The Bulls enter this game off of 3 straight wins and will have revenge on their minds tonight facing a Spurs team that beat them by 9 just a few weeks ago. The Bulls are dealing with injury issues and, unfortunately, they will be without Zach LaVine tonight. However, Demar DeRozan is playing some of the best basketball in the league right now, and Chicago has found plenty of pieces that have stepped up as of late. San Antonio comes into this game off of 2 straight impressive road wins, but with this being their 4th straight road game, I think this is the spot they slip up. Chicago is one of the top offenses in the NBA, while San Antonio is even worse defensively than their 18th efficiency rating would lead you to believe. This line is a stark overreaction to the LaVine injury and gives a 22-win Spurs team far too much credit. 2u plays are rare for me, but I’m backing the Bulls heavy here to kick off the week. At 3-3.5, I like this as a 2u play. At 4-4.5, I like this as a 1.5u play. At 5-5.5, I like this as a 1u play. I wouldn’t talk you off of playing this at 6, but that’s where I think we start to lose too much value.
*NBA(1u): Clippers 1H TT UNDER 55(-120) vs Warriors–9:30 PM CT
Without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, this Clippers team is simply not very good. They rank just 26th in offensive efficiency this season and now have to match up with the best defense in the league. Golden State is not in great current form, but they were able to win a primetime game against the Lakers the other night, which should get them back to playing their brand of basketball. With defenses like Miami and Dallas playing so well this year, it can’t be said enough how impressive it is that Golden State has held that #1 defensive efficiency rating for virtually the entirety of this season. I like Golden State to lock down a slow-paced, talentless offense in the 1st Half of this game.
Monday card up and led by a powerful NBA Platinum supreme Total and a Powerful NCAB Valentines Day Blowout. NBA Comp play below.
The NBA Comp play is on Chicago at 8:10 PM. The Bulls have revenge here an are #1 in defensive field goal percentage while the spurs are ranked 23rd overall on defense. The spurs are in a negative league wide database system that play goes against road teams that are off back to back road dog wins while scoring 117 or more in both and a win three back. These teams are 0-6 straight up and to the spread over the past 27 seasons. Chicago have covered 4 of 5 favored at home and 4 of 5 taking on a team under.500 and have covered 5 of 7 at home vs the spurs who have failed to cover 9 of 11 vs a winning team. Look for the Bulls to cover. On Monday a Powerful card is up and led by an NBA Platinum supreme Top Level Total and a Valentines Day Blowout in NCAAB Action.See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on and start the week big. For the NBA Comp play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender sports
Well we nailed the Super Bowl narratives – unders, Rams win, Bengals cover. Not mad about that. A REALLY bad beat on the Odell prop with him going down early in the 2nd, and the 1Q under probably should have hit, too.
Onto a shallow card in the NBA. May send in more picks later.
NBA Picks:
Warriors -6.5 **
Golden State allowed LAL to play way too close recently – this should be an all-hands-on-deck game for Curry, Klay and the gang against an LAC offense that’s extremely under-talented in comparison. I’d take it up to -7.5
Nuggets -10.5 **
All chalk today but this is what Denver does – they LOVE blowing out bad teams. Orlando is banged up too; this number isn’t too high for me. I’d take it up to 11.5.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
It’s been one HELL of a year in the NFL for your boy! Placing 5th in the NFL Circa Sports Million was a dream come true, but we promise– this is just the beginning.
We’re hitting at 57% in the NBA and 60% in CBB right now – survey the betting world and it would be hard to find anyone hitting at that rate; that’s just the truth. We’re also up 45 units since Jan 1 across all premium picks. Click this link for a very fair price on my premiums sent directly to your mailbox, every single morning! Onto my Super Bowl plays:
Odell Beckham over 5.5 receptions (+100), 2 units: I wrote this as my “free play of the week” in my newsletter (DM me on Twitter @FarleyBets if you want to receive my weekly email), so I might as well post it here, too!
There’s a good chance Odell Beckham Jr., the enigmatic wide receiver who was signed by the Rams in mid-November, plays a key role in this year’s Super Bowl. Love him or hate him, OBJ is as hyped as any player entering the championship game. Underutilized in New York and Cleveland for too many seasons, it seems Odell finally found a place where he can maximize his skill set. Since the start of the playoffs, Odell and Rams QB Matthew Stafford connected for 19 receptions in 3 games. OBJ has become that go-to, first-down WR when Stafford needs a safety net, especially since Cooper Kupp is routinely double-teamed by opposing defenses. The Bengals doubled Tyreek Hill last week, which proved effective, and we assume they’ll do the same with Cupp. Cupp just won Offensive Player of the Year and it’s well deserved — he’s been virtually unstoppable as LAR’s #1 receiver all season. But it also garners a lot of attention – Odell will be needed and needed often.
On most teams, OBJ would be the #1 pass catcher. Expect the talented WR to out-run and out-maneuver his coverage in short yardage situations throughout this contest. I love this over prop for a great value at even money.
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Rams/Bengals 1Q under 9.5 points (-120), 2.4 units: This is traditionally one of my favorite bets, and it’s plain to see why. Check out how the last few title game totals have gone in the 1st quarter of action:
2021: 10 points
2020: 10 points
2019: 0 points
2018: 12 points
2017: 0 points
2016: 10 points
2015: 0 points
2014: 8 points
2013: 10 points
2012: 9 points
For those of you who aren’t math majors out there, that’s 6.9 points per 1st quarter over the last 10 years. And I know what you’re thinking– that’s a LOT of totals that hit 10 or were right around 10, Chris… so how much value is there, really? I say there’s plenty.
What’s different about this Super Bowl is pretty obvious. We have two QBs who have never been to the “big dance” before. Joe Burrow is only in his FIRST full season as a starting quarterback after he famously tore his ACL in Week 11 last year. Matthew Stafford is trying to prove why he should have been here a long time ago. Either way, both of these QBs will feel the pressure from the onset of this contest. I’d say there’s a 70-75% chance that both offenses will play conservatively at first – lots of short passes, screens, and runs to get their offenses in rhythm and to take pressure off the throwers.
Not to mention, there’s plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for the other offenses’ attack. There’s a reason why the game total has fallen. Fortunately for us, the 1Q total has not. I’m all over it.
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Other insights and recommendations:
Avoid dumb bets like how many times announcers will say this or that, how long the halftime show will last, the color of the winning team’s Gatorade bash, etc. Is burning money your goal? Cool, didn’t think so.
Play on your props based on game narratives.
Do you think the Rams defensive front dominates? Play on Bengals yards under.
Do you think both offenses struggle in the first half? Play on unders.
Do you think the Rams will win the first half? Do you think the Bengals can come back in the second half? Look at half/quarter sides.
The Super Bowl should be fun. Yes, it’s a great way to win money and wager on valuable props, but if you’re overly investing your bankroll in this ONE contest, chances are it could very well ruin your watching experience. Plenty of opportunities to bet on sports will be available all week – you don’t need to exacerbate your exposure.
In addition to this free play, I have a CBB play for my premium members today. Premium plays are hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members +45.6u since September 2021. Click here to learn more about becoming a premium member!
*NBA(1u): Timberwolves 1H TT OVER 62(-120) @ Pacers–2 PM CT
The Timberwolves have been one of the better offenses in the NBA this season, and over their last 3 games, they rank 6th in offensive efficiency. Over Minnesota’s past 8 games, they’ve averaged over 125 PPG. Indiana has a bottom 5 defense in the NBA and are vulnerable to getting run off the court given every worthwhile(and healthy) piece they had was traded at the Deadline. This is the last of a 4 game road trip for Minnesota. They enter this game off of two losses and should have all the motivation to take care of business today in what is a very favorable matchup. The T-Wolves run at a Top 5 pace in the league, and I think they use that tempo to put this game away early before heading back home.
*CBB(1u): UCONN/St John’s OVER 150.5(-110)–11 AM CT
St John’s runs at the 3rd fastest pace in the country; while the Red Storm aren’t always efficient offensively, they score over 79 points/game off of their shear tempo. UCONN is playing its second straight road game after coming off of a tough loss at Xavier on Friday night. This is somewhat of a sleepy spot for the Huskies, and I think where they could start to slip and lose focus is on the defensive end of the floor. St John’s just played a tight game with Villanova, and while UCONN is solid defensively, they are a clear step down from the Wildcats’ defensive efficiency. With all this said, I expect UCONN to find plenty of success on the offensive end of the floor given that they rank 24th in offensive efficiency and the Johnnies rank outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency. This total is not quite high enough when you factor in St John’s’ style of play as well as the spot for UCONN. I’ll play the Over in this one.
Said I wouldn’t send you all an email today but hey, it’s hard getting out of routines. And the routines are a big part of the reason we win.
I would definitely lean to the over on the MIN/IND game today, but Indiana’s offense is extremely volatile. I wouldn’t put many units on that. Also lean Hawks at +6.5, their offense is considerably more potent than Boston’s, but lately the Celtics have looked REALLY good. Tough game.
All Super Bowl for me, today. Enjoy your family and enjoy the big game!
SB Picks:
1Q under 9.5 **
1H under 23.5 *
Odell over 5.5 catches (+110) ** (this is great value)
Bengals +4 *
Bengals 3rd QTR ML (+100) **
Parlay: Rams ML + under 48.5 ** (2 units to win 3.88 units)
Uzomah to score a TD (+400) *
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
The Super Bowl is here and the prop market is booming. I have made some prop plays for the podcasts and members over the last 2 weeks, but I also wanted to give some out here for free. There are many reasons for these props, and even though I name just a few, I go into more detail on the podcasts. If you would like to know more and get a few more plays, please listen to our podcast episode 11 or check out our Prop-cast at @SportsWagerU. Note that some lines have moved, and if it isn’t within 10 cents, take it at your own risk. Make sure that you shop around. Here is what we got cooking. Good Luck Everyone!
Joe Burrow over 10.5 yards rushing -125 – 1.5 star – Huge games mean desperate situations.
Matt Stafford over 5.5 yards rushing -110 – 1 star – Huge games mean desperate situations.
First touchdown scorer – LA Rams defense +2800 – .5 star (long shot but what the hell) – That D is fierce and I can see some mistakes from young burrow.
Super Bowl MVP Props: Von Miller +5000 – .5 stars (long shot with value) – History tends to repeat itself and he will get more shots at the QB than Donald who is at a terrible price.
Super Bowl LVI – First Score Method Vs Super Bowl LVI – First Score Method Field Goal +150 – 1.5 stars – Things will tighten up in the Red Zone. This prop has been good to me.
Tee Higgens over 5.5 receptions -105 – 1.5 stars – Jalen Ramsey on Jamar Chase. Uzomah injury. ‘Nuff said.
Joe Mixon over 25.5 receiving yards – 1 star – He does this all the time. Rams susceptible to the screen.
Total rushing yards under 197.5 -115 – 2 stars – I see a potential that running the ball doesn’t work well against both Ds. If a team is down a lot, it will be pass pass pass.
Team to gain most rushing yards Rams -120 – 1 star – Spread says so.
Halftime – Will Snoop Dogg Be Wearing Any Rams Clothing No +250 – .5 star (or what you can get down) – Found this on MyBookie. I doubt Snoop wears Rams Clothing in this big of a game.
2022 Super Bowl-Gatorade Bath Before Final Whistle Vs 2022 Super Bowl-Gatorade Bath Before Final Whistle Yes – Gatorade Before Final Whistle -160 – .5 star (or what you can get down) – Spread says that Rams will take a knee.
Sunday card led by the Top Rated Undefeated ALL Time SYSTEM play in SUPER Bowl 56 along with the Total and Props and Several Powerful Angles. NCAAB Comp Play below.
BONUS PROP—Opening Kick off a touch back -110
The NCAAB Comp play is on Rider at 1:00 Eastern.The Broncos are rolling and have won 4 straight including a 14 point win on the road 10 days ago at Siena. Now they have them at home with Siena coming off 2 huge upset wins including a shocker over Iona at home in their last game. Siena is ranked 302nd in scoring and has failed to cover in their last 8 road dog losses. Rider has covered the last 3 vs a winning team and 7 of 10 after allowing 50 or less. Rider has won 4 of the last five here in the series and we will back them today and lay the small number. On Sunday we have a Huge play in SUPER Bowl 56 with a Rare System that has never lost in super Bowl history. The game has several powerful angles and indicators along with a comprehensive analysis that includes the Total and powerful props. There will also be hoops on the Sunday card. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out as we end the week big. For the NCAAB Comp play. Play on Rider. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
