*NBA(1.5u): Heat -4.5(-110) vs Grizzlies–6:40 PM CT
After picking up a solid road win in Indiana, the Heat came out flat in Milwaukee on Saturday. However, they expect to welcome back Jimmy Butler into the fold tonight, which should prompt an inspired performance from a bunch that still has plenty to prove. When the Heat go full throttle, they can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. Memphis has enjoyed a great deal of success as of late despite losing their centerpiece in Ja Morant, but that success simply isn’t sustainable without their superstar in the lineup. Everybody knows about the Grizzlies’ 73 point drubbing of the Thunder last week, but they followed that performance up with a mere 97 point output against the Mavericks. Even though they found a way to win in Dallas, they would’ve almost certainly dropped that game if not for Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis both being out. The Grizzlies got run out of the building when they first played the Heat back in October; that was with Ja Morant in the lineup and Bam Adebayo out for Miami. Without Morant, I’m hopping all over the Heat in this spot. I expect them to come out full throttle and win this game by double digits.
The Monday night Play of the Year headlines the card and is backed with a 100% Perfect Monday night System that dates to 1989. We also have a 5* NCAAB RPI Scale Power System Play. NHL Comp play below.
The NHL Comp Play is on the Over 5.5 goals in the Anaheim at Washington game at 7:10 eastern. Expect a higher scoring game here between a pair of top 7 scoring squads. The Caps have gone over in 5 of 6 at home, 5 of 6 at home and 14 of 20 after allowing 2 or less goals as well as 3 straight off a win. The Ducks gave gone over 5 straight as a dog, 7 of 9 on the road and the last 4 vs a winning team. Look for this game to play over. Our Monday night Game of the Year goes in NFL Action and is backed with a An Undefeated Monday night specific system. In College hoops we have our Exclusive RPI Scale 5* Power System play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on now as we start the week big. Fore the NHL Comp play. Go over 5.5 goals in the Anaheim at Washington game. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
We’re experiencing some regression in the NBA but it ain’t time to panic. The Pelicans, a good 3 point shooting team, shot only 25% from beyond the arc yesterday. The Rockets reign of terror continues.
Oh and how about that positive day in the NFL! Let’s go! I like a lot of NBA plays today but because of our recent slump, I’m trying to be especially judicious in my unit count. Added another NFL play, too. Onto Monday!
The NHL has 6 games going, with the only marquee matchup being the Washington Capitals vs the Anaheim Ducks. Besides that, it’s really not a great set of games on Monday night. There’s a lot of heavy favorites as well, which makes finding value a little tougher.
Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars
Time: 8:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN+
Arizona Coyotes: 5-17-2, 8th Central (3-10-1 Away)
Dallas Stars: 12-7-2, 5th Central (8-2-1 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Arizona Coyotes
+248
+240
+1.5 (-105)
o5.5 (+110)
Dallas Stars
-280
-310
-1.5 (-115)
u5.5 (-130)
Trends:
Arizona are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona’s last 10 games on the road.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas’ last 6 games.
Dallas are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
Preview:
The Dallas Stars on a six-game win streak and take on the struggling Arizona Coyotes. These teams faced off recently on November 27, where Dallas won 3-2 in Arizona. In that game Dallas went off at -200 on the moneyline but, is currently around -300 for tonight’s matchup.
Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes we’re expected to have a down year this season and they have lived up to expectations. Arizona has the second worst Goal % in the NHL with a 38.20%. Despite their horrendous Goal %, they only have a -3.02 Goals For Above Expected (15th worst). They’re averaging 1.72 Goals For Per 60 which ranks (30th) and have the worst Power Play % in the League, converting at a rate of only 12.1%. Looking at all the stats, Arizona has been the worst offensive team by far. Since they start of November, they have only scored more than 3 goals in 3 of their last 15 games. If you’re looking at Arizona player props check out Phil Kessel, who has a point in four of his last five.
Arizona has a +7.27 Goals Against Above Expected ranking 28th and are allowing an average of 2.78 Goals Against Per 60. Although they are allowing a lot of shots against (33.7 per game), they average only 1.58 High Danger Shots Against per game. Scott Wedgewood, who was claimed by Arizona earlier this year off waivers, is expected to get the start. He has a +0.8 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in his 12 games played this season. In his last three games, he has allowed an average of 4 goals against. Wedgewood had a -0.42 GSAx when he started vs Dallas on November 27th.
Dallas Stars
While the Stars have been better as of late, they are still struggling offensively on the year with a -5.84 Goals For Above Expected. Dallas is averaging 1.95 Goals For Per 60 and 2.81 Goals Per Game. However, during their six game winning streak they’re averaging 3.5 Goals For Per Game. One strong point for Dallas has been their ability to convert on the Power Play which currently ranks 4th. They also have been great on the Faceoff’s which has led to an increase in puck possession. One mismatch may be Dallas’ Power Play that ranks 4th compared to Arizona’s Penalty Kill that ranks 29th. Joe Pavelski leads the team in points with 19 through 21. He has been great as of late, collecting 2 points or more in his last 4 games and should be someone you target for player props. Jason Robertson is also on a five game point streak so keep an eye out for him as well.
Defensively, Dallas has been slightly above average with a -1.77 Goals Against Above Expected. They’re allowing an average of 2.06 Goals Against Per 60 and 2.71 Goals Allowed Per Game. In their last 6 games, Dallas is averaging 1.6 Goals Against. The Stars have allowed the fewest High Danger Shots Against, 27. Braden Holtby, is expected to get the start in net tonight. He has a +2.4 Goals Saved Above Expected on the year which is the second best GSAx on the team. In his last game vs the Coyotes, he had a +0.09 GSAx.
Picks:
DALLAS STARS 1ST PERIOD -0.5 (+105)
When looking at this game, it’s hard to find value on the Dallas Stars but, at + money, this a great opportunity. Arizona is averaging 0.50 Goals For and 1.13 Goals Against in the 1st Period this year. Dallas on the other hand, is averaging 0.86 Goals For and 0.62 Goals Against in the 1st Period. The Stars have had a few days off so they should be ready to go for this matchup at home. The only downside is that this game is pointing to the under but, given the Coyotes rough starts to games, I think Dallas can grab one early. Also, in their last game which took place a little over a week ago, Dallas got out to a 2-1 lead in the 1st Period.
Other Plays for Tonight:
ANA/ WSH OVER 5.5 (-120)
Both teams have high powered offenses that should be on display tonight. They both have an xGoal % over 50% and average 3.1 (WSH) and 2.39 (ANA) Goals For Per 60 respectively. While the Caps do have a solid defense, Anaheim does not with a +4.05 Goals Against Above Expected. If Gibson does get the start for the Ducks, it would be an advantage for us as he has a -3.3 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). While Samsonov, does have a + GSAx, he’s been a bit iffy besides his last game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Steve and I are in the top 2% of the Circa Millions Contest right now, hitting at a rate of 63% heading into Week 13. Here are our official picks for this weekend:
We hope that you enjoyed your 3-0 free plays in college football this week! Let’s take a look into this game. I see action on both sides of the number here. Some people won’t get off of the Chargers who has proven to be a better road team at 8-5 ATS since 2020, yet the Bengals are certainly an above average team laying a short price at home. For me, I think the total is the best look here. The Chargers rank 7th on offense in EPA per play and Justin Herbert is an MVP candidate this year. Joe Burrow hasn’t been no slouch either ranking 7th in EPA/CPOE composite. The Chargers defense however has been a sieve allowing the worst rushing performances each game and now they are without their best cover corner in Asante Samuel Jr. due to injury. They are also banged up some at safety. The Bengals have a good defense ranking 7th in EPA/play but the issue here is that they have been week against pass catching running backs and the Browns and the Jets have proven that. I think that Austin Eckler will get his today but I am not sure it will be enough to keep up with the Bengals. Instead I will grab the over 49.5 as my number is around 53.
Over 49.5 – 2.5 stars
6pt Teaser: Vikings to -1 with the Cardinals to -1.5 – 2 stars
Sunday card has the 100% NFL Divisional Game of the Year, AFC Total of the Month, an NFL Executive Level TIER and Sunday night Football. In hoops the lead play is an early NBA Game of the week and NCAAB Later, NFL Comp play below.
The NFL Comp play is on the Under in the Tampa at Atlanta game at 1:00 eastern. This game fits the powerful 17-1 Under system below which pertains to totals that are 48 or higher and passing attempts rations for the road team. The first meeting Atlanta outplayed Tampa on the road but was done in by costly turnovers in a higher scoring game. This go around should be lower scoring and we note that Tampa has played under in 4 of 5 and 17 of 22 vs the division. The Falcons are 11 of 14 under at home vs a team with a winning road record and have stayed under in 7 of 9 as a home dog. Look for this game to stay under today. On Sunday the Divisional Game of the Year headlines in the NFL along with an Executive level TIER, and the AFC Total Of the Month and Sunday night Football. In NBA Action we are on the early afternoon game as our Play of the week. NCAAB out later on. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook ti Jump on and end the week big. For the NFL Comp play. Go under the total Bucs vs Falcons. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Hope everyone has had a great week, looking forward to these games for week 13! Here are two picks I really like and hope going against the grain isn’t too cute this week. Thanks everyone for your support and good luck this week!
Record through week 12: 97-74 +25.42 Units on the season
Eagles -5 (-110)
Minshew mania time! It has been reported Jalen Hurts has been ruled out for tomorrows bout with the Jets. However, I have also seen the Eagles want to see how Hurts is feeling on gameday before making any final decisions about his status. This is a great spot to get value here as the line has moved from 6.5/7 to 5. Regardless of who plays, I absolutely love the Eagles to dominate this game.
This team came out last week flat, made mistakes, and were a shell of themselves. They have the rare opportunity to travel back to Metlife Stadium a week later to redeem their performance. I expect to see an Eagles team like we saw against the Lions earlier this year. Relying heavily on the run game and completely dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The defensive front for Philly should give Zach Wilson too many issues causing him to hurry up throws, make mistakes, and ultimately get hit way too many times. The Eagles simply were embarrassed and underperformed last week. This is a huge bounce back game for them before heading into a bye and I think they coast comfortably. If Hurts does not go Minshew is more than capable as a back up in this league to take over and be in control of this game. LFG Philly! Eagles -5.
Bears +7.5 (-110)
I understand this feels gross and the Cardinals should absolutely dismantle the Bears. HOWEVER, more times than not in this league when bets feel “easy” they rarely yield the results we feel they should. Kyler Murray should be active this week, but Kingsbury referencing their dominate record said they could be “overly cautious with Kyler and Hop.” This could be a tough spot to have a QB come back after not playing for 4 weeks, that is used to training and playing in warm weather controlled environments.
Now tasked with playing in the Windy City in December to get his season going again. Weather is going to be a factor in this game. Cold, rainy, and windy weather could actually make this a game and keep it close. If Bears can lean on David Montgomery and get their run game going, extending drives, and limiting the Cardinals possessions will keep this from getting out of hand. I can’t imagine Kyler coming out in this type of weather/atmosphere and being in “MVP” form as we saw in the beginning of the season. Bears extend drives with their run game, Dalton manages the game like an NFL vet should, and defense contains Kyler Murray not giving up quick strikes to cover +7.5.
Key notes: Public betting % 74/26 on the Cardinals with a key number over 7 getting the hook at 7.5. Remember Vegas doesn’t lose. Fading the public here.
Even though the weathers a bit cold, the horses don’t stop running. On Saturday, we have two Grade I Stakes races. The main event is the G1 Cigar Mile Handicap at Aqueduct and the less of the two, being the G1 Starlet Stakes at Los Alamitos. The G1 Cigar Mile Handicap is for Colts, Three Years or Older while the G1 Starlet Stakes is for Two Year Old Fillies. There’s also several graded stakes taking place in Japan but, I usually stay away from those as I prefer the NYRA Circuit.
I’ll breakdown the G1 Cigar Mile Handicap and give my best bets for who will win this race.
Race History:
This event has been run each year at Aqueduct Racetrack since 1988. The Cigar Mile Handicap is named in honor of the legendary Hall of Famer Cigar. Then called the NYRA Mile, Cigar began his record setting 16 race win streak in 1994 with a win at the race by a record 7 lengths. Following his retirement, the race was renamed in his honor in 1997.
Race Information:
Track: Aqueduct Racetrack (Queens, NY, USA)
Event Grade: Grade I
Race: 10
Post Time: 4:13 PM ET
Length: 1 Mile
Purse: $750,000
Division: Open | Three Years Old & Upwards
Surface: Dirt
Wagers: Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10) Wagers
TV Schedule:
TVG
America’s Day At The Races Youtube – 1:00 – 5:30 PM ET
Field:
PP
HORSE
JOCKEY
TRAINER
A/S
WGT
ML
1
Following Sea (KY)
J. Velazquez
T. Pletcher
3/ C
119
5-1
2
Plainsman (KY)
M. Franco
B. Cox
6/ C
119
12-1
3
Americanrevolution (NY)
L. Saez
T. Pletcher
3/ C
117
5-2
4
Code of Honor (KY)
T. Gaffalione
C. McGaughey
5/ C
120
6-1
5
Independence Hall (KY)
J. Castellano
M. McCarthy
4/ C
121
7-2
6
Ginobili (KY)
D. Van Dyke
J. Bailey
4/ C
122
7-2
7
Olympiad (KY)
I. Ortiz Jr.
W. Mott
3/ C
114
10-1
8
Pipeline (KY)
J. Ortiz
C. Brown
3/ C
114
15-1
Horse Preview:
(1) Following Sea, will lengthen out to a Mile here after only going a Mile + once in his seven starts. This horse has been a career sprinter but Trainer Todd Pletcher is quoted as saying his training has given him an indication that he’ll [Following Sea] will run farther. In his lone race at a 1 1/8 Mile, he finished 3rd in the G1 Haskell but ran his worse speed figure (86). In his last race out, Following Sea took 3rd in the G1 Qatar Racing Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Prior to that he won the G2 Vosburgh Stakes which was at 7 Furlongs. This horse some class finishing in the money in every start but, it’ll be interesting to see if he can improve from his last outing at this distance.
(2) Plainsman, is the oldest horse in this race at 6 years old. He’ll run his first G1 Stakes after competing in several G3 Stakes. In his last out, he took 3rd in the Bold Ruler Handicap where he went off as the favorite in a 7F Sprint. Prior to that, he won the G3 Ack Ack Stakes which was run at a Mile. He’s had more success at longer distances but I’m not sure how he’ll do against this class of horses. This horse struggled in 2020 but has seemed to found some gas left in the tank so we’ll see if he can pull off the upset here.
(3) Americanrevolution, is the morning line favorite posted at 5-2. He switched from Sprints to a Mile + earlier this year and has had success winning three of four starts. He’s coming off a win in the Empire Classic Handicap where he won by 11 3/4 lengths. Prior to that he made his first Graded Stakes debut in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby and finished 3rd. Over the past three races this horse has looked good which is in line with his improved speed figures. He’s the lone New York bred horse so we’ll see if he can defend his turf from the Kentucky-bred’s and capture his first G1 win.
(4) Code of Honor, is the lone G1 winner in the field through wins in the 2019 G1 Runhappy Travers Stakes and the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. In his last start he was beaten by fellow entrant Independence Hall in the G2 Hagyard Fayette Stakes. His lone win this year comes back in August when he won the G3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes at a 1 1/6 Mile. Trainer Claude McGaughey is hoping for a little more pace in this race than in the Hagyard Fayette which will better suit Code of Honor’s running style. He’s set to retire in 2022 so this should be one of his last races.
(5) Independence Hall, won the G2 Hagyard Fayette his last time out beating Code of Honor. Prior to that race he took 2nd in the G3 Lukas Classic Stakes where he lost to Knicks Go, a worthy opponent and Horse of the Year candidate. He competed in two G1 Stakes in 2021 (TVG Pacific Classic Stakes & Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes) where he finished 5th and 3rd respectfully. This horse is carrying the second most weight but like Trainer Mike McCarthy said it’s hard to knock his last two races where he’d done well.
(6) Ginobili, the 4-year old gelding, this race is all about the cash since he cannot breed. He’s coming off a 2nd place finish in the G1 Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile losing to Life is Good. Prior to that he won the G2 Pat O’Brien Stakes at 7F where he drew away from the competition. He seems to be finding his stride during his 2021 campaign after going winless in 2020. We’ll see if he can continue his form here and a distance he’s had success in the past at.
(7) Olympiad, has only races twice this year with starts in September and October. His last outing in October was an $86k Allowance at 7F which he won. This will be his first race at a Mile as his previous races (four) have all been from 6-7F. He was some pedigree to his name but I’m not sure how he’ll fare in his first Graded Stakes at this distance. Jockey Joel Rosario who was originally slated to get the ride is out for a few weeks with a rib injury. The Irad Ortiz Jr has been named as the replacement.
(8) Pipeline, is another 3 year old who will try his hand in his first Graded Stakes. He’s also lengthening out to a Mile here from his previous starts. In his last out he ran in the Perryville Stakes at 7F and finished 3rd. I’m not really sure what they see in this horse to run him in this class of race or at this distance. He does have a solid Jockey-Trainer combination but even with that I still don’t see him competing in this race.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Following Sea, Ginobili
Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): Americanrevolution, Code of Honor, Olympiad, Pipeline, Independence Hall, Plainsman
Closer(s):
Picks:
To WIN: (6) GINOBILI
This gelding looked great in the Patty O’Brien Stakes and in the Big Ass Fans Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He lost to Life is Good his last time out and no horse in this race is as talented as that horse.
EXACTA: 6/ 1,5,7
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
