Addressing the COVID-outbreak and injury news coming out of Brooklyn, which is beyond annoying obviously, I still really love the under. It’s moved down but even at 215, I like it.
Weird day in the NBA but we should have seen that coming with a bunch of road favorites and shady lines. But how about them Rams! And we finally got a teaser (what’s it been like 4 weeks?)! Let’s go!
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps Army/Navy and NFL week 13 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores as well as some motivational spots for NFL Week 14. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for the college bowl season! Then, D-Nasty comes on and the guys talk some fantasy football for week 15. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed. Finally, Dave and Kiev give out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
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With a winner on the Spurs last night, I’ve now won my last 3 NBA premium plays. In addition to this free play, I’m rolling with 2 more NBA premium plays for tonight. Overall, premium plays are hitting at a 61% clip(83-53-1) and have netted my members +42.35u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Warriors -3(-110) @ Pacers–6:10 PM CT
I’ll admit that this almost seems too easy, but the Warriors are a team I feel comfortable entering into a trap line with. So far this season, Golden State(21-5) has failed to drop back-to-back games; coming off a loss in Philadelphia, conventional wisdom would tell you that the Warriors find a way to bounce back tonight, Indiana(12-16) has played better basketball as of late(3 straight wins), but this is a different caliber of matchup than Washington, New York, or Dallas presented them. With Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, and Malcolm Brogdon all being floated around as potential trade pieces, I wouldn’t say that things are too stable around the Pacers facility at the moment. I agree that Indiana is better than their record indicates, but this line is paying them too much respect. I’ll lay the short number with Steph Curry and the Warriors tonight.
Premium Plays: 83-53-1, +42.35u
*NBA(1u): Heat +5(-110) @ Cavaliers–6:10 PM CT
The Cavs have been playing great basketball as of late(won 7 of their last 9), but I think now is the time to look to “sell high” on them. While they jumped out to a massive lead against the Kings on Saturday, they were outscored by 15 in the second half. Even if you throw that nugget out, this team is massively overachieving without their star(Collin Sexton) in the lineup. Miami can be pretty inconsistent, but I like them in this role catching 5 points. The Heat have won each of their past 2 games rather convincingly(9 point win vs Bucks, 26 point win vs Bulls) and should carry that momentum into the first game of a 4 game road trip. I imagine the Cleveland love stems from the fact that Jimmy Butler is still out for Miami, but if you watched the way he has dragged the Heat down lately, that might be an addition by subtraction scenario. The Heat are playing well, and I think they’re catching far too many points tonight. I’ll take the road ‘dog.
*NBA(1u): Bucks ML(-120) @ Celtics–6:40 PM CT
The Celtics are in complete shambles right now having dropped 4 of their last 5 games. Sure, they’ve run into a tough stretch of their schedule, but they’ve been totally uncompetitive(15 point loss to Lakers, 21 point loss to Suns). Things won’t get easier tonight as they host the defending champs. This isn’t the best spot for Milwaukee being the 3rd game in 4 nights, but they didn’t push any of their starters too much yesterday in a blowout win against the Knicks. More importantly, this is a revenge game for Milwaukee after the Celtics stole won from the Bucks with Giannis out of the lineup back on November 12th. This is a Celtics team you can only look against at the moment, and with the Bucks’ recent success paired with the revenge spot, I have no problem paying the extra 10 cents and taking Milwaukee to win outright tonight.
We’re on one hell of a run in NBA premium picks, going 14-4-1 the last 7 days. For my premium picks every day directly to your inbox, hit the link below. Below is a free play that I really like on the Monday slate. Enjoy!
For my Premium Picks every day (we win, folks!), hit this link!
NFL Circa Picks: 45-23-1 (65%)
NBA: 94-73 (56%), +25.34 units
Warriors -4 (-110), 2 units: This line is climbing but you can still get the Warriors at -4 at some books. Even at -4.5 or -5, I like Golden State. The Warriors are off a rare loss Saturday night at the Wells Fargo Center, only their 5th loss this season. Predictably, that was one of those odd shooting games for Golden State. The Sixers’ Joel Embiid took over the contest, scoring 26 points and snagging 9 rebounds, and Philly had an all-around solid game from its contributors. The Warriors couldn’t say the same. Steph Curry shot only 6-20 from the floor (that’s shocking for Steph) and Golden State shot only 25% from beyond the arc as a team. They were out-rebounded and out-played in the paint, too.
A loss to the Sixers at Philly’s home court is nothing to feel too bad about. Still, the Warriors have always answered the call following a loss this year. In their 4 previous losses, they crushed their next opponent by margin: they beat OKC by 21, Brooklyn by 18, the Suns by 22 and the Magic by 31. If this were the late 90s and you were a wrestling fan, the Warriors would only have 2 words for the Pacers tonight: You’re next! (IYKYK)
Indiana has played really well lately. Despite whispers of trade-talk and the team tanking to transform their roster, the Pacers have cruised to 3 straight wins against quality opponents. They out-lasted the Wizards and crushed the Knicks and Mavericks. Most of their success can be credited to a fluid, healthy offense. Domantas Sabonis is their most important offensive player, flanked by Myles Turner, Malcolm Brodgon, and a rejuvenated Caris LeVert, who’s fought through injuries the past year but seems to be in a flow-state these days– he’s averaging over 15 ppg and often carries the team when they need a clutch bucket. LeVert’s sustained health is a real positive for Indiana and the Pacers’ offense is gelling, averaging 111.8 ppg over their last 5 contests. Their defense has shown sides of improvement, too.
And that’s probably why this line isn’t very inflated. The Pacers have an extra day of rest, they’re at home, and they’ve been more in-sync than usual. Unfortunately for Pacer-fans, I don’t think any of those intangibles will matter tonight. I don’t have to tell you but I’ll write it here anyway- the Warriors have the best net rating in the NBA, the league’s #1 defense, a top 5 offense, they have the best assist/turnover ratio, and they’re my #1 power rated team. Ergo, the Warriors are really, really good. I have this game at -6.5 in Golden State’s favor. It’s almost inevitable at this point that Steph Curry will have a big game tonight. But don’t take it from me- look up his games after he has a poor shooting performance – he almost always explodes in the next contest. Given the spot coming off a loss when the Warriors had such a bad shooting night, the value is on the away team. Take Golden State, especially if you can grab them around -4.
Hi guys – sorry, had no idea Luka wasn’t going to be in tonight’s game. I can’t take the Mavs at -3 on a back to back, even though I still lean that way. Thanks!
A good day in the NFL (and our teaser is still alive, praise the Lord), and another 2-0 NBA day. That’s 14-4-1 in NBA premium picks the last week– hoping you all have much bigger bankrolls after that! Here are today’s plays:
As Of Wednesday Afternoon 12/8/21
Sharp Sides:
Sharp Totals:
