Kentucky’s best win is against number 29 on Kenpom and 16 on Haslametric’s North Carolina which Tennessee beat them quite easily as well. The Vols have the better win vs Arizona, but they have more losses vs upper mid range opponents. Looking at the metrics, both of these teams are pretty solid around the board but Tennessee shoots a lot of 3s while only averaging 32.1% ranking 251st in the nation. The key for me this game is that the Vols are a bad road team shooting only 44% effective FG% which should give Kentucky a big edge being the 6th best rebounding team in the nation. Tennessee ranks 339th away from home on Haslametrics. Over the last 5 games between these 2, the home team has won and covered all 5 with ease.
Take Kentucky -4.5 – 2 stars
Seton Hall vs Marquette +1 O/U 153
Seton Hall is in a compromising spot after that bad Depaul Showing and then going to Marquette on very short rest. Marquette is top 6 in average possession length and loves to run while Seton Hall is as speedy 34th. Marquette is the number two team in momentum right now and they are running on rocket fuel but they will have a disadvantage inside where Seton hall is the taller team and is better at cleaning up the boards. Marquette should dictate the pace here and face pace has been working from them being that they have scored over 82 points in each of their last three games.
We have a huge slate of NHL games today. There was originally 16 games scheduled to take place but, 3 have been postponed so we’re down to 13.
As a hockey fan and NHL gambler, I know most people will not be focused on hockey today. There’s two NFL games going on, with the first one starting at 4:30 PM ET. However, I’m not particularly fond of the early games so hopefully everyone has two TVs.
I received some positive feedback about grading my bets from the day before so I’ll continue to do that. Last night we went 2-0 so I’ll grade both of those bets.
FLORIDA PANTHERS ML (-185)
I released this bet the night before expecting line movement in Florida’s favor and I was correct. The line closed at -210 which shows that even when you lay a high number like I did, it still has some value. It was a no sweat winner with Florida winning 7-1. GRADE: A
COLORADO/ SEATTLE OVER 6.5 (-110)
I spoke about this on the podcast but we’re staring to the totals open at 6.5 for some high powered teams, like Colorado. This line closed at -120/-125 so again we got some closing line value which is always what you’re hoping for. The score was 3-3 early in the 3rd which guaranteed us a win so it wasn’t too much of a sweat either. GRADE: A
Just a reminder my plays will be going premium next week so if you are interested in my NHL plays.
I will be sending out daily picks with detailed breakdowns. In addition to that, I will also be available to chat about the picks and any other games happening that day. As always if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me on any of my social media accounts.
Picks:
BUFFALO/ DETROIT OVER 5.5 (-125)
Aaron Dell is expected to start for the Sabres again tonight with their other starters remaining in protocols. He’s coming off a career night, where he captured his first win in his six starts this season. No one could have seen the night he had and I’m not expecting him to follow up that performance. Buffalo is averaging more Goals For and Goals Against Away with Detroit averaging more Goals For at Home. Detroit’s offense is a slight concern as they have been struggling lately and are coming off a home loss where they were shutout. These two teams have played before and the game did go Under the total at 5.5 but I think with the current matchup we see this game going over. I can see this line moving to 6.0 so I’m going to take it at 5.5 now.
I will likely add more plays as the day progresses but this is the only game I want to lock in overnight. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for all updates.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday 100% Wild Card Play of the Year System goes Early + Late TOP Level Wild Card Total Headlines along with 3 Powerful NCAAB Plays including a rare Executive Level Tier 1. NBA 5* and Soccer. Comp play below. BONUS COMP OVER the total in Bengals vs Raiders game.
The NCAAB Comp play is on USC at 11:00 eastern. The Trojans are 14-1 and 7-0 and 7-0 at home. They are ranked 4th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in offensive field goal percentage. They host an Oregon team that has won 4 straight most notably an upset win at #3 UCLA on Thursday. The Ducks though are still 1-5 ats on the road and ranked 253rd in defensive field goal percentage. In the Series the favorite has covered 10 of 12 an the host 5 of the lat 6. Look for USC to cool off the Ducks tonight. On Saturday a Massive card is up and led by the NFL Wild Card Play of the Year going early and the Late Top Level total. In hoops we have a Powerful NCAAB Card with an Executive Level TIER Headlining. Thee is another big 5* NBA and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter Jump on and cash out all day and night. For the Comp play. Go with USC. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Total for this game has been pushed up to 223.5/ 224 from it’s 221.5 open in some books and it’s understandable as we just saw the Bulls give up 138 points to the Nets on Wednesday. We know the Warriors have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA but now that Draymond Green is out the Warriors have given up 116 and 118 in their L2. Mind you that is against two of the higher scoring teams in the Grizzlies and the Bucks. Tonight they’ll face another offensive power in the Bulls who will surely bring their ‘A’ game off a loss against one of the better teams in the Warriors.
Looking at the Bulls at home off a loss they are 4-2 O/U but average a 1H total of 110. Warriors on the road off a loss are 1-4 O/U with an average 1H total of 112. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a shootout tonight, but we have the Warriors coming in on a 0-5 O/U 1H streak, 2-8 O/U L10. Warriors are also 4th in defending the 3 pt shot where we know the Bulls’ Lavine and Vucevic thrive. We just saw the Warriors struggle against two teams that are bigger and get a lot of points from in the paint. The Bulls are plenty capable of getting inside but will likely try to outshoot the Warriors at least at first, as most teams do.
The concern for the 1H under here is if the Warriors catch fire from beyond the arc as the Bulls are 22nd in the NBA defending the 3 pt shot. We have the Bulls at 5-3-2 1H O/U L10 at home so it’s not a guarantee they’ll be looking to push the pace at first. We know the Warriors would like to slow it down as they are 6-14 1H O/U on the road on the season. I like the Under as I think the Warriors know slowing it down is their best chance at a win and we see both team’s 1H average under this 114.5 number in their respective situation. The under won’t be a big play as we are seeing money come in on the over, but it’s worth a play. Best to wait as close to game time as possible as money is coming in on the over.
509/510 UN 1H Total 114.5 (-105)*
Check out my top plays on my Patreon where I am +26 units since November! All my plays are made public the next day and I do have some nice trends there on some of the analysis.
On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael breaks down 4 NBA games on Friday’s card. Then, he looks at 2 College Basketball teams he is “buying low” on and 2 teams he’s “selling high” on in the near future. Follow Michael on Twitter @FordhamGambling and find all of his free picks at https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/michaelfordhamsportsgambling-com/.
Flying from the East Coast to Vegas is good for at least one reason: plenty of time on a 5-hour flight to write a damn article and actually listen to a few podcasts for once. Lock and load, here we go! Here’s a free pick for Wildcard Weekend!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
Placed 5th in the NFL Circa Sports Million Contest (61-28-1, 68%)
Current NBA Record: 141-106 (57%), +49.52 units
49ers/Cowboys over 51 (-110), 2 units: A storied, historic rivalry starts off the Sunday slate this weekend when the 49ers take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. The Cowboys are coming off an unimpressive smashing of the Eagles, which inflated their offensive stats for the year (slow clap), but did little to change their trajectory in the playoffs. That was probably a good move by Dallas after that stinker two weeks before against Arizona. The Niners, meanwhile, earned a wild playoff berth by coming back from a 17-0 deficit last week at Sofi Stadium. Jimmy Garoppolo, who the media still loves to hyper-criticize, was excellent in the second half against the Rams. He led the Niners down the field to score two TDs in the 3rd quarter, then orchestrated an amazing final drive to seal the game-winning field goal. Jimmy G may not be consistent (who is besides Brady and Rodgers these days?), but he showed poise in a really tough spot last week against his rival. That’s not a bad thing to take into the playoffs, and it only gives the Niners’ offense that much more confidence.
The Cowboys have the premiere offense in the NFL; hopefully that’s not a surprise to anyone anymore. They rank #1 in DVOA and #1 in a bunch of offensive categories. Here’s just a few where they rank very highly:
Points per game, 1st
Yards per game, 1st
Points per play, 1st
Yards per play, 3rd
Yards per pass, 4th
Rush yards per game, 9th
Okay so, the Cowboys have a really good offense. And for what it’s worth, the 49ers have struggled to consistently perform on the defensive side of the field. It’s the reason why San Francisco went down 17-0 against the Rams. A second quarter interception didn’t help. And It wasn’t the first time the 49ers allowed other offenses to thrive. Lions- scored 33, Seahawks- 28, Colts- 30; these aren’t exactly juggernauts this season, yet they all experienced a ton of success against San Francisco’s defense.
The Niners are full of talent on both sides of the ball, but we trust their offense more. They ended the season delivering, winning their final 2 games against a team in Houston that never gives up and against their arch-enemy in LAR. No team in the NFL has more big-play potential than the 49ers. They’re 1st in yards per play (6.1) and 1st in yards per pass (8.2). They’re also top 10 in most rushing statistics. Fortunately for the Niners, Dallas allows 5.5 yards per play and has been bad against the run all season. Micah Parsons is worth the hype- he’s a difference maker and seems to make an impact on almost every play. But Kyle Shanahan is arguably the most creative coach in football; he’ll figure out ways to get around that beast. Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel, Greg Kittle, Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb- the offensive stars will be out in force in this Wildcard game. I’m betting that they’ll win much more often than they’ll lose.
If the Niners run-game can do something, look out. A play on the Niners at +3 or a moneyline wager shouldn’t be out of the question. For now, we’ll stick with the over. I don’t see how either defense can slow down the other.
Guys, gals — we’re on a 30-11 run in the NBA over the last 16 days… That’s unheard of, just tellin ya, and it’s also scary because I don’t want it to end, ha. Today is a WEIRD day in the NBA, trust me, with teams who are very small favorites against bad teams in much better spots. Buyer beware! Here are the picks:
Side note – tomorrow’s picks will come later – I’ll be in Vegas today collecting our Circa winnings and as you know, Pacific time is 3 hours back. Expect a delay.
NBA Picks:
76ers 1H -2 * (this is a good response game for Philly and Marcus Smart, an important defender for Boston, is out today. The Sixers might flub in the full game so, just a halftime bet for me.)
Bulls -4 ** (the Warriors will be depleted today and the Bulls will want a big win at home after that loss against the Nets. All Chicago for this guy.)
Kings -5 * (the Rockets defense is crumbling and their pace will only cultivate a big scoring game from Sacramento at home.)
NFL Full List Reminder:
Bengals -5.5 *
Raiders/Bengals over 49 **
Patriots +4 **
Eagles +8.5 **
Eagles ML (sprinkle, up to you what you wager, I suggest nothing big)
TIME CAPTIONED BELOW: We have a MASSIVE show for you today! Las Vegas Cris is back to discuss the NFL Playoffs and Wildcard week, and Kyle Hunter @KyleHunterPicks, with Erik Haslam @Haslametrics comes on to talk college hoops! First, Cris and Kiev discuss some of the philosophy changes when it comes to betting the playoffs compared to the regular season. Next, the guys get into each game with some thoughts and a few FREE PLAYS. Then, Kiev takes on a listener question about hedging a Cowboys 25-1 super bowl bet as well as a team that is properly priced in the futures market. Next, Kiev discusses some sharp movement and some UFC on ESPN 32 with a free play. After that, Erik Haslam and Kyle Hunter come on to discuss www.Haslametrics.com and all of the wonderful stats and information that it provides to the advanced sports bettor. Finally, the guys get into some big games for the weekend with some strong leans and plays.
0 – 52:50 – Las Vegas Cris discusses NFL
52:50 – 1:03:50 – NFL Hedging question and future
1:03:50 – 1:11:22 – Sharp Money & UFC Fight Night
1:11:22 – 2:09:18 – Erik Haslam and Kyle Hunter discuss Haslametrics.com and College Hoops!
NFL: San Francisco vs Dallas – Arizona vs LA Rams – Buffalo vs New England and more!
NCAA: Tennessee vs Kentucky – Seton Hall vs Marquette and more!
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