Line on this game hasn’t budged in most but seeing some books moving starting to move toward Holy Cross. This is another head scratcher in a week that has been puzzling as far as line moves go. Lehigh’s record at 8-13 is unimpressive but misleading as they are second in the Patriot League at 6-3 while Holy Cross is 3-15, 1-5 in conference games.
Lehigh has been inconsistent as far as wins go and have shown a zig-zag pattern of late, winning one or two, then a bad loss. Perhaps that is what has the market heading the Crusaders way. Or perhaps there is some COVID/ injury information I’m not seeing. The line move has me weary of going as hard as I’d like, but what Lehigh has been consistent in, is covering the spread. The Mountain Hawks coming into this one covering 8 of their L10 and are 7-2 ATS in conference.
Holy Cross has struggled to meet expectations in the market at 4-12 ATS. The Crusaders are only 2-4 ATS in conference and coming off an 18-point loss to fellow bottom feeder American U, who is 8th in Patriot play. I’m willing to trust the more proven team on the road here. While there are some books with the -4.5, I also like Lehigh at the -5. Earlier tip off starting at 5 pm EST.
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What’s up everyone?! The final four teams clash in the final week of pro football before the big dance – who comes out on top? What’s the best way to approach betting these games? Check out my thoughts, below!
Currently on a 49-28 (63%) NBA run the last month, and we’re up to +60 units this season. Hit this link to get my premium plays every day in your inbox!
Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 (-110), 2.2 units: Here we go with another over but it just seems too obvious (which actually makes it a little scary but, I digress). The Kansas City defense has improved in the second half of the season; there’s no doubt about it. We have them as a top 10 unit in the final 9 weeks. They’ve found ways to limit run games, they can be sneaky good against the pass, and they have dynamic athletes like Chris Jones who can get to the quarterback. The defense for KC hasn’t been “a problem” like it was in years past and I don’t think it’ll be the problem heading into Sunday. The real issue for KC’s defense has nothing to do with them– it’s the talent and disposition of a young Bengals’ offense. The tenacity of Joe Burrow is unquestionable at this point. In week 17, he threw for 446 yards and 4 TDs against the Chiefs, overcoming an 11 point deficit at home, without a run game, and while facing a tremendous amount of pressure for most of the contest. On Sunday, the Chiefs may be without arguably their most important defensive player, the “Honey Badger,” Tyrann Mathieu. Mathieu suffered a concussion in the first quarter against the Bills and it’s still unclear if he’ll play. Watch for his status– Mathieu is not only a skilled defender, he’s the leader of that defense. The Chiefs could lose considerable poise when they need it most if he can’t gear up. It also probably doesn’t help that KC face a quarterback who leads the NFL in completion percentage… buckle up!
Both of these squads are better on run defense than they are against the pass, ranked in the bottom third of the league in most of the latter categories. And even if Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes face a ton of pressure in this game, it’s unlikely they can be contained for all 60 minutes. The best talent on the field is on offense: Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, Burrow, Mixon, Chase – star players make big plays, and often these games come down to a barrage of big moments down the stretch.
This game should be a ton of fun. Burrow and Mahomes are built similarly– they have poise in big moments, cannon arms, and they’re creative and aggressive down field. Just like last week’s Bills/Chiefs game, where we cashed big on a 3 star over play, the over appears to be the best play again in the AFC Championship. Life’s too short to bet the under – I’m on these two explosive offenses to put on a show. And let’s be honest– do you really believe these two stud QBs can be limited to under 30 points? Didn’t think so.
49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 (-130), 2.6 units: When most people talk about these teams, they talk about the offensive stars, and for good reason. The Rams boast some of the most exciting talent in the NFL– a two-headed beast in Sony Michel and the resurgent Cam Akers at RB, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. at WR, Tyler Higbee, who’s climbing the TE ranks, and of course Matthew Stafford. In his first year with the Rams, Stafford fought adversity and some interception-laden stretches of the season to lead his team into the NFC Championship game. Only one test remains for them to reach the Super Bowl– the team they just can’t beat, the 49ers. San Francisco has all-world offensive talent of their own: Jimmy Garoppolo, who just wins and wins, TE Greg Kittle, WR Deebo Samuel, and arguably the best offensive tackle in the NFL: Trent Williams. Both of these units are exceptional and it’s not hard to imagine plenty of points in this game. I just don’t think those points will come very often in the first 15 minutes.
If you watched the 49ers on defense last week, it’s likely that you saw a ton of plays made by Fred Warner. The 6’3″ linebacker was everywhere on the field last Sunday, chasing Aaron Rodgers, forcing a fumble, and earning 6 solo tackles. Nick Bosa is a well-known QB-wrecker, and the Niners have an unsung secondary that only allows 207 pass yards through the air. The Rams defense is well-documented. Led by Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, the Rams have one of the best all-around units in the NFL. Last week, Von Miller was a wrecking ball, making one big play after another against the legendary Tom Brady. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Rams prevailed, and he looks primed to have another big game against Jimmy G. and the surging 49ers.
In the last contest, only 3 points were scored in the 1st quarter. On the year, the Rams and Niners average 8.7 combined points in the first 15 minutes of play. This is a division game with two teams that know each other really well. More points may come as the game goes on, both squads certainly have the potential, but expect a conservative battle in the trenches as both teams approach cautiously. I love the under in the 1st.
I typically lay off of these ugly NBA games, but I do think this spot favors the Magic. The Magic have lost twice this season to the Pistons, so unlike most nights, I think we’ll get a true effort out of Orlando tonight. While the Magic are pretty putrid offensively, they do rank 7th in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games. This will be the 4th game of Orlando’s home stand that has yet to see them play a back-to-back, so the rest and travel advantage lays with the Magic. Detroit just completed a West Coast road trip before a brief stop back at home, but this team is even more dismal than Orlando in my mind. The Pistons have been horrible on both ends of the floor and have lost 5 of 6 entering this matchup. Orlando usually puts up a pretty good effort even against playoff teams before “tanking” games away with a bad quarter. In a double revenge spot with the travel advantage, I like the Magic to pull away late and cover this number tonight.
What a grind this week has been. We finish + units after the Warriors gain distance and win and Purdue proves all the sharps wrong. Onto Friday!
NBA Picks:
Hawks -2 **
I really like the way Atlanta is playing right now – balanced, efficient basketball, and they’re at home against a Boston team that could easily get overwhelmed. Trae lights ’em up in the 2nd half.
Blazers/Rockets over 232 **
Two fast-paced teams that don’t play defense? If this over doesn’t hit, I quit. No not seriously but, c’mon – with the way these overs are hitting this week, there’s no reason why this one shouldn’t.
Lean, Pelicans +5.5…
I can’t pull the trigger just yet since Ingram is questionable but if he plays, I love the Pels to be frisky tonight. They’ve won their last 4 at home and Denver is due some competition.
Bucks -9 **
Beatdown city – a healthy Bucks team, at home after a loss, should completely dominate the Knicks tonight.
Bucks TT over 112.5 **
These two teams had plenty of offensive success against each other before and NYK’s defense has yet to show signs of sustained improvement. Bucks roll and score plenty tonight. Also like the over.
NFL Conference Picks:
Bengals +7 **
How many times does Burrow have to prove that he’s elite? In case you missed my Tweet, if there’s a rematch between two teams in the conference championship round, the team that won in the regular season has gone 9-2 since 2014. The Bengals beat KC in Week 17 – and I think they could do it again. I’ll be sprinkling on the ML, too – Burrow is special.
Bengals over 23.5 points **
Bengals/Chiefs over 54.5 **
Do I really need an explanation here?
49ers/Rams 1Q under 9.5 **
49ers +3.5 *
Cautious because the Rams NEED TO beat SF one of these days, and I think they do, but how can this not be a FG game between two divisional rivals?
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
We have a great show for you today! Covid Kiev is on a 7-1 run in college hoops and he goes solo to discuss a big weekend in sports! First, Kiev answers a great listener question from Glenn Middleton. Then, Kiev talks about the huge NFL games! What are the narratives in this game? Which ways are people betting it? What might they be overlooking? Next, Kiev gives out some free plays for the big weekend in the NFL. Then, Kiev talks some college hoops! Which teams have teams are buy low and which teams are sell high? What’s the deal with the Big 12 / SEC challenge? Finally, Kiev gives out some college hoops free plays!
NFL: San Francisco vs LA Rams – Cincinnati vs Kansas City and more!
NCAA: Kentucky vs Kansas – Michigan vs Michigan State and more!
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On January 9th, SF overcame a 17-0 deficit to defeat the LA Rams in overtime. That got the 49ers into the playoffs. Once there, the dangerous 49ers have won at Dallas and at GB, both times playing stellar defense. LA had to regroup after that loss, but luckily retained the 4th seed and easily took care of business vs. Arizona in round one. Matchups favored LA last week at Tampa, but careless fumbles enabled the Bucs to tie the game at 27 apiece with just 24 seconds remaining. With two perfect throws, Matthew Stafford put a positive spin on his eventual football legacy as LA beat Tampa, 30-27. What’s next? Stafford and the Rams are 0-2 vs. SF this season, and overall SF owns a six-game win streak in the series.
San Fran analysis: I give Shanahan credit for not messing up the 4th quarter vs. GB, and for prevailing in less-than-ideal weather, with a QB obviously not at 100%. But that’s not all. By game’s end, both WR Kittle and do it all WR/RB Samuel were limping, and defensively, LB Warner (game time decision) and DL Bosa (concussion protocol) were at less than 100%. Jimmy G was 23-32 vs. LA on 1/9, but with a 1-2 TD to interception ratio. He was 15-19 in meeting #1. RB Mitchell was 23-85 and is healthy, but has run just 44-149 in the playoffs after having far more success in the regular season. Part of it of course is Tampa’s great run D, but LA’s run D is also quite stout. Samuel ran 8-45 vs. LA and caught four passes for an additional 95 yards. He’s 20-111 running in the playoffs and 6-82 receiving. TE Kittle is gutting it out after being less than 100% healthy much of 2021. WR’s Aiyuk and Jennings will likely need to step up their game for this one. Aiyuk was not a factor last week but went 6-107 vs. LA (Jennings (6-94). These five guys “appear” to be the players LA must stop, but I’ll discuss one more option at the end of this report. Hats off to defensive coordinator Ryans, who clearly has had this team peak at season’s end. I was skeptical of what he could accomplish in year #1, but the point defense has improved, as have defensive sacks. It’s also been difficult to run on the 49ers. Still, I’m not bullish on their pass D%, although holding Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers to just over 60% is admirable. During the season SF allowed 68%. Stafford was 21-32 (238 yards) in their last meeting. SF has four interceptions in two games vs. Stafford, while sacking him seven times. PK Gould is 20-20 in postseason play. I have to add that SF’s kick return defense has been somewhat vulnerable.
LA analysis: “Good” Mathew Stafford has emerged in the postseason, this after a terrible stretch to end the regular season. He’s 41-55 for 566 yards and a 4-0 ratio. LA force-fed Cam Akers last week, and Cam did not fare well (24-48). I was surprised RB Michel received ZERO carries. Michel is less of a factor in the pass game, and if used, it should be in the run game. RB Henderson was cleared last week but did not play. In 12 games he ran 4.6 per carry, with 29 receptions. His presence could diversify the offense. Obviously, the all-in Rams have benefitted by adding WR Beckham on offense. He’s fully integrated into the offense and more motivated than ever before. He caught just two passes vs. SF on 1/9 but has caught 19 passes otherwise in his recent four games other than vs. SF. WR Kupp has been amazing. No one assigned to cover Kupp will be feared in this matchup. WR Van Jefferson and TE Tyler Higbee are the next guys up, and one or both need to make a difference in this game. Jefferson has just three playoff receptions, and had a total of five receptions in two games vs. SF. The reliable Higbee has seven playoff receptions and 61 regular season receptions in his 15 games, with nine of those receptions coming vs. SF. LA’s defense sacked SF three times in the regular season finale but just once in their earlier meeting. LA’s pass D% regressed this past season (66.6%) but has been stout vs. Murray and Brady in the playoffs (55.7%). As noted, Jimmy G has been effective vs. LA. That’s one stat sheet battle line to watch. LA has been strong vs. the run all season long. SF is one of the better rushing teams, typical in Shanahan’s tenure. SF ran 44-156 in their 1st meeting and 31-135 in the 1/9 game. I’d say that’s not a bad stat line from either perspective. All-in? Defensively, Von Miller has clearly added value. He has 28 tackles and seven sacks in his last six games, including a five tackle-one sack performance vs. SF. Once again, SF’s OL has a challenge on their hands.
Some matchup analysis and game keys: SF will script their 1st 15 plays but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some variety. A jet sweep or two could be part of the mix early or late. Could we see a Trey Lance sighting? Kyle Juszczyk had only eight regular season carries but had two key rush attempts last week. He caught 30 passes. Could he see some action down in the red zone in this matchup? We saw last Sunday that Tampa had to use TE Gronkowski for blocking purposes until he was absolutely essential to the pass game when they got down 27-3. Kittle may have to split his time as well vs. the LA pass rush. As part of my game keys that means Jennings and/or Aiyuk have to come through. LA took the pressure of Stafford in the playoff win vs. Arizona, needing him to pass but 17 times. Ideally, they establish the run, but I’d like to see Henderson involved as well. Other than that, I think we’ll see the usual suspects in their offensive attack. One defensive key is to get more pressure on Jimmy G. Fluster him, and LA is in charge. Let him have space, and he has shown he can complete passes vs. LA’s secondary.
Thursday morning thoughts: Which QB will avoid turnovers? Who wins the sack battle? Can any of the star players for either team be stopped? These teams know each other quite well. Both have confidence. No decision at this time. This is one game where charting individual matchups and game flow will be critical to making a decision as to who wins the game.
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Thursday card led by an Executive Level TIER 1 in NCAAB and a 5* NBA Court Crusher System. Wednesday Top Plays Sweep. NHL Comp play below.
The NHL Comp play is on the NY. Rangers at 7:05 eastern. NY is a heavy favorite here. However they do have all the numbers in this one. NY is ranked 2nd on defense compared to 26th for Columbus. The Blue Jackets were demolished here last night and take on a Ranger team with 2 day rest. A role in which they have won 8 of the last 10. In fact NY is 11-1 as a road favorite and has won 17 of 21 vs East Conference teams. They have won 4 of 5 here and the road team in the series has won 5 of the last 6. Columbus has dropped 15 of 21 vs Eastern Conference teams and are 1-7 with no rest. Look for the Rangers to win. On Thursday another big Card is up and led by an Executive Level TIER 1 in NCAAB and another big 5* NBA Banger system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to roll. For the NHL Comp play. Go with NY. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
This line is getting too short – I get that Iowa is great at home but the Boilermakers are national championship contenders this year. One unit * on Purdue -2 for me.
