These teams played just 2 nights ago, with the Kings winning on a buzzer beater from Chimezie Metu. The Mavericks controlled that game for 3 of the 4 quarters but were let down by their bench in the 2nd, being outscored 35-13. With that loss fresh on their minds, I expect the better team to bounce back today. Even without their star Luka Doncic and a few key role players still out, the Mavericks are playing pretty solid basketball. The Mavericks hold the major defensive advantage, as Sacramento is borderline horrible on that end of the floor. Kristaps Porzingis should be poised for a big game, and I’d expect Dallas to have a much better night offensively than they did in just a 94 point performance on Wednesday.
Hey everyone! I’d be remiss not to say (and you know I’m too corny not to say) how grateful I am to all of you for your support, belief, and partnership throughout this past year. You all ask such great questions and you’ve never been unfair or abrasive with me, even when we’ve been through rough stretches. I really appreciate that because losing, and especially losing on picks that I give YOU, is what I hate most. Excuse the verbiage here but I get FUCKING AMPED knowing that we’ve won consistently in every sport we bet on. Enjoy the holiday, get wasted, stay safe, and let’s make 2022 an even BIGGER year- LFG!
NBA Picks
Suns -4.5 **
Raptors -6.5 *
Grizzlies -6 **
Blazers/Lakers over 227 *
NYE NBA Parlay:
Suns – Lakers – Grizzlies – Raptors: 1.5 units to win 4.7
Cancelled Dec. 31 – Gator Bowl or Tax Slayer, Jacksonville, Fla.: Texas A&M vs. Wake Forest, ESPN, 11 a.m.
Dec. 31 – Sun Bowl Tony the Tiger, El Paso, Tex.: Miami (Fla.) vs. Washington State -7 O/U 57.5, CBS, 12:30 p.m.
Motivation: Central Michigan – Medium High – They were screwed a bit but will want to beat the Pac 12. Washington State – Medium Low – Not exactly like beating Miami here but at least they get to play.
Injuries/Hold outs: None
SOS: Central Michigan’s is 101st and Washington State’s is 44th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Jim McElwain, Central Michigan, 2-2 and Washington State’s Jake Dickert N/A
Metrics: If you take out the SOS, these teams are pretty equal. Both about 50th in offensive success rate and both are about .3 net yards per play. Central Michigan is 39th in EPA margin while Washington State is 78th but schedule makes all the difference. Wash State should be able to find some success passing the ball as Central Michigan ranks 96th in opponent Pass EPA.
Decision: I like the over here. Central Michigan is a good defense but only from the perspective of playing the Mac. Washington State should be able to find the end zone and they scored over 30 points 5 of their last 7 games. Central Michigan ranks 28th in Tempo and they average 33 points per game themselves.
Motivation: Alabama – High – Playoffs and Cincinnati – High – Playoffs.
Injuries/Hold outs: Alabama wide receiver John Metchie, who led the team with 96 receptions, will not suit up in the College Football Playoff semifinal due to an ACL injury suffered in the SEC Championship Game.
SOS: 82nd for Cincinnati and 7th for Alabama.
Coach Bowl ATS: Luke Fickell, Cincinnati, 2-2, and Nick Saban, Alabama, 10-7
Metrics: Cincinnati has a .6 net yards per play advantage over Alabama but the SOS is a big difference. Alabama has the 5 star athletes. Cinci is number 3 in EPA Margin while Alabama is number 4. Cincinnati averages 5.4 yards per rush but Alabama only allows 2.5 yards per rush in a much harder conference. Cincinnati might be able to throw the ball a little bit tho. They use a lot of deception and average 8.8 yards per attempt while Alabama gives up 7 and ranks 41st in opponent pass EPA. So why the Big spread? Well Bryce young is an absolute beast and he signal handidly beat Georgia with great decision making, his fast speed and powerful arm. My power ratings have Alabama -8 here.
Decision: We are going to take the Bearcats plus the points for 3 reasons here. 1st is that Alabamas top WR John Mechie is out for the season from the Georgia game and only Jameson Williams has over 330 receiving yards on the whole team. Number 2, Alabama sometimes plays down to their competition as we have seen with Florida, A&M, LSU and Auburn. Finally, number 3, this very same Cincinnati team already faced an elite group of talent last year against Georgia in their bowl game and they should have won it minus some dumb coaching mistakes by Luke Fickel. I think that if Cinci is up at half, you will have some buy back/middle options as well.
Cincinnati +14 – 3 stars and sprinkle
Canceled – Dec. 31 – Arizona Bowl, Tucson, Ariz.: Boise State vs. Central Michigan, 4:30 p.m.
Boise State – ML – Playing a MAC team in Tucson doesn’t sound so appealing.
Central Michigan – MH – Playing Boise State isn’t bad at all.
Motivation: Michigan – High – Playoffs Georgia – High – Playoffs
Injuries/Hold outs: None
SOS: Michigan 31st and Georgia 35th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan, 3-4 and Kirby Smart, Georgia, 5-2.
Metrics: Michigan is number 6 in EPA margin and Georgia is number 1. My power ratings have Georgia -5.25. Believe it or not, Georgia and Michigan only rank 42nd and 61st in adjusted line yards on defense. Neither team has a great stuff rate with Georgia at 43rd and Michigan at a terrible 109th. In saying that, Michigan is the better rushing team ranking 16th in Rush EPA while Georgia ranks 73rd. Georgia does have a massive 1.2 net yard per play advantage over Michigan but I also think that they got to play a lot of cake teams while Michigan’s opponents were pretty stout for the most part.
Decision: Gotta go with Michigan here. I know that Georgia has been big and bad all year but Stetson Bennet is a much better game manager than a come back quarterback. If Georgia is down this game, I could see him struggling to bet back into the game. If Georgia is winning my Margin is where Kirby Smart dials up some plays to throw Michigan off balance where they may expecting run. This is why Bennet ranks number 4 in pass EPA in the first place at only 64% completion percentage. I think live betting the team that is winning in the middle of the second quarter might be the best bet.
Michigan +8 – 2 star and sprinkle and live bet the team that is winning in the middle of the second quarter.
Jan. 1 – Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla.: Arkansas vs. Penn State +1.5 O/U 48.5, ESPN2, noon
Motivation: Arkansas – High – The team did great this year and will want to beat Big 10. Penn State – Medium – I think this team had higher asperations and the lost some kids to prep for the draft.
Injury/Hold outs: Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry, who left to take over as head coach at Virginia Tech. Penn State’s two leading tacklers, linebackers Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks opt out. Safety Jaquan Brisker has opted out as well. WR Jahan Dotson and defensive end Arnold Ebiketie opt out as well. Arkansas top WR Treylon Burks, but he has declared for the NFL Draft. The Razorbacks also lost defensive end Tre Williams, who has declared for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Arkansas 9th and Penn State 12th
Coach Bowl ATS: James Franklin, Penn State, 6-3, and Arkansas N/A
Metrics: Arkansas has about a .35 net yard per play advantage over Penn state. Arkansas is 25th in EPA Margin while Penn State is 60th. We also have to remember that Sean Clifford wasn’t able to participate in some of these games. Penn State has just a medium offense and a good Defense. Arkansas has a good offense and a medium defense. My power ratings have Penn State -2.5.
Decision: The SEC has been pretty bad so far in bowl games. Both teams are missing their share of players. I will lean Penn State and hope for a better number. I also lean under.
Jan. 1 – Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, Ariz: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State +2 O/U 45, ESPN, 1 p.m.
Motivation: Notre Dame – Medium – Continuity with their defensive coordinator becoming coach yet was still kinda weird. Oklahoma State – Medium Low – They thought they might get into the playoffs.
Injuries/Hold outs: Newly-appointed head coach Marcus Freeman will take over the Irish. Safety Isaiah Hamilton and running back Kyren Williams will skip the Fiesta Bowl to prepare for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Notre Dame is 41st and Oklahoma State is 13th. These are the 2 most incomparable schedules in all the bowl matchups in my opinion.
Coach Bowl ATS: Notre Dame, Marcus Freeman N/A and Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State, 9-6.
Metrics: Both teams are equal at about 1 net yard per play. Notre Dame lost their coach but some say he was an A-hole anyways. Notre Dame is 10th in EPA margin while Oklahoma State is 16th. The Irish have the better offense and the Pokes have the better defense. My power ratings have Notre Dame -2.25 so I am right on the number. My concern for the Irish is that their offensive line ranks 108th in sack rate while Oklahoma State’s defensive line ranks 4th.
Motivation: Iowa – Medium High – losing the Big 10 championship is standard for this team but so is kicking ass in bowl games. Kentucky – Medium High – I think they will try and beat a team with no offense here.
Injuries/Hold outs: Hawkeyes running back Tyler Goodson has declared for the draft and will skip the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky’s number 2 WR Josh Ali was involved in a car accident and won’t be able to play.
SOS: Iowa 22nd and Kentucky 68th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Kirk Ferentz, Iowa, 10-5 and Mark Stoops, Kentucky, 3-2
Metrics: Kentucky has a massive 1.3 net yards per play over Iowa but Iowa has had the much harder schedule. Iowa has a terrible offense ranking 120th in EPA while Kentucky ranks 29th but Kentucky’s defense ranks 46th and Iowa ranks 12th. Iowa bad offense, great defense and Kentucky good offense and ok defense. Neither defense really gets to the quarterback which might be an issue.
Decision: You can’t ignore Kirk Ferentz’s ATS bowl success. I also think SEC is overrated some. I’ll play Iowa at 3 but will hope for a 3.5
Iowa +3 – 2 stars
Jan. 1 – Rose Bowl, Pasadena, Calif.: Ohio State vs. Utah +4 O/U 64, ESPN, 5 p.m.
Motivation: Ohio State – Medium – Ryan Day will get his team up but they had playoff aspirations even with some of the players holding out. Utah – Medium High – They won the Pac 12 and this would be the icing on the cake.
Injuries/Hold outs: Ohio State’s Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Nicholas Petit-Frere, and Haskell Garrett will not play in the Rose Bowl against Utah. Quite Possibly more to come.
SOS: Ohio State is 21st and Utah is 34th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Ryan Day, Ohio State, 1-2 and Kyle Whittingham, Utah, 9-5.
Metrics: Ohio State has a big 1.1 net yard per play advantage over Utah. Ohio State is number 2 in EPA margin and Utah is number 7. Ohio State’s strength has been passing the ball at 9.8 yards per attempt while Utah is 64thi in opponent pass EPA. Utah is number 1 in rush EPA while Ohio State ranks 26th in opponent rush EPA. My power ratings have Ohio State -8 but Jeff Sagarin’s recency power rating just has Ohio State at 91 and Utah at 90.
Decision: Ohio State losing their top 2 wide receivers and best offensive tackle is massive. Cameron Rising has been a fantastic QB for Utah and he has been very dangerous running the ball as well. Utah should be able to run against Ohio State but I wouldn’t doubt it if Ohio State can rush the ball some themselves being that Utah only ranks 53rd in opponent rush EPA. I think we have a close game here and I have to take the points. I took 6 earlier but still like it over the 3.
Utah +4 – 2 stars.
Jan. 1 – Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA: Baylor vs. Mississippi -1 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 8:45 p.m.
Motivation: Baylor – Medium – They won the Big 12 and should want to show up here. Ole Miss – Medium High – Playing for Matt Corral’s draft stock.
Injuries/Hold outs: None but Gerry Bohannon should be back for Baylor
SOS: Baylor 36th and Ole Miss 24th
Coach Bowl ATS: Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss, 2-2 and Dave Aranda, Baylor, N/A
Metrics: My power ratings has Baylor -1.25. Ole miss is a fast pace air raid offense type team but their defense is very suspect ranking 104th in success rate. Ole Miss at least can also run the ball ranking 21st in rush EPA. The big issue is that metrically, Baylor has a massive rushing advantage ranking 33rd in rush EPA and has a massive 5.2 rushing yards per attempt. They will win this game on the ground and by playing great D.
I like Baylor here. I think that Bohannon will take out his aggression in missing his Big 12 championship here vs Ole Miss.
Baylor +1 – 2.5 stars
Jan. 4 – Texas Bowl, Houston TX: Kansas State vs. LSU +3.5 O/U 48, ESPN, 9 p.m.
Motivation: Kansas State – Medium High – Will want to beat an SEC team. LSU – Low to very low – Kids could sit out and Coach O is gone. QB Max Johnson is transferring.
Injuries/Hold outs: *Kansas State expects quarterback Skylar Thompson, who missed the regular-season finale with an injury, to be back for the Texas Bowl.LSU has major questions at quarterback after Max Johnson recently announced he will enter the transfer portal. Fellow QB Myles Brennan did the same back in November but announced he would be staying in Baton Rouge. Brennan is not expected to play, leaving only one scholarship quarterback on the roster in true freshman Garrett Nussmeier, who has already used up his allowable games to maintain his redshirt. Quarterback questions remain for LSU, which could start a true freshman, walk-on, or converted wide receiver. It appears that LSU offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game during the transition from Ed Orgeron to Brian Kelly. A few assistants have also departed since the end of the regular season. LSU wide receiver Trey Palmer has entered the transfer portal. Meanwhile, linebacker Damone Clark and defensive lineman Neil Farrell Jr. have opted out.
SOS: LSU 3th and Kansas State 28th
Coach Bowl ATS: LSU, Brad Davis, N/A and Chris Klieman, Kansas State, 0-1.
Metrics: Kansas State is 48th in EPA margin while LSU is 73rd. Kansas State has a .9 yards per play margin over LSU.
Decision: LSU is a total mess and I do not understand why they are even playing this bowl. Bet Kansas State Alt Line.
Kansas State -3.5 – 3 stars
*Per the Action Network: https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/2021-college-football-tracker-bowl-opt-outs-injuries-coaching-changes
Special thanks for injury information from The Action Network
Since returning from the Christmas/ COVID break the NHL has been absolutely wild. Some teams have played multiple games, while others are still looking to play their first.
Several teams continue to be postponed due to outbreaks while others have a green light. Like most other sports currently, the NHL is a mess and continues to fail to provide a reasonable solution to the problem.
While most teams/ players/ coaches are affected by this first hand, NHL gamblers are also suffering not knowing the lineups for the night. It’s incredibly hard to place bets early thinking you have value only to find out a team has called up their third string goalie to make his NHL debut.
However, just like the NHL, we roll on and look to find winners. We have a great game this afternoon between the Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights as they battle it out for 1st Place in the Pacific Division.
Anaheim looks for revenge on the Golden Knights as Vegas has bested by them in both of their matchups this season.
Anaheim Ducks @ Vegas Golden Knights
Time: 3:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Anaheim Ducks: 17-9-7, 2nd Pacific (7-5-3 Away)
Vegas Golden Knights: 21-12-0, 1st Pacific (10-7-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Anaheim Ducks
+152
+155
+1.5 (-150)
o6.0 (-105)
Vegas Golden Knights
-169
-195
-1.5 (+130)
u6.0 (-115)
Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Anaheim’s last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Vegas’ last 5 games.
Vegas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
Preview:
Vegas line makers, like us, are also affected by the unpredictability of lineups. This game and particular highlights that. I’ve seen several books list the Total at 6 (-105/-115) while others have it listed at 6 (+105/-125).
Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks returned to action on Wednesday night losing 2-1 to the Vancouver Canucks in OT. Anaheim held their own against a red hot Vancouver team that rattled off their 7th win in a row under new head coach Bruce Boudreau.
Anaheim averages 2.17 Goals For Per 60 on offense with a -3.29 Goals For Above Expected. They haven’t been great up front and the loss of Trevor Zegras will certainly not help as he’s still in quarantine. One bright spot of Anaheim’s offense has been their ability to capitalize on the man advantage which ranks 5th. The Ducks will also be without one of their main forwards Cam Fowler, who was injured in their last game.
Defensively, the Ducks are slightly above the league average with a 2.28 Goals Against Per 60. They have a 0.36 Goals Against Above Expected differential which again, ranks slightly above the league average.
Given the day of rest they had, it’s likely that John Gibson will start in net. Gibson has a -2.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) on the year. Despite the low GSAx, he has been better as of late with the only outlier coming in the game vs Arizona. Giving up 6 goals to Arizona is always slightly concerning as they are the worst team in the league but maybe it was an off night.
Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas returned to the ice on Tuesday defeating the Los Angeles Kings 6-3. The Golden Knights jumped out to an early lead and never looked back.
This team has been red hot as of late winning their last 6 of 7 games. Their only loss came at the hands of the back to back Stanley Cup Champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. During this seven game stretch they have outscored opponents 31-20.
The Golden Knights have one of the best Goals For Per 60 averaging 3.04. However, Vegas will be without two of their top forwards tonight, Max Pacioretty and Marc Stone. The Golden Knights lead the league with 81 goals on the season behind Chandler Stephenson and Riley Smith. Given the amount of goals Vegas has scored, they also have one of the league best Goals For Above Expected with a 8.28.
On the back end of things, Vegas hasn’t been as great as their offense. They have relied on the guys up front to handle the majority of the work. That being said, the Golden Knights do have a -5.3 Goals Against Above Expected, which is solid. They’re also only averaging 2.4 Goals Against Per 60. Good news for Vegas is that they will likely get Alex Pietrangelo back who is coming off the COVID protocol list.
When they get Jack Eichel, Max Pacioretty, Marc Stone back they will be a Stanley Cup contender. They’re also currently without starting goaltender Robin Lehner who is day to day with a lower body injury. The Golden Knights are currently listed at +800 to win the Stanley Cup only behind the Colorado Avalanche (+550).
Speaking of Robin Lehner, he may return tonight but has not been confirmed. Personally, I doubt it. Laurent Brossolt has been starting in his place and will most likely get the nod. He has a +0.6 GSAx on the season but has allowed 3 or more goals in his last two starts.
Picks:
UNDER 6.0 (-115)
In the previous two meetings between these teams, the total has gone way over in both games. However, they both have completely different lineups tonight. Both teams are without several of their top scorers. Anaheim is good enough defensively to withstand the attack from the Golden Knights forwards. Offensively, the Ducks lack the fire power to generate as many chances as they had previously. While Vegas does have the ability to put up goals, Gibson also has the ability to stop them. Given Brossoit’s struggles this season, it is an issue but, he did look better in his last outing posting a +0.37 GSAx.
Believe me, I understand that coming off break most games have been going over but from all of my analysis I think this one stays under.
Other Plays for Tonight:
WASHINGTON/ DETROIT OVER 5.5 (-115)
When looking at this game, I certainly expected the Total to be listed at 6, which makes me slightly nervous. The Caps are coming off a 5-3 victory over Nashville on Wednesday, while the Red Wings return to the ice for the first time after break. Washington has the ability to score especially against a struggling Detroit defense. One positive for the Red Wings offensively is that they do average more goals at home.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
*CFB(1.5u): Michigan/Georgia UNDER 45.5(-110)–6:30 PM CT
Georgia deploys a run heavy attack offensively and is in no hurry to push the pace(120th in plays/game). QB Stetson Bennett did average over 10 Y/A throwing the ball this season, but I doubt that will translate against this Michigan secondary. Georgia’s strong suit is not their WR unit(their leading WR is a true freshman TE). While Georgia is fantastic on their OL, Michigan has a pair on nasty edge rushers who caused havoc against big, physical Big10 OL’s all season long. Bennett can improvise with his feet, but he also hasn’t shown the ability to make plays down the stretch in these types of games. I envision Michigan having an even harder time offensively in this game. Much like Georgia, the Wolverines like to run the ball a lot. Hassan Haskins is their high usage back, but he did fail to eclipse that 5 YPC mark this season. Freshman Blake Corum is much more of a home run hitter at that position, but let’s not forget what level of defense they’re going up against. Georgia allowed less than 10 PPG this season and recorded 5 shutouts along the way. They are marvelous at all 3 levels. Alabama had one really good quarter against them, but if you think Michigan QB Cade McNamara is capable of replicating Bryce Young, you’re crazy. Michigan lost their best outside threat in Game 1 this season and are not great on the outside. Michigan doesn’t veer away from their run-heavy game plan very often, and I don’t think they want to trust McNamara(8 Y/A this season) to try to beat Georgia through the air. Jim Harbaugh understands that this is going to be a rock fight type of game, and I think he trusts his defense enough to enter that battle. I hope nothing fluky happens early because I truly think this play on the Under has a chance to be a no-sweat winner. This game should play out similarly to Georgia’s 10-3 victory earlier in the season against Clemson, where the only TD came on a pick 6. I’ll play the Under for 1.5u.
*CFB(1u): Cincinnati TT UNDER 21.5(-120) vs Alabama–2:30 PM CT
I want to isolate the area of this game that I have the best read on. For instance, I could see Cincinnati’s defense having success against Alabama or Bryce Young and that Bama passing attack running wild. It’s a true toss up for me. However, what I DO feel best about is how this Alabama defense is going to match up with Cincy. I’ve been higher than most on this Bama defensively all season, and the way they closed the season out with a punishing performance against Georgia was no real surprise to me. What makes me so confident in this Tide defense is their front 7. Will Anderson is an absolute animal off the edge, and I can assure you nobody on Cincinnati’s O-Line saw anybody near his talent level this season. The Bama LB’s are also sure-stoppers against a standard run game like the one Cincinnati deploys. Cincinnati QB Desmond Ridder is a 4th year starter with a ton of pedigree entering this matchup, but I don’t know if that’s going to translate into a great day for him. This Bearcat offense runs at one of the slowest paces in the country and converts just 41% of the time on 3rd down(not horrible, but not the level you’d like when stepping up in competition). RB Jaylan Ford’s numbers are inflated by a few big runs; for much of the season, he was held in check. He’s also a former member of this Alabama team and somebody Nick Saban certainly knows how to prepare for. Alabama’s one weakness defensively might be their secondary, but I wouldn’t call Ridder some vaunted passer. Averaging less than 250 yards/game through the air, Ridder has much of his success working off of an established running game, something I don’t think he’ll have the luxury working with in this game. Ridder is a threat with his legs, but Alabama did a great job of containing dual-threat QB’s in the run game this season. This defense played really well down the stretch of this season, and Nick Saban always seems to have this unit humming for the CFP Semifinals. Catching over 21 points, I’ll play the Cincinnati TT UNDER 21.5 for 1u.
*CFB Teaser(1u): Georgia -1.5 vs Michigan AND UNDER 51.5(-110)–6:30 PM CT
You catch my drift on the Under with the above explanation. As for the side, I think Georgia finds a way to win this game. This is a program that’s been on the brink of a championship for nearly 5 seasons; Michigan wasn’t really expected to be here. Georgia has had more consistent success in their ground game(main 2 RB’s over 5.3 YPC), and Michigan isn’t exactly great in that area. Remember, MSU’s Kenneth Walker III ran for 197 yards(8.6 YPC) and 5 TD’s against these Wolverines this season. UGA’s QB’s(whether it be Bennett or JT Daniels who finishes this game) have had more success in the vertical passing game than McNamara, and it’s really not even close. Georgia won by an average of 30 PPG this season and were historically good defensively; one bad quarter against a team like Alabama doesn’t erase that. I like Georgia to pull this one out and rematch with Alabama in the National title game.
New Years Eve Card has our Bowl Game Of The Year in Late Afternoon action long with a big Orange Bowl Play, NBA and NCAAB. Sun Bowl Comp play below.
The Sun Bowl Comp Play is on Washington St at high noon. The Cougars have had a nice season considering the coaching carousel. They get Central Michigan here who agreed to play the game and ended up on a 4 game win streak. The Cougars just polished off Washington by nearly 40 points and they have covered 8 of 9 and the last 4 after allowing 275 or less yards. The Chippewas are 0-4 ats as a bowl dog and 0-7 ats after allowing less than a hundred on the ground. To tie in a nice bowl system. Bowl favorites off a road favored win scoring 37 or more and a prior home win scoring 34 or more have covered over 85% long term vs a team off a home win. With MAC Teams struggling again this bowl season losing 5 of 7 we will go with Washington St. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
On this episode of “The Deeper Dive”, Michael Fordham breaks down each of the College Football Playoff matchups for New Year’s Eve as well as the 3 NY6 bowl games on New Year’s Day.
Tarleton State is definitely a surprise team so far this year and a public darling early in the season, much like Dixie State was last year when they made their jump into D-I. We’ve seen this line drop from it’s -3.5 open, and the line moves have been sharp thus far in college basketball, so this is a small play for me. I understand the move as we have a clash of tempo here with the low scoring Texans coming in against a high paced Trailblazer squad, and it’s hard to lay points with the slower team. And Tarleton has yet to beat a higher paced squad.
However, when we look at strength of schedule, the Texans have played far tougher opponents (136th vs 331st). Dixie State does have the better record but we’ve seen the Texans find ways to slow down the likes of Gonzaga and Michigan on the road. When looking at low scoring road favorites, I also look for teams that can get their points at the charity stripe, and the Texans have a clear advantage at 52nd versus the Blazers’ 162nd free throw % rank. This team is disciplined and will not be intimidated on the road. I’m laying with Tarleton coming out with something to prove in their WAC debut!
Check more of my plays out at my Patreon as we have had a great December, overall +13 units!
A good 3-1 night in the NBA put us at 7-1 the past 2 days, not too shabby. Only 1 play I like today – if I find more value (as I sometimes do later in the day after more consideration), I will email. Lots of NFL action below – Onto the picks!
NBA Picks:
Warriors -4.5 ** Time for the Warriors to answer after that abysmal performance against Denver the other night. Sucks that Draymond is out but if they shoot closer to their average from beyond the arc, this one shouldn’t be close.
NFL Week 17:
Bills -14.5 **
Bears -6 *
Chiefs/Bengals over 50 **
Dolphins/Titans under 41 ** (given earlier this week)
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from @MajorWager is back to discuss some massive bowl games and playoffs! First, Kiev talks about the year and gives thanks to everyone for being such great people and wonderful listeners. Then, Brian comes on and we get into the games, leans and FREE PLAYS throughout the rest of the bowl season as well as one in the NFL. Next, Kiev discusses NFL week 17 with some game break downs and some more free picks. Our refuse to lose teaser will be decided upon a later date and sent via article due to too much Covid in the NFL. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
NFL: Detroit vs Seattle – Kansas City vs Cincinnati and more!
NCAA: Michigan vs Georgia – Utah vs Ohio State and more!
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