Low total tonight in this Friday game which has been pulled down from its 131 open. I still like the under in this one as we just saw this matchup land at 109 about a month ago. St. Pete’s has relied on their defense, 76th in the nation in defensive efficiency, to get them into 2nd place in the MAAC. The Peacock’s are 4-8 O/U in conference games and 2-6 O/U at home.
Rider has found some success of late winning 3 in a row, 4 of their L5, so that will keep me off the higher spread in this game. Against higher scoring conference opponents, Rider has definitely trended towards the under. To me, that’s a sign that Rider isn’t sinking as many shots as the market feels they should (339th in overall FG%) and/ or their defense is better than expected. The Broncos come into this one 5-7 O/U in conference games and 3-7 O/U as an away dog.
Neither team is offensively efficient, or likely to get a ton of second chance points with great rebounding. The defenses are what stood out and I expect that again tonight. The market agrees, give me the under!
Check out more of my plays on my Patreon as I have 2 additional plays going tonight, including a 2 unit play!
Lots of content below! Another winning night as our crazy surge continues in the NBA. I don’t plan on stopping, do you? Okay but, stay humble, stay humble, stay humble (so fucking hard sometimes, ha). Check out my UFC picks below, too!
NBA Picks, 2.11:
CLE/IND over 212.5 *
New stars on both teams should prove to be catalysts for the offenses tonight – I got this game at 217 and I’d bet it up to 214.5
DEN/BOS over 217.5 **
This total is climbing for a reason. The Nuggets and Celtics both increase their pace in these situations and lately their offenses are super efficient. I got this at 223 – I’d take it up to 220.
Jazz -12.5 **
Is it ugly? Yes- just like the Raptors game yesterday that hit. This is a premiere spot for the Jazz, a horrible spot for the Magic, and Gobert could return. Night night, Orlando.
CBB Picks:
Utah State -11.5 *
They crushed Nevada last time, I see no reason why they don’t again, at home. They’re a significantly better team.
UFC 271 Picks:
Modafferi/O’Neill does NOT go distance (+140) *
O’Neill has serious finishing power, and her last 4 fights haven’t gone the distance.
Cannonier/Brunson DOES go the distance (+114) *
Two different fighting styles should create some caution in a big fight for both men.
Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO stoppage in round 1 (+200)
Why the hell not? These two mammouths are open about the fact that they’ll be going right at each other for a knockout. Getting close to Lewis? Not a good idea.
UFC Parlay: Perez, O’Neill, Ulberg, Lewis, Adesanya (1 unit to win 3.45) *
SB Picks:
1Q under 9.5 **
1H under 23.5 *
Odell over 5.5 catches (+110) ** (this is great value)
Bengals +4 *
Bengals 3rd QTR ML (+100) **
Parlay: Rams ML + under 48.5 ** (2 units to win 3.88 units)
Uzomah to score a TD (+400) *
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
We have a MASSIVE SUPER BOWL WEEKEND show for you today! First, Derek Stevens @DerekJStevens, the CEO of @CircaSports joins us to discuss the contests, the Super Bowl parties at the Circa as well as some ideas that get discussed of what could be in store for the future. Will Derek be making a large super bowl bet? Next, Simon @ShotQualityBets comes on to break down his fantastic website ShotQuality.com and ShotQualityBets.com. We dive deep into a different way of handicapping basketball games. Then, Lou Finocchiaro from GambLou.com comes on to discuss a massive UFC 271 card for the weekend with some leans and some plays! What got Lou into the UFC? What is Lou and Kiev’s thoughts on fighter way and what would it take to change it? Should you have any questions, please contact us at TheOddsBreakers.com
0:00 – 22:21 – Derek Stevens from Circa Sports
22:22 – 48:52 – Simon Gerszberg from Shot Quality
48:53 – 1:52:50 – Lou Finocchiaro from GambLou.com
NFL: Cincinnati vs LA Rams
NCAA: Indiana vs Michigan State – Texas vs Baylor and more!
UFC 271 – Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya – Derek Lewis vs Tai Tuivasa and more!
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Only four games going tonight in the NHL tonight with some below average matchups. I’ll breakdown the Isles vs the Oilers and may a few other picks on the night. Let’s get into it!
New York Islanders @ Edmonton Oilers
Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN +
New York Islanders: 17-17-6, 6th Metropolitan (8-7-3 Away)
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Islanders’ last 14 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders’ last 6 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Edmonton’s last 7 games.
Under is 4-1 in Oilers last 5 home games.
Preview:
These teams faced off last month where the New York Islanders defeated the Edmonton Oilers 3-2 in Overtime. New York was a slight favorite in that game with the total being said at 6.0.
New York Islanders
The New York Islanders returned from the All-Star break on Wednesday with a 6-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks on the road. They’re in the middle of the four game road trip where they’ll take on the Oilers tonight and face Calgary on Saturday and Buffalo on Tuesday. The Islanders have played the least games of any NHL team this year (40), so they’ll need to get hot quick if they want to make a post season push.
The Long Island Islanders are one of the worst teams offensively averaging 2.45 Goals For on the season. In their last 10 games, they’ve been much better averaging 3.10. Surprisingly, they average more Goals For on the road with 2.61. In terms of Shots For, they rank 29th with an average of 28.7 per game along with a Shooting % of 8.5 which is 24th. The Islanders have a -5.7 Goals For Above Expected which is 12th worst. Their Power Play ranks 23rd with a 17.5 conversion percentage. In their last 10, their Power Play has struggled so I would avoid looking at any Power Play point player props.
Kyle Palmieri will be out tonight for the Islanders as he has tested positive for COVID-19.
Defensively, New York has been much better ranking 5th in Goals Against giving up an average of 2.63 per game. They have a -5.0 Goals Against Above Expected on the year. New York ranks 14th in terms of Shots on Goal Against with an average of 31.0 but, rank much better in terms of High Danger Shots against. Their Penalty Kill has been great ranking 8th and has only allowed two Power Play goals against them in their last 10.
Ilya Sorokin will get the start in net for the Islanders tonight who has a 14-8-5 record on the year with a 2.33 GAA. He has a +5.7 GSAx on the season but has allowed 3 or more goals in his last four starts.
Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton will play their third game in four games since the All-Star break. They’ve lost both of their games following the break to Vegas (4-0) and Chicago (4-1). Dave Tippett has been fired as their head coach, so Jay Woodrich will make his debut behind the bench tonight. Woodcroft spent the past 3.5 seasons as head coach of the Bakersfield Condors (Edmonton’s AHL team) and will come to Edmonton with assistant Dave Manson.
The Oilers rank 12th in terms of Goals For averaging 3.18 but have only averaged 2.90 in his last 10. Edmonton does rank 9th in terms of Shots on Goals For but does have a -5.7 Goals For Above Expected as their shooting % isn’t strong. Their Power Play remains solid on the year ranking 3rd. That being said, in the Oilers last 10 games their Power Play has been sub-par.
They’ll be without Zack Kassian who’s on IR with a jaw injury. He’s expected to make his return in early April.
Unlike the Isles, Edmonton has been horrible defensively averaging 3.32 Goals Against per game ranking 23rd. In their last 10, they have been even worse giving up an average of 3.50 Goals Against per game. They rank 22nd in Shots Allowed per game with an average of 32.2. Their Penalty Kill has also struggled recently with a rate of 76.7% which ranks 23rd. The Oilers also have one of the worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +8.39.
Mike Smith will get the start in net for Edmonton tonight as Mikko Koskinen remains in COVID protocols. Smith has a -5.4 Goals Saved Above Expected on the season is his 8 games played. He has not been great at all this season, especially as of late which makes me wonder why this total is only set at 5.5.
Pick:
EDMONTON OILERS/ NEW YORK ISLANDERS OVER 5.5 (-120)
Both goalies have struggled as of late and while neither teams offensive has been great, Edmonton should have a spark with their new head coach tonight. I fully expect the total to move to 6.0 closer to puck drop so I want to lock this in over night at 5.5.
Other Plays on the Night:
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING IN REGULATION (-180)
Listen, I know this is juicy and I usually hate to lay these numbers but Tampa Bay is one of those teams that rebounds well especially after a loss. While -180 is a bit more than I’d like to lay here, I expected this number to jump to around -200 before puck drop. The Lightning are 4-0-1 on no days rest and 3-0-1 after a loss on no days rest. Elliot will likely get the start which concerns me a bit but Tampa should get it done on the road here.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We have a great slate of NHL games tonight headlined by the marquee matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Colorado Avalanche. I breakdown that game and offer a few more picks. Let’s get into it!
For a complete list of the Odds tonight, where you can shop for the best lines, click the following link.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Colorado Avalanche
Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN +
Tampa Bay Lightning: 30-10-6, 2nd Atlantic (14-6-2 Away)
Colorado Avalanche: 32-8-4, 1st Central (20-2-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
+107
-105
+1.5 (-240)
o6.5 (+105)
Colorado Avalanche
-132
-115
-1.5 (+195)
u6.5 (-125)
Trends:
Tampa Bay are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Colorado’s last 8 games.
Colorado are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
Preview:
These teams have met once before this year, where Tampa Bay lost to Colorado 4-3 in a Shootout. Tampa Bay was a home favorite in that game closing at -120 with the Total being set at 6.0. In that game the Lightning went 0-3 on the PP with the Avalanche going 0-6 on the PP.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning return to the ice for the first time since the All-Star break. In their last game, they barely snuck past San Jose at home winning 3-2 in OT. They’ll now face a much better opponent tonight in the Colorado Avalanche.
Tampa Bay ranks 7th in Goals For Per game with an average of 3.37. However, in their last 10 games they’ve been exceeding that number averaging 3.70 Goals For. Their Power Play ranks 15th in the NHL but, has been better as of late. Nikita Kucherov, who runs their man advantage will return to the lineup tonight as he has exited COVID protocols.
In terms of defensive ability, Tampa Bay is giving up an average of 2.74 Goals Against per game. In their last 10 games, they’ve been better only giving up an average of 2.50. Their Penalty Kill ranks 13th and will have their work cut out for them tonight. Tampa has done a great job of limiting shots from their opponents and they’ll need to do the same tonight if they want to have a chance.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, fresh off an appearance in the All-Star game will get the start tonight. He won the Save Streak competition along with Jack Campbell. In his 36 games played this season he has a +17.4 Goals Saved Above Expected.
Colorado Avalanche
This will also be Colorado’s first game back since the All-Star break. In their last game before break their winning streak of 19 consecutive wins at home came to an end at the hands of the Arizona Coyotes of all teams.
Colorado has the best offensive in the NHL in terms of Goals For per game averaging 4.09. They’ve struggled a bit as of late only averaging 3.50 Goals For per game in their last 10. The Av’s rank 5th in Shots on Goal per game, averaging 35 and have the best shooting percentage. Having the best shooting percentage along with averaging 35 shots per game is a deadly combination that not many teams can compete with. Their Power Play ranks 7th converting at a rate of 25%. They’ll be without Nathan MacKinnon tonight who’s still recovering from an injury.
Defensively, Colorado is giving up an average of 2.91 Goals Against per game. They’ve been much stronger in their last 10 with an average of just 1.60. They do allow the 13th most Shots Against but Tampa doesn’t average a lot of Shots For so I don’t think that’s a major concern tonight. What is an area of concern tonight is their Penalty Kill which ranks 22nd. They also aren’t an extremely disciplined team so Tampa Bay should have several man advantage chances tonight.
Darcy Kuemper will get the start in net for Colorado tonight. He has a +9.9 GSAx on the year in his 31 games played.
Pick:
VALERI NICHUSHKIN OVER 0.5 POINTS (-125) – DraftKings
With MacKinnon out for tonight Nichushkin moves up to the top line with Landeskog and Rantanen. Rantanen and Landeskog are 2nd and 3rd on the team in points with Nichushkin ranking 9th. Playing with these two he’ll have more ice team and more chances to be involved offensively. In his last 6 games, he has 2 goals and 4 assists.
Other Picks For Today:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ CALGARY FLAMES OVER 6.0 (-115) – DraftKings
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS/ OTTAWA SENATORS OVER 6.0 (-125) – DraftKings
ST. LOUIS BLUES IN REGULATION (-160) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Hey guys!! Were back at it with another video for the Podcast! Wager Talk’s Andrew McInnis @McInnisPicks joined me today to chat about Super Bowl, NHL futures and, of course, Free Picks! Check it out below!
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Date: Sunday February 13th 2022 Time: 6:30 PM EST Location: So-Fi Stadium Los Angeles California Weather: 78 degrees with little to no wind
My friends, we have a super bowl and it’s time to try and find some value so we can profit off of some weakness. Now the Super Bowl is usually a pretty sharp line being that it is a stand alone game but there are some trends that tend to suggest the contrary.
BETTING TRENDS:
The winner of the game has covered the spread in 16 straight Super Bowls.
Underdog teams of at least three points are 7-2 outright and 8-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2007.
The Total has been split down the middle, 26-26-2.
Since 2001, underdog teams of at least three points are 12-3 ATS (9-6 outright).
Bengals Key Trends:
The Bengals are 0-2 straight up and 1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl.
The Bengals have covered the spread in seven straight games and were 13-7 ATS on the season.
The Bengals are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 outright as an underdog of at least three points this season, including 6-0 outright and ATS when Joe Burrow plays.
LA Rams Key Trends:
The Rams are 1-3 straight up and 0-3-1 ATS in their previous four Super Bowl appearances.
The Rams are 2-7 against the spread (ATS) against AFC teams in the past two seasons (1-4 ATS this season).
For the season, the Rams are 10-10 ATS and 6-3 ATS in their past nine games.
Sharp Money Splits as of Tuesday 2/8/22 via the Action Network:
As you can see, over the last 16 Super Bowls, the spread hasn’t even come into play. As a matter of fact, over 90% of all Super Bowls, the spread hasn’t factored in. This means if you like a favorite, lay the points, and if you like the dog, take the money line. Am I buying this massive trend? Let’s just say somewhat. Let’s get into the Xs and Os of the handicap.
The Bengals seemed to have overachieved some to get this far. I thought that they were dead in the water against the Chiefs and KC decided to not score points in the second half due to a pace change, and if it wasn’t for the Titans 3 bad turnovers, I think that they win this game. Cincinnati is 11th in both offensive and defensive EPA telling me that they are just an above average team. The Bengals offense averages 26.6 points per game and their defense gives up 25.5. The Bengals are only .2 net yards per play. The Bengals biggest weakness on defense is against the run allowing 4.5 rushing yards per attempt. The Bengals biggest weakness on offense is their offensive line ranking only 31st in adjusted sack rate and 15th in adjusted line yards. The Bengals biggest strength is their passing game and Joe Burrow who is 3rd in drop back EPA + completion percentage over expectation. They rank 7th in EPA per pass. If the Bengals have another strength it is Zack Taylor’s knowledge of coach Sean McVey of the Rams being that he has worked under McVeigh before being hired by the Bengals.
The Rams have seemed to underachieve some thus far being only 10-10 ATS. Their crumble vs Tampa Bay was based on some bad end of game fumbles juxtaposed with some Tom Brady Magic. Stafford showed poise winning that game. The Rams also out-gained the 49ers 396 yards to 282 yet only won by 3 points due to some bad red zone turnovers. LA scores 27.7 points per game and gives up only 21.4. The Rams are at .8 net yards per play while ranking 6th in both offensive and defensive EPA for the season. LA’s strengths are really all over the place. They have some shut down corners that stop the pass ranking 7th in opponent drop back EPA. Matt Stafford ranks 4th in drop back EPA + CPOE. Their offense ranks 6th in adjusted line yards and their offense under Sean McVey has some very nice misdirection plays that you will see in this huge game. The Rams are animals on the defensive front ranking 8th in adjusted sack rate and trending up now with Von Miller on board. If the Rams have a weakness, it’s that their offensive line only ranks 29th in power success rate which is for the run, and their defense only ranks 19th in power success rate. The Rams main weakness is over-pursuing the QB and getting burned by screens as you have seen San Francisco do to them all year with Deebo Samuel.
The Matchup really favors LA here. The Rams have a 5.2 net points per game advantage over the Bengals and they are playing at home. They also have a higher ranking in offensive and defensive EPA by 5 points each. The Rams defensive line should eat well this game raking 8th in adjusted sack rate to the Bengals offensive line ranking 31st. Joe Burrow’s sack prop of 3.5 shows that. The Rams have a .6 net yards per play advantage in this game. I can see the Rams moving the ball down field at will using all of those weapons that they have on offense. I also think that they will be moving the ball methodically, while draining clock. If the Bengals want any chance in this game, it will be the screen pass and throwing to RB check-downs in the flat. Otherwise, this game could get quite ugly. Lastly, the big kicker is that LA has had a much harder schedule than the Bengals ranking 2nd on team rankings to the Bengals 25th. This shows me that LA is battle tested.
Verdict: If I was setting this line, I would make it Rams -5.5. My final score and numbers from my algorithm and matchup analysis have the Rams winning this game 28-20 with some upside. I also think that the first half could start out slow being that this is such a crucial game to both teams. The lack of aggressiveness usually leads to punts and field Goals. I think that the way that I am going to approach this game is by taking the first half under 24 (Now 23.5) for a few units as well as taking an alt line on the rams -9.5 +175 for 1.5 stars. The prop game is where I will be most invested not counting my hedge on my future for the Bengals at 18-1. Have fun everyone and remember to enjoy the game! Don’t bet any amount of money that will make it miserable!
Coming off a 3-3, +0.2u night, I now sit at 9-4 on the week! I’m rolling with 3 plays for tonight, 2 of which are reserved for premium members. Premium plays have hit at a 58.4% clip and netted my members +49u since Sept. 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
The Grizzlies enter tonight having won 6 of their last 7, with the average margin of victory of those 6 wins at 16 PPG. Memphis ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency over their last 3 games and 8th in defensive efficiency over that same stretch. The Pistons, on the other hand, couldn’t enter this game feeling worse about themselves. They were blown out by 30 in Dallas the other night and have now lost 9 of their last 10 games. This team ranks last in offensive efficiency over the course of the season as well as in their last 3 games, and the defense ranks in the bottom 5 as well. Led by multiple young and rising stars, Memphis doesn’t seem to overlook favorable matchups like this, so I have no problem continuing to ride the Grizzlies wave, and I certainly don’t mind fading a team as poor as Detroit. The Grizzlies should cover the full game number, but I like them more in the 1st Half strictly because that’s when I am sure we’re going to be seeing their “A” lineup.
This is the first time these teams have met this season after facing off in the NBA Finals last year. Phoenix(44-10) has every quality of a team you want to be betting on consistently, but the Bucks have won each of their last 4 games and obviously had the Suns’ number in last year’s Finals. I think you can make a really good case for either side here, but regardless, this is going to have a playoff type of feel to it. When you combine that with how these teams match up, this total seems far too high. While each offense ranks in the top 5 in offensive efficiency, each team plays very solid defense as well; you’re essentially getting two teams who match up quite evenly. Unlike most teams, the Suns have the physicality in the paint, led by DeAndre Ayton, to combat Giannis. While neither team runs at a “slow” pace, I don’t expect the tempo of this game to be lightning quick either. I think each of these teams bring their “A” game tonight, causing this Grade A matchup to stay under this high total.
See Grizzlies explanation below. If I’m willing to lay 7 with them in the 1st Half, I’m sure that they’ll take a lead into the break.
The Mavericks will host a Clippers squad that is still short-handed with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard out. While the Clippers have played admirably at times in the absence of their stars, this team is a shell of what it is with those guys in the lineup. LAC has had a tough time stepping up in competition as of late; they lost by 24 at home to Milwaukee on Sunday and then by 26 on the road in Memphis on Tuesday. The Mavs, on the other hand, have won 3 straight and are playing the 5th game of a 6 game home stand; Dallas hasn’t played a back-to-back in almost 2 weeks. Not only that, but they still have revenge on their minds after being knocked out of the playoffs by LAC last year. Mavs -6.5 just missed my card, but in what should be a very low-variance game, I feel confident in Dallas winning tonight.
As I expected, Duke laid an egg on Monday against Virginia after demolishing North Carolina last Saturday. Duke had that game locked up before totally crumbling in the final minutes. To be honest, because they ended up losing that game, I like them even more tonight. This Blue Devils squad has what it takes on both ends of the floor to make a deep tournament run in Coach K’s final season, and they’ve responded well off of let down performances this season. Clemson is a team that finds itself out of tournament contention, which is quite a statement considering how down the ACC is this year. The Tigers rank outside the Top 100 in defensive efficiency, and quite frankly, I have a hard time understanding how they rank as high as 50th in offensive efficiency. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Duke; while I’m not quite willing to lay 6.5 with them on the road in this spot, I think they show out well tonight and win this one.
