UTSA quarterback Frank Harris (0) throws downfield as he warms up before an NCAA college football game against BYU, Saturday, Oct. 10, 2020, in Provo, Utah. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, Pool)
223/224 UTSA vs SDST Total 49
This total has ticked up from 48.5 since yesterday and it makes sense. Total initially probably went down from it’s original 50 open when UTSA RB Chance McCormick opted out of the game. Looking at the trends between these two teams, when SDST has allowed over 250 pass yards they are 4-2 O/U this season. UTSA averages just over 250 pass yards/ game. UTSA has struggled against teams who can run the ball lately, and the Aztecs offense should be able to run the ball averaging 175 rush yards/ game . When teams have run over 150 yards against the Roadrunners the total has gone 2-0 O/U, even with the higher totals that we see in the C-USA games. I realize it is hard to trust this SDST offense and so I’ll be making a smaller play on the over 49.
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps NFL week 15 and discusses some of the massive upsets. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores as well as some motivational spots for NFL Week 16. Next, Kiev talks about all of the bowl games for December 23rd -24th leans and plays! Next, Kiev goes solo for a late version of Fantasy Football. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed. Finally, Kiev gives out his nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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We are 23-10 (70%) in our last 33 College Basketball plays and 46-28 (62%) overall on the CBB season!! We 5 CBB premium plays for tonight and have one of them below for you.
The Jacksonville Dolphins will head north up the coast to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers this afternoon at Petersen Events Center. The Dolphins enter with a 7-3 record and are on a 3-game winning streak after crushing Webber International by 39 points on Saturday and the Panthers improved to 4-7 after beating St. John’s by 2 points on the road in their last time out. Jacksonville is scoring 67.4 points per game on 45.1% shooting against defenses who are giving up 75 points per game and 46.5% from the field and, on defense, they are limiting the opposition to 54.1 points on 38.5% shooting versus offenses averaging 62.6 points per game on 39.7% from the floor. On the other hand, Pitt scores 60.4 points per game on 40.9% from the field against defenses that surrender 66.1 points per game and 41.1% shooting. Defensively, they limit teams to 64.5 points per game on 41.4% from the floor versus offenses putting up 73 points on 44.3% shooting. There will be no hurry to push the ball up the floor in this one as both squads have a preference for slow-down basketball. Pittsburgh is 334th nationally in game pace while Jacksonville currently ranks 305th. The Dolphins also rank 303rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and own the 352nd average possession length (19.9 seconds) while the Panther own the247th ranked adjusted offensive efficiency and the 322nd average possession length (18.9 seconds). Both of these defenses should be licking their chops as they rank 133th (Jax) and 54th (Pitt) in defensive effective field goal percentage. This is going to be an ugly, slow paced game that will not feature many points. The total is low for a reason as I can see this landing under 100. Additionally, the Under is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games as an underdog, 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 road games, 6-0-1 in Panthers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 8-2-1 in Panthers last 11 overall and is 6-2 in Panthers last 8 home games. Take Under 119
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*NBA(1u): Mavericks +1(-110) vs Timberwolves–7:40 PM CT
These teams matched up just 2 days ago in Minnesota, with the T-Wolves pulling away in the 4th quarter en route to a 6 point win. When teams are around the same level of caliber, I think it’s very difficult to beat the same team in back-to-back games. Not only that, but Dallas gets the advantage of coming back to their home arena for this classic “revenge” game. Both teams are missing quite a few key pieces in this one; Dallas is without Luka Doncic and Max Kleber among others, while Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Patrick Beverly. Doncic hasn’t played in awhile for the Mavs, so his absence might be less of a factor than people might think. However, for the T-Wolves to be without Edwards AND Beverly is a big blow to a team that really needs all their guys healthy to be effective. Beverly in particular plays great defense and sets the tone on that end of the floor. Neither team is ideally structured from a personnel standpoint in this matchup, but I do expect Dallas to enact revenge on the T-Wolves tonight.
*CFB(1u): San Diego State/UTSA 1H UNDER 24.5(-115)–6:30 PM CT
Each of these teams enjoyed 11 win regular seasons and made their respective conference title games. UTSA beat a hot Western Kentucky team to win the C-USA, while San Diego State crumbled in a blowout loss to Utah State. Still, the Aztecs have an advantage entering this game in that they faced a tougher schedule than UTSA did. In addition to playing Fresno State, Boise State, and Nevada in conference play, SDSU also played(and beat) Rose Bowl-bound Utah early in the season. The Aztecs are completely led by their defense; they gave up less than 20 PPG in the regular season and were great at both stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. UTSA is a run heavy team, as RB Sincere McCormick toted the rock a whopping 299 times this season. McCormick declared for the NFL Draft and won’t play in this game; the 2 RB’s behind him combined for less than 100 carries and each averaged less than 5 YPC. UTSA QB Frank Harris has been very efficient this season, completing 66% of his passes and throwing just 5 INT’s vs 25 TD’s. However, much of his success has been in conjecture with an established running game; with this step up in competition and the absence of his RB1, I think Harris is going to be forced into some obvious passing situations early. While Harris was excellent as a runner this season, I see that part of his game flourishing more in the 2nd Half when the Roadrunners realize their usual game plan won’t work without McCormick. UTSA does play with a good amount of tempo, but San Diego State saw that sort of tempo plenty this season and still proved to be effective. As much as I just praised the SDSU defense, there ain’t much good to say about what they’re rolling with offensively. The Aztecs converted just 31% of the time on 3rd down and feature no real passing game. They played 2 QBs throughout the season, and neither was able to throw for more than 7 Y/A. Rather, SDSU chose a run heavy approach with RB Greg Bell; even with 221 carries under his belt, Bell averaged a pretty mediocre 4.5 YPC and shouldn’t be counted on as a huge threat to break off big runs. In addition to their inefficiencies, SDSU runs at a snail’s pace, ending the season with just 66.8 plays/game(106th in CFB). UTSA certainly doesn’t specialize defensively, but this Aztec offense isn’t too hard to stop. Given SDSU’s style of play, a 1H total at or above 24 presents us with a good opportunity to play this 1H UNDER.
Don’t look now, but the Blazers might just be turning things around. After losing the first 7 games they played in December, Portland has picked up back-to-back impressive wins against Charlotte and Memphis. CJ McCollum is still out, and although Damian Lillard is “questionable” tonight, I would absolutely expect him to play. The Blazers have had to play with 8-9 man rotations here recently, but they should have more depth tonight after welcoming back multiple role players off the injury report. The Pelicans have technically won their last 2 games, but that came against Oklahoma City and a Bucks team without almost their entire starting lineup. In addition, the Pelicans haven’t played since last Friday. While there are certain teams who might benefit from breaks in their schedule, I don’t think this young, raw New Orleans team as one of them. I am lower on this New Orleans team than a lot of my confidants, and I can’t understand how they’re favored in this spot. I’ve got no problem grabbing the point-and-a-half and trusting a Blazers team that looks to be on the up-and-up.
*NBA(1u): Lakers +7.5(-110) vs Suns–9:05 PM CT
The Suns are as efficient of a team as you’ll find across the NBA, and I can see why it might be tempting to play against a Lakers team that’s roster is pretty depleted right now. Even so, this sets up to be a game that LeBron James goes “all out” in. Phoenix knocked LAL out of the playoffs last year and also beat them pretty handily earlier in the season. This is a nationally televised game, and as we know, LeBron James still has the ability to completely take over a game. I think that’s exactly what we will see happen tonight. 7.5 is too many points considering this spot.
I’m not sure why my wins/losses are so streaky – we win -win-win and then when we lose, it’s almost always an AWFUL day all-around. That was a weird night in the NBA. Onto Tuesday!
NBA Picks:
Pacers -2.5 ** (The Heat are incredibly depleted and the Pacers should, keyword should, be able to overwhelm them on offense and stay ahead. Miami will stay afloat and get plenty of wins when their team is healthy again)
Blazers/Pelicans over 219 * (two teams that should have matchup advantages tonight and be able to score at will)
Suns -7 ** (What can I say? The Lakers are not the team they used to be and the Suns are everything they are not. CP3 takes care of the ball and Devin Booker is back. Even on the road, I think it’s night night LAL again, especially without AD)
P.S. – our NFL Teaser is halfway there! Let’s go LAR/Philly!
In what was originally supposed to be a 5 game slate tonight in the NHL however, we only have one game going. Ideally, we’d have more games to chose from but, I’ll take what I can get and breakdown the Minnesota Wild vs the Dallas Stars.
The following games have been cancelled due to COVID-19:
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Buffalo Sabres
Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders
Colorado Avalanche @ Detroit Red Wings
Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers
Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Minnesota Wild: 19-8-2, 1st Central (9-6-1 Away)
Dallas Stars: 14-12-2, 6th Central (10-3-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Minnesota Wild
+107
-110
+1.5 (-255)
o5.5 (-125)
Dallas Stars
-118
-110
-1.5 (+215)
u5.5 (+105)
Trends:
Over is 9-1 in Wild last 10 games playing on 1 day rest.
Wild are 4-0 in their last 4 vs Central.
Stars are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
Under is 7-1 in Stars last 8 home games.
Preview:
Minnesota Wild
The Wild enter this matchup on a three game losing streak dropping games to Los Angeles, Vegas, and Buffalo. They played their last game on Thursday as their game vs Florida was cancelled on Saturday due to the Panthers having a COVID outbreak.
The Wild have been good offensively averaging 3.02 Goals For Per 60 which ranks 2nd in the NHL. Although, they have been below that average during their 3 game losing streak which makes sense. Minnesota also has one of the best Goals For Above Expected differentials with a +10.41. Like I mentioned before, they’re starting to regress slightly but still have a 55..56 Goal %. One area of concern offensively for them has been their Power Play % which ranks 23rd. Krill Kaprizov leads the team in points with 33 through 29 games.
On the opposite side of the puck, the Wild haven’t been as good. They have a +0.83 Goals Against Above Expected and are averaging 2.42 Goals Against Per 60. While these numbers aren’t awful, they’re not great either. They’ve currently rank 22nd in Shots on Goal Allowed but have done a good job at limiting High Danger Shots Against only allowing 44 on the year.
Cam Talbot has been confirmed as the starter for them tonight in net. Talbot has a +6.5 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) on the year. In his last few games he has allowed 2-5-2-1-3 goals against with a 3-2 record. When Tablot has allowed 2 or fewer goals, the Wild have only lost twice which isn’t really a shocking stat.
Dallas Stars
The Stars snapped their five game losing streak on Saturday beating the Chicago Blackhawks in OT 4-3. However, prior to the five game losing streak, they were on a tear winning seven games in a row.
Dallas has made their money at home this season with a 10-3-1 record while they have struggled on the road. They haven’t been great on offense this year averaging just 1.81 Goals For Per 60. To make matters worse, they haven’t been able to capitalize on scoring chances with a -10.33 Goals For Above Expected. The Stars have a 45.16 Goal % which again, isn’t great. Despite the Stars offensive woes, they do rank 4th in Power Play % and 1st in Faceoff %. Joe Pavelski leads the team in points with 26 through 28 games. He’s coming off a 4 point performance against Chicago.
Defensively, Dallas has been better statistically averaging 2.2 Goals Against Per 60 along with a -1.12 Goals Against Above Expected. The Stars have done a great job at limiting shots from opponents ranking 10th. They also should be able to shut down the Wild’s Power Play which has been struggling this year.
Jake Oettinger has been confirmed as the starter in net for the Stars. He has a +6.0 GSAx through his nine starts. Oettinger was recalled from the minors back in November and has been solid for the Stars this year. Given Holtby’s struggles recently Oettinger will remain the starter in Dallas.
Picks:
DAL/ MIN OVER 5.5 (-125)
This an incredibly tough game to pick. The Stars on one hand have seemed to have finally broken through offensively in their win on Saturday. However, they face a tough Minnesota squad that’s going through a rough patch since Dean Evason took over. The Wild avoided two tough games with Florida and Carolina both being postponed so they should have had some time off to figure things out. While the Stars have been almost an automatic under play in the past few years, I have a feeling this game goes over given Minnesota’s need for a win.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
We’re losing some value here (it started around 214) but this is a matchup advantage for San Antonio: they’re the BEST paint scoring team in the NBA and that’s one area that LAC really struggles on defense (ranked 27th) – the line movement is right.
