Hey guys!! Were back at it with another video for the Podcast! Today, Dana Lane joined me to chat about the Super Bowl and gave out 3 NHL plays and 1 CBB for tonight (2/2)! Oh, and we are 6-1 in our last 7 CBB plays and hitting 60% in our last 47!
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306153 USC-Upstate -3.5** at Hampton
I like the best road ATS team in the Big South tonight against a Hampton Pirates squad who has a surprising 5-2 Conference ATS record. The Spartans have a significant offensive edge in every metric except in rebounds. What does concern me in this one is when the Pirates have a shorter line of +4 or less, they have been 4-0 ATS. Hampton also had a couple of impressive wins back in December (1-point wins versus Norfolk St and William & Mary). That could explain the shorter line tonight.
That being said, when facing the top half of teams in conference play, the lines have been bigger and more favorable for the Pirates. I have no issue with a bigger play on the better offensive team on the road against coming in with the highest momentum rating on Haslametrics.com. Give me the short number against a Hampton team who is struggling to keep up with the top of the conference at 2-5 SU. Let’s go Spartans!
My Patreon left some skid marks in the end of January but still ended up +20 units on what’s been a decent basketball season. See my track record or follow me on the Action App (at Kris_Lundborg) as all of my Patreon plays are posted there before tipoff as well since November.
I kicked off the month of February with a 3-2 night and a free play winner on UNC -3.5. In addition to tonight’s 2 free plays, I also have 4 plays reserved for my premium members. Premium plays are hitting at a 58.3% clip and have netted my members +44.9u since Sept. 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Notre Dame/Miami OVER 141.5(-110)–6 PM CT
The betting market has reacted quite heavily to Notre Dame’s flat performance against Duke the other night that saw the Irish score just 43 points. This total has been steamed down, while everybody loves the ‘Canes tonight. That being said, I think what we’ve seen is an overreaction. Even with that stinker performance, Notre Dame still ranks 63rd in offensive efficiency and, more importantly, will face a Miami defense that ranks just 156th in defensive efficiency. That said, Miami has a legit top-20 offense and has scored at will in their home arena. Neither team pushes the pace too much, which keeps this a 1u play for me, but there is too much value on this Over for me to pass up.
*CBB(1u): East Carolina +1(-110) vs Temple–6 PM CT
These teams met about a month ago at Temple; East Carolina held a 6-point halftime lead before stumbling in the second half and eventually losing by 3. However, I think this spot sets up well for the Pirates to get some revenge. This will be Temple’s second-straight road game after they lost by 8 at SMU on Saturday. As a northeastern school, it’s not exactly an easy travel spot as they have now gone from Philly to Dallas and now to Greenville. Temple seemed to be hitting a groove the middle of January, but a 2 week pause in their schedule has seemed to throw a wrench in whatever momentum they had built up. The Owls rank just 178th in offensive efficiency, so in a bad travel spot and this being a revenge game for ECU, I think the wrong team is favored here.
*CBB(1.5u): Villanova -4.5(-110) @ Marquette–9 PM CT
Marquette has been a huge surprise this season; before Sunday’s loss at Providence, the Golden Eagles had won their past 7 games. Just 2 weeks ago, Marquette went on the road as 13.5 point underdogs and beat this Villanova team outright. In that game, Marquette hit 13 3-pointers while Villanova shot just 25% from behind the arc and 38% from the floor. I think Marquette can continue to excel against most of the Big East, but this Villanova team is a cut above the rest. Jay Wright’s squad ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, while Marquette has fallen to 68th in that same department. Villanova is a legitimate title contender and solid team, so for this line to come down 9 points from the prior matchup is egregious in my mind. I think there is a lot of value on ‘Nova tonight, making this my best bet.
*CBB(1u): Wake Forest -12.5(-110) vs Pittsburgh–6 PM CT
Pittsburgh is a straight “bet against” team for me, so when you add in that this is their second straight road game, this becomes a pretty easy play for me to go with. Wake Forest has dominated ACC teams that struggle on the offensive end of the floor; they beat Florida State by 22, Georgia Tech by 16, and Boston College by 30. Given that Pitt ranks just 252nd in offensive efficiency, I expect a top 50 defense in Wake Forest to get plenty of stops tonight. This should be a 20+ point blowout win for the Demon Deacons.
*CBB(1u): Arkansas/Georgia OVER 151(-110)–6 PM CT
The public seems to love this Under, and I can’t quite figure out why. Arkansas runs at the 17th fastest pace in CBB, is averaging nearly 80 PPG this season, and will face a Georgia defense that ranks just 299th in defensive efficiency. Georgia has improved on the offensive end of the floor throughout SEC play and also runs at a Top 100 pace in CBB. I think this eclipses the posted total no matter the margin of victory for Arkansas.
*NBA(1u): Thunder +12(-110) @ Mavericks–7:40 PM CT
These teams squared off twice in the month of January, with Dallas winning both matchups. However, Oklahoma City lost their last meeting in Dallas by just 2 points and were also competitive in the prior 9 point loss. Oklahoma City enters this game off of a 17 point home win against the Trail Blazers, and they lost their prior 2 games against the Bulls and Pacers by a combined 4 points. Dallas is without Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr right now, and given their slower-paced style, I don’t think they’re a team built to consistently cover double-digit spreads. Call me crazy, but I love the Thunder catching 12 tonight.
Kiev O’Neil is on a 20-3 run in college basketball. Get his premium plays right here and thank you for your support! Click Here!
Wisconsin vs Illinois -7.5 O/U 135.5
This should be a great game to night with the Fighting FIBs hosting the relentless Sconnies. Illinois is finally healthy with Kofi Cockburn back in the lineup after a nasty concussion he took from a Zach Edey elbow to the head a few weeks back. Since he came back, they played one game at Northwestern and won by three points. It also looks like the Illini will be getting their best guard back in Andre Curbello, who was in Covid Protocols. Will he be rusty? Remains to be seen. The Illini are stacked once again this year, but they might have some issues matching up against a strange Wisconsin team here at home. The Badgers are not that physical inside but they are tall with four guys in the rotation that are 6’9 and higher. They should at least be able to slow Cockburn down some who dominates inside and tends to shoot free throws like Shaq. The other issue for the FIBs is that Wisconsin has some star power themselves with Johnny Davis who averages 21.4 points per game and plays a heck of a lot of D. Brad Davison is the senior leader of this team shooting a nice 38.9% from three point land. Lastly, Wisconsin is that strange team that is only ranked 25th on Kenpom yet has a great record quality ranking 4th in the nation. This means that Wisconsin does great against the good teams and tends to play bad against the bad teams. Well, Illinois is look at as a very good team and they fit the bill for a close game here. Lastly, Wisconsin isn’t the greatest shooting team but they do take care of the ball ranking number two in offensive turnovers. Illinois can be sloppy at times ranking 213th turning the ball 19.2% of the time. Grab the Badgers +7.5 here and hope for an all out win.
Wisconsin +7.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Hi All!
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
AYO! A 3-0 day in the NBA, and +6 units to boot! Slap my ass and call me Sally, that’ll do!
Tough break last week as we had Luke List to finish top 40 and he wins the American Express outright.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am also features multiple courses with a cut after the third day. Unlike last year, amateurs and celebrities will be able to compete. It’s always one of the more popular events for the fans and provides some great content given the list of characters that “compete” here.
Now let’s breakdown this weeks event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and try to find some winners in this very lackluster field.
General Tournament Information:
Pebble Beach Golf Links (2 Rounds)
Spyglass Hill Golf Course (1 Round)
Monterey Peninsula Country Club (1 Round)
Course/ Tournament Overview:
In 2021, this event, along with other events that feature a Pro-Am format did not have any amateurs participate due to the ongoing pandemic. This year, they return to their normal format which will include several celebrities. As a Bills fan, I must note that Josh Allen will be making his debut at this event, and unfortunately, not be practicing for the Super Bowl… Okay, back to golf.
The Tournament was founded back in 1937 as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Amateur. In 1986, the AT&T Corporation became the title sponsor and has been ever since. The tournament has rotated between several courses through it’s history but has stuck with the current three since 2010.
Course Guides/ Scorecard:
For the third week in a row, we see a tournament that utilizes multiple courses. However, this will be the last rotating course set-up we see this season. Players will rotate between Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Thursday through Saturday, playing a round at each. Once they’ve completed a round at each course, the Top 60 golfers and ties will advance to Sunday for the final round which is held at Pebble Beach.
Unfortunately we don’t have shot tracker data for Spyglass Hill or Monterey Peninsula so we’ll have to rely on Pebble Beach. While this is a slight inconvenience, Pebble Beach is the only course that will host two rounds so it’s not all that bad.
Pebble Beach is only 6,972 yards making it one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour. That being said, due to the layout, it forces many players to layup on most holes. This course is all about setting up your approach shot as it has some of the smallest greens on Tour averaging 3,500 sq. ft. With the smaller green sizes, Greens in Regulation percentages are lower than the Tour average here. Given the importance of approach shots, driving accuracy is another key stat to pay attention to. Besides the tough layout, limiting long drivers and extremely small greens, the wind can also play a major role here as several holes are located on the coast. As of now, the wind doesn’t look to be too bad but if things change, it could make for a very difficult Sunday.
Spyglass Hill is the longest course of the three and can pose quite a challenge depending on the weather conditions. The 4 Par 5’s on the course are long but it does feature some very short Par 4’s that players will need to take advantage of. The greens average around 5,000 sq. ft. which in comparison, is much larger than Pebble. However, just like Pebble, second shots will be placed at a premium.
Monterey Peninsula is a course that wasn’t featured in this event last year. It was removed due to the ongoing pandemic as the PGA tried to limit exposure at multiple venues. This is the shortest course of the three that players will face this weekend. It features 5 Par 3’s and 4 Par 5’s, only having 9 Par 4’s which is an unusual set up. Given the yardage and set up, it should be the easiest course which will place an emphasis on going low here. All of the Par 5’s are reachable given a good shot off the tee and will provide plenty of scoring opportunities. The 5 Par 3’s are not particularly long either, so Par 3 Scoring will be another stat to check out this week.
With all of the amateurs in the field, the course will be slightly less difficult than it’s potential the first three days. Meaning, the rough won’t be grown out to it’s limits and the pin placements won’t be as hidden. However, on the final day where it’s just the pro’s, the pins will be in their most difficult positions creating an exciting finish. Even if the grounds crew and tournament limit some of the difficulty, they can’t control the wind, which will be the main line of defense for these three courses.
The the three possible course rotations will be as follows:
The Field/ Odds:
By no means is this a star studded field, in fact, it’s actually one of the worst besides maybe the John Deere Classic. There is only 10 of the Top 50 Players in the World competing in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. You may be wondering, where is everyone this week? It has long been said that everyone has a price, and well, this week is the perfect example of that. Most of the top golfers are competing in the Saudi International this week where they all have reportedly received hefty appearance fees.
Now returning to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the field is headlined by Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger (2021 Champion), and Jordan Spieth (2017 Champion). Cantlay is the current favorite to win the event at around +750. He’s followed up by Daniel Berger, who is the defending champion at around +1200. Berger seemed to be in pain last week on Sunday in the American Express, so I’m not really sure what to make of him this week. Since he’s entered he obviously feels like he can compete, but a little something to be wary of if that back pain returns. Next is Jason Day at +2200, and the reason he’s one of the favorites is because of his course history. Dating back to 2017 these are his finishing positions in this event; 5-2-4-4-7. While he has never won at Pebble, he’s been a Top 10 machine here. Jordan Spieth is next on the list who’s currently around +2200 as well. Spieth has had success here as well, winning in 2017, and then finishing 9th in 2020 and 3rd in 2021. While the new father may not be in great form or his old self, he should fair well here given the strength of the field.
The top 10 is rounded out with Maverick McNealy (+2500), Cameron Tringale (+2800), Justin Rose (+2800), Seamus Powers (+3000), and Matt Fitzpatrick (+3500).
Notable Withdraws Include: Will Zalatoris (COVID-19), Hank Lebioda, Cameron Young, John Huh, David Lingmerth
Click the link, to see the most up to date odds.
Click the link, to find out how everyone in the field has qualified.
TV Information:
Key Statistics:
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
Picks (Outright):
Total Risk on Outrights: 0.99 Units
Picks (Top 20):
Total Risk on Top 20: 2.00 Units
Picks (Top 40):
Total Risk on Top 40: 1.00 Units
Total Risk on the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am : 3.99 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We have a great slate of NHL games tonight. A new episode of Expected Bets For will be out later tonight breaking down Wednesday’s games.
The NHL will be on a brief pause starting Thursday to Monday as the All Star Game will take place this weekend. The Skills Competition will take place Friday and will feature two new events, the Fountain Face Off and Las Vegas NHL 21′ in 22. The All Star Game will be held Saturday with the same 3 on 3 format they’ve used since 2016. I should have have article out later this week breaking down the field and odds for each event.
Washington Capitals @ Pittsburgh Penguins
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Washington Capitals | +105 | +145 | +1.5 (-170) | o6.0 (-105) |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | -133 | -170 | -1.5 (+150) | u6.0 (-115) |
Trends:
Preview:
This will be the third meeting between these teams this season. They first met back on November 14th, where Washington defeated the Penguins 6-1. Pittsburgh evened up the series on December 10th, beating the Capitals 4-2. In both of those games, Washington was the favorite but roles have reversed tonight as the Penguins opened up at -133 and is now up to -170.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals enter this game off a 5-0 win over Dallas on Friday night. Prior to that game they had lost two straight to San Jose and Vegas. During the month of January, the Capitals have failed to win back to back games going 4-8.
Offensively, the Capitals average 3.18 Goals For but in their last 10 games only average 2.50. On the year, Washington has a +12.22 Goals For Above Expected which ranks 4th. While they generate an average amount of scoring chances, they have been great at capitalizing on the ones the do. Their Power Play has also struggled on the season only converting at 15.2 % which ranks 29th.
Defensively, they allow an average of 2.67 Goals Against per game. They do a great job of limiting shots, specifically High Danger Shots. While their offense has struggled as of late, their defense has been right around their season average. Their Penalty Kill ranks 14th and doesn’t see a lot of action as the Caps are one of the most disciplined teams in the NHL.
They’ll be without Nick Jensen tonight as he remain in COVID protocols.
It looks like Vitek Vanecek will get the start for them in net tonight. He as a +0.4 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year. In his last start he shut out the Dallas Stars and has been great recently. When he faced Pittsburgh back in November he only allowed one goal against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are in a bit of a skid having lost their last three games. All three of those games were at home which makes it a bit more concerning. They’ve all been close games with two of those losses coming in extra time.
Pittsburgh averages 3.31 Goals For per game ranking 8th but, during their three game losing streak have only averaged 2 Goals For per game. The Penguins do have one of the best XGoal % in the NHL with a 54.03%. However, they have a -0.17 Goals For Above Expected. With the amount of scoring chances Pittsburgh creates the number isn’t that worrisome. The more concerning statistic has been their lack of goals recently. Their Power Play ranks 14th converting on 20.6% of their man advantages.
On the year Pittsburgh averages 2.56 Goals Against per game. However, in their last 10 games, which include the current losing streak they’re on, are allowing an average of 2.90 Goals Against per game. Just like Washington, the Penguins do a great job of limiting shots against ranking 9th. Their Penalty Kill has also been great this year and ranks 2nd.
Tristan Jarry is expected to get the start for the Penguins tonight. He’s been great this year, rebounding from his horrific playoff performance last season. Jarry has a +14.3 GSAx in 36 games played. In his most recent starts he has allowed 4-2-3-2-0 goals against.
Pick:
Other Picks For Today:
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
