This line opened at Hawks -2 before it was announced that Trae Young is questionable tonight. To be honest, I think Atlanta wins this game with or without Young in there. With a completely healthy roster back intact, the Hawks have won 7 straight games. This will also be the fourth game of a five game home stand for Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Raptors are on the heels of a Triple Overtime win in Miami on Saturday that saw every starter play at least 50(!) minutes. With the Raptors heading back to Canada to rematch with the Heat tomorrow, this is simply not a good spot for Toronto. Atlanta is surging at the moment, and I think the take advantage of the Raptors tonight whether they have Young or not.
*2 Team ML Parlay(1u): Warriors 1H ML, Oklahoma ML(-114)–7:10 PM CT
The Warriors are playing the Rockets, so expecting them to take a lead into the Half is pretty self-explanatory. However, I do think the Rockets will look flat tonight after playing only twice over the past 7 days. Young teams don’t benefit from having large gaps in their schedule. With a game in San Antonio on deck tomorrow, I think the Warriors try to put this one away early.
Oklahoma will look to enact revenge on TCU after they lost in Overtime in Fort Worth a few weeks ago. OU is much better than their 13-8 record indicates, which is shown their #29 overall rating in KenPom. TCU is coming off a huge win against LSU, but this Horned Frogs team is a step below the Sooners in my opinion, particularly on the offensive end of the floor(#124 in offensive efficiency). I have a hard time seeing TCU sweep a superior Big12 team, especially with this game being in Norman.
Monday card has the 100% Ohio Valley Conference Game Of the Year backed with a 100% Power Indicator. In NBA late action we have a Triple Perfect Western Conf. Power Play. NBA Comp play below.
The NBA Comp play is on Memphis at 7:10 eastern. The Grizzlies fit a nice system here as non division road dogs that are off back to back home favored wins scoring 112 in each have covered 11 of 13 vs an opponent like the Sixers that are off a home win. Memphis has covered 6 straight vs .600 or better opponents and 9 of 10 on Mondays. On the road they are on a 14-3 spread run. Philly has failed to cover 4 of 5 off a win and 4 of 5 at home vs a winning road team. Look for Memphis to cover. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports
4-3 with a teaser loss and a GOD-AWFUL result in NBA betting, Sunday. Check the board yesterday and find me a result that didn’t surprise you. Other than the Hawks taking care of business, wow. There’s something zany that happens on Sundays in the NBA – especially when the NFL is on. Call me crazy but there’s plenty of evidence to support it.
Shake that shit off, onto a new week!
NBA Picks:
Grizzlies +4 *
I’m betting this on principle. I think Memphis is a better team than Philly and they’re being given 4 points. Weird line, but no chance I’ll not take the Grizzlies in these scenarios. They’ve proven it time and time again.
Heat/Celtics under 209.5 *
Strange things have been happening in NBA totals – maybe it’s the pre-all-star-break trends coming alive, with defenses subsiding, but these are two strong defensive units who play very slow. I expect a game around 200 here.
Cavs -7 **
Few teams are better ATS than the Cavs, still, and this is a great response spot for them against a very banged up Pelicans team.
Knicks -5 **
I think the Knicks are fake news, I really do, but you have to take advantage of spots like this. NYK needs a win, they’re at home, they have a rest advantage and they’re healthy. Get it done.
CBB Pick: West Virginia +14 * – too many points for a rivalry.
P.S. – I’ll be giving out a free correlated parlay today on Twitter – Hawks win + Raptors/Hawks over 219. This is not an official play for me, it’ll count towards my parlays, and I would only put 1 unit on it. Toronto has to be tired coming off that tough 3 OT game against Miami 2 days ago, and the Hawks could find plenty of success from the perimeter. Hawks are on a ROLL.
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Hi All! How about that day in CBB?! For someone who hasn’t bet it much, not bad. Our NBA picks took a tumble but yesterday was a shitty slate – probably should have just passed. Onward and upward.
Friendly reminder – look up the most famous, “best” handicappers in America and you probably won’t find any that come close to my record the past few years (58%, 57%, etc.). Trust the process and remember it’s a long term game. Don’t sweat the short-term, ever.
I love a lot of favorites today but Sundays in the NBA are always weird. Buckle up and HEY, the NFL Conference Title games are finally here! LFG!
NBA Picks:
Hornets -6 **
Charlotte is too fast and talented on offense for LAC to keep up, especially this banged up version of the Clippers. All Hornets for me.
Cavs -8 *
This is a big line but Detroit is depleted in the front court and there’s absolutely no reason why Cleveland shouldn’t dominate in the paint all game.
Bucks -6.5 **
Horrific spot for the Nuggets on a long road stretch and the Bucks are poised, healthy, and primed for another peak performance at home.
NFL Conference Picks:
Bengals +7 **
How many times does Burrow have to prove that he’s elite? In case you missed my Tweet, if there’s a rematch between two teams in the conference championship round, the team that won in the regular season has gone 9-2 since 2014. The Bengals beat KC in Week 17 – and I think they could do it again. I’ll be sprinkling on the ML, too – Burrow is special.
Burrow over 305 passing yards **
Mahomes over 305 passing yards **
Bengals over 23.5 points **
Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 **
Do I really need an explanation here?
49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 **
49ers +3.5 *
Cautious because the Rams NEED TO beat SF one of these days, and I think they do, but how can this not be a FG game between two divisional rivals?
Teaser: Chiefs win, Game over 48, Rams +3.5, Game over 38.5 **
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
This total really says it all to me. Lower scoring game with two coaches that know each other well. I have to give credit to Matt Stafford on that last drive to beat Tampa Bay. The momentum was really going the other way and Cam Akers and his fumbles really made it easier on the Buccaneers. In saying that, the 49ers have been the Rams crutch over the last 6 games by winning all of them. These two coaches know each other well and there shouldn’t be too many surprises. Being that the Rams had a mid-year slump, and San Francisco was quite injured the first half of the year, I think we have to look at some of the advanced stats the last 1/3rd of the year. Since week 12, the Niners rank 8th in offensive EPA per play to the Rams 12th. On defensive EPA per play, the 9ers rank 10th to the Rams 7th. The quarterbacks have both been good the whole year and actually quite equal with Jimmy G ranking 4th in EPA + CPOE and Matt Stafford ranking 6th in EPA + CPOE. On the defense, San Francisco has the slight edge ranking 2nd in adjusted line yards to the Rams 6th. The trenches is where the 49ers have excelled, and they know how to avoid the pass rush through schemes. Kyle Shanahan knows how to frustrate the Rams defense quite well with mixed looks on offense and using more pre-snap motion to remove defenders from their zones to clear out passing lanes. Let’s also not forget Deebo Samuel and how much he has meant to this offense. On defense, the 49ers play zone 72% of the time, and Matt Stafford doesn’t seem to do as well vs zone compared to man coverage. Looking at home field advantage for the Rams, there really isn’t none being that LA is littered with 49er fans as they will definitely be showing up at this game. The Rams have a larger collection of talent, but their second leading tackler in Safety Taylor Rapp is still very questionable to play this game. I like Sean McVeigh and his offense a lot, but he is going against someone that might even be better than him in his mentor Kyle Shanahan. There is no way that the 49ers should be a 3.5 dog in a venue where they might have more fans. Take the Points and I think this will be a 3 point game.
San Francisco +3.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle
Bonus Prop Play in Bengals vs Chiefs game – Joe Mixon under 57.5 rushing yards – 1.5 stars. If this game pans out like everyone is saying it will, then the Bengals will have to pass the ball most of this game. I think that neither team will be trying to establish any sort of run here, and they will be only be doing it just to keep the other team honest.
Sunday card has the 7* NFL Playoff Game of the Year and a rare 6* Perfect System total as well as NCAAB. NBA Comp play below.
The NBA Comp play for Sunday is on Chicago at 3:40 eastern. The Bulls fit a nice power system pertaining to their road loss last out and prior home win vs an opponent like Portland off a road win. The Bulls have covered 5 of 6 at home vs a losing road team, 16 of 21 on Sundays and 4 of 5 off a spread loss. The Blazers have failed to cover 5 of 6 off a 10+ point win and are 2-13 to the spread in their road dog losses. Look for The Bulls to bounce back here in Afternoon action. On Sunday the 7* NFL Playoff Game Of The Year headlines along with a perfect system 6* Total, NCAAB and NBA. Conference Championships 8-2 last 5 years. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big. For the NBA Comp play. Go with Chicago. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
The divisional round certainly did not disappoint. Now the NFC stage is set with these two division rivals. Is the 7th time a charm for McVay and the Rams facing Shanahan’s Niners? Or does the domination continue…..
Current NFL Record: 152-109 +41.54 Units
Rams -3.5 (-105)
We know both of these defenses are very good and capable of making game changing plays. This game will be a chess match and a battle defensively, however there is always a liability that offsets these close match ups. For me Jimmy G is the liability. This is the NFL Playoffs and some how the Niners have gotten through the first 2 rounds with their QB not throwing a single TD. In fact the last 2 games Jimmy G has gone 27/44 303 yards 0 Tds 2 ints……woof. Clearly this is a team relying heavily on their defense. Usually that isn’t necessarily a bad thing at this stage of the season. However, Matt Stafford and the Rams have certainly found an offensive groove and are not shy about putting numbers on the board.
The most recent match up we saw the Rams took it to the Niners early going up 17-0. Rams got comfortable, let off the gas and ended up paying for it in the end. Kudos to the Niners for showing a lot of heart and battling back to edge that game out in OT to go on this unprecedented playoff run. That playoff run ends on Sunday. We know the story line here…. McVay just can not seem to figure out Shanahan with an 0-6 record all time against him with the Niners. Time to “right the ship” and win the most important game of all the match ups. This is the game where McVay puts it all on the line and opens up the playbook. I wouldn’t be surprised if we even saw some trick plays with Odell throwing passes like we would see with the Giants and Browns. He is all in here.
The Rams are a more complete team. Let’s just say for argument sake the defenses cancel each other out. It’s an offensive league and the Rams have the better offense by a mile. This post season their offensive production has almost doubled up on the Niners in every major category. Now yes the Niners had to play in the cold in a snow storm ….. but that snow wasn’t stopping Jimmy G from throwing it to the other team in the redzone. Niners got bailed out by a blocked punt plain and simple. They are lucky to be here. Rams sort out Akers fumbling issues from last week and this game isn’t even a contest. I know a lot of people think this will be close and love getting the Niners +3.5 with the hook in a FG type game. I think we are going to see what the Rams did in the first week 18 in that first half and keep the pedal to the floor the whole way through. For the second year in a row the home team hosts the Super Bowl. Rams -3.5.
Hell of a way to head into the weekend, going 4-0 (and avoiding some stinkers like the Pelicans) for a +8 unit night. I hope you took full advantage! Check out some of the new NFL picks below as I continue to stack my plays for Sunday. Since it’s just a huge slate of CBB today, I threw in some plays there, too. Remember, I’m no expert in CBB – follow and enlist in Kyle Hunter’s or Kiev O’Neill’s premium picks for a real savant there.
NBA Picks:
Pacers/Mavs under 216.5 *
Just a one unit play here, Indiana is still banged up a little (and Brogdon is out) and Dallas plays at a stifling, slow pace as it is. These two teams routinely get unders in their contests (Dallas: 68% ATS under)- I have this game at 209.
Raptors/Heat 1H under 106.5 **
This game should be a war. Two teams with long, blue-collar talent in the paint. Both good on defense, both disciplined. I expect a battle and I like the 1H under more than the full game (it’s just too high), BUT – if this game goes over in the 1H, look for a live bet on the total under overall at that point. Both of these defenses are exceptional in the 3rd quarter especially.
CBB Picks:
Michigan State -4 *
Baylor/Bama over 150.5 *
DePaul +8.5 *
Tenn/Texas under 126.5 *
NFL Conference Picks (new picks in blue):
Bengals +7 **
How many times does Burrow have to prove that he’s elite? In case you missed my Tweet, if there’s a rematch between two teams in the conference championship round, the team that won in the regular season has gone 9-2 since 2014. The Bengals beat KC in Week 17 – and I think they could do it again. I’ll be sprinkling on the ML, too – Burrow is special.
Burrow over 305 passing yards **
Mahomes over 305 passing yards **
Bengals over 23.5 points **
Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 **
Do I really need an explanation here?
49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 **
49ers +3.5 *
Cautious because the Rams NEED TO beat SF one of these days, and I think they do, but how can this not be a FG game between two divisional rivals?
Teaser: Chiefs win, Game over 48, Rams +3.5, Game over 38.5 **
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
Currently on a 7-0 run and +10.75u in January, I’m back at it today with 9 CBB plays! 7 of those are reserved for premium members, while 2 can be seen for free. Premium plays are hitting at a 59% clip and have netted my members +47.45u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Maryland +1.5(-110) vs Indiana–1:30 PM CT
Indiana is just 1-4 straight-up on the road this season, with their only win coming against 6-14 Nebraska. While the Hoosiers play solid defense, their offense has a tendency to go into major lulls(#73 in offensive efficiency). This has been a turbulent season for Maryland due to some coaching shake ups, but this team is clearly better than their 11-9 record would indicate. The Terps come into this game off of 2 convincing wins, including a 16 point blowout against Illinois last Friday. Indiana has given me no reason to trust them on the road, while Maryland seems to be playing their best basketball at the moment.
*CBB(1u): Notre Dame -3(-110) vs Virginia–5 PM CT
While Virginia can take advantage of poor offensive play from their opponents, the Cavs(12-8) really struggle to keep up with even decent offenses. Notre Dame enters this matchup ranked 36th in offensive efficiency, while Virginia surprisingly ranks outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency. However, a bigger reason Virginia struggles in higher-scoring games is because they run at the slowest pace in College Basketball and pair that with just the 86th most efficient offense. Tony Bennett seems to have little urgency to change his style, but I think it will bite him in this type of matchup once again. I like the Irish at home tonight.
