I only make 2u plays when all the stars align for one particular side. Luckily, that’s exactly what we’re getting with the Wizards tonight. Washington has been at home for more than a week; tonight will be their 6th game of an 8 game home stand. On the other hand, tonight wraps up a 5 game road trip for the Raptors before they’ll travel back to Canada. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam have played over 40 minutes in EACH of the last 4 games for Toronto(all on the road); those include tough games against the Bucks, Heat, and Mavs. I respect Nick Nurse for going “all in” this early in the season, but that approach also has consequences. The Raptors being on the road for the past week only hurts their chances in this one. Washington is 3-2 on their current home stand and coming off a narrow loss to the Nets on Wednesday. As important, this Wizards squad doesn’t have one guy on the injury report. Washington ranks 7th in defensive efficiency over their past 3 games, while Toronto ranks 24th in offensive efficiency over that same stretch. This is truly an “all stars aligned” kind of spot; I’m going heavy on the Wizards to win this outright tonight.
*NBA(1u): Hawks ML(-120) vs Heat–6:40 PM CT
The Hawks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season. After dominating at home last season and making a deep playoff run, this team sits at just 19-25 on the season. However, they enter this game off of impressive home wins against the Bucks and T-Wolves and should be poised to keep things rolling tonight. These teams squared off twice just last week, with Miami nabbing wins in both games. I’m going to go out on a limb and say I have a hard time seeing the Heat beating this Hawks team 3 times in the span of 10 days, especially given some of the attrition on the Miami side. Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro will both be missed in this game; while Lowry isn’t flashy, he is a true point guard who continues to lead winning teams. Herro, on the other hand, is a volume shooter who gives the Heat a streaky scoring option. With Bam Adebayo still not back at his peak form, I don’t expect Miami to look too sharp tonight. I’ll trust that the Hawks carry the momentum from their prior 2 games into tonight. If Atlanta can’t win in this spot, then they are truly doomed.
Alllllright, folks. Time to get back on the win-train; the NBA has been awfully weird the last few days, but regression is coming. Here are today’s NBA picks and my full list of NFL plays. Listen to my podcast (will be released later today) for the full breakdown of my NFL takes.
NBA Picks:
Clippers/76ers under 213.5 *
Where are the points coming from in this game? The 76ers should be able to control this at the rim, and both teams have some of the best guard-defense in the NBA
Lakers -5.5 **
Let’s not overthink this. I know, it’s the Lakers. The Lakers are incredibly annoying. But they have a far better roster and probably still the best player in the world in this game. Lakers blow out Orlando.
Bucks 1Q ML **
The Bucks are comfortable at home, fully healthy, and should overwhelm the Bulls from the start. You can get this at -162 or so on Bovada, so you have to pay for some juice, but I don’t think there’s a chance the Bucks aren’t leading at the end of first.
Raptors win **
Better team than Washington, period, and this is a good spot for them to avenge some recent losses.
We have a huge show for you today! Marco D’Angelo @MarcoInVegas is back to break down a huge NFL week! First, Kiev gets into some UFC 270 Cyril Gane vs Francis Ngannou with some fantastic plays and leans.Then, Marco comes on and he gets right into some chicken wings and some NFL football for a huge weekend of playoffs. What is different about betting the playoffs compared to the regular season? The guys give out some huge FREE Plays for your weekend NFL fun. Then, Marco gives out a horse that has some big odds to win the Kentucky Derby! Next, Kiev recaps and gets into to some sharp money for the NFL slate. After than, Kiev talks some college hoops! Which teams have buy low signs and which teams have sell high signs and why. Finally, Kiev gives out some college hoops free plays!
UFC 270 – Cyril Gane vs Francis Ngannou –
NFL: San Francisco vs Green Bay – Buffalo vs Kansas City and more!
NCAA: Kentucky vs Auburn – Loyola vs Missouri State and more!
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I hope everyone enjoyed the last episode of Expected Bets For with Franco The Banker. He was an awesome guest that provided some incredible insight into the player prop market. In case you missed it you can check it out here. We went 2-1 on the night just missing out on the sweep with the COL/LAK game failing to go Over 6.
Now onto today’s slate of games. We have several teams coming off games last night which, is something to watch out for. In terms of line movement, there hasn’t been any major changes from the opening lines posted but I’m sure that will change before puck drop. The majority of the home teams are underdogs which is also something to be warry of so pay attention to the home/away splits.
Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Minnesota Wild: 22-10-3, 4th Central (10-7-2 Away)
Chicago Blackhawks: 15-18-6, 7th Central (8-7-3 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Minnesota Wild
-129
-145
-1.5 (+165)
o5.5 (-120)
Chicago Blackhawks
+117
+125
+1.5 (-190)
u5.5 (+100)
Trends:
Minnesota are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
Under is 4-0-1 in Blackhawks last 5 overall.
Blackhawks are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
Preview:
Minnesota Wild
The Minnesota Wild enter this game following a 4-3 Shootout loss to the red hot Colorado Avalanche on Monday. They’ve had a few days off and should be well rested heading into this matchup. Even though the Wild will be well rested, they’re currently plagued by the injury bug with several key member’s of the team questionable/ out for tonight.
Prior to Monday’s loss, the Wild were on a bit of a roll winning their last three against some solid opponents including Anaheim, Washington, and Boston. This has been an up and down rollercoaster for them this year and they desperately need some stability if they’re looking to make a post season push. The Wild currently sit in 4th place in the Central division but, do have 7 games in hand on the Nashville Predators who sit above them with just 6 more points.
Minnesota is a top tier offensive team in the NHL averaging 3.08 Goals For Per 60 which ranks 4th. They’re the 2nd best team in Goals For Above Expected with a +17.58. The issue with this number is while it’s great and they’ve taken advantage of scoring chances, they fail to create a lot of scoring chances. They rank near the bottom in xGF which isn’t really sustainable. If you’re looking to be an offensive juggernaut in the NHL they need to start creating more opportunities for themselves. Their Power Play hasn’t been great this season ranking 24th, converting at a rate of 17%. In their last 5 games, the man advantage has been even worse only capitalizing at a rate of 13%.
The Wild will likely be without Ryan Hartman and Nick Bjugstad who remain in COVID protocols. Hartman is their 3rd leading scorer on the team and will be a significant loss.
In terms of player props to target for Minnesota, lets start with their leading scorer Kirill Kaprizov. He’s currently on a 6 game point streak tallying 6 goals and 6 assists during that stretch. Another guy to look at is Mats Zuccarello who’s also on a 6 game point streak collecting 3 goals and 7 assists during that period.
Defensively, the Wild haven’t been anything to write home about. They rank middle of the table in terms of their Goals Against Per 60 giving up 2.54 on average. The Wild are allowing the 23rd most Shots on Goal Against per game and shouldn’t be a major flaw here as Chicago ranks 30th in Shots on Goal For per game. Their Penalty Kill ranks 16th and has seen a lot of action as of late as they’re one of the least disciplined teams in the league. The one area where the Minnesota defense thrives is their ability to limit High Danger Shots Against giving up the fewest in the NHL.
The Wild will continue to be without defensemen Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin as they remained injured.
The main question tonight is who will be in net come puck drop for Minnesota. Their starting goaltender Cam Talbot is currently listed as day-to-day and is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is able to go he enters this game with a -0.2 GSAx through 24 games played. If he’s unable to go, Kappo Kahkonen will likely get the start who has a +2.0 GSAx on the year in his 12 games played. He’s been a fine replacement for Talbot in his 4 game absence never allowing more than 3 goals in any of those starts.
EDIT: Kahkonen confirmed as starter for MIN
Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago enters this game spot in a similar spot. They’re coming off a 3-2 Shootout loss against the Seattle Kraken on Monday. Prior to that loss, they rattled off a 4 game winning streak knocking off Anaheim, Montreal, Columbus, and Vegas. Chicago was the favorite in three of those four games with the only upset coming in their win against the Golden Knights on the road. The Blackhawks were scheduled to play Edmonton on January 18th however, that game was postponed.
This team was a dark horse Stanley Cup contender at the beginning of the season with the acquisitions they made. All hopes of that have faded unless they can put together an incredible run in the second half of the season. If you’re looking for a glimpse of hope for this team, they currently sit only 12 points out of the final Wild Card spot.
Chicago has several issues with their team but let’s start with the offense. They have the leagues worst average in terms of Goals For Per 60 with 1.79. Chicago fails to create scoring chances and it shows with their Expected Goals For of just 60.05. Their Power Play ranks 19th but has shown signs of life exceeding their season rate of 18.8% in their last three games.
Even at 33 years old, Patrick Kane still leads this team in points and will be guy you’re looking to target in terms of player props for Chicago. He hasn’t had a great season by any means failing to score in 13 games in a row before breaking that streak three games ago against Montreal. However, he has scored 2 goals in his last 3 and is on a 8 game point streak.
Other players that are on point streaks include Dominik Kubalik (3 games), Brandon Hagel (3 games), and Erik Gustafsson (3 games). The odds for these players to record a point will undoubtedly be higher than Kane and will offer more value.
The Blackhawks will be without Kirby Dach and Brett Connolly who remain sidelined with COVID.
In addition to their issues up front, the Blackhawks also have major issues defensively. Chicago has the 4th worst Goal Differential (-21) which is more so a reflection of the whole team. They have the 5th worst Goals Against Above Expected with a +9.68 and have an average of 2.45 Goals Against Per 60. Their Penalty Kill is also a concern ranking 25th but, just like their Power Play, has been much better as of late.
Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to get the start tonight and just like the whole team, has under performed on the year. He has a -2.3 GSAx in his 27 starts which is horrendous when you compare it to last year when he had a +17.9 GSAx for Vegas. The good news is that he’s looked much better as of late allowing 2-0-2-2-1 in his last 5 starts.
Picks:
MINNESOTA WILD/ CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS OVER 5.5 (-120)
When you look at this game, is extremely tough to handicap because you do have to put a lot more emphasis on their recent performances, specifically Chicago’s. They’ve been a completely different team that has been playing much better hockey. These teams haven’t faced off against each other this year so there’s no real data on how they’ve matched up in the past. They did meet twice in the pre-season but with different lineups so I don’t really factor that in. The Blackhawks have been better at home and Minnesota has struggled on the road, which isn’t necessarily anything crazy or out of the ordinary. In fact, it’s to be expected.
As previously mentioned, both teams are well rested and have trended towards the over on three or more days of rest. Chicago’s offense has shown signs of life which makes me believe that they can contribute a few goals in this game. Minnesota has scored at least 3 or more in their last 6 games and should be able to get several past this Chicago team. While Kappo Kahkonen and Marc-Andre Fleury have been better as of late, it’s not a major concern here. The only solid offensive team Chicago has faced in their previous few games is Vegas. If Seattle can get three past this team, I believe Minnesota can at least do the same. Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been great recently in terms of goals allowed and will give this Chicago offense several opportunities.
Other Plays for Tonight:
ST. LOUIS BLUES IN REGULATION (+100)
Last night (Thursday) the Kraken defeated the San Jose Sharks 3-2. The Kraken were a slight home favorite in that matchup (-115) but have struggled in back to back games all season going 1-5. The Blues are finally healthy and will have a full squad tonight that should be well rested as their last game took place on January 17th. While St. Louis hasn’t been great on the road this season with a 7-7-3 record, they catch the Kraken in a great spot. St. Louis is a much better team than Seattle and ranks better in nearly every category. The current line is around -170 and I expect that to shift to close to -190 around puck drop. I’m going to lock this number in over night and back the Blues here to grab one on the road in regulation.
EDIT: Husso for STL/ Daccord for SEA
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I enjoyed a 4-1, +3.4u Wednesday which brings me to 23-15-1, +9.1u in the month of January! In addition to this free play, I have an NBA play that’s reserved for my premium members. My premium plays are hitting at a 57.9% clip and have netted my members +42.2u since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Saint Louis -2.5(-110) @ UMASS–6 PM CT
UMASS is an interesting team because, despite shooting 41.4% from 3 this season, they hold just a 7-9 record. That’s likely because this Minutemen team plays some of the worst defense in CBB, ranking 332nd in defensive efficiency out of 358 teams. If a team has to be nearly precise to pick up a win, I almost always look to play against them. Saint Louis has all the motivation in the world to pick up this road win as they try to climb up the A10 standings, and frankly, I think this team has what it takes to make a second half push. The Billikens hover right around 75th in both offensive and defensive efficiency and have proven to me that they can win in tougher road environments than they’ll find themselves in tonight. Earlier in the season, they traveled across the country to take on Boise State(#51 in KenPom) and walked out of there with a win. More recently, they got their feet wet with a road game at Dayton; although they narrowly lost, those types of games prepare you to take care of business when you enter easier road matchups. This line opened up at 3.5 before being bet down to 2.5, but I disagree with that line movement. I like the Billikens to take care of business tonight.
The Warriors are in a pretty easy stretch of their schedule having played Detroit on Tuesday and the Pacers and Rockets on deck the next 2 nights. With home games against the Jazz and Mavericks looming, I don’t think Steve Kerr is going to want to push any of his key guys too much over the next 2 nights, which keeps this as a 1H play. As a result, I think we’ll get Golden State’s best effort early in this game; by all accounts, they should totally dominate this Pacers squad. Indiana has won just twice over their last 12 games and appears to have woven the white flag on this season. They actually picked up a comeback win against the Lakers in LA last night, but I don’t expect them to recover well in the second game of the back-to-back(with travel). Golden State is trustworthy, while Indiana is certainly a team you want your money against. I like the Warriors to take a double-digit lead into the half.
Thursday card has a 6* NCAAB Rare Blowout, a Triple Perfect NHL Total, NBA and an Australian open Open Tennis play. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Oakland at 8:00 eastern. The Grizzlies are on a 6 game win streak and take on a dismal Wisconsin Milwaukee team. The Grizzlies are far better on both sides of the ball. The favorite in this series has covered 5 of the last 6. The Panthers have failed to cover 5 of 6 vs .600 or better teams and 21 of 29 at home. They are ranked 299th in the nation in scoring and will have a tough time with an athletic Oakland team. Lay the points with the Grizzlies. On Thursday another Powerful card is up. The Lead play is a rare 5* NCAAB Blowout. We also have a Triple Perfect NHL Total, Early Soccer, NBA and Tennis. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now. For the NCAAB Comp Play. Go with Oakland. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Well we had a subpar day in the NBA, going 1-3 Wednesday, although our unit allocation was spot on. Our one win was our only 2 unit play on the Hornets. It’s another really tough day of NBA games with limited value. Let’s see what we can find. Full NFL Picks will be out by tomorrow.
NBA Picks:
Knicks -3.5 **
This is a good get-right spot for the Knicks after two disappointing losses. They’re at home, they’re healthy, they’re a deeper and better team than the Pelicans. Get it done, New York!
Pacers 1H +6.5 *
This line is disrespectful for an Indiana team that’s 14-8 ATS as an underdog and 5-2 ATS off no rest. Indiana is all about momentum and rhythm and this is a great spot for them to get up for. We’re playing the first half since I think that momentum from last night will carry into today – I’d rather avoid the full game since Indiana could tank out towards the end.
