Monday card has a 20-0 National Championship system play along with a 5* NCAAB Blowout Side and the 2X System NBA Game of the Week. NBA Totals Play below.
The NBA Totals Play for Monday is on the Under 222 in the Utah at Detroit game at 7:10 eastern. The game applies to a 7-0 totals system that plays under for road favorites of 10 or more that are off a road favored loss, vs an opponent off a home win. The Jazz are 6 of 7 under on the road vs a losing home team and the Pistons are 8 of 11 under vs winning teams and are ranked 29th on offense. In the series these two have gone under in 10 of 13. Look for the game to go under. On Monday the 20-0 National Championship game headlines and CFB is on 15-5 run. In hoops we have the NBA Game of the Week and a 5* NCAAB Blowout system. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we start the week fast. For the NBA Comp play. Go under the total in the Utah at Detroit game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
*CFB(1.5u): Georgia -2.5(-120) vs Alabama–Monday 7 PM CT
Alabama might be the #1 ranked team in the CFP, but Georgia was the better team virtually all season. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams; this version of the Crimson Tide squeaked by with 1 possession wins against 6-6 Auburn, 6-6 LSU, and 6-6 Florida. Of course, Alabama did beat this Georgia team handily in the SEC Championship game. However, I do not think the Tide offense will have that same success this second time around.
Alabama lost WR John Metchie to a torn ACL in that SEC title game; in turn, we saw Alabama’s passing game get somewhat bottled up against Cincinnati. Bryce Young went just 17/28 through the air and threw for 181 yards, or 6.5 yards/attempt. Jameson Williams was keyed on by Cincinnati’s DB’s(7 catches, only 62 yards), and I’d expect a similar game plan from Georgia in this one, especially considering how much Williams torched them a month ago. Alabama’s running backs had a ton of success against Cincinnati, but this not a Tide RB crew I’m very high on. Lead back Brian Robinson Jr averaged less than 5 YPC during the regular season and was bottled up rather consistently later in the season. There is obviously talent behind Robinson, but I don’t think we’ll see any of those guys play a huge role in this one. I could not be higher on Georgia’s defense even with the result of these teams’ first matchup in mind. This is a unit that allowed less than 10 PPG this season and recorded 5 shutouts in the process. Coming off that fluky performance against Alabama, the ‘Dogs completed dominated Michigan’s offense, sacking Cade McNamara 4 times, forcing 2 turnovers, and holding the Michigan RB’s(which are better than Alabama’s) to right at 4 YPC.
We can all acknowledge how good this Georgia defense is, but I think their offense is way better than advertised. QB Stetson Bennett is obviously not as talented as Bryce Young, but he actually had a higher QBR than the Heisman Trophy winner did this season. Bennett is much more of a game manager than Young, but he excelled in that role this season, throwing for over 10 yards/attempt this season. He reached that 10 Y/A mark in the Michigan game and was not sacked once despite facing a lethal Michigan pass rush. Georgia is VERY deep at RB, with their top 3 backs all averaging over 5 YPC this season. This unit struggled for Georgia a bit against Bama in the first go round, but I’d expect a much better performance this go round. As I mentioned, Georgia is excellent up front and is set up better than any team in the country to go against this Alabama front 7.
Alabama’s defense completely dominated Cincinnati; Desmond Ridder was sacked 6 times. This unit got much more consistent as the season closed, but they are somewhat leaky in their secondary. They got absolutely torched by A&M QB Zach Calzada, who was unable to repeat that performance throughout the rest of the season. Arkansas also threw the ball at will on this Tide secondary. While Desmond Ridder threw for just 4.5 Y/A, I’d attribute that mostly to Alabama winning up front and disrupting Ridder’s timing. Stetson Bennett finished with 340 yards through the air in the SEC title game; that’s not his game, but he did prove he could be proficient through the air on this Tide defense.
I’ve talked to many people about this game, and the common sentiment is that Nick Saban just has Kirby Smart’s number. I don’t have a rebuttal for that. However, from a pure football stampoint, I have no doubt that Georgia is the better team. This is not one of Nick Saban’s better teams, while this is Georgia’s best team in 4 decades. At less than a field goal, I like Georgia to FINALLY get over the hump and win their first national championship since 1980.
It’s hard to ignore how well the Raptors are playing right now. Toronto has won 5 straight games with an average margin of victory of nearly 14 PPG. Their last 2 wins have come against the Bucks and Jazz, so the lowly Pelicans shouldn’t be much of a threat tonight. New Orleans(14-25) last played on Thursday night when they beat a Curry-less Warriors squad, but I actually like playing against bad teams who are coming off a big win. A team like New Orleans doesn’t know how to handle winning, and when you combine that with the fact they have to enter a new country to play this one-off road game, I’m expecting a flat performance from this Pelicans squad. I see no reason why the Raptors will slow down tonight; I like Toronto by double-digits in this one.
*NBA(1.5u): Lakers -3.5(-110) vs Grizzlies–8:40 PM CT
The Grizzlies beat the Lakers twice in the month of December, with both of those wins coming in Memphis. Now, this sets up as a double revenge spot for LeBron and the Lakers playing back at home against a Grizzlies team that is playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. This is also the Grizzlies’ 4th road game in their past 5 games before they travel back home to play the Warriors on Tuesday night. Since that Christmas Day loss to Brooklyn, the Lakers have won 5 of 6 and come into this game on a 4 game winning streak. This will be the last of a 5 game homestand that has stretched 10 days, giving the Lakers the major rest and travel advantage entering this matchup. After being beaten by this Grizzlies team twice fairly recently, I think the narrative changes in a major way tonight. Lakers win this one handily.
SANTA CLARA, CA - JANUARY 11: Head Coach Kyle Shanahan of the San Francisco 49ers addresses the team in the locker room prior to the game against the Minnesota Vikings at Levi's Stadium on January 11, 2020 in Santa Clara, California. The 49ers defeated the Vikings 27-10. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)
San Francisco 49ers vs LA Rams -4 O/U 45.5
This might be the most important game for seeing all weekend and both teams will be motivated. The 49ers are in a win and get in scenario and all signs point to Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting quarterback. Jimmy has been great this year quietly ranking 4th in composite EPA + CPOE. He also finally has a pretty healthy team to play with. Even with all of the 49ers woes, they are still tied with the rams at .9 net yards perp play. Deebo Samuel has been massive for this team being both a rusher and a receiver. Now the Rams are certainly a top 5 team and I actually have them ranked 5th in my power ratings, but they are not that much higher than 49ers. The Rams rank number 8 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play this year. The 49ers rank 7th and 13th respectively. From a matchup perspective, the 49ers are a little weaker against the pass but that is where the QB comes in. Matt Stafford doesn’t seem to do great in big games and this is his biggest game of the season so far. Over the last 5 matchups, the 49ers won them all and covered 4 of them. These coaches know each other being that they worked together back in their old Redskin Days. As a matter of fact, Sean McVeigh was under Kyle Shanahan back then as a tight ends coach making Kyle the big brother here. The Rams are in the playoffs already while fighting to win the division. The 49ers need to win to get in assuming the Saints win and are fighting for their lives. Would you rather have a dog fighting for a bone or fighting to see tomorrow? I’ll take the 49ers here.
San Francisco +4 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Bonus Play: Houston +10.5 – 2 stars – The Texans haven’t quit all season and they believe that they can beat this team again. Playing spoiler is a very underrated motivational spot that is overlooked the last week of the NFL Season. My power ratings have this game Tenn -8.75.
Refuse to lose Teaser: Dallas to -1 with the Raiders to +8.5 – 3 stars (if you didn’t get Dallas from my podcast then put in the Patriots in down to Pickem)
No official NBA plays today, not a great slate and a bunch of questionable tags, but here are my leans. I’m entirely focused on the NFL today… for obvious reasons!
LET’S GO, Team!
NBA Leans:
Spurs +11
Pelicans/Raptors over 222
Cavs +9.5
Grizz/Lakers over 226
In case you never got them, here are my full NFL Plays:
Sunday NFL Quad pack has the NFL Last Home Game Play Of the Year 6-2 last 8 years along with an Early 6*, an Executive Level TIER 1 and the Double Perfect Sunday nighter on NBC. In Hoops we have a Huge Revenge Play in the NBA + NCAAB RPI Scale system. NFL Comp Play below.
The NFL Comp play is on Atlanta plus the points at 4:25 eastern. The Falcons fit a powerful late season system that is cashing 84% long term for Divisional home dogs of 6 or less that were large road dogs last week, vs an opponent off a win. The Falcons will be motivated in their final home game and they have covered 5 of 5 after allowing 150 or less passing and 5 of 7 covers off a loss. The Saints have failed to cover 7 of 8 off a spread win. Look form the Falcons to get the cover. On Sunday a Powerful cars is up led by the Last home game Perfect System side along with a TIER 1, an Early 6* system side and a solid Sunday night System play. In Hoops a Huge NBA + NCAAB RPI Scale System Plays headline. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on as we end the regular Season with a big day. For the NFL Comp play. Go with the Falcons plus the points. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Tonight BYU comes into their second home game ever in WCC action tonight against a tough St. Mary’s team who will be coming into what should be a hostile Saturday night in Utah. We’re seeing some money come in for the over with the total at 132.5 in some books. I still like the Under in this one for a one unit play.
Looking at the trends we have a BYU that leans to the over at 8-6 O/U (136th in pace) and a St. Mary’s team that is 5-9 O/U on the season (311th in pace). BYU has a surprisingly good rank of 22nd in defensive FG conv. % and St. Mary’s is 76th, meaning opponents aren’t converting shots. St. Mary’s (85th in steals) might score some off of turnovers, but BYU shouldn’t as they are #302 in that category. The Gaels don’t get to the foul line often as they are 294th in free throw rate, and BYU could as they are 30th. But St. Mary’s doesn’t foul a whole lot as they are 16th in defensive free throw rate.
We’ve seen BYU speed up some of their opponents but more often we see this team catering to the pace of their opponent. This Under could go the other way if BYU comes out hot from the 3, and they’re 66th in 3 pt%. However, St. Mary’s defense is aggressive enough I think they can slow them down. Additionally, BYU hasn’t been great at home thus far and St. Mary’s hasn’t looked that good on the road. Give me the under!
Thank you to everyone for your support all year! This is obviously one of the bigger weekends of our sports betting life, since Steve and I stand at 12th in the Circa Sports Million with a chance to win some serious money after Sunday. LETS. GO!
I want to start off by saying thank you to everyone who listened to my new Podcast, Expected Bets For. If you haven’t given it a listen yet, be sure to check it out here.
We went 2-2 in the first episode but have a few guests lined up for the next episode that will offer even more insight in the NHL market.
Now, let’s look at tonight’s slate.
New Jersey Devils @ Columbus Blue Jackets
These two teams played two days ago and will face off again tonight. Mostly everyone was on the Over 6.5 and the final score ended up being 3-1. The total again is listed at 6.5 and based on all the statistics in the last game, I think this game goes over. Columbus averages almost a goal more at home while New Jersey averages 4.0 Goals Against Away compared to 2.84 at home.
Pick:
NJD/ CBJ OVER 6.5 (-120)*
Chicago Blackhawks @ Vegas Golden Knights
Chicago has been struggling as of late dropping their last 6 games. Marc-Andre Fleury will face off against his former team who looks to be a Stanley Cup contender. Fleury hasn’t been great lately allowing 5-4-3-4 goals in his last four starts. The Vegas Golden Knights offense is significantly better than Chicago’s defense. Chicago’s offense doesn’t rank great in terms of Goals For but, has been better in their last two and should be able to generate a few chances in this matchup.
Pick:
CHI/ VGS OVER 6.0 (-105)*
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
