DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 03: Will Barton #5 of the Denver Nuggets brings the ball down the court against the Miami Heat at the Pepsi Center on November 3, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
517 Magic at Nuggets 1Q OV 55*
We have a mid-range total here as the books are adjusting to the possibility of a sluggish start the day after the Super Bowl. The Magic are trending 7-3 O/U L10 in the 1st quarter on the road and the Nuggets 9-1 O/U L10 1Q at home. We have the first quarter and first half less than the full game total and I want to take advantage as the trends favor the over.
I look for this young Magic team to try and steal a win (or at least a cover) tonight by coming out pushing initially. And although the Nuggets are a good defensive team, the Magic tend toward the under on the season because the go through scoring droughts. Orlando’s tendency towards the under and the market pushing this one down will keep this as a small one unit play for me tonight. However, in my opinion, questionable motivation spots in the NBA has led to less defense, I’ll look for an early 1st quarter over.
Check out more of my Patreon plays, where I am a modest +3.31 units in February but looking to get on a run!
Sorry about all the back and forth but there’s reverse line movement on the Nuggets so I’m officially OFF that game. You should be able to get your money back no problem, since the line hasn’t really moved since we bet it. Thanks, –Chris
The Knicks have NO business being this big of a favorite, especially without RJ Barrett.
Warriors -6.5 **
Golden State allowed LAL to play way too close recently – this should be an all-hands-on-deck game for Curry, Klay and the gang against an LAC offense that’s extremely under-talented in comparison. I’d take it up to -7.5
Nuggets -10.5 **
All chalk today but this is what Denver does – they LOVE blowing out bad teams. Orlando is banged up too; this number isn’t too high for me. I’d take it up to 11.5.
In addition to this free play, I have 2 NBA plays reserved for my premium members, one of which is a rare 2u play. I’m currently on an 11-2 NBA run, and my premium plays have hit at a 57.3% clip since starting in September 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member, and let’s have a hot start to the week!
*CBB(1u): Virginia/Virginia Tech OVER 118.5(-110)–6 PM CT
Typically, I don’t like playing Over’s this low the same way I don’t like playing Under’s on high totals. However, considering how each team enters tonight’s game, I think this is a bad number put out by the oddsmakers. Virginia Tech is on fire right now offensively, averaging 77.5 PPG in their current 5 game win streak. This recent success has the Hokies all the way up to 19th in offensive efficiency, and they’ll face a Virginia defense that is a lot more vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor than we’re used to seeing with a Tony Bennett coached team. That said, Virginia seems to have turned a corner offensively themselves. They’ve moved up 30 spots in my offensive efficiency ratings over the past few weeks and enter tonight having won 5 of their last 6. Virginia runs at the slowest pace in the country, while Virginia Tech ranks just 343rd in pace, so I can understand why this total is so low. However, Virginia is 6-1 to the Over on the road in conference play this season, and I think we see that trend continue tonight. I wouldn’t make plays like these a habit, but this total just doesn’t accurately represent how these two teams enter tonight’s matchup.
The Bulls enter this game off of 3 straight wins and will have revenge on their minds tonight facing a Spurs team that beat them by 9 just a few weeks ago. The Bulls are dealing with injury issues and, unfortunately, they will be without Zach LaVine tonight. However, Demar DeRozan is playing some of the best basketball in the league right now, and Chicago has found plenty of pieces that have stepped up as of late. San Antonio comes into this game off of 2 straight impressive road wins, but with this being their 4th straight road game, I think this is the spot they slip up. Chicago is one of the top offenses in the NBA, while San Antonio is even worse defensively than their 18th efficiency rating would lead you to believe. This line is a stark overreaction to the LaVine injury and gives a 22-win Spurs team far too much credit. 2u plays are rare for me, but I’m backing the Bulls heavy here to kick off the week. At 3-3.5, I like this as a 2u play. At 4-4.5, I like this as a 1.5u play. At 5-5.5, I like this as a 1u play. I wouldn’t talk you off of playing this at 6, but that’s where I think we start to lose too much value.
*NBA(1u): Clippers 1H TT UNDER 55(-120) vs Warriors–9:30 PM CT
Without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, this Clippers team is simply not very good. They rank just 26th in offensive efficiency this season and now have to match up with the best defense in the league. Golden State is not in great current form, but they were able to win a primetime game against the Lakers the other night, which should get them back to playing their brand of basketball. With defenses like Miami and Dallas playing so well this year, it can’t be said enough how impressive it is that Golden State has held that #1 defensive efficiency rating for virtually the entirety of this season. I like Golden State to lock down a slow-paced, talentless offense in the 1st Half of this game.
Monday card up and led by a powerful NBA Platinum supreme Total and a Powerful NCAB Valentines Day Blowout. NBA Comp play below.
The NBA Comp play is on Chicago at 8:10 PM. The Bulls have revenge here an are #1 in defensive field goal percentage while the spurs are ranked 23rd overall on defense. The spurs are in a negative league wide database system that play goes against road teams that are off back to back road dog wins while scoring 117 or more in both and a win three back. These teams are 0-6 straight up and to the spread over the past 27 seasons. Chicago have covered 4 of 5 favored at home and 4 of 5 taking on a team under.500 and have covered 5 of 7 at home vs the spurs who have failed to cover 9 of 11 vs a winning team. Look for the Bulls to cover. On Monday a Powerful card is up and led by an NBA Platinum supreme Top Level Total and a Valentines Day Blowout in NCAAB Action.See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on and start the week big. For the NBA Comp play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender sports
Well we nailed the Super Bowl narratives – unders, Rams win, Bengals cover. Not mad about that. A REALLY bad beat on the Odell prop with him going down early in the 2nd, and the 1Q under probably should have hit, too.
Onto a shallow card in the NBA. May send in more picks later.
NBA Picks:
Warriors -6.5 **
Golden State allowed LAL to play way too close recently – this should be an all-hands-on-deck game for Curry, Klay and the gang against an LAC offense that’s extremely under-talented in comparison. I’d take it up to -7.5
Nuggets -10.5 **
All chalk today but this is what Denver does – they LOVE blowing out bad teams. Orlando is banged up too; this number isn’t too high for me. I’d take it up to 11.5.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
It’s been one HELL of a year in the NFL for your boy! Placing 5th in the NFL Circa Sports Million was a dream come true, but we promise– this is just the beginning.
We’re hitting at 57% in the NBA and 60% in CBB right now – survey the betting world and it would be hard to find anyone hitting at that rate; that’s just the truth. We’re also up 45 units since Jan 1 across all premium picks. Click this link for a very fair price on my premiums sent directly to your mailbox, every single morning! Onto my Super Bowl plays:
Odell Beckham over 5.5 receptions (+100), 2 units: I wrote this as my “free play of the week” in my newsletter (DM me on Twitter @FarleyBets if you want to receive my weekly email), so I might as well post it here, too!
There’s a good chance Odell Beckham Jr., the enigmatic wide receiver who was signed by the Rams in mid-November, plays a key role in this year’s Super Bowl. Love him or hate him, OBJ is as hyped as any player entering the championship game. Underutilized in New York and Cleveland for too many seasons, it seems Odell finally found a place where he can maximize his skill set. Since the start of the playoffs, Odell and Rams QB Matthew Stafford connected for 19 receptions in 3 games. OBJ has become that go-to, first-down WR when Stafford needs a safety net, especially since Cooper Kupp is routinely double-teamed by opposing defenses. The Bengals doubled Tyreek Hill last week, which proved effective, and we assume they’ll do the same with Cupp. Cupp just won Offensive Player of the Year and it’s well deserved — he’s been virtually unstoppable as LAR’s #1 receiver all season. But it also garners a lot of attention – Odell will be needed and needed often.
On most teams, OBJ would be the #1 pass catcher. Expect the talented WR to out-run and out-maneuver his coverage in short yardage situations throughout this contest. I love this over prop for a great value at even money.
—
Rams/Bengals 1Q under 9.5 points (-120), 2.4 units: This is traditionally one of my favorite bets, and it’s plain to see why. Check out how the last few title game totals have gone in the 1st quarter of action:
2021: 10 points
2020: 10 points
2019: 0 points
2018: 12 points
2017: 0 points
2016: 10 points
2015: 0 points
2014: 8 points
2013: 10 points
2012: 9 points
For those of you who aren’t math majors out there, that’s 6.9 points per 1st quarter over the last 10 years. And I know what you’re thinking– that’s a LOT of totals that hit 10 or were right around 10, Chris… so how much value is there, really? I say there’s plenty.
What’s different about this Super Bowl is pretty obvious. We have two QBs who have never been to the “big dance” before. Joe Burrow is only in his FIRST full season as a starting quarterback after he famously tore his ACL in Week 11 last year. Matthew Stafford is trying to prove why he should have been here a long time ago. Either way, both of these QBs will feel the pressure from the onset of this contest. I’d say there’s a 70-75% chance that both offenses will play conservatively at first – lots of short passes, screens, and runs to get their offenses in rhythm and to take pressure off the throwers.
Not to mention, there’s plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for the other offenses’ attack. There’s a reason why the game total has fallen. Fortunately for us, the 1Q total has not. I’m all over it.
—
Other insights and recommendations:
Avoid dumb bets like how many times announcers will say this or that, how long the halftime show will last, the color of the winning team’s Gatorade bash, etc. Is burning money your goal? Cool, didn’t think so.
Play on your props based on game narratives.
Do you think the Rams defensive front dominates? Play on Bengals yards under.
Do you think both offenses struggle in the first half? Play on unders.
Do you think the Rams will win the first half? Do you think the Bengals can come back in the second half? Look at half/quarter sides.
The Super Bowl should be fun. Yes, it’s a great way to win money and wager on valuable props, but if you’re overly investing your bankroll in this ONE contest, chances are it could very well ruin your watching experience. Plenty of opportunities to bet on sports will be available all week – you don’t need to exacerbate your exposure.
In addition to this free play, I have a CBB play for my premium members today. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members +45.6u since September 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
*NBA(1u): Timberwolves 1H TT OVER 62(-120) @ Pacers–2 PM CT
The Timberwolves have been one of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and over their last 3 games, they rank 6th in offensive efficiency. Over Minnesota’s past 8 games, they’ve averaged over 125 PPG. Indiana has a bottom 5 defense in the NBA and are vulnerable to getting run off the court given every worthwhile(and healthy) piece they had was traded at the Deadline. This is the last of a 4 game road trip for Minnesota. They enter this game off of two losses and should have all the motivation to take care of business today in what is a very favorable matchup. The T-Wolves run at a Top 5 pace in the league, and I think they use that tempo to put this game away early before heading back home.
