We’re into the championship rounds of the Circa Million Contest and we’re within range my friends! Prayers up, thank you so much for your support, happy 2022 and let’s go 5-0 this week! Onto the picks!
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NFL Circa Picks: 52-27-1 (65%)
NBA: 122-98 (56%), +30.52 units
Week 17 Circa Picks:
717/ 718 Weber State at Montana Total Over 142.5**
This total hasn’t moved today, and I understand why as we have two teams that differ in pace with Weber State at 62nd vs. Montana at 257th. But when we look at their opponents, the Grizzlies have faced some of the slowest or lowest-scoring teams in the country with Air Force, Nebraska-Omaha, Idaho State, and Sacramento State. Montana has also seen some of the tougher defensive teams in their non-conference schedule with Oregon and Mississippi State.
In their only conference game against a team that can score in Northern Colorado, that total hit 153, reminiscent of the top half of Big Sky teams. Although Weber State has been inconsistent, make no mistake- they want to run. Some money has come in on Weber today who has been decent on the road, but Montana’s totals have been affected by their early slate of opponents. Regardless of schedule both teams are in the top 60 in scoring, give me the Over!
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LA Rams vs Baltimore +5.5 O/U 46.5
The big question in this game is if the quarterback will be Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntly. I am not sure of that answer but Huntly is a very capable backup and both QBs can put up some points on the scoreboard. Baltimore’s defense is quite bad this year ranking dead last in opponent yards per play at 6.1 while the Rams are the best team in yards per play on offense at 6.1. Baltimore plays a fast paced game ranking number 1 in plays per game. That usually means points points points. Speaking of points, the Rams average over 27 per game and the Ravens average 23.7 even after their QB woes. The Ravens really need this game and will be motivated to put up some points so that they can win to make the playoffs. Rams are still fighting to win their division. I like the over here.
Over 46.5 – 3 stars
Bonus play. Tampa Bay -13 – 2 stars – The Jets are terrible and Tom Brady is still feeling that shut out loss from a few weeks ago.
Refuse to lose teaser! Colts to -1 with the Chargers to -1.5 – 2 stars. Both teams have a lot of motivation here.
Happy new year everyone!
Happy New Year, my people! You already know my CFB angles but I’ll list them here again. We’re on a HOT streak in the NBA, let’s keep rollin’!
Happy New Year everyone! Let’s kick off 2022 with bang and hammer the book. Thanks everyone for the support this past season and look forward to all the great things to come. I can’t believe we only have two regular season weeks left. With teams jockeying for playoff bids and others looking to spoil them. Week 17 will separate the pack, now lets dissect who is here to make a run or spoil the party.
NFL Record through week 16: 130-98 +31.63 Units
WFT +4.5 (-108)
Plain and simple WFT was absolutely embarrassed on the road against their main division rival Dallas Cowboys. They will not let that lackluster, lazy, and inept play they showed on SNF to linger for Sundays bout against the Eagles. Ron Rivera will have this team ready to face another division opponent and you can bet they will not lay down this go around.
Both of these teams will be without their starting RB’s: Antonio Gibson for WFT and Miles Sanders for Philly. Jaret Patterson is a very capable back to take over for WFT, likewise Philly has decent depth with Scott, Howard (questionable), and Gainwell. Taylor Heinicke will get the start this week after his atrocious performance last week. It was bad….really bad, but he is definitely a guy that is not afraid to bounce back after adversity. Adversity is a key term WFT has been dealing with a TON this year. From on field injuries, Covid roster changes, and off field tragedies this team is due for a rally type of game.
The last two weeks the Eagles have been getting the job done in both the win and ATS column. Despite this success they have not shown me a complete game in their eight quarters of play. First go around with WFT mistakes were made, play was sloppy, and allowed the WFT to go up by 10 in the first qtr. Luckily for the Eagles, it was a home game vs a practice squad Qb which wasn’t sustainable for Washington over the course of the game. Last week same situation in the first half against the Giants. Again, bailed out by playing practice squad Qb’s at home. Allowing teams to hang around and get off to slow starts will not trend toward success long-term in this league.
Now do I think the Eagles will win this game? Yes. However, I know the NFC East and have seen this story all too well. This will be a battle and low scoring affair. No way WFT is going to allow Philly to come into their stadium and make it an easy task for them to get closer to securing their playoff bid. Especially after the performance we saw last week. WFT +4.5.
Be sure to check our our Circa Picks posted Sunday morning, currently in 22nd place!
In this week’s Executing the Edge podcast, Nick:
– Recaps the previous week plays
– Breaks down the Gator Bowl, CFB Playoff semifinals and the Rose Bowl with Special Guest Sean Higgs (@real_higgs)
– Breaks down some Saturday CBB games
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We are 26-17 (60%) in our last 43 College Basketball plays and 49-35 (58%) overall on the CBB season!! This is my lone CBB play for today so far.
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The Villanova Wildcats and the Seton Hall Pirates meet this afternoon from the Prudential Center. Villanova enters this one at 8-4 after beating Xavier in their last outing while Seton Hall sits at 9-2 after a loss to Providence. Villanova is 4-5 away from home this season and the Wildcats come in shooting 37.5% from the field and are scoring just 65.9 points per game on the road on the year while the Pirates are undefeated at home this season and are scoring 85.1 points per game on 48.8% shooting at the Prudential Center this year. Defensively, both squads are giving up about 62 points per game. There are contrasting tastes between these two units. Seton Hall (86th in the NCAA in game pace) enjoys things at a faster clip, while Villanova (tenth from the bottom) is content with slowing down the gameplay. The Wildcats enter with the 131st best effective field goal percentage on offense and they will have to deal with the Pirates 11th best defense in the same stat. Also, Villanova scores most of the points from beyond the arc (13th most in the nation) but the Pirates own the 7th best ranking in defending the three. The Wildcats do not use their bench much as they rank 350th in bench minutes while Seton Hall’s bench plays 38% of the time (53rd in the country), so look for the Pirates to drive and try to get the Nova starters into foul trouble. With the Pirates coming off a loss and hosting a ranked team at home, this is a great spot for the Pirates. Additionally, the Wildcats are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games while the Pirates are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take Seton Hall +1.5 (down to ML)
*CFB(1.5u): Baylor +1.5(-110) vs Ole Miss–7:45 PM CT
Baylor is the more physical team up front on both sides of the ball, plain and simple. There’s this idea that Ole Miss is some juggernaut offensively, but did you know that the Rebels haven’t scored more than 31 points in a game since October 9th? Matt Corral is a good QB, but he’s not the level of downfield passer that people think he is. Ole Miss developed into a run heavy team, with 3 RB’s amassing over 100 carries this season. However, that’s exactly where Baylor’s defense thrives the most. Baylor held Texas’ Bijan Robinson to 17 carries/43 yards, BYU’s Ty Allgeir to 15 carries/33 yards, and OU’s Kennedy Brooks to 13 carries/51 yards. Moreover, this Baylor defense also has a knack for forcing turnovers. While Lane Kiffin is sure to have a good game plan ready for tonight, I trust this Baylor defense over the course of the 60 minute game. However, where this game is really won for Baylor is on the other end of the field. Ole Miss had one of the worst defenses in CFB last season; while they improved this year, they can be very leaky in both the run and pass game. Baylor has a pair of very strong RB’s; Abram Smith ran for 1429 yards at 6.1 YPC, while Tristan Ebner added 765 yards at 5.3 YPC. Baylor also has some deep threats on the outside that could give the Ole Miss secondary fits. It’s not decided whether Gerry Bohanon or Blake Shapen will start at QB for the Bears, but I think those guys are somewhat interchangeable; each has played pretty well this season. Ole Miss is the sexy pick, but Baylor is the right side.
