Turkey Day card has 3 Big NFL Plays, an early 3< an Afternoon Platinum Supreme, and the Thursday night NFL Total of the year. In College Football we have the Egg Bowl Play going in evening action. NCAAB Comp Play below.
The NCAAB Comp Play is on Iona at 5:00 eastern. The Gaels are taking 12 points here in a neutral court game against an Alabama team that can score but plays very little defense ranked 206th in the nation.. The Tide have failed to cover 4 of 5 as a favorite when not on their home court. Iona has covered 8 of 9 off a win, 12 of 15 in Neutral court games and 4 of 5 vs .600 or better opposition. They are off to a 5-0 start and are 13th in the nation in defending the three. Look for The Gaels to hang around here and get the cover. Rob V- Golden Contender Sports.
*CFB(1u): Washington St/Washington UNDER 44.5(-110)–Friday 7 PM CT
Washington had playoff aspirations in the preseason but have been let down by their offense week-after-week. If Jimmy Lake would’ve made a switch at QB earlier in the season, he’d likely still have a job, but the decision to keep Dylan Morris at QB has been a costly one. Morris is not confirmed as this week’s starter, but it wouldn’t make much sense to throw true freshman Sam Huard in to start his first game in the last week of the season. Either way, the passing game certainly doesn’t benefit from what is a stagnant running attack. The Huskies O-Line is arguably the most disappointing unit in the country(according to where I rated them preseason). Washington State might not be a program known for defense, but they’ve certainly stepped up to the plate this season. Excluding their game against Oregon, the Cougars have allowed less than 21 PPG since September 25th; their ability to stop the run will force Washington into obvious passing downs and, thus, stalled drives. As disappointing as Washington’s offense has been, their defense has lived up to expectations(21 PPG). Washington State’s offense is pretty mediocre across the board and run just 67.3 plays/game(99th in CFB), so I’d expect the Huskies defense to find a way to get some stops. I’m expecting an ugly game where the first team to 20 wins.
*CFB ML Parlay(1u): Ohio State, Navy, Clemson(+103)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Ohio State is in too good of current form offensively for me to look against them here, even in arguably the toughest environment in the sport. C.J Stroud had his Heisman moment last week in a 56 point output against Michigan State and is now averaging exactly 10 yards/attempt. He has the best WR group in CFB to go along with a home-run threat at RB in TreVeyon Henderson(7.3 YPC). Michigan will bring a lethal pass rush all day, but the Ohio State OL is no slouch themselves having allowed just 9 sacks all season. Michigan is good at all 3 levels defensively, but there’s no way I’m expecting them to contain this Buckeye offense over a 60 minute game. Ohio State has turned a corner defensively since being run all over by Oregon and should be able to sell out to stop the run. I’m not that high on OSU’s secondary, but I don’t think Michigan has the playmakers on the outside to expose that weakness. Buckeyes find a way to win in Ann Arbor.
Navy might be 2-8, but they’ve been competitive in every AAC game they’ve played this season. Temple is 3-8 on the season and have totally thrown in the towel on the season; on their current 6 game losing streak, they’re losing by an average of 29 PPG. Navy should be able to notch a win here before gearing up for the Army game in 2 weeks.
South Carolina found a way to beat Auburn at home last week and also smoked Florida earlier in the month. Sitting at 6-5, Shane Beamer has done a terrific job with this Gamecocks team here in Year 1. However, I don’t think they’re anywhere near ready to compete with Clemson, even in a down year for the Tigers. Clemson’s defense has been their mainstay all season, allowing just 16 PPG. South Carolina has created points via their defense, but their offense alone is a very weak unit. Clemson ran the ball all over Wake Forest last week, and DJ Uiagalelei even found a rhythm in the vertical passing game. Kudos to Beamer for a great first year, but his team has no shot in this one.
*CFB(1u): Maryland -1.5(-110) @ Rutgers–Sat. 11 AM CT
It’s hard to find much good to say about either of these teams, but Rutgers’ inability to throw the football is what stands out in this matchup. QB Noah Vedral averages just 6.1 yards/attempt and completes less than 60% of his passes; to make matters worse, RB Isaih Pachecho is averaging just 3.7 YPC this season. This incompetence has led to Rutgers averaging just 13.3 PPG in conference play this season. Maryland’s offense was clearly overrated after a fast start to the season, but at least QB Taulia Tagovailoa has shown some playmaking ability(68% completion, 7.8 Y/A, 22 TD’s). The Terps also surprisingly ran for 181 yards against Michigan last week. I’m seeing a Maryland offense that, while not great, is leaps and bounds better than what Rutgers is putting out there. For that reason, I like Maryland here.
*CFB(1u): Texas Tech/Baylor UNDER 52(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Baylor recorded another impressive win at Kansas State last week and now find themselves in a position to play for the Big12 Championship(if OKST beats OU). However, the Bears lost QB Gerry Bohannon to a rather gruesome leg injury last week; all signs currently point towards freshman Blake Shapen making his first career start. Shapen might have higher upside than Bohannon, but I seriously doubt Dave Aranda is going to put too much on his young QB’s plate in this one. The Bears have been a run-first, slow-paced team all season, and if anything, I’d expect that to remain even more true this week. Texas Tech does feature a pair of stud LB’s that can stop the run, but I still expect the Bears to take a conservative approach in this spot. Baylor’s run defense has been absolutely phenomenal this season; they’ve held BYU, Texas, and Oklahoma all to under 102 rushing yards already this season. Texas Tech hasn’t done much to instill hope that they can crack the code on this Bears defense, meaning the game will fall on the arm of freshman QB Donovan Smith. In a similar matchup last week against Oklahoma State, the Red Raiders were shut out 23-0, and Smith had just 83 yards through the air on 29 attempts. While he might improve marginally, I’m expecting this game to play out similarly. I like the Under here.
*CFB Teaser(1u): Florida State +8.5 @ Florida AND Florida State/Florida UNDER 65(-110)–Sat. 11 AM CT
Florida and Florida State might each be 5-6 at the moment, but these programs couldn’t be in more different places. Florida has dropped 4 of their last 5 games, with their lone win coming against FCS Samford(they allowed 52 points in the win). This has led to the firing of HC Dan Mullen and the talk around this program being on everything but this football game. Meanwhile, Florida State enters this game off of 2 straight impressive wins over Miami and Boston College. While the Seminoles got off to a rough start this season, they’ve consistently shown fight and have played the likes of Notre Dame and Clemson down to the wire. With Jordan Travis at QB, FSU is very dynamic in the run game but can also sneakily beat you deep in the passing game. Florida has shown a lack of effort defensively at times over the past few games, but even so, Florida State isn’t built to light up the scoreboard. The Florida offense has shown both an inability and unwillingness to establish the run game, leaving QB Emory Jones alone in trying to get that offense rolling. The Gators are 10-1 this season in the total yards department, yet often see drives squander in the opposition’s territory. Florida State is physical up front and should be able to manage this one-dimensional offense. I like teasing both Florida State to +8.5 as well as the Under up to 65.
*CFB(1u): LSU TT UNDER 20(-120) vs Texas A&M–Sat. 6 PM CT
Texas A&M has an exceptional defense, yet you might not be so sure given this TT posted for LSU. The Tigers have averaged less than 18 PPG over their past 4 games, yet the oddsmakers are expecting them to score 20+ against the best defense they’ve played in that stretch. While the LSU running game has somewhat picked up over the course of the season, the Tigers still don’t have a guy who’s averaging 5 YPC on the ground. In addition, with Garrett Nussmeier out, the Tigers are stuck with an immobile Max Johnson at QB. I expect the Aggies to win up front throughout the course of this game and make life very hard on Johnson and this LSU offense.
I could see this game playing out one of many ways, but there is a better chance that Oklahoma wins this game than this price would indicate. QB Caleb Williams has been held at bay in the passing game each of the past 2 weeks, but prior to that, Williams delivered 4 straight monster performances through the air. This Oklahoma State defense specializes in their front 7 and should be able to keep the Sooners from getting an established run game, but Caleb Williams still has the ability to completely take over a game with his sheer ability(watch the 2nd half of the Texas game). Oklahoma State’s offense doesn’t scare me because of Spencer Sanders’ inconsistencies in the passing game; the Sooners are physical in the front 7 and should match up well with Ok State’s run-heavy attack. At this price, a sprinkle on Oklahoma is worth a shot.
A nice little break from the NBA is overdue– here’s my full NFL Week 12 premium list and some lookahead CFB plays. As always, please don’t refrain if you’d like an explanation of any of my picks, ever. That’s always part of the service. Enjoy the day, fam!
Full NFL Week 12 List:
Lions +3 *
Cowboys -7 or 7.5 ***
Bills -6 **
Turkey Teaser (7 pts): Lions +10, Cowboys win, Bills +1 (2 units to win 3)
Bucs -3 **
Eagles -3 or -3.5 ***
Patriots -6.5 **
Steelers +4.5 ***
Dolphins +2 **
Broncos +3 **
Seahawks +2 *
Parlay of the Week: Cowboys/Eagles/Patriots- 2 units to win 3.36
*CFB(1u): Ole Miss/Mississippi State OVER 64(-110)–Thursday 6:30 PM CT
This total was sitting at 62 just yesterday before being bumped up to 64; with more expected steam, I’d grab this one ASAP(you should be good with anything under 66). Both of these teams have played some lower-scoring games than you might expect, but with each of these offenses ranking in the Top 10 in plays/game, the opportunities should be ample for these pair of offensive geniuses to empty out the playbook in this rivalry game. Ole Miss deploys a run-heavy offense and can rely on 3 separate RB’s, but QB Matt Corral is the X-factor. After struggling with turnovers a year ago, Corral has tossed just 3 INT’s this season to go along with a 9.0 Y/A and 67.5% completion. The Mississippi State defense has fared okay overall this season, but against SEC West opponents, they are allowing 33 PPG. Lane Kiffin is undoubtedly going to dial up his most creative gameplan of the season in this one. However, you simply can’t ignore how well MSU QB Will Rogers is playing at the moment. Air Raid QB’s are always going to have inflated numbers, but Rogers’ 76% completion rate is absolutely phenomenal and makes up for the lack of a running game. Rogers’ success has led to the Bulldogs averaging 37 PPG in their last 4 SEC games. Ole Miss has improved defensively this season(which isn’t saying much), but I have zero trust in this Rebels defense to stay disciplined enough to hold the Air Raid offense at bay. I can’t stress enough how important pace is in this game; there should be plenty of possessions to go around. Give me the Thanksgiving Night Over!
I believe this is the first time a 3-8 team has been favored over a 9-2 team in the history of CFB. Whatever the case may be, I couldn’t disagree with the oddsmakers more on this line. Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez catches a lot of flack and is an easy punching bag, but the senior QB is a HUGE reason why the Cornhuskers have even had a chance in most of their games this season. The Nebraska O-Line is absolutely terrible; Martinez was sacked 27 times this season despite being a very mobile QB. Martinez suffered a season-ending injury last week, leaving freshman Logan Smothers to start his first career game. Smothers came into Lincoln as a “dual threat”, but I’m willing to bet he’s going to be a major downgrade in the pocket awareness department in this one. Pressure leads to turnovers, and there’s not a defense in the country that has intercepted QB’s more than Iowa this season(21). Oddsmakers often look at turnovers as flukes, but at some point, they must acknowledge that the Hawkeyes have a real skill for turning opposing QB’s over. The Nebraska defense has turned in some good performances this season, and they won’t have an overly hard matchup facing this stagnant Iowa offense. Still, Hawkeyes RB Tyler Goodson has stepped up his production over the last 3 games, and newly-inserted QB Alex Padilla provides a downfield spark in the passing game. Lastly, Nebraska simply doesn’t know how to win football games. They are clearly better than a typical 3-8 team, but game after game, they find ways to lose at the end. People seem to count this as fluke, but winning is a learned skill that the Cornhuskers simply don’t possess(and won’t suddenly learn in Game 12). The Hawkeyes defense is the best unit on the field, and they will find a way to win Iowa this game.
*CFB(1u): Cincinnati TT OVER 36(-120) @ East Carolina–Fri. 2:30 PM CT
East Carolina’s offense is veteran-laden and has been on my radar all season; rather than try to guess how the Pirates will fare against an elite Cincinnati defense, I want to focus solely on the other matchup in this game. The Bearcat offense hit a wall in late October/early November, but QB Desmond Ridder has turned a corner. Last week, he threw for 274 yards against SMU on just 23 attempts(11.9 Y/A) in a 48 point effort; on the season, he holds a solid 66.5% completion and 8.7 Y/A. East Carolina can stop the run decently, but Cincinnati doesn’t expect RB Jerome Ford to pop off explosive runs anyway. The Cincy O-Line holds a massive physical advantage over the ECU front 4; winning up front will allow Ridder to strike vertically to his pair of really good outside WR’s. With too many close calls under their belt this season, Cincinnati understands they need style points to gain favor in the eyes of the committee. Considering their current form and matchup advantage, I expect to see Cincinnati eclipse the 40-point mark for the 3rd game in a row.
Saturday
*CFB(2u): Oregon -7(-110) vs Oregon State–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Oregon layed a complete egg in Salt Lake City last week and now find themselves out of the playoff race. However, with a win over their rival in this one, the Ducks will punch their ticket to the Pac12 title game and have a chance to avenge that loss. I don’t make 2u plays often, so it should tell you something that I’m willing to trust the Ducks so heavily in this spot. Even with the absence of RB CJ Verdell, Oregon has remained committed to pounding the rock and keeping their offense balanced. It has yielded them mixed results so far, but I have little doubt it will help them greatly in this matchup. Oregon State has arguably the worst run defense in the Pac12 and has allowed even the least likely of candidates to torch them on the ground(see Cal and Colorado). By establishing the run, Oregon will open up opportunities for QB Anthony Brown to hit his superior WR’s vertically. This formula should allow the Ducks to enjoy a season-best day offensively. Oregon State can run the football a little bit themselves(BJ Baylor: 6.1 YPC), but I have zero trust in QB Chance Nolan to beat Oregon through the air. While Baylor has run wild at times this season, this Oregon defense is the best he will have faced all season and specializes up front. The Beavers best not fall behind, or this one could get real ugly. Either way, this line is short; I’m backing the Ducks for 2u on Saturday.
*CFB(1.5u): Boston College +5.5(-110) vs Wake Forest–Sat. 11 AM CT
Wake Forest started the year 8-0 and was even garnering playoff hype(silly, I know), but the Demon Deacon defense has been totally exposed over the last 3 weeks. They allowed 58 to North Carolina and 48 to Clemson last week; even in a win over NC State 2 weeks ago, they yielded 42 points. Opposing offenses are able to run at will on this Wake defense, which should set up perfectly for this Boston College offense. QB Phil Jurkovec is playing at less than 100%, so BC has elected to deploy a run-heavy attack to open up the vertical passing game. The Golden Eagles were largely held at bay by a feisty Florida State defense last week, but given how I just profiled Wake Forest, their tendencies should fare much better this week. It’s hard to find many flaws in the Wake Forest offense, but one thing that sticks out is their unbalanced nature. They aren’t overly explosive in the running game, so they are quick to jump ship and put the game on the arm of QB Sam Hartman. For as many yards as Hartman has thrown for this season, he does have 9 INT’s and is only completing 60% of his passes. The BC defense has continuously improved throughout the season, and I expect them to stimmy a fairly one-dimensional Wake Forest attack. Give me the 5.5 points with BC on Senior Day.
*CFB(1u): Penn State/Michigan State OVER 51.5(-110)–Sat. 2:30 PM CT
Michigan State was absolutely eviscerated by CJ Stroud and the Buckeyes offense last week; 49 of Ohio State’s 56 points came in the first half. While getting beat by Ohio State isn’t all that surprising, Michigan State has continually struggled to defend the pass this season. Penn State features an experienced QB in Sean Clifford and a dynamic WR in Jahan Dotson that can totally take control of this game. It also helps that WR Parker Washington has shown continual development throughout the season. The Nittany Lions’ run game is wretched to say the least, but they won’t even need a running game considering all they should be able to do through the air in this one. Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker III was a non-factor in last week’s game, but I’d expect a bounce-back effort in this one from a guy who’s still averaging 136 yards/game and 6.4 YPC on the ground. QB Payton Thorne has shown the ability to hit his teo top WR’s(Reed and Nailor in the deep passing game, and a good day from Walker only opens that aspect of the game up even more. This total seems considerably too low; I see value in playing this Over.
This game is going to be terrible to watch and I can’t in good conscious recommend that you don’t rake the leaves or put up some Christmas decorations while it is on, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value in the number. The Lions have been one of the worst teams in the NFL but I do not think that any sharp person has them as one of the worst two teams in the league. The Lions have been one of the best bad teams in the league when they have stepped up in class to teams like the Ravens and the Rams. The Bears on the other hand; I could make a good argument are one of the worst 6 teams in the NFL. There are already rumors that Nagy is going to be fired before the seasons end and the injuries that the Bears have sustained on defense losing their best pass rusher in Khalil Mack, losing their best defensive tackle in Akiem Hicks, and most likely without their best safety in Eddy Jackson tells me that Detroit, even with backup Brian Hoyer (Goff is now questionable) may put up a few points. Andy Dalton will be starting for the Bears but it looks like their best wideout Allen Robinson will be out this game, and even though Dalton is less volatile than Fields, he certainly isn’t a top 25 quarterback in the league. The Lions are looking for their first win under a very fiery coach in Dan Campbell. Matt Nagy on the other hand loves to find ways to lose game. Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC. The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. I think the Lions win an ugly game here and get their first W of the year!
Lions +3 – 2 stars
6 pt teaser: Cowboys to -1.5 with Miami to +8 – 2 stars
What goes better with Thanksgiving than Horse Racing? Some may say nothing and I would happen to agree. We have two graded stakes races happening on Thanksgiving but this is the only Grade II. Check out my preview and picks below for the Fall City Stakes.
Red Smith Stakes
Race Information:
Track: Churchill Downs (Louisville, KY)
Event Grade: Grade II
Race: 11
Post Time: 4:22 PM
Length: 1 1/8 Furlongs
Purse: $500,000
Division: Fillies and Mares | 3 Years Old & Upward
FS2 – 11:30 AM – 5:00 PM EST, if not on FS2 check TVG
Field:
PP
HORSE
JOCKEY
TRAINER
A/S
WGT
M/L
1
Crystal Ball (KY)
T. Gaffalione
R. Brisset
4/F
121
7-2
2
Cheetara (CHI)
J. R. Laparoux
I. Correas
4/F
121
15-1
3
High Regard (KY)
R. Bejarano
V. H. Oilver
5/M
121
15-1
4
Envoutante (KY)
B. J. Hernandez Jr.
K. G. McPeek
4/F
121
7-2
5
Army Wife (KY)
J. Rosario
M. J. Maker
3/F
120
5-2
6
Bonny South (KY)
F. Geroux
B. H. Cox
4/F
121
9-5
7
Audrey’s Time (KY)
C. J. Lanerie
N. L. Pessin
4/F
121
15-1
Horse Preview:
(1) Crystal Ball, is a horse that should be competitive in this race given her past few starts. She’s off a 4th place finish in the G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes being beaten by Bonny South (3rd). In that race she was brushed at the start and got outkicked down the stretch. Before that race, she finished 2nd in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes and 3rd in the G3 Shuvee Stakes. She won her first three starts in 2021 then jumped up to run in a few Graded Stakes as previously mentioned. We’ll see if she can get redemption against Bonny South here.
(2) Cheetara came to the States earlier this year and has competed in four races. She’s off a win in an Allowance Optional Claiming race last month as a heavy favorite. The past two races she lengthened out a bit to a 1 1/16 and will do so again here running a 1 1/8. This horse will also have a step up in class which will be interesting to see how she fares.
(3) High Regard has gone winless in her seven starts this year. This five year old mare hasn’t looked great in any of her starts and I don’t really see a turn around here. She finished 6th in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes earlier this year running against Crystal Ball and Envoutante. She was outclassed by those horses last time and struggled in an AoC her last time out. This horse is a toss for me.
(4) Envoutante, hasn’t looked great as of late compared to 2020 and early 2021. She finished 5th in the G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes and 3rd in the G3 Locust Grove Stakes. Her last wins comes back in May of this year at Churchill in the Shawnee Stakes. She does have a G2 win to her name in last year’s Falls City Stakes where she ran a career-best 118 Equibase Speed Figure.
(5) Army Wife, is coming off a two month layoff after a 3rd place finish in the G1 Cotillion Stakes. Prior to that race, she finished 3rd in the G1 Alabama Stakes at the Spa. She does have two wins to her name capturing the G3 Iowa Stakes and G2 George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This horse has faced some steep competition in her last two races and looks good here with a slight step down in class.
(6) Bonny South, is the heavy morning line favorite in this race at 9-5. She’s off a 3rd place finish in the G1 G1 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes besting fellow entrants Crystal Ball (4th) and Envoutante (5th). That race was loaded with talent with Letruska and Dunbar Road running 1-2. Prior to that race she took 2nd in the G1 Personal Ensign Stakes and 5th in the G2 Delaware Handicap. Her only win came back in the G3 Baird Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland in April. Bonny South finished second to Envoutante in last year’s Falls City Stakes.
(7) Audrey’s Time, will give her first Graded Stakes a go here. She’s off a win in an AoC at Churchill last month. In her past few starts she has done at greater distances so this distance should suit here. However, I don’t see her being competitive her and having the ability to close on this field.
Race Preview:
Front Runner(s): Crystal Ball, Cheetara
Off the Pace/ Stalker(s): High Regard, Envoutante
Closer(s): Army Wife, Bonny South, Audrey’s Time
Picks:
WIN: (5) ARMY WIFE
EXACTA: 5/ 1, 6
Army Wife should be well rested and has a great jockey/ trainer combination. I like this distance here for Crystal Ball who has had success at Churchill in the past.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Time captioned below. Happy Thanks-Winning (we hope so anyways)! We have a HUGE show for you today! Chris Fallica from ESPN is here to join Kiev O’Neil to discuss a massive weekend in College Football! First, Kiev goes solo for NFL week 12 and breaks down every game with some leans and some plays. Then, Chris Fallica comes on and the guys get right into talking Thanksgiving food and holiday fun! Next, Chris and Kiev talk about some scenarios that Alabama might make the college football playoff with 2 losses to bust their tickets. Then, the guys talk about some huge college football games from Thursday on with some leans and some FREE PLAYS. After that, Kiev give out his Refuse To Lose teaser that has been losing lately at 5-6 this year yet was 11-6 last year. Finally, Kiev gets into some sharp line movements to close out the show!
0 – 3:35 – Intro
3:35 – 39:35 – NFL Week 12
39:35 – 1:51:50 – Chris Fallica discusses College Football and Refuse To Lose Teaser
1:51:50 – 1:53:30 – The Sharp Side of The Force
NFL: Bears vs Lions – Raiders vs Cowboys – Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis and more!
NCAA: Ole Miss vs Mississippi State – Ohio State vs Michigan – Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State – Colorado vs Utah – and more!
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