On yesterdays episode of Expected Bets For, we went 1-1-1. It was a crazy night in the NHL so getting out without losing money was a positive. While I’d obviously love to profit every night, you can’t be mad when you end the night without any loss. If you did miss the episode, you can check it out here.

One topic we covered was grading your own bets, so I’ll briefly breakdown my bets and grades.

1. Nikita Kucherov Over 0.5 Points on the Power Play (-110) – CASH
   1. While the odds weren’t exactly what I was looking for, only laying -110 isn’t awful. The Lightning were going up against the worst Penalty Kill in the League. Their Power Play runs though him so if they were to score, he was likely to get a point. Tampa’s Power Play will only continue to get better so I’ll take the easy winner that cashed early in the 1st Period. GRADE: B+
2. BUF/ NSH Over 6.0 (+100)
   1. On the Podcast, we both expected Nashville’s backup, David Rittich to start. However, Juuse Saros did end up starting and was shockingly the goalie who struggled tonight. Aaron Dell was announced the day before as the starter for Buffalo and had his best game of the season. I figured if Buffalo was able to score 1-2, let alone 3 the over should hit. That was not the case tonight, it’s been a wild few days in the NHL and where I thought I saw value at +100, I should have been more aware as Dell was already factored into the equation. GRADE: C+
3. CAR/ CBJ Over 6.0 (-120)
   1. No one, I mean no one could have seen the struggling Columbus Blue Jackets come into Carolina and win 6-0. First of all, just getting the push was a miracle. Columbus scored 4 in the 3rd just to get us to 6. I have a hard time grading myself here because again, tonight in the NHL was so wild and unpredictable. CBJ had an xG of 3.84 and CAR had an xG of 2.99 for a total of 6.83. GRADE: B

Just a reminder my plays will be going premium next week so if you are interested in my NHL plays. I will post the link below.

I will be sending out daily picks with detailed breakdowns. In addition to that, I will also be available to chat about the picks and any other games happening that day. As always if you have any questions, please feel free to contact me on any of my social media accounts.

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We only have three games tonight with some better matchups. So lets get into these games and break down some matchups.

Dallas Stars @ Florida Panthers

• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• TV Coverage: ESPN+
• Dallas Stars: 18-13-2, 5th Central 4-10-1 Away)
• Florida Panthers: 24-7-5, 1st Atlantic (19-3-0 Home)

Trends:

• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas’ last 18 games.
• Dallas are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
• Dallas are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Florida’s last 7 games.
• Florida are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.

Preview:

This will be the second time that these two teams meet in past two weeks. The Stars upset Florida 6-5 in a Shootout, on January 6th. Both of these teams have been extremely dominant at home so now Florida will get there chance to even up the series tonight. The Panthers had a better expected goals in that matchup 4.55 to 3.53. It was an off night for Bobrovsky who finished with a -1.47 GSAx.

Dallas Stars

The Dallas Stars haven’t been great on the year but, have been playing some great hockey as of late. Since the break, they are 3-1 with their only loss coming at St. Louis on Sunday.

Like I had mentioned before, it seems as though Dallas is a completely different team at home. They’re averaging 3.61 Goals For at Home while only averaging 2.00 Goals For Away. In addition to their lack of offensive production on the road, they also average 3.40 Goals Against Away compared to just 2.44 at Home.

On the season, the Stars haven’t been great offensively with a -6.19 Goals For Above Expected. They have one of the lowest Goals For Per 60 averaging just 2.1 which ranks 7th worst. Despite the Stars offensive woes, they are generating 60 High Danger Shots For which ranks near the middle of the league. One positive for Dallas has been their Power Play which currently ranks 6th converting at a percentage of 26.3%.

In terms of defense, Dallas enters this game with a -2 Goals Against Above Expected. This is just an average ranking which kind of sums of the Dallas defense unit. They’re giving up an average of 2.17 Goals Against Per 60, which again is middle of the pack. One area of concern for this unit is their Penalty Kill ranking 20th. A bright spot for the Stars has been their ability to limit High Danger Shots Against giving up just 49 on the year. If Dallas is going to win this game, they are going to have to keep limiting these chances as the Panthers have generated the 2nd most High Danger Shots For.

If you’re looking for a player prop in this game look at targeting Joe Pavelski. He’s recorded at least one point in the last seven games and is coming off a five point night against Seattle (2 G, 3 A). James Robinson has also recorded a point in the last 7 games and may offer some more value.

Dallas will be without starting goaltender Braden Holtby tonight who remains in COVID protocol. Since he’s out Jake Oettinger will get the start in net for the Stars. He’s actually been better than Holtby on the year with a +5.5 Goals Saved Above Expected. His last start was on Jan 12 vs Seattle where he allowed 2 goals against. He did not play in their previous matchup vs Florida so this will be the first time he see’s this high powered offense.

The Stars will be without Right Winger Denis Gurianov and Alexander Radulov tonight. Gurianov recorded three points in the previous matchup between these two teams.

Florida Panthers

Just like the Dallas Stars, Florida has been great since the break going 6-1. Just like I mentioned above, their only loss came at the hands of Dallas in a shootout. In their 7 games following the break the Panthers have outscored their opponents 38 to 21.

Florida is averaging 4.45 Goals For at Home compared to just 3.07 Goals For Away (+1.38). In terms of Goals Against, there’s not that drastic of a difference as they average 2.82 at Home compared to 3.07 Away.

This Panthers team generates offense like no other team in the NHL. They have a 93.39 Expected Goals For which ranks 1st. Even with generating scoring chances at the rate they do, they have a positive Goals For Above Expected with a +3.61. Florida’s Power Play has been an area of concern for them as they rank 19th. The Panther’s do like to control the pace and Dallas is significantly better on faceoffs which could limit their puck possession.

One player prop to target is Jonathan Huberdeau to record an assist. He has 11 assists in the last 6 games and did record one the last time they played Dallas. Aaron Ekblad also tied his season high in points last time they played the Stars recording 3 assists.

Florida is a team that relies heavily on their offense to win games. They’re defense has not been great this year with a 2.36 Goals Against Per 60. I may be over reacting a bit given how good they’ve been up front but, their not built like Carolina who is solid across the board. Despite their mediocre goals against average, they do have a -5.52 Goals Against Above Expected. This number is definitely inflated given the season that their starting goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is having.

Speaking of Bobrovsky, he is expected to get the start in net tonight. He has a +15.8 Goals Against Above Expected which is 5th best in the NHL. He did start for the Panthers last time they played Dallas and did give up 5 goals finishing with a -1.47 GSAx.

The Panthers will get back Patric Hornqvist tonight who has recently exited COVID protocols. He had a goal and an assist the last time these teams played.

Picks:

• FLORIDA PANTHERS (-185)
  • I rarely, if at all lay a number as large as this. However, that being said I love Florida in this matchup. The Panthers are a significantly better team, especially at home. They also have a revenge angle which is something that does need to be considered. I know the NHL has been crazy as of late but even at -185 I think Florida has value. This number will likely continue to rise a bit, maybe not a lot, but my guess is that it’ll be around -195/-200 around puck drop.

Other Plays For Tonight:

• ARIZONA/ COLORADO OVER 6.5 (-110)
  • This is a numbers play for me, this line will likely shift as well so I’m going to lock it in at -110 overnight.

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.