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NHL Preview & Picks – January 11th, 2022

By
Patrick Gates
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Apologies for the late article but what a slate of games we have tonight in the NHL. Here are my plays of the day!

A new Episode of Expected Bets For will be out tomorrow night so be on the lookout for that! I’ll have Nick Martin of the Action Network on this week to breakdown Thursdays games.

 

Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators

  • Time: 8:00 PM ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN+
  • Colorado Avalanche: 22-8-2, 3rd Central (22-8-2 Away)
  • Nashville Predators: 23-11-2, 1st Central (9-3-2 Home)
Team Opening ML Current ML Spread Total
Colorado Avalanche -163 -135 -1.5 (+165) o6.5 (-105)
Nashville Predators +125 +115 +1.5 (-190) u6.5 (-115)

 

Trends:

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado’s last 6 games.
  • Colorado are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Nashville’s last 6 games.
  • Nashville are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.

 

Preview:

Both of these teams enter this matchup in great form. Nashville has lost only two games since the start of December while Colorado hasn’t dropped a game since the break.

This is a crucial game for both teams with Nashville holding a 2 point division lead over the Avalanche. However, Colorado does have 4 games in hand so even with a loss, Colorado can still recover.

These teams have played once before where Colorado lost 5-2 to Nashville. The Av’s were listed at -165 on the moneyline with the Total being set at 6.0. Nashville barely won the Expected Goal battle 2.91-2.90. The difference in that game was goaltending. Pavel Francouz had a -1.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) while Jusse Saros had a +0.9 GSAx.

Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanches starting lineup will look a little different tonight as they’re without one of top guys in Gabriel Landeskog. Colorado has the best Goals For Above Expected in the League with a +19.04 and is averaging the most Goals For Per 60 with a 3.41. Since the return, the Av’s have scored 4 or more goals in every game. One player to watch tonight is Nazem Kadri who looks to extend his point streak tonight to 13 games. He’s currently listed at -200 on DraftKings to record over 0.5 points.

In terms of defense, Colorado is averaging 2.6 Goals Against Per 60 which does rank near the bottom of the league. Their Penalty Kill has also been an issue for them this year ranking 28th. Darcy Kuemper looks to get the start tonight but hasn’t been confirmed yet. He hasn’t been great on the year with a -1.1 GSAx through 23 games payed.

Nashville Predators

The Predators had a slow start after the break dropping games to Washington and Columbus. However, the have rebounded nicely winning their last four.

Nashville doesn’t have an explosive offense quite like Colorado but they have looked better as of late. During this four game stretch, they have scored 6-3-4-4 in those games. On the season they have a 2.41 Goals For Per 60 with a +0.83 Goals For Above Expected. The Pred’s don’t generate a lot of scoring opportunities but have been able to capitalize on the ones they do create. Like the Av’s, Nashville will also be without one of their top forwards as Filip Forsberg remains in COVID protocols. One player prop to look at is Mikael Grandlund to record an assist. He has an assist in his last three games, and the last 6 of 8. Draftkings currently has the line set at -105 for Over 0.5 assists.

On defense, Nashville ranks much better with an average of 2.12 Goals Against Per 60. They’ve done a great job of limiting opponents shots on net which has benefitted Juuse Saros substantially. While Nashville does have a strong Penalty Kill, they’ll have their work cut out for them. They’re one of the least disciplined teams in the NHL and giving up Power Play’s to Colorado is not a great strategy.

Jusse Saros is expected to get the start in net for Nashville. He’s been sensational all season with a +16.6 GSAx through 29 games played.

Picks:

  • COL/ NSH OVER 6.5 (-105)
    • As previously mentioned the line has moved, so I’ll give this out pick out based off the current line. Nashville has a great defense and goalie but as we’ve seen in previous games, Colorado can generate offense against any team. Nashville’s offense has been good as of late with a Colorado defense that’s known to give up a lot of chances.

 

Other Plays for Tonight:

  • PITTSBURGH PENGUINS 60 MINUTE LINE (-115)

 

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.

January 11th CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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West Virginia Mountaineers guard Sean McNeil (22) on Friday.

I finished the College Football season with 2 premium winners last night(Georgia -2.5 for 1.5u and the 1H Under for 1u). Overall, I hit at a 55% clip and netted +27.35u on the season. Now, it’s time to dive head first into CBB and NBA. Tonight, I’m rolling with 3 CBB plays(2 premium, 1 free). If you’re interesting in becoming a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CBB(1u): West Virginia -2.5(-110) vs Oklahoma State–8 PM CT

While West Virginia is 12-2 on the season, they’ve had a somewhat unimpressive start in conference play. They were blown out at Texas in the conference opener and only snuck by lowly Kansas State with a 3 point win this past Saturday. That said, this program has dealt with covid issues and appears to be nearing full strength. Neither of these teams have found a rhythm offensively, but that’s especially true for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys shoot less than 30% from 3 and turn the ball over 15.5 times per game; KenPom has this offense ranked #128 in the country. This sets up horribly matching up against the consistent “Press Virginia” defense that has kept Bob Huggins in this sport for so long. With this being the second straight home game for West Virginia, I think we’ll see them settle in and play a clean brand of basketball tonight. Getting this at less than 3, I really like the Mountaineers in this spot. If your book has this number at 3, I’d still endorse it at that number. 

January 11th CBB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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*CBB(1u): South Carolina/Tennessee UNDER 142(-110)–5:30 PM CT

Tennessee is coming off a tough road loss at LSU in which the Tiger home court advantage was monumental. While they’re back at home tonight, I think it’s wrong to assume they’ll escape this game without a sweat. While the Vols have one of the best defenses in the country, they leave a lot to be desired on the offensive end of the floor. I think their offensive ratings will continue to plummet as they get deeper into their conference schedule and get closer to what they were last year(which was not great). South Carolina has a top 40 defense according to KenPom which has led them to a surprisingly good 10-4 record to this point. That said, the Gamecock offense is really poor, if not the worst in the SEC. Given Tennessee’s defensive prowess, I don’t think the Vols should have much trouble getting stops tonight. This total is considerably too high for my liking; I think this one stays UNDER the posted total. 

*CBB(1u): Oklahoma State/West Virginia UNDER 135.5(-110)–8 PM CT

Oklahoma State is coming off a massive win against Texas but will enter a tough road environment in Morgantown tonight. The Cowboys play really good defense(12th in the country according to KenPom), but this is a really bad offense. With Cade Cunningham off to the NBA, this team has struggled to establish an identity offensively this season, which has directly led to a measly 8-5 record. West Virginia is extremely reliable defensively and will be prepared with Bob Huggins at the helm. However, this is a Mountaineer squad that, to a lesser degree, is also having issues establishing any rhythm offensively. They’ve dealt with COVID issues and, in my opinion, are still a few games away from clicking on that end of the floor. This total might be too low for your liking, but I expect this to be a classic Big12, first-to-60 wins type of game. I have no hesitation playing this one UNDER the posted total. 

Free NBA Pick: Suns at Raptors – Jan 11, 2022

By
Chris R. Farley
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What’s up, good people! It’s been one HELL of a ride the past few weeks, and you’ll hear this a lot from me, but thank you SO much for your unparalleled support throughout the final weeks of the NFL Circa Contest. A top 5 finish is a dream come true and I couldn’t be MORE pumped! Now it’s back to the grind– there’s no off time from NBA betting! Onto today’s free pick on the surging Raptors!

For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
– NBA Premiums Picks: 133-104 (56%), +39.67 units
– 5th place finish in the NFL Circa Contest (61-28-1, 68% win rate)

Raptors +4.5 (-110), 2 units: You might have heard me say this on the BetUS NBA show (which you should absolutely check out, I’m on there 4x a week), but I BELIEVE in the Toronto Raptors. The team with the best record in the NBA, the Phoenix Suns, travel to Toronto on Tuesday night in what should be a great game. The line tells you everything here, and it’s starting to move in the Raptors’ favor.

The Raptors have looked like one of the best teams in the NBA over the last 2 weeks. While we have to be cautious to not get ahead of ourselves about Toronto’s greatness, it isn’t fake news. The Raptors are finally healthy and they have a recipe that works. Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby have created a special starting unit for Canada’s team. The Raptors are FULL of 6’8″, long-armed forwards that are aggressive at the rim and very capable shooting from anywhere on the hardwood. They’re one of the best rebounding teams in the association because of it, and they’re one of the best defenses against high-percentage shots. Freddie VanFleet has stepped up big-time in Kyle Lowry’s absence, and Gary Trent Jr. has been very efficient at the #2 guard position.

The Suns match up well against almost anybody, but this isn’t a great spot for them. Playing in Toronto is hard enough, especially getting over the border with stricter COVID protocols, and Scotiabank Arena has gone up in my home-court-power-ratings without fans. There’s a cold, cerebral element to that arena that seems to cultivate the Raptors’ success. A team predicated on swarming defense and rim control, Siakam, Anunoby, VanFleet and others have created an intimidating environment on their home floor. The Suns start a brutal 5 game road stretch over the next week.

Win or lose, the value is with Toronto and it’s not a bet I can pass up. This is a really good Raptors team – trust the line movement.

Premiums, 1.11

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

Mornin, good people! Shitty day in betting Monday but I’m gonna give myself a pass with the extenuating circumstances. Onto the next!

NBA Picks:
  • Grizzlies +2.5 **
  • Grizzlies moneyline (should be around +110) *
  • Raptors +4.5 **
Early NFL Bets I Placed (more to come after the Wednesday pod):
  • Patriots +4 **
  • 49ers win *

Podcast 3 – 22 – NFL Week 18 Recap – NFL Wildcard Weekend Play – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

We have a quick show for you today!   Kiev goes solo to recap a fantastic weekend of football!   First, Kiev talks about Chris Farley and Steve Norman of The OddsBreakers taking 5th place in the Circa Sports Millions for a $114,000.00 payout!  Next, Kiev talks about some NFL and a little college football national championship.  Finally, Kiev gives out a free NFL wildcard weekend play!   Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers

Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.

If you want a great education and credentials in the world of sports investing, please visit https://sportswageringu.com/ and use the promo-code Odds21 for 10% off the price!  

#Sportsbetting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAA #NBA #NHL #NFL #UFC #Horseracing

If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves!  Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev.  We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups.   You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.

Premiums 1.10

By
Chris R. Farley
-

 

As you can imagine, I am V hungover lol. Here are today’s picks:

  • Bucks -3 **
  • Knicks/Spurs over 213 *
  • Bama **

January 10th CBB Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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In addition to this free play, I have 2 premium plays for tonight’s CFB National Championship game. I might release one of those on Twitter this afternoon; be sure to be following @FordhamGambling. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*CBB(1u): Oregon/Oregon State 1H UNDER 65.5(-110)–9 PM CT

Both of these teams have seen pretty steep breaks in their schedule; Oregon State last played on December 30th and have had 3 straight games postponed, while Oregon last played on January 1st and have had 2 straight games postponed. Oregon has played just twice since December 20th, and when they have been on the floor, the Ducks(8-6) have looked nothing like last year’s team. Then again, Oregon State is just 3-10 on the season after making the Elite 8 last year. Rather than take a stab at a side in this rivalry game, I feel much better taking a look at this 1H Under. Each of these teams run at a very slow pace(Oregon 305th, Oregon State 203rd) and should be rusty offensively given the amount of time each has had off. Oregon is considerably better offensively, but I do think the fact that this is a road rivalry game will play a big factor(especially in the 1st Half). Expect to see a pretty sloppy showing from both sides early in this game and for the 1H Under to come through.

January 10th CFB Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
-

*CFB(1.5u): Georgia -2.5(-120) vs Alabama–Monday 7 PM CT

Alabama might be the #1 ranked team in the CFP, but Georgia was the better team virtually all season. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams; this version of the Crimson Tide squeaked by with 1 possession wins against 6-6 Auburn, 6-6 LSU, and 6-6 Florida. Of course, Alabama did beat this Georgia team handily in the SEC Championship game. However, I do not think the Tide offense will have that same success this second time around. 

Alabama lost WR John Metchie to a torn ACL in that SEC title game; in turn, we saw Alabama’s passing game get somewhat bottled up against Cincinnati. Bryce Young went just 17/28 through the air and threw for 181 yards, or 6.5 yards/attempt. Jameson Williams was keyed on by Cincinnati’s DB’s(7 catches, only 62 yards), and I’d expect a similar game plan from Georgia in this one, especially considering how much Williams torched them a month ago. Alabama’s running backs had a ton of success against Cincinnati, but this not a Tide RB crew I’m very high on. Lead back Brian Robinson Jr averaged less than 5 YPC during the regular season and was bottled up rather consistently later in the season. There is obviously talent behind Robinson, but I don’t think we’ll see any of those guys play a huge role in this one. I could not be higher on Georgia’s defense even with the result of these teams’ first matchup in mind. This is a unit that allowed less than 10 PPG this season and recorded 5 shutouts in the process. Coming off that fluky performance against Alabama, the ‘Dogs completed dominated Michigan’s offense, sacking Cade McNamara 4 times, forcing 2 turnovers, and holding the Michigan RB’s(which are better than Alabama’s) to right at 4 YPC. 

We can all acknowledge how good this Georgia defense is, but I think their offense is way better than advertised. QB Stetson Bennett is obviously not as talented as Bryce Young, but he actually had a higher QBR than the Heisman Trophy winner did this season. Bennett is much more of a game manager than Young, but he excelled in that role this season, throwing for over 10 yards/attempt this season. He reached that 10 Y/A mark in the Michigan game and was not sacked once despite facing a lethal Michigan pass rush. Georgia is VERY deep at RB, with their top 3 backs all averaging over 5 YPC this season. This unit struggled for Georgia a bit against Bama in the first go round, but I’d expect a much better performance this go round. As I mentioned, Georgia is excellent up front and is set up better than any team in the country to go against this Alabama front 7. 

Alabama’s defense completely dominated Cincinnati; Desmond Ridder was sacked 6 times. This unit got much more consistent as the season closed, but they are somewhat leaky in their secondary. They got absolutely torched by A&M QB Zach Calzada, who was unable to repeat that performance throughout the rest of the season. Arkansas also threw the ball at will on this Tide secondary. While Desmond Ridder threw for just 4.5 Y/A, I’d attribute that mostly to Alabama winning up front and disrupting Ridder’s timing. Stetson Bennett finished with 340 yards through the air in the SEC title game; that’s not his game, but he did prove he could be proficient through the air on this Tide defense.

I’ve talked to many people about this game, and the common sentiment is that Nick Saban just has Kirby Smart’s number. I don’t have a rebuttal for that. However, from a pure football stampoint, I have no doubt that Georgia is the better team. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams, while this is Georgia’s best team in 4 decades. At less than a field goal, I like Georgia to FINALLY get over the hump and win their first national championship since 1980. 

*CFB(1u): Alabama/Georgia 1H UNDER 26(-110)–7 PM CT

See analysis for this game above. 

College Football National Championship – Georgia vs Alabama

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Georgia vs Alabama +2.5 O/U 52

Here we are and these are the top 2 teams on my power ratings.   As it should be right?  Well let’s dive into it then.  Now the biggest data point that we have from this game is Alabama blowing out Georgia in the SEC Championship.   What we saw that game was a very uncharacteristic Georgia defense that allowed 536 yards, 421 passing and 115 rushing when they have only allowed over 250 yards once or maybe twice at most this whole year due to garbage time.  One thing that I will say is that Georgia hasn’t faced a defense as good as Alabama’s since game one vs Clemson and that is part of the reason that they got themselves into some trouble throwing interceptions and only being 3/12 on 3rd down.    Basically, what happened is that Bryce young took this game over and beat them passing the ball.   Getting away from that game, a key thing that Georgia did very well vs Michigan was to stop the big plays.   Michigan was 0/3 on 4th down and that is where Alabama can also be dangerous.   Now, Georgia by the numbers is really a 6-7 point spread because Georgia has done equally well on offensive efficiency at 11.8 yards per point to Alabama’s 12.2 but Georgia has the elite defense at a massive 27.4 opponent yards per point to Alabama’s 15.5.  Both teams are top 4 in EPA margin with Georgia at number 1 and Alabama at 4.   It is really the scheming, the planning, the quarterback, and most of all, the coaching that took the Crimson tide over the top in the SEC Championship.   This is why the spread is very close to the 3.   Now when Alabama played Cincinnati, they did not need much of a passing game being that they pretty much ran all over them with Brian Robinson himself over 200 yards, but that will not happen vs Georgia and will Alabama be able to throw all over them again without John Mechie?   JaCorey Brooks and Slade Bolden were the ones to stand out vs Cincinnati but I have to think that Dan Lanning will understand that it’s next man up and will do everything in his power to slow down Bryce young.   I think that I will make a very small play on Georgia here to finally get over the hump but the prop market is where I will feast in this game.

Georgia -2.5 – 2 stars

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