January 8th NBA Premium Play

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January 8, 2022

*NBA(1u): Jazz -3.5(-110) @ Pacers–6:10 PM CT

The Jazz are short favorites after some uncertainty on their roster outlook, but as I expected, Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic are both IN for this game. They didn’t play last night in Toronto, likely because they didn’t want to risk having to adhere to Canada’s quarantine rules if one of those guys were to test positive. Each of those guys played just a few nights ago in a win in Denver, so I wouldn’t expect any rust for either one of them tonight. Their status was the only thing I was waiting on because this Pacers team is a straight fade for me right now. Indiana has lost 6 straight games and 7 of their last 8; since December 10th, their only 2 wins have come against the Rockets and Pistons. Malcolm Brogdon should be back tonight, but he won’t be at his sharpest after missing nearly 3 weeks with an Achilles injury. Aside from that, Domantas Sabonis is basically a one man show out there with Myles Turner often playing himself out of games(just 4 rebounds against the Nets last time out). I’d group the Pacers right along with the Blazers as teams that I’m looking to play against nearly every game right now; with Mitchell and Bogdanovic fresh after skipping last night’s game, I think the Jazz take care of business tonight.

NFL Week 18 Free Plays

By

Steve Norman

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January 8, 2022

This may be my most anxiety ridden sports handicapping week for me to date. A lot is on the line for Chris (@farleybets) and I (@snormsnorm) in our Circa contest, looking to make a run at the top 10! It has been a grind this week choosing 5 games we really liked. We will be heading to Atlantic City to watch this final week and win or lose, it was an awesome ride!

NFL Record through week 17: 139-100 +38.48 Units

Hou +10 (-105)

Tennessee are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against Houston.

Houston gives titans trouble
Davis mills numbers at home are superior to that on the road 9 tds to 1 int and vs 4 tds and 9 ints on the road
This Houston team has proven to be feisty and able to move the ball…. Brandin Cooks has been an absolute monster this year.
I think this line is simply too high.

Min -5.5 (-110)

Cousins will be back and will start for the Vikings… which I absolutely love there is no pressure on kirk what- so-ever….this is when we get a really good kirk
It will (most-likely) be Mike Zimmer’s last game as HC and could be a rallying type of game for the Vikings to put on a show and be that potent high scoring offense we know they are capable of
With news of Fields on Covid list and unlikely he has time to test out of protocols now puts Dalton as a starter
Specifically speaking Bears got their good win last week….rolling the Giants….Vikings despite their record are a better team, despite their last 6 games are 2-4 ATS…. I like them to go out with a bang in this spot
Vikings roll here with Kirk having a stress free 300+ type of day slinging the ball all over the field

Mia +6 (-105)

We all know the NE Narrative traveling to Miami and their struggles

New England are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.

Have a team in Mia who got absolutely blown out last week vs a team in NE who destroyed Jax…..looking for a bounce back for Mia and some regression from NE
We know Miami is not afraid to stack the box and say beat us with your arm (Saw that in primetime against the Ravens)
That could just be enough of a recipe to throw Mac Jones off a little bit
Miami will absolutely bring the house, This is Miami’s super bowl at home…. We saw Mac Jones laughing giggling having an absolute blast last week
I think he gets hit in the mouth this week has some regression and refocuses for the playoffs
Miami +6

Laying the Points – Week 18 NFL ATS Breakdown

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 8, 2022

Austin Ekeler with the juke against the Raiders defense.

We made it, ladies and gentlemen! It’s the final week of the NFL season and therefore, the final week of the Circa Millions Contest for me and Steve. We sit pretty at 12th overall and this week is inevitably the toughest of the year. Send us any good vibes you have! Here’s our breakdown of NFL Week 18 on the podcast:

NFL Circa Record: 57-27-1 (67%)

College Basketball 1/8/22 Free Play – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

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January 8, 2022

Iowa State vs Oklahoma -6.5 O/U 128.5

I am not sure what drove this line up from -5 to -6.5 on the side of Oklahoma. I know that they have a great coach in Porter Moser but it is his first year and Oklahoma hasn’t done a ton, as of yet anyway. The Sooner’s best win is against number 33 on Kenpom Florida and they have losses against a bad Butler team and Utah State. Oklahoma shoots very well at 58% effective FG percentage which is number 2 in the nation, but Iowa State has the 9th best defense allowing only 42.9% effective FG%. Oklahoma also turns the ball over a ton ranking 294th in the nation at 20.9% while Iowa State is a ball hocking defense that ranks number 7 in forcing turnovers at an amazing 26.5% of possessions. Lastly, Iowa State has some great performances away from home against Xavier, Creighton, and Memphis. This is too many points here. Take the dog.

Iowa State +6.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle ML

Another NBA Sweep, Onto the Weekend!

By

Chris R. Farley

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January 8, 2022

Hoping everyone invested well in last night’s picks – I guess they all should have been 2 units plus but easy to say after the fact. Either way, we got yet another NBA sweep and that brings us to 22-7 in the NBA premiums the last 10 days, and over 40 units on the season! Those are things to celebrate! Unfortunately today’s NBA slate is really ugly and has very limited value.

I’ll wait to give out my full NFL Picks until later today, when all the latest news comes out.

Disclaimer: I’ll probably only have leans tomorrow for NBA picks – leaving early to watch NFL all day and obviously I’ll be entirely focused on CIrca. Thank you for understanding.

Today’s lone NBA Pick: Pistons -2 *

Executing The Edge Podcast 7 with Kiev O’Neil – CFB National Championship, College Basketball and more!

By

Nick Hub

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January 8, 2022

In this week’s Executing the Edge podcast, Nick:

– Recaps the previous week plays

– Breaks down the CFB National Championship and some College Basketball with Special Guest Kiev O’Neil (@obkiev, @theoddsbreakers)

Get all of my plays through the Odds Breakers with my Exclusive CBB Subscription HERE

#Sportsbetting #sportsinvesting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAAF #CBB #CFB #MLB #NCAAB #ExecutingTheEdge

Rob Vinciletti: Saturday NCAAB Pick and Preview

By

Rob Vinciletti

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January 7, 2022

Saturday Card has Both NFL Games and one is the AFC Total of the Month, the Other a Perfect System side. In hoops we have a powerful NCAAB Card with an Executive Level TIER and a Platinum Supreme move. NCAAB Totals Play below.

The NCAAB Totals play is on the Under 127 in The Southern Illinois at Valparaiso game at 7:00 eastern. This one should be lower scoring as Southern Illinois has the 22nd ranked defense and the 309th ranked offense. The Salukis are on a a run of 20 of 28 going under the total as well as 4 o 5 on the road and 5 of 7 vs a wining team. Valparaiso has gone under in 4 straight vs a winning team. Look for a lower scoring game here that Stays under. Both TOP Level NFL Plays are up along with NCAAB System plays with a BIG TIER 1 Headlining, the FCS Championship and NBA. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now and cash out all day and night. For the NCAAB Comp play. Go under 127 Southern Illinois and Valparaiso. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

NFL Week 18: Carolina at Tampa Bay

By

Alan Cashman

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January 7, 2022

Subscribe to receive ALL of my Plays here at The OddsBreakers https://theoddsbreakers.com/alan-cashman/

We have to be careful betting the NFL in Wk 18.

The most interesting scenario is in the NFC to me. Green Bay has clinched home field. But there are teams still vying for that #2 seed. Tampa is one of those teams.

The Bucs are -8 hosting the Panthers.

The Bucs need to win and they need the Rams to lose as I understand the situation for Tampa to get the #2 seed. The Rams play at the same time so Tampa will likely play starters. They won’t get the luxury of sitting back and knowing the Rams outcome prior to kickoff.

Tampa won this match up in Carolina 32-6 just 2 weeks ago.

As a Buc, Brady has beaten Carolina by 14 or more in all 3 meetings. Carolina has no offense, -11 in turnover margin this season

Tampa had a weak showing last week until late vs the Jets. I think they will come out strong early in this one.

The Play here is probably Tampa -4.5 First Half. I may take the -8 full game on Sunday as well but I am going to wait and gather all of the information on game day.

College Football Championship Pick: Georgia vs Alabama

By

Alan Cashman

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January 7, 2022

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Georgia vs Alabama
When: 8:00 PM ET, Monday, January 10, 2022
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana

PICK: Alabama +3 1 unit

I think it is clear that this season was about Alabama, Georgia and then everyone else were on a level below those 2 teams. An uneventful CFB Playoff.

Bama has beaten Georgia 7 straight times including 41-24 in this year’s SEC Championship game.

Georgia was -2 in turnover margin for the game. I feel the only test Georgia really faced was against Bama. The SEC was fairly weak as far as who Georgia had to play this year.

Georgia has a slight edge in numbers that I like to look at such as YPC on offense and defense and opponent’s completion % but the best QB Georgia faced before playing Bama the first time was probably Hooker in Tennessee.

First Meeting
Georgia was 3 for 12 on 3rd in the first meeting with Bama
Bama went 7 for 14 on 3rd

Georgia went for less than 7 yards per pass
Bama threw for 9.6 yards per pass

Bama held Georgia to 3.6 ypc, the lowest ypc for Georgia all season.

Let’s go back to the turnover margin

I went back 12 seasons

Out of the last 12 CFB Champions, 11 of those championship teams finished the season with a turnover margin of +5 or better.

10 of those teams finished with a turnover margin of +7 or better.

In 2016, Clemson finished the season at -1 in turnovers, but entered the championship game at +1. Clemson trailed Alabama 24-6 in the 3rd quarter of that game before that great Clemson comeback.

A team as good as Georgia sits currently at EVEN in turnover margin for the season. Given the schedule they played, that really surprised me.

Alabama sits at +10

Bama has a Heisman QB, a championship winning coach. Bama already beat Georgia convincingly just over a month ago.

Georgia 0-4 ATS following an ATS win
Alabama 5-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog

I have to take Bama +3 here

Free Pick Friday – Remember The Titans!

By

Shawn Knoche

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January 7, 2022

Free Pick Friday! – All my plays are Free tonight.

College Basketball has been difficult to handicap the last few weeks. COVID layoffs, teams missing players and the usual holiday ups and downs have really made it hard. I am currently sitting at 65-68-3 on the year. 11 of those losses are ML sprinkles. We finally went positive however in dollars for the first time all year this week and are now 5.05 Units to the good.

Short and early slate tonight in CBB and the game I am focusing in on is Detroit vs UW-Milwaukee. It’s on ESPN2 so a prime game to watch as well.

UW-M started off the year 3-9, but has bounced back to win their last two Horizon league games. They were without their 5 star shooting guard recruit Patrick Baldwin Jr. who is playing for his father for parts or all of at least 5 games before he returned on Wednesday in a victory vs UW- Green Bay. He re-injured himself during that game and his status is still in doubt for tonight. They have been good in the books winning 6 of last 7 against the spread. That being said they have really struggled offensively sitting at 258 in AdjO and are turning the ball over on almost 20% of their possessions.

The Titans of Detroit have been on COVID pause since Dec 19th. They dropped their first 6 contests, but has since won 4 out of 5. They are also riding a 9 game home winning streak dating back to last season. Offense has been their strength as they are currently 123 in AdjO. They are stuggling defensively at #305 in AdjD. Antoine Davis has been a huge asset for them averaging 22.2 ppg.

Both teams play a slower tempo checking in at 258 and 265 in AdjT.

I look at this one as two teams heading in the right direction, but again living in a world of unknowns. I think Baldwin’s potential injury status is the key here, as even if he plays his effectiveness will be limited. Between missing Baldwin and Detroit coming off COVID I am liking the under here. In addition I think the other two main things in play are Detroit’s shooting ability and Milwaukee’s continued issues with turnovers, so I also grabbed Detroit and see this as a 68-58 type of contest. Also the worthless trend of the day has UW-M 0-7 in its last 7 contests on Friday nights!

DETROIT -4, 2 UNITS. Under 136.5 2 UNITS

Bonus Plays:

Boston University vs Loyola MD

Boston U is a senior laden team led by guards that plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Loyola is also a guard driven team with a slightly faster pace. Loyola is near the bottom in AdjO checking in at 287th in the country. Both teams turn the ball over around the middle of the pack and both teams are averaging just under 70 ppg. Between the mix of pace and lack of offensive prowess I am going to go under on this game.

Under 135, 1.5 UNITS

I don’t usually have picks in NBA as I think this is my 4th of the year, but the Nets/Bucks game is screaming under to me. Both teams have been scoring in bunches. Nets will be missing Kyrie since its a home game and the Bucks will be without Holliday, Allen, and Connaughton. Maybe that opens up more scoring potential for Durant and Harden, but this is likely a playoff preview, and both teams should be geared up on both ends of the court. They combined for 231 earlier in the year, but the playoff series last year never went above 226 and that was an OT game. Line movement has gone up from 230 to 232.5 and 40% of bets are on the Under, but that’s where I want to be.

Under 232.5, 1.5 UNITS