It’s the final slate of games before a nice break from NBA action (lord knows I need it). Fortunately, we’ve been on a tear that just hasn’t stopped! We’re 29-14 (67%) the last 17 days in NBA bets, and we won 42 units since Jan 1. Can’t hate on that! If you want my premium picks delivered to your inbox every day for a discounted rate (I’m giving away HUGE discounts for the rest of the NBA season), hit this link! Onto the free pick!
Sixers +6.5 (-110), 1.5 units: On paper this pick probably doesn’t make sense. That’s okay- we like it when public perception goes against us. The NBA is, as you’re probably all-too-aware, a very emotionally volatile league. Ups and downs and situational intangibles and inconsistent motivation are some of the prime factors you must consider when you’re handicapping NBA games. And we saw it plainly last night. As I implied on Twitter prior to tipoff, Wednesday was full of big favorites who had very little motivation heading into the All-Star break. And what happened?
The Rockets covered, and the Nets, Pistons, Lakers, and Blazers all won straight up. All dogs. All winners.
Tonight feels like a similar setup. Philadelphia is one game off an incredibly embarrassing loss, at home, against their division rival 2 nights ago. The Celtics won that game by an insane 48 points. YIKES. Yet these are the kinds of situations we like to capitalize on.
Boston was only 2 point favorites in that contest, and the Celtics have been surging. Now, 2 nights later, the same team is nearly 7 point dogs to a Bucks squad that can’t figure out how to play defense yet? Na- this is lined wrong.
Milwaukee is a little banged up and they’re coming off a solid win against the Pacers on Tuesday. They’re still one of the best teams in the NBA and they’re my pick to win the East once again, but this spot isn’t as ideal for them. If anything, the Bucks need to get healthy, get some rest, and figure out some better schemes on defense. They’re absolutely not in playoff form at this juncture in the season.
I expect Embiid and the Sixers to be locked in tonight. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a 50 point game and I expect him to cool off (I guess that’s the only option, isn’t it?), and Embiid is one of the only big-men that can slow down the Greek-freak. I expect a big game from Embiid after such a disappointing performance 2 nights ago.
New Orleans Pelicans guard CJ McCollum (3) plays against the Miami Heat in the second half of an NBA basketball game in New Orleans, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Derick Hingle)
In addition to this free play, I’m also rolling with 2 plays for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57% clip and have netted my members +44.2u since September 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
*NBA(1u): Pelicans +2.5(-110) vs Mavericks–7 PM CT
Dallas enters this game off of an impressive road win against the Heat, but I’m expecting this Dallas team to start regressing here in the near future. They are without a volume scorer in Tim Hardaway Jr and obviously traded away Kristaps Porzingis at the Deadline, and I’m still not sold that they found the right mix of guys to counteract those guys being out of the rotation. Since trading for CJ McCollum, the Pelicans have immediately turned things around on the offensive end of the floor; over their past 3 games, the Pels rank 6th in offensive efficiency. New Orleans is a team that is still playing catch-up after their brutal start to the season, and with this being their 6th straight home game, I think they can catch the Mavericks napping here in the final game before the All-Star Break. The Pelicans have beaten Dallas once this season, and with CJ McCollum now paired up with Brandon Ingram, I think the Pelicans have more than enough to match up with a Dallas team that is really centered around one guy at the moment.
*CBB(1u): Penn State -5.5(-110) vs Minnesota–3 PM CT
Penn State matched up with Minnesota this past Saturday, with the home Gophers pulling out an impressive win late. Not only does that make this a quick revenge spot for Penn State, but the Nittany Lions are also riding high off of a home win against Michigan State just 2 nights ago. This is a horrible spot for Minnesota with this being their second straight road game; over their past 4 road games, the Gophers have lost all 4 by an average of 14 PPG, including a double-digit loss to lowly Nebraska in this same “2nd straight road game” spot. I like Penn State to build off of that Michigan State win and blow Minnesota out of the water today.
*ML Parlay(1u): Penn State, Nets(+120)–3 PM CT
Penn State explanation above.
The Nets seemed to be dead in the water against the Knicks last night before crawling all the way back from 20 points down to win it late. While this is a back-to-back for Brooklyn, Washington is also on a back-to-back and enter this game with the travel disadvantage. Without Bradley Beal in the lineup, this Wizards team is in total disarray. These teams met just last week, with the Wizards pulling out a 1 point home win. Since that last matchup, the Nets stock has been trending upwards, while the Wizards continue to be pathetic(lost @ Indiana last night). The Nets seem to have a new energy about them since trading James Harden, and I think they carry that momentum in from last night and put away the Wizards in this one.
Thursday card led by the NBA Pre Break Play of the year, the NHL Game of The Month and an Executive Level Tier 1 Top play along with afternoon soccer. Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Samford at 8:00 eastern. Sammy will Ca Ching here tonight as they have 19 point loss revenge on Virginia Military. Samford is off a pair of dog win over East Tennessee. St and Wofford and will take on a VMI Defense that is ranked 267th and off an upset loss at home to the Citadel., The Bulldogs have covered the last 4 vs winning teams and 4 of 5 at home. In the series the favorite has covered 4 straight with the home team on a 4-1 spread run. When it rains it pours for VMI. Look for Samford to serve up revenge. On Thursday a Powerful card is up and backed by an Executive Level TIER 1 Move, the NBA Pre Break Game of the year and the NHL Triple perfect Game Of The Month. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and cash out. For the Comp play go with Samford. Rob Vinciletti- Golden Contender Sports
It’s the final slate of games before a week-long All-Star break. Do we need it? Probably. But this HEATER (4-1 last night, 29-14 the last 17 days) just keeps going; I don’t want this shit to stop!
I’ll be CBB and UFC focused heading into the weekend, with maybe a look at some fun NBA All-Star bets, too. Until then, let’s surge into the NBA holiday with more fookin’ wins!
NBA Picks:
Nets TT over 110.5 *
These are two tired teams heading into the break and the Nets just have way more offensive firepower in this one. Even without their big 3, Mills, Curry, Aldridge, Claxton and company should be able to score at will against a Washington defense that’s regressed, ranked 23rd in DEF EFF since Jan 1 and without a ton of players heading into this contest.
Mavericks -3 **
Dallas has really impressed me lately. It doesn’t seem to matter who they’ve lost or what spot they’re in, they just keep winning. Players like Brunson and Green and Finney-Smith have stepped up nicely, and Spencer Dinwiddie grants them a nice spark off the bench. New Orleans is in a tough spot here, even at home, since it’s their 3rd game in 4 nights. Luka rolls, Dallas rolls.
76ers +7 *
Nothing should be more motivating than getting embarrassed and blown out at home by an arch rival, and that’s exactly what happened to Philadelphia Tuesday night. Are the Bucks the better team? Yes. Do they have clearly better talent, especially since Philly is still without Harden? Yes. But pride and mental fortitude is a thing in sports and the 76ers should be more locked in tonight against another big Eastern Conference giant. I handicapped this game at Bucks -6, so I don’t see a ton of value here, but I gotta play on the Sixers after that horrendous performance 2 nights ago.
CBB Picks:
Oregon State TT under 62.5 *
Arizona has one of the best, if not THE best defenses in the nation. Oregon State’s offense is abysmal. I’ll take my chances here.
Towson -3 **
The Towson offense should be way too much for UNC Wilmington, especially with UNCW’s lack of resistance beyond the arc.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael looks at 6 different CBB teams and identifies whether he’s “buying” or “selling” them as we approach the stretch run of the season!
Following up a small four game slate of games on Wednesday, we have 10 games going tonight in the NHL. There’s a few solid matchups tonight and also some not so exciting games. I’ll breakdown one of the better games between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Toronto Maple Leafs and offer a few other picks for tonight. Let’s get into it!
Toronto Maple Leafs: 31-12-3, 3rd Atlantic (17-4-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Pittsburgh Penguins
+175
+130
+1.5 (-190)
o6.5 (-105)
Toronto Maple Leafs
+120
-150
-1.5 (+160)
u6.5 (-115)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 6 games.
Pittsburgh are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto’s last 8 games.
Toronto are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at home.
Previous Matchups:
October 23, 2021: Toronto 1 @ Pittsburgh 7
PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 6.0 (+100/-120)
November 20, 2021: Pittsburgh 2 @ Toronto 0
PIT (+140), TOR (-160), O/U 5.5 (-115/-105)
Preview:
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins limped into the All-Star break losing four games in a row but have returned from the break red hot winning four straight. They most recently defeated the Philadelphia Flyers 5-4 in OT on Tuesday with Sidney Crosby scoring his 500th career goal in that matchup. They’ll take on the Maple Leafs tonight before returning home to take on the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh ranks 9th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.34 but, in their last 10 are only averaging 3.20. However, since returning from break they’re averaging 3.75 goals for per game. Despite the slight down tick in goals in their last 10, they’ve been averaging more shots for in their last 10 (34.70) compared to their season average of 34.60. Their Power Play ranks 11th converting at a rate of 22.1% but have been much better as of late. In their last 10 games, Pittsburgh Power Play is converting at a rate of 30.43%.
If you’re looking to target player props for tonight I would start with Pittsburgh’s leading scorer, Jake Guentzel. He’s recorded at least a point in his last 10 games, totaling 5 goals and 9 assists. Crosby has also been on a hot streak as of late recording at least a point in his last 7 games totaling 3 goals and 9 assists. Other players for Pittsburgh who you can look to target for player props are Kris Letang and Bryan Rust.
Defensively, the Penguins are tied for third in allowing the least goals against per game averaging 2.54. In their last 10, they’ve been slightly better averaging 2.50. During their four game winning streak, they’ve been much better with an average of 2.00 goals against per game. They rank 9th in terms of shots on goal against averaging 30.2 per game but, have been averaging two shots fewer in their last 10. The Penguins Penalty Kill ranks 2nd in the NHL with a rate of 87.7% and have only allowed one goal on the man advantage in their last four (10 attempts).
All-Star Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start to the Penguins tonight. He has a +15.6 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year in his 39 games played. In Jarry’s last five starts he’s allowed 2-2-3-4-4 goals against. He’s started both games against Toronto and has only allowed one goal against in those matchups.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs return from a three game road trip where they lost twice (Calgary, Vancouver) and won once. Their most recent game was that win, where they defeated Seattle 6-2. They return home tonight after a day off to take on a surging Pittsburgh Penguins, a team that’s beaten them in both of their previous matchups. Toronto currently sits in third place in the Atlantic division but will need to step it up if they look to keep pace with Florida and Tampa Bay.
Offensively, Toronto ranks 4th in terms of goals for per game averaging 3.59. In their last 10, the offense has come alive averaging 4.30 goals for per game. They’ve been averaging more shots on goal as of late which has provided them with some much needed additional scoring chances as they don’t have the best shooting %. Obviously ranking 10th in Shooting % isn’t awful, but this team needs to continually put up goals if they want to have a shot in games. Toronto’s Power Play ranks 1st in the NHL and will face a great PK tonight, which should make for an exciting matchup.
In terms of player props for Toronto, again, start with their leading scorer Austin Matthews. He’s on a nine game point streak tallying 8 goals and 10 assists during that stretch. William Nylander and John Tavares are both on four game point streaks as well. However, a guy I like is Mitch Marner. He struggled during the beginning portion of the season but, has really turned it on as of late so look out for him tonight.
In terms of defense, the Maple Leafs rank 6th in goals allowed with an average of 2.70. In their last 10 games, they’ve been much worse averaging 3.20 goals against. Oddly enough, they’ve been averaging fewer shots against in those games, as compared to their season average. Their Penalty Kill ranks 6th with a success rate of 83.8%. However, in their last 10, that percentage has dropped to 69.57%. Both of these teams are extremely disciplined so I don’t expect to see many special teams chances. That being said, in their two pervious matchups there’s been a total of 13 Power Plays combined but, only one of those was converted upon. So definitely stay away from Power Play points props in this game.
Jack Campbell who was also an All-Star, is expected to get the start in net for the Maple Leafs. He started the season great but, has regressed a bit. Even with that regression, he still has a +8.8 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year. He also started in both those losses to the Penguins early in the year where he allowed 5 and 2 goals against. In the first matchup he was actually pulled but, faired much better in the second.
Pick:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS OVER 6.0 (-125) – PointsBet
I’m going to take this line now, as all of the other books have moved this line to 6.5. This is mainly based on getting some CLV for this game and allow us a chance to push if we need it. Looking at this game, it’s extremely tough to cap as Pittsburgh has been surging lately but, on the other hand you rarely see a team lose three straight matchups to an opponent. This will be last time these teams meet this year so I’m very tempted to take Toronto, instead I’m going to opt for some CLV and take the total now.
Other Plays on the Night:
WASHINGTON CAPITALS/ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS 1P OVER 1.5 (-135) – DK
In Last 10, WSH 1.00 GF/ 0.90 GA and PHI 0.90 GF/ 1.40 GA in the 1P. Martin Jones expected to get his first start since January 25. He hasn’t been great at all this season allowing 4-4-3-3 in his last four starts.
NEW YORK RANGERS/ DETROIT RED WINGS 1P OVER 1.5 (-140) – DK
In Last 10, NYR 1.00 GF/ 1.20 GA and DET 1.00 GF/ 1.00 GA in the 1P. DET struggles in the 1P on the road while NYR are solid at home in the 1P. Nedeljkovic has struggled as of late so I think the NYR can get two themselves early here. I would also look at NYR 1P -0.5 (+135) if you’re interested.
ST. LOUIS BLUES 1P -0.5 (+115) – DK
Montreal is awful when it comes to starting hot. They’re 0-3 in terms of 1P money lines in their last 3. They start slow, in their last 10 they’re averaging 0.30 GF and 2.00 GA. In STL last 10, they’re averaging 1.40 GF and 1.40 GA. While the 1P Over 1.5 (-150) can also be a play here, I like STL to grab an early lead. MTL is still getting accustomed to Martin St. Louis’ playing style while STL is looking to make a post season push. Sam Montembeault is also expected to get the start who hasn’t been great this season for MTL with Husso expected to get the start for STL.
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Seeing this total pushed up to 131.5 in some books and I agree as the Ramblers are a little higher paced than years past under their old coach. The concern here is can Valpo score, and the total here perhaps a little trappy, set much lower than their previous matchup in Chicago which was 138. However, Valpo ranked second in the MVC at 15-8 O/U overall, the number 1 over team in conference games at 10-3 O/U, much of that is likely due to their 245th rating in defensive efficiency. Loyola-Chicago at 8-5 O/U in conference play, 14-9 O/U on the season, 31st in offensive efficiency, this team can score. Both average right around this total but last matchup flew over…I like the over for a small play tonight, even at the 131.5.
We have a small slate of games tonight in the NHL but, they feature some incredible matchups. The Minnesota Wild take on the Winnipeg Jets in a Central Division clash. Florida travels to Carolina to take on the Hurricanes, Anaheim takes on Tyler Toffoli and the surging Flames and then our marquee game of the night. The Colorado Avalanche against the Vegas Golden Knights with Jack Eichel making his debut for the squad. It should be a great night of hockey so let’s get into it and find some winners.
Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Colorado Avalanche: 34-9-4, 1st Central (13-6-2 Away)
Vegas Golden Knights: 28-17-3, 2nd Pacific (14-10-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Colorado Avalanche
-115
-140
-1.5 (+190)
o6.5 (-125)
Vegas Golden Knights
-105
+120
+1.5 (-235)
u6.5 (+105)
Trends:
Under is 5-0 in Avalanche last 5 overall.
Avalanche are 5-0 in their last 5 road games.
Over is 4-0 in Golden Knights last 4 home games.
Preview:
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are coming off a 4-1 loss against the Dallas Stars last night where Jake Oettinger had one of his best performances of the season finishing with a +3.7 GSAx. Colorado had 4.7 xG’s compared to Dallas’ 3.98. This was a tough spot for them as they had just beaten Dallas two nights prior 4-0. Even with that loss Colorado is 8-1-1 in their last 10 and remain one of the hottest teams in the NHL. The Avalanche are 4-0-1 on no days rest and 2-0 after a loss, so something to note.
On the year Colorado is 2nd in term of Goals For per game averaging 4.00. However, in their last 10 they haven’t been as good only averaging 3.30. They only average 0.10 Goals For lower on the road so that’s not a major concern in this matchup. In addition to goals, the Avalanche have been generating less shots on goal in their last 10 averaging 30.60 which is roughly 5 shots less per game than their season average. Colorado’s Power Play ranks 10th converting at a rate of 23.8%. Nathan MacKinnon returned from his concussion a few games ago and has tallied a point in each of his games back.
Defensively, Colorado has been much better in their last 10 averaging 1.90 Goals Against per game compared to their season average of 2.85. They’re giving up an average of 30.6 Shots on Goal Against which ranks 11th. Surprisingly, in their last 10 that number hasn’t really changed at all, it’s mainly due to their goaltending. Colorado’s Penalty Kill continues to struggle ranking 22nd. That being said, they have been much better as of late with the only outlier coming in their most recent game against the Stars.
With Pavel Francouz starting last night, Darcy Kuemper will get the nod in net tonight for the Av’s. He’s been their main starter all season and has a +12.9 GSAx on the year. In his last five starts he’s allowed 0-2-2-1-3 goals against.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are coming off a massive layoff with their last game taking place on February 9th. They lost 6-0 to the Flames in that matchup and will look to rebound here tonight. They faced the Avalanche earlier this season defeating them 3-1.
Offensively, the Vegas Golden Knights are averaging 3.29 Goals For Per game which ranks 10th. However in their last 10 games, that number has dropped significantly and are only averaging 2.60 Goals For per game. They rank 8th in terms of Shots on Goal but have been below that number in recent games. Their Power Play ranks 19th but have only scored one goal on the man advantage in their last 7 games (17 attempts). As previously mentioned Jack Eichel is poised to make his debut for the team and is expected to be on a line with Max Pacioretty and Evgenii Dadonov. With Jack Eichel returning to the ice, the Golden Knights had to place Mark Stone on long term IR to fit under the salary cap requirements.
Vegas ranks 19th in Goals Against per game allowing an average of 2.96. In their last 10 games, they’ve been around the same number so it’s not really note worthy. They’ve done a great job of limiting opponents shots against and will need to do it again tonight. Their Penalty Kill ranks 17th in the NHL and will be in for a test against the Av’s. The Golden Knights will be without Zach Whitecloud and Alec Martinez who remain on IR.
Laurent Brossoit is expected to be the starter for the Golden Knights tonight with Robin Lehner out. Brossoit has been good this year with a +4.2 GSAx. His last start was against Calgary on February 8th where he recorded a shutout.
Pick:
COLORADO AVALANCHE ml (-132) – FANDUEL
I’m going to stay away from the total in this matchup based off the offensive inconsistency both teams are having as of late. The Avalanche have shown that they can rebound quickly and rarely lose two games in a row. They face Vegas’ backup goalie in Brossoit, who’s not bad by the way, and a depleted defensive unit. Kuemper will be back in net tonight and I think the Av’s rally here to set the tone for a team they’ll likely face in the playoffs.
Other Plays on the Night:
CALGARY FLAMES/ ANAHEIM DUCKS OVER 5.5 (-114) – FANDUEL
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
In my opinion, Texas Tech is at their peak as far as value goes at this point in the season. This Red Raiders team wasn’t projected to be as good as they have been, and you certainly have to tip your cap to Mark Adams for the job he has done in Year 1. That being said, I think this team is going to have their fair share of struggles as they close out their conference schedule. The Red Raiders were blown out at Oklahoma last week and trailed to a mediocre TCU at Halftime on Saturday before kicking things into gear in the 2nd Half. While Tech plays elite defense, they leave a lot to be desired on the offensive end of the floor(59th in offensive efficiency). Baylor is still a bit short-handed, but this Baylor team still comes in at #3 in my power ratings. They are fresh off a 17-point home win against Texas and have a much easier time creating points than Tech does. What is overlooked about this Baylor team is that they defend really well, ranking #12 in defensive efficiency. Over their past two road games, Baylor has been uncompetitive against Alabama and Baylor. That said, this type of environment is starting to become familiar to them, and I think a team with as much pedigree as them finds a way to pull through tonight. I understand why Tech is favored, but I think this is a great time to sell high on the Red Raiders and back a top 5 team in Baylor.
