More plays may come later today but for now, I think these are great early values. Let’s have another winning day in the ol’ NBA! (Looking into CBB more, too- TBD)
NBA Picks:
- Bucks -7 **
- Thunder +7 *
- Kings -7 **
Premiums, 12.8
Adding Knicks tonight
Adding the Knicks ML (-120) to tonight’s picks for 1.2 units – this line is just wrong. Take the Nets at -1.5 if you can but I have NO issue betting on them at -3.5 like we had before. Are we losing value? Sure, but the Nets are a way better team and match up really well.
Here’s to a good night! –Chris
December 7th NBA Free Play
Coming off a premium loser(Heat -4.5) last night, I’m looking to bounce back with a lone NBA winner today. Even with a recent slide, my premium plays are hitting at a 61% clip(80-50-1) and have netted my members +42.2u. To become a premium member, visit https://theoddsbreakers.com/membership-account/membership-checkout/?level=9
*NBA(1u): Knicks ML(-120) @ Spurs–7:40 PM CT
These teams are on opposite trajectories right now, but I unequivocally power rate the Knicks higher than the Spurs. Additionally, this is a tough spot for San Antonio being the second game of a back-to-back and a bad travel spot. The Spurs fought hard in a 4 point loss in Phoenix last night, but they now have to bring that same energy tonight against a Knicks team that is eager to right the ship. The Knicks are at full strength tonight with 2 off days in between tonight and their last game against Denver. New York has come out of the gates slow in each of their last 2 games against the Bulls and Nuggets, so look for a well-coached, young group to come out hot tonight. The Spurs are on a nice little run, but this isn’t a roster that is set up to carry that on for much longer. I’m looking at the Knicks to pull out a much-needed win tonight and for San Antonio to show signs of regression in a tough scheduling spot. Knicks ML is the play.
2 Free Premium Picks with Analysis for Tuesday, December 7th
We are 4-0 in our last 4 College Basketball plays and 27-18 overall. We 4 CBB premium plays for tonight and two are below but the lines may have changed since this was written. Another reason why you should sign up now for my All Access Sides Subscription exclusively at the OddsBreakers and get the number BEFORE it moves!
The Vermont Catamounts and Providence Friars face off on Tuesday in a non-conference college basketball showdown at Alumni Hall in Rhode Island. The Catamounts come into this game with a 6-3 record after beating up on Dartmouth last Wednesday while the Friars enter with an 8-1 record beating an above average Rhode Island team on Saturday by a score of 66-52. Vermont has scored 65.3 points per game on 43.1% and surrender 57.8 points on 38.7% on defense while Providence puts up 71.6 points per contest on 45.1% from the field and, defensively, allows 63.8 points per game on 41.4% shooting from the floor. This will be a step up in class as Vermont has only played one team within the top 100, losing to Maryland by 11 and while the defensive stats look good, they have been playing offenses that only score 67 points per game and shoot 41% from the floor. This should be a slower paced game as the Catamounts operate with a 17.5 second average time of possession (207th in nation) and the Friars are even slower at 18.2 seconds per possession (277th in the country). Additionally, the Catamounts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games while the Friars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. If your looking to play a total, I would lean towards the under but my play for this game will be on the side. Take Providence -6
The Virginia Cavaliers square off for an in state showdown against the James Madison Dukes at Athletic Union Bank Center in Harrisonburg, Virginia on Tuesday night. Virginia won its ACC opener against Pittsburgh over the weekend to improve to 6-3 through its first nine games. Meanwhile, James Madison has raced out to a 7-2 mark in its first nine contests but will be searching for a statement win at home against a Power Five opponent. The Cavaliers come in averaging 62.3 points per game on 43.9% shooting and only give up 56.2 points per game on 39.1% from the field on defense while the Dukes enter putting up 79.2 points per game on 47% from the floor and are giving up 64.2 points per game on 41.3% shooting. This will be a huge step up in class for James Madison having faced only one team in the top 100, losing to Murray St by 12 points, and they have been playing defenses that surrender 77.7 points per game on 47% shooting. Virginia’s defense will give the Duke’s a rude awakening tonight. The 227th ranked JMU offense in effective field goal percentage will be up against the 71st ranked Virginia defense and will have to hold on the the ball if they have a shot. The Duke’s rank 234th in turnover percentage on the offensive end. Also, Virginia scores most of their points inside the arc and they will be going up against the 278th ranked James Madison defensive in giving up the two-point shot. This will be a lower scoring game with the Cavaliers winning by 6 or more. Take Virginia -4
Fantasy Football Week 14
Bye Weeks: Philadelphia Eagles, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots
Key Injuries:
- RB Kenyon Drake with a broken Ankle and out for the season.
- WR Adam Thielen with a high ankle sprain.
- QB Daniel Jones didn’t play and might not again.
- WR Corey Davis out for the season.
- RB Elijah Mitchell out with head injury.
- TE Logan Thomas out with a torn ACL.
Waiver Wire:
- RB Payton Barber for Drake injury.
- WR Jamison Crowder for Corey Davis injury.
- RB JaMycal Hasty for the Mitchell injury.
- TE John Bates for the Logan Thomas injury.
- WR Amon Ra St. Brown 12 targets and a TD.
- WR Jakeem Grant got 7 targets for the Bears.
- WR KJ Osborne will be the WR you want for the Thielen injury.
Non-Starters trending up for NFL week 14
- WR Jamison Crowder being that he will get lots of targets.
- WR Amon Ra St. Brown is just getting tons of targets.
- RB Rashaad Penny vs the Texans is a good matchup.
- RB Mark Engram vs the Jets D.
- QB Taysom Hill vs the Jets D.
- RB Melvin Gordon vs the Lions bad D.
- TE David Njoku vs the Ravens pass D.
- WR Jarvis Landry vs a banged up Ravens secondary.
- WR Amari Cooper vs Washington is due for a big game.
- WR Brandon Ayuik vs Cincinnati might have a great game.
- RB Tony Pollard is getting a bunch of carries.
Busts:
- RB Nick Chubb vs Baltimore’s D is dangerous and he has been bad since the injury.
- QB Matt Ryan vs Carolina’s D is trouble.
- RB Darrell Henderson vs a tough Arizona D.
- RB Devin Singletary vs a tough Tampa D.
- WR Tee Higgins could struggle vs San Francisco’s D.
- RB Ezekiel Elliot vs Washington’s run D.
- RB Tevin Coleman vs Saints D.
Nasty Sleeper: Rashaad Penny vs the Texans. They are the worst rushing Defense in the league.
More Premiums
CBB Today:
- Arkansas -19 *
- Syracuse +9 *
CFB Lookahead:
- Army -7.5 **
One NBA Premium, 12.7
Hi Crew!
My only NBA Premium, as of now, is Nets -3 **
It was a good night in the NBA (+ units) Monday and a positive ATS week in the NFL– can’t hate that! Let’s keep it rollin’! I’ll look into CBB and if there’s any value in more NBA plays throughout the day and get back to you.
I do like one premium NFL play in Week 14 already: Texans +7.5. Talk soon,
Chris
Podcast 85 – 21 – NFL Week 13 and College Football Championship Week Recap – Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 14 – Sports Betting
We have a great show for you today! First, Kiev O’Neil recaps College Football Championship Week and NFL week 13 with some upsets and some great performances. Then, he gets into some misleading final scores in both sports and some motivational spots for College Football championship week and NFL Week 14. Next, Kiev gives out a College Football FREE PLAY for the college football playoffs! Then, D-Nasty comes on and the guys talk some fantasy football for week 14. Bye weeks, Waiver wire, non-starters trending up and players that could bust are all discussed. Finally, Dave and Kiev give out their nasty sleeper of the week that could help you win your fantasy football matchup or DFS! Should you have any questions for us or would like us to break down a game, please feel free to tweet us @TheOddsBreakers
Should you need a sportsbook please visit MyBookie.ag and use the promo code, “TheOddsbreakers” to get a 100% sign up bonus!!!! Terms, conditions and location apply.
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If you want to subscribe to and get some very frequent winners Click Here, please become a member of The OddsBreakers by clicking shop and gain access to premium picks BEFORE the line moves! Please visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev. We are giving away a FREE THE ODDSBREAKERS T-shirt with all signups. You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month and get some benefits and merchandise.
NHL Preview & Picks – December 7, 2021
Compared to Monday’s slate of games, Tuesday is much better. The NHL has 10 games going tonight with some incredible matchups. Some of the best games tonight include:
- Carolina Hurricanes @ Winnipeg Jets
- Florida Panthers @ St. Louis Blues
- Minnesota Wild @ Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers @ St. Louis Blues
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Florida Panthers: 17-4-3, 1st Atlantic (3-3-3 Away)
- St. Louis Blues: 12-8-4, 2nd Central (7-3-1 Home)
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Florida Panthers | -106 | -125 | -1.5 (+200) | o6.0 (-120) |
| St. Louis Blues | -104 | +105 | +1.5 (-240) | u6.0 (+100) |
Trends:
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis’ last 5 games.
- St. Louis are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida’s last 5 games.
- Florida are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
Preview:
St. Louis looks to split games against Florida as they lost on the road 4-3 in a Shootout on Saturday. Despite the close score, Florida won the Expected Goal battle 5.46 to 1.97. Ville Husso had a great game with a +2.46 GSAx while Sergei Bobrovsky struggled with a -1.02 GSAx.
Florida Panthers
The Panthers look to extend their three game winning streak but, are in a tough spot here facing the same team twice.
During that three game stretch, the Panthers have averaged 5.33 Goals For, which is higher than their season average of 3.83. Florida has one of the best Goals For Per 60 averaging 3.11. Although, they do have a -2.02 Goals For Above Expected. The Panthers also have the best xGoal % in the NHL with a 57.32%. With the crazy rate at which they’re generating scoring opportunities, they haven’t been able to capitalize on all of them, hence the negative Goals For Above Expected. This doesn’t worry me at all because they still have one of the best Goals For Per 60. Jonathan Huberdeau leads the team in points with 29 through 24 games. He has at least one point in his last three games in along with Aaron Ekblad. Nick Acciari, Anthony Duclair, and Mason Marchment are out for the Panthers tonight on offense. Aleksander Barkov, is questionable for tonight’s game.
Defensively, Florida has also been solid with a -5.93 Goals Against Above Expected. The Panthers are averaging 2.09 Goals Against Per 60, ranking 11th. One area of concern for this Florida defense has been in terms of High Danger Shots. The Panthers have given up 46 High Danger Shots Against which, is near the bottom of the league. They also haven’t been great on the Penalty Kill with a 81.9% success rate (17th). Gustav Forsling is questionable for tonight’s game as he’s recovering from an undisclosed injury.
Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to get the start tonight with a +13.1 GSAx on the season. In his last game, which was against the Blues, he struggled with a -1.02 GSAx as previously mentioned.
St. Louis Blues
The Blues started the season off hot like Florida but, have regressed a bit since then as one may expect. However, the Blues have been great at home with a 7-3-1 record and look to bounce back against a similar foe.
Offensively the St. Louis Blues have been good averaging 2.45 Goals For Per 60. Although, they do have one of the lowest xGoal % in the NHL with a 47.14%. The Blues Power Play has been one of the best ranking 2nd converting at a rate of 30.3%. St. Louis has been good at converting on scoring opportunities with a +1.09 Goals For Above Expected. Jordan Kyrou leads the Blues in points with 23 through 24 games. Pavel Buchnevich has been one of the hot players as of late tallying at least a point in five of the last six games. The Blues are without Klim Kostin, and Tyler Bozak on offense. David Perron is questionable for tonight’s game as he recovers from an upper body injury.
The Blues defensively have a -9.73 Goals Against Above Expected which ranks 7th. St. Louis is averaging 2.2 Goals Against Per 60. However, the have allowed 47 High Danger Shots Against which could be an issue here against this high powered Florida offense. In the last two games, the Blues have allowed an average of 4 goals per game. Ville Husso is expected to start in net tonight. His last start was against Florida where he had a +2.46 GSAx. On the year, he has a +4.4 GSAx in his six games played. Husso has been filling in for Jordan Binnington while he’s out indefinitely with Covid-19.
Pick:
- FLORIDA PANTHERS 3-WAY MONEYLINE (+130)
- The Panthers were better analytically in their last game vs St. Louis and should have had an easier win. I expected Sergei Bobrovsky to rebound here with a better effort in net. Florida is around a -130 moneyline but, I expect them to handle things in regulation.
Other Plays for Tonight:
- CALGARY FLAMES 3-WAY MONEYLINE (+105)
- The Flames have been good on the road this year and look to rebound against a tough loss vs Vegas on Sunday night. While San Jose has been slightly above .500 at home, Calgary has the significant advantage in net. I’ll take Calgary at a + money opportunity in this matchup.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
NBA Action- ORL at GSW
559 Orlando at Golden State
GS has not been as hot at home lately starting slower likely due to better competition in home games going 2-3 1Q Home ATS. I like the Magic as their smaller lineup matches up well and we have an up-and-comer in Cole Anthony that will look to prove himself against one of the best PG ever in Steph Curry. Anthony is good enough to have his team hang around, at least in the 1st Quarter. Because I expect him to come out looking to push Steph, I like Curry to respond in kind pushing this total over the lower 53 number in 1Q.
559 ORL 1Q OV 53 (-110)*
