We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to talk about a chaotic week in NFL football and the College Football national championship! First, Kiev talks about how excited and proud he is for our friends Chris Farley and Steve Norman currently ranking 12th in the Circa Millions! Then, Kiev gets into the College Football national championship with his handicap and play. Next, Kiev discusses NFL week 18 with some game break downs and some free picks. Finally, Kiev gives out our refuse to lose teaser that is currently 8-9 for the 2021 season.
NFL: Dallas vs Philadelphia – San Francisco vs LA Rams and more!
NCAA: Georgia vs Alabama
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Coming off a 2-0 night, I’m now on an 8-1 run and have hit my last 6 CFB plays! Overall, my premium plays are hitting at a 57% clip and have netted my members +34.2u since starting up in September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Nets -8(-110) @ Pacers–6:40 PM CT
Kyrie Irving makes his return to the Nets tonight, and considering that Brooklyn has dropped 3 straight games, he should provide an instant boost to a team that needs to right the ship. However, with or without Irving, I’d like the 23-12 Nets in this spot because it’s as much of a fade of this Pacers team. Indiana has lost their last 5 games and 6 of their last 7; what appeared to be just a “slow start” to the season is appearing to be much worse. The Pacers could welcome back some guys off the injury report tonight(namely Malcolm Brogdon), but I don’t expect him to make as big of an effect as people think in just his first game back. Also, Brooklyn’s backcourt is still clearly superior, making his impact potentially minimal. Indiana laid a total egg in New York last night in a 10 point loss to the Knicks and now have to turn right back around for the second game of a back-to-back. 4 Pacers starters played at least 32 minutes last night(Sabonis played 39), so the rest disadvantage could be more visible than usual in this game. I don’t love laying large numbers like this, but this is a clear-cut “get right” spot for a good Nets team as well as a clear fade on an Indiana team that might have lost all its hope for a good season.
Miami’s roster is certainly not at “full strength” at the moment, but it can’t be said how much Damian Lillard’s absence means to this Trail Blazers team. Portland was struggling even with Lillard in the lineup because they are also without CJ McCollum and have run into some trouble in their frontcourt depth. While Portland did beat Atlanta a couple of nights ago, it took a 43 point performance from Anfernee Simons to squeak out that win. That type of output is not sustainable for a 4th year guy who has never been the centerpiece of this Blazers team. While Miami has lost 2 straight games, they covered against the Warriors the other night and are playing pretty well considering all the pieces they are missing. With veterans like Kyle Lowry and PJ Tucker leading the way tonight, I have a hard time seeing an Erik Spoelstra coached team dropping 3 straight games. Again, Portland is without Damian Lillard; that alone justifies this multi-unit play on the Heat.
The books have owned me since Christmas, so I decided to write about my losses each day and let you know WHY they lost and give you my analysis to why they SHOULD have won. Hope you enjoy and can learn from it.
Illinois had no side effects from the Covid pause, shot 42.9% from three and out rebounded Minnesota 52-26
The Illinois Fighting Illini are on the road as they travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers Tuesday night at Williams Arena. Illinois comes in 9-3 after a 88-63 win on a neutral floor as they rolled past Missouri back on December 22. The Fighting Illini were supposed to play Florida A&M December 29 but had that game called off due to having 10 players test positive for COVID-19. Minnesota enters with a 10-1 record after knocking off Green Bay 72-56 at home in their most recent contest back on December 22. The Gophers had one game cancelled but have not been effected by the virus and have been practicing every day, other than the required break for the holidays. “It’s been a very different Christmas break. Instead of having two-a-days, we did nothing,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. “We’ve done very little activity at all. …You’re looking at a long period of time where guys haven’t had a ball in their hands and haven’t done anything physically at all. But we’re back, and we’re going to play a game tomorrow.” The key matchup will be the offense of Illinois who score 81.2 points per game and shoot 47.7% from the field against the Gophers defense while only allows 63.1 points per game on 41% shooting and are even better at home. Illinois thrives on the offensive side of the ball by shooting 39.7% from long distance and rebounding the ball with opportunities to second chance points but they could have some issues doing that against the Gophers defense who only gives up 24.8% from three, ranking them 3rd in the nation. There should be opportunities for the Gophers defense as well with the Illini ranking 302nd in turnover percentage on offense which opens up opportunities for quick points off breakaway steals, a stat that the Illini rank 347th in. Illinois is the better team but if you combine the lack of conditioning by Illinois with the experienced Gophers squad playing at home, I expect the Illini to win by 5 points or less. Additionally, the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Minnesota +7.5 (play to +6.5)
Virginia shot 54.3% from the field and limited Clemson to 46%. Hoos also out rebounded 28-23 and hit 87.5% of FT (Clemson 62.5%)
The Virginia Cavaliers will stay on the road tonight with a trip to South Carolina to take on the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum. The Cavaliers have been up and down this season and are 8-5 overall after winning three of the last five games played including a five point road win against Syracuse on New Year’s Day. The Tigers enter with a 9-4 record after beating this same Virginia team by 17 points on December 22nd. Their last game against Duke was cancelled due to Covid protocols within the Blue Devils squad. With similar strength of schedules, the Hoos come in scoring just 62.8 points per game but hold their opposition to 57.2 points per game while the Tigers are scoring 75.2 points per game and allowing 65.2 points per game. Virginia scores most of their points inside the arc but they will be challenge by the Tigers 62nd ranked defense in allowing 2-point field goals. These defenses are comparable this season but the edge in this game will go to Clemson with the better offense and rebounding. The Tigers own the 24th best adjusted offensive efficiency and rank 99th in grabbing the boards, whereas, Virginia is 126th in effective field goal percentage and 302nd in total rebounds per game. They might not win by the margin they did last game, but I don’t expect the outcome to be much different. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Clemson -4 (play to -4.5)
Detroit has been putting up some points and should be confident against a defenseless Charlotte team in need of a win. All the Hornets do is score. I have this at 233. Take the over.
Nets -7.5 **
As annoying as Kyrie is, he’s really talented and he’ll return tonight. The Nets need some juice – this is the spot against a banged up Pacers squad. Expect this number to rise – take it ASAP.
Raptors/Bucks over 225.5 **
Both of these teams excel in fast-break points, the Raptors have been putting up big numbers lately, and this is a get-right-let’s-go!- game for the Bucks at home after a bad loss to the Pistons. Points points points- I have it at 232.
Heat +1 *
Lots of players out for both teams but Miami is easily the better unit. Expressing caution since it’s at Portland and Miami is so banged up, but Anfernee Simons won’t have an absurd scoring game again – take the Heat.
P.S. – NFL Picks may come later than tomorrow this week. Doing extra extra analysis and it’s needed in Week 18. Expect at least a few plays by Friday.
Both LA Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders playing each other controlling their own destiny.
LA Rams Wins the division with a win vs San Francisco and potentially take them out of the playoffs so both teams motivated. San Francisco might miss the playoffs if they lose and Saints win, so they certainly will be going for it.
San Francisco gets in the Playoffs with a win vs the Rams and/or a Saints loss at Atlanta.
The Colts will be motivated to win to get in because they don’t get the nod over the Raiders if both of them lose.
Needs a little help yet still motivated:
Pittsburgh at Baltimore could get in with a win at Baltimore and a Colts loss.
Saints win and 49ers loss gets the Saints in but they do not control that but at least they are favored and San Francisco isn’t.
Tampa can get the number 2 seed with a Rams loss if they beat Carolina.
Baltimore needs the world to turn upside down to get in the playoffs. They need to beat the Steelers, and have all losses from the Colts, Chargers, and Dolphins.
Gets to play the Spoiler:
Atlanta hosting the Saints if one for sure!
The Texans get to remove the Titans from the number 1 seed with a win this week.
The Broncos could knock Kansas City down to the 4 seed
Jacksonville could take out Indianapolis if Steelers win.
Carolina will want to keep Tampa off the 2nd game home field advantage.
The Jets could screw up the Bills division with a win and knock them down to Wild Card.
Miami could hurt the Patriots seed with a win.
Questionable Motivation:
New England remains the top wildcard spot with a win but does it matter to Bill or is rest more important?
The Rest of all the teams not mentioned.
Dallas – Dallas really can’t do much to improve their seed being that the teams above them have easy games. They might be able to jump the Rams if they lose, but they play on Saturday so they won’t know. What is very improbable is the Rams, Tampa and Arizona all losing for Dallas to get the 2 seed.
Cincinnati if Kansas City wins on Saturday, they “could” move up to the 2 seed, but being that Tennessee is a 10 point favorite, it might be better to move down to the 4 seed to eventually play the Titans instead of Kansas City (should the wildcard games all lose). It is hard to predict where Patriots, Raiders and Colts will land but the best team to play there would be the Raiders if possible and the Colts are slotted in at the 6 spot which plays the 3 in the first round. Burrow was limping after the game last week. If I am Cinci, I am going for that 4 seed unless Houston is winning at the half.
No Motivation:
Philadelphia. It’s pick your poison for Philadelphia.
527/ 528 Suns at Pelicans 1H total OV 108.5 (-108)*
The total in this one has been pushed up from 218.5 to 224.5. Phoenix coming off of two high scoring affairs with the worst defense in the NBA in the Hornets and a shorthanded Celtics team. In those games, the Suns held the high scoring Hornets to 99 points and the Celtics to 108. The Suns’ C Ayton and Crowder are game-time decisions, two of their better defenders, yet we’re seeing money come in on the over.
The Pelicans are likely getting Brandon Ingram and Valancunias back tonight. We know with Ingram comes a lot of scoring and less defense. I agree with the line move to the over here because we have 4 of L5 between these two going over the total. However, these teams both lean to the under in these situations PHX 6-10 O/U in away games and NOR 8-9 O/U in home games, that’s enough to keep me off of the whole game total.
Looking at the 1H total of 108.5, the books seem to have adjusted to both of these teams’ tendency towards the Under here at well under half of the whole game. I’ll bite on this one as we see the Pelicans playing winning teams at home on the season are 6-3 O/U full game with the average 1H total over 111 here, average game total at 215. With the market heavy on the over here and the books having adjusted for the whole game, I’ll take the over on the lower 1H total. There is a chance Ingram and the Suns’ Crowder/ Ayton could come out rusty after their long COVID layoffs, so it will be just a small play for me.
Check out my Patreon for more of my plays as I ended November and December in the green, with a two star play in NCAAM tonight!
The Illinois Fighting Illini are on the road as they travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers Tuesday night at Williams Arena. Illinois comes in 9-3 after a 88-63 win on a neutral floor as they rolled past Missouri back on December 22. The Fighting Illini were supposed to play Florida A&M December 29 but had that game called off due to having 10 players test positive for COVID-19. Minnesota enters with a 10-1 record after knocking off Green Bay 72-56 at home in their most recent contest back on December 22. The Gophers had one game cancelled but have not been effected by the virus and have been practicing every day, other than the required break for the holidays. “It’s been a very different Christmas break. Instead of having two-a-days, we did nothing,” Illinois head coach Brad Underwood said. “We’ve done very little activity at all. …You’re looking at a long period of time where guys haven’t had a ball in their hands and haven’t done anything physically at all. But we’re back, and we’re going to play a game tomorrow.” The key matchup will be the offense of Illinois who score 81.2 points per game and shoot 47.7% from the field against the Gophers defense while only allows 63.1 points per game on 41% shooting and are even better at home. Illinois thrives on the offensive side of the ball by shooting 39.7% from long distance and rebounding the ball with opportunities to second chance points but they could have some issues doing that against the Gophers defense who only gives up 24.8% from three, ranking them 3rd in the nation. There should be opportunities for the Gophers defense as well with the Illini ranking 302nd in turnover percentage on offense which opens up opportunities for quick points off breakaway steals, a stat that the Illini rank 347th in. Illinois is the better team but if you combine the lack of conditioning by Illinois with the experienced Gophers squad playing at home, I expect the Illini to win by 5 points or less. Additionally, the Fighting Illini are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Golden Gophers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Minnesota +7.5 (play to +6.5)
The Virginia Cavaliers will stay on the road tonight with a trip to South Carolina to take on the Clemson Tigers at Littlejohn Coliseum. The Cavaliers have been up and down this season and are 8-5 overall after winning three of the last five games played including a five point road win against Syracuse on New Year’s Day. The Tigers enter with a 9-4 record after beating this same Virginia team by 17 points on December 22nd. Their last game against Duke was cancelled due to Covid protocols within the Blue Devils squad. With similar strength of schedules, the Hoos come in scoring just 62.8 points per game but hold their opposition to 57.2 points per game while the Tigers are scoring 75.2 points per game and allowing 65.2 points per game. Virginia scores most of their points inside the arc but they will be challenge by the Tigers 62nd ranked defense in allowing 2-point field goals. These defenses are comparable this season but the edge in this game will go to Clemson with the better offense and rebounding. The Tigers own the 24th best adjusted offensive efficiency and rank 99th in grabbing the boards, whereas, Virginia is 126th in effective field goal percentage and 302nd in total rebounds per game. They might not win by the margin they did last game, but I don’t expect the outcome to be much different. Additionally, the Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 while the Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Clemson -4(play to -4.5)
Simply put, this is not a Grizzlies team you want to be going against right now. Memphis has won 5 straight games and beat Brooklyn by 14 last night as 6.5 point ‘dogs. Sure, this is the second game of a back-to-back, but the Grizzlies did have 2 days off before last night’s game. Given that this is a younger team, I worry less about rest with them, especially when they’re in such good current form. Cleveland was equally as hot as Memphis about a month ago, but the Cavs enter this game winning just 2 of their last 6 games. They are depleted at the guard position right now, which bodes terribly facing the duo of Ja Morant-Desmond Bane tonight. In my opinion, this line is paying way too much respect to a Cavs team that has lost their mojo and neglects to acknowledge just how hot the Grizzlies are. I don’t need the 2-and-a-half points; I’ll take Grizzlies ML with a pretty sizable return in this one.
LSU’s roster has been completely purged amidst their coaching change; the Tigers will have right around 40 scholarship players for this game tonight. The Tigers are hurting most at the QB position after starting QB Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M; backup Myles Brennan will return next season but won’t be available for this game, and freshman Garrett Nussmier is sitting out in order to preserve his redshirt. That leaves the Tigers with 0 scholarship QB’s for this game. In all likelihood, they will choose to play a WR at quarterback and keep the ball on the ground throughout this game. Of note, however, leading RB Tyrion Davis-Price(1004 yards this season) has also opted out. The major takeaway from all of this is that this will look much more like the LSU scout team than the team we saw throughout much of the regular season, and even then, this was just a 6-6 LSU team. Kansas State, on the other hand, had nobody opt out for this game and will also welcome back QB Skylar Thompson from injury to compete in his last college game. Thompson is extremely valuable to this Wildcat offense given his experience as a 4 year starter, but he’s also capable of taking advantage of an undermanned LSU defense(69% completion, 9 Y/A this season). Kansas State also has a special RB in Deuce Vaughn; the sophomore racked up 1246 yards at almost 6 YPC this season and is a total difference maker in the run game, pass game, and on special teams. One team clearly cares a whole lot more about this game, and it helps that they also proved to be quite good when healthy this season. I’ve got no problem laying the 7 with K-State against what is going to be an unrecognizable LSU squad tonight.
