Rough night in the NBA, but how about the Steelers giving us one more NFL win for a sweet 11-5 week in pro football?!? Let’s go!
On that note, and as you probably already know, we think we’ll be in the top 10 in Circa after going 5-0 this week, heading into the final round next Sunday. My volume in the NBA may be lower than usual depending on the day, and please understand that some of that is because I have to remain ultra-focused on the NFL this week, more than ever. Always appreciate your support! Let’s keep winning!
NBA Picks:
Raptors -5.5 **
The combination of Anunoby and Siakam on the floor seems to be working. The Spurs are still injured and remain without their best scorer, D. Murray. The Raptors are at home and they love a winning streak. All TOR for me.
SAC/LAL over 228 **
Unlike last year, this year’s Lakers’ team is predicated on fast-paced offense and virtually no defense. Most of their games have rocketed to the over and I expect this one to go the same way against a Kings squad capable of putting up points.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev goes over a very complicated week in the NFL! First, Kiev recaps the big bowls and NFL week 17. Next, Kiev gives out an alt-line free play for the Texas bowl. Then, Kiev talks about a crazy and complicated playoff scenarios for your NFL betting. Which teams have clinched? Who are the teams that can get better seeds and what needs to happen in order for them to get there? What are their motivations? How can we find some value on some teams this weekend in the derivative markets when they know that they have a shot at improving their playoff or seeding situations? Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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The 2022 PGA Tour season is underway with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. By no means is this a major tournament or highlight of the PGA Tour but it’s still golf. This is an invite only event reserved for players who have won an event on Tour since the previous years tournament.
This year’s field features 39 PGA Tour winners from last season that include eight of the top 10 in the Official World Golf Ranking, and eight of the top 10 in the current 2021-22 FedExCup standings. In addition to those golfers, it also features 10 first-time winners. The only non-winner of a PGA Tour event is Xander Schauffele who earned an exemption through his win at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.
There’s several storylines coming into this year event and it starts with Phil Mickelson who won the PGA Championship last year at 50 years old. This will be the first time he competes in this event in 21 years.
The World Number 1 Ranking is also at stake this weekend. Jon Rahm, who will compete in this first event since the Fortinet Championship will look to hold off budding superstar Collin Morikawa who currently ranks 2nd.
This is always a fun event to watch and it features plenty of birdies with a gorgeous Hawaii backdrop. Now let’s breakdown the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions as we look to start the year off on a good note!
Notable Withdraws: Rory McIlroy
Tournament Information:
Dates: January 6th, 2022- January 9th, 2022
Location: Kapalua, Hawaii, United States
Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Course Type: Coastal/ Parkland
Par: 73 (3x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
Length: 7,596 yards
Format: 72 hole stroke play
Field/ Cut: 39 Players | No Cut
Greens: TifEagle Bermudagrass
Fairways: Celebration Bermudagrass
Rough: Celebration Bermudagrass 2.25″
Stimpmeter: 10.0 feet (Slow)
Purse: $8,200,000 / Winner $1.476 Million
FedEx Cup Points: 500
Bunkers: 93
Water Hazards: 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
Average Green Size: 8,722 sq. ft. (Large)
Scoring Average:
2021: 69.32 (-3.68)
Course/ Tournament History:
The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and continues to be restricted to golfers who have won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.
This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format in order to not compete against the NFL schedule.
The 2022 Event will feature it’s largest prize pool ever, and will increase the winners share to $1.476 Million from last years $1.340 Million.
Justin Thomas (2017, 2020) is the only two time winner who will be competing in this years tournament. Other previous winners include Jordan Spieth (2016), Patrick Reed (2015), Xander Schauffele (2019), and last years champion Harris English.
Dustin Johnson has also won this event twice (2013, 2018) but will not play this year as he failed to capture a win on tour last season.
Jack Nicklaus holds the record for the most wins at this event with 5 (1963, 2964, 1971, 1973, and 1977).
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shoes of Maui offering stunning views on most holes.
That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 where Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the winds did play more of a factor than what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around what were used to.
The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bombers paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.
The main defense of the course is obviously the winds, as it sits on the coast line but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.
During the 2019/2020 renovation the course underwent a complete renovation affecting every aspect of it. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were recontoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, Harris English still went out and shot a -25 last year to win it. English’s path to victory last year was through his putting where he gained an outstanding 6.85 Stokes.
Bryson Dechambeau, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Jordan Speith, Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Reed, Harris English
Live Bet Insight:
The eventual winner of the tournament has been 5th or better after Day 1 since 2011. The only outlier was Xander Schauffele back in 2019, who was 19th after the first day.
Since 2011, the leader heading into the final day has won the event 7 out of 11 times.
It certainly was the Summer of Bryson Dechambeau. After essentially becoming the “villain” on the PGA Tour last year, he won the hearts of American back during the Ryder Cup.
We haven’t seen him in a Professional golf event since last season so the only real recent form comes from The Match V where he got smoked by Brooks Koepka.
Bryson competed in this event back in 2021 and finished 7th. The area of his game that held him back was his putting, which remains a constant struggle for him. He lost strokes putting every day besides on Sunday. To make matters worse he’ll be without a detailed greens book and has struggled in events where he isn’t allowed to use them, i.e. The Masters.
We all know he’s the longest hitter and tour and the large fairways at Kapalua should offer him some relief if his accuracy is an issue this week. The distance shouldn’t be an issue either and will give him a slight advantage on all of the Par 5’s in terms of approach shots.
I’m not in love with the price but if he’s on his game, it’s his tournament to win. This could be the year of Bryson…
Jordan Spieth (+2200) – Draftkings
Price: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
The last time Spieth teed it up at Kapalua was back in 2018 where he finished 9th. In every event he has played here (2014,2016,2017,2018) he has finished inside the Top 10.
Most recently Spieth is coming off a horrendous performance at the Hero World Challenge where he finished dead last. However, he did just have a kid a few days before so I’m sure golf wasn’t the first thing on his mind.
Historically he’s played great here gaining the most strokes at Kapalua in the field. He should benefit from the increased fairway width as well just like Bryson. While his recent form is a concern, I’m choosing to go with the previous results as more of an indicator of his performance here.
Jason Kokrak (+4100) – FanDuel
Risk 0.20 to win 8.20 Units
Several other books have already shifted Kokrak to 35-1 and even as low as 22-1 on BETMGM. So with FanDuel offering this number of 41-1, I’ll gladly take it. Jason Kokrak captured two wins on Tour during the 2021 Season with his most recent win coming in November at the HPE Houston Open.
Most recently he won the QBE Shootout with Kevin Na where they barely edged out Billy Horschel and Sam Burns. Kokrak and Na caught fire on the back nine and birdied every hole besides one to capture the title.
Jason Kokrak has only played in this event once before and that was last year where he finished 35th. However, he seems to be in great form and fits the course fairly well in several key statistics. He has the ability distance wise off the tee and has been great with his putter. If he can follow the Harris English path to victory here, which is through putting, I think he has a shot.
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.24 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Xander Schauffele (-105) – FanDuel
Risk 1.05 to win 1.00 Units
Patrick Reed (+190) – FanDuel
Risk 0.50 to win 0.80 Units
Total Risk on Top 10: 1.55 Units
Total Risk on Sentry Tournament of Champions : 2.79 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Only one game taking place tonight in the NHL. There was originally two other games scheduled however, they are postponed.
The first episode of Expected Bets For will be out tomorrow breaking down Wednesday’s slate of games. I’d be greatly appreciated if you could go give it a listen when it drops.
Now, lets breakdown the lone game happening tonight between the Edmonton Oilers and New York Rangers.
New York Rangers: 21-8-4, 3rd Metropolitan (9-3-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Edmonton Oilers
+110
-125
-1.5 (+185)
o6.5 (-105)
New York Rangers
-135
+105
+1.5 (-225)
u6.5 (-115)
Trends:
Over is 5-0 in Oilers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Edmonton are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers’ last 7 games at home.
Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Preview:
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers have been terrible lately after a promising start to the season. They have just three wins since the start of December which has them clinging to the last wild card spot by just a point. Edmonton hoped to turn things around after a much needed break bu, has dropped their last three games following the Christmas pause.
Connor McDavid was absent during the morning skate for Edmonton today but, head coach Dave Tippett confirmed it was just for rest and that he is expected to play tonight.
After leading the league in several offensive categories earlier this year, the Oilers have fallen off a bit. They’re currently averaging 2.61 Goals For Per 60 with a -5.23 Goals For Above Expected. Despite the lack of production up front as of late, Edmonton still has the best Power Play in the league with a 31.2 conversion rate.
In terms of injuries, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been downgraded to OUT for tonight’s matchup. Zack Kassian will also be out as he remains on IR.
Defensively, the Oilers have also regressed quite a bit but, sill have a -0.71 Goals Against Above Expected. Despite that somewhat encouraging stat, Edmonton does have the third worst Goals Against Per 60 with a 2.94 average.
Mikko Koskinen is expected to be the starter tonight with Mike Smith on IR. Koskinen has not been great this year with a -4.6 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).
New York Rangers
The Rangers will be playing their third game in four days which puts them in a tough spot here. Last night, they defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning at home by a score of 4-0 behind a hat trick from Mika Zibanejad.
New York’s success this year can certainly not be contributed to their offensive ability. They rank near the bottom of the league in Goals For Per 60 averaging just 2.13. This number isn’t necessarily due to their inability to capitalize on changes but, more so on their inability to create them. One positive for the Rangers up front has been their Power Play which ranks 7th (25.3%).
The Rangers will be without their leading scorer Artemi Panarin tonight as he remains in quarantine.
Defensively, New York has been solid all season. They have one of the leagues best Goals Against Above Expected with a -7.75. New York is averaging 2.16 Goals Against Per 60 which also ranks near the top of the NHL. Just like their Power Play, their Penalty Kill has also been a strong point of theirs and will be put to the test tonight.
Alexander Georgiev is expected to get the start for the Rangers tonight. Georgiev has a -5.4 GSAx on the season which is a noticeable drop off from their starter Igor Shesterkin who has a +17.4 GSAx.
Picks:
This will be the second time that these teams face off against each other this year. In the first matchup, on November 5th, Edmonton defeated New York 6-5 in OT. The Oilers closed at -162 on the moneyline with the Total being set at 6.0.
EDMONTON OILERS (-125)
The Oilers are desperate for a win right now. The Rangers are in a bad spot and will be playing their third game in four days. The last time these teams played Georgiev got lit up and finished the game with a -2.54 GSAx. Edmonton dominated that game outshooting New York 39-25. If Koskinen can have a decent game, I think the Oilers right the ship and get a much needed win.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
I gave this play out to my premium members earlier this morning and, with it being my only play for today, I decided to also post it for free. I’m currently on a 6-0 run in CFB and NBA and will look to keep that rolling tonight. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Nuggets +4(-110) @ Mavericks–7:40 PM CT
This is a bad travel spot for Dallas, who completed a 5 game road trip with a win in Oklahoma City last night. This is a team that has been on the road(mostly on the West coast) since before Christmas Day; instead of being able to readjust back to life in Dallas, they’ll be right back at it tonight for the second game of a back-to-back. With the Warriors coming up on Wednesday, the Nuggets might not be getting all of Dallas’ attention tonight. While the Nuggets have had an up-and-down season, they enter this game having won 3 in a row. Dallas did welcome Luka Doncic back last night, but he will not be in peak shape for at least a few games. In fact, Dallas has welcomed back quite a few guys off the injury report, which sometimes spells trouble in the short term as the team had to readjust their rotation and move guys out of roles they began to excel in. Either way, the Mavs are not 4 points better than the Nuggets; when you factor in this spot, I think Dallas will be lucky to win this game. I’ll take those 4 points all day.
This is a bad travel spot for Dallas, who completed a 5 game road trip with a win in Oklahoma City last night. This is a team that has been on the road(mostly on the West coast) since before Christmas Day; instead of being able to readjust back to life in Dallas, they’ll be right back at it tonight for the second game of a back-to-back. With the Warriors coming up on Wednesday, the Nuggets might not be getting all of Dallas’ attention tonight. While the Nuggets have had an up-and-down season, they enter this game having won 3 in a row. Dallas did welcome Luka Doncic back last night, but he will not be in peak shape for at least a few games. In fact, Dallas has welcomed back quite a few guys off the injury report, which sometimes spells trouble in the short term as the team had to readjust their rotation and move guys out of roles they began to excel in. Either way, the Mavs are not 4 points better than the Nuggets; when you factor in this spot, I think Dallas will be lucky to win this game. I’ll take those 4 points all day.
Let’s start the week off with a winner!! We are 26-18 (59%) in our last 44 College Basketball plays and 49-36 (58%) overall on the CBB season!! This is my lone CBB play for today.
The Towson Tigers head to Philadelphia tonight to take on the Drexel Dragons at Daskalakis Athletic Center. The Tigers are 9-4 on the year after beating Navy in their last game 69-52 and are riding a three game win streak. The Dragons are 5-5 on the season after beating Coppin State 76-69, however, that was on December 14th. This will be Drexel’s first game back after their last four have been postponed. Towson is 4-2 on the road with the 2 losses to San Francisco and a ranked Ohio State squad. Drexel is an undefeated 3-0 at home this season but has not faced anyone that ranks higher than 307th. Towson enters with the better strength of schedule and are scoring 72.8 points per game on 44% from the field and limit offenses to 64.5 point on 40.5% shooting while Drexel is scoring 75.6 points on 45.8% from the floor and are allowing 72.9 points per game on 45.5% shooting. The Tigers own the 66th best adjusted offensive efficiency and excel beyond the arc as they rank 41st in the nation by shooting 37.1% from three which is where the Dragons struggle the most as they rank 312th in the country by allowing 37.4% from beyond the arc on defense. On the other side, Drexel scores most of their points inside the arc as they shoot 51.7% and rank 104th in the nation but they will be up against the stingy Tigers defense who allows just 46.9% inside the arc and rank 86th in the country. Towson, also, should not have to worry about turnovers too much in this game as the Dragons rank 318th in turnover percentage on defense. I am expecting Towson to expose Drexel’s lack of schedule and lack of game play and take care of business by winning by 4-7 points. Additionally, the Tigers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Take Towson -1.5(play to -2.5)
Monday night Football AFC North Play of the Month with a Powerful 18-1 Database System Headlines along with Another Perfect System NBA 5*Side, NBA Comp Total Below.
The NBA Comp Play for Monday is on the Over in the Utah At New Orleans game at 8:10 eastern. Utah is ranked 1 in scoring and the Pelicans have flown over the total in the last 4 games as they rank 28th defensively. The Game also fits a nice totals system that has gone over 17 of 21 times Playing Over for road favorites in this range that are off a home loss, road favored win and a home win three back and the opponent is off a road loss. The Pelicans just allowed 136 to the Bucks and will have trouble slowing down the Jazz here. Look for a higher scoring game that plays over the total. On Monday night we have a Big 18-1 Power System in the NFL. The AFC North Play of the Month headlines along with a 5* Perfect System NBA Side. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on Twiiter/facebook to Jump on as we start the week big and stay hot. For the NBA Comp play. Go Over the total in the Utah at New Orleans game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Welp, what can I say? The last few days have been AMAZING and I’m very grateful. We’re at over 30 units in the NBA, we went 10-5 in premium NFL picks this weekend, and we’re 4-0 so far in Circa. Our last pick? The Steelers at +3.5. This line has moved to -2 in favor of Pittsburgh after Cleveland got knocked out of playoff contention. Lock and load people– here are a few ways to bet tonight’s final MNF game!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 56-27-1 (66%)
NBA: 122-98 (56%), +30.52 units
Eli and Peyton are back (that alone is enough reason for me to watch this game) and it’s likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final game at Heinz Field. Let’s look at some of the other factors playing into this contest:
The Browns were officially eliminated last night after the Chargers defeated the Broncos Sunday. One has to question how much motivation they’ll have tonight.
Baker Mayfield’s future is very uncertain in Cleveland. The 3rd year QB has had yet another volatile season and despite his overconfidence and many commercial appearances, he was unable to lead an ultra-talented Browns team to the playoffs.
The Steelers defense is as healthy as they’ve ever been all season. TJ Watt, Cameron Hayward, Joe Haden, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all good-to-go. The Steelers also get back tight end Pat Freiermuth tonight.
Kareem Hunt and Malik Johnson are questionable for Cleveland. Three other contributors are also out for MNF.
Statistics may lead you to think that the Pittsburgh defense is mediocre. They’re last in the NFL in rush yards allowed per attempt, they allow 24.7 ppg (23rd), and they allow 6.9 pass yards per attempt (22nd), but don’t let that fool you. The Steelers have been destroyed by injuries throughout the year. When this defense is healthy, they’re elite. Despite all their injuries, the Steelers are ranked 2nd in sack percentage and they’re easily a top 10 defense against the pass when healthy.
The Browns strategy will likely be to run the ball down Pittsburgh’s throat tonight. Baker has been incredibly inconsistent and the Steelers haven’t been good against the run. But the Steelers know that, too. Expect Pittsburgh to force Baker into uncomfortable passing situations and if that’s the case, I trust the Steelers’ defense considerably more. It worked when they beat Cleveland on Halloween.
The Steelers defeated the Browns 15-10 in their first matchup, limiting Baker and their running game and forcing 4 sacks.
The Steelers can still make the playoffs…
Best Bets for MNF:
Steelers -2
Under 42
Teaser: Steelers +5, Total under 49
Chubb over 91.4 rushing yards (K. Hunt might be out and this is a nice hedge on the Browns)
Well we had one HELL of a weekend! NBA picks are on fire right now – we’ve gone 11-3 the last 5 days, and we went 10-5 in NFL picks! I’m sure you’ve heard from my many Twitter posts but we’re also 4-0 in Circa so far, with the Steelers at +3.5 as our final pick. Pittsburgh is up to a 2 point favorite now, so obviously we’re on the right side, but I would still consider taking a Steelers ML or even Steelers at -2. It’s Big Ben’s last game at Heinz Field, for Christ sake, and the Browns are OUT of the playoffs. Lock and load! Here are today’s plays:
NBA Picks:
Grizzlies +7 *
Only 1 unit because this is a better spot for Brooklyn but the Grizzlies are too good to be given 7 points. I’m very high on Memphis, more and more so as the season goes on
Bulls -13 **
This is an ugly line but the Magic fought hard last night in a game they should have won at Boston. It was also an OT game. Now the depleted Magic travel to Chicago to face the surging Bulls? Night night, Orlando
Hawks -5 **
This is up to 5.5 at some books but you should be able to get a 5 at most books. McCollum and Lillard are out and even if one of them were in, the Hawks are the much better team
DEN/DAL over 213 *
All the stars are back and this line is a good 5 points beneath where I have this game – take the over
