Oregon vs Utah -3 O/U 58
This is going to be a nice title game vs the two best teams in the Pac 12. I am very interested in seeing what happens here because Utah blew out Oregon at home, yet most people, including myself, have Oregon the higher power-rated team. Now the question is, since Utah’s poor start in losing 3 games (two of them to smaller conference teams) how much has this team improved? Utah has been smashing teams since the Oregon State loss and they have gotten better on both sides of the field. Another thing to consider here is that Oregon has the better talent, and they also have more guys that will be playing on Sunday which makes you wonder if Talent prevails especially now that playoff pressure is off of them. Utah has a slight .2 yard per play advantage here but I think that they also have had the more favorable schedule getting UCLA and the Ducks at home. I don’t know who will win the side in this game but I think that the under has some value. Utah’s pace of play ranks 80th in the nation at 26.9 seconds per play while Oregon ranks 74th at 26.5. If you take away their last matchup, Oregon has held their last four opponents to 29 points or less. Utah’s opponents all year has only averaged 21.5 points per game, and they held Oregon to 7 lowly points a few weeks back. I think that being that this game is on a neutral field in the black hole at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas, and the fact that these two teams have seen what each other has on offense, the under is the best play.
Under 58 – 2 stars
Appalachian State vs Louisiana +3 O/U 53
This is going to be a great game between two teams that do not like each other. Unless you have been living under a rock, you know that Ragin Cajun’s coach Billy Napier has taken the Florida job. Now some people would look to downgrade a team in this position but not me. I think that the team will rally around coach Napier because he is sticking with the kids to coach this game, and the team really seems to like him and understand the business part of the sport. Now even though App State has had the harder schedule, and has the slightly better stats, I think that Louisiana kinda coasted through the year and essentially had gotten bored with the easy teams that they have played. The Cajun’s had it pretty easy being that their side of the Sun Belt didn’t have Coastal Carolina, but they did get to play Appalachian State at home. That game wasn’t close at all it makes me wonder why the Cajuns are the dog here once again at home. Looking at EPA margin it looks pretty close with App State ranking 16th and Louisiana ranking 19th. The Mountaineers have the better yards per play margin at 1.4 net to App State at only .8 but that goes back to what I said about being bored. Louisiana has the better offensive success rate ranking 28th to App State’s 36th but the Mountaineers win on defensive success rate ranking 12th to the Ragin Cajun’s 26th. Since these two teams played each other, App state has went on a tear by first beating Coastal Carolina by 3 points, and after that, beating a bunch of tomato cans in their division by 24 points or more. App State has the passing advantage and but Louisiana has the rushing advantage at 4.9 yards per rush and home field can factor in here. I think that three points is too much in this game for a road favorite for two almost equal teams especially in a championship game. Take the Ragin Napiers for 1 last hurrah!
Louisiana +3 – 2 stars
Bonus play: Take Baylor +5.5 for 2 stars and sprinkle the ML. I can’t see QB Gerry Bohanon not playing in this huge game. Last Week Oklahoma State was out-gained against Oklahoma as was fortunate to win that game among many others.
