Hi all! You might’ve seen my picks already on Twitter, I gave them out for free, but here they are below just in case, along with my NFL premiums. Happy Sunday!
NBA Picks:
HOU/SAC 239 ** These defenses are due positive regression and the offenses are due negative regression. I don’t expect this game to go exactly like the previous one 2 days ago, which means the under should hit.
Jazz -4.5 ** The Jazz are finally mostly healthy and the Nuggets are off a back to back. Denver is 1-5 ATS with no rest. I fully expect the Jazz to wax the Nuggs.
NFL Full Premiums, Wild Card Weekend:
Bengals -5.5 *
Raiders/Bengals over 49 **
Patriots +4 **
Eagles +8.5 **
Eagles ML (sprinkle, up to you what you wager, I suggest nothing big)
Sunday card ;ed by the Wild Card Total of the Year with a Perfect System and a Powerful 6* Side. There is a Powerful NBA Court Crusher, Exclusive NCAAB RPI Scale system and Soccer. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Navy at 1:00 eastern. Navy looks tp bounce back off a 19 point home loss to Colgate and they are a solid defensive team ranked 20th over all and 22nd in rebounding. The Midshipmen are 4-0 Ats on Sundays,7-1 ats off a loss and have covers in 5 of 6 vs a winning team. They are ranked 129 in the RPI Compared to 207th for Boston. The Terriers have failed to cover 12 of 16 on Sundays, 14 of 20 off a spread loss and 7 straight at home vs a team that has a .600 or higher road winning percentage. With the road team on a 6-1 spread run in this series we will go with Navy. On Sunday we have 3 BIG NFL Plays, including a 100% 6* Side and our Wild Card Total of the Year. We also have an NBA Court crusher and our Exclusive NCAAB RPI Scale system plays as well as Afternoon Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to jump on .Jump on now and Cash out. For the NCAAB Play. Make it the Midshipmen. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Guys, I’m hurting. lol. At the Vegas airport trying to make it through. Anyway, I don’t love a lot on the slate today, unfortunately. Which is probably partially because I’m hungover af and haven’t had the time to research as much. Thank you for understanding, these are unique circumstances, obviously.
You got my NFL picks – tread lightly on the NBA today. A lot of injuries and back to backs.
In addition to this free play, I have 3 other CBB plays for today that are reserved for my premium members. With a winner on the Suns last night, my premium plays are now hitting at a 57.5% clip and have netted my members +38.6u(on a 1/1.5/2 unit scale) since September 2021. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CBB(1u): Oklahoma/TCU UNDER 135.5(-110)–3 PM CT
TCU has just the 95th rated offense according to KenPom and pairs that by going at the 272nd fastest pace in the country. Oklahoma goes pretty slow themselves(232nd) and should bring a good defensive effort coming off a bad performance at Texas. Neither one of these teams is particularly great offensively, which is why I can’t wrap my head around why this total is in the mid-130’s. In my mind, I see this as a 64-61 type of game that could really go in either direction. As has come custom in the Big12, this should be a defensive struggle that stays UNDER the total.
*CBB(1u): Florida/South Carolina UNDER 142(-110)–Noon PM CT
Florida started the season very well, but after 3 straight losses, the Gators sit at 9-6 and at a crossroads. The higher scoring the game, the worse Florida has fared. We saw them slow things down against LSU earlier this week which kept them in the game until the finish. South Carolina plays good defense all things considered, and given this is a road game, I don’t think the Gators will be overly efficient offensively. That said, South Carolina’s offense is the worst in the SEC by a pretty sizeable margin; with a borderline Top 25 defense, Florida shouldn’t have too hard of a time getting stops today. This game will be played at a much slower pace than this total suggests; I’ll play this one Under.
*CBB(1u): Florida St/Syracuse UNDER 149.5(-110)–2 PM CT
Syracuse is one of the better offenses in College Basketball, but their defense has failed them virtually all season. However, they did allow only 61 points to Pitt in their last game and get a more manageable matchup than people think today. Florida State has gone on a nice little run in recent years, but this is not one of Lenoard Hamilton’s better teams. This Seminoles team doesn’t excel at shooting the 3, which is the one area of the game that can break Syracuse’s zone defense. These teams played earlier this season, with Syracuse inching out a 63-60 win. This total has stuck at the same number it was in their last matchup, but given how these teams match up, I will absolutely play this one Under the total.
*CBB(1u): Baylor -14(-110) vs Oklahoma State–4 PM CT
This is a nightmare spot for Oklahoma State. Not only will this be the 3rd game in 5 days for Oklahoma State, but all those games have come on the road(West Virginia and Texas Tech were prior). They looked sluggish at Texas Tech on Thursday night and really just don’t have the offensive firepower to match up with a Top 5 team like Baylor. When you throw fatigue into the mix, their defense(which is usually solid) will start to be impacted as well. We are also getting Baylor coming off a loss. I wouldn’t downgrade Baylor for losing a tough road game to Texas Tech; the Big12 really is just the toughest conference in CBB. Given this spot, the Bears can really name their number in this one.
Kentucky’s best win is against number 29 on Kenpom and 16 on Haslametric’s North Carolina which Tennessee beat them quite easily as well. The Vols have the better win vs Arizona, but they have more losses vs upper mid range opponents. Looking at the metrics, both of these teams are pretty solid around the board but Tennessee shoots a lot of 3s while only averaging 32.1% ranking 251st in the nation. The key for me this game is that the Vols are a bad road team shooting only 44% effective FG% which should give Kentucky a big edge being the 6th best rebounding team in the nation. Tennessee ranks 339th away from home on Haslametrics. Over the last 5 games between these 2, the home team has won and covered all 5 with ease.
Take Kentucky -4.5 – 2 stars
Seton Hall vs Marquette +1 O/U 153
Seton Hall is in a compromising spot after that bad Depaul Showing and then going to Marquette on very short rest. Marquette is top 6 in average possession length and loves to run while Seton Hall is as speedy 34th. Marquette is the number two team in momentum right now and they are running on rocket fuel but they will have a disadvantage inside where Seton hall is the taller team and is better at cleaning up the boards. Marquette should dictate the pace here and face pace has been working from them being that they have scored over 82 points in each of their last three games.
We have a huge slate of NHL games today. There was originally 16 games scheduled to take place but, 3 have been postponed so we’re down to 13.
As a hockey fan and NHL gambler, I know most people will not be focused on hockey today. There’s two NFL games going on, with the first one starting at 4:30 PM ET. However, I’m not particularly fond of the early games so hopefully everyone has two TVs.
I received some positive feedback about grading my bets from the day before so I’ll continue to do that. Last night we went 2-0 so I’ll grade both of those bets.
FLORIDA PANTHERS ML (-185)
I released this bet the night before expecting line movement in Florida’s favor and I was correct. The line closed at -210 which shows that even when you lay a high number like I did, it still has some value. It was a no sweat winner with Florida winning 7-1. GRADE: A
COLORADO/ SEATTLE OVER 6.5 (-110)
I spoke about this on the podcast but we’re staring to the totals open at 6.5 for some high powered teams, like Colorado. This line closed at -120/-125 so again we got some closing line value which is always what you’re hoping for. The score was 3-3 early in the 3rd which guaranteed us a win so it wasn’t too much of a sweat either. GRADE: A
Just a reminder my plays will be going premium next week so if you are interested in my NHL plays.
I will be sending out daily picks with detailed breakdowns. In addition to that, I will also be available to chat about the picks and any other games happening that day. As always if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me on any of my social media accounts.
Picks:
BUFFALO/ DETROIT OVER 5.5 (-125)
Aaron Dell is expected to start for the Sabres again tonight with their other starters remaining in protocols. He’s coming off a career night, where he captured his first win in his six starts this season. No one could have seen the night he had and I’m not expecting him to follow up that performance. Buffalo is averaging more Goals For and Goals Against Away with Detroit averaging more Goals For at Home. Detroit’s offense is a slight concern as they have been struggling lately and are coming off a home loss where they were shutout. These two teams have played before and the game did go Under the total at 5.5 but I think with the current matchup we see this game going over. I can see this line moving to 6.0 so I’m going to take it at 5.5 now.
I will likely add more plays as the day progresses but this is the only game I want to lock in overnight. Be sure to follow me on Twitter for all updates.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Saturday 100% Wild Card Play of the Year System goes Early + Late TOP Level Wild Card Total Headlines along with 3 Powerful NCAAB Plays including a rare Executive Level Tier 1. NBA 5* and Soccer. Comp play below. BONUS COMP OVER the total in Bengals vs Raiders game.
The NCAAB Comp play is on USC at 11:00 eastern. The Trojans are 14-1 and 7-0 and 7-0 at home. They are ranked 4th in defensive field goal percentage and 27th in offensive field goal percentage. They host an Oregon team that has won 4 straight most notably an upset win at #3 UCLA on Thursday. The Ducks though are still 1-5 ats on the road and ranked 253rd in defensive field goal percentage. In the Series the favorite has covered 10 of 12 an the host 5 of the lat 6. Look for USC to cool off the Ducks tonight. On Saturday a Massive card is up and led by the NFL Wild Card Play of the Year going early and the Late Top Level total. In hoops we have a Powerful NCAAB Card with an Executive Level TIER Headlining. Thee is another big 5* NBA and Soccer. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter Jump on and cash out all day and night. For the Comp play. Go with USC. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Total for this game has been pushed up to 223.5/ 224 from it’s 221.5 open in some books and it’s understandable as we just saw the Bulls give up 138 points to the Nets on Wednesday. We know the Warriors have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA but now that Draymond Green is out the Warriors have given up 116 and 118 in their L2. Mind you that is against two of the higher scoring teams in the Grizzlies and the Bucks. Tonight they’ll face another offensive power in the Bulls who will surely bring their ‘A’ game off a loss against one of the better teams in the Warriors.
Looking at the Bulls at home off a loss they are 4-2 O/U but average a 1H total of 110. Warriors on the road off a loss are 1-4 O/U with an average 1H total of 112. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a shootout tonight, but we have the Warriors coming in on a 0-5 O/U 1H streak, 2-8 O/U L10. Warriors are also 4th in defending the 3 pt shot where we know the Bulls’ Lavine and Vucevic thrive. We just saw the Warriors struggle against two teams that are bigger and get a lot of points from in the paint. The Bulls are plenty capable of getting inside but will likely try to outshoot the Warriors at least at first, as most teams do.
The concern for the 1H under here is if the Warriors catch fire from beyond the arc as the Bulls are 22nd in the NBA defending the 3 pt shot. We have the Bulls at 5-3-2 1H O/U L10 at home so it’s not a guarantee they’ll be looking to push the pace at first. We know the Warriors would like to slow it down as they are 6-14 1H O/U on the road on the season. I like the Under as I think the Warriors know slowing it down is their best chance at a win and we see both team’s 1H average under this 114.5 number in their respective situation. The under won’t be a big play as we are seeing money come in on the over, but it’s worth a play. Best to wait as close to game time as possible as money is coming in on the over.
509/510 UN 1H Total 114.5 (-105)*
Check out my top plays on my Patreon where I am +26 units since November! All my plays are made public the next day and I do have some nice trends there on some of the analysis.
