What’s up people! Are you ready for the NBA to return?! I sure am! We’re STILL hitting at 57% and we’re +74 units on the season! Hit the link to receive my PREMIUM plays every day in your inbox. Onto the free play!
Warriors -6.5 (-110), 2 units: Perception is a funny thing, isn’t it? At best, it gives you a clear purview of a current scenario or situation. At worst, perception can muddle, confuse, and downright deter you from objective realities that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Insert the Blazers vs. the Warriors Thursday night.
How do I say this in a way we can all understand… the Blazers are a shitty basketball team, and the Warriors are not. How’s that? Steph Curry is coming off a remarkable performance at the All-Star game, record-breaking actually, dropping 16 three-pointers throughout the contest. Momentum is a thing in the NBA, probably more so than most other sports; assume Curry “the sniper” enters Thursday’s contest as confident as ever.
And that’s not a good thing for Portland. Portland is one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending the 3-ball, allowing 37.2% to their opponents, which is 29th (out of 30 teams) in the association. Klay Thompson cooled off before the break but I wouldn’t be shocked if he let it rip from beyond the arc in this matchup, too. PS: Golden State has been top 5 in 3-point percentage and 3-pointers made all season. Needless to say, if the Warriors get in a rhythm from the perimeter, this could get ugly.
On the flip side, the Blazers experienced some improvement over the last month or so. After trading CJ McCollum and with Damian Lillard likely on the outs, the Blazers now feel like Anfernee Simons’ team. The young-gun has talent, no doubt, but carrying this version of the Blazers will be no easy task. Portland probably has the advantage down low in Jusef Nurkic; if they can feed it to him and run the pick and roll effectively, there’s a shot they cover this line. Obviously, I’m betting against that. The Warriors handled Portland with ease twice already this season. Golden State is also due for positive regression on both offense and defense, while the Blazers are due to devolve in both categories. The coaching, talent, and depth just isn’t there for Portland.
The Warriors lost 4 out of their last 5 games before the break, while the Blazers won 4 straight during the same span. Neither of those trends will continue. I have the Warriors at -9 in this contest; bet Golden State!
Iowa State's Tyrese Hunter shoots the ball during the Iowa State men's basketball game against No. 1 Baylor, on Saturday Jan. 1, 2022, at Hilton Coliseum, in Ames. The Cyclones fell to the Bears 77-72.
West Virginia vs Iowa State -5.5 O/U 131.5
This is a Big 10 game that I found interesting because as bad as West Virginia is playing losing 11 of their last 12 games, their only win during that span was against Iowa State at home where they shot 50% from two and 50% from three. West Virginia definitely got a little lucky this game being that they only rank 310th in effective FG% during the full year at 46.5%. West Virginia is out of the NCAA tournament no matter how they finish the regular season minus a far fetched Big 12 tournament win. Iowa State on the other hand had a great non-conference going undefeated and hit some major bumps in Big 12 conference play. Due to their non-conference, and a few big wins, they will be in the tournament as long as they have a decent finish. The big tell for me is that Iowa State has had some good performances at home in big games beating Texas Tech, Texas, and most recently Oklahoma by double digits. They seemed to have figured it out over their last two games and are gaining momentum. Iowa State ranks 24th in the nation in near proximity points while West Virginia ranks 84th defending it. This is where Iowa State is going to dominate this game and I am not worried about the West Virginia offense catching luck shooting the big three. Lay the points with the team that needs it more in a spot of vengeance.
Would’ve been an undefeated day if I didn’t add crusty ass Georgia – oh well! We’ve been staying afloat in CBB but hot damn, I’m ready for my expertise (ya know, pro basketball) to return. Tomorrow I’ll be solely focused on the NBA, so I doubt I’ll have any CBB picks. Here are my CBB plays today and my NBA plays for the association’s first night back!
CBB Today:
Army -6 *
Army got impressively shellacked by American U (YIKES) a few days ago, so this is a great bounce back spot at home against a much less capable team. Also, Bucknell is coming off a Patriot League win against Lafayette – wins don’t come often for the Bison, so I expect them to return to form tonight and shit the bed against a hungrier team in the Golden Knights.
VCU -6.5 *
VCU is a team built with fortitude and it’s all because of their defensive ability. One area of big time concern for their opponent tonight, George Mason, who VCU beat by 15 points less than 2 weeks ago – GM relies heavily on perimeter shooting, an area where the VCU defense thrives. Unless Mason gets a ton of good shots off from the perimeter, which is unlikely, VCU should cover this line with ease at home. My only cautionary statement: this could be a sleepy spot for VCU since they expect to win and they’ve now won 5 in a row.
Colgate -12.5 *
Okay if you thought my last two picks were ugly, how about this shit-show eh? I used to think Colgate was only a toothpaste, so when I had a go-to-school to make fun of in CBB, it was Colgate. Apologies if you’re an alum and congrats on your degree… Anyway, Colgate happens to be extremely good on the offensive side of the ball. They’re the class of the Patriot League for a reason, and unfortunately for Holy Cross, I don’t see much changing in this contest. Holy Cross is, simply, one of the least efficient offensive teams in the country. Again, as long as Colgate doesn’t sleep at the wheel, I expect another favorite to cruise.
Syracuse +5 *
The Orangemen have played against tougher defenses than Notre Dame in the ACC, and tonight they’ll have a chance to prove they can overcome one of the better teams in their conference. The Irish have been consistently good on both sides of the court this year, particularly on defense, but the pace and efficiency of the Syracuse offense should keep them in this game. These two teams aren’t as disparate as some of the stats and rankings suggest. I have this at Notre Dame -3.
NBA Tomorrow:
Celtics -3.5 *
I’d take this up to -5. Simmons shouldn’t return, and If Durant is back (I don’t think he will be), this is still an advantageous line b/c he’ll be cold – coming back from an MCL tear is no joke. Boston looked sensational before the break – the only reason why they wouldn’t cover this line is if they stumbled over their own two feet. The vaunted Celtics defense will lead the way and cause a less-than-healthy Nets team a ton of trouble on offense. And for what it’s worth (perhaps the quintessential cherry on top), Tatum has been lights out as of late. If that continues, Brooklyn has little chance of covering Thursday.
Hawks +4 *
The Hawks needed the All-Star break. The Bulls, on the other hand, already bested their conference rival twice this season; I love that in this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have significantly more size and moderately better perimeter ability than Chicago. Both should equate to easy points against a Chicago defense that’s been regressing for over a month. The Hawks are due for positive regression on defense and they have the manpower and length to make it happen. Hawks at least keep this close; a sprinkle on the ML might be worth it here.
Grizzlies/Wolves over 229.5 **
For obvious reasons, the pace and output of these two teams should feed into each other following the break. This line is WAY too low. I would take it up to 234, albeit for less units. Judge accordingly by what you can handle.
Warriors -6.5 **
Any questions? Steph is coming off that sensational All Star performance, the Warriors needed the break to get back to their old selves, and they’re not exactly facing a juggernaut Thursday. I don’t care that Portland is at home – this is a bad team that needs young A. Simons to play exceptionally well to merely have a chance at winning. All Warriors for me.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Our run came to an end last week, as we failed to pick the winner in The Genesis Invitational. Shout out to Joaquin Niemann for an incredible performance winning wire-to-wire. He struggled a bit on Sunday but, was able to hold off the late push from Collin Morikawa to capture his second win on the PGA Tour. Our lone cash of the week was Adam Scott Top 20, despite this, we still finished down 1.52 Units last week. Even with the rough week at The Genesis, we’re still up 15.12 Units in the past three weeks.
We now turn our attention to PGA National for The Honda Classic which should provide us with much lower scores than we saw at Riviera. The PGA begins the Florida Swing this week which will bring us bermudagrass that’s much more predictable than the Poa Annua we’ve seen recently.
Tournament Information:
Dates: February 24th, 2022- February 27th, 2022
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, United States
Course: PGA National – Champion Course
Course Type: Florida/ Southeast
Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
Length: 7,125 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 144 Players | Top 65 and Ties after 36 Holes
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Rough: TifSport Bermudagrass with Perennial Rye 2.25″
The Honda Classic begins the Florida Swing of the PGA Tour. The event was founded in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic. In 1973 National Airlines was co-sponsor with Gleason until 1981, when American Motors Corporation took over the sponsorship rights. In 1982, Honda became the title sponsor and has retained the rights ever since.
In 2007, PGA National became the permanent host of this event and ever since has attracted a better field. While it’s still one of the weaker fields on Tour, the strength of the field has slowly improved year by year. In addition to the field improving, the purse has increased as well. It jumps up to $8 Million dollars this year from the $7 Million offered in 2020 and 2021.
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
PGA National is one of the toughest courses players will face on the Tour outside of the Majors. Over the past five years, the scoring average has been above par every year. In 2021, only six holes played under par (#1,#8,#9,#13), which included the two par 5’s (#3,#18).
In terms of length, PGA National is not overly long measuring 7,125 yards. It ranks roughly around the Tour average, ranking slightly shorter actually. The fairways are on the narrower side of things with the average fairway width being 29.4 feet. This ranks as the 12th narrowest course on the Tour so Strokes Gained Off the Tee will definitely be a key category this week. Even with the narrow fairways, the rough this week is relatively short so missing the fairway wont be as costly. The average green size is roughly 7,000 square feet which is on the larger side of things when compared to the other courses on Tour.
The main defense of the course is predominately the water hazards, that come into play on nearly every hole (15/18). While the course is relatively short, these water hazards can force layups on certain holes. The course is also very susceptible to winds, which can become a major factor on approach shots.
The “Bear-Trap” will also be a phrase that’s referred to a lot this weeks and that’s in reference to Holes 15-16-17. All of these holes played over par last year which leads to an exciting finish. Holes 15 and 17 are Par 3’s both under 200 yards with water being a major factor. Hole 16 is a Par 4 that forces players to hit a tough approach shot into a tight green that’s protected on all sides.
To see the hole by hole strokes average last year, you can click the following link.
For a hole by hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
Par 4 Scoring
Scrambling
Greens in Regulation %
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie to Bogey Ratio
The Field/ Odds:
When looking at this week’s field compared to recent weeks on the PGA Tour, it’s definitely not as strong as only 12 of the Worlds Top 50 golfers are competing here at PGA National. Louis Oosthuizen is the top ranked player in the filed at 13 and is currently at +2000 on FanDuel.
Sungjae Im opens up as the favorite for the Honda Classic at 13-1 on FanDuel. He’s even lower on other books, including DraftKings where he’s listed at 10-1. Im won this event back in 2020 and finished 8th in 2021. In addition to his great course history, he’s been in great form with his most recent finishes; 8-MC-11-6-33.
Daniel Berger is the next line, listed at 16-1 on most books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM). There’s some doubt’s over his health here (back issues) as he pulled out Pebble Beach, then missed the cut in the Waste Management Phoenix Open. However, if he’s entered in this event he clearly feels like he can compete. Berger last played in The Honda Classic back in 2020 where he finished 4th. He went through a rough stretch here at PGA National from 2019-2016, with his best finishing being 29th in 2018. In his tournament debut he did finish 2nd back in 2015.
Last weeks winner Joaquin Niemann, is listed at 18-1 on DraftKings and BetMGM and as low as 16-1 on FanDuel. He was absolutely incredible in the Genesis Invitational winning wire to wire. Niemann’s best finish at The Honda Classic was last year where he finished 25th. Prior to that, he missed the cut in 2020 and finished 59th in 2019 when he made his tournament debut.
Brooks Koepka is the third favorite this week listed at 20-1 on all books. He hasn’t been all that consistent as of late, missing the cut in two of his last three starts. He did place 3rd in the Waste Management Phoenix Open though. His best finish at The Honda Classic was back in 2019 where he finished 2nd, but in 2020 he missed the cut. This is a tough week to play Brooks given his recent form, but given the weaker field, he does have a good shot to win this event.
Some other popular plays this week will most likely be:
Tommy Fleetwood (20-1)
He finished 4th at the Honda Classic in 2018 and 3rd in 2020.
Keith Mitchell (35-1)
He finished 12th and 10th in his two most recent starts and won this event back in 2019.
Billy Horschel (22-1)
He has been solid recently, making the cut in his last six starts. Horschel finished 8th in 2016 and 4th in 2017 at this event.
Denny McCarthy (60-1)
He’s in solid form as of late, besides missing the cut in his last start. He finished 3rd in this event last year .
We were on Noren last week T40 and he just missed out finishing 48th. He’s made the cut in his last three events and has finished 39-6-48. His best finish at The Honda Classic came back in 2018 where he finished 3rd. Last year at this event, he finished 46. As of late Noren has been playing some of his best golf, and returns to a course he’s gaining strokes in nearly every category besides Around the Green.
Mackenzie Hughes (+5000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.16 to win 8.00 Units
Mackenzie Hughes also won The Honda Classic back in 2020 but ended up one stroke back to Sungjae Im. He hasn’t been great recently missing the cut in his past two of three events but did finish T16 at Pebble. In 2021, he finished T36 in this event. Hughes isn’t a great player off the tee but is very good around the green. He’s also a great putting as he ranks 2nd in SG: Putting on the Tour this year. In terms of Par 4 Scoring he ranks well and in addition to that, he ranks very well in Birdie Average.
Lucas Glover (+6600) – BetMGM
Risk 0.13 to win 8.58 Units
Glover seems to love playing here when looking at his SG statistics. His best finish recently at The Honda Classic was back in 2019 where he finished 4th. In 2021 he finished 21st at PGA National. In his last five events, he’s finished 35-5-33-MC-37 which is pretty good. On Tour this year, he ranks 73rd in SG: OTT, 32nd in SG:APP, and 59th in SG:T2G. His putting is a concern but since 2016 he’s gaining 0.37 strokes putting at PGA National.
Lee Westwood (+7000) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.12 to win 8.4 Units
Lee Westwood has been playing some pretty good golf lately as his last three finishes are 20-32-21. He’s had some success here at PGA National gathering three top-10’s in the past ten years. Last year he did struggle in this event and missed the cut but given his recent form I think he has a much better shot this year.
Chris Kirk (+7000) – Draftkings
Risk 0.12 to win 8.4 Units
Chris Kirk is coming off a T14 at the WM Phoenix Open. Prior to that event, he missed the cut at Pebble and The American Express. Last year at The Honda Classic, he finished 25th. On the year, Kirk ranks 31st in SG: OTT, 32nd in SG: ATG, 23rd in SG:T2G, and 25th in SG: Total. His putting is definitely a concern, but he’s a solid player off the tee and if his irons are on he has a shot here. He struggles to make birdies which is also a concern but, he does limit bogeys as he’s T55 in Birdie to Bogey Ratio.
Michael Thompson (+8000) – DraftKings
Risk 0.10 to win 8.00 Units
Thompson’s been inconsistent as of late, missing the cut in his last two events (Pebble & WM Phoenix Open). Before those two tournaments he did finish T11 in the Farmers Insurance Open and T5 in the Sony Open. Thompson won The Honda Classic back in 2013 and has two top-20’s here in the past four years.
Sepp Straka (+12500) – Pointsbet
Risk 0.07 to win 8.75 Units
Sepp Straka has yet to miss a cut in his last five tournaments and has had the following finishing positions in those events; 42-49-16-66-15. He’s played at The Honda Classic three times in his career, missing the cut in 2019, finishing 27th in 2020, and 33rd in 2021. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks 22nd in SG:OTT, 17th in SG:T2G, and 37th in SG:ATG. He’s been playing well as of late and is familiar with the course so hopefully he can get his first win on the Tour here.
J.J Spaun (+15000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.06 to win 9.00 Units
When putting together my card for the week, I almost left him off in favor of Nick Taylor but when I looked at the numbers, he’s been the better golfer this year. He struggled at The Genesis Invitational missing the cut but rattled off three top-40’s before that with his best finish coming at Pebble (T16). He’s solid off the tee in terms of accuracy and is a fairly good player around the green, ranking 59th in SG:ATG. Spaun has missed the cut in his last two appearances at PGA National but finished 21st in 2017. He seems to be in solid form given his last few starts so at 100-1, he’s worth a shot. If Nick Taylor wins this week, it’s going to be a very bad Sunday….
Ryan Armour (+21000) – FanDuel
Risk 0.04 to win 8.4 Units
Why not? I mean when you really break down the numbers at 210-1, Ryan Armour is worth a shot. In his most recent performances he finished T28 at Pebble and T20 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. This season he ranks 31st in SG: OTT, 54th in SG: APP, and 84th in SG:TTG. He’s 3rd in Driving Accuracy % and 34th in Par 4 Scoring Average. In his six apperances here at The Honda Classic, he’s missed the cut four times but finished 12th and 58th those two other times. He hasn’t played in the past two weeks but hey who knows? Keith Mitchell won this event at 300-1 back in 2019.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.03 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Tommy Fleetwood (+200) – FanDuel (Currently +130, gave out play on Twitter)
Risk 1.00 to win 2.00 Units
Tommy Fleetwood seems to love PGA National, he’s only played here twice but finished 4th in 2018 and 3rd in 2020. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks top 3 in every strokes gained category. Given the number of +150, I feel like this play has some incredible value. To top it all off, he’s finished 12th and 8th in his last two tournaments.
Billy Horschel (+150) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.50 Units
Horschel has been great as of late with a top-10 and two two-20 finishes in his last five appearances. His best finishes at The Honda Classic came back in 2016 and 2017, where he finished 8th and 4th respectively. He missed the cut in 2018, and followed that up by finishing 16th in 2019 and 42nd in 2020. Given his recent form, and course history, I think he finds the top-20 this week. He’s 14th in Par 4 Scoring Average, 9th in Birdie or Better %, and 18th in Greens in Regulation %.
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Sam Ryder (+175) – FanDuel
Risk 1.00 to win 1.75 Units
Sam Ryder comes into The Honda Classic off a T26 in The Genesis Invitational and a T23 in the WM Phoenix Open. He’s played in this event twice, finishing 53 back in 2020 and 8th last year. While he doesn’t really rank well in terms of SG categories on the PGA Tour this year, he does rank well at PGA National. In terms of the field, who have played in this event before, he ranks 5th in SG-APP, 5th in SG:T2G, and 6th in SG:BST.
We’ve struggled yesterday going 0-2 but look to bounce back today. Shorter article today with just a few picks. Not a real great slate of games today but there’s a few angles that I think are worth a play.
PICK #1: ST. LOUIS BLUES/ PHILADELPHIA FLYERS OVER 6.0 (+100**) – Caesars
Most of the books have this line set at 6.5 (+100/-120) but Caesars has yet to adjust their line. In the Last 10 games, STL is averaging 3.90 GF & 2.90 GA while PHI is averaging 2.90 GF and 4.10 GA. Jordan Binnington is expected to get the start for STL tonight and despite being their main goalie, he’s actually been worse than their backup Ville Husso. He hasn’t started in a while, as he’s been awful in his past three appearances letting in 5-7-6 goals against. Carter Hart is expected to get the start for PHI and has also been awful in his past three starts allowing 5-3-5 goals against. If Hart can’t go, as he’s questionable with an eye injury, Martin Jones will get the start who’s been worse than Hart on the year. This line has some incredible value so take it while you can before they adjust.
** UPDATE AS I WAS WRITING THIS ARTICLE ITS BEEN ADJUSTED TO -125. SINCE THE ARTICLE WAS NOT RELEASED YET I WILL RECORD IT AS PHI/STL OVER 6.0 (-125).
PICK #2: SAN JOSE SHARKS/ ANAHIEM DUCKS OVER 5.5 (-125) – Caesars
Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as the starter for ANA tonight. He was great in his last game vs CGY but struggled in his previous starts. In the Last 10 games, SJ is averaging 2.50 GF & 3.50 GA while ANA is averaging 3.60 GF and 3.50 GA. Despite San Jose’s offense struggles in the past few games, ANA has their back up in and hasn’t been great defensively. James Reimer is expected to start for the Sharks who’s allowed at least three goals against in his last four starts.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I started the week out with a disappointing 1-2 night, and the free play on Baylor failed to cash for us. However, I’m back today with 2 plays; one of those plays is reserved for premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.4% clip and have netted my members +47.45u since Sept. 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member, and let’s have ourselves a night!
*CBB(1u): Vanderbilt +4.5(-110) vs Alabama –8 PM CT
Alabama is one of the most inconsistent teams in the country, and that becomes even more true when they’re playing on the road. Already this season, they’ve picked up ugly losses at Georgia and Missouri and are just 2-5 SU and ATS on the road in conference play. To make matters worse, this is their second straight road game after losing at Kentucky on Saturday. Vanderbilt has proven they can win in this spot, having one 4 straight home games(including a win vs LSU) entering tonight. We know that Alabama likes to push the pace and shoot a ton of 3’s, but Vanderbilt ranks 45th in defensive efficiency and will look to slow this game down. Alabama’s defense has significantly regressed this season, ranking 81st in defensive efficiency and allowing an astounding 85 PPG on the road in SEC play. You could argue that Vanderbilt’s Scotty Pippen Jr. will be the best player on the floor tonight, and with this being the Dores’ second straight home game, I think some of their complementary pieces will play a big role on the offensive end of the floor. Vanderbilt is catching Alabama in a role they have proven to falter in often; I’ll take the points with the feisty road ‘dog.
I have been pretty open about how I think this Tennessee team is overrated, but even if I didn’t think that, this would certainly be a spot I’d be looking to play on the Tigers. The Vols are coming off a 58-48 loss at Arkansas, making this their second straight road game. Not only that, but they’ll host #3 Auburn this Saturday in Knoxville, making this a true sandwich spot. That alone doesn’t get me on Missouri, but I do think this Tigers team enters tonight in pretty solid form. They fought Mississippi State tooth-and-nail on Sunday night, eventually losing by 2. At home this season, they also have a win over Alabama as well as 1 possession losses to Auburn, Florida, and Texas A&M. I think Missouri keeps this game much tighter than this spread would indicate. This has “multi-unit play” written all over it, but at the same time, I don’t want to go too heavy betting on a 10-17 team. Even so, this is a strong premium look for me.
Tuesday card has the College Hoops Game Of the Month along with the NHL Total of the week headlining. NHL Comp play below.
The NHL Comp play for Tuesday is on Toronto at 7:05 eastern. Toronto never showed up last night in a 5-2 loss at Montreal. Expect a much more spirited effort here tonight as they are 4-0 in the 3rd game in a 4 night scenario as well as 7-2 after scoring 2 or less goals. Toronto has won 14 of 19 as a road favorite and the last 5 vs Metropolitan teams. Columbus is the worst team in the league on defense and despite scoring 14 in their last 2 games will be cooled off by a top 5 defense like Toronto. Columbus has lost 6 of 7 as a home dog and 16 of 23 vs a .600 or better opponents. Look for Toronto to rebound with a win. On Tuesday the headliner plays are the NCAAB Game of the Month and the NHL Total of the week. Both from top level database systems. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out on Tuesday. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Georgia and Texas A&M aren’t two of the best teams in the SEC and that’s part of my handicap. The Bulldogs have played well recently, battling with other rivals in an attempt to salvage their season. I think Georgia fights hard here again – this number is too inflated, especially for a team as flawed as A&M is (A&M doesn’t rank in the top 100 offenses in the country, #113 according to Haslametrics). I’ll play on the Dawgs to cover tonight.
Had some extra time tonight so thought I’d get these in early. Getting early lines (and closing line value) is one of the biggest parts of successful long term betting. Doubt I’ll add any more plays for tomorrow, but stay tuned!
CBB Picks:
Iowa -6.5 *
These two teams are sailing in two very different directions, and lately Iowa’s offense has looked really explosive. Michigan St.. on the other hand, is struggling at both ends of the floor and they’ve lost 4 out of their last 5. Normally I might expect some positive regression here, but there’s not much to like about the Spartans tonight, especially in this matchup. All Iowa for me.
Villanova/UCONN over 136 **
In their first contest, points were NO problem. I recognize the books expecting some improvement on the defensive end, but lately you’d be hard-pressed to find a game where Nova/UCONN games don’t go well over the 140s. This number will only rise – I’d bet on the over now.
Akron -7.5 **
Last time these two faced off, Akron blew Bowling Green out of the water. Sure, BG had an atrocious shooting performance, but here’s their issue- they’re one of the fastest teams in NCAA (5th according to Haslametrics), aaaand they’re also one of the worst defenses in the country. Not a great combo. Why? Because their pace only causes them more problems, stimulating good offenses like Akron while making matters doubly worse on the defensive end. I see the Zips annihilating them once more.
NBA Futures to Consider (a star if I bet them already):
Grizzlies +2500 to win the NBA Championship *
Bucks Eastern Conference Winner (+275 – waiting for better odds)
Reg Season MVP: Steph Curry (+900)
To Make the Playoffs: Pelicans (+850) *
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
