On January 9^th, SF overcame a 17-0 deficit to defeat the LA Rams in overtime.  That got the 49ers into the playoffs.  Once there, the dangerous 49ers have won at Dallas and at GB, both times playing stellar defense.  LA had to regroup after that loss, but luckily retained the 4^th seed and easily took care of business vs. Arizona in round one.  Matchups favored LA last week at Tampa, but careless fumbles enabled the Bucs to tie the game at 27 apiece with just 24 seconds remaining.  With two perfect throws, Matthew Stafford put a positive spin on his eventual football legacy as LA beat Tampa, 30-27.  What’s next?  Stafford and the Rams are 0-2 vs. SF this season, and overall SF owns a six-game win streak in the series.

San Fran analysis: I give Shanahan credit for not messing up the 4^th quarter vs. GB, and for prevailing in less-than-ideal weather, with a QB obviously not at 100%.  But that’s not all.  By game’s end, both WR Kittle and do it all WR/RB Samuel were limping, and defensively, LB Warner (game time decision) and DL Bosa (concussion protocol) were at less than 100%.  Jimmy G was 23-32 vs. LA on 1/9, but with a 1-2 TD to interception ratio.  He was 15-19 in meeting #1.  RB Mitchell was 23-85 and is healthy, but has run just 44-149 in the playoffs after having far more success in the regular season.  Part of it of course is Tampa’s great run D, but LA’s run D is also quite stout.  Samuel ran 8-45 vs. LA and caught four passes for an additional 95 yards.  He’s 20-111 running in the playoffs and 6-82 receiving.  TE Kittle is gutting it out after being less than 100% healthy much of 2021.  WR’s Aiyuk and Jennings will likely need to step up their game for this one.  Aiyuk was not a factor last week but went 6-107 vs. LA (Jennings (6-94).  These five guys “appear” to be the players LA must stop, but I’ll discuss one more option at the end of this report.  Hats off to defensive coordinator Ryans, who clearly has had this team peak at season’s end.  I was skeptical of what he could accomplish in year #1, but the point defense has improved, as have defensive sacks.  It’s also been difficult to run on the 49ers.  Still, I’m not bullish on their pass D%, although holding Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers to just over 60% is admirable.  During the season SF allowed 68%.  Stafford was 21-32 (238 yards) in their last meeting.  SF has four interceptions in two games vs. Stafford, while sacking him seven times.  PK Gould is 20-20 in postseason play.  I have to add that SF’s kick return defense has been somewhat vulnerable.

LA analysis: “Good” Mathew Stafford has emerged in the postseason, this after a terrible stretch to end the regular season.  He’s 41-55 for 566 yards and a 4-0 ratio.  LA force-fed Cam Akers last week, and Cam did not fare well (24-48).  I was surprised RB Michel received ZERO carries.  Michel is less of a factor in the pass game, and if used, it should be in the run game.  RB Henderson was cleared last week but did not play.  In 12 games he ran 4.6 per carry, with 29 receptions.  His presence could diversify the offense.  Obviously, the all-in Rams have benefitted by adding WR Beckham on offense.  He’s fully integrated into the offense and more motivated than ever before.  He caught just two passes vs. SF on 1/9 but has caught 19 passes otherwise in his recent four games other than vs. SF.  WR Kupp has been amazing.  No one assigned to cover Kupp will be feared in this matchup.  WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee are the next guys up, and one or both need to make a difference in this game.  Jefferson has just three playoff receptions, and had a total of five receptions in two games vs. SF.  The reliable Higbee has seven playoff receptions and 61 regular season receptions in his 15 games, with nine of those receptions coming vs. SF.  LA’s defense sacked SF three times in the regular season finale but just once in their earlier meeting.  LA’s pass D% regressed this past season (66.6%) but has been stout vs. Murray and Brady in the playoffs (55.7%).  As noted, Jimmy G has been effective vs. LA.  That’s one stat sheet battle line to watch.  LA has been strong vs. the run all season long.  SF is one of the better rushing teams, typical in Shanahan’s tenure.  SF ran 44-156 in their 1^st meeting and 31-135 in the 1/9 game.  I’d say that’s not a bad stat line from either perspective.  All-in?  Defensively, Von Miller has clearly added value.  He has 28 tackles and seven sacks in his last six games, including a five tackle-one sack performance vs. SF.  Once again, SF’s OL has a challenge on their hands.

Some matchup analysis and game keys: SF will script their 1^st 15 plays but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some variety.  A jet sweep or two could be part of the mix early or late.  Could we see a Trey Lance sighting?  Kyle Juszczyk had only eight regular season carries but had two key rush attempts last week.  He caught 30 passes.  Could he see some action down in the red zone in this matchup?  We saw last Sunday that Tampa had to use TE Gronkowski for blocking purposes until he was absolutely essential to the pass game when they got down 27-3.  Kittle may have to split his time as well vs. the LA pass rush.  As part of my game keys that means Jennings and/or Aiyuk have to come through.  LA took the pressure of Stafford in the playoff win vs. Arizona, needing him to pass but 17 times.  Ideally, they establish the run, but I’d like to see Henderson involved as well.  Other than that, I think we’ll see the usual suspects in their offensive attack.  One defensive key is to get more pressure on Jimmy G.  Fluster him, and LA is in charge.  Let him have space, and he has shown he can complete passes vs. LA’s secondary.

Thursday morning thoughts: Which QB will avoid turnovers?  Who wins the sack battle?  Can any of the star players for either team be stopped?  These teams know each other quite well.  Both have confidence.  No decision at this time.  This is one game where charting individual matchups and game flow will be critical to making a decision as to who wins the game.

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Joe Burrow survived nine sacks and as time was running out, completed a key pass, enabling the Bengals to win with no time left.  Patrick Mahomes one-upped him, escaping pressure numerous times and then completing two passes in nine seconds to enable KC to kick a game-tying field goal before winning the coin toss and beating Buffalo in overtime.  On January 2^nd, these teams played an epic game of their own.  Saying no to conservatism, Zac Taylor and Cincy went for the win late when hosting KC, and after two penalty calls, got the late TD to win 34-31.  This rematch is in KC.

Cincy analysis: It’s well documented that Cincy’s OL is the worst in the NFL at pass protection.  They allowed 55 sacks in the regular season and another 11 in the postseason.  KC, however is a below average sacking team, with less than two per game.  What happened in the week 17 meeting?  KC had a 4-0 sack edge.  Burrow was the NFL’s most accurate QB.  He was 30-39 vs KC, for 446 yards and a 4-0 TD to interception ratio.  Joe Mixon ran 12-46, and caught seven passes.  He has 31 playoff carries, but just for a 3.3 per carry average.  WR Chase was 11-266 vs. KC and has gone 14-225 in the playoffs.  After battling some injuries, Tee Higgins has regained his form, and is 8-106 in the playoffs.  WR Boyd has been relegated to complimentary status but a typical stat line for him is 4-40.  Emerging TE Uzomah has excelled in the playoffs, going 13-135.  It’s these five players that consume most of the targets from Burrow.  Cincy has modest defensive sack totals, and clearly won’t have an easy time getting to Mahomes.  Of concern is their 41-243 playoff run defense, which was better during the regular season.  KC ran well at 23-155 vs. Cincy, with Mahomes just 2-25.  Cincy did a nice job stopping Carr (Vegas) and Tannehill (Tennessee) but this was not a good pass D during the season, and facing Mahomes (26-35, 259, 2-0 ratio in 1^st meeting) won’t be easy.  All four playoff kickers are near elite.  Cincy’s rookie kicker is full of confidence.

KC analysis: KC’s only loss since the end of week eight was to Cincy.  Like in 2021, many of their outcomes have been close, but this year has a different feel to it with Mahomes fully healthy and the offense making numerous adjustments in style.  As I frequently documented, KC started an all-new OL game one.  In their final ten regular season games they allowed just 14 sacks.  That had more than modest correlation to their change in turnovers, which at one point in 2021 was -11.  KC finished with a turnover ratio of +4.  To beat KC, you have to outscore them.  Buffalo has a much tougher pass D and also a tougher run D.  Like it or not, Covid has affected NFL performances.  Kelce missed 12/26 due to covid protocols.  He returned to go just 5-25 vs. Cincy, and just 4-34 the following week at Denver.  He served notice last week that he was back to 100%, and that’s not good news for the Bengals.  Both Kelce and Hill are back at peak form, and as said above, KC has a shot at better run-pass balance vs. Cincy’s defense.  Jerick McKinnon has added a new dimension to KC’s offense, and RB Helaire returned and was effective in limited action.  WR’s Pringle, Hardman and perhaps Demarcus Robinson add depth.  No team can cover all of these guys.  KC’s defense is not as good as in recent years.  The pass D% was higher than usual and has allowed 69.1% in two playoff games.  The run D has often been below average and was especially vulnerable this year.  In two playoff games they have improved to 44-165.  If they hold Cincy down like they did on January 2^nd (19-60), it could force Burrow to make at least one poor decision.  Then again, Burrow hasn’t made many poor decisions of late.  Hill and Pringle are potential game busters in the return game.

Some matchup analysis and game keys: I feel Cincy’s game plan needs to feature Joe Mixon more in this rematch.  12 carries will not be enough, as you have to keep Mahomes off the field.  Their goal has to be 20-90.  WR Chase gets the glory, but don’t sleep on Higgins.  The job defensively is much tougher.  Cincy likely has a ceiling of two defensive sacks, so do they spy on Mahomes and give him time in the pocket, or double the top two targets, giving Pringle and McKinnon free space?  KC has guys who are capable of getting another four sacks on Burrow, with my (usual) concern being their undisciplined play, going offsides often, and roughing the QB.  They do get a referee crew who doesn’t tend to call many penalties.  My keys: Can Mixon run in excess of 90+ yards?  Can Burrow remain turnover-free?  Will KC’s defense be vulnerable enough to swing time of possession in Cincy’s favor?  Will KC’s home field advantage and Cincy’s lack of playoff experience come into play, or, is it just that Cincy is riding the wave right now, blissfully unaware of what they are accomplishing?

Tuesday afternoon thoughts: No pick at this time, but I lean KC’s team total OVER, and perhaps the game over as well.  Maybe the big stage catches up to Cincy, but the backdoor (cover) is always open thanks to Joe Burrow, coupled with KC’s mediocre defense.  I’m assuming DB Mathieu plays.  If he doesn’t, that’s one highly instinctive player missing from the back end.  Ultimately, the game and the spread may be decided by Joe Mixon overachieving vs. KC’s below par run defense.

Visit me on twitter @ronacesports where I provide thoughts about all things football, including day of game quick previews and post-game recaps.