Another day in NBA betting that’s tough to handicap. But after another 2-0 day, we come at it confidently. How about them Chiefs at -3 too, eh?! Let’s go!
NBA Plays:
- Warriors/Celtics under 214 **
- Hornets ML *
- Hornets/Blazers over 228.5 **
Premiums, 12.17
NHL Preview & Picks – December 16, 2021
The NHL continues despite having some issues with COVID… We have 10 games going tonight with some solid matchups.
I also offer some news and notes related to the current outbreak the NHL is suffering. Calgary is continuing to postpone their games with 17 more cases recently confirmed. There is really no end in sight for this squad or an expected return date. It may be after Christmas break at this point.
Also, the majority of the NHL game totals tonight are listed at 5.5 which is extremely rare given the amount of goals we have seen this year. Just something to note.
News and Notes COVID related:
- Los Angeles Kings @ Florida Panthers
- The Panthers are favorited in this game but, do have a COVID outbreak. They also have a few key injuries so be very careful playing Florida at home here.
- Philadelphia Flyers @ Montreal Canadiens
- This game is also injury ridden so be sure to check the final lineups before placing a bet if you have an angle on this game.
- Vegas Golden Knights @ New Jersey Devils
- The Devils do have two players out with COVID so be sure to check that they’re not more players out.
- Detroit Red Wings @ Carolina Hurricanes
- The Hurricanes are experiencing a COVID outbreak with several key pieces missing in their lineup. Detroit only currently has one player out with COVID.
- Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
- Nashville is currently experiencing an outbreak while Colorado only has one guy on COVID reserve.
- Vancouver Canucks @ San Jose Sharks
- While Vancouver is red hot under their new coach, they are experiencing an outbreak with several players out.
Boston Bruins @ New York Islanders
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Boston Bruins: 14-9-2, 5th Atlantic (7-4-1 Away)
- New York Islanders: 7-12-5, 8th Metropolitan (1-5-2 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Boston Bruins | -129 | +110 | +1.5 (-250) | o5.5 (+115) |
| New York Islanders | +117 | -130 | -1.5 (+210) | u5.5 (-125) |
Trends:
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Boston’s last 8 games.
- Boston are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Islanders’ last 6 games.
- NY Islanders are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games at home.
Preview:
Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins start a three game road trip tonight as they face the Islanders tonight. They’ll be off tomorrow but will have back to back’s against Montreal and Ottawa.
The Bruins have had a decent start to the season but are currently suffering some COVID-19 issues. Their top scorers Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron are both out for tonight’s matchup. In addition to those two, Craig Smith is also out.
Offensively, Boston has one of the worst Goals For Above Expected with a -9.55. This number would be less concerning if they were generating an absurd number of scoring chances but they’re not. They have 52.55 Expected Goals For which ranks middle of the league and have only scored 43. The Bruins are averaging 2.11 Goals For Per 60 with 2.55 Expected Goals For Per 60. Without Bergeron and Pastrnak in the lineup, Charlie McAoy is their leading scorer with 15 points through 24 games.
On the opposite side of the puck, the Bruins have a +0.93 Goals Against Above Expected. They’re averaging 2.11 Goals Against Per 60 with a 2.06 Expected Goals Against Per 60. One positive for the Bruins is that they have allowed the lowest High Danger Shots Against (32).
In net, Boston has had some struggles. Jeremy Swayman has been their best goalie with a +1.5 GSAx while Linus Ullmark is right behind him with a +0.9 GSAx.
New York Islanders
The Islanders finally got their first win in their new building on Saturday against the Devils. New York has struggled this year after making it to the Eastern Conference finals last year season.
Just like the Bruins, the Islanders have a few key players out with COVID-19 as well. Matthew Barzal and Zedeno Chara are both out for tonight’s matchup.
Again, like Boston, the Islanders are struggling on offense. The Islanders have a worse Goals For Above Expected with a -10.67. They’re averaging 1.76 Goals For Per 60 with a 2.26 Expected Goals For Per 60. New York’s leading scorer is Barzal but without him in the lineup it’s Oliver Wahlstrom who has 13 points in 24 games.
The Isles have been better defensively with a -2.43 Goals Against Above Expected. They average 2.36 Goals Against Per 60. New York’s Penalty Kill has been good this year ranking 8th which is good given their undisciplined play style.
Ilya Sorokin is expected to get the start in net with a +5.8 GSAx through 18 games played.
Picks:
- UNDER 5.5 (-125)
With both teams top scorers out, I’m looking at the under in this matchup tonight. While Boston and New York haven’t been stellar defensively, they have been worse on offense. In addition to the lack of production up front, both expected goalies do have a positive Goals Saved Above Expected which is another encouraging sign.
Other Plays for Tonight:
- COLUMBUS/ EDMONTON OVER 6.0 (-115)
- Both of these teams have high powered offenses and sub par defenses. Even though the Oilers have been going under as of late, I think this game still goes over. Columbus is also allowing more goals on the road by a significant margin.
Given all the injury news I have a feeling we’ll be seeing a lot of close games tonight with several of them going into overtime. So if you’re looking for some fun bets tonight, I would look at “Draw” on the 60 Minute Line. Here’s some of my favorites:
- Boston/ New York Islanders 60 Minute Line – Draw (+320)
- Ottawa/ Tampa Bay 60 Minute Line – Draw (+370)
- Detroit/ Carolina 60 Minute Line – Draw (+350)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
College Football Bowl Games December 17th – 18th – Free Plays, Analysis and Leans – Sports Betting
Dec. 17 – Bahamas Bowl, Nassau, Bahamas: Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo -10 O/U 52, ESPN, noon
Motivation: Middle Tennessee – Medium – They are happy to make a bowl but also pretty happy to Party in the Bahamas. Toledo – Medium – Same deal here. Great destination for kids from Ohio and they should have some fun here as well as put forth a decent effort.
Injury/Hold outs: None really
SOS: Both schedules equal with Toledo being 128th on Sagarin To MTSU at 126th.
Coach Bowl ATS: Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee, 2-6 & Jason Candle, Toledo, 1-3
Metrics: My power ratings have Toledo -7.5 but my number is around -10 with the metrics. Toledo has a +1.7 net yard per play advantage. Rushing advantage for Toledo who ranks 3rd in rush EPA while Middle Tennessee ranks 66th in opponent rush EPA.
Decision: Lean Toledo -10 – I am concerned that their defense could allow a back door and my power ratings do not agree here.
Dec. 17 – Cure Bowl, Orlando, Florida: Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois +10 O/U 63.5, ESPN2, 6 p.m.
Motivation: Northern Illinois – Medium Low – This team won the Mac Championship and celebrating while partying in Orlando could be the better option. Coastal Carolina – Medium – Coastal went through a lot of adversity when they lost QB Grayson McCall for a few weeks but he is back and they will want to win. They did have higher hopes earlier in the season.
Injury/Hold outs: Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall could hold out for the NFL.
SOS: Coastal 148th on Sagarin and NIU is 94th
Coach Bowl ATS: Thomas Hammock is N/A and Jamey Chadwell, Coastal Carolina, 0-1
Metrics: My power number is Coastal -10.75. NIU is 128th in opponent Rush EPA while Coastal Carolina is 12th in rush EPA. Massive discrepancy. Coastal at 5.7 yards per rush and NIU gives that up. Coastal has a 3.2 Net yard per play advantage as well. Coastal is also number 1 in offensive success rate to NIU at 124th in defensive success rate.
Decision: Strong lean to Coastal Carolina -10, If Grayson plays, I might have to play Coastal.
Dec. 18 – Boca Raton Bowl, Boca Raton, Fla.: Appalachian State vs. Western Kentucky +3 O/U 67, ESPN, 11 a.m.
Motivation: Appalachian State – Medium High – They lost the conference championship but they will want to end the season on a good note. Western Kentucky – Medium – Great season for the Hilltoppers but they lost their championship game to UTSA. They also go here to play FAU sometimes during the season and some of the player were here last year for their conference game.
Injury/Hold outs: Quarterback Bailey Zappe — who could break Joe Burrow’s single-season touchdown record — looks like he will play as of this moment. Appalachian State wide receiver Corey Sutton will miss the game after undergoing surgery.
SOS: 103rd for Appalachian State and 109th for Western Kentucky.
Coach Bowl ATS: Shawn Clark, Appalachian State, 1-1 andTyson Helton, Western Kentucky, 0-1-1
Metrics: Western Kentucky at 1.6 yards per play to Appalachian State at 1.24. My power number is App State -4 but there is familiarity with the location field for Western Kentucky. App State might have some success running the ball at 4.66 yards per rush to Western allowing 4. The Hill Toppers have the QB advantage and rank 3rd in offensive passing success rate while App State ranks 23rd on defense.
Decision: I think the spread is correct but the total is low and I like the over. Western Kentucky ranks 5th in pace of play and should control the pace if winning. Western Kentucky averages 43 points per game to Appalachian State averaging 34.
Over 67 – 3 stars
Dec. 18 – New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, N.M.: Fresno State vs. Texas-El Paso +11.5 O/U 50, ESPN, 2:15 p.m.
Motivation: Fresno State – Medium Low – Fresno State had higher hopes but they will be down here on business. Not a great destination for either team. UTEP – Medium Low – UTEP is probably very happy to FINALLY get a bowl game yet really bummed out that they have to go to Albuquerque which is the closest main city to them anyways. Just getting to a bowl was the prize.
Injury/Hold outs: Fresno State will not have the services of head coach Kalen DeBoer, who recently took the same job at Washington. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb will also join DeBoer in Seattle. The assistants will step it up to call plays.
SOS: Fresno at 84 with UTEP at 136
Coach Bowl ATS: N/A
Metrics: Fresno State 25th in offensive success rate while UTEP is 125th on defense. Fresno has a .4 net yard per play advantage and when we saw UTEP step up in competition vs Boise State, it wasn’t pretty. My power number is a massive -17.25 but Fresno being without their coach hurts it.
Decision: Fresno has a .4 net yard per play advantage in a much harder conference and I think that they were actually the best team but didn’t get to play in the title game. I think the kids will still be motivated to play and should win even without their coaches. Lean Fresno -11.5
Dec. 18 – Independence Bowl, Shreveport, La.: Brigham Young vs. Alabama-Birmingham +6.5 O/U 55, ABC, 3:30 p.m.
Motivation: BYU – Medium Low – I can almost guarantee you that BYU had much higher hopes in their bowl asperations when they beat teams like ASU, UTAH and USC. UAB – Medium High – UAB had higher hopes as well but getting to play BYU is a huge game for these kids.
Injury/Hold outs: UAB could be without leading rusher DeWayne McBride, who suffered an injury late in the season. He averaged 6.8 yards per carry and rushed for just under 1,200 yards.
SOS: 65th for BYU and 114th for UAB
Coach Bowl ATS: Kalani Sitake, BYU, 2-2 & Bill Clark, UAB, 2-1
Metrics: My power number is right on the nose here at -6.5 but what I will say is that Frank Clark is the better coach. BYU has the better offense ranking 11th in success rate to UAB’s 63rd, but UAB has the better defense ranking 20th in success rate to BYU’s 101st. All the motivation is to UAB in this game in my opinion and I will lean them and hope for a 7.5 or better.
Decision: Wait for a better number
Dec. 18 – LendingTree Bowl, Mobile, Ala.: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty -9 O/U 58.5, ESPN, 5:45 p.m.
Motivation: Eastern Michigan – Medium Low – This team is lucky to get a bowl game and Mobile is a nice play to play by the Ocean. The kids will use this as a vacation. Liberty – Medium – This team seemed to lose Motivation at the end of the season some but they will probably get up for this game.
Injury/Hold outs: None but QB Malik Willis, who some project as a first-round draft pick, should be playing for the Flames.
SOS: Eastern Michigan is 118th and Liberty is 108th
Coach Bowl ATS: Hugh Freeze, Liberty, 4-1 and Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan, 3-0
Metrics: Eastern Michigan and Liberty were both up and down all season. Eastern Michigan is a bad -.6 Yards per play to Liberty’s +1.4. The Eagles are also a bad 83rd in EPA margin to Liberty’s 34th.
Decision: It’s too bad that both of these coaches are great in bowl ATS and have to face each other. I have Liberty by 13.5 points here on my power ratings so I might be a player here for something small.
Liberty -9 – 1.5 stars
Dec. 18 – LA Bowl, Los Angeles CA: Oregon State vs. Utah State +7.5 O/U 66.5, ABC, 7:30 p.m.
Motivation: Oregon State – Medium – This team almost made the Pac 12 title game but lost to rival Oregon. Nice for the kids to go to LA and they will have some fun yet they should want to win here as well. Utah State – Medium Low – Utah State won the Mountain West Championship with ease but they also were just in this area for that game. I think they treat this as a vacation more than business trip.
Injuries/Hold outs: Oregon State linebacker Avery Roberts, who led the Pac-12 in tackles, will miss the LA Bowl due to surgery. The Beavers’ second-leading receiver, Tre’Shaun Harrison, will miss the first half after getting ejected for a fight against Oregon.
SOS: Oregon State’s 24nd and Utah State’s is 83rd
Coach Bowl ATS: Johnathan Smith , Oregon State N/A and Blake Anderson, Utah State, 2-4
Metrics: Utah State is 41 in EPA Margin while Oregon State is 36. Oregon State should be able to pound the ball on the ground ranking 8th at 5.4 yards per rush to Utah State’s defense ranking 88th at 4.4. I will say that Utah State can get to the quarterback and has a pretty good defensive line ranking 4th in average line yards. The rest is a wash. My power rating is Oregon State -10.75 but I don’t like them losing their best tackler and a WR.
Decision: Lean to Oregon State but this spread could go down.
Dec. 18 – New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA: Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Marshall +5 O/U 55.5 , ESPN, 9:15 p.m.
Motivation: Louisiana – Medium – I think that this team wanted a better bowl game themselves, but it is at least a partial home game for their families only having to drive 135 miles. Marshall – Medium High – Marshall had some back luck in their final game vs Western Kentucky with their quarterback going out but they should be motivated here to make a statement.
Injuries/Hold outs: Louisiana Football coach Billy Napier is off to Florida and there will only be a few guys left to help coach this team. New head coach Michael Desormeaux will take over after being promoted from the tight ends coach and co-defensive coordinator and he should have some guys there to help. Louisiana running back Chris Smith, the team’s leading rusher, is also questionable for Saturday’s game. In regards to Marshall, quarterback Grant Wells will play.
SOS: 119th for Louisiana and 117th for Marshall
Coach Bowl ATS: Louisiana’s Michael Desormeaux N/A and Marshall’s Charles Huff N/A
Metrics: Marshall actually has a yards per play advantage here of about .5 but they are definitely in the easier conference. Lousiana ranks 22nd in EPA margin while Marshall ranks 64th. This means that Louisiana is the better team in the plus side of the field and on getting first downs. This is important when looking at who can get points on the board. Louisiana also ranks 13th in turnover margin to Marshal’s 94th.
Decision: Even with Coach Napier leaving, I think that Louisiana gets another big win here close to home. Play the -5
Louisiana -5 – 2.5 stars
NFL Free Pick: Chiefs at Chargers – December 16, 2021
We got a big AFC West matchup on TNF and we’re ready to bet on it! Check out this free play below, and make sure you catch our Official Circa Plays Sunday morning, right here at your one-stop-shot for betting information at TheOddsBreakers!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 46-23-1 (66%)
NBA: 98-78 (56%), +24.81 units
Chiefs -3 (-115), 2.3 units: I know I know – here we go again! The Chiefs are ascending at just the right time, aren’t they? We’re approaching Week 15, only 4 weeks remain in the regular season, and Kansas City is predictably in full control of their destiny in the AFC West. While a first round bye might be out of range (the Pats have a favorable schedule and they’re 9-4), this is a dangerous team headed towards January with a defense that’s playing exceptional right now. Over the last 6 weeks and 6 straight wins, the KC defense has allowed less than 11 ppg to their opponents. In the modern NFL, with the kind of scoring we see and with the kind of scoring the Chiefs often force teams to produce, that’s a shocking statistic. This is a Kansas City team who couldn’t get out of their own way in the first half of the season. Turnovers by Patrick Mahomes and a defense that would bend too far led to the former AFC Champions searching for answers before November. A win against the Giants on November 1 (go figure) shifted their season. Since then, the Chiefs have out-scored their opponents to 163-65; that’s an average margin of victory of 27.1 ppg during that span. That’s incredible and we can’t be afraid to say it: the Chiefs are BACK.
The LA Chargers beat the Chiefs earlier this year in a game where Kansas City turned the ball over 4 times. LAC, to their credit, did not make the same mistakes. Herbert played well, throwing for 281 yards and 4 touchdowns, and they committed no turnovers. The Chiefs gained more total yards (437 to 352), held the ball longer (32:31 to 27:29), and significantly out-gained LAC on the ground (186 to 77 rush yards). Mahomes uncharacteristically threw 2 INTs. Who thinks this game will play out the same way Thursday night? Not I.
This is a great spot for Kansas City. It’s a redemption game, they’re rolling with 6 straight wins, Mahomes isn’t turning the ball over, and over the past month+ their defense looks like the best unit in the league. One area to watch for: The KC offense has the best 3rd down conversion rate in the NFL (52.2%). Guess who has the worst defense on 3rd downs? The LA Chargers (they allow opponents to convert 3rd downs 49% of the time). I think the dominance for KC continues tonight in a revenge game at Sofi Stadium – take the Chiefs.
December 16th NBA Premium Play
*NBA(1u): Knicks -4.5(-110) @ Rockets–7:10 PM CT
The Knicks are not playing good basketball at the moment, losing 7 of their last 8. However, I am willing to trust them in this spot because I can always count on Tom Thibodeau taking regular season games very seriously. This Knicks team might be struggling, but it’s not for a lack of trying like we see so much across the rest of the league. This game is sets up very similarly to the Knicks’ only win recently; they lost a few tough games at home to playoff teams and got a nice bounce back spot against the Spurs, eventually winning 121-109. Coming off two home losses to Milwaukee and Golden State, I see this one setting up the same. Houston went on a scorching run recently, but they appear to be cooling down. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games, including last night in Cleveland(124-89 final). Their won win in that stretch came against the Hawks, a game in which Atlanta led by 13 after 3 quarters and completely folded late. Houston is still not completely healthy, and there’s a chance big man Christian Wood doesn’t play tonight. If that’s the case, then this number is going to jump considerably; even with Wood in there, I like the Knicks at this number in a “buy low” spot.
Rob Vinciletti: Thursday Preview and Pick + Thursday night NFL Info
The NFL Thursday Night Play of the month Headlines tonight with 2 undefeated Systems from the database. In Hoops we have a Massive 6* Top Play with 4 Power Angles and a Perfect League wide system. NHL Comp Play below.
The NHL Comp Pay is on Tampa Bay -1.5 Goals at 7:10 eastern. Tampa bounced back with a win last night but have 4-0 shutout loss revenge on an Ottawa team that pulled off back to back dog wins over both Florida teams. The Senators though have dropped 111 of 150 as a road dog and 8 of 11 with a day of rest. They are 19-44 after allowing 2 or less goals. Tampa has won 4 of 5 off a win and 40 of 55 at home. They are a top 10 team on offense and defense and will likely coast to a multiple goal win here. The Thursday night NFL Game Of The Month with 2 Perfect Systems is up along with a Rare 6* NBA Dominator system. We also have 2 of our weekend Bowl Plays up. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out tonight. For the NHL Comp play. Take Tampa Bay at -1.5 goals. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Ugly Pick, but Adding It
Domantas Sabonis, arguably the most important player for Indiana, is asking to leave the team. On a back-to-back after a loss with some derision on this team, I (unfortunately) must take the piss-poor-Pistons at +10, 1 unit.
Premiums 12.16 and NFL Week 15 Premiums
A 4-1 night is a nice anecdote after a rough start to the week. Let’s keep it going! Not a ton I like on the NBA card today…
Premiums, 12.16:
- Suns -8.5 **
- Maryland Baltimore County -3.5 *
NFL Premiums, Week 15:
- Chiefs -3 **
- Patriots +2.5 *
- Eagles -7 **
- Eagles/WFT under 44 *
- Bills -10.5 **
- Dolphins -10 *
- Cowboys -10.5 *
- Steelers ML **
- Jags -4 **
- Bengals +2.5 **
- Packers -5.5 **
- Bucs -10.5 ***
Podcast 88 – 21 – NFL Week 15 and College Football Bowl Plays December 17th – 22nd – Sharp Line Movements – UFC – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to discuss a HUGE weekend of bowl games and a ton of NFL games and Covid issues. First, Kiev talks about all the Covid going around and some of the best things to do from a betting standpoint. Then, we get into college bowl games with some info and plays on each game from December 17th to December 22nd! We talk about motivation, strength of schedule, coach bowl ATS, Metrics and more! Then, Kiev gives out a UFC play in the main event for the weekend. Next, Kiev discusses NFL week 15 with some game break downs and some more plays. After that, Kiev give out his Refuse To Lose teaser that is 6-8 this year yet 11-6 last year. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
NFL: Kansas City vs LA Chargers – Tennessee vs Pittsburgh and more!
NCAA: San Diego State vs UTSA – BYU vs UAB and more!
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Laying the Points with FarleyBets – Week 15 NFL Breakdown
You know what time it is! Steve and I are 46-23-1 in Circa, which puts us in the TOP 27 contestants! I really can’t yell LET’S GOOOOOO any louder but believe me, I’ll find a way if we keep this up! Here’s this week’s podcast with another full breakdown of the NFL slate – tune in every week and subscribe to TheOddsBreakers now!
