Morning, team!
I’m adding Georgia +11.5, 1.5 units.
Georgia and Texas A&M aren’t two of the best teams in the SEC and that’s part of my handicap. The Bulldogs have played well recently, battling with other rivals in an attempt to salvage their season. I think Georgia fights hard here again – this number is too inflated, especially for a team as flawed as A&M is (A&M doesn’t rank in the top 100 offenses in the country, #113 according to Haslametrics). I’ll play on the Dawgs to cover tonight.
881 Indiana St 1H +6* at Drake/ INDST +10.5*
Potential flat spot for Drake after huge win over Loyola-Chicago in their last outing. Market has been a little too high on INDST and their backers have been getting punished. However, the Sycamores come into this one as double-digit dogs for the sixth time on the season, five of which they covered. INDST also comes into this one at 5-2 ATS as away dogs while Drake is 6-6 as home favs. Drake is 5-6 1H ATS at home so I don’t mind splitting this one up with the extra for Indiana State in the first half.
Market is pushing this one towards Indiana State and I agree, as Indiana State still seems to have some fight left in them off a game where they could’ve beat a surging Southern Illinois team over the weekend. Lean the total over as well tonight as INDST is 9-2 O\U on the road, second highest over team in the MVC, but market is pulling this total down so buyer beware.
Check me out at my Patreon where I have 4 plays tonight, including another 2 unit look in tonight’s college action. All plays are public there day after the games, only +5.72u in February but +42.93 units since the last week of November!
I enjoyed a 5-2 weekend in college hoops, and today, I’m back at it with 3 plays. In addition to this free play, I have 2 CBB plays reserved for my premium members. With a 5-1 weekend, my premium plays are now hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members +47.33u since Sept. 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
*CBB(1u): Baylor -5(-110) @ Oklahoma State–8 PM CT
I know that public sentiment has waned on Baylor over the past few weeks, but this is absolutely a game they should win by double digits. While they’ve lost at Texas Tech and Kansas recently, they’ve also beaten Kansas State by 15 on the road, Oklahoma by 14 on the road, and West Virginia by 9 in the road. Those latter 3 opponents are very similar to the type of matchup they’ll be getting tonight facing a 13-13 Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys play a good brand of defense, but they’ve actually slipped more than 10 spots in defensive efficiency metrics over the past few weeks. On the offensive end of the floor, they are anything but efficient, shooting just 30% from 3, 67% from the free-throw line, and ranking 132nd in offensive efficiency. This is also a revenge game for Baylor after they laid an egg at home against OSU earlier this season, so I have no doubt that we’ll get a great effort from Scott Drew’s team tonight. I understand that the injury bug has bitten Baylor pretty hard recently, but they are still more than capable of mopping the floor with OSU tonight. I think Baylor makes a statement and wins this game comfortably.
*CBB(1u): Penn State +3(-110) @ Maryland–6 PM CT
Maryland won on Friday night at Nebraska, but prior to that, the Terps had lost their previous 5 games by an average of 11 PPG. A lone win against the worst team in the Big Ten is nowhere near enough to convince me that this team has turned a corner. Maryland has actually won by double digits on the road two other times in conference play this season, and the following game when they came back home, they lost by double-digits each game. Penn State is coming off a really good week; they beat Michigan State at home earlier in the week before blowing Minnesota out of the water. The Nittany Lions play a really good brand of defense(#39 in defensive efficiency), which allows them to compete with virtually everybody in the Big Ten. I have no problem taking the points with the road ‘dog in this one.
*ML Parlay(0.8u): Ohio State, Syracuse, Baylor(+152)–6 PM CT
Ohio State is coming off a pretty bad double-digit loss at home to Iowa, but this sets up to be a prime bounce-back spot facing off with Indiana. S*** has really hit the fan for the Hoosiers over the past few weeks, as they enter this game off of 4 straight losses and won’t get any easier of a matchup tonight. The schedule does get easier for the Hoosiers as they close out the season, and I would expect them to turn things around following a loss tonight. Still, given how much easier the Buckeyes create points for themselves, I see them bouncing back at home tonight.
Syracuse came off a 7 day break in their schedule and absolutely pummeled Boston College by 20 on Saturday. In this spot, they get an even easier matchup facing a Georgia Tech team that is playing their second road game in 3 days. Sure, GT won at Pittsburgh on Saturday, but the Yellow Jackets rank 246th in offensive efficiency and aren’t built to exploit Cuse’s 2-3 zone. Syracuse is really good offensively, and that’s especially true when playing at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse rolls in this one.
See Baylor explanation below.
Putting down bets on these Thursday lines – let’s see how they move.
Celtics -3.5 * First game with Ben Simmons? Don’t care. If Durant is back (I don’t think he will be), this is still an advantageous line b/c he’ll be cold – coming back from an MCL tear is no joke.
Grizzlies/Wolves over 229.5 ** For obvious reasons, the pace and output of these two teams should feed into each other following the break. This line is WAY too low.
Warriors -6.5 ** Any questions? Steph is coming off that All Star performance, and the Warriors needed the break to get back to their old selves. I don’t care that Portland is at home – this is a bad team that needs young A. Simons to play exceptionally well to have a chance at winning. All Warriors for me.
Bad beat Sunday had us losing more – gross – but it’s a new week and the NBA returns in 3 days! Don’t hate that. Here are my plays today:
Happy Presidents Day everyone! We only have a few games happening, with the first matchup starting at 1:00 PM ET. I’ll breakdown that matchup between the Avalanche and Bruins and offer a few other plays on the day.
Colorado Avalanche @ Boston Bruins
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Colorado Avalanche | -154 | -165 | -1.5 (+145) | o6.0 (-110) |
| Boston Bruins | +152 | +140 | +1.5 (-175) | u6.0 (-110) |
Trends:
Previous Matchups:
Preview:
Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche have started off their four game road trip hot, winning their first two games. They defeated the Golden Knights 2-0 on Wednesday, then took down the Sabres 5-3 on Saturday. They’ll take on the Bruins today before heading to Detroit to face the Red Wings on Wednesday. Colorado is 8-1-1 in their last 10 and continue to increase the gap between them and the Blues in the Central Division.
Colorado ranks 2nd in terms of Goals For per game averaging 3.98. In their Last 10 they’ve been averaging 3.30 Goals For per game. They’ve faced some solid defense teams during that stretch but have had a relatively full lineup which is some what concerning. I understand every team goes through up and down stretches and I’m sure the Av’s will figure things out given the talent on their roster. During that stretch they’ve averaged roughly the same amount of Shots on Goal For per game, around 35, so again, I’m not so much worried about them finding their scoring tough. Even with their inability to capitalize on chances as of late, they still have the 3rd best Shooting % in the NHL. Their Power Play ranks 10th, converting at a rate of 23.7%.
If you’re looking to target some player props, I would start with Cale Makar who’s on a four game point streak tallying 6 assists during that stretch. Nathan MacKinnon is also on a four game point streak with two goals and two assists.
Defensively, Colorado has been much better in their last 10 with a Goals Against Average of 1.90 per game in their Last 10. On the season they average 2.8 Goals Against per game which ranks 12th. They allow an average of 30.6 Shots Against but have been averaging slightly below that number in their last 10 (29.60). Their Penalty Kill should have their work cut out for them tonight as they rank 21st and face a Bruins Power Play that ranks 5th. In Colorado’s last 10 games, their Penalty Kill has been much better with a 83.33% success rate.
Darcy Kuemper looks to be the starter tomorrow for Colorado. He currently ranks 8th in the NHL with a +15.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). Kuemper has also recorded a shutout in two of his last three starts. He did start in their previous matchup against the Bruins, where he finished with a +1.95 GSAx.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins wrapped up a four game road trip on Saturday against the Ottawa Senators where they won 3-2 in OT thanks to David Pastrnak. Since returning from the All-Star break, Boston has struggled going 2-4. They’ve faced some pretty good teams during that stretch like Carolina and Pittsburgh but have dropped some games to inferior opponents. The Bruins take on the Colorado Avalanche today before starting a six game west coast road trip. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare on that trip giving the inconsistency they’re having as team right now, especially on offense.
On the year Boston ranks 21st in Goal For per game averaging 2.84. However, as I previously mentioned, they’ve been struggling as of late up front and are only averaging 1.80 Goals For in their last 10. They’ve been averaging about 3 shots less per game during that stretch compared to their season average of 35.0. The Bruins Power Play ranks 7th in the NHL converting at a rate of 24.8% but have a 16.67% conversion rate in their last 10. You can see it by the offensive metrics how much the Bruins are struggling offensively. They’ve been without Marchand who will return from his six game suspension on Thursday.
In terms of defense, Boston has also struggled in their last 10 with a 3.00 Goals Against average compared to their season long average of 2.84, ranking 21st. By no means is this a Boston Bruins team of old, that can shut teams down and win low scoring games. They’ve been giving up more shots against as of late which has hurt their young goaltender Swayman. Their Penalty Kill ranks 10th with a 83.3% success rate but, just like the Bruins, hasn’t been as great in their last few games.
Jeremey Swayman is expected to get the start for the Bruins tomorrow. He ranks 12th in terms of GSAx with a +9.7. In his last three games he’s recorded a shutout and has only allowed three goals against.
Pick:
Other Plays on the Night:
Player Props will be added later as they’re released. I will post them on Twitter and on the Blog.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Don’t forget to sign up for a FREE sports handicapping class for NCAA Basketball on Tuesday February 22nd Taught by Kyle Hunter, Kiev O’Neil and a special guest Simon Gerzberg from Shot Quality Bets! 8:30PM ET 5:30PM PT! To sign up please Click Here!
Missouri State vs Northern Iowa -2 O/U 134
Missouri State has been quietly moving p in the rankings winning 9 out of their last 11 games. They are an amazing 54.9% effective FG and number 1 in the Missouri Valley conference on defense. They do not turn the ball over and are a well balance team.
Northern Iowa is a solid smaller team who actually beat Missouri State on the road back on January 8th. They have been a pretty good team themselves when their opponents are not hitting shots. They move the ball well but are weak shooting the 3 ball ranking 142nd in the nation in 3 point percentage. They are also weak in defending the 3 allowing 35.24% to go in. The biggest thing that I hate about Northern Iowa is that their defense as a whole allows 53% effective FG% ranking 308th in the nation. They only rank 8th in the conference allowing 52.7%. The biggest tell here for me is that Missouri State is great on the road ranking 2nd in away from home play on Haslametrics while UNI ranks 212th at home. I think that Missouri State gets some road revenge here.
Missouri State +2 – 2 stars
