161/162 Wake Forest (-5) at Boston College Total 64
Seeing money coming in on BC, taking this line from it’s -5.5 open to as low as -4.5 in some books. That is likely due to the cold, slightly wet, and very windy day ahead for these pass heavy squads. Although BC has been pass heavy since the return of their stud QB, they have a shown in the past they can be successful on the ground.
Looking at the SDQL database for teams in the situation Wake Forest is in… Since 2014, when Dave Clawson became coach for the Demon Deacons, when we have a team who is an away favorite off a loss of 21 or more, where they threw for over 300 yards but had their previous opponent rush for over 300, these teams are 4-0 SU and ATS. Granted the opponents in these games (UCONN, NMEX, etc) were truly bad teams which BC is not.
So then we look at the total. When BC has had a home game during QB Jurkovec’s tenure with a total of 64 or higher, the lone game went under. And it was versus this same WF squad in 2019, with a 24-27 loss at home. The market agrees the under is the play moving this total from it’s 65 open down to 64. We’ve seen in high wind games 15mph+ (>24mph gusts expected), that offenses have a harder time getting the ball in the end zone and FG’s are pretty much an afterthought. These are two teams that have both struggled to run the ball as well lately, give me the Under 64!
Saturday Headliners include the College Football Last home game Play of the Year, 5-1 last 6 years, an Executive Level TIER 1 and 2 more best Bets. We also have a Top NBA Play and Our Early Season NCAAB System plays on an 11-4 run. ACC Comp play below
The ACC Comp play for Saturday is on Virginia at 3:45 eastern. The Cavs have revenge here and they have covered 5 of 7 in that role. The host team in this series is on a 7-1 spread run. Virginia has Nice numbers here covering in 5 of 5 vs team under .500 on the road and the last 7 after putting up over 475 yards. They are 7-1 ats when favored and have covered 20 of 27 here at home. Virginia Tech has failed to cover 9 of 11 on the road, 6 of 7 in November games, 6 of 8 vs winning teams an they are 0-5 ats after allowing 280 or more yards. The Hokies will have trouble containing the nations #2 pass offense. Play on Virginia. On Saturday a huge card is up led by the Last home game system play of the year a winner in 5 of the last 6 years.. There is also an Executive Level TIER 1 and 2 more top College Football plays. In hoops we have another big NBA Top play and our early season College hoop plays which are on a current 11-4 run. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on twitter/facebook to Jump on now and cash out all day and night. For the ACC Comp play. Lay the 7 with Virginia. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
Western Kentucky is 1st in the nation in offensive success. They are throwing it 67% of the time. Marshall’s pass D looks good on paper. 11th in opponent QBR and 34th in pass play success rate allowed. Who have they played that can throw it around? No one. App State likely the best passing attack they have faced. Brice has been good for them, but Chase Brice is no Bailey Zappe that’s for sure.
Western Kentucky’s defense has become a ball hawking unit. Forced 19 fumbles this year (have recovered only 7 of them). Have 18 interceptions. Second most in the country- first? Iowa of course! The Hilltoppers have forced 22 turnovers in their last 7 games. Fantastic stuff.
What about Marshall quarterback Grant Wells? He can be a turnover machine at times. 12 INT’s on the season. Marshall has fumbled the ball 17 times this year (have lost only 8).
In CUSA play only. W Kentucky has a +1.68 ypp margin. Marshall is +1.27 ypp margin. I think Western Kentucky’s defense has improved a lot and their offense is clearly fantastic.
Happy Black Friday all! We are back with a free premium play for you for today! We are off to a 16-9 start in CBB to begin the season and 31-17 in our last 42 CFB plays! Whether you tail or not, good luck to everyone with their plays tonight!!
The Northern Kentucky Norse visit Wintrust Arena in Chicago, Illinois on Friday to play the DePaul Blue Demons. Northern Kentucky is 2-2 following a 69-67 loss to Western Illinois on Monday while the Blue Demons enter with an undefeated 4-0 record after beating Western Illinois by 4 points last Saturday. Northern Kentucky enters averaging 70 points per game on 41.3% shooting against defenses giving up 40.7% from the field. On defense they have been holding teams to 70.7 points per game on 45% from the field but that’s against offenses averaging 42.4% from the floor. DePaul comes in averaging 88.2 points per game on 47.7% shooting against defenses surrendering 43.6% from the field and 72.8 points per game. Defensively, they are giving up 72 points per game on 41.8% shooting against below average offenses scoring 67 points per game and shooting 38.9 from the floor. There is also a clear advantage for the Blue Demons on second chance points as they rank 41st in the nation in second chance percentage vs the average opponent and will be going up against the 286th ranked defense in giving up second chance points. The Norse rank 115th in average possession length while the Blue Demons play even faster ranking 52nd in possession length and transition three pointers could be an issue for both defenses who rank 279th and 303rd in defending shots beyond the arc. Additionally, the Over is 5-0 in Norse last 5 games as a road underdog, 7-1 in Norse last 8 games as an underdog, 5-0 in Blue Demons last 5 overall and is 5-0 in Blue Demons last 5 home games. Take Over 139.5
The Match 5 takes place on the Friday after Thanksgiving between Bryson Dechambeau and Brooks Koepka. This “rivalry” started back in 2018 after Brooks made a comment about Bryson’s slow play on the course. Dechambeau then made a comment about Brooks’ ESPN body issue and the pair proceeded to trade shots back and forth on social media. However, they seemed to have squashed the beef during the Ryder Cup, even asking Captain Steve Stricker to play together. It now seems like more of a playful rivalry but still sound be entertaining as the two face off against each other.
The Wynn Golf Club opened in 2005 after Steve Wynn brought the property back in 2000. The course was renovated by Tom Fazio in 2019. The resort and course are on the site of the former Desert Inn and its accompanying golf course. That course was the original home of the Tournament of Champions.
“This is the fifth version of The Match. The first was also in Las Vegas and played at Shadow Creek, north of downtown, in 2018. Phil Mickelson defeated Tiger Woods to win $9 million.
The next was in May 2020 when Peyton Manning and Tiger Woods teamed up to beat Mickelson and Tom Brady by a shot at Medalist in Hobe Sound, Fla.
Charles Barkley and Mickelson defeated Peyton Manning and Stephen Curry in the fourth Match at Stone Canyon Golf Club in Oro Valley, Ariz., in November 2020.
The most recent was in July when Aaron Rodgers and DeChambeau defeated Brady and Mickelson at The Reserve Golf Course at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Mont.” – source
3rd Hole of Competition: DraftKings Closest to the Hole
• A $50,000 charitable donation will be made in the player’s name for whoever lands their tee shot closest to the hole. If within five feet of the hole, an additional $150,000 will be donated, and a $2 million donation will be made for a hole-in-one.
6th Hole of Competition: Wheels Up/Meals Up and Feeding America Closest to the Hole
• Whichever player lands their tee shot closest to the hole will help donate 500,000 meals to Feeding America. If within five feet of the hole, an additional 1.5 million meals will be donated, and a 20 million meal donation will be made for a hole-in-one.
• In addition, ZenWTR will donate 100,000 bottles of water to Feeding America.
7th Hole of Competition: Capital One Venture X Long Drive Challenge
• A $200,000 donation will be made in the player’s name for whoever hits the longest drive from the tee that lands on the fairway.
9th Hole of Competition: ZipRecruiter Closest to the Hole
• A $50,000 donation will be made in the player’s name for whoever lands their tee shot closest to the hole. If within five feet of the hole, an additional $150,000 will be donated, and a $2 million donation will be made for a hole-in-one.
11th Hole of Competition: Wagoneer Closest to the Hole
• A $50,000 donation will be made in the player’s name for whoever lands their tee shot closest to the hole. If within five feet of the hole, an additional $150,000 will be donated, and a $2 million donation will be made for a hole-in-one.
Course Guide/ Scorecards:
Here’s the full lineup of holes in the order they’ll be used on Friday: 16, 3, 12, 13, 11, 5, 14, 9, 7, 8, 18, 17.
Should the match reach the 12th hole, the downhill 377-yard par-4 17th will provide a great risk-reward finisher.
Hole
Par
Length
16
4
421
3
4
447
12
5
529
13
4
452
11
3
201
5
4
386
14
4
440
9
3
238
7
5
535
8
4
469
18
4
448
17
4
498
Odds (Outright) – BetMGM:
Bryson Dechambeau (-110), odds shifting slightly towards Bryson
Brooks Koepka (-110)
Picks (Outright):
Bryson Dechambeau (-110)
Pre-Ryder Cup I would have chosen Brooks here but it looks like the rivalry has turned into a friendship. Bryson hasn’t been playing lately doing a lot media events and competing in the World Long Drive competition. Brooks on the other hand comes into the Match after missing two cuts. I’ll take Bryson here given the fact that I think Brooks has lost the mental edge.
Black Friday Triple College Football Power Pack with a Platinum Supreme Headliner. In Hoops we have an NBA are 6* 100% System that is Perfect dating to 1995. We also have NCAAB and 5* NHL Play. Comp play below.
The Black Friday Comp play is on Memphis in the Pre Season NIT Tournament final at 9:00 eastern.. Memphis the Defending N.I.T Tournament champs are 5-0 for the first time since 2010. They took down a solid VA. Tech team on Wednesday with a late run to get the win. Memphis averages 82 per game, and has played the tougher schedule. They have a big edge on the boards ranked 22nd in rebounding compared to 207th for Iowa St. The Cyclones are off an upset win as a 9 point dog over Xavier but are still just ranked 141st in scoring and 88th on defense. Hardaway has the more talented team and they have even shot well from the free throw line. Look for Memphis to win the championship game. On Black Friday we have 3 big College Football plays up 2 are TV Games one is a Platinum Supreme move. In Hoops the lead play is a rare 6* NBA Blowout backed with an Undefeated database System dating to 1995. There is College hoops early Season Top plays and a 5* NHL Play. See us at goldencontender@aol.com or on facebook/twitter to Jump on and cash out all day and night. Make it Memphis for the comp play. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
This game is really about the situation here. Utah just had their biggest win of the year against Oregon and now they have to prepare to beat them or revenge their Beavers loss in the Pac 12 title game. Utah has no shot whatsoever to get to the college football playoffs, but what they do have here is a game that really means nothing to them while it means everything to Colorado to finish out a disappointing season. Now my power ratings have this a 20 point spread and I might even be a little low here but at the same time, why should Utah risk their starters here when they have much bigger fish to fry vs one of the Oregons. Now I know that the Buffalos have bad numbers this year, but I do like the fact that Colorado just showed motivation with 7 losses last week beating Washington and I think that they will show up this game for a good finish to the year. This is a situation where Utah would not be smart to keep their starters in if up 3 or more scores.
Colorado +24 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle
Troy vs Georgia State -6.5 O/U 50
I like betting spots this time of year, and there is no better spot than betting on a team with 5 wins on their last game trying to make a bowl game. Troy is a team based on having a very stout defensive line and it really has worked well for them. The Trojans rank number 26 in line yards and number 1 in sack rate. Troy only allows 3.3 rushing yards per attempt that that is where Georgia State needs to thrive. The Trojan’s weakness is just having a bad offense that can’t move the ball, but they at last scored 21 or more points 5 out of their last 6 games. Troy is +.2 in net yards per play, Georgia State is -.2. Georgia State ranks 78th in EPA margin, Troy ranks 81st. I can see Troy winning this important game outright.
Troy +6.5 – 2.5 stars and sprinkle
Ohio State vs Michigan +8 O/U 64
This is the best game of the weekend hands down and I must say that it is very nice to see that Michigan is a top 6 team now along with Ohio State’s greatness of being top two. Unless you have been living under a rock, you know that Ohio State has owned this matchup and hasn’t lost to Michigan since 2011. Ohio State has amazing metrics and their defense is actually improving. The Buckeye’s rank number 2 in EPA margin only behind Georgia while Michigan ranks number 10. IF Ohio State has a weakness, it is against the pass where they rank 58th and Michigan ranks 21st in Pass EPA. Ohio State’s offense has been so strong this year that they average 7.98 yards per play. Being that they give up 4.99 on defense, they average a massive 2.99 positive net yards per play. Michigan is at about +1.62 but that’s still far under the Buckeye’s. One thing that I think that we will see is a lot of points being scored because no defense has been able to contain these two teams. My number on the side is 8.25 so no play there but the total is screaming at me. Michigan averages a huge 37 points per game and they even put up 38 vs Wisconsin while Ohio State averages 47 points per game. I like the over here in this matchup. These teams have scored at least 65 points or more five out of their last seven matchups and the offenses here look too good not to repeat. I also like the fact that Michigan is at home and I think it will be more comfortable for them to put up some points.
Been a good week so far. Sitting at 14-5 on the week up 14.6 units and now back on the good side of the ledger in College Basketball after a rough start.
Today I’m looking at the battle in Lincoln between 9-2 Iowa (-1) and 3-8 Nebraska (O/U 40)
Nebraska played a great game in Madison last week, but as they’ve done all season long they found a way to lose in the end. The Huskers are 0-6 in one score games this season. They’ve been also unable to get wins against key opponents in the Big ten. Wisconsin has beat them 8 straight times, Ohio State 7 straight times and this Iowa squad has won 6 straight vs the Huskers. Iowa still has a shot at capturing the Big Ten West title with a win here and a Wisconsin loss at Minnesota tomorrow.
Iowa has been led lately by Alex Padilla at QB to very pedestrian results throwing for only 83 Yards vs Illinois and 206 vs Minnesota. They did average 30 points in those last two games, but were at 10.33 the 3 games prior to that. Their strength has been in the rushing game with Tyler Goodson who is averaging 85.9 yards per game. Iowa has been held to fewer yards in their last 3 outings than their opponents, but have managed to win each game. Nebraska is at 57th nationally in both rushing and passing defense, but has done better in scoring defense thanks to solid red zone efficiency.
The lines on this game have moved drastically due to the news early in the week that Adrian Martinez will be unavailable. The Huskers were averaging the second most yards in the Big Ten, but we will have to see if Freshman Logan Smothers or possibly a QB rotation can step up and keep the offense churning. Iowa’s defense is solid at 314.8 YPG, and they continue to turnover opponents to help setup scoring chances. Their weakness has been against the pass, in the Purdue game they gave up 378 yards in the air, and 248 to a hapless Illinois offense last week.
This game opened with a total up around 45, and has fallen with the news of Adrian Martinez being out. I think Iowa should be up for this game and I think Scott Frost will want to end this awful season on a high note. Scott’s Frost offense for all the losses in Lincoln, is a solid system and has translated from his time at Oregon running Mark Helfrich’s Chip Kelly imitation into his own unique system. If something is going to translate to inexperienced QBs easily this is it. If Iowa gets up early I can see this one speeding up especially in the second half and I’ll take the discount with Martinez out. Also don’t be surprised if the Cornhuskers pull the upset here.
