*CFB(1u): Old Dominion +9(-110) vs Tulsa–1:30 PM CT
Both of these teams are 6-6 entering this afternoon’s bout in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Additionally, both teams used strong finishes to the season to secure their bowl eligibility. However, I think one team clearly did a more impressive job in the second half of the season and should feel good entering today’s game. Old Dominion started the year just 1-5, but after promoting Hayden Wolff to starting QB, the Monarchs won their final 5 games of the season. Even with measly QB play early in the season, ODU still played Buffalo, UTEP, and Marshall all to 1 score games. In addition to Wolff adding a spark at QB, the Monarchs also run the ball quite well; Blake Watson and Elijah Davis each exceeded the 5 YPC mark with at least 100 carries to their name. Tulsa has traditionally played good defense under Phil Montgomery, but the Golden Hurricanes took a step back on that side of the ball this year. It’s also worth noting that DC Joseph Gillespe left for the TCU DC job and will not be coaching in this game. It’s very easy to fade Tulsa’s offense because of their poor QB play. Davis Brin threw 16 INT’s this season, completed just 59% of his passes, and struggled to eclipse the 8 Y/A mark. Tulsa had some success with their young RB’s this season, but Phil Montgomery chose to dish most of the carries out to senior Sean Brooks, who amassed just 4.8 YPC this season. Given this is Brooks’ last game, I highly doubt Montgomery will take carries away from him. This formula leads to Tulsa converting just 37% of the time on 3rd down. What ultimately gets me to the window in this game is that Tulsa has failed to win by margin this season(excluding against Temple, who publicly quit towards the end of the season). They beat Arkansas State by just 7, South Florida by 1, and actually lost to UC Davis by 2 earlier in the season; I power rate all of those teams lower than this Old Dominion squad. Old Dominion is 9-3 ATS this season and, being a lower-level G5 school, is much more likely to max out in this game; Tulsa underperformed expectations this season and will have to address whether Phil Montgomery is the right guy for the HC job. Any spread over 1 possession presents a good opportunity to play on a hot ODU team and fade a Tulsa team that clearly isn’t built to win by margin.
Let’s start off the week strong, people! Hope your weekend was lucrative:
NBA 12.20:
Rockets +8.5 * (The Bulls are off a physical game against LAL last night in a tough win, the Rockets are considerably better with Christian Wood. I think they can hang here against a depleted Bulls unit)
Hornets/Jazz over 235.5 ** (Hornets totals have been insanely high and the Jazz are due positive regression on offense)
NFL 12.20-12.21:
Raiders +3 *
Vikings/Bears over 44.5 **
Eagles -6.5 **
Rams -7 *
Teaser: Raiders +10, Vikings +0.5, Eagles +0.5, Rams win (2 units to win 4)
The Monday night Football Total of the Year headlines along with the Beach Bowl System Play going early, NHL and NCAAB Platinum Supreme up too. NBA Compo play below.
The NBA Comp play is on Utah at 9:10 eastern. The Jazz host Charlotte here after back to back lose here at home as a double digit favorite. Charlotte comes in with no rest after getting scorched by the Suns last night. The Hornets have failed to cover 12 of 17 on the road, 14 of 19 vs .600 or better opposition and are 0-4 ats in the series with Utah. The Jazz have covered 11 of 13 here vs the Hornets and will likely coast to a cover here tonight. in the NFL we have our MNF Total of the Year and the Beach Bowl going. In hoops the lead play is an NCAAB Platinum Supreme and on the Ice we have another Powerful play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we start the week big. For the NBA Comp play. Go with Utah. Rob -V Golden Contender Sports.
Nobody knows Matt Ryan more than 49ers coach Kyle Shannahan. He coached him in their superbowl year. In saying that, I have to expect that Kyle knows his weaknesses as well. Believe it or not, Atlanta quietly ranks 3rd in opponent rush EPA but only 27th against the pass. Jimmy G has been lights out lately throwing the ball to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. He is top 5 in pass success rate as well as EPA per play. The only way to stop Jimmy G is to get to him. Atlanta is dead last in Sack rate. The Falcons also have some injured linebackers with Ellerbee and Fowler exiting last game. DVOA hates the Falcons having them dead last and don’t have them a lot higher. The 49ers are 8th in DVOA and trending up. Take the 49ers.
San Francisco -9 – 2 stars
6 pt Teaser: Cincinnati to +9 with Green Bay to -1 – 2 stars
Am I nervous? Yes. Am I excited? Yes. Am I going to be pacing through every game today? Absolutely. Let’s go, fellow Odds Breakers! Steve and I are 46-23-1 and in 27th place in Circa – here’s our OFFICIAL Week 15 picks!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 46-23-1 (66%)
NBA: 103-80 (56%), +30.69 units
NFL Sunday night 100% Play of the Year Headlines along with an Executive Level TIER 1 in Afternoon action and an Early 5* Blowout. In Hoops we have the NBA Eastern Conf. Game of the Month and College hoops. NFL Comp play below.
The NFL Comp play is on the NY. Jets plus the 9-10 points at 1:00 eastern. The Jets have home loss revenge here and fit a nice system that is 15-5 to the spread since 1980 which is to play on road dogs of 5 or more that are off back to back home losses with back to back home games on deck. The Jets have played better when coming off a blowout loss and Miami could be without key players after an outbreak earlier in the week. The Dolphins had won 5 straight prior to the break. However they are 25th on offense and 21st on defense so its tough to lay this number. Look for the Jets to get the cover. The Sunday night Play of the Year Headlines tonight with a Perfect long term system, there is also our Executive Level TIER 1 in later afternoon and an Early 5* Blowout System. In hoops we have our Eastern Conf. Game of the Month and NHL. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on as we end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Take the points with the Jets. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
What an absolute crazy start for week 15 in the NFL. From all of the roster changes, games being rescheduled, and an EPIC TNF game… we are in-store for a wild ride!. Oh and not to mention we now have four straight days of NFL action…LFG! Now with this crazy week comes my “crazy” pick. It goes against the grain and is certainly not going to be popular.
NFL record through Week 14: 115-85 +30.98 Units
Den -3 (-110)
Fading the public in this match up. From the various podcast, radio shows, and talking to people, a ton and I mean a TON of people are loving the Bengals in this spot @ +3. The current Bet % via Action Network as I write this article is 62% Cin 38% Den. Seems like more action is coming in on DEN since I locked this bet in when it was 71/29 on Cin. As that percentage gets closer together, look for this line to grow. My guess by tomorrow we could see it at 3.5-4.
Games are won in the trenches. For me the Bengals offensive line is just going to be too banged up against a very capable Broncos defense. With both Riley Reiff and Isaiah Prince out, the right tackle position is exposed to 3rd stringer Fred Johnson. Burrow is going to be under pressure and already going to have trouble as it is with the Broncos elite secondary. Historically speaking the Bengals have not faired well traveling to Mile High. in their last 11 games on the road they are 1-10. Working in our favor we also love the trend of Teddy Bridgewater boasting a 75% ATS covering record at 33-11.
The combination of the inconsistency of the Bengals play: Wondering which team is going to show up week-to-week. The public being so confident to quickly speak on taking the Bengals, no questions asked. Bengals injuries, particularly exposing their offensive line and the key trends of away record vs Bridgewater’s ATS competency. It’s gross it feels bad the Bengals should be the pick… nope too easy to like them in this spot. Broncos -3.
Dec. 20 – Myrtle Beach Bowl, Conway, S.C.: Old Dominion vs. Tulsa -9.5 O/U 52, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Motivation: Old Dominion – Medium – Old Dominion is happy to make a bowl game after not playing last year and they won 5 games in a row to do it. Probably more of a home game for the Monarchs. Tulsa – Medium Low – Tulsa also happy to make a bowl game but this will be treated like a vacation for these kids from the middle of farm country.
Injuries/Hold outs: Tulsa’s defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie leaving for the same position at TCU and offensive line coach Zach Hanson heading to USC. Gillespie will also take cornerbacks coach Carlton Buckels along with him to Fort Worth though some if not all might stay to coach this bowl.
SOS: Tulsa’s at 73rd and Old Dominions at 127th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Philip Montgomery, Tulsa, 1-2 and Ricky Rahne N/A for Old Dominion.
Metrics: Tulsa has a .6 net yard per play advantage over Old Dominion but the stats favor Tulsa some on offense and Old Dominion on defense. My power rating has Tulsa -10 points. Tulsa only ranks 91st in EPA margin while Old Dominion ranks 70th.
Decision: I really can’t see a ton of motivation here for Tulsa in a great location like Myrle Beach. Old Dominion started off the season terrible and finished amazingly beating teams like FAU and Middle Tennessee State. The only team that Tulsa has blown out this year is Temple and I think that the Monarch’s can keep this one close.
Old Dominion +9.5 – 2 stars and sprinkle the ML
Dec. 21 – Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise, Idaho: Kent State vs. Wyoming -3 O/U 59, ESPN, 3:30 p.m.
Motivation: Kent State – Medium – This team lost their title game but they also made it to a bowl game which is huge for the program. Wyoming – Medium Low – Not exactly what kids from Wyoming want in a bowl game and it’s still over 600 miles away.
Injuries/Hold outs: Not much
SOS: Wyoming is 91st and Kent State’s is 98th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Craig Bohl, Wyoming, 3-0 and Shawn Hamilton, Kent State, 1-0
Metrics: Wyoming has only a .1 net yard per play advantage over Kent State. The Golden Flashes are bad on defense and great on offense compared to Wyoming which is kinda medium at both. Kent State will run a fast tempo ranking 3rd in the nation and Wyoming will play it slow ranking 97th. My power ratings has Wyoming -3.25.
Decision: I can see a lot of variance in this bowl game when it comes to a side, but Kent State games have had some very high scoring and I could see it going over. Lean over 59
Dec. 21 – Frisco Bowl, Frisco, Tex.: San Diego State vs. Texas-San Antonio +3 O/U 49, ESPN, 7:30 p.m.
Motivation: San Diego State – Medium High – These kids lost their conference title game but will want to finish strong and treat this like a business trip. UTSA – Medium Low – They won their conference title and this bowl game won’t matter as much but at least it is more of a home game only 300 miles away. They have also played North Texas here almost every year but that didn’t go well from them a few weeks back. Some home field advantage for UTSA for sure here.
Injuries/Hold outs: UTSA star running back Sincere McCormick has declared for the NFL Draft and will not play in the Frisco Bowl. Roadrunners starting safety Rashad Wisdom will also miss the first half due to a targeting call in the second half of the Conference USA Championship game.
SOS: 61st for San Diego State and 57th for UTSA
Coach Bowl ATS: Brady Hoke, San Diego State, 1-3-1 and Jeff Traylor, UTSA, 1-0
Metrics: San Diego State played in the harder conference but UTSA has a .2 net yard per play advantage. The Aztecs have a horrible offense ranking 109th in success rate and a great defense ranking 6th in success rate. UTSA ranks in the 40s in both categories. My power rating has UTSA -7.25. UTSA ranks 30th in EPA margin to San Diego State ranking 56th.
Decision: This spread scares me some. The Story is that San Diego State was embarrassed by Utah State and they had covid issues going into that game. With the new info on McCormick sitting out, I do not want anything to do at this number.
Dec. 22 – Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth, Tex.: Army vs. Missouri +3.5 O/U 58, ESPN, 8 p.m.
Motivation: Army – High – Beat an SEC team? Why the hell not? Missouri – High – Happy to make a bowl.
Injuries/Hold outs: None but Missouri doesn’t know who they are starting at QB
SOS: Missouri 51st and Army at 87th
Coach Bowl ATS: Jeff Monken, Army, 3-1 and Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri, N/A
Metrics: Missouri can’t stop the run at all allowing 5.5 rushing yards per attempt while Army averages 4.9 on the ground. What I will say is that Missouri isn’t the worst passing team and could put up some passing yards vs Army who gives up 8.2 passing yards per attempt. I think that there are many ways that Army can cover this spread just due to their pure explosiveness running the ball. My power ratings have army winning -6.5 but I also lean to the over some. This is also a live betting scenario and you will see how the game will go on Army’s first drive.
