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*CFB(1u): Old Dominion +9(-110) vs Tulsa–1:30 PM CT
Both of these teams are 6-6 entering this afternoon’s bout in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Additionally, both teams used strong finishes to the season to secure their bowl eligibility. However, I think one team clearly did a more impressive job in the second half of the season and should feel good entering today’s game. Old Dominion started the year just 1-5, but after promoting Hayden Wolff to starting QB, the Monarchs won their final 5 games of the season. Even with measly QB play early in the season, ODU still played Buffalo, UTEP, and Marshall all to 1 score games. In addition to Wolff adding a spark at QB, the Monarchs also run the ball quite well; Blake Watson and Elijah Davis each exceeded the 5 YPC mark with at least 100 carries to their name. Tulsa has traditionally played good defense under Phil Montgomery, but the Golden Hurricanes took a step back on that side of the ball this year. It’s also worth noting that DC Joseph Gillespe left for the TCU DC job and will not be coaching in this game. It’s very easy to fade Tulsa’s offense because of their poor QB play. Davis Brin threw 16 INT’s this season, completed just 59% of his passes, and struggled to eclipse the 8 Y/A mark. Tulsa had some success with their young RB’s this season, but Phil Montgomery chose to dish most of the carries out to senior Sean Brooks, who amassed just 4.8 YPC this season. Given this is Brooks’ last game, I highly doubt Montgomery will take carries away from him. This formula leads to Tulsa converting just 37% of the time on 3rd down. What ultimately gets me to the window in this game is that Tulsa has failed to win by margin this season(excluding against Temple, who publicly quit towards the end of the season). They beat Arkansas State by just 7, South Florida by 1, and actually lost to UC Davis by 2 earlier in the season; I power rate all of those teams lower than this Old Dominion squad. Old Dominion is 9-3 ATS this season and, being a lower-level G5 school, is much more likely to max out in this game; Tulsa underperformed expectations this season and will have to address whether Phil Montgomery is the right guy for the HC job. Any spread over 1 possession presents a good opportunity to play on a hot ODU team and fade a Tulsa team that clearly isn’t built to win by margin.
Let’s start off the week strong, people! Hope your weekend was lucrative:
Atlanta vs San Francisco -9 O/U 47.5
Nobody knows Matt Ryan more than 49ers coach Kyle Shannahan. He coached him in their superbowl year. In saying that, I have to expect that Kyle knows his weaknesses as well. Believe it or not, Atlanta quietly ranks 3rd in opponent rush EPA but only 27th against the pass. Jimmy G has been lights out lately throwing the ball to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. He is top 5 in pass success rate as well as EPA per play. The only way to stop Jimmy G is to get to him. Atlanta is dead last in Sack rate. The Falcons also have some injured linebackers with Ellerbee and Fowler exiting last game. DVOA hates the Falcons having them dead last and don’t have them a lot higher. The 49ers are 8th in DVOA and trending up. Take the 49ers.
San Francisco -9 – 2 stars
6 pt Teaser: Cincinnati to +9 with Green Bay to -1 – 2 stars
Am I nervous? Yes. Am I excited? Yes. Am I going to be pacing through every game today? Absolutely. Let’s go, fellow Odds Breakers! Steve and I are 46-23-1 and in 27th place in Circa – here’s our OFFICIAL Week 15 picks!
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NFL Circa Picks: 46-23-1 (66%)
NBA: 103-80 (56%), +30.69 units
NFL Week 15 Circa Picks:
Another solid day in NBA betting; not so much in college sports, but a good win by Derrick Lewis who gets yet another TKO. Onto Sunday!
What an absolute crazy start for week 15 in the NFL. From all of the roster changes, games being rescheduled, and an EPIC TNF game… we are in-store for a wild ride!. Oh and not to mention we now have four straight days of NFL action…LFG! Now with this crazy week comes my “crazy” pick. It goes against the grain and is certainly not going to be popular.
NFL record through Week 14: 115-85 +30.98 Units
Den -3 (-110)
Fading the public in this match up. From the various podcast, radio shows, and talking to people, a ton and I mean a TON of people are loving the Bengals in this spot @ +3. The current Bet % via Action Network as I write this article is 62% Cin 38% Den. Seems like more action is coming in on DEN since I locked this bet in when it was 71/29 on Cin. As that percentage gets closer together, look for this line to grow. My guess by tomorrow we could see it at 3.5-4.
Games are won in the trenches. For me the Bengals offensive line is just going to be too banged up against a very capable Broncos defense. With both Riley Reiff and Isaiah Prince out, the right tackle position is exposed to 3rd stringer Fred Johnson. Burrow is going to be under pressure and already going to have trouble as it is with the Broncos elite secondary. Historically speaking the Bengals have not faired well traveling to Mile High. in their last 11 games on the road they are 1-10. Working in our favor we also love the trend of Teddy Bridgewater boasting a 75% ATS covering record at 33-11.
The combination of the inconsistency of the Bengals play: Wondering which team is going to show up week-to-week. The public being so confident to quickly speak on taking the Bengals, no questions asked. Bengals injuries, particularly exposing their offensive line and the key trends of away record vs Bridgewater’s ATS competency. It’s gross it feels bad the Bengals should be the pick… nope too easy to like them in this spot. Broncos -3.
NBA Picks:
