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January 29th CBB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1.5u): Georgia Tech +3(-110) vs Miami–11 AM CT

Miami just picked up a thrilling road victory on a buzzer-beater at Virginia Tech, but having to turn right back around and play another road conference game in the same week. Georgia Tech is just 9-10 and doesn’t have great overall numbers this season, but this team is starting to play its best basketball. They just knocked off Florida State at home with a rather convincing 75-61 win and will face a Miami defense that ranks just 169th in efficiency on that end of the floor. I know Miami has picked up some big wins in conference play, but that defense is going to plague them down the stretch of this season. I like Josh Pastner and the Yellow Jackets to pull off the home upset against a vulnerable team in a bad spot. P.S: I love that 93% of the tickets are on Miami and the line hasn’t seemed to budge. 

*CBB(1u): La Salle +15(-110) @ Davidson–11 AM CT

Davidson has had a very good season up to this point, but they haven’t exactly blown some of the lower-level A10 teams out up to this point. They beat UMASS by 10 at home and squeaked by lowly Fordham with just a 3-point win. This is also somewhat of a sandwich spot for the Wildcats having just played VCU and with a road game at St. Bonaventure on tap this coming Tuesday. La Salle is not a great team, but aside from the VCU game 3 weeks ago, they’ve been competitive in every other A10 game. Davidson ranks just 180th in defensive efficiency which leaves them vulnerable to teams like La Salle keeping games closer than they should be. With the situation and matchup considered, this is too many points.  

*CBB(1u): West Virginia +8.5(-110) @ Arkansas–1 PM CT

I think the public sentiment on Arkansas has gotten far too high. While they are off of 5 straight wins, their only marquee win in that stretch was @ LSU. While that’s impressive, this is still a team that’s not too far removed from losing to Hofstra and Vanderbilt. This is not one of Bob Huggins’ better West Virginia teams, but they are certainly better than this spread would indicate. They’ve run into a buzz saw stretch in their Big 12 schedule, but Arkansas is a little more sloppy and vulnerable than most of the teams they’ve played in conference play. This is a good “buy low” spot for West Virginia as well as a “sell high” on Arkansas. I sprinkled just a little bit on the ML as well. 

*CBB(1u): Maryland +1.5(-110) vs Indiana–1:30 PM CT

Indiana is just 1-4 straight-up this season, with their only win coming against 6-14 Nebraska. While the Hoosiers play solid defense, their offense has a tendency to go into lulls(#73 in offensive efficiency). This has been a turbulent season for Maryland due to some coaching shake ups, but this team is clearly better than their 11-9 record would indicate. The Terps come into this game off of 2 convincing wins, including a 16 point blowout against Illinois last Friday. Indiana has given me no reason to trust them on the road, while Maryland seems to be playing their best basketball at the moment. 

*CBB(1u): Kansas State ML(-117) @ Ole Miss–3 PM CT

This line is just incorrect, plain and simple. Kansas State has beaten the likes of Texas Tech and Texas in conference play this season, while Ole Miss has been mostly inconsistent. The Big 12 is obviously a juggernaut this season that is lauded with teams who play great defense, so this K-State team should have an easier time facing just the 122nd ranked team according to KenPom. The Rebels’ defense isn’t horrible, but their offense ranks just 194th in efficiency and shows no urgency to push the pace. I made this line 3 even with the home-court advantage tied in, so I think we’re getting quite a bit of value on Kansas State here. 

*CBB(1u): Baylor -3(-110) @ Alabama–3 PM CT

There is no reason this line should be this short. While something does smell fishy, I’m willing to walk into this trap with my 2nd ranked team in the country. A few weeks ago, Baylor hit a wall; however, over their last 3 games, they’ve won by an average of 16 PPG. The time to fade Baylor has passed for now. While Alabama plays an exciting brand of offense, the Crimson Tide are very vulnerable on the defensive end of the floor in comparison to Baylor, ranking just 64th in defensive efficiency. Also, their desire to push the pace leaves the door open for more sloppy play, something they just can’t have in this type of game. I would understand the case for Alabama if these teams had played a few weeks ago, but this line is too short. I like Baylor to get the job done today. 

*CBB(1u): Baylor/Alabama OVER 150.5(-110)–3 PM CT

Building off the analysis above, Baylor should be able to score at will against a vulnerable defense, especially considering the Bears see stout defenses virtually every night in the Big 12. I think Nate Oates understands that the only path for Alabama to win is to turn this thing into a track meet; Oates seems to approach all “big” games with this attitude. I think this total is substantially short. 

*CBB(1u): Notre Dame -3(-110) vs Virginia–5 PM CT

While Virginia can take advantage of poor offensive play from their opponents, the Cavs(12-8) really struggle to keep up with even decent offenses. Notre Dame enters this matchup ranked 36th in offensive efficiency, while Virginia surprisingly ranks outside of the Top 100 in defensive efficiency. However, a bigger reason Virginia struggles in higher-scoring games is because they run at the slowest pace in College Basketball and pairs that with just the 86th most efficient offense. Tony Bennett seems to have little urgency to change his style, but I think it will bite him in this type of matchup once again. I like the Irish at home tonight. 

*CBB ML Parlay(0.8u): Auburn, Saint Louis, Texas Tech(+120)–1 PM CT

College Basketball 1/29/22 Free Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Michigan vs Michigan State -3 O/U 139

I played Michigan State a few weeks back before the game was cancelled.  Now Michigan has gotten better but so did this spread.  State has been a much better shooting team than they have in the past ranking 13th from three point land at 38.5% collectively.   Their biggest weakness is turnovers ranking 280th in the nation turning the ball over at a 20.6% clip of possessions.  The good thing for them this game is that Michigan only ranks 339th in steals this year.  Michigan certainly isn’t as good as they have been, but they still have one of the best three players in basketball in Hunter Dickenson and they caught a sense of urgency winning three big 10 games in a row.   The problem with Michigan is their guard play hasn’t been up to par this year, and when Dickenson is gassed or in foul trouble, this team seems to falter.  Michigan State has some very tall guys down low and should be able to give Michigan some issues.  Sparty won this matchup last year at home when they were the worse team.   I think the spread is too light at three.

Michigan State -3 – 2 stars

Oklahoma vs Auburn -9.5 O/U 139

Let’s get right into the Big 12/SEC Challenge with one of the bigger games that I think might have some value.   Auburn is coming into the strange timing of this challenge hot with no SEC losses this far.  This means that this game really has distraction all over it for Auburn.  The Tigers are a 1 seed right now and trying to have a perfect record in the SEC and now the Big 12 challenge jumped right in the way of that which means a shift in their mindset.  To make Matters worse, Bruce Pearl’s name is now popping up in the media as a possible Louisville replacement coach which makes things unsettling.   I even think that Bruce Pearl mentioned in the past how attractive that job is to him.  The other issue with the Tigers is that consider is that Auburn has Alabama on deck after this game as well.  Alabama is this school’s rival and they want to beat them bad.  I have to play Oklahoma here due to the situation.   Porter Moser’s new team is a very good shooting team ranking 10th in effective FG%.  They have also already faced some very good defenses so far ranking 26th in defensive opponent strength.    The Sooners will look at this game as a quality win opportunity, and this would certainly help them to get into the tournament after a bad Big 12 start to the year.   Oklahoma is also 2-0 vs the SEC this year and this spread is large.

Oklahoma +9.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday ACC Power Play Virginia At Notre Dame

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Saturday Headliners include the Missouri Valley Play of the Year, an Afternoon Big 10 Play of the Month and our Exclusive Executive Level TIER Total. We also have an NHL Platinum Supreme Total and NBA. ACC Comp Play below.

The NCAAB Comp play is on Notre Dame at 6:00 eastern. The Irish have a better RPI Rank and have played a tougher schedule. They have won 3 straight and have covered the last 6 off a win, 4 of 5 at home and 4 of 5 on Saturdays. Virginia has failed to cover 7 of 8 off a win and 5 of 6 vs .600 or better opponents. Notre Dame has lost 11 of 12 in the series and will look to break a losing streak against a Cavaliers team that is not close to what it was in recent years. Play on the Irish. A massive big play card is up with an Executive Level TIER 1 signature Totals play, the Missouri Valley Conf. Play of the Year, the Big 10 Game Of The Month, an NHL Platinum Supreme Total and NBA. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook to Jump on and Cash out all day and night. For the NCAAB Comp play. Go with Notre Dame. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Gulfstream Preview & Picks – G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – January 29, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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We have an awesome day of racing today, headlined by the G1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. It features two of the best horses in North America in Knicks Go and Life is Good. As of now, Knicks Go is the slight favorite at 6-5 with Life is Good right behind him at 7-5.

Check out my breakdown and picks below!

Race Information:

  • Track: Gulfstream Park (Hallandale Beach, FL, USA)
  • Event Grade: Grade I
  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: 5:34 PM ET
  • Length: 1 1/8 Mile
  • Purse: $3,000,000
  • Division: Open | Four Years Old & Upwards
  • Surface: Dirt
  • Wagers: $1 Exacta | $2 Quinella | $.50 Trifecta | $.10 Superfecta | $1 Super Hi 5

 

TV Schedule:

  • FS2 – 12:30 PM – 6:30 PM
  • NBC – 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM

 

Field:

PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER A/S WGT ML
1 Knicks Go J. Rosario B. Cox 6/H 123 6-5
2 Chess Chief R. Gutierrez D. Stewart 6/H 123 10-1
3 Stilleto Boy K. Desormeaux E. Moger Jr. 4/G 123 20-1
4 Life is Good I. Ortiz Jr. T. Pletcher 4/C 123 7-5
5 Empty Tomb P. Lopez R. Falcone Jr. 6/H 123 20-1
6 Sir Winston E. Gonzalez M. Case 6/H 123 12-1
7 Title Ready T. Gaffalione D. Stewart 7/H 123 20-1
8 Endorsed U. Rispoli M. Maker 6/H 123 20-1
9 Commandeer J.Laparoux J. Toner 4/G 123 30-1

 

Horse Preview:

(1) Knicks Go, is the morning line favorite opening at 6-5. He’s coming off a two month layoff last running in the G1 Breeders Cup Classic. In that race he lead the entire way with really no competition coming down the stretch winning by more than two lengths. He’s undefeated in his last four starts capturing the G3 Lukas Classic Stakes, the G1 Whitney Stakes, and the G3 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap. Knicks Go won this event last year as well. He looks to be in great form given his recent workouts so it’s really hard to see anyone beating him in this race. The only concern would be his post position on the inside but given his early speed he should be able to avoid getting trapped early. Joel Rosario has been his main jockey and will again remain in the saddle.

(2) Chess Chief, is coming off a win in the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds back in December. That was his only win of the 2021 season besides the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes which was at a mile and an eighth. Even in those two races he won, his speed figures do not even come close to what Knicks Go has produced. He faced the morning line favorite once before in the G3 Lukas Classic Stakes where he ran 5th. Chess Chief is by definition a closer but I’m just not sure he’ll have what it takes to catch Knicks Go if he gets out to an early lead. If he doesn’t and some how stumbles at the start, it might give him a glimpse of hope as they enter the back stretch. Gutierrez remains on the mount as they had success in his last race.

(3) Stilleto Boy, tried his luck in the G1 Malibu Stakes his last out only to end up finishing 3rd. He’s run at a mile + in most of his previous races but I guess they wanted to switch things up and run him in a 7F sprint. In that race he was beat my emerging superstar Flightline, who’s undefeated. Prior to that race, he competed against Knicks Go in the G1 Breeders Cup Classic where he ran 5th. This four year old gelding won two races in 2021 coming in the Iowa Derby and a Maiden Special Weight. His best finish in a G1 race was in the Awesome Again Stakes in October where he ran 2nd to Medina Spirit. I’m just not sure this horse has the class to compete in this race given the two morning line favorites.

(4) Life is Good, is the other morning line favorite opening at 7-5. He’s last ran in the G1 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile where he won by more than 5 lengths. In his six career starts he has 5 wins and 1 second place finish. His lone second place finish was in the G1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes where he lost to Jackie’s Warrior by a nose. Something to note is that this will be the longest race he has run in his career. He ran a mile and a sixteenth back in March of 2021 where he won the G2 San Felipe Stakes. Life is Good is another early speed horse and we could very well see him and Knicks Go battle it out wire to wire. The question is, will he have enough in the tank?

(5) Empty Tomb, has his best two speed figures in his past two races. He was the runner up the Queens County Stakes his last out losing to Forewarned by a little over a length. That race was run at the same distance as the Pegasus, but the field will be much more loaded for this race. If you’re looking at finishing times, Knicks Go ran a mile and an eighth almost four seconds quicker. While Empty Tomb may be finding his stride late into his career, I just don’t see him competing in this race. This will also be the first G1 Stakes that he has entered in his career. In his only other graded stakes race, he ran 6th in the G2 Stephen Foster Stakes back in June of 2021.

(6) Sir Winston, is another horse that has had success late in his career. His most recent race was in December where he won the G3 Valedictory Stakes at Woodbine. Prior to that race he was the runner up in the G2 Autumn Stakes and G3 Durham Cup Stakes. Sir Winston actually won the G1 Belmont in 2019 upsetting favorite Tacitus. After that race he only captured one win in his next five starts winning an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Aqueduct. This is an interesting horse for sure, I just don’t know if he has what it takes to pull of an upset again.

(7) Title Ready, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione hasn’t shown much in his last three races. His last win comes four starts ago in the G3 Louisiana Stakes which was run at a mile and a sixteenth. He’s run in three G1 Stakes before finishing 11th in the Dubai World Cup, 10th in the Clark Stakes, and 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Looking at his recent speed figures he appears to be a non factor.

(8) Endorsed, will look for his first win since May of 2020 where he won an Allowance Optional Claimer at Oaklawn Park. In his most recent race he took 2nd in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes. He’s traditionally a sprinter and will lengthen out quite a bit in this race. I’m not really sure what the thought process is here from his trainer but I guess we’ll see.

(9) Commandeer, enters this race winning his last two capturing back to back wins at a mile and a sixteenth in allowance races. This will be his first graded stakes race that he’s run in. I’m not sure exactly why he’s entered this race and if his trainer’s are maybe using this more as a measuring stick race. Personally I just don’t see how he makes an impact in this race especially given his running style.

 

Race Preview:

Front Runner(s): Knicks Go, Life is Good, Empty Tomb

Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Stilleto Boy, Sir Winston, Title Ready

Closer(s): Chess Chief, Endorsed, Commandeer

 

Picks:

  • BEST BET TO WIN: (1) KNICKS GO
  • LONGSHOT TO WIN: (6) SIR WINSTON

 

  • EXACTA: 1 / 4, 6
  • TRIFECTA: 1/ 4, 6/ 2, 4, 5, 6

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

Pegasus World Cup 2022 – Free Picks!

By
Shawn Knoche
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Most casual racing fans know about the Triple Crown and the pageantry and prestige that surrounds three Saturdays in late spring. Full time fans and bettors know there’s great action and big cards to be had year round. This weekend is one of the biggest, The 2022 Pegasus World Cup and its under card. The event is hosted at Gulfstream Park. It features turf races, dirt races and synthetic races on the Tapeta. If you plan on watching tomorrow I suggest trying to get the racetrack feed as Peter Aiello, the track announcer, is the best voice in the business.

I’ve got analysis and picks for races 5-12 below which are all stakes races. Lots of big fields with chances for some big payouts. I will list my picks to win for each race and then also what my top 4 or 5 are for exotics if you plan on getting involved in those.

Here we go…

Race 5 – La Prevoyante Stakes -Grade III –  1 1/2 Miles  (TURF). Purse: $150,000. Post Time – 12:27 PM CST

The first race is a long 1.5 miles on the turf and doesn’t have any really big sprinters to lead them out here so this should be a pretty tight bunch heading towards home. I expect the two favorites to be heavily in play here as both should be in good stalking position. Todd Pletcher who is winning at a ridiculous 42% clip during this meet will run out the 4 horse Always Shopping and Christopher Clemente will have the 6 horse Beautiful Lover. This pair has two head to head races in last 3 months with each finishing ahead of the other once. If the pace does get pushed extra early I could see the 8 Horse Hungry Kitten also sneaking into this one, but I think this is between the two favorites. Likely will see an Exacta here of 4,6/1,4,6,8 on this one.

To Win: 6 Beautiful Lover, 4 Always Shopping

Exotics: 6-4-8-1

Race 6 – Handicap – 1m 70  Yards – (TABETA SYNTHETIC) Purse: $70,000. Post Time 12:57 PM CST

4 Horse Frosted Over is the favorite here having run successfully on this turf and stepping down in distance. He will have some speed out ahead of him in this one as I expect the 2 Horse Wolfie’s Dynaghost to get to the front and try and stay there. Ultimately I think he will fade. The 7 Horse Telephone Talker should also move to the front and he has the stamina to stay to the end. This could open the door for a horse who hasn’t run as well yet on the synthetic the 11 Horse Tiesto. He is reunited with Junior Alvarado who took him on his best trip this year and could be able to stalk, stay within 3-4 lengths and come ahead at the end here. I will try the 11 and likely some trifectas with the exotic line below.

To Win: I like the 11 Tiesto

Exotics: 11-4-7-5

Race 7 – W.L. McKnight Stakes – Grade III – 1 1/2 Miles (TURF). Purse $200,000. Post Time 1:31 PM CST

A mile and a half again on turf here. Unlike the 5th race this one looks to have some early speed for such a long race. The 2 Horse Abaan the favorite on the morning line will certainly try and take the lead and go coast to coast. He did so in his last race at 2 miles so the distance wont be a problem. He should be pushed early by the 1 Horse Temple who will be looking to avoid getting pinched inside. This early pace could open the door for some closers like the 6 Horse Bama Breeze, 8 Horse Baker’s Bay and 9 Horse Gylnn County. Glynn County has stuggled last few times out and is coming off a short layoff after a bad last run in October so I will be fading him. I like Bama Breeze to get it done. I like the exacta here, but will sprinkle a win/place on the 6.

To Win: 6 Bama Breeze

Exotics 6-10-1-8

Race 8 – Inside Information Stakes – Grade II – 7 Furlongs (Dirt). Purse $200,000. Post Time 2:03 PM CST

This race is wide open as 6 horses have a morning line of 8-1 or better. This race should see the 2 Horse AG Indy who has been dominating at 5 and 6 furlongs on the west coast lead out in a big way. He is going to try and get the lead and hold on. He should be pressured by the 8 Horse Just One Time who is the favorite and the 7 Horse Jakarta. The 3 Horse Dance d’oro and 5 Horse Four Graces should be waiting just behind when they early leaders get to the stretch. I also am going to keep my eye on the 1 Horse Family Time who took a liking to Gulfstream a few weeks ago and ran his best race ever at a mile.

To Win: 2 AG Indy

Exotics 2-3-5-1-8

Race 9 – TAA Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Pepsi- Grade III – 1 1/16 Miles (Turf). Purse $500,000. 2:26 PM CST

The ladies take to the turf and I expect speed here from the 9 Horse Shifty She and the 1 Horse Sweet Melania. Favorite is the Chad Brown trained 4 Horse Regal Glory who should get a great view of the action in front of her and be ready to close this one out. 8 Horse Summer in Saratoga is a winner in her last three races at this distance or greater and should close well in this race. The 3 Horse Lady Speightspeare won 4 straight before getting upset in her last trip and has times just as fast as the favorites. She could sneak into this one as well. Good race for exotics.

To Win: 3 Lady Speightspeare

Exotics: 3-4-8-9

Race 10 – Fred W. Hooper Stakes Presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa – Grade III – 1 Mile (Dirt). Purse $150,000. Post Time: 3:12 PM CST

Trainer Bill Mott saddles the favorite 8 Horse Speaker’s Corner here who has been impressive outside of a Grade I trip in September where he was overwhelmed. I expect him to be near the front and has the strength to take the full mile here wire to wire. Challenging him should be the 9 Horse Girolamo’s Attack, 7 Horse Dennis’ Moment, and 6 Horse Liam. I don’t fancy the 1 Horse Fearless here who opens at 5-2 and will likely struggle out of the inside draw.

To Win: 8 Speaker’s Corner

Exotics: 8-7-6-9

Race 11 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles (Turf). Purse $1,000,000. Post Time 3:49 CST

Todd Pletcher has rider Irad Ortiz Jr. back on last years champion of this race and early favorite 6 Horse Colonel Liam. This horse and jockey combo are a perfect 4 for 4 in wins since December 2020. However Colonel Liam has not run since Belmont in June. The big question here is how will he respond after the layoff. Pletcher also has the second favorite in 12 Horse Never Surprised who is taking a step up in class here. I don’t see a lot of value in the inside 4 horses and continue to find myself looking at the 5 Horse Hit The Road who while not winning has been impressive last two times out finishing third behind Mo Forza and Smooth Like Strait in Grade 2 affairs. My only concern on him is the distance as he will be going the extra 1/8 mile for the first time. 7 Horse Doswell ran a great race at this distance last time out and if he repeats it will be in the mix. 8 Horse Sacred Life trained by Chad Brown should also be in great position right by Colonel Liam as long as he doesn’t get burned out chasing the pace setters too quick. This one is fairly wide open so I’ll be rolling with some exactas and trifectas on this one for certain.

To Win: 5 Hit the Road, 8 Sacred Life

Exotics: 5-8-6-7-12

Race 12 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by 1/ST BET – Grade I – 1 1/8 Miles – (Dirt). Purse $3,000,000. Post Time 4:34 PM CST

This is it. The Big one. It features the two best horses from The Breeder’s Cup in November going head to head for all the carrots. Breeder’s Cup Classic Champion 1 Horse Knicks Go waited until turning 4 years old before shocking the world and becoming the most dominant racing horse of the last two years. He has won 8 of 10 races since the start of 2020 most of them wire to wire. The only losses occurred where he got shuffled back in the first turn after not breaking clean. I could potentially see that happening here without a clean break from the 1 post. 4 Horse Life is Good is The Breeder’s Cup Mile Champion has won 5 of 6 career starts with the only loss by a neck in a Grade I 7 Furlong race at Santa Anita in August. This will be his first trip up to the 1 1/8 Mile distance. Outside of those two who could make some noise? I am struggling to make a case for any of these other horses. The ones that have raced them have all finished at least 10 lengths back and the newcomers are for the most part coming up in class or distance to make a challenge. Forced to pick some I will look at the 8 Horse Endorsed and the 7 Horse Title Ready. My advice here is the 1 or 4 is going to win. Use them as the end of Pick 3s and Pick 4s. There’s not much value outside of that.

To Win: 1 Knicks Go, 4 Life is Good

Exotics 1-4-8-7

 

 

 

 

Executing The Edge Podcast 10 with Special Guest Ron @Ronacesports! – MLB Lockout, NFL Conference Championships, College Basketball

By
Nick Hub
-

In this week’s Executing the Edge podcast, Nick:

  • gives an update on the MLB lockout
  • Discusses the NFL Conference Championship games with Special Guest, Ron @Ronacesports
  • Breaks down some of the bigger CBB games for the weekend

Get all of my plays through the Odds Breakers with my Exclusive CBB Sides Subscription HERE

#Sportsbetting #sportsinvesting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAAF #CBB #CFB #MLB #NCAAB #ExecutingTheEdge

NCAAM Friday Play

By
Kristobal Lundborg
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306217 Lehigh -4.5 (-115)** at 306218 Holy Cross

Line on this game hasn’t budged in most but seeing some books moving starting to move toward Holy Cross. This is another head scratcher in a week that has been puzzling as far as line moves go. Lehigh’s record at 8-13 is unimpressive but misleading as they are second in the Patriot League at 6-3 while Holy Cross is 3-15, 1-5 in conference games.

Lehigh has been inconsistent as far as wins go and have shown a zig-zag pattern of late, winning one or two, then a bad loss. Perhaps that is what has the market heading the Crusaders way. Or perhaps there is some COVID/ injury information I’m not seeing. The line move has me weary of going as hard as I’d like, but what Lehigh has been consistent in, is covering the spread. The Mountain Hawks coming into this one covering 8 of their L10 and are 7-2 ATS in conference.

Holy Cross has struggled to meet expectations in the market at 4-12 ATS. The Crusaders are only 2-4 ATS in conference and coming off an 18-point loss to fellow bottom feeder American U, who is 8th in Patriot play. I’m willing to trust the more proven team on the road here. While there are some books with the -4.5, I also like Lehigh at the -5. Earlier tip off starting at 5 pm EST.

 

Check out more of my plays at my Patreon as I am having a good basketball season, up +24 units in January!

NFL Conference Championship Best Bets – Jan 30, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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Joey Burrow

 

What’s up everyone?! The final four teams clash in the final week of pro football before the big dance – who comes out on top? What’s the best way to approach betting these games? Check out my thoughts, below!

Currently on a 49-28 (63%) NBA run the last month, and we’re up to +60 units this season. Hit this link to get my premium plays every day in your inbox!

Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 (-110), 2.2 units: Here we go with another over but it just seems too obvious (which actually makes it a little scary but, I digress). The Kansas City defense has improved in the second half of the season; there’s no doubt about it. We have them as a top 10 unit in the final 9 weeks. They’ve found ways to limit run games, they can be sneaky good against the pass, and they have dynamic athletes like Chris Jones who can get to the quarterback. The defense for KC hasn’t been “a problem” like it was in years past and I don’t think it’ll be the problem heading into Sunday. The real issue for KC’s defense has nothing to do with them– it’s the talent and disposition of a young Bengals’ offense. The tenacity of Joe Burrow is unquestionable at this point. In week 17, he threw for 446 yards and 4 TDs against the Chiefs, overcoming an 11 point deficit at home, without a run game, and while facing a tremendous amount of pressure for most of the contest. On Sunday, the Chiefs may be without arguably their most important defensive player, the “Honey Badger,” Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu suffered a concussion in the first quarter against the Bills and it’s still unclear if he’ll play. Watch for his status– Mathieu is not only a skilled defender, he’s the leader of that defense. The Chiefs could lose considerable poise when they need it most if he can’t gear up. It also probably doesn’t help that KC face a quarterback who leads the NFL in completion percentage… buckle up!

Both of these squads are better on run defense than they are against the pass, ranked in the bottom third of the league in most of the latter categories. And even if Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes face a ton of pressure in this game, it’s unlikely they can be contained for all 60 minutes. The best talent on the field is on offense: Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Burrow, Mixon, Chase – star players make big plays, and often these games come down to a barrage of big moments down the stretch.

This game should be a ton of fun. Burrow and Mahomes are built similarly– they have poise in big moments, cannon arms, and they’re creative and aggressive down field. Just like last week’s Bills/Chiefs game, where we cashed big on a 3 star over play, the over appears to be the best play again in the AFC Championship. Life’s too short to bet the under – I’m on these two explosive offenses to put on a show. And let’s be honest– do you really believe these two stud QBs can be limited to under 30 points? Didn’t think so.

49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 (-130), 2.6 units: When most people talk about these teams, they talk about the offensive stars, and for good reason. The Rams boast some of the most exciting talent in the NFL– a two-headed beast in Sony Michel and the resurgent Cam Akers at RB, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. at WR, Tyler Higbee, who’s climbing the TE ranks, and of course Matthew Stafford. In his first year with the Rams, Stafford fought adversity and some interception-laden stretches of the season to lead his team into the NFC Championship game. Only one test remains for them to reach the Super Bowl– the team they just can’t beat, the 49ers. San Francisco has all-world offensive talent of their own: Jimmy Garoppolo, who just wins and wins, TE Greg Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, and arguably the best offensive tackle in the NFL: Trent Williams. Both of these units are exceptional and it’s not hard to imagine plenty of points in this game. I just don’t think those points will come very often in the first 15 minutes.

If you watched the 49ers on defense last week, it’s likely that you saw a ton of plays made by Fred Warner. The 6’3″ linebacker was everywhere on the field last Sunday, chasing Aaron Rodgers, forcing a fumble, and earning 6 solo tackles. Nick Bosa is a well-known QB-wrecker, and the Niners have an unsung secondary that only allows 207 pass yards through the air. The Rams defense is well-documented. Led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have one of the best all-around units in the NFL. Last week, Von Miller was a wrecking ball, making one big play after another against the legendary Tom Brady. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Rams prevailed, and he looks primed to have another big game against Jimmy G. and the surging 49ers.

In the last contest, only 3 points were scored in the 1st quarter. On the year, the Rams and Niners average 8.7 combined points in the first 15 minutes of play. This is a division game with two teams that know each other really well. More points may come as the game goes on, both squads certainly have the potential, but expect a conservative battle in the trenches as both teams approach cautiously. I love the under in the 1st.

January 28th NBA Premium Play

By
Michael Fordham
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*NBA(1u): Magic -3.5(-110) vs Pistons–6:10 PM CT

I typically lay off of these ugly NBA games, but I do think this spot favors the Magic. The Magic have lost twice this season to the Pistons, so unlike most nights, I think we’ll get a true effort out of Orlando tonight. While the Magic are pretty putrid offensively, they do rank 7th in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. This will be the 4th game of Orlando’s home stand that has yet to see them play a back-to-back, so the rest and travel advantage lays with the Magic. Detroit just completed a West Coast road trip before a brief stop back at home, but this team is even more dismal than Orlando in my mind. The Pistons have been horrible on both ends of the floor and have lost 5 of 6 entering this matchup. Orlando usually puts up a pretty good effort even against playoff teams before “tanking” games away with a bad quarter. In a double revenge spot with the travel advantage, I like the Magic to pull away late and cover this number tonight.

Premiums, 1.28

By
Chris R. Farley
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What a grind this week has been. We finish + units after the Warriors gain distance and win and Purdue proves all the sharps wrong. Onto Friday!

NBA Picks:
  • Hawks -2 **
    • I really like the way Atlanta is playing right now – balanced, efficient basketball, and they’re at home against a Boston team that could easily get overwhelmed. Trae lights ’em up in the 2nd half.
  • Blazers/Rockets over 232 **
    • Two fast-paced teams that don’t play defense? If this over doesn’t hit, I quit. No not seriously but, c’mon – with the way these overs are hitting this week, there’s no reason why this one shouldn’t.
  • Lean, Pelicans +5.5…
    • I can’t pull the trigger just yet since Ingram is questionable but if he plays, I love the Pels to be frisky tonight. They’ve won their last 4 at home and Denver is due some competition.
  • Bucks -9 **
    • Beatdown city – a healthy Bucks team, at home after a loss, should completely dominate the Knicks tonight.
  • Bucks TT over 112.5 **
    • These two teams had plenty of offensive success against each other before and NYK’s defense has yet to show signs of sustained improvement. Bucks roll and score plenty tonight. Also like the over.
NFL Conference Picks: 
  • Bengals +7 **
    • How many times does Burrow have to prove that he’s elite? In case you missed my Tweet, if there’s a rematch between two teams in the conference championship round, the team that won in the regular season has gone 9-2 since 2014. The Bengals beat KC in Week 17 – and I think they could do it again. I’ll be sprinkling on the ML, too – Burrow is special.
  • Bengals over 23.5 points **
  • Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 **
    • Do I really need an explanation here?
  • 49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 **
  • 49ers +3.5 *
    • Cautious because the Rams NEED TO beat SF one of these days, and I think they do, but how can this not be a FG game between two divisional rivals?
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris 
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