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Week 16 NFL Free Plays

By
Steve Norman
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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone!  My apologies as this will not be my normal write up I do weekly.  Just insanely busy with the holiday hustle and entertaining family.  Here are 3 free plays I like this week!  Also, make sure to cheer Chris and I on our Circa plays: Currently in 21st place!

Nfl record through week 15: 129-89 +35.53 units

PHIL -10 (-110)

  • Hopefully philly used that 1st qtr against WFT to get back to form
  • Run game is becoming dominate…. Sanders and Howard going can wear down Defenses
  • Feels like a tough spot for Fromm to come in against a team looking for revenge from last time they let down offensively
  • This game is 10 for a reason… and taking these big spreads have been working more than not…
  • Philly is in playoff mode now….every game matters

Jax +1 (+100)

  • Urban fired late in the week last week , a ton of turn over quickly
  • Week to prepare now with new regime….I like jax to show out now
  • Lawrence will certainly have a little more chip on his shoulder going against the number 2 over all pick in wilson
  • Jets game looked cute last week….. more of Tua being awful throwing a pick six to allow them to cover
  • These are two bad teams….
  • Still like the narrative Jax bounces back after all of the urban news to get a W
  • Not really a better spot than against the NYJ

BUF +2 (-110)

  • Going to be a completely different game than we saw in the first match up
  • We know the secret….get a lead and pats will have a hard time coming back
  • Bills are missing Beasley and Davis, Diggs and Sanders will step up
  • This is a passing league and the Bills certainly have the edge here
  • Bills make a statement here….
  • They need to win especially for AFC tie breakers records for wild card position
  • Josh Allen wills his team to win, he hasn’t been in MVP Talks in the past for no reason

NBA Christmas Day Free Pick: Nets at Lakers

By
Chris R. Farley
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Lebron James on the court

 

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all! Here’s a free pick today while you open up presents, get fat and drink your ass off– I’m not the only one doing that, right? Let’s go!

For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 49-25-1 (66%)
NBA: 105-90 (54%), +16.12 units

Lakers -1.5 (-110), 2 units: I expect this line to rise more before tipoff. LeBron James called his team out after a BAD double-digit loss to the Spurs on Thursday night, saying, “We have no chemistry with any lineup, from the simple fact that we literally haven’t logged enough minutes. It’s the truth. What is our starting lineup besides me Russ and AD? We don’t know.” And it’s evident. The Lakers often look disjointed with their new roster, a roster that’s seen the most turnover of any franchise before the start of the 2022 season. Only 3 players from last year’s roster returned leading up to the opener, and now whispers of trading Russell Westbrook have been circulating for weeks. Russ, the enigmatic journeyman who might be the most explosive pound-for-pound athlete in the NBA, just doesn’t look like the right fit in LA. When LeBron replaces Russ as point guard, the Lakers are fluid. The ball is passed around with efficacy and usually they find an open shot. With Russ? Not so much. Russ loves to fly down the court and dish the ball out with ferocity, a style of basketball that stands contrary to how LAL found success in the recent past. The NBA’s #1 defense in 2021, LAL ran a methodical, judicious style of offense and played pestering, contentious defense. This year the Lakers are the fastest team in the association and they’re 28th in the NBA in turnovers, giving up the ball 16 times per contest. That’s not good, and much of that is Russ. Westbrook averages 4.6 turnovers per game, second only to James Harden for the worst mark in the NBA.

The Nets, again the favorites to win the championship at the start of this season, have been volatile as well. Kyrie Irving is as weird as always (the Earth is flat, huh Kyrie? Cool cool…) and as soon as it was announced that he would return as a part-time player, he succumbed to COVID protocols. Shocker. Irving is out today, and so is Kevin Durant. Durant is leading the NBA is points per game (29.7) and he has a 52.3% field goal percentage. The latter statistic is really impressive, considering his 556 shot attempts are considerably more than the 17 other players who have better percentage marks than Durant. Putting it simply, Durant will be hugely missed today against an angry Lakers squad. James Harden will lead a Nets team that’s been uncharacteristically predicated on playing great defense, ranked 5th in the NBA. They rank 13th in offensive efficiency, which makes sense considering all the variance on their roster. Durant can’t do it all, and today Brooklyn will try to eke out a win without their superstar.

This game sets up really well for the Lakers. They’re at home, Durant is out, LeBron is mad and being vocal about it, and they’re below .500 heading into their Christmas matchup. LeMarcus Aldridge will also be out today; he’s played really well at the center position for Brooklyn. Aldridge may be a more significant loss than Durant, since the Lakers love to push the ball in the paint and should experience little resistance today against the depleted Nets. There’s just too much stacked against Brooklyn today and, for my money, I’d rather wager on one of the best players of all time to step up in a prime spot. Take LAL.

Christmas Day Premiums

By
Chris R. Farley
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Adding the Lakers here, but all these other picks you already know about.

NFL Picks:
  • Packers -7 **
  • Cardinals -1 **
NBA Picks: 
  • Knicks -5 **
  • Lakers -1.5 ** (Durant is OUT and Lebron has been vocal about his disappointment with this team. This is a great spot for LAL to get right with a short line)
  • Suns -5.5 *

December 25th NBA Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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Merry Christmas everybody! I’m rolling with a pair of NBA plays for today(1 premium, 1 free). With the NBA season in full swing and a great week of CFB action upcoming, there’s no better time to hop on board as a premium member. Visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9 to learn more.

*NBA(1u): Hawks +7(-110) @ Knicks–11:10 AM CT

The Hawks have had quite the 48-72 hour stretch. First, they lost outright at home to the 7-26 Magic. Then, without Trae Young, Clint Capela, and multiple other key contributors, they marched into Philadelphia the very next night and knocked off the 76ers as 10.5 point underdogs(I was on the Hawks in that one). Unfortunately, they’ll be short-handed once again today, but I don’t see any reason to go against Atlanta catching this many points. The Knicks have failed to put things together consistently this season like they were able to so well last year. Coach Tom Thibodeau has had a hard time deciding how he wants to deploy minutes to his main players. For example, Kemba Walker gives the Knicks a much needed boost on offense but sacrifices quite a bit on the defensive end of the floor. This sort of yin-and-yang is present at multiple position groups. A 3-8 record in December clearly shows this team is not in great current form, and while RJ Barrett is set to return in this game, he can’t be expected to be in peak form given that he hasn’t played since December 10th. I know Atlanta is short-handed, but in a revenge spot, this is far too many points to be giving a team that’s riding high off a road win vs a playoff team. Give me the points. 

December 25th NBA Premium Play

By
Michael Fordham
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Lebron dribbling down the court.

Merry Christmas everybody!

*NBA(1.5u): Lakers ML(-120) vs Nets–7:10 PM CT

You can bet against LeBron James on Christmas Day if you’d like, but I certainly wouldn’t advocate for it. While the Lakers have struggled as of late(4 straight L’s), there couldn’t be a better spot for this veteran-laden group to bounce back than in front of the whole world on Christmas Day. James Harden is the only notable Net that is suiting up for this game with many other notable guys either hurt or held back by the health/safety protocols. The Nets also haven’t played in exactly 1 week; in that game last Saturday against the 7-26 Magic, Brooklyn lost convincingly. This Nets team is depleted and can’t be trusted to win on the road coming off a full week off from game action AND facing a team that is desperate for a win. I’ll ride with LeBron and the Lakers here on Christmas Night. 

Executing The Edge Podcast 5 with Nick Hub – Bowls/Christmas movies with Kyle Hunter, NFL Future and more

By
Nick Hub
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In this week’s Executing the Edge podcast, Nick:

– Recaps the previous week plays

– Answers Twitter questions

– Breaks down the Birmingham Bowl, Cheez-It Bowl and Christmas movies with Special Guest Kyle Hunter (@KyleHunterPicks)

– Breaks down a couple more bowls

– Wraps it up with a free NFL Future

Get all of my plays through the Odds Breakers with my Exclusive CBB Subscription HERE

#Sportsbetting #sportsinvesting #FreePicks #FreePlays #Gamblingtwitter #NCAAF #CBB #CFB #MLB #NCAAB #ExecutingTheEdge

NBA Christmas Premiums and a Note to Customers

By
Chris R. Farley
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If you know me at all, then you know how much I HATE losing. I exponentially hate losing in picks that I give to YOU. 100% of the time, I’d rather lose my own money than give you guys bad picks.

Bad beats have accompanied a really down week in NBA betting; perhaps the worst of my tenure as an “NBA betting expert.” The good part about that is, as we’ve proven, regression to the mean will equate to many, many more wins in the near future. Our average is not others’ average, and I expect more.
I also feel VERY locked in to the NFL right now. Circa certainly has my sights set on football more than anything else, and although we can’t guarantee anything in betting (ever, and definitely not with this current COVID mess), I would pay special attention to my NFL picks this weekend.
I’m very grateful to all of you and your constant support. Have a great holiday weekend, and let’s get some damn Ws so I don’t drink myself to oblivion after Santa comes. Let’s goooo!
NBA Picks, Christmas Day:
  • Knicks -5 ** the Hawks are expected to be just as depleted as they have been all week – prime opportunity for NYK to capitalize at home
  • Suns -5.5 * always scary betting against Golden State, but the Suns are fully healthy and at home
  • Watch for the Warriors/Suns total to rise – I’m expecting it to be closer to 220 by tipoff, and then let’s hit the under. I’ll update if/when.

December 23rd NBA Free Play

By
Michael Fordham
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ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 09: Cam Reddish #22 of the Atlanta Hawks controls the ball during the second half of an NBA game against the Charlotte Hornets at State Farm Arena on March 9, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

I bounced back with a premium winner on the Clippers last night. In addition to this NBA free play, I’ve reserved 2 NBA premium plays for my members. CFB will be back in higher volume next week as we start to get bowl games with a lot less question marks than what we’ve had to work with this week. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9

*NBA(1u): Hawks +10.5(-110) @ 76ers–6:10 PM CT

After being knocked out of the playoffs by Atlanta last season, Philly has beaten the Hawks in each of their first two meetings this season. Even with Trae Young and Clint Capela out tonight, however, this line is giving the 76ers far too much love. Prior to beating the Celtics their last time out, Philly lost 4 of their last 5. If Joel Embiid is not on his “A” game, this offense totally crumbles. The Hawks haven’t exactly been the model of consistency this season, as exemplified by last night’s loss to the 7-25 Magic. Still, the Hawks are going to bring a good effort into Wells Fargo Center tonight given that they’ve lost to the 76ers twice already this season. Philly isn’t a team built to win by margin, so I’ll play on the road dog catching double-digits in this one. 

December 23rd NBA Premium Plays

By
Michael Fordham
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ATLANTA, GA - MARCH 09: Cam Reddish #22 of the Atlanta Hawks controls the ball during the second half of an NBA game against the Charlotte Hornets at State Farm Arena on March 9, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

*NBA(1u): Nuggets -2.5(-110) vs Hornets–8:10 PM CT

This is an absolutely horrible spot for the Hornets, who have been on the road since December 13th and will conclude the 6th and final game of their road trip tonight. They’ve spent nearly the past week exclusively on the west coast and won’t play until December 27th after tonight’s game. These players are human too, and in a game like basketball, it absolutely matters. Denver isn’t in great current form(14 point loss to OKC last night), but this is a team that has recently welcomed back a plethora of guys off of the injury report. The Nuggets will start to look a lot more like last year’s team in the coming weeks. As for the matchup in this game, Nikola Jokic should be poised to completely take over with Mason Plumlee as his counterpart on the Hornets side. This line is short. 

*NBA(1u): Grizzlies +6(-110) @ Warriors–9:10 PM CT

I don’t typically want to be looking for reasons to bet against a team like the Warriors, but this line indicates what I already thought when handicapping this game. The Warriors travel to Phoenix on Christmas Night to take on a red-hot Suns team, making this somewhat of a “look ahead” spot. Additionally, the Warriors will be without Andrew Wiggins, Damion Lee, Jordan Poole, and Andre Iguodala tonight. Steph Curry being in obviously keeps Golden State as pretty sizable favorites, but I don’t think this line is adjusting enough for how much those 4 counterparts mean to this Golden State team. Ja Morant has returned for the Grizzlies and already got a game to get back into the groove of things; while he might need a few more games to return to peak form, expect a better performance than we saw against OKC the other night. Even so, the Grizzlies proved they could win and win a lot without Morant, which should take some pressure off the rising star. Given the look ahead spot and depth issues to the pieces around Steph Curry, I’ll be on the Memphis side tonight. 

Rob Vinciletti: Thursday Exclusive Frisco Classic Power System Play

By
Rob Vinciletti
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Thursday card has a rare 6* Gasparilla Bowl play with a 16-0 System dating to 1980. We also have another Top Level NBA Play and the NFL Thursday night NFL Total of the Month as well as an Afternoon NCAAB Play. Frisco Classic below.
The Frisco Classic Comp Play is on Miami Ohio at 3:30 eastern. We have a pair of 6-6 teams here and North Texas who has won 5 straight applies to the rare system below that plays against Bowl dogs of 7 or less that scored 40 or more in a home dog win and also won their prior game. Miami Ohio fits a Massey Indicator we incorporate into our Analysis. Miami Ohio has covered 14 of 17 after allowing 275+ pass yards,5 straight after allowing 40+ points and they are 5-0 ats in Neutral field games. North Texas has failed to cover their last 6 December games and 9 of 11 after scoring 40 or more. They are off a huge home dog win and could be a bit flat here. Make it Miami Ohio. On Thursday 2 Big Football plays up including a huge and Rare 6* Bowl Play backed with a 16-0 System. In the NFL The Thursday night Total of the Month is up along with a Another Top NBA Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we continue to cash. For the Bowl Comp. Play on Miami Ohio. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.

SU0-5

ATS0-5

Dec 31, 2013viewTue192013RICEMSSTneutral7-70-200-140-37-447.050.5-37-30.00.5-14.7515.25LLO-

Jan 01, 2014viewWed192013UNLVNTXneutral7-70-00-77-2214-365.553.0-22-16.5-3.0-9.756.75LLU-

Dec 20, 2016viewTue172016MEMWKYneutral10-147-147-167-731-51780-20-132-5.57.5LLO0

Dec 26, 2016viewMon172016VANNCSTneutral3-00-147-147-1317-416.546-24-17.512-2.7514.75LLO0

Dec 29, 2017viewFri182017AZSTNCSTneutral0-710-210-321-2131-52763-21-14203.017.0LLO0

Dec 23, 2021viewThu172021NTXMIAOneutral—–3.054.5

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