The Spurs lost to the Nuggets last night by a wide margin, but in watching that game, the Nuggets played about as lights-out offensively as you could hope for. Being the second game of a double-header for those teams, the Spurs were expected to lose that game given they beat the Nuggets in the first go round. Accordingly, Gregg Popovich didn’t play any starter more than 22 minutes last night in an effort to save his guys’ energy for tonight. All I’ve heard lately is how the Pelicans are bound to go on a run, but without Zion Williamson in the mix, I don’t see that happening. This is an 8-20 basketball team we’re talking about, guys. New Orleans ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in FG%, 3PFG%, and turnovers and should present an easier matchup for the Spurs than Denver did last night. Rather than laying the short number, I’ll take the Spurs on the ML as my lone play for today.
Colorado Avalanche: 15-7-2, 4th Central (8-8-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Florida Panthers
-106
-125
-1.5 (+200)
o6.0 (-120)
Colorado Avalanche
-104
+105
+1.5 (-240)
u6.0 (+100)
Trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 5 games.
Florida are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado’s last 7 games.
Colorado are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
Preview:
The Avalanche come into this game on a three game win streak where they have scored 7 goals in all of those games. Colorado has one of the best, if not the best offense in the NHL but, will have their hands full tonight.
They face a Florida team that also has a high powered offense and a better defense. These teams have the best Goals For Per 60 with Colorado averaging 3.39 and Florida averaging 3.13. However in terms of goals against, Florida is giving up 2.04 while Colorado is averaging 2.91 against Per 60.
In terms of goalies, Florida also has the advantage as Sergei Bobrovsky has been confirmed the starter. He has a +14.0 GSAx on the year but, has struggled a bit as of late giving up 3 or more goals in 4 of his last 5 starts. Darcy Kuemper is expected for Colorado who enters tonight’s game with a -4.4 GSAx. Kuemper has also struggled recently giving up 3 goals in his last three starts.
Pick: OVER 6.5 (-110)
In terms of sides, this game is a compete stay away for me. The reason Colorado is favored in this matchup is the home ice advantage. That’s it. Florida is the better team and has been all season but, with Colorado getting some players back from injuries, they have seemed to have turned things around. Given the recent struggles in net for Bobrovsky I like the over here. Both teams have shown they can score, and even with the total being at 6.5, I think this game goes over.
Other Plays for Tonight:
VANCOUVER CANUCKS (+100)
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Only 2 NBA Premiums today to add onto our NFL Picks. Check out our Circa article just released at TheOddsBreakers and let’s have a winning NFL/NBA day!
Hello good people! You already know by now but I’ll say it anyway: Steve and I are in 40th place in Circa with a record of 44-22-1 heading into Week 14! We’ve hit at 65% all year, let’s see if we can get another great record today. Say prayers for us!
Detroit was remarkable last week coming back against the Vikings and winning their first NFL game of the season. I am actually happy for Dan Campbell and this team deserves it. Now they get to face a Broncos team with a QB who looked terrible last week and is looking for some redemption. The Broncos even with some of their injury woes still rank 14th in offensive EPA and 10th in defense. I would call that a little above average. Detroit ranks 31st and 29th in EPA respectively. Another major issue for the Lions, besides their overall strength, is injuries. The Lions have a slew of starters out due to Covid or the flu. I can imagine more could be announced today. They might not even have their kicker ready for the game. Finally, let’s not forget that the Lions are in a massive let down spot after getting their first win vs the Vikings last week. I got to go with Denver here and I think that they cover this large spread.
Denver -10.5 – 2 stars
LA Rams vs Arizona -2.5 O/U 51.5
Have you guys ever heard the term, “Big game Matt Stafford?” Well Neither have I. This quarterback always seems to lose when facing the better teams and we already saw this happen at home vs the Cardinals earlier this year. The Cardinals rank number 2 in EPA per play on offense and number 2 on defense while the Rams rank 4th and 9th respectively. I will say that the Rams have a .3 net yard per play advantage, but we have to remember that QB Kyle Murray missed some games for the Cardinals this year. I know that we can’t give the Cardinals 3 points for home field advantage and maybe it’s only about 1.5 points, but that doesn’t mean that the largest key number in the NFL being 3 shouldn’t factor in. I have the better team here at home laying a number lower than the 3. Can’t get much better here.
Sunday Card has a 28-0 NFL 6* Totals system, the NFC North Play of the Year on Sunday night and an Executive Level TIER 1. There is also an NCAAB RPI Scale Power System play headlining hoops. NFL Comp play below.
The NFL Comp Play for Sunday is on the Houston Texans plus the 8-9 points at 1:00 eastern. You may have to hold you nose a big here. However, home teams off a home shutout loss are 11-2 ats long term if they lost by 31 or more. The Texans have covered 9 of 13 after scoring 14 or less. Seattle is off a nice home dog win over SF but are really playing for pride here. They total the leagues 31st ranked defense in total yards. They have failed to cover 11 of 13 off a win, 7 of 8 after allowing 90 or less on the ground, 7 of 8 as a road favorite and 8 of 11 vs fellow losing teams. They may get the win here but the Texans keep it close at home. On Sunday the NFC North Game of the Year headlines along with an Executive Level TIER 1 and a 6* 28-0 NFL Totals System Play. In Hoops the lead play is a 5* NCAAB Exclusive RPI Scale system side. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go with Houston. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
After the red hot start the Dallas Cowboys had, who would have thought the week 14 match up with the WFT would have potential divisional title implications? Cowboys have been inconsistent as of late and Washington has been on fire. Shaping up for an epic/classic NFC East showdown!
NFL record through week 13: 105-81, +25.57 Units
Dal -4.5 (-110)
This week Mike McCarthy guaranteed a win vs. The WFT. As we know in the realm of sports whether it’s coaching, playing, or even sports betting this is a HUGE NO-NO. The media naturally had a field day with McCarthy’s comments and Ron Rivera responded by saying it was a, “big mistake” (literally rolling my eyes at this back and forth). Does this give WFT that extra motivation/”bulletin board material” to play harder and upset their division foe? This isn’t High School or College Football, this is the NFL and if this it what Washington needed to hear to be able to perform this week, then they already lost.
No secret Qb match up wise favors Dallas. Dak Prescott is 7-1 all-time against Washington and is currently carrying at 7-0 ATS record against the NFC East in his last seven games. Zeke has been slow and struggling with his knee injury making him a shell of himself. News coming out today that Pollard most likely will not play which is a huge hit to the Cowboys backfield. However, Corey Clement is more than capable of picking up the slack for Dallas in the back field, specifically in the screen department. Let’s not forget he was a critical piece in the backfield for Philadelphia and their Super Bowl win (Go Birds). The Cowboys are not afraid to throw the ball as we saw week 1 against Tampa Bay. Amari Cooper is 100% after his bout with Covid-19 and will be back for a full workload. This is where the Cowboys are dangerous, extremely dangerous. All three top receivers are finally a go with Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup healthy and ready to perform. Do not sleep on Dalton Shultz in the mix, the Cowboys offense is going to give Washington all they can handle.
Washington’s defense has been playing well as of late especially after losing key pieces in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. This week they are losing their DE James Smith and could potentially be very thin in the linebacker department. Especially if their starting MLB is out in Jamin Davis due to concussion protocol. It is only a matter of time for this patch work defense implodes, and the Cowboys are ready to expose it. Washington’s offense is predicated on controlling the clock and sustaining long drives with their run game. They lean heavily on Antonio Gibson, but Cowboys defense ranks 9th against the run and will be up for the task. Micah Parsons has been an absolute beast for Dallas this year. Looking to tee-off on Heinicke and allow Diggs clean up the mess on the back end.
Weather will not be a factor in this game, will come down to who is the better team. Dallas in all aspects are the better team. Let’s not over think this one and let the line being over the key number of 3 confuse us. Dallas wins- Mike McCarthy guarantees it and I am betting (keyword: betting) Dallas covers -4.5.
Thanks for the support and good luck!
Be sure to check out our Circa picks tomorrow morning as we are currently tied for 40th place!
The Sacramento Kings' Buddy Hield (24) celebrates a three-point basket as referee Marc Davis signals the play against the Phoenix Suns on March 23, 2019, at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. (Photo by Hector Amezcua/Sacramento Bee/TNS/Sipa USA)
In addition to this free play, I also have 2 premium NBA plays going tonight for my members. Since starting on September 1st, premium plays are hitting at a 60% clip and have netted my members +38.85u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Kings +6.5(-110) @ Cavaliers–7:10 PM CT
I lost a heart-breaker on the Kings last night as De’Aaron Fox missed 2 FT’s in the closing seconds. Even so, this Kings team is playing better than people would think; entering last night’s game, Sacramento had won 3 straight(including 2 against the Clippers). If not for allowing the Hornets to shoot 55% from the floor last night, that would’ve moved to 4 straight last night. The Cavaliers have gone on a nice run recently, but I’m not really buying into that as sustainable. This is the second game of a back-to-back for both teams, so I don’t see a clear rest advantage on either side. Either way, this is too many points for my liking; I’ll go ahead and grab the road dog.
CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 6: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets passes the ball during the game against the Chicago Bulls on December 6, 2021 at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images)
Premium Plays: 80-53-1, +38.85u
*NBA(1.5u): Nuggets ML(-120) @ Spurs–7:40 PM CT
These teams played on Thursday night, with the Spurs prevailing in a 123-111 win. I love playing on the team that lost the 1st game of a double-header, especially when I power rate that team higher than the opposition. Denver has been depleted with injuries in their backcourt, but even so, I still power rate them higher than San Antonio because of their advantage down low with Nikola Jokic. The Spurs(9-15) are sporadic at best and are well aware that they aren’t a serious playoff contender this season. With a win tonight, Denver would get back to .500 and cap off a winning road trip. I think they do just that with a win tonight.
*NBA(1u): Heat ML(-115) vs Bulls–7:10 PM CT
The Bulls(17-9) have been one of the most surprising teams in the NBA this season, but they are limping into this game in Miami with Demar DeRozan, Derrick Jones Jr, Coby White, and Patrick Williams all out tonight. They looked uninspired in their last game in Cleveland and are likely looking ahead to an upcoming home stand. Miami has let me down a few times here recently, but they are coming off a massive win against the Bucks on Wednesday. With 2 days to rest up for this one, they really need to build off that win and create some momentum; with a loss tonight, that Milwaukee win means next to nothing. Jimmy Butler is out for the Heat tonight, but if you watched him earlier this week, that might not be the worst thing for this Miami team. There’s a reason the Heat are favored tonight. Rather than laying the 1 point, I’ll pay the extra 5 cents and take the Heat on the ML.
