Firstly, I hope most of you nailed that CLE/BOS under – the line came out 211.5, I took it, and it rose as far up as 217. Again that’s a line movement I did NOT anticipate, that’s been happening a lot this year, but usually (and oddly), it’s landed us on the right side more often than not.
This is a rough fucking stretch, but it’ll settle soon. We win long term, as you know, and as all of my records indicate. Let’s fucking get some wins tonight (I’d rather not throw my TV out the window, which is close to happening).
NBA Picks, 12.23:
Dallas +5 * (the Bucks are off a back to back, the Mavs are at home and they have the shooting power to keep this close, especially since Giannis is still out. Only 1 unit b/c the rosters are so damn annoying with all the injuries/COVID stuff, but +5 is too many points, by principle, for Dallas at home. I doubt this line moves up any more but who the hell knows these days)
Denver -2.5 * (this line might actually move down a little so you can wait on it if you want. Denver didn’t play their starters fully last night, with most averaging around 25 min, including Jokic. THIS should be the game where the Joker explodes and Charlotte’s lack of defense will only help)
Jazz only at -9.5 or less ** (if this line drops, and it may- hammer the Jazz. They’re at home and Towns WISHES he and his team were as good as Utah. The Jazz usually spank the Timberwolves and without Anthony Edwards, I can’t play Minnesota’s side. -11.5 is too big, so this is ONLY a bet if it drops)
Memphis +6 ** (GS hurt, Memphis should thrive down low, Grizzlies healthy and rested)
Suns -15 * (this is UGLY and SQUARE but it’s one of the few games where we can actually anticipate how the narrative will go. OKC off a big win at home last night, psh – all systems go on Phoenix.
NFL Earlies, Week 16:
Titans +3.5 **
Packers -7 (waiting for this line to come down, if/when. It may not, but if it’s -7 or less, I’m taking GB for 2 units. At -7.5, I’d do a 1 unit bet)
Dec. 23 – Frisco Football Classic,. Frisco, Tex.: Miami (Ohio) vs. North Texas+3 O/U 54.5, ESPN, 3:30 p.m. – I don’t know why Frisco gets to bowls?
Motivation: Miami (Ohio) – Medium – Lucky to even get a bowl game with only 5 division 1 wins but I am sure they are happy to be here. North Texas – Medium High – Won 5 games in a row to make a bowl game but stuck not traveling and playing this one at home. They probably assumed this might happen.
Injuries/Hold outs: None yet
SOS: Miami OH is 51st and North Texas is 87th
Coach Bowl ATS: Chuck Martin, Miami (OH), 2-0 and Seth Littrell, North Texas, 1-3
Metrics: North Texas is 90th in EPA margin while Miami is a nice 46th. Give N Texas 2 points for home field. Miami has about a 1 Net yard per play margin here.
Decision: Like Old Dominion, North Texas won their last 5 in a row to make a bowl game. Amazing. They also get to play it at home which isn’t great but not terrible for their motivation. This spread is trying to tell you that the MAC is better than Conference USA. Probably correct. My neutral numbers are Miami OH -3.5 but I actually like North Texas at home at the 3 or better.
North Texas +3 -120 – 2 stars
Dec. 23 – Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa FL: Central Florida vs. Florida -6.5 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Motivation: Central Florida – High – Gets to play an SEC team. Florida – Medium Low – Lost their coach and quite a few players. This bowl does nothing for them but it would be embarrassing to lose to a smaller Florida team.
Injuries/Hold outs: Were do we start? UCF QB Dillon Gabriel has been out a while but he is now transferring anyways. Florida’s Interim coach Greg Knox (running backs and special teams coach) on the sidelines as the Gators transition from the recently-fired Dan Mullen to the recently-hired Billy Napier. We could also see some Gators — like defensive lineman Zachary Carter — opt out. Another big NFL Draft prospect to watch is cornerback Kaiir Elam. In addition to potential opt-outs, Florida’s top wide receiver Jacob Copeland and top linebacker Mohamoud Diabate have entered the transfer portal. In Florida quarterback news, Emory Jones plans to enter the transfer portal but will play in the bowl game. Anthony Richardson will likely miss the game due to minor knee surgery.
SOS: Central Florida is 100th and Florida is 58th.
College Bowl ATS: Gus Malzahn, UCF, 3-4 and Florida N/A
Metrics: Florida has a .2 YPP advantage and in a much harder conference. My power ratings are Florida -6.25 but there is no way that I can play Florida with all of their opt out and coaching issues. If this gets to 7, it is a play on UCF.
UCF +7 – 2 stars
Dec. 24 – Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu, Hawai‘i: Hawaii vs. Memphis -7.5 O/U 55.5, ESPN, 8 p.m.
Motivation: Hawaii – Medium Low – This team always plays in this bowl game. Memphis – Medium – Great destination but they will also get up for this game.
Injuries/Hold outs: Hawaii starting quarterback Chevan Cordeiro and starting running back Dae Dae Hunter both decided to leave the program and enter the transfer portal. Quarterback Brayden Schager, who really struggled in relief of an injured Cordeiro, will presumably get the start. On the Memphis side, wide receiver Calvin Austin III will sit out to prepare for the NFL Draft.
SOS: Hawaii is 86th and Memphis is 89th
College Bowl ATS: Ryan Silverfield, Memphis 1-1 and Todd Graham, Hawai’i, 6-4
Metrics: Memphis has a .5 net yard per play advantage but Hawaii is in QB turmoil and my power ratings are Memphis -6.5 even if Corderio was going to play. Lots of bad rumors for Todd Graham that he hasn’t been good to his players which means that he could be fired.
Decision: I think there is a good change that Memphis blows Hawaii out here at their house. I took this at 5 but would lay it up to -9.5
Memphis -7.5 – 2 stars
Dec. 25 – Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, Ala.: Ball State vs. Georgia State -5 O/U 50, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Motivation: Ball State – High – Ball State won the Mac last year and will be happy to try and win this bowl game. Georgia State – High – I think that Georgia State caught fire and will keep it rolling.
Injuries/Hold outs: Nothing
SOS: Ball State is 88th and Georgia State was 95th.
College Bowl ATS: Mike Neu, Ball State, 1-0 and Shawn Elliot, Georgia State 2-1.
Metrics: I only have this game close to Pickem looking at the power ratings. Both teams got better as the season progressed. Georgia State has a .6 net yard per play advantage. They should be able to run the ball averaging 5 yards per rush while Ball State gives up 4.2. Ball State ranks 92nd in EPA Margin while Georgia State ranks 62nd. Ball State ranks 92nd in offensive success rate and 120th on defense while Georgia State ranks 35th and 56th respectively.
Decision: The Power ratings say to play Ball State but the metrics like Georgia State. Passing at the 5.
We have a very merry show for you today! ESPN’s Chris Fallica @ChrisFallica is back to discuss a HUGE season of bowl games and playoffs! First, Kiev answers a listener question about a deposit mistake made at a sports book. Then, Chris comes on and we get into the games, leans and FREE PLAYS throughout the rest of the bowl season. Next, Kiev talks about his next section of bowl games from December 25th – 28th with motivation, strength of schedule, coach bowl ATS, metrics and more! Then, Kiev discusses NFL week 16 with some game break downs and some more free picks. Our refuse to lose teaser will be decided upon a later date and sent via article due to too much Covid in the NFL. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
NFL: Washington vs Dallas – Indianapolis vs Arizona and more!
NCAA: Michigan vs Georgia – Utah vs Ohio State and more!
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Three weeks left.
Steve and I are 49-25-1 in Circa. And we’re in 21st place overall.
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Oh yea- LET’S GO!!! Check out our newest pod below any everywhere you find podcasts!
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The Patriots out-gained the Colts 365 to 275 yet lost 27-17. A 2-1 turnover ratio hurt. Wentz also only had 49 passing yards this whole game.
The Bills only out-gained the Panthers 312 to 275 yet won 31-14. Equal turnovers but bad 4th down efficiency hurt the Panthers.
The Cardinals out-gained the Lions 398 to 338 yet lost 30-12. Equal turnovers but bad quarterback plays got the Cardinals.
The Titans out-gained the Steelers 318 to 168 yet lost 19-13. A 4-0 turnover ratio got them bad.
The Jaguars out-gained the Texans 296 to 281 yet lost 30-16. The Jags also won the turnover battle 1-0 but bad special teams really got the best of them.
The Broncos outgained the Bengals 292 to 249 yet lost 15-10. A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad QB play got the Broncos.
The Buccaneers out-gained the Saints 302 to 212 yet lost 9-0. A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor red zone efficiency and injuries got the Buccaneers.
The Bears out-gained the Vikings 370 to 193 yet lost 17-9. A 3-1 turnover ratio, bad officiating and massive penalties got the best of them.
The Clippers lost twice to this Kings team just earlier this month, making this a “double revenge” game for a Clippers team that is quite familiar with this particular opponent. The Clippers lost the first of their matchups with Sacramento 124-115; the night before the rematch, LAC played a high-intensity game against the Lakers and ended up winning. Thus, you could understand why the Clippers weren’t as sharp when they had to travel to Sacramento and play the next night. You might think that line of thinking is ridiculous(I’d tend to agree), but it’s simply the reality of how NBA players think this day and age.
This will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for a short-handed Kings bunch that is without De’Aaron Fox, Davion Mitchell, Marvin Bagley, among others. In turn, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, and Harrison Barnes have all played at least 37 minutes over the past 2 games. Look for fatigue to be a factor tonight, especially given the level of pace at which Sacramento likes to play. This is also the last game Sacramento will play until Dec. 26th; given how tumultuous this season has been for them, I’m sure everybody within that organization is ready for a break. The Clippers aren’t in great current form having lost their last 3 games, but they have the major health/rest advantage entering this game. This team beat the Suns by 16 points just a week ago, so they aren’t too far removed from playing really good basketball.
Given the double revenge angle and the health/rest of each of these teams, I think the Clippers win this game by double digits.
Quite a finish to our NFL week, so first and foremost I want to celebrate THAT! The COVID assault on the NFL and NBA doesn’t make betting any easier, so it’s nice to escape Week 15 with a winning record. Expect positive regression in our bowl game picks, that’s why the WYO under was only 1 unit, and don’t overreact to our recent NBA losses. The fact that Indiana shit the bed and barely showed up on offense last night was just atrocious. Of course that’s what the Pacers do, but wow. Hard not to play on those matchup advantages. Today is another day with inflated favorites and a ton of injuries – tread carefully on NBA bets in general, and trust in the process! Onto the picks:
Early NFL:
Titans +3.5 *** (I LOVE the Titans in this spot. San Francisco is on the road, probably feeling WAY too good about themselves after an easy win at home against ATL. The Titans have proven they can still run without Henry, they’re at home, their defense is playing REALLY well, and the Titans are a blue-collar, smash-mouth team; the Niners are soft. Vrabel and the Titans should either win or make this VERY close. I’d consider a sprinkling on the Tennessee ML, too)
Lions +6 ** (Falcons a 6 point favorite, are you kidding me? Auto bet on a Detroit team that’s playing some very spirited football right now, and for my money, they’re the better team)
NBA Today:
Cavs/Celtics under 211.5 ** (The Cavs have one of the most underrated backcourts in the NBA, especially on defense. Even without Mobley and Allen, CLE can slow down Boston. I expect a low-scoring game between two exceptional defenses)
Nuggets -5.5 * (The difference in this game is Jokic. Unless he’s a late scrap, which is always possible with the oddity that is the NBA, this should be a huge Jokic game and a Nuggets win by margin)
Bulls -9 * (This is a big line but the Raptors are without VanFleet and Siakam and Chicago is getting healthy. The Bulls should overwhelm Toronto on offense and get a big win at home)
Originally, there were 10 games scheduled for today however, due to the ongoing pandemic, we’re left with only 1 game. This will be the last NHL game scheduled until the return on the 27th of December. Even though we have just one game happening tonight, it’s an incredible matchup between two 1st place teams.
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Vegas Golden Knights
Time: 10:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Tampa Bay Lightning: 19-6-4, 1st Atlantic (9-3-2 Away)
Vegas Golden Knights: 20-11-0, 1st Pacific (10-6-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Tampa Bay Lightning
+110
+105
+1.5 (-220)
o5.5 (-125)
Vegas Golden Knights
-130
-125
-1.5 (+175)
u5.5 (+105)
Trends:
Over is 4-1 in Golden Knights last 5 vs Atlantic
Golden Knights are 8-2 in their last 10 vs Atlantic
Under is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 Overall
Preview:
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning enter this matchup on a two game winning streak knocking off Ottawa and Los Angeles. They were originally scheduled to play Colorado on Saturday but, that game was postponed.
After a less than ideal start to the season, the Tampa Bay Lightning have hit their stride sitting atop of the Atlantic Division. Since the start of December, they have only lost one of their eight games.
While Tampa hasn’t been able to match their offensive productivity of last season, they still have been above the League average. They currently have a -4.69 Goals For Above Expected which means their failing to convert on the scoring chances they’re creating slightly below average. Despite this moderately concerning statistic, the Lightning still generate 2.42 Goals For Per 60 which is good enough for 12th. Another area of concern has been their Power Play % which ranks 20th. The loss of Nikita Kucherov earlier this season has impacted their man advantage tremendously. The Lightning will also be without Brayden Point who remains on IR with a lower body injury.
Defensively, the Bolts have been great only allowing 1.79 Goals Against Per 60 which is 2nd in the NHL. Tampa also ranks highly in Goals Against Above Expected with a -13.49. They have done a great job of limiting opponents shots specifically, High Danger Shots Against.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is expected to get the start in net tonight for Tampa Bay. Just like the team, he had a slow start to the year but has turned things around. He has a +15.4 Goals Saved Above Expected through 23 games. In his last 6 starts, he has only allowed more than 2 goals once.
Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights are one of the hottest teams in the NHL currently coming into this matchup on a five game winning streak. Vegas has currently not had any games postponed due to COVID so they’ve played more recently than Tampa Bay. During their 5 game win streak, they have outscored opponents 22-13.
Offensively, the Golden Knights have been one of the best teams in the NHL with a +6.16 Goals For Above Expected. They’re averaging 2.94 Goals For Per 60 which ranks 6th in the NHL. Unlike the Tampa Bay, Vegas has been able to generate more shots on goal averaging 33.3 Per Game. The Golden Knights may be without one of their top forwards tonight in Marc Stone who is sidelined with a undisclosed injury and is listed as day to day.
On the back end of things, Vegas has struggled a bit allowing an average of 2.48 Goals Against Per 60. While this isn’t awful, this is certainly an area that they’ll want to clean up. They’ll be without Alec Martinez tonight which will hurt them as he’s on IR with a face injury.
It looks as though Robin Lehner will get the start tonight for the Golden Knights. He has a +3.3 GSAx on the year. While Lehner has won his last four starts, he has also allowed three or more goals in three of those matchups.
Pick:
UNDER 5.5 (+105)
Again, this is an incredibly hard game to pick. There’s stats backing up both sides and totals in this game. However, I have a feeling that this game goes Under the total of 5.5 here.
Yes, both offenses can score and Lehner has struggled as of late. However, when you really look at these two teams they matchup well which leads me to take the Under.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
