This total is up a half point from it’s 45 open. Colts are 5-0 O/U vs winning teams this season averaging 49 points in those games. Those opponents may have had more explosive offenses but we have seen New England can put up points.
Both teams want to run the ball and both are in the top 10 (NE-9th and IND-2nd in Rush Yds/ game). However, both are mid tier in defending the run (NE-18th, IND-16th rush yds against/ game). Indy’s defense isn’t what it was last year. I don’t see them shutting out the Pats altogether here. The Patriots have also went over the last 3 times they have allowed teams to rush over 110 yards, which we know the Colts are capable of as they average over 150 yds/game.
This game should be a get up spot for the Colts. We’ve seen them blow leads to good teams before and it is difficult to bet against Bill Belichek, no doubt. The Colts need this one for playoff position trailing the Titans in their division. Indy is also tied with the Vikings as the best 1H ATS squad at 10-3. As square as it sounds, I’ll lay the points with the fav in the first half and take the over in this standalone primetime game.
312 IND 1H-1/2*(-105)
IND OV 45 1/2* (-110)
See more of my personal plays on Action App @ kris_lundborg or get my top plays at my new Patreon, +22 units L3 weeks!
Saturday card has the 1000% NBA Non Conf. Total of the Year and 4 big Bowl plays including an Early 6*. an Executive Level Tier 1 and a 30-4 Totals play. In the NFL The AFC Game of the Month NCAAB Exclusive RPI scale Power Systems up after noon. New Mexico Bowl Comp play below.
The Saturday Comp play is on UTEP Plus the 11-12 points in the New Mexico Bowl at 2:15 eastern. Fresno St fits a powerful system that plays against Pre New years day favorites of 8 or more off a win where they scored 30 or more. Both Teams have similarly ranked defenses. Fresno has failed to cover 6 of 7 as a bowl favorite and have failed to cover 4 of 5 vs Conference USA Teams. Meanwhile, UTEP has covered 4 straight after rushing for under 100 yards. The Miners may not win but can stay in this game and grab the cover as a double digit dog. On Saturday a huge cad is up with the NBA Non conference Total of the Year and 4 big Bowl moves including a TIER 1 and a 6*. In the NFL The AFC perfect System Play of the Month and NCAAB RPI Scale system plays. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we expect another big day. For the New Mexico Bowl comp play. Take the 11-12 points with UTEP. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Sorry for the time away my friends. End of year is the busiest time for me at that regular job of mine. I’ve still been putting out picks to subscribers, but haven’t had time to do much writing. That should change after next week as we start diving even more into college basketball.
For Bowl season I’ve decided to put out a play for every single game. For games I wouldn’t normally play or leans those will come out as 1 Unit plays. For games I have already bet or I feel there is a bigger edge on, you’ll see those as multi-unit plays. You can get all my premium plays here at Theoddsbreakers. We started Bowl season 2-0 on Friday night.
We’ve got 6 games coming up on Saturday. I’m going to focus in on the first where Western Kentucky taking on Appalachian State. Both teams dropped their conference championships coming into the Bowl game with UTSA beating WKU 49-41 and ULL dropping App St. 24-16.
App State’s offense was on a roll before running into Louisiana. Outside of ULL since September 18th, App State has averaged 41.1 points per game. Top receiving threat Corey Sutton will be out for this game, but QB Clemson transfer Chase Brice has spread the ball around well this year to his top three receivers with them having 61,55 and 51 catches. Reciever Thomas Hennigan is third in active career receptions with 237 and someone will step up and become that third option. On the ground they have a two-pronged attack in Nate Noel (5.5 ypc) and Camerun Peoples (5.4 ypc) who should run wild against WKU’s front seven and their 98th ranked defense in rushing success. During WKU’s 7 game win streak before the conference championship game the Hilltoppers held opponents to 18.9ppg. Much like App State offense had an Achilles heel so did the WKU defense. That 7 game win streak was book ended by UTSA where they gave up 50.5 ppg to them and their potent offensive attack. The WKU defense will need to continue to force turnovers to keep App St. from gliding down the field every possession.
When WKU has the ball they will get to revel in one more game of Offensive coordinator Zach Kittley’s offense. They won’t run much unless they’re up late, but that’s because QB Bailey Zappe has turned this offense into his own after coming on board with Kittley from Houston Baptist. Riding the scheme and his talented arm strength the Hilltopper’s signal caller comes into the leading the country with 5,545 yards passing and 56 TDs. They come in #1 in the nation in passing success and while App St hasn’t been a slouch on defense, ranking in the top 20 in both scoring and total defense, they haven’t seen a passing attack like WKU. Their defense is led by Sun Belt player of the year D’marco Jackson and a solid front seven that has racked up 108 tackles for loss on the year good for second in the country. They’ll need every one of them to slow down WKU.
This is a game where I don’t think either team lacks motivation. Both teams want to rebound from losing in the conference championship game and dropping a second game in a season to the same team (ULL and UTSA). WKU and Zappe have some historic marks within their reach. He is 289 Passing yards and 5 TDs away from setting single season FBS records. They’ll be throwing early and often trying to get his name in the record books. I give a slight edge to App St. here also as I think they’ll be the defense that gets the most straight stops, but it won’t be enough to keep this game from having both teams push towards 40 points or more.
In addition to these 2 free plays, I’m rolling with 2 premium CFB plays that are reserved for my members. I am hitting at a 55% clip in CFB this season am up +26.4u entering Bowl Season. Premium plays are hitting at a 60% clip and have netted my members +39.95u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*CFB(1u): Appalachian State -3(+100) vs Western Kentucky–10 AM CT
Analysis on this game starts at the 6:55 timestamp of my latest YouTube video.
*CFB(1u): Marshall/Louisiana UNDER 55.5–8:15 PM CT
Analysis on this game starts at the 34:12 timestamp of my latest YouTube video.
*CFB(2u): Western Kentucky/Appalachian State OVER 66.5(-110)–10 AM CT
Analysis on this game starts at the 6:55 timestamp of my latest YouTube video. I didn’t give out this Over on the show because I knew it was going to be a multiunit play for you guys… as you can tell, it took everything in me to bite my tongue and not give it away.
*CFB(1u): UAB/BYU UNDER 55(-110)–2:30 PM CT
Analysis on this game starts at the 17:14 timestamp of my latest YouTube video. Check it out below!
The NHL rolls on, very slowly and with masks but, the NHL does have 6 games going tonight. Not too many marquee matchups tonight with the best game being between the Capitals and Jets.
Just like yesterday, I’ll provide the most up to date news on all of the games going tonight in relation to any COVID issues.
News and Notes COVID related:
Washington Capitals @ Winnipeg Jets
Washington has several players out with COVID 19 including Kuznetsov, van Riemsdyk, Dowd, and Hathaway
The Jets head coach stepped down today, so they’ll have an interim behind the bench tonight
Arizona Coyotes @ Anaheim Ducks
Arizona has one player out with COVID-19 (Crouse) and also has several other injuries
Chicago Blackhawks: 11-15-2, 7th Central (6-6-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Nashville Predators
-132
+100
+1.5 (-250)
o5.5 (+115)
Chicago Blackhawks
+107
-120
-1.5 (+210)
u5.5 (-125)
Trends:
Predators are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Predators last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 8-1-2 in Blackhawks last 11 vs. Central.
Blackhawks are 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Preview:
Nashville Predators
The Predators are coming off a hard fought game last night where they faced Colorado. Both of these teams have several key players out with COVID-19.
Offensively, Nashville has been middle of the road with a -2.82 Goals For Above Expected and an average of 2.33 Goals For Per 60. The Predators have been solid on the Power Play ranking 8th. However, Chicago has been a disciplined team this season so I’m not sure how many opportunities they’ll get.
Defensively, the Predators have been much better with an average of 2.06 Goals Against Per 60. They have a -4.74 Goals Against Above Expected which ranks 13th. One area of concern is their Penalty Kill ranking 24th especially given the number of penalty minutes they average.
David Rittich is expected to start in net for the Predators tonight. Rittich has a -3.7 GSAx on the season through his 5 starts. Juuse Saros is the other goalie who may get the start and has been much better. He has a +8.9 GSAx on the season through 22 starts.
Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks have failed to rattle off back to back wins since the start of December. They’re coming off a solid win against Washington where they held off the Capitals rally late to win in Overtime 5-4. This was the second time they beat the Capitals this month.
Offensively, the Blackhawks haven’t been great with the second worst Goals For Per 60 (1.7). They have a -3.38 Goals For Above Expected which is middle of the road. While this metric ranks better it’s more telling of the lack of opportunities that Chicago is generating. Chicago currently ranks 31st in Shots on Goal Per Game generating only 29 High Danger Shots For.
Defensively, Chicago has been slightly better… They average 2.66 Goals Against Per 60 but have only given up 36 High Danger Shots Against. Another concerning statistic for Chicago is that their +10.81 Goals Against Above Expected which ranks 4th worst.
Marc-Andre Fleury is expected to get the start in net tonight with a -4.1 GSAx on the season. He hasn’t been great as of late allowing 4-0-5 goals in his last three starts. The only game he was good in, where he allowed 0 goals, was against Montreal who has a horrendous offense.
Picks:
UNDER 5.5 (-115)
One angle I see in this game that favors the Predators is in regards to the Shots Allowed. Chicago ranks 31st in Shots on Goal For while Nashville ranks 5th in Shots on Goal Allowed. The Blackhawks struggle to generate chances and with the Predators being able to shut teams down, it definitely favors Nashville.
I’m going to stay away from a side in this game and instead go with a play on the total. The total is only 5.5 in this game and given the expected goalies I’m going Under 5.5 here.
Teams that will be playing back to back games: Buffalo, Vegas, and Nashville
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MARCH 02: George Hill #3 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts against the Miami Heat during the first half at American Airlines Arena on March 02, 2020 in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Bucks are without Giannis for tonight’s game and are short-handed, but I think that is actually allowing us to grab the better team at a shorter number. We saw the Bucks pull away from the Pacers on Wednesday and end up winning by 15 even without Giannis AND Khris Middleton. Middleton could be back tonight, which would make the Bucks an even stronger play. Even if he can’t go, the Bucks are still a well-oiled machine that has proven it can win without their star(in the short term). The Pelicans are 9-21 this season and are coming off an exhilarating win in Oklahoma City that saw the game end with a full-court buzzer beater. This team has won back-to-back games just once this season, and I have a feeling this team might be feeling a little too good about themselves for beating a really bad Thunder team. The Bucks’ injury situation has steamed this number down, but I have no problem playing against that steam and laying the 2 with the defending champs.
In this video, I break down 11 different CFB Bowl games that take place before Christmas Day! I left timestamps in the description so you can jump from game-to-game as you wish. I will be back with Part 2/3 on Sunday, December 26th as we gear up for some of the bigger bowl games of the season. Thanks for watching!
