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Premiums, 3.19

By
Chris R. Farley
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Shitty all around performance yesterday. Incredibly bad beats with the Montana St TT under and the Knicks not covering, not to mention a push in the IND/HOU game. Yikes. Maybe I pissed off Zeus or something. 

It gets real easy to overthink days like Friday. I won’t do it and you shouldn’t either. We’re missing out on some edges and we’re overvaluing others. Lessons learned, onto a new day. Let’s start this weekend with some wins.
NBA Picks:
  • Bucks/Timberwolves 1Q over 61, 1.5 units
  • Bucks/Timberwolves 1H over 122, 1.5 units
    • I could see this game slowing down, especially if Milwaukee plays the kind of defense they’re capable of later in the contest, but these are two of the highest scoring 1Q and 1H teams in the NBA. Both teams like to start off explosive and with pace. Games like this, between two surging teams who will be in the postseason, tend to slow down or get more defensive towards the end. I wouldn’t play over 62.5 or 123.5. Look for these lines live if the Gods are still pissed at me and this game starts slow.
  • Hornets ML (+105) to win 1.5 units
    • This is a really, really bad spot for the Mavericks on a B2B after a tiring and humbling loss against Philly last night. Now, no doubt exhausted, Dallas has to face a Charlotte team that’s finding its groove and plays with intense speed and output. I don’t like that for the typically slow-paced, methodical style of Luka and the Mavs. I suspect Charlotte may become the favorite before tipoff.
  • Lean, Lakers ML – If LeBron plays, I guess they should win?
CBB Picks:
  • North Carolina +5.5, 1 unit
    • The dogs have been barking and I’m choosing to buy on the Tar Heels, for now. Baylor is one of the premiere teams in the country, no doubt, but NC looks their best version as of late and instead of second-guessing that and waiting for them to choke, why not ride the hot hand? The Tar Heels have the talent to beat anyone in college basketball – I have to bet they keep this close.
  • Michigan/Tennessee under 136.5, 1 unit
    • This total is too high for me – I have it at 131.5, and this just feels like a defensive battle, doesn’t it? Michigan impressed in the first round against an explosive Colorado State offense and lord knows the Volunteers are consistently a lock-down D.
  • St. Peter’s +9, 1 unit
    • Maybe I’m just playing on a good story here but St. Peter’s showed a TON against one of the best teams in the country in round 1. Momentum alone should carry them to the belief that they can hang in this game and/or win it. Murray St. is better than people think, but I think they’re slightly inflated here. My line has this at -7.5.
UFC Picks:
  • Tom Aspinal (-140), to win 1 unit
  • Arnold Allen (-120), to win 1 unit
  • Paddy Pimblett in round 2 (+400, 1 unit to win 4)
  • Cory McKenna wins inside distance (+275, 1 unit to win 2.75)
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. All plays listed are TO WIN that amount. In other words, if I say Bucks -3 for 1 unit, we’re betting 1.1 units at -110 or 1.15 units at -115 to win 1 unit. 
 
Always appreciate all of you! -Chris 

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday NCAAB Tournament Preview and Selection

By
Rob Vinciletti
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The NCAAB Comp Play is on Murray St at 7:45 eastern. The Racers have won 21 in a row and  were staring at a 2nd round match with Kentucky until St. Peters pulled off a huge upset as an 18 point dog. Now they are sizeable favorites but they should get the cover here as we note that tournament dogs of of 5 or more off a win and allowed 79 or more have failed to cover 17 of 21. In fact teams seeded 13 or worse in round 2 have failed to cover 37 of 51 long term. Murray St has covered 5 of 6 vs .600 or better teams. Look for them to get the cover here tonight. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports

Tourney Free Play

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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761 Colgate vs Wisconsin UN 139.5*

This total has been pushed down from its 140.5 open and we have seen a tendency for neutral court games to go under. While WISC is 18-12 O/U on the season, they’ve only gone over 5 of their L13. Colgate sits at 16-17 O/U on the season and showed themselves able to push the pace in their non-conference games but are only 6-6 O/U.  Wisconsin sits at 7-3 O/U in non-conference but the market didn’t adjust to their scoring ability as they didn’t have a total above 139 until they got into conference play.

With Wisconsin 25th in defensive efficiency, bottom half of college in pace, and recent run of unders I have to look towards Wisconsin’s defense to slow this one down for Colgate. Colgate is top 100 in offense coming out of the Patriot but with system support for unders on a neutral court and the market pulling this one down, I’m on the under in this one.

I’ve still got three late game plays at my Patreon, looking to end the day strong!

The 2022 NCAA Tournament West Quadrant Part 4 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Friday:

Davidson vs Michigan State -1 O/U 141

Wow is Davidson ever the trendy pick here.   I thought March was Izzo month?    Lots of doubters out there.  In saying that, Michigan State has been a very hot and cold team themselves this year and this team really has no top 100 players and no Identity.  What I will say is that this line is disrespectful to Sparty, and they shoot the long ball pretty well ranking 8th in the nation at 38.6%.  Davidson Shoots the three well themselves ranking 9th at 38.5% but the kicker is that Michigan State defends it better ranking 51st in opponent 3 point percentage to Davidson ranking 217th.   Big advantage State.  I am going to wait this line out and see if I can get them as a dog here.

Michigan State is the play – 1.5 stars

Cal State Fullerton vs Duke -18.5 O/U 145.5

Coach Ks last dance!!!!   Well, unless he is like Tom Brady, and Brett Favre.  I do not like how Duke finished their season but this is certainly a mismatch here.  One would have to think that Duke will want to start strong after their UNC choke at home and losing the ACC tournament.  This is why the line is juiced at 18.5  Neither team plays all that fast and Duke will be focused on defense especially seeing what happened to Kentucky.  This is a high total here and I think that CSF might end up being toast.   Their pace looks fast but in reality, the Big West plays slow in general.  Under is the play

Under 145.5 – 2 stars

 

Laying the Points with FarleyBets: NBA Picks Pod – March 18, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Jan 6, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett (9) dribbles up court against the Boston Celtics during the first quarter at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

 

It’s another edition of Laying the Points and we go over a BIG NBA Slate for your Friday bets– tune in and please subscribe to Laying the Points and TheOddsBreakers podcasts!

Current NBA Record: NBA: 236-175 (57.3%), +87.95 units
Translation: We win, a lot. Click here for my premiums every day in your inbox!

NCAA Tournament East Quadrant – Friday Games

By
Nick Hub
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THE MADNESS CONTINUES TODAY!! Yesterday, I wrote about the 6 games from the East, which included an premium play on Akron and leans on Murray State and St Peters.  I was not shocked to see the Peacocks cover last night but I did not think they could win OUTRIGHT like they did! haha. This is March!! Gotta love it!!

Anyway, I have breakdowns for the 2 Friday games from the East quadrant and a lean for each game below.  Good luck today and this weekend!!

Sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

Texas/Virginia Tech

This will be a VERY slow paced game with these squads ranking 333rd and 343th in tempo.  The Hokies are riding high after winning the ACC Tournament title and enter with a +11.7 point differential in their last 3 games while Texas comes in on a bit of a limp with a -6.3 point differential in their last 3.  On the season, the Longhorns are 2-7 ATS with 4+ days off and are 10-13 ATS as a favorite. Virginia Tech scores the 31st most points in the nation with the 3-point line while shooting 39.3% from deep (3rd best in the nation).  Texas is going to have to make to the Hokies drive the ball, especially if they are shooting around their season average.  The Longhorns weakness on defense is guarding the perimeter and are much better inside the arc, ranking 37th in the nation in defending the 2-point shot.  Additionally, Texas will look to turn their defense into offense (as they’ve done all year), ranking 13th in turnover% and 62nd in the nation in potential quick points off breakaway steals. I lean to the hotter team here, VA Tech ML +105.

Purdue/Yale

The Boilermakers enter this game as one of the worst teams away from home this season, ranking 330th in that stat and owning the 300th ranking in consistency and 343rd in momentum…yikes!  Purdue is also just 12-20-1 ATS this season as a favorite and 5-8-1 ATS as a favorite of 12.5 points or more.  Saying that, Purdue will have the clear edge on offense as they are 4th in the nation in eFG% and 13th in offensive rebounding% which contributes to their #1 ranking in the nation in 2nd chance point conversion%.  Purdue will absolutely dominate inside the arc, where they shoot 55.9% and rank 13th in the nation in 2-point% and will have the luxury of going up against the Yale defense who ranks 233rd in defending the 2-point shot (keep in mind they play in the Ivy League).  Purdue is not an elite defense by any stretch but matchup well against Yale and will be able to neutralize their streghths while dominating the boards.  Don’t love it, but lean Purdue -16.

Sign up NOW before you miss out on my  All Access March Madness Subscription at The OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

Rob Vinciletti: Friday Tournament Power Play + Round 1 Play of the Year info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Friday card is Loaded with the Round 1 Play of the Year tonight, 2 early Top plays on e from a 38-2 system and an Late Platinum Supreme total. There is also Perfect System Play on the NBA and NHL. Tournament comp play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Davidson plus the point or two at 9:40 eastern. The Wildcats fit a powerful system pertaining to team off a favored conference championship loss. Their loss to Richmond dont look as bad now that Richmond upset Big 10 Iowa yesterday. Davidson has won 27 this year and has better numbers on both sides of the ball. They have covered 5 of 6 on neutral courts, 4 of 5 as a dog and the last 4 on Fridays. Michigan St has failed to cover 6 of 8 as a tournament favorite. We may see another Atlantic 10 team take out a Big 10 squad. Look for the Wildcats to get the cash. On Friday another huge card is up featuring our highest Rated Round 1 Game of the Year tonight along with a Platinum Supreme Total. In day action the lead play is a 38-2 System play and a Rare 6*. We also have a Perfect System NHL Total and NBA Side. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we continue to cash with exclusive Data that wont be seen anywhere else. For the Tournament comp play. Go with Davidson. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Full Premiums, 3.18

By
Chris R. Farley
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5-1 in March Madness picks Thursday! Let’s do it again Friday, and we have yet another advantageous board in the NBA. Hope you got in most of my early plays last night. The Raptors 1H line will probably open at -5 so I changed that, and I put other additions at the bottom of the page. Let’s go! Happy Friday!

NBA Picks:

  • Knicks -4.5, 2 units
    • Just gotta keep playing on the Knicks. They’re surging, playing MUCH better defense, and the Wizards don’t have the firepower to hang with them right now, especially if they’re nailing 3s. I’d take this up to -6.
  • Mavericks +4, 1.5 units
    • The Mavericks are low-key surging into the postseason. They’re 60% ATS as an underdog and 57% ATS overall. I’ll take Luka all day over Harden, but Embiid will likely be a problem for the Mavs’ shallow front court. Even so, the Mavericks figured it out in their first matchup and with their slow pace and efficiency from the perimeter and guard position, an area where the Sixers struggle to defend. Dallas should continue to find success and they can at least take this down to the wire.
  • Nets -13, 2 units
    • There may not be ANY number that’s too big here. The Nets are chasing their spot in the playoffs and they’re at home, with one of the best players in the world in Durant, off a loss, against the worst roster in the association. I’d take this up to -18. I’m not kidding.
  • Raptors 1H -5, 1.5 units
    • How can we not play this? It’s not available at most books yet, but grab it when it is. The Lakers have not covered in 11 straight first halves, and they had serious trouble against the Raptors 3 days ago. Toronto easily won the battle in the paint and I see no reason why they won’t again. They didn’t shoot very well in the first game and it didn’t matter– they beat the Lake show by double digits. Raptors -7.5 is probably the right side, too, but I like the 1H more. I’d take it up to -5.5.
  • Pacers/Rockets over 239, 1 unit
    • It’s gross but this is a fast-paced game with matchup advantages on both sides– mainly Christian Wood against a BAD Indiana front court and talented Pacers’ guards against a bad perimeter defense in Houston. Lock and load- the over should be golden. Only 1 unit because these are two hard teams to trust. I’d take it up to 242.
  • Pelicans +3.5, 1 unit
    • The Pelicans are the right side here, even without B. Ingram. New Orleans needs to win this game, just as SAS does, and 3.5 is too many points for a relatively even talent matchup. Without Ingram, I’d still give the nod to the Pels starting 5. If they get decent bench support, this should remain close or the Pelicans will win straight up.
  • Christian Wood over 33 Points/Reb/Assists (+110), 1 unit
    • The Pacers have had NO answer for good front court play and C. Wood is the only rising star Houston has.
  • RJ Barrett to score 27 or more points (+112), 1 unit
    • RJ Barrett has led his team in scoring throughout their surge and he should feast on Washington’s porous defense tonight.
  • Lean, Hawks +6
March Madness Picks, Friday:
  • Loyola-Chicago wins, 1 unit
    • I’ve seen enough choking from Ohio State to want to completely avoid them. Loyola has the experience and lock-down defense to win.
  • Montana State under 59 pts, 1 unit
    • The only defense to fear in the tournament besides Tennessee? Texas Tech, the #1 rated defense on KenPom and a team that plays agonizingly slow. It will be VERY hard for Montana State to get to 60.
  • Alabama -4, 1 unit
    • I know the Crimson Tide hasn’t looked as crisp this year, but they still have a ton of talent and speed to overwhelm Notre Dame and they’re inconsistent offense. The Irish got their big win Wednesday – I think Bama looks more like their brand last year tonight.
  • Texas -1, 1.5 units
    • Texas is limping into the tournament, but I’ll rely on proven defense before I rely on a VA Tech offense that’s looked good in spurts, but hasn’t faced the kind of resistance they’ll be up against tonight.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris 

NCAA Tournament–South Region Preview(Part 3/3)

By
Michael Fordham
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There are 6 games in the South Region taking place today. 3 are broken down below, while the other 3 were broken down in my last post. I give out multiple official plays in this post, so be sure to read this in its entirety. Let’s have ourselves a Friday!

Arizona(-21.5) vs Wright State O/U 157–Thursday 6:27 PM CT

This is a pretty simple handicap for me… if I’m playing, I’m laying the points with Arizona. Wright State does excel in certain areas(2pt FG% and FT%, to be specific), but they can’t be considered a real threat to compete for 40 minutes in this game. You’ll be hard pressed to find many stats that take away from Arizona’s success, but one major element that could come into play is their (lack of) experience. Arizona is quite literally one of the youngest teams in the country, and they’ll also probably be without starting G Kerr Kriisa in this one. Arizona should win this game comfortably, but I won’t be on them today. 

Houston(-8.5) vs UAB O/U 136.5–8:20 PM CT

Houston ranks 4th in KenPom, yet they are a 5 seed entering this Tournament. Sure, they’re underseeded, but this game will be no cake walk. UAB is a battle-tested bunch that caught fire in the C-USA Tournament; Jelly Walker is arguably the hottest player in College Basketball at the moment. The Blazers are efficient in both 2pt FG% and 3pt FG%, which should set up for a great battle facing off with a Houston defense that ranks just outside of the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. I understand the appeal of backing the Blazers here, but you have to consider that Houston ranks 1st in offensive rebounding percentage and should be able to carry that over into a matchup where they’ll have the considerable size advantage. However, the Cougars don’t shoot the lights out the ball, and strangely, this team really struggles from the free-throw line in a major way(66.9%), an area that always proves to be important at this time of the year. This is an appealing game for me to watch and learn more about each team as I prepare for Round 2, but not a game I’m rushing to bet or have a significant edge in. Houston does like to slow the tempo down, and all of UAB’s bigger non-conference matchups stayed under the total. I have the slightest of leans towards the Under here. 

Seton Hall(PK) vs TCU O/U 128.5–8:57 PM CT

TCU plays a very stout brand of defense(24th in defensive efficiency), but my Lord is this offense just terrible. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land(328th), 66.8% from the free-throw line(323rd), and hold a poor 0.9 assist/turnover ratio. They do rack up offensive rebounds at one of the highest clips in the sport, but I believe Seton Hall has the necessary size down low to negate some of those second chance points. Seton Hall also racks up 5.5 blocks/game(10th). With that said, Seton Hall doesn’t exactly light it up on the offensive end themselves. The Pirates turn the ball over at an equally poor rate as TCU, and this team specifically struggles in 2pt FG%. The Pirates shoot the 3-ball considerably better than TCU does, which should play a role in this game as these teams settle in. In a pick-em type spot like this, there are 2 key factors swinging LARGELY in Seton Hall’s direction. First, the Pirates are the far more experienced team, ranking 21st in that department. TCU is a young team that only ranks 308th in continuity. Second(and certainly not least), Seton Hall shoots their free-throws at an astronomically higher rate. While TCU hits their foul shots at a mere 66.8% clip, Seton Hall is very strong in that area, making 76% of their foul shots. I’m also inclined to believe that TCU is a bit overvalued after a few late season heroic performances at home, but especially for a young team, I can’t trust them to carry that over to the West Coast tonight. I am officially on Seton Hall PK and the 1H UNDER 60.5 for 1u each!

March 18th CBB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): USC ML(-130) vs Miami–2:10 PM CT

This line sits at USC -2, but given how much every point matters(especially in this Tournament), I’d much rather just take the Trojans to win this one outright. I’ve seen Miami be really pesky at the end of games this season, and I want to avoid a situation where we lose if USC wins a close game. 20 cents is more than reasonable to be getting 2 additional points of value.

Miami is a “sexy” team that can put up points, but they are not built to win at this point of the season. The Hurricanes are putrid defensively(157th in defensive efficiency) and rebound at one of the lowest percentages in the country on both ends of the floor. That bodes horribly considering USC is one of the tallest teams in the country that ranks 38th in offensive rebounding percentage and won’t be beaten by Miami on the defensive glass either. While Miami can shoot the 3-ball, they would much rather score around the rim. Problem is, USC uses their height to block 4.5 shots/game(43rd in CBB), meaning Miami will likely have to resort to settling for shots that are outside of their wheelhouse. If you haven’t caught my drift, small/weak teams like Miami don’t win at this point in the season. As a kicker, USC Head Coach Andy Enfield is a guy I want my money on at this time of the season. He was the mastermind behind the great Florida Gulf Coast run back in 2013, and he took this Trojans team to the Elite 8 just last season. I know Miami HC Jim Larranaga is a veteran head coach, but aside from his Cinderella run with George Mason 16 years ago, he is just 5-9 in the Tournament and has simply not taken this ‘Canes program to the next level. Miami could be pesky late in this one, but I think the battle will be too uphill for them to overcome. USC ML is the play.

*CBB(1u): Duke -18.5(-110) vs Cal State Fullerton–6:10 PM CT

I’m using very similar logic as I did with my play on Baylor today. Public sentiment is down on this Duke team after they lost in very public fashion to UNC and Virginia Tech late in the year, but that’s really irrelevant heading into this matchup. Cal State Fullerton is a bad basketball team that is inefficient in both 2pt FG% and 3pt FG% and holds an assist/turnover ratio of just 0.9. Duke’s late season losses came to teams that were playing among the best offensive basketball in the country; this is anything but that. Duke is incredibly efficient themselves in essentially every offensive statistic, and they also have some margin for error given they hold the major edge on the inside. Duke ranks 25th in average height, while CSUF ranks 255th in that same department. Duke blocks 5.5 shots/game, while the Titans barely managed to reach 2 blocks/game playing in the Big West. The rebounding edge also largely swings in Duke’s direction on both ends of the floor. I could go on-and-on, but this is a total and utter mismatch that does not garner a spread below 20. I’ll be on the Blue Devils in this one.

*CBB(1u): Seton Hall/TCU 1H UNDER 60.5(-110)–8:57 PM CT

Just like I said New Mexico St/UCONN could be the ugliest 1st Half of the Thursday slate, I feel the exact same way about this matchup. TCU plays a very stout brand of defense(24th in defensive efficiency), but my Lord is this offense just terrible. The Horned Frogs shoot just 30.4% from 3-point land(328th), 66.8% from the free-throw line(323rd), and hold a poor 0.9 assist/turnover ratio. The Horned Frogs do rack up offensive rebounds at one of the highest clips in the sport, but I believe Seton Hall has the necessary size down low to negate some of those second chance points(5th in height). Seton Hall also racks up 5.5 blocks/game(10th). With that said, Seton Hall doesn’t exactly light it up on the offensive end themselves. The Pirates turn the ball over at an equally poor rate as TCU, and this team specifically struggles in 2pt FG%. The Pirates shoot the 3-ball considerably better than TCU does, but I don’t necessarily expect that to show up early in this game as these teams feel out an unfamiliar environment in San Diego. Pace is on our side as well; TCU ranks just 244th in that department, while Seton Hall has reverted to a considerably slower pace since losing Bryce Aiken. There is way too much pointing towards an ugly 1st Half for me to lay off of this; any 1H total at or above 59.5 warrants a play here.

*CBB(1u): Seton Hall PK(-110) vs TCU–8:57 PM CT

Building off of what I said above, Seton Hall does shoot the 3-ball over 3 percentage points better than TCU, which should play a factor in this game as these teams settle in. In a pick-em type spot like this, there are 2 key factors swinging LARGELY in Seton Hall’s direction. First, the Pirates are the far more experienced team, ranking 21st in that department. TCU is a young team that ranks just 308th in continuity. Second(and certainly not least), Seton Hall shoots their free-throws at an astronomically higher rate. TCU hits their foul shots at a mere 66.8% clip, while Seton Hall is very strong in that area, making 76% of their foul shots. I’m also inclined to believe that TCU is being a bit overvalued after a few late season heroic performances at home; especially for a young team, I can’t trust them to carry that over to the West Coast tonight. Seton Hall warrants a play at this pick-em price.

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