled stopping anyone of merit (except for that one all-in performance against Philly). This is a potential Durant-explosion spot and the Jazz are off a B2B, which should only affect their defense negatively after a hard-fought battle against NYK. I like the over.
Sweet 16 Lookahead Lines: I think all of the below lines move against the side I like as the week moves on, so I’m grabbing these now for 1 unit.
  • Michigan/Villanova under 135
  • Texas Tech -1
  • St. Peter’s +12.5
  • NC +2
  • Miami -1.5
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

NBA 3 Star Play Alert

By
Chris R. Farley
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NBA Lines are out and there’s a game I REALLY want to jump on tomorrow. Most books aren’t posting it yet but I LOVE Miami at Philly Monday. Philly will be off a B2B, 3 games in 4 days, and the Heat will be off 3 days of rest and Jimmy Butler should return. This is a potential statement game for Miami and it’s very possible that Harden and/or Embiid could sit. Here’s how I am betting it:

  • If Miami is the underdog of 3 or more, this is a 4 unit play
  • If Miami is an underdog of +2.5 to EVEN, this is a 3 unit play.
  • If Miami is a favorite up to -3.5, this is a 2 unit play.
Wynnbet, which I can’t access, is the first book to have it out as Heat +3.5. Let’s hope that WE GET THAT LINE! LFG!
Chris

Sunday March Madness Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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Auburn forward Jabari Smith (10) reacts after a score during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Murray State Wednesday, Dec. 22, 2021, in Auburn, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

Coming off a 1-0-1 night, I’m back today with 3 CBB plays to close out the week! In addition to this free play, I have 2 plays reserved for my premium members, including a multiunit best bet. Click here to join the team as a premium member and get my best plays sent to you each and every day!

*CBB(1u): Auburn -7(-110) vs Miami–6:45 PM CT

Miami picked up a solid win vs USC on Friday, but the Trojans put out a pretty pathetic effort. USC lost the turnover battle 16-3 and still found themselves in the game late. Give Miami credit, but that game is just as much a reflection on USC. Anyway, as is the case in most Miami games, the Hurricanes are at a severe disadvantage down low in this one. Miami is a poor rebounding team on both ends of the floor, which bodes horribly considering Auburn already has the size advantage down low. In addition to having the advantage on the glass, the Tigers also protect the rim better than anybody in the country(7.9 blocks/game), which should force Miami to steer from their ideal gameplan and settle for jump shots outside of their comfort zone. Miami is able to stay in games because they don’t turn the ball over, but they are horrendous defensively. Auburn is already going to dominate on the glass, so when you factor in that this is an easier defense than the ones they had to face in the SEC, I think Auburn has plenty of success offensively. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel as if public sentiment on Auburn has dipped down too low. This team is still a 2 seed for a reason, and they have proven to be more than capable of beating teams like Miami by double-digits. Given the mismatch on the glass and down low, I’m going to take a shot with an Auburn team that I think has almost entered “buy low” territory. Still, this is as much of a play against Miami as it is a play on Auburn. 

Sunday March Madness Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1.5u): Wisconsin -4.5(-110) vs Iowa State–5:10 PM CT

I’ve been critical about Wisconsin plenty this year, but this is a spot where I see them having their way. Remember, Iowa State was a 2-win team last year that went winless in Big12 play before handing the reigns over to TJ Otzelberger. They got off to a very hot start in non-conference play, but over the last 2 months, this has not been a good basketball team. They got an easy draw in the 1st Round playing LSU, who had just fired their coach a few days prior and is in panic mode. The Cyclones’ offense runs through one guy: Isaiah Brockington. When he’s on, they can hang in games because they play tough defense. But man, when he’s not on his “A” game, games tend to get ugly. Just since February, ISU had a 41 point output vs Texas, a 36(!) point output vs Oklahoma State, and a 41 point output vs Texas Tech just last week. Wisconsin is well-coached with Greg Gard, and I trust Gard to deploy the proper gameplan and try to phase Brockington out of this game. Wisconsin gets stuck playing “iso ball” a bit too much for my liking offensively, but in this matchup, I think their talent will win out. It’s also worth noting that, with this game being in Milwaukee, this is a quasi-home game for the Badgers. Credit to Otzelberger for a good 1st year, but I think it ends in a loud way today. Badgers -4.5 is my best bet.

*CBB(1u): Texas/Purdue OVER 135(-110)–7:40 PM CT

Because of my fandom, I almost never give out my betting opinion on Texas games. However, I felt like I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t play this given that I know what I do.

Purdue is one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but facing off with Texas’ defense will be no cake walk. Even so, you have to assume the Boilermakers are able to hit some jumpshots today, and they have a huge mismatch on that end of the floor. Zach Edey is a good post player in his own right, but his greatest asset is his 7’4 frame. Texas’ starting center, Christian Bishop, is just 6’8(on a good day), and there isn’t a Longhorn taller than 6’10 that you’ll see on the floor. Obviously, Chris Beard will try to throw some tricks at Edey, but there is a huge advantage for Purdue down low nonetheless. Texas is not a great rebounding team to begin with, so given Purdue has the massive height advantage, second chance opportunities should be abundant for an already efficient offense. The path to victory for my Horns has to be to continue making shots. Texas put up 81 in their last game and shot 10/19 from deep; given this is one of the oldest rosters in the country that can get hot on that end of the floor, I don’t think this moment will be too big for them. Purdue is not good defensively; in fact, they’d likely have been the worst defense in the Big12 this season, so Texas should be able to find some success on that end of the floor. As of late, Texas has started to push the pace on fastbreak opportunities and will likely need to even more so tonight. I do think this will be a competitive game, and as I’ve layed out, the way we’re going to see that is via a higher-scoring game. This one should be played in the 70’s as opposed to the mid-60’s; I like the Over here.

The West Bracket Round 2 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Sunday:

Notre Dame vs Texas Tech -7.5 O/U 132

Texas Tech might be the best team in the Big 12 because they play great defense and they have some athletes.  That being said, Notre Dame is not getting much respect on this line and I think that it’s a tad bit High.  On Wednesday, the Irish beat a very good Rutgers team and they made Alabama look like sloppy.  Texas Tech shares the same Weakness as Alabama as they turn the ball over at a high rate of 20.2%.   Another issue with Tech is that they do not shoot the three ball well ranking 246th in the nation which doesn’t leave them much room for large margin.  Ranking 232nd in Free Throws doesn’t bode well for late game fouling.  The Irish rank 10th from downtown and I think they keep this game close.

Notre Dame +7.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle

Michigan State vs Duke -6.5 O/U 146.5

Coach K’s last dance is back, but they still have not been covering big margins.  Duke has some talent and some leadership but when they step up in competition, they tend to go on long cold streaks.  That is not a recipe for success and especially against a State team that ranks 22nd in three point percentage with a good defense.   Sparty has some height with Marcus Bingham and Malik Hall that should match up well vs Paolo Banchero and Mark Williams.   Duke is a very young team that doesn’t have the experience to play as a favorite.   Sparty is at least somewhat consistent and they know it’s March.   Gonna go with Izzo plus the points and this could be an upset.

Michigan State +6.5 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle

Premiums, 3.20

By
Chris R. Farley
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Badass day Saturday – let’s keep it rollin’!

NBA Picks:
  • Blazers/Pacers over 234.5, 1.5 units
    • I wish we got a better number and this is getting a little high but I have this game at 237. The Pacers will have their way with the Blazers on offense, with easily the best player on the court in T. Haliburton, while the Blazers will have more space and less resistance than usual. This feels a lot like the DET/ORL game Thursday – a bunch of young, skilled scorers maximizing the situation with little else to play for – so why not score a ton of points? Love the over, and I’d take it up to 235.
  • Hawks/Pelicans under 232, 1 unit
    • The line feels right but the total feels way too high. The Pelicans and Hawks don’t exactly play at a blitzing pace, especially when facing teams that play with a similar tempo. This contest also has a contentious feel – two teams battling for a spot in the playoffs and both willing to put in full effort on defense to gain margin. I have this at 226 and I’d take it down to 230.
  • Suns/Kings over 232.5, 1.5 units
    • All the Suns do is prove over and over how good they are and how consistent they are, especially on offense, and all they do is hit overs, too. The Suns have played much faster without CP3 and the Kings find ways to put up points in most contests, no matter who their opponent is. Not going to overthink this – this is a straightforward play that “should” hit.
  • Knicks 1H +2.5, 1 unit
    • I’d rather not subject myself to another Knicks flake-out-session in the 2nd half, so why not a 1st half bet. The Knicks have been covering ATS and battling hard in the 1st half of play for almost 2 weeks now. The Jazz are elite when they want to be, but they’ve shown a real lack of chemistry in situations where the other team is more motivated. I’m taking NYK at home in the first 24 minutes.
CBB Picks:
  • Illinois wins (+155), 1 unit to win 1.55 units
    • I think Houston is overrated this year, and if Kofi Cockburn plays to his potential, he can overcome a really good paint defense.
  • Texas Tech over 70 points, 1 unit
    • The Red Raiders know that ND can score, and even though the Irish are VERY MUCH DUE for some negative regression in their efficiency, Texas Tech should come out hot and aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. Predicated on defense, but we’ve seen the way they can run up the score against a mediocre defense.
  • Parlay (1.3 units to win 4.8 units):
    • All Money-Line: Villanova, Auburn, Texas Tech, Purdue, Arizona
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NHL Comp Play + NCAAB Round 2 Top Totals play info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Sunday Card has the 2022 NIT Tournament Game of the Year and a TOP Round 2 NCAAB Total along with powerful set of side plays one from a 21-1 system. There is a 5* NBA Perfect system total. NHL Comp play below.

The NHL Comp play is over 5.5 goals in the Winnipeg at Chicago game at 5:05 Eastern. In the series 4 of the last 5 here have played over and both teams are under average on defense with Chicago ranked 24th and Winnipeg 18th. The Jets are 5-0 over vs the West,6 of 8 with 1 day of rest and 5 of 6 over as a favorite. Chicago has played over 4 of 5 with no rest and 5 of the last 7 at home. Look for a fast paced game that flys over the total. On  Sunday a huge card is up with the NIT Tournament Game Of The Year, a Top NCAAB Round 2 Total and 2 more Powerful side plays all from long term systems. Then there is a 5* NBA Perfect System Total. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big as we stay Hot in hoops. For the NHL Comp play. Go over the total in the Winnipeg at Chicago game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

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