Coming off a 4-1 night in college hoops, I’m back at it today with 3 NBA plays. In addition to this free play, I have 2 plays reserved for my premium members. With a 4-0 sweep last night, my premium plays are now hitting at a 57.9% clip and have netted my members +50.5u since September 2021. Click here to hop on board as a premium member!
*NBA(1u): Suns/Thunder 1H UNDER 107(-110)–7:10 PM CT
Oklahoma City ranks dead last in offensive efficiency this year, but did you know they rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency? I know that Phoenix is hard not to trust, but I wouldn’t expect either team to look in peak form offensively after over a week away from game action. Thankfully, the Suns rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and were playing at an elite level on that end of the floor prior to the All Star Break. Also, Monty Williams has a great group of guys who don’t take games off, so I can trust that the Suns won’t overlook this game. All in all, I think this is a low-scoring game where each offense struggles to find their rhythm and defense takes center stage, and I think that’s especially true early. 1H Under is the play for me.
The Kings are truly in shambles as an organization after trading away Tyrese Haliburton at the Trade Deadline. While they did receive Damontis Sabonis in return, this team just doesn’t have much to play for in the final part of the season. Denver, on the other hand, sits as the 6 seed in the West and has everything to play for. I have been higher on the Nuggets than most this season, and in general, I expect them to have a strong finish to the regular season. Sacramento plays arguably the worst defense in the league and surprisingly ranks just 22nd in offensive efficiency as well, so I have no problem playing against them here in what could be a low-motivation spot for them.
In a spot where both teams come in on similar rest, I am perplexed as to why this line is so short. Memphis is better in every stage of the game, has a great young core, and has proven to come through in typical “letdown” spots, so why shouldn’t I be willing to trust them here? I think the T-Wolves are generally a bit overvalued in the market, and I can’t trust them coming off an 8 day break. Memphis has been rolling all season, and I really don’t think there’s any need to overthink this. I’ll pay the extra 15 cents and take the Grizz on the ML tonight.
At some books, you can get the Nets up to +8 now. That’s a tad inflated at this point and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to take the Nets’ side now, especially if you got the Celtics at -5 or less. That’s a good middle/hedge.
Thursday led by the 100% NBA Back from the Break Total of the Year a Perfect Extended rest system side. There is also NCAAB RPI Scale system Blowout and a top level Europa League Soccer total.
The NBA Comp Play is on Cleveland at 7:10 eastern. The Cavs have covered 6 of 8 in the series and road favorites with 6 or more days rest have covered over 85% long term off a road loss vs an opponent off a road win like Detroit. The Pistons are ranked 29th and 27th on offense and defense and have failed to cover 37 of 51 off a win, 5 of 6 vs .600 or better teams . The Cavs have covered 28 of 38 after scoring 100 or more . Look for the Cavaliers to coast. On Thursday we start things off with a Top Level Europa League Soccer Total, then the NBA Back from the Break Total of the Year and a 100% Extended Rest side system and cap the night off with a Huge RPI Scale Power System play in NCAAB. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on and cash out all day and night. For the NBA Comp play. Play on Cleveland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
This line is coming out at major books and I’d jump on it now. The Lakers lost twice to the Clippers already and LeBron and company, if they want to make the playoffs, need to go on a focused run here in the final 2 months of the season.
Great spot to get that started. 2 units on LAL -1.5, and I might make it a rare 3 unit play in the end. Will let you know.
While we happily enjoy our freedoms and indulgences over here in the West, we should probably take a moment to realize how fucking good we have it. Hoping the struggle between Ukraine/Russia doesn’t escalate, but all we can do is watch and pray. PS – half of my ancestors are from Ukraine/Eastern Europe. Good luck to any country that expects those tough-ass people to go down without a fight. Not gonna happen.
Onto our picks – added a new play and some more verbiage to the below write-ups, check it out! Damn I’m happy the NBA is back!
NBA Picks:
Celtics -3.5 *
I’d take this up to -5. Simmons shouldn’t return, and If Durant is back (I don’t think he will be), this is still an advantageous line b/c he’ll be cold – coming back from an MCL tear is no joke. Boston looked sensational before the break – the only reason why they wouldn’t cover this line is if they stumbled over their own two feet. The vaunted Celtics defense will lead the way and cause a less-than-healthy Nets team a ton of trouble on offense. And for what it’s worth (perhaps the quintessential cherry on top), Tatum has been lights out as of late. If that continues, Brooklyn has little chance of covering Thursday.
Nets Team Total under 103 *
In case you didn’t get a good number on Boston (it’s up to 7 at most books), this is a good angle. No Simmons, no Kyrie, no Durant, and a Boston defense that’s incredibly locked in and poised to keep winning.
Hawks +4 *
The Hawks needed the All-Star break. The Bulls, on the other hand, already bested their conference rival twice this season; I love that in this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have significantly more size and moderately better perimeter ability than Chicago. Both should equate to easy points against a Chicago defense that’s been regressing for over a month. The Hawks are due for positive regression on defense and they have the manpower and length to make it happen. Hawks at least keep this close; a sprinkle on the ML might be worth it here.
Grizzlies/Wolves over 229.5 **
Okay so this is WAY up now – I wouldn’t take it at the current number (239), but look for lie totals throughout the game if either one of these teams slow down. A team total look at either team isn’t a bad angle either. For obvious reasons, the pace and output of these two teams should feed into each other following the break. This line is WAY too low. I would take it up to 234, albeit for less units. Judge accordingly by what you can handle.
Warriors -6.5 **
Any questions? Steph is coming off that sensational All Star performance, the Warriors needed the break to get back to their old selves, and they’re not exactly facing a juggernaut Thursday. I don’t care that Portland is at home – this is a bad team that needs young A. Simons to play exceptionally well to merely have a chance at winning. All Warriors for me.
CBB Picks:
San Francisco +10 *
This is a PREMIERE spot for SF to prove that they can hang with one of the best teams in college basketball and a conference rival. Expect extreme motivation for the home team here and a cover.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
On this week of Expected Bets For we have special guest Nick (Earle Sports Bets), aka @nicholas_earle on Twitter to help breakdown Thursday February 24th’s NHL slate.
It’s an incredible episode that allows the listener more insight into the NHL market and specifically what to look at when interpreting NHL opening lines regarding totals.
In addition to breaking down games we talk about:
NHL News/ Notes
Hot/ Cold Teams
Trade Market
Coaching Changes
Betting Strategies
Recent NHL Trends
You can follow Nick on Twitter @nicholas_earle and on his YouTube Earle Sports Bets.
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Hey Odds Breakers! We’re SO close to the NBA’s return, oh and we’re STILL hitting at 57% and we’re +74 units on the season! Hit the link to receive my PREMIUM plays every day in your inbox. Check out the full NBA pod below – expect 1-3 of these per week right up until season’s end!
Yesterday’s free play on Vandy +4.5 cashed for us! In addition to today’s free play, I have 4 CBB plays reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.2% clip and have netted my members +46.35u since Sept. 2021. Click here to become a premium member!
*CBB(1u): Mississippi State/South Carolina OVER 139(-110)–5:30 PM CT
Frank Martin sneakily has his South Carolina team playing very well at the moment. The Gamecocks enter tonight off of 3 straight wins, including a 77-75 win over LSU on Saturday. Over this 3 game stretch, SC has scored 75 PPG in regulation; they’ve run at a fast tempo all season, and now it appears they are pairing that pace with some efficiency. Mississippi State’s main knock is their lack of consistency defensively, and with this being their second straight road game, this spot makes them vulnerable to some mishaps on that end of the floor. The Bulldogs have found themselves in a “2nd straight road game” spot twice this season, and in those games, they allowed 80 to Alabama and 76 to Texas Tech. That said, Mississippi State ranks 34th in offensive efficiency and are trustworthy on that end of the floor. South Carolina has played solid defense for most of this season, but over their past 6 games, they’re allowing 77 PPG. As I handicap this game, I don’t understand why this total is not in the 140’s. I like the Over in this one as my free play for tonight.
Given that this is the second straight game I’m backing Fordham, I’ll just say that this Texas boy has no affiliation with Fordham University out of NYC. The Rams got the job done for us on Sunday, and this spot sets up well for a repeat. This will be La Salle’s 4th(!) straight road game; they lost each of the first 3 and in total enter tonight having lost 9 of their last 10. Fordham has a punishing defense that ranks 56th in defensive efficiency, and the only way you can find success against them is getting hot from beyond the arc. Thankfully, La Salle ranks just 243rd in 3-point FG percentage and pairs that with one of the worst defenses in the A-10. Fordham is no world-beaters themselves offensively, but coming off that George Mason win, I’d expect the Rams to play free and easy offensively tonight. I look to bet against teams playing their second straight road game, so with this being La Salle’s 4th and each team trending in opposite directions, I’m more than willing to lay the short number with Fordham tonight.
*CBB(1u): Michigan -5(-110) vs Rutgers–6 PM CT
Unsurprisingly, novice bettors love Rutgers tonight for the simple fact that Michigan received some negative press after HC Juwan Howard was embroiled in a postgame fight on Sunday. As a general rule, playing against these public sentiments will make you a profit. Stepping in for Juwan Howard as interim HC will be Phil Martelli, who has 25 years of HC experience from his time at St Joe’s and is almost surely a better on-floor coach than Howard. Also, if anything, wouldn’t Sunday’s controversy bring more fire out of Michigan tonight? The Wolverines are fighting for their postseason lives and have stepped up in these home spots multiple times this season. While the offense sputtered against Wisconsin on Sunday, this is still a team that ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency and has earned my trust on that end of the floor. Rutgers is obviously a feisty team, but they’re much better playing at home. This is the Scarlet Knights’ second straight road game, and quite frankly, I expect this team to regress after stacking up some improbable wins over the past few weeks. Rutgers’ defense is only slightly better than Michigan’s(especially on the road), and their offense is miles-and-miles behind. I think Michigan comes out hot, doesn’t let the foot off the gas, and wins this game handily.
*CBB(1u): Duquesne TT UNDER 63.5(-120) vs Davidson–6 PM CT
Over their past 11 games spanning back to January 15th, Duquesne has averaged just 56 PPG and has failed to score more than 62 points in any game they’ve played. The Dukes shoot less than 40% from the floor and rank at the bottom in almost every offensive category. I’ve been critical of Davidson’s defense at times, but they actually come into this game allowing less than 60 PPG over their last 2. Davidson sits at the top of the A-10 standings, and there is no reason for them to make a statement tonight. The Wildcats already rank 320th in pace, and I would expect them to go even slower tonight in hopes of getting this game over as quick as possible. Considering Duquesne goes slow themselves, I see no reason why tonight will play out any differently than any other Duquesne game has as of late.
Davidson pick is pretty much explained above. I mean, Duquesne is 6-19, has lost 12 straight, and over their last 11 games has kept just 2 within single digits. Davidson can be vulnerable against most of the A-10, but it would take a miracle for them to lose this game.
Michigan explained above.
SMU is coming off a massive win against Memphis on Sunday and now finds themselves back in contention for an at-large bid. Essentially, I don’t see this as a “let down” spot considering there is still work to be done for them to make the Tournament. They catch 9-16 Tulsa at an ideal time with this being Tulsa’s 3rd straight road game. Tulsa has been known to get down early in these spots but fight in the second half to make themselves a back-door candidate. Rather than laying the double-digits with the Ponies, I’ll trust them to take a lead into the Half.
