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January 17th Premium Card

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): Notre Dame TT OVER 80(-120) vs Howard–1:30 PM CT

Howard has played 2 teams from “big conferences” this season: Villanova and Georgetown. Villanova hung 100 on the Bison, while Georgetown managed to put up 85. Howard’s defense is atrocious(268th in KenPom), and by going at the 30th fastest pace in the country, their opposition has plenty of opportunities to hang up crooked numbers. Over their past 4 games(all in conference play), Notre Dame has averaged 73.8 PPG; none of those opponents(outside of North Carolina) like to push the pace, and all play respectable defense. This is a step down in competition for Notre Dame, and given Howard’s style of play, I don’t think it will take much for the Fighting Irish to crack 80 today. 

*NBA(1u): Nets +3(-110) @ Cavaliers–2:10 PM CT

The Cavaliers are playing really good basketball at the moment, but this is a bad spot for them. Coming off a 6 game road trip(which concluded in just 9 days), they return back home in a 3 games in 4 nights scenario only to have to hop back on a plane in route to Chicago after today’s game. Fatigue is going to start to come into play. While the Nets lost Kevin Durant to a knee injury on Saturday, they will have Kyrie Irving available for today’s game. Irving makes a huge difference and makes you remember how nice it is to have a TRUE point guard. Brooklyn has the major rest advantage here and is coming off a 2 game home stand. Winning on the road in Utah is impressive, but other than that, Cleveland beat Portland, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Oklahoma City on their recent road trip. I’m not sure this team is proven enough to be laying points against the Nets, and given this spot, I have no problem playing against them today. 

Premiums, 1.17

By
Chris R. Farley
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Just an “eh” day in the NFL, probably expected after the tear we had in Circa, but another good day in NBA bets. We’re 35-14 (71%) over the last 3 weeks!

MLK Day games usually have more fire in them – looking at a few unders today but in general, I don’t love very much on this slate. Here are my picks:
NBA:
  • Pels/Celtics under 215.5 ** The Pels play to the other team’s rhythm and Boston will slow this down.
  • Grizzlies TT over 115 * This version of the Bulls, without Caruso and Ball, has struggled to stop anyone. Memphis at home should feast.
  • Raptors/Heat under 211 ** Two defense-predicated teams that should go head to head in the paint and make life difficult for each other.
  • Spurs +5 * The Suns have been SO good on the road but eventually this has to end. The Spurs are in a great spot to keep this close or win.
NFL:
  • Rams -3.5 *

Rob Vinciletti: Monday NBA Totals System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Monday card has the Triple System Wild card Power Play, sides on a 3-0 Playoff run. In Hoops we have an NCAAB Platinum Supreme move and a 5* NBA Power System Side. NBA Comp Total. Below.

On Monday the NBA Comp totals play is on the Over in the Oklahoma City at Dallas game at 8:40 eastern. The game has a neat totals system that has flown over 15 of 20 times long term for road dogs of 10 or more that enter off a home dog loss and prior road dog win and a road dog loss three back vs a team like Dallas that is favored. The Thunder are ranked at the lower half in defense and do play up tempo so this one likely goes over the total. On Monday we have a big Power Card up with a triple system Wild card winner, an NCAAB Platinum Supreme total and NBA 5* Power Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we start the week big. For the NBA Comp play. Go over the total OKC and Dallas. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

NFL Wildcard Weekend Free Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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San Francisco vs Dallas -3 O/U 51

I have to appreciate what San Francisco did here to get to the post season.   No playoff  team has had more ups and downs than the 49ers this year and you have to appreciate the great play of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranking 4th in EPA + Completion percentage over expectation and 14th in QBR.   In saying that, Dak Prescott isn’t exactly a pushover himself ranking 14th in EPA + CPOE and 9th in QBR.  San Francisco probably has the coaching advantage here with Shanahan vs McCarthy, but Dallas has been red hot most of the season and they seem to have more talent at the skill positions.  San Francisco is 6th in offensive EPA while Dallas ranks 7th but Dallas ranks 3rd in defensive EPA while the Niners rank 13th. Dallas is number 1 in DVOA while the 49ers are number 6 from football outsiders.  Now for me, I see that Dallas has a very tight aggressive defense where they will give up a few big plays in order to jump routs and force interceptions.  Dallas has also kept a lot of their opponents out the the end zone only allowing a 7th best 21.1 points per game on much harder schedule than San Francisco.   The kicker for me here is that Dallas has a nice passing matchup advantage ranking 6th in drop-back EPA on offense to the 49ers 23rd on defense.  I think Dallas can keep scoring points unlike the Rams did last week.   Gotta go with the Boys.

Dallas -3 -115 – 2.5 stars

 

Super Wildcard Weekend Free Play!

By
Steve Norman
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Wow! LFG! What an awesome way to end week 18 in the NFL last week. From our top 5 finish in Circa to 3-0 in our free picks! Let’s keep that momentum rolling as we continue this awesome journey. Super Wild Card weekend is now among us and I personally am surprised with some of the teams that snuck in. Now let’s see if they take advantage of their good fortune or” Wentz it up” this week.

 Current NFL record: 148-103 (58%) Units: +44.14

Pit +12.5 (-107)

 Common knowledge we always hear in this industry is to, “fade the noise”. That saying could not be anymore true this week. There has been a lot of talk and frankly disrespect that the Steelers have absolutely no chance in this game. Others have even said this game is a, “bye-like week” for the Chiefs and maybe they should consider resting players. I am not buying that for one second. Not only is this the volatile NFL where any team is capable of beating anyone at any given time. This is the NFL PLAYOFFS! If you think the same Steelers team is going to show up and get blown out in KC they way they did in week 16, you are mistaken.

First and foremost: Underdogs are 15-3 ATS in the Wild Card round the last 4 seasons and have been 10-8 Straight up. Those trends are for a good reason. Playoffs are essentially a new season…. A clean slate….. all or nothing and the Steelers are playing with house money.   When a team is playing with nothing to lose and zero expectations they can be very dangerous. Big Ben himself sarcastically acknowledged that they are a “bad football team” and they are playing to “have fun”. Don’t think for a second Steeler football and that tough blue-collar culture will lay down for this game.

We know the talent that surrounds Patrick Mahomes and there is plenty of it. However, we have seen it time and time again this Kansas City team can be extremely shaky this season: offensively and defensively. From suspect Mahomes throws/decisions to blown defensive coverage’s. This KC team is human. Tyreek Hill’s heel has been an issue as of late but is not considered to be a “large issue” this week. News came out that running back CEH will be a no go in this game, this stacked with back up running back Darrel Williams having toe issues may mean KC running game may struggle.   We know KC is a pass heavy team in general and Steelers have the defensive front to make Mahomes struggle and possibly disrupt this KC attack.

12.5 is too many points for me in this spot. We cannot expect to see the same Steeler team that got blown out. I think Big Ben and this team rallies to make this an exciting close game. This is a spot for a vintage Steeler like showing of playing up to their competition. Steelers Lean on Najee Harris….Big Ben controls the ball and makes veteran plays to keep this close. Pit +12.5

Premiums, 1.16

By
Chris R. Farley
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Hi all! You might’ve seen my picks already on Twitter, I gave them out for free, but here they are below just in case, along with my NFL premiums. Happy Sunday!

NBA Picks:
  • HOU/SAC 239 ** These defenses are due positive regression and the offenses are due negative regression. I don’t expect this game to go exactly like the previous one 2 days ago, which means the under should hit.
  • Jazz -4.5 ** The Jazz are finally mostly healthy and the Nuggets are off a back to back. Denver is 1-5 ATS with no rest. I fully expect the Jazz to wax the Nuggs.
NFL Full Premiums, Wild Card Weekend: 
  • Bengals -5.5 *
  • Raiders/Bengals over 49 **
  • Patriots +4 **
  • Eagles +8.5 **
  • Eagles ML (sprinkle, up to you what you wager, I suggest nothing big)
  • 49ers +3 **
  • 49ers win *
  • Steelers +13 **
  • Rams -4 *

Rob Vinciletti: Sunday NCAAB Comp Play + Wild Card Sunday Info

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Sunday card ;ed by the Wild Card Total of the Year with a Perfect System and a Powerful 6* Side. There is a Powerful NBA Court Crusher,  Exclusive NCAAB RPI Scale system and Soccer. NCAAB Comp Play below.

The NCAAB Comp Play is on Navy at 1:00 eastern. Navy looks tp bounce back off a 19 point home loss to Colgate and they are a solid defensive team ranked 20th over all and 22nd in rebounding. The Midshipmen are 4-0 Ats on Sundays,7-1 ats off a loss and have covers in 5 of 6 vs a winning team. They are ranked 129 in the RPI Compared to 207th for Boston. The Terriers have failed to cover 12 of 16 on Sundays, 14 of 20 off a spread loss and 7 straight at home vs a team that has a .600 or higher road winning percentage. With the road team on a 6-1 spread run in this series we will go with Navy. On Sunday we have 3 BIG NFL Plays, including a 100% 6* Side and our Wild Card Total of the Year. We also have an NBA Court crusher and our Exclusive NCAAB RPI Scale system plays as well as Afternoon Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on .Jump on now and Cash out. For the NCAAB Play. Make it the Midshipmen. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

Premiums, 1.15

By
Chris R. Farley
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Guys, I’m hurting. lol. At the Vegas airport trying to make it through. Anyway, I don’t love a lot on the slate today, unfortunately. Which is probably partially because I’m hungover af and haven’t had the time to research as much. Thank you for understanding, these are unique circumstances, obviously.

You got my NFL picks – tread lightly on the NBA today. A lot of injuries and back to backs.

NBA Picks:
  • Wizards -7.5 *
  • Bulls/Celtics over 216 *
  • Lakers +4 *

January 15th CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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In addition to this free play, I have 3 other CBB plays for today that are reserved for my premium members. With a winner on the Suns last night, my premium plays are now hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members +38.6u(on a 1/1.5/2 unit scale) since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CBB(1u): Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 135.5(-110)–3 PM CT

TCU has just the 95th rated offense according to KenPom and pairs that by going at the 272nd fastest pace in the country. Oklahoma goes pretty slow themselves(232nd) and should bring a good defensive effort coming off a bad performance at Texas. Neither one of these teams is particularly great offensively, which is why I can’t wrap my head around why this total is in the mid-130’s. In my mind, I see this as a 64-61 type of game that could really go in either direction. As has come custom in the Big12, this should be a defensive struggle that stays UNDER the total. 

January 15th CBB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): Florida/South Carolina UNDER 142(-110)–Noon PM CT

Florida started the season very well, but after 3 straight losses, the Gators sit at 9-6 and at a crossroads. The higher scoring the game, the worse Florida has fared. We saw them slow things down against LSU earlier this week which kept them in the game until the finish. South Carolina plays good defense all things considered, and given this is a road game, I don’t think the Gators will be overly efficient offensively. That said, South Carolina’s offense is the worst in the SEC by a pretty sizeable margin; with a borderline Top 25 defense, Florida shouldn’t have too hard of a time getting stops today. This game will be played at a much slower pace than this total suggests; I’ll play this one Under. 

*CBB(1u): Florida St/Syracuse UNDER 149.5(-110)–2 PM CT

Syracuse is one of the better offenses in College Basketball, but their defense has failed them virtually all season. However, they did allow only 61 points to Pitt in their last game and get a more manageable matchup than people think today. Florida State has gone on a nice little run in recent years, but this is not one of Lenoard Hamilton’s better teams. This Seminoles team doesn’t excel at shooting the 3, which is the one area of the game that can break Syracuse’s zone defense. These teams played earlier this season, with Syracuse inching out a 63-60 win. This total has stuck at the same number it was in their last matchup, but given how these teams match up, I will absolutely play this one Under the total. 

*CBB(1u): Baylor -14(-110) vs Oklahoma State–4 PM CT

This is a nightmare spot for Oklahoma State. Not only will this be the 3rd game in 5 days for Oklahoma State, but all those games have come on the road(West Virginia and Texas Tech were prior). They looked sluggish at Texas Tech on Thursday night and really just don’t have the offensive firepower to match up with a Top 5 team like Baylor. When you throw fatigue into the mix, their defense(which is usually solid) will start to be impacted as well. We are also getting Baylor coming off a loss. I wouldn’t downgrade Baylor for losing a tough road game to Texas Tech; the Big12 really is just the toughest conference in CBB. Given this spot, the Bears can really name their number in this one. 

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