*CBB(1u): Rutgers/Minnesota UNDER 131.5(-110)–11 AM CT
Both Rutgers and Minnesota move at a very slow pace(Rutgers 252nd, Minnesota 279th), and with the way these teams match up, I have a hard time seeing many points in this one. Rutgers boasts a Top 30 defense in the country that is coming off a performance where they allowed just 46 to points to a high flying Iowa team. Minnesota’s offense barely cracks the Top 100 in offensive efficiency, but they Gophers play a solid brand of defense as well(75th in defensive efficiency). Rutgers has arguably the worst offense in the Power 5, averaging just 55 PPG over their last 3. The public has steamed this total up a full 2 points, which gives us the perfect opportunity to get a better number and play this one Under the total.
*CBB(1u): Auburn -4(-110) vs Kentucky–Noon PM CT
I bet against Kentucky the other night when they traveled to Texas A&M, and I’ll do the same here. Put simply, I am not sold that this team has what it takes to play their “A” game in road conference games. This is a tough spot for the Wildcats being their second road game in the span of 4 days. Not only will Auburn have a sold out crowd behind them, but this Tigers team(17-1) is just a tick better than Kentucky in my mind. Specifically, Auburn boasts a Top 10 defense and Top 15 offense and likes to push the floor when the opportunity presents itself. Kentucky is equally as good offensively, but I don’t trust them to execute in the halfcourt in this type of environment. I’d bet Auburn up to 4.5 in this one.
*CBB(1u): North Carolina/Wake Forest OVER 150.5(-110)–7 PM CT
North Carolina is a team that is built to find themselves in a lot of high-scoring games. The Tar Heels sport a really efficient offense and rank 49th in tempo, but their defense can be dreadful. That was evident against Miami this week, where they yielded an ugly 85 points to the ‘Canes. Things won’t get any easier today facing a similar up-tempo offense that shoots the basketball lights out at home. KenPom has the Wake Forest defense ranked at #49, but I push back against that a little bit. They’ve played Virginia and Georgia Tech over their past 2 games, which does anything but equip them to get stops against this Tar Heel attack. Given the high possession nature of this game, I still think this relatively high total is too low. I could see each team reaching the 80 point mark in this one, making the Over the obvious play.
*CBB ML Parlay(0.8u): Texas, Iowa State, Arkansas(+111)–1 PM CT
Texas is in a true “backs against the wall” spot here coming off 2 straight losses. They played Oklahoma State 2 weeks ago in Stillwater, losing with an offensive collapse late. Texas can always rely on their defense, and I’m just not all that high on Oklahoma State. I think Texas gets back in the win column and enacts some revenge on OK State today.
Iowa State has been a totally different team at home this season and will welcome one of the easier draws in the Big12 today. This is TCU’s second straight road game after losing a high-energy game at OK State on Wednesday. While the Horned Frogs play pretty solid defense, their offense is averaging less than 60 PPG in conference play this season. Iowa State is even better defensively and are a complete different offense in their home arena. I think the Cyclones get it done in front of their home crowd.
I have discussed Texas A&M on my podcast. Even though I backed them against Kentucky this week, I see them losing in convincing fashion to both Arkansas and LSU over their next 2 games. Arkansas hasn’t quite lived up to expectations this season, but I have a hard time seeing them lose this one.
Hi All! Unfortunately I absolutely hate the NBA slate today, so only leans for me. After a 4-0 Friday, I reckon we can all be content with that, plus– the NFL playoffs are back today! Let me know if you have any questions – expect NBA picks Sunday.
P.S. – I’m trying to figure out how to manage my day better because, as you can imagine, betting can really take over my life. I’ve had great success but it comes at a cost, often taking me away from family, friends, and experiences. Please notice the disclaimer at the bottom of this email, which I’ll include in every email from now on as a reminder. Thanks!
NBA Leans (not official plays):
Bucks -9: The shooting was HORRENDOUS for Milwaukee last night, even in a win. I think the Bucks ROLL Sacramento, a much less capable defense.
Pacers +12.5: These are the spots where Indiana covers and that’s all they’ve done lately.
NFL Divisional Round Picks:
Bengals +3.5 **
49ers/Packers 1Q over 7.5 *
49ers +5.5 *
Bucs 1Q -0.5 **
Bucs -3 **
Bills/Chiefs over 54 ***
Bills ML *
If you ever have any questions, message me here, on Twitter, or on Instagram. I will make myself available from 9am to 5pm every day, but please don’t expect an answer outside of those hours. I gotta shut it down sometimes. All picks are 1-5 stars based on unit size and confidence. 3 star picks are rare, 4-5 star picks are VERY rare. -Chris
The fight of the decade is finally upon us and and the winner becomes the baddest man on this planet. Let’s take a look at these two. Starting with Francis. What else can I say about him? Every time he fights, I have to have some sort of bet on him because he wins. His record might be perfect had he not had a bit of a back injury when he lost by decision to Derek Lewis and Stipe Miocic back in 2018. Since then, Francis hasn’t even went past 1.5 rounds with his opponents. This is where I see some value by the way and it’s not what you think. Now Francis is a little bit older at 35 years but I would not say that he is past his prime. He has 12 KO’s 4 submissions and his only losses were 3 decisions. Cyril Gane on the other hand came in with a lot of hype and has lived up to it. He is every bit as tall as Francis at 6’4 but he weighs about 10 LBs less at 247 lbs to 257 lbs for Francis and has a 2 inch reach disadvantage. Gane is undefeated at 10-0 and his last two fights with Lewis and Volkov showed that he’s a true contender. Now the fighting styles of both of these guys are pretty similar except for the fact that Gane is the better technical fighter and sometimes waits for his opponents to come in where he can counter punch and do a lot of damage. Ngannou is more of a bull but that somewhat plays into Gane’s hands and that is why he is a -155 favorite. Now the one thing that I mentioned earlier is that Francis finishes his fights fast, but I had not mentioned that Gane doesn’t finish fast and is more Methodical. Cyril likes to stick and move while counter punching gaining points and in no hurry to finish a fight. This is why his fight with Volkov went 5 rounds and his fight with Lewis went over 2.5 rounds. Let’s face it, Francis isn’t stupid and he knows all too well that he could get knocked out by Gane, and I do not think he will be in any hurry to rush in early until later in the fight where he could be desperate. There is so much on the table for this fight and I think that Gane wins, but the value is now gone past the -150. Instead I like the over 2.5 rounds at -110.
Over 2.5 Rounds – 1.5 stars
Bonus Play – Cody Stamann +170 – 1.5 stars – Said Nurmogomedov at 14-2 is coming in with too much hype. He has only fought 4 UFC fights and pretty much all tier 3 guys. Cody Stamann’s strength of schedule at 19-4-1 is much better fighting many top 10 guys and even taking Yadong Song to a draw. Don’t be fooled by the name Nurmogomedov and take the value with Cody at +170.
We go 3-0 last night cashing on MIN/CHI Over 5.5 and STL Blues in Regulation. I also added Jonathan Huberdeau over 0.5 Power Play pts late on twitter (@GatorBetting).
The MIN/CHI total soon moved to 6 later on in the day so we got incredible value there as the game ended with 6 goals total (MIN 5- CHI 1). Like most sports, closing line value means everything and that was a prime example of it. Instead of a push, we got a win.
The STL Blues in Regulation also moved from +100, which was what I posted and took it at, to around -120 before puck drop.
It’s a solid Saturday slate of games in the NHL which will be over shadowed by the NFL Playoffs as expected. If you’re looking for NFL bets be sure to check out the other articles posted on the site as those guys have incredible knowledge and insight.
Now onto todays breakdown and picks…
Toronto Maple Leafs @ New York Islanders
Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Toronto Maple Leafs: 24-10-3, 3rd Atlantic (10-6-2 Away)
New York Islanders: 14-13-6, 8th Metropolitan (7-6-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Toronto Maple Leafs
-165
-165
-1.5 (+150)
o5.5 (-115)
New York Islanders
+145
+145
+1.5 (-170)
u5.5 (-105)
Trends:
Over is 4-1-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Maple Leafs last 5 road games.
Islanders are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Islanders last 6 overall.
Preview:
This will be the second time these teams face off against each other. The first meeting was back in November where Toronto defeated the Islanders 3-0. Toronto closed that game at -120 and the Total was set at 5.5. Mitch Marner scored twice in that game and will be a guy I talk more upon in terms of player props.
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs are coming off a 6-3 loss against the New York Rangers on Wednesday night. Despite the loss, Toronto had a better Expected Goals than the Rangers (4.1 – 3.13). The issue was Jack Campbell’s performance as he finished the night with a -2.28 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
Toronto has struggled a bit late failing to win two games in a row since the start of January where they faced two inferior opponents. The Leafs will have had two days off since their last game and on two days rest are 8-0-2. More specifically are 5-1 when coming off a loss.
In terms of offense, the Leafs have look great as of late. They’ve scored 3 or more goals in all of their January games with the only outlier coming a few games back against Arizona. To be fair, Karel Vejmelka had a word class performance in that game making 45 saves. On the year, Toronto ranks 9th in Goals For Per 60 averaging 2.69 per game. The Leafs are also tied for the best Power Play % in the NHL, converting at a rate of 29.5 %.
If you’re looking to target player props tonight, start with Toronto’s leading scorer Austin Matthews. He’s currently on a 6 game point streak tallying 5 goals and 3 assists during that stretch. Mitch Marner has also been good in his last two games collecting a goal and an assist in each. Another player is Michael Bunting who’s on a 5 game point streak.
Defensively, Toronto gives up an average of 2.34 Goals Against Per 60. They have a -4.98 Goals Against Above Expected which is pretty good. However, in their last two games they have given up 6 and 5 goals against. The 6 goal game was against a very weak Rangers team in terms of offensive ability. I touched on it before, but Jack Campbell had a rare off night which does happen. The Leafs Penalty Kill has also been a strong point of theirs ranking 7th. In their last nine games they have only given up 2 power play goals to opposing teams.
Toronto will be without Jake Muzzin tonight who suffered a concussion on Tuesday night. There’s no time table for when he’ll return. They will get back Justin Holl who exited COVID protocols today and should return the lineup after missing two games.
Peter Mrazek has been confirmed as the starter for tonight. He’s got a .882 SV% and a -2.3 GSAx on the year in four starts. His last outing came back on January 12th where he allowed 2 goals against. In his other starts he’s allowed 4-4-3 goals against.
New York Islanders
The Islanders defeated the Arizona Coyotes last night by a score of 4-0. Brock Nelson led the charge scoring two goals with Scott Mayfield also recorded a goal and an assist. Ilya Sorokin recorded his fourth shutout of the season stopping all 17 shots he faced.
New York struggled in the beginning of the season which was partly due to their thirteen game road trip they had to take as they awaited the completion of their new arena. However, they seem to have gotten their groove back winning six of their last seven games. This may be misleading as they really didn’t face any strong opponents during that stretch and in the only game they did, they lost.
Looking at this team from an offensive prospective they haven’t been good. They have the second worst average in terms of Goals For Per 60 with 2.09. That being said, in their last three games they have scored four or more goals. So clearly, they have figured some things out up front. They rank dead last in the NHL in terms of Expected Goals For with just 58.54. In those last three games they have also significantly exceeded their average shots on goal for which was needed. Their Power Play ranks 23rd converting at a rate of just 17.6% and hasn’t found the back of the net in the past four games.
I honestly wouldn’t play any Islander’s player props but if you really want to, look at Anthony Beauvillier and Josh Bailey who are both on three game point streaks.
This team is built around their defense and their ability to shut teams down. They have a -8.03 Goals Against Above Expected and only average 2.09 Goals Against Per 60. In their last seven games, an opponent has only scored 3 goals against them once. New York’s Penalty Kill has also been good on the year ranking 10th.
Since Ilya Samsonov got the start last night, it’s likely that Semyon Varlamov will get the nod in net. Sorokin has the better goalie by far on the season which does hurt the Isles chances to grab back to back wins at home. Varlamov enters the game with a 0.0 GSAx on the year in his eleven starts.
Picks:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS/ NEW YORK ISLANDERS OVER 5.5 (-120)
In the past few games the Islanders offense has really started to click. Toronto’s offense is averaging 4 goals for and 3 against in their last 10. While the Islanders are a team that normally goes under, they are 3-3 to the over/under on back to back games. Combine all that with the fact that Varlamov and Mrazek will likely get the start, I like the over here.
Other Picks For Today:
COLORADO AVALANCHE 1P -0.5 (-105)
When looking at this game, there really isn’t much value as Colorado is a massive favorite. In terms of 1P statistics, Colorado is averaging 1.37 Goals For and 0.84 Goals Against. Montreal is averaging 0.57 Goals For and 1.17 Goals Against on the road. Colorado has started hot in their past few games, hitting the 1P ml in four of their last five games. It also looks like Cayden Primeau will be starting for Montreal who hasn’t been great for the Habs in his five starts.
LATE ADD JAN 22, 1:20 AM: David Pastrnak Over 0.5 Power Play Points (+130)
LATE ADD Jan 22, 3:13 AM: Tampa Bay Lightning in Regulation (-125)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday card has the 2022 Playoff Total of the Year Headlining in early action along with a late Triple system NFC Divisional round play. In Hoops we have the SEC Game of the Month and a Big Soccer Total. NCAAB Comp Play Below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Navy at 1:30 eastern. Navy is off an embarrassing loss here to Lehigh as an 11 point favorite. However they have home loss revenge on the Cadets and are 23rd ranked in defense and 22nd in rebounding. They have covered all 4 off a loss, 7 of 8 on Saturdays and 8 of 11 at home vs a losing road team. Army is ranked 205th on defense and 249th on rebounding. They are 1-5 ats as a road dog of more than 3. With Navy hungry for this one and the winning team in the series on a 13-0 Spread run we will make it the Midshipmen. On Saturday we have our 2022 Playoff Total Of The Year going early and a Big triple system play in the late NFC Matchup. In Hoops our lead play is the 100% SEC Game Of The Month. We also have a 5* Soccer Total and More. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook toJump on as we have another big Saturday. For the NCAAB Comp play. Go with Navy. Rob-V- Golden Contender Sports.
Yes this is a high spread for a slow team on the road here but the Bonnies have simply dominated this series of late (with essentially the same roster), winning both games last year by double digits. Bonnies may be missing some depth in this one which may have been what moved the market toward Duquesne. I think this is a buy low on an underperforming Bonnies team who can only improve as they get healthier. This is a great spot for a get-right game against a Duquesne team that I feel has been playing better than they really are. I’m laying the points with the Bonnies!
Check out more of my plays as on my Patreon as I have a 2-unit play in NCAAM tonight. I’m up +36 units since November!
On today’s episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael first breaks down 4 NBA games on the Friday night slate. He briefly revisits his buy low/sell high CBB segment from last week before breaking down 4 of the biggest CBB games over this weekend. To find all of Michael’s information, visit https://linktr.ee/fordhamsportsgambling
*CBB(1u): Michigan State/Wisconsin 1H UNDER 65.5(-110)–8 PM CT
Wisconsin comes into tonight with 7 straight wins under their belt and are certainly a team you don’t want your money against at the moment. However, they leave a bit to be desired for me on the offensive end of the floor. On the season, the Badgers are shooting just 42.5% from the floor, 31% from 3-point range, and only average 11.5 assists/game. Michigan State has a Top 30 defense in College Basketball and shouldn’t be blown away by anything Wisconsin throws at them tonight. However, I expect the Spartans to have issues establishing an offensive rhythm in this game. First of all, playing on the road at a place like Wisconsin is never easy. Beyond that, however, Michigan State has played just twice since January 5th after having a few games postponed. We last saw them this past Saturday, where they shockingly lost at home to Northwestern in a low-scoring game. Wisconsin has equally as good of a defense as the Spartans and should be able to dictate the pace of this game. Lucky for us, Wisconsin runs at the 235th fastest pace in the country. I think the defenses show out in this game early and each offense is able to better find a rhythm in the second half.
