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Premiums, 3.1 (off a 5-0 Night)!

By
Chris R. Farley
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Are we all having fun yet? We went 5-0 last night and we’ve won over 10 units the past 2 nights alone. If your bankrolls are exploding, as they should, well, donations are always welcome. Just kidding, kinda…

Trying my hardest to keep the same mentality and the same routines amidst the success. Onto the first day of March, where there’s not as much value but we like a few angles in a few contests.
NBA Picks:
  • Hawks/Celtics over 224.5, 1 unit
    • To be honest, I’m not sure where this total is going to move. I wouldn’t be surprised if it shifted up or down, but at this number I have to like the over. Despite the insane defense Boston has been playing, both of these teams are so gifted on the offensive end. The Hawks and Celtics are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the association and they’ve averaged a combined 232 ppg in the last 15 games. All 3 previous games have been defensive battles – I have this game going to 228.
  • Nets/Raptors over 219.5, 1.5 units
    • Apparently I like some overs today. Last night revealed some clear mismatches on both sides of the ball between these two teams, most notably for the Raptors’ defense. The Nets guards didn’t shoot well but they’ll be due for some position regression tonight. I like this game to go over in Toronto, whether Kyrie plays or not. I have it at 225.
  • Take the Lakers if this line goes to 6 or more, 1 unit
    • So here’s the thing: I hate everything about the current version of the Lakers. LeBron is selling out his team, they looked HORRENDOUS 2 nights ago against New Orleans at home, and they really don’t match up very well against the Mavericks. BUT – this is professional sports. These are professional athletes, who have emotional swings and get motivated and unmotivated frequently. LAL was absolutely embarrassed 2 days ago and there’s a lot of people fading them. As ugly as it is, THESE ARE THE SPOTS where you should play ON those teams, especially when you (still) have arguably the best basketball player in the world on your team. Wait for this to rise and if it goes to +6 or more, hit it for 1 unit.
CBB Picks (all 1 unit): 
  • Providence +9.5 (line is too high)
  • Pittsburgh +14.5 (sleepy spot for Duke)
  • Purdue -3 (Wisconsin, I just don’t believe in you)
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris

NHL Preview & Picks – February 28th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have a small slate of games tonight in the NHL, with just three games taking place. I didn’t have time to do a full writeup today, but I’ll try my best to get one out for tomorrow’s games. With the limited amount of games, I only have one pick tonight.

 

PICK #1: TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ WASHINGTON CAPITALS OVER 6.0 (-130) 

The total for this game is listed at 6.5 (-110) on most major books. However, Pointsbet and Caesars have it listed at 6.0. In this scenario I don’t mind laying the extra juice to give us an option for a push.

In Toronto’s last 10 games, they’re averaging 3.90 Goals For and 3.70 Goals Against. On the season, they’re averaging 3.65 Goals For (4th) and 2.85 Goals Against (14th). Jack Campbell will not get the start in net tonight as he’s struggled recently. In the Maple Leafs last game Campbell was actually pulled when they were winning, which is something you don’t see often. To be fair, it was a crazy game against Detroit that seemed like every shot was going in. Peter Mrazek will start for Toronto tonight, who’s coming off a solid game against Minnesota in his last start. Prior to that game, he struggled against Montreal and Vancouver. In his last 5 starts, he’s allowed 3 or more goals in three of them (1-5-3-3-1).

The Leafs will face off against a Washington squad that’s 5-5 in their last 10. They ‘re returning from a four game road trip where they went 2-2. In the Capitals last 10 games, they’re averaging 3.30 Goals For and 2.90 Goals Against. Ilya Samsonov will get the start in net tonight for the Caps with Vanecek still out. He hasn’t been great in his past five games allowing 2-4-3-1-4 goals against. Samsonov only allowed two goals in his last outing but faced just 22 shots. Toronto ranks 7th in terms of Shots on Goal For so he should see close to 30 tonight.

While the Leafs will most likely not repeat their performance of 10 goals in their last game, they should be able to score at least 3-4. Their offense has been much better as of late, with their defense struggling. The Capitals should be able to get their offense going tonight against the Leafs, so I think this game goes over.

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

2 Free Premium Picks (1 NBA, 1 CBB) for Monday, February 28th

By
Nick Hub
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Feb 12, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns guard Marcus Carr (2) moves to the basket against Baylor Bears forward Jeremy Sochan (1) during the first half at Ferrell Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Were back at it everyone!! I am giving out both premium plays for free as we gear up for the Madness with March already here tomorrow!! BOL if you tail!

Sign up now for my  All Access Sides Subscription exclusively at the OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!

The Chicago Bulls go on the road to take on the home Miami Heat. The Heat come into this Eastern Conference matchup with a home record of 20-7 while going 40-21 overall. The Heat is also 29-14 as a favorite this season and are 34-27 against the spread overall this season. The Bulls are 39-22 overall, and are 6-15 as an underdog. Miami took care of business in the previous matchup as a +2 point dog, winning outright 118-92. The Heat are scorching the nets on three pointers, ranking 3rd in offensive 3P% and the Bulls defense ranks a lowly 26th in opponent three point percentage. The Bulls defense also ranks low at 22nd in opponent FG%, the Heat are a great true shooting team and defend better than what Chicago does. Miami ranks 5th in points allowed, 5th in opponent FG% and 2nd in total rebounding. Chicago does put up a fight against their opponents for offensive rebounds, therefore the battle of those boards will be crucial. The Heat are the overall better rebounding and defensive team, the Heat should be able to win and cover this spread at home by continuing to defend and shoot the ball effectively. This game could come down to three point shooting, FTs and offensive rebounding. Take Miami -3.5

Baylor goes on the road to take on in-state foe and Big 12 conference opponent Texas. The Longhorns are hosting the Baylor Bears of Waco in a big time show down for conference tournament seeding implications. The Bears are currently 24-5 overall with a 4-6 record against the spread in their last ten games played, their injuries and depth issues are starting to show. Baylor is also 6-7 against the spread on the road. The Longhorns come into this game 21-8, 7-3 in their last ten games played and are 16-2 in their home games in Austin this year while going 9-8-1 against the spread in those games. This will be a revenge game for the Longhorns, as Baylor won the first matchup in Waco by 17 points on Feb 12th.  A game that Texas only shot 33% from the field and was outrebounded 41-26. Look for the shooting to improve and the rebounding to even out in this one.  Texas ranks Top-20 in offensive two point percentage, FG%, and free throw percentage. Additionally, the Longhorns own a +17.8 point differential at home while the Bears have a +4.3 differential on the road this season.  With Baylor coming off a huge win at home vs Kansas and Texas just escaping with a win at West Virginia this weekend, this looks like an excellent situational play on the Longhorns.  Take Texas +1.5

February 28th CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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In addition to this CBB free play, I also have 2 NBA plays that are reserved for premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.6% clip and have netted my members +50.15u since September 2021. Click here to become a premium member as we gear up for an epic March!

*CBB(1u): Texas Tech -12.5(-110) vs Kansas State–8 PM CT

Texas Tech came back down to Earth on Saturday with a loss at TCU(I called this on Friday’s podcast), but they’ll return back home in a role they’ve excelled in all year. Since January 1st(start of conference play), the Red Raiders are undefeated at home and have won by an average of 15.5 PPG. Only 1 of those games stayed within single digits, an early season matchup with 1 seed Kansas; they still won that game by 8. With the best defense in college basketball, an offense that can be streaky, and a rabid fanbase, it’s not hard to see why the Red Raiders are so good on their home floor. Kansas State can be a sneaky team, but I’d have to wonder how they respond tonight after 3 straight losses, which has put the Wildcats out of Tournament contention. The ‘Cats can compete with the middle-tier of the Big 12, but on the road against the upper-echelon of that conference, they lost by 19 at Kansas and by 25 at Baylor. Here on Senior Night, I think the Red Raiders take care of business.

February 28th NBA Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*NBA(1.5u): Grizzlies -8.5(-110) vs Spurs–7 PM CT

This is a good spot for Memphis with this being their first home game back after the All Star Break. Being that they don’t play again until Thursday, we should get a really good effort out of a team that already plays hard in every game. For the Spurs, however, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, with all of these games coming on the road. They played a double-overtime game in Washington that saw 310(!) points scored before playing another high-scoring game in Miami the next night. San Antonio hasn’t played a home game since February 4th, and I would imagine they are itching to get back in their home arena. Memphis has handled the Spurs in each of these teams’ two prior matchups, and I don’t see why that changes here tonight. In a tough spot, I think the Spurs flame out down the stretch and allow the Grizzlies to pull away by double digits. 

*NBA(1u): Bucks TT OVER 124.5(-115) vs Hornets–7 PM CT

Charlotte is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. For example, they beat the Raptors by 32 on Friday night and then immediately lost at home to the lowly Pistons last night. This will be the second game of a back-to-back, and it is worth mentioning that last night’s game went to OT. Being that the Hornets rank 21st in defensive efficiency, the Bucks should have their way in this one. While Milwaukee is 0-2 since the All Star Break, they did break the 120 mark in matchups against the 76ers(very impressive) and the Nets. This team still ranks 5th in offensive efficiency overall this season and also runs with quite a but of pace. Charlotte also runs at the fastest pace in the league, meaning Milwaukee should have plenty of possessions at their disposal in this classic “bounce back” spot. Quite frankly, I think Milwaukee looks sharp from start to finish and gets into the 130’s. 

NBA Free Pick from FarleyBets: Raptors at Nets- February 28, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Toronto Raptors play the Brooklyn Nets

 

Things are going well for us so we haven’t changed a modicum of our habits or routines – we’re hitting at an unprecedented 58% for a second year in a row in NBA Picks and we’re already over 80 units. I can’t compare my records to every pro NBA bettor across the planet, but something tells me very few (if any) are performing at this level. Click here for my premium packages every day, directly to your inbox! Onto my play!

Raptors -3.5 (-110), 1.5 units: Well the Raptors certainly haven’t hit their post-all-star-break stride just yet, losing 2 of their first games by margin, but we expect some positive regression from Toronto and there’s plenty to suggest we’re right. Let’s take a look at some of the Raptors’ marks from Jan 1 to right before the break:

  • Offensive Efficiency Rating: 9th
  • Defensive Efficiency Rating: 10th
  • Net Rating: 8th
  • Offensive Rebound Percentage: 2nd
  • Rebounding Rate: 8th

Now let’s look at some data in their first 2 games back to action after the All-Star-break:

  • Offensive Efficiency Rating: 28th
  • Defensive Efficiency Rating: 29th
  • Net Rating: 29th
  • Offensive Rebound Percentage: 16th
  • Rebounding Rate: 23rd

I chose the rebounding data specifically because we know that’s where Toronto thrives. They have a significant length advantage against most NBA teams and they’re usually great at taking advantage of it. Second-chance opportunities and short-range, effective buckets are how the Raptors make their money. Tonight they’ll go up against a Brooklyn team that’s fresh off a big win against Milwaukee on the road (a nod to Kyrie, who put in one HECK of a performance Saturday). And while the Nets’ big 3 won’t play tonight, Brooklyn has been frisky lately. Drummond adds a significant presence in the front court as a shot-blocker, rebounder and physical force at the rim, and Seth Curry, Patty Mills and others have contributed to efficient shooting from the perimeter. That’s all fine and I give credit to Brooklyn for where they stand now amidst all the drama and volatility on their roster, but this is a MUCH better spot for Toronto. The Nets are also performing well-above average lately and we expect their marks to drop: Brooklyn is bottom third in the NBA in offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, rebounding rate and net rating in their last 15 games.

It’s a misconception that Toronto isn’t as good on the road. At times they may not be as crisp, but they’re still covering 58.6% of their away matchups (17-12-1). This is a weird schedule spot (they’ll face the Nets, at home, in a back-to-back tomorrow night) but the Raptors need to win and capitalize on a more shallow Nets roster. Nick Nurse is one of the least celebrated, sharpest minds in the NBA. He’s proven that year-to-year with rosters that shouldn’t have won as much as they did. His team will button up tonight.

Toronto has been without OG Anunoby, which hasn’t been ideal for their output, and Freddie VanFleet is working through knee issues. Neither of those intangibles are ideal, but the Raptors have enough firepower and long-talent to overcome those challenges. I expect a big game from Gary Trent Jr., who’s been sensational this season, a typically solid performance from Pascal Siakam, and a well-coached Raptors team to get-right tonight against Brooklyn on the road.

Rob Vinciletti: Mondday NCAAB Pick and Preview

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Monday card led by the NBA Western Conference Game Of The Month and our 2X Perfect Top Play NCAAB Total. NCAAB Colonial conf. Play below.
 
The Colonial Conference Play is on College of Charleston at 7:00 eastern. Charleston and Hofstra end their regular season schedule here tonight and the Cougars are a live dog here as they are a last game revenge with a winning record taking on a team like Hofstra that comes in off a home win. The Pride though have failed to cover the last 7 at home as well as 5 of 6 off a spread loss and the last 4 on Mondays. Charleston has covered 7 of the last 9 as a dog along with 4 of 5 vs a winning team and the last 4 playing off a loss. Look for Charleston to get the cover here. On Monday we have another Powerful card up with a 2X Perfect NCAAB Totals Top play and in the NBA The Western Conference Game of the Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we start the week big. For the Colonial Conf. Play take the Points with the Cougars. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Premiums, 2.28

By
Chris R. Farley
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The Jokic prop failed us but a 3-0 result otherwise Sunday! Let’s keep cruising in the NBA (we’re at 58% and over 80 units now for the season), and tread with caution in CBB. Onto the picks!

NBA Picks:
  • T-Wolves/Cavs over 220, 1 unit
    • The problem with this total is simple – I think the Timberwolves will set the tone and establish the pace tonight. Without Garland and now without LaVert, who’s proven to be an offensive commodity, Cleveland isn’t as effective on either side of the court. The Cavs will want to slow this down but I don’t think Minnesota lets them – they thrive when the game is fast-paced and enabling their young athleticism.
  • Raptors -3.5, 1.5 units
    • Well Toronto certainly hasn’t come out of the break on fire but now they desperately need a win and this is an opponent they can beat. The Nets have shown some moxy, even without their big 3, but Toronto’s length and increased motivation should be a problem tonight for Brooklyn. The Raptors’ have looked BAD in their first 2 games back, and without OG Anunoby and a healthy VanFleet, it’s understandable they’d have some challenges. I think they bounce back in a big way tonight. Give me the Raptors to get back to basics and cover on the road.
  • Bucks 1H -5.5, 2 units
    • And this is the kind of spot where you play on the Bucks, a great team, a championship contender, with arguably the best all-around player in the world, after a bad loss. The full game line (-10) is a bit high, although I’d lean that way, too. This is a bet that Milwaukee will come out ON FIRE after their humbling loss to Brooklyn. All Bucks for me.
  • Kings -4.5, 1 unit
    • This is as ugly as it gets, I know, but OKC is without Dort and Josh GIddey, two players that have become essential to their success. The Kings should be able to out-pace and out-score the Thunder here, even with their lackluster defense.
CBB Picks (kill me):
  • Baylor/Texas 1H under 63, 1 unit
    • I expect this to be a BATTLE between two elite teams. Let’s avoid the chance for the end-game fouls and take the 1H under instead.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris

The Deeper Dive with Michael Fordham–Monday, February 28th NBA Breakdowns

By
Michael Fordham
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0:00—Intro

2:33—Timberwolves vs Cavaliers

7:16—Bulls vs Heat

13:08—Raptors vs Nets

19:17—Hornets vs Bucks

24:18—Spurs vs Grizzlies

29:35—Outro

All of Michael’s information—> https://linktr.ee/fordhamsportsgambling

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